While I write a lot about the value of hotel loyalty programs, I’ve never written a post specifically about the best way to go about redeeming Marriott Bonvoy points, and how I use my points. So just as I wrote a guide to redeeming Hilton Honors points, in this post I wanted to share strategies for redeeming Marriott Bonvoy points for maximum value.
In this post:
Basics of redeeming Marriott Bonvoy points
Let’s start by talking about the basics of redeeming Marriott Bonvoy points — how much should you expect to pay for free nights, are there blackout dates, how much are Marriott Bonvoy points worth, etc.?
I value Marriott Bonvoy points at 0.7 cents each
Personally I value Marriott Bonvoy points at 0.7 cents each. There’s no science to that, but rather I think that’s a fair, conservative valuation for what the points are worth. In other words, I won’t redeem my Bonvoy points unless I can get well over 0.7 cents of value per point. This also accounts for the ability to convert Marriott Bonvoy points into airline miles at a fair ratio.
It’s important to come up with a points valuation for yourself (it can be different than mine), so that you can decide whether to pay cash or redeem points for a hotel stay.
Marriott Bonvoy has dynamic award pricing
Nowadays Marriott Bonvoy no longer has an award chart, but rather has dynamic award pricing. That means that the number of points required for a free night stay can vary based on how much a stay would cost in cash. This was only introduced in 2022, and the policy is being rolled out somewhat slowly.
For 2022, there are still some limits on how much a hotel stay can cost with points, while starting in 2023, there will no longer be a minimum of maximum number of points required for a hotel stay.
As a general rule of thumb, you can expect that most properties cost somewhere between 5,000 and 120,000 points per night.
Marriott Bonvoy award blackout dates policy
Every hotel loyalty program has a different policy when it comes to blackout dates. Generally speaking, hotel loyalty programs let you redeem points for a stay as long as a standard room is available for sale. Unfortunately in the case of Marriott Bonvoy, there is a limited blackout dates policy.
What does that mean? Marriott Bonvoy doesn’t have blackout dates, but there are some capacity controls at times. On most days, most Marriott properties will make all standard rooms available for awards, though on a limited number of days, hotels can limit the number of standard rooms available for awards.
In other words, it’s possible that a hotel could have standard rooms available for sale if paying cash, but not with points. That should be the exception rather than the norm, though.
Marriott Bonvoy offers a fifth night free on awards
If you want to maximize your Marriott Bonvoy points, I recommend redeeming for hotel stays in five night increments. Marriott has a fifth night free policy for awards, or more accurately, it’s now called “Stay for 5, Pay for 4.”
When you redeem points for five consecutive nights at a property, you’ll only be charged the points for four nights. The cheapest of the five nights won’t be charged. You can use this back-to-back for multiple stays, so if you stay 10 nights, you could get two nights free.
Marriott Bonvoy points can be converted into airline miles
One cool thing about Marriott Bonvoy is that points can efficiently be converted into airline miles. Marriott Bonvoy has over three dozen airline partners, and points transfer at a 3:1 ratio. You get a bonus of 5,000 miles for every 60,000 Bonvoy points you transfer, meaning that 60,000 Bonvoy points will typically get you 25,000 airline miles.
While this isn’t how I’d personally generally prefer to use my points, it’s not a bad use of points if you’re struggling to get good value with them otherwise.
Marriott Cash & Points usually isn’t a great value
Marriott has a Cash & Points program, whereby (as the name suggests) you can redeem part cash and part points toward a hotel stay. This comes with significantly more capacity controls than standard free night award redemptions, so it won’t always be available.
To see if Cash & Points is available, just search for regular free night award availability, and if it’s available, you’ll see it listed as an option. You can crunch the numbers with each redemption, but more often than not I find that this doesn’t represent a great value.
For example, take the Duxton Reserve Singapore, where the rate is either 43,000 Bonvoy points or 21,500 Bonvoy points plus 170 SGD (~122 USD). You’re essentially paying $122 to save 21,500 Bonvoy points, which is a decent deal, since I value those points at $150.
The catch? This isn’t a great redemption to begin with, since the revenue cost would only be $294.
As another example, take the Sheraton Grand Dubai, where the rate is either 35,000 Bonvoy points or 17,500 Bonvoy points plus 202 AED (~55 USD). You’re essentially paying $55 to save 17,500 Bonvoy points, which is a good deal, since I value those points at $123.
