In order to diversify your rewards and avoid devaluations, I recommend earning transferable points currencies whenever possible. These points are racked up with programs like Amex Membership Rewards, Bilt Rewards, Chase Ultimate Rewards, Citi ThankYou, etc.
A large part of the value from these currencies comes from their flexibility. Rather than being committed to a single rewards program that could devalue without notice, you have the opportunity to transfer your points to many other programs, typically instantly. This is fantastic flexibility that leaves you best positioned for redemptions.
While my general advice is to avoid transferring these points without a specific use in mind, are there situations where a speculative transfer is worth it? I’d like to discuss that in more detail in this post…
Avoid transferring points unless you have a reason to do so
Let me start by saying that in general you shouldn’t move your transferable points currencies to a specific partner until you’re ready to book your ticket. Assuming points transfers are generally instant (and I make an effort to use programs where that’s the case — admittedly there are sometimes glitches), I typically only transfer points minutes before I’m ready to book an award ticket.
Your points lose flexibility the second you move them from a transferable points currency to a specific airline or hotel points currency, since you can’t move them back.
For example, say you have Chase Ultimate Rewards points. While Chase has several great partners, you have so much more flexibility when you have the points with Chase, where you can then transfer them to Air Canada Aeroplan for amazing flight redemptions, or World of Hyatt for amazing hotel redemptions. The second you transfer them to either program, you lose the flexibility of making any other type of redemption.
So I absolutely recommend not moving your transferable points to a partner program until you’re ready to book, with one major exception…
My approach to speculative points transfers
One of the great things about transferable points currencies is that we sometimes see transfer bonuses offered. For partners with “efficient” transfer ratios, these bonuses are most commonly in the range of 15-30%.
Most major transferable points currencies offer a bonus to at least some partners a few times per year, and this could be a great way to maximize points. After all, if you’re going to redeem through a program like Air France-KLM Flying Blue, wouldn’t you rather use fewer transferable points?
So, how should you go about balancing maintaining the flexibility of transferable points currencies while also taking advantage of transfer bonuses without a specific redemption in mind? As someone who both earns and redeems a lot of points, here’s my philosophy:
- There are some programs that I constantly redeem points through, like Air Canada Aeroplan, Air France-KLM Flying Club, Avianca Lifemiles, British Airways Club, etc.; if there’s a transfer bonus and my balance of points with the program is low, I’ll usually take advantage of a speculative bonus, since I’m confident I’d redeem those points in the near future anyway
- I try to consider how often we see transfer bonuses to a particular program as well, and time it accordingly; for example, I expect to see a bonus from a major currency to Air France-KLM Flying Blue and Avianca Lifemiles at least every few months, while transfer bonuses to Air Canada Aeroplan and British Airways Club are rarer
- I also try to be strategic about which transferable points currency I transfer points from, based on my anticipated future points needs and redemption plans; each currency has different partner redemption sweet spots, so I try to think through that
- I prefer to make speculative transfers to programs where there are many good uses of points, rather than just one single sweet spot, since that could be devalued before I have the chance to book
- When there’s a transfer bonus that I plan to take advantage of, by default I usually transfer enough points for two premium one-way tickets to where I’d probably consider traveling to
Obviously I don’t have a crystal ball and can’t perfectly predict my future travels, but I find that taking advantage of transferable points currencies has suited me well. As a general rule of thumb:
- I’ll take advantage of an Amex Membership Rewards to Air Canada Aeroplan transfer bonus whenever it’s available, assuming my Aeroplan points balance is low
- I’ll take advantage of a Capital One or Citi ThankYou to Air France