The catch? This also isn’t a great redemption to begin with, since the revenue cost would only be $131.
Essentially you’ll typically find that Cash & Points is sometimes a good deal compared to outright redeeming points, though often redeeming points at these hotels isn’t a good deal to begin with, since the revenue rates are typically low. Why? Cash & Points is capacity controlled, and typically only available when the hotel isn’t forecasted to be full, so those are also situations where cash rates might not be that high.
The Marriott Bonvoy award calendar is useful
I find Marriott Bonvoy’s calendar feature to be incredibly useful for deciding when it’s a good deal to redeem points. When you search a destination, just select the “Flexible Dates” tab, and then you can choose the month where you want to search availability.
You’ll then see award pricing for an entire month at a time, which is an easy way to see when you can get the best deal.
You can then also switch between the award calendar and the pricing calendar, to see when you’re going to get the best value. For example, in the case of the hotel I was searching, it’s interesting how both October 25 and November 1 cost 57,000 Bonvoy points, while when paying cash they cost 517 EUR and 412 EUR, respectively. Obviously you’d get a better deal redeeming points with the former option, in terms of value per point.
Earn Marriott Bonvoy elite status to get more value
When you do redeem points, you’ll of course want to get as much value on-property as possible. That’s where having elite status really helps, especially if you can earn Bonvoy Platinum Elite, Titanium Elite, or Ambassador Elite status. This is where benefits really start to get valuable, in terms of getting suite upgrades, receiving complimentary breakfast, and having access to Choice Benefits.
Keep in mind that Marriott Bonvoy status is pretty easy to earn in the United States with credit cards. You can easily earn up to 40 elite nights per year just for having two co-branded Marriott credit cards, including the Marriott Bonvoy Business® American Express® Card (review) (15 nights) and Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant™ American Express® Card (review) (25 nights).
Pool Marriott Bonvoy points to maximize value
While not as generous as the policies of Hilton Honors or World of Hyatt, Marriott Bonvoy does let you pool points between accounts. You can do this with any other member, though you’re limited to transferring up to 100,000 points per calendar year, and you can receive up to 500,000 points per calendar year.
The best uses of Marriott Bonvoy points
With the basics of redeeming Marriott Bonvoy points out of the way, how do you get the most value from your points? Unfortunately this isn’t nearly as straightforward as it used to be. Back in the day when Marriott had a published award chart, it was easy to extract outsized value by redeeming at hotels during peak periods.
That isn’t so simple anymore, since Marriott now has dynamic award pricing, and pricing will vary even more starting in 2023.
I continue to redeem my Marriott Bonvoy points for free night redemptions in standard rooms, ideally for five nights (so one night is free). There’s no longer a consistent sweet spot in the way that there was before, but rather I’m finding some value with Bonvoy points for all kinds of redemptions.
Here’s how I generally think about it:
- The most luxurious hotels during the highest demand periods generally still represent a great use of points, at least compared to the cash cost; there are still some limits on Marriott Bonvoy’s award pricing
- Beyond that, you’ll often find the best value using points in markets during quieter periods, where the cash rates don’t shift hugely by season; this comes down to the economics of Marriott Bonvoy, as the program pays a lot less when members redeem points at properties that aren’t close to being full
Let me use the St. Regis Aspen as an example, as this is a popular ski resort. In the peak of winter, I can find a five night award stay for 478,000 Bonvoy points (including one free night), which comes out to an average of 95,600 Bonvoy points per night (which I value at ~$669).
The cash rate, meanwhile, would be over $1,600 per night. Suffice it to say that redeeming points is quite a good value.
Another aspirational destination is the Maldives, so let’s also use the Ritz-Carlton Maldives as an example. During a busy period I can find a five night award stay for 468,000 Bonvoy points (including one free night), which comes out to an average of 93,600 Bonvoy points per night (which I value at ~$655).
The cash rate, meanwhile, would be over $2,250 per night, so that’s an amazing use of points.
So for the time being luxury properties still do represent the best value, though it’ll be interesting to see how that evolves in 2023 and beyond.
Bottom line
Marriott Bonvoy is a popular hotel loyalty program, which I’ve been participating in for well over a decade. While the program isn’t nearly as useful as back in the day, there’s still value to be had.
Nowadays Marriott Bonvoy has dynamic award pricing, so there’s no longer an award chart. However, until 2023 many hotels still have a cap on how many points can be charged, so pricing isn’t totally outrageous, for the most part.
I continue to find the most value with Marriott Bonvoy to be booking luxury hotels in standard rooms for periods of five nights, especially hotels that would otherwise retail for $1,500+ per night.
What has your experience been with redeeming Marriott Bonvoy points?
Used 380K points for the W Maldives which for the same nights were $1,300 per night. Also, being Platinum, used the free breakfast perk to save an additional $120 per day ($90 plus plus).
The program basically sucks now. I'm Titanium. Would be Ambassador for the past 5 years but because I'm self employed I don't have $20K USD or $27K CAD to blow on hotels. I'm lifetime Platinum but even that isn't enough to keep me loyal. Agents in call centres are near braindead and have NO global knowledge and cannot spell or read. Speaks volumes about the US education system. The new application is a joke and...
The program basically sucks now. I'm Titanium. Would be Ambassador for the past 5 years but because I'm self employed I don't have $20K USD or $27K CAD to blow on hotels. I'm lifetime Platinum but even that isn't enough to keep me loyal. Agents in call centres are near braindead and have NO global knowledge and cannot spell or read. Speaks volumes about the US education system. The new application is a joke and each timeI use it I want to throw my phone at the wall. Time for heads at the top to roll at Marriott.
I agree that cash and points aren't usually a good deal, but they are often enough to do the math on them.
I recently stayed at the Lisbon Marriott where points was a pretty good deal (just marginally more than 0.7 cents a point), but with points and cash it became a good deal (just under a penny a point), and for the 15th of September a very good deal slightly over a penny...
I agree that cash and points aren't usually a good deal, but they are often enough to do the math on them.
I recently stayed at the Lisbon Marriott where points was a pretty good deal (just marginally more than 0.7 cents a point), but with points and cash it became a good deal (just under a penny a point), and for the 15th of September a very good deal slightly over a penny a point.
99% of the time I'll either use points, cash, or another hotel, but Ill watch for that 1%.
Hello
The get the 5 night free do we have to book 4 nights same reservation
Consecutive ? Or it can be different days ?
Consecutive
Yes consecutive nights in one reservation with points only. Meaning you can't mix a free night cert with 4 night on points, you won't get the 5th night free that way.
I am very surprised by the downplaying of the converting Marriott points to airline miles.
I am a Marriott Lifetime Titanium Elite and yes I have had some great stays using points Marriott points. No argument there.
What I value more is the airline transfer option.
I made at least two trips on Emirates First using Japan Airlines. My first time in Korean First was using a points transfer. Great values unlocked transferring to Asiana....
I am very surprised by the downplaying of the converting Marriott points to airline miles.
I am a Marriott Lifetime Titanium Elite and yes I have had some great stays using points Marriott points. No argument there.
What I value more is the airline transfer option.
I made at least two trips on Emirates First using Japan Airlines. My first time in Korean First was using a points transfer. Great values unlocked transferring to Asiana. I would guess and say 15-20 times i have used Alaska miles to and from Asia to the USA. Now mostly JAL but many times on Cathay Pacific. All of those miles came form Marriott transfers.
If i had to choose between a five day luxury stay for 500,000 points or converting those points into about 200,000 miles on airlines are hard to get otherwise I would take the point transfer without hesitation.
I booked a 2 bedroom Villa at the Ritz Carlton Maldives for a werk at 600ish points plus 2.4k Per night. The Villa was around 11.5K per night in cash.
Actually I don't value the cash value of the points. I do the calculation. When I am booking the hotel, I check to see the cash price and how many points they want. I know the hotel(s) and locations that I usually redeem for at a good value meaning the price vs the number of points is good. If it is much less then that I pay for it. The fifth night free I don't...
Actually I don't value the cash value of the points. I do the calculation. When I am booking the hotel, I check to see the cash price and how many points they want. I know the hotel(s) and locations that I usually redeem for at a good value meaning the price vs the number of points is good. If it is much less then that I pay for it. The fifth night free I don't count because no matter where I redeem I would be getting it. I think it is a better value to redeem for hotel stays rather than converting to airline points. Some of the hotels valued at $1,000-1,200 per night are just 85,000 points, but a business class ticket would could easily cost more. If your dates are flexible, I agree the award calendar is useful. Your comment is rude about pooling points. Actually even if it is not as generous as Hilton or Hyatt the value of their points is different and it is much better than airlines which don't allow it or charge you to do so.
Good Lord, WHAT is that purple chandelier thing in the photo on the main page? Looks like Ghostbusters dumped ectoplasm in the hotel lobby.
How did you get to your value of 0.7 cents/point? I totally understand you want to convey that a lot of it is fudging/personal preferences/stuff that's hard to measure numerically, and that we should assign a value ourselves - none of this is blogworthy (especially not the last part), but why don't you just tell us how you got to your value of 0.7? That would be far more valuable to readers than a lot of this other stuff.
I think that this blog is great. I also think some perspective from a more average traveler would be helpful. Are most readers of your blog spending 400-500k award points on a stay? Take me for example I’m lifetime gold, both business and personal cards, but I only earn 100-200k points a year. Keep up the great work.
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT !!!
Mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are worth exactly the same !!!
Okay, managed to fix the botched html tag in this VERY IMPORTANT comment.
Please see the cleaner comment as the third response to my original comment under
DCS Diamond
September 11, 2022, 5:50 pm
G'day!
(posted again to (hopefully) fixed an unterminated html tag for "bold")
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT !!!
Mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are worth exactly the same !!!
Well, yes, there is actually exact science to it....
(posted again to (hopefully) fixed an unterminated html tag for "bold")
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT !!!
Mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are worth exactly the same !!!
Well, yes, there is actually exact science to it. I can calculate analytically the values of the major hotel points currencies based solely on each program's base earn rate [BER] that includes bonus points from the programs' co-branded CCs that have about the same annual fee. Analytically means using a mathematical equation and here's the equation:
Value of Point = 15.649 * BER^(-0.993)
where 'BER^(-0.993)' means a program's base earn rate (BER) raised to the power of -0.993
Class is now in session
Using data for ONLY the top elite status in each hotel program, here are the respective base earn rates [BER], with bonus points from comparable co-branded CCs included (will show in the future that this is a must to maximize accuracy):
- Hilton Honors Diamond: 20x + 12x (AMEX Surpass, AF: $95) = 32 HH points/$
- World of Hyatt Globalist: 6.5x + 4x (Chase WoH visa, AF: $95) = 10.5 WoH points/$
- Marriott BONVoY Titanium: 17.5x + 6x (Chase Boundless, AF: $95) = 23.5x BONVoY points/$
- IHG Diamond: 20x + 10x (IHG Club Premier MC, AF: $99) = 30 IHG points/$
- Radisson Rewards Plat: 35x + 10x (Radisson Rewards Premier Visa, AF: $75) = 45 Radisson points/$
Now let's crunch the numbers and calculate the value of each hotel points currency analytically using the equation:
Value of Point = 15.649 * BER^(-0.993)
1. Value of a Hilton point = 15.645 * 32^(-0.993) = 0.50</b cent/HH point
2. Value of a Hyatt point = 15.645 * 10.5^(-0.993) = 1.51 cents/WoH point
3. Value of a IHG point = 15.645 * 30.0^(-0.993) = 0.53 cent/IHG point
4. Value of a Marriott point = 15.645 * 23.5^(-0.993) = 0.68 cent/BONVoY point
5. Value of a Radisson point = 15.645 * 45.0^(-0.993) = 0.36 cent/Radisson point
I will provide a mathematical derivation and validation of the equation I used to calculate analytically and exactly the nominal value of each hotel points currency above. For now I will just summarize the significance of the fact that such an equation exists:
1. It shows that values of hotelpoints currencies that are constantly peddled by self-anointed "travel gurus" are determined by the earn side rather than by the (variable) redemption side of points currencies that everyone obsesses with. It is, however, possible to determine the values of points by doing many, many dummy standard award bookings and then averaging the resulting redemption values over all bookings. It is clearly much easier to simply analytically calculate the values!
2. The "pageantry" with which various travel blogs unveil their values of points currencies, including the assumptions that each blogger purportedly makes to arrive at the values, is just unnecessary fluff. Hotel points currencies can be calculated exactly based on "reliable" values of base earn rates.
3. As one would expect and I will demonstrate, averaging values of hotel points currencies published by various bloggers takes out the "noise" to yield mean values of hotel points currencies that are virtually identical to those I just analytically calculated above.
4. The analytical equation above for the value of the hotel points currencies can be generalized as
Value of Point = RoD * BER^(-0.993)
where RoD, short for "Return on the Dollar " spent on a hotel stay (some, e.g., @Gary Leff, call it a "rebate"), is a constant and the mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are "worth" exactly the same. How so?
Rearranging the equation, yields:
ROD = Value of Point * BER^(0.993)
since 0.993 is essentially = 1, and remembering the BER stand 'base earn rate'
RoD or "rebate" = Value of Point * base earn rate = 15.645 or ~16% across all hotel programs!
Let's do it explicitly using the values of points calculated above:
RoD or "rebate" for Hilton = 0.5 cent/HH * 32 HH/$ = 16%
RoD or "rebate" for Hyatt = 1.51 cents/WoH * 10.5 WoH/$ = ~16%
RoD or "rebate" for IHG = 0.53 cent/IHG * 30 IHG/$ = ~16%
RoD or "rebate" for Marriott = 0.68 cent/BVY * 23.5 BVY/$ = ~16%
RoD or "rebate" for Radisson = 0.36 cent/RAD * 45 RAD/$ = ~16%
See that, @Gary Leff? I have analytically calculated what are the most accurate values of the various hotel points currencies using an equation derived on the assumption that all hotel point currencies are "worth" exactly the same when adjusted for differences in base earn rates (derivation and validation to be provided on my website in the near future), and the math has validated the assumption! The Return on the Dollar (RoD) or "rebate" (Gary Leff) is exactly the same for all programs, proving that:
0.5cent/HH point = 1.5cents/WoH point = 0.7cent/BONVoY point = 0.5cent/IHG point = 0.4cent/Radisson point
The equality sign ("=") between the items above is for real (like 1 USD = 0.86 Pound sterling). Those points currencies are "worth" exactly the same, meaning that they will buy you exactly the same thing in the respective programs.
Stay tuned for the complete treatise or magnum opus that will forever demystify the universally misunderstood values of hotel points currencies (I am yet to model airline miles or bank points to know whether they too are as "well behaved" as are hotel points currencies).
Any questions?
Class dismissed!
</b
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT !!!
Mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are worth exactly the same !!!
Well, yes, there is actually exact science to it. I can calculate analytically the values of the major hotel points...
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT !!!
Mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are worth exactly the same !!!
Well, yes, there is actually exact science to it. I can calculate analytically the values of the major hotel points currencies based solely on each program's base earn rate [BER] that includes bonus points from the programs' co-branded CCs that have about the same annual fee. Analytically means using a mathematical equation and here's the equation:
Value of Point = 15.649 * BER^(-0.993)
where 'BER^(-0.993)' means a program's base earn rate (BER) raised to the power of -0.993
Class is now in session
Using data for ONLY the top elite status in each hotel program, here are the respective base earn rates [BER], with bonus points from comparable co-branded CCs included (will show in the future that this is a must to maximize accuracy):
- Hilton Honors Diamond: 20x + 12x (AMEX Surpass, AF: $95) = 32 HH points/$
- World of Hyatt Globalist: 6.5x + 4x (Chase WoH visa, AF: $95) = 10.5 WoH points/$
- Marriott BONVoY Titanium: 17.5x + 6x (Chase Boundless, AF: $95) = 23.5x BONVoY points/$
- IHG Diamond: 20x + 10x (IHG Club Premier MC, AF: $99) = 30 IHG points/$
- Radisson Rewards Plat: 35x + 10x (Radisson Rewards Premier Visa, AF: $75) = 45 Radisson points/$
Now let's crunch the numbers and calculate the value of each hotel points currency analytically using the equation:
Value of Point = 15.649 * BER^(-0.993)
1. Value of a Hilton point = 15.645 * 32^(-0.993) = 0.50</b cent/HH point
2. Value of a Hyatt point = 15.645 * 10.5^(-0.993) = 1.51</b cents/WoH point
3. Value of a IHG point = 15.645 * 30.0^(-0.993) = 0.53</b cent/IHG point
4. Value of a Marriott point = 15.645 * 23.5^(-0.993) = 0.68</b cent/BONVoY point
5. Value of a Radisson point = 15.645 * 45.0^(-0.993) = 0.36</b cent/Radisson point
I will provide a mathematical derivation and validation of the equation I used to calculate analytically and exactly the nominal value of each hotel points currency above. For now I will just summarize the significance of the fact that such an equation exists:
1. It shows that values of hotelpoints currencies that are constantly peddled by self-anointed "travel gurus" are determined by the earn side rather than by the (variable) redemption side of points currencies that everyone obsesses with. It is, however, possible to determine the values of points by doing many, many dummy standard award bookings and then averaging the resulting redemption values over all bookings. It is clearly much easier to simply analytically calculate the values!
2. The "pageantry" with which various travel blogs unveil their values of points currencies, including the assumptions that each blogger purportedly makes to arrive at the values, is just unnecessary fluff. Hotel points currencies can be calculated exactly based on "reliable" values of base earn rates.
3. As one would expect and I will demonstrate, averaging values of hotel points currencies published by various bloggers takes out the "noise" to yield mean values of hotel points currencies that are virtually identical to those I just analytically calculated above.
4. The analytical equation above for the value of the hotel points currencies can be generalized as
Value of Point = RoD * BER^(-0.993)
where RoD, short for "Return on the Dollar " spent on a hotel stay (some, e.g., @Gary Leff, call it a "rebate"), is a constant and the mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are "worth" exactly the same. How so?
Rearranging the equation, yields:
ROD = Value of Point * BER^(0.993)
since 0.993 is essentially = 1, and remembering the BER stand 'base earn rate'
RoD or "rebate" = Value of Point * base earn rate = 15.645 or ~16% across all hotel programs!
Let's do it explicitly using the values of points calculated above:
RoD or "rebate" for Hilton = 0.5 cent/HH * 32 HH/$ = 16%
RoD or "rebate" for Hyatt = 1.51 cents/WoH * 10.5 WoH/$ = ~16%
RoD or "rebate" for IHG = 0.53 cent/IHG * 30 IHG/$ = ~16%
RoD or "rebate" for Marriott = 0.68 cent/BVY * 23.5 BVY/$ = ~16%
RoD or "rebate" for Radisson = 0.36 cent/RAD * 45 RAD/$ = ~16%
See that, @Gary Leff? I have analytically calculated what are the most accurate values of the various hotel points currencies using an equation derived on the assumption that all hotel point currencies are "worth" exactly the same when adjusted for differences in base earn rates (derivation and validation to be provided on my website in the near future), and the math has validated the assumption! The Return on the Dollar (RoD) or "rebate" (Gary Leff) is exactly the same for all programs, proving that:
0.5cent/HH point = 1.5cents/WoH point = 0.7cent/BONVoY point = 0.5cent/IHG point = 0.4cent/Radisson point
The equality sign ("=") between the items above is for real (like 1 USD = 0.86 Pound sterling). Those points currencies are "worth" exactly the same, meaning that they will buy you exactly the same thing in the respective programs.
Stay tuned for the complete treatise or magnum opus that will forever demystify the universally misunderstood values of hotel points currencies (I am yet to model airline miles or bank points to know whether they too are as "well behaved" as are hotel points currencies).
Any questions?
Class dismissed!
Unbold!
Oops! Not fixed. Live with the it, as the comment is clear otherwise.
Still have more strike! Let's try again...
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT !!!
Mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are worth exactly the same !!!
Well, yes, there is actually exact science to it. I can calculate analytically...
Still have more strike! Let's try again...
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALL ABOUT IT !!!
Mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are worth exactly the same !!!
Well, yes, there is actually exact science to it. I can calculate analytically the values of the major hotel points currencies based solely on each program's base earn rate [BER] that includes bonus points from the programs' co-branded CCs that have about the same annual fee. Analytically means using a mathematical equation and here's the equation:
Value of Point = 15.649 * BER^(-0.993)
where 'BER^(-0.993)' means a program's base earn rate (BER) raised to the power of -0.993
Class is now in session
Using data for ONLY the top elite status in each hotel program, here are the respective base earn rates [BER], with bonus points from comparable co-branded CCs included (will show in the future that this is a must to maximize accuracy):
- Hilton Honors Diamond: 20x + 12x (AMEX Surpass, AF: $95) = 32 HH points/$
- World of Hyatt Globalist: 6.5x + 4x (Chase WoH visa, AF: $95) = 10.5 WoH points/$
- Marriott BONVoY Titanium: 17.5x + 6x (Chase Boundless, AF: $95) = 23.5x BONVoY points/$
- IHG Diamond: 20x + 10x (IHG Club Premier MC, AF: $99) = 30 IHG points/$
- Radisson Rewards Plat: 35x + 10x (Radisson Rewards Premier Visa, AF: $75) = 45 Radisson points/$
Now let's crunch the numbers and calculate the value of each hotel points currency analytically using the equation:
Value of Point = 15.649 * BER^(-0.993)
1. Value of a Hilton point = 15.645 * 32^(-0.993) = 0.50 cent/HH point
2. Value of a Hyatt point = 15.645 * 10.5^(-0.993) = 1.51 cents/WoH point
3. Value of a IHG point = 15.645 * 30.0^(-0.993) = 0.53 cent/IHG point
4. Value of a Marriott point = 15.645 * 23.5^(-0.993) = 0.68 cent/BONVoY point
5. Value of a Radisson point = 15.645 * 45.0^(-0.993) = 0.36 cent/Radisson point
I will provide a mathematical derivation and validation of the equation I used to calculate analytically and exactly the nominal value of each hotel points currency above. For now I will just summarize the significance of the fact that such an equation exists:
1. It shows that values of hotelpoints currencies that are constantly peddled by self-anointed "travel gurus" are determined by the earn side rather than by the (variable) redemption side of points currencies that everyone obsesses with. It is, however, possible to determine the values of points by doing many, many dummy standard award bookings and then averaging the resulting redemption values over all bookings. It is clearly much easier to simply analytically calculate the values!
2. The "pageantry" with which various travel blogs unveil their values of points currencies, including the assumptions that each blogger purportedly makes to arrive at the values, is just unnecessary fluff. Hotel points currencies can be calculated exactly based on "reliable" values of base earn rates.
3. As one would expect and I will demonstrate, averaging values of hotel points currencies published by various bloggers takes out the "noise" to yield mean values of hotel points currencies that are virtually identical to those I just analytically calculated above.
4. The analytical equation above for the value of the hotel points currencies can be generalized as
Value of Point = RoD * BER^(-0.993)
where RoD, short for "Return on the Dollar " spent on a hotel stay (some, e.g., @Gary Leff, call it a "rebate"), is a constant and the mathematical proof that all hotel points currencies are "worth" exactly the same. How so?
Rearranging the equation, yields:
ROD = Value of Point * BER^(0.993)
since 0.993 is essentially = 1, and remembering the BER stand 'base earn rate'
RoD or "rebate" = Value of Point * base earn rate = 15.645 or ~16% across all hotel programs!
Let's do it explicitly using the values of points calculated above:
RoD or "rebate" for Hilton = 0.5 cent/HH * 32 HH/$ = 16%
RoD or "rebate" for Hyatt = 1.51 cents/WoH * 10.5 WoH/$ = ~16%
RoD or "rebate" for IHG = 0.53 cent/IHG * 30 IHG/$ = ~16%
RoD or "rebate" for Marriott = 0.68 cent/BVY * 23.5 BVY/$ = ~16%
RoD or "rebate" for Radisson = 0.36 cent/RAD * 45 RAD/$ = ~16%
See that, @Gary Leff? I have analytically calculated what are the most accurate values of the various hotel points currencies using an equation derived on the basis that all hotel point currencies are "worth" exactly the same when adjusted for differences in base earn rates (derivation and validation to be provided on my website in the near future), and the math has supported the assumption. The Return on the Dollar (RoD) or "rebate" (Gary Leff) is exactly the same for all, proving that:
0.5cent/HH point = 1.5cents/WoH point = 0.7cent/BONVoY point = 0.5cent/IHG point = 0.4cent/Radisson point
The equality sign ("=") between the items above is for real (like 1 USD = 0.86 Pound sterling). Those points currencies are "worth" exactly the same, meaning that they will buy you exactly the same thing in the respective programs.
Stay tuned for the complete treatise or magnum opus that will forever demystify the universally misunderstood values of hotel points currencies (I am yet to model airline miles or bank points to know whether they too are as "well behaved" as are hotel points currencies).
Class dismissed!
My adult twin daughters both earned 5 free nights for the now expired Chase Bonvoy SUB. Strangely, one received one free night but the other was required to use all 5 certificates for the same 5 day stay.
I am afraid to contest, as I believe the rules state 5nights/pay for 4 is not included with the 5 free night certificates.
You're correct, 5th night free unfortunately does not apply to FNAs, only points.
Redeemed 62000 (point savers) per night points for St Regis Venice Superior Deluxe King in Apr 2023 - cash rate 921 EUR per night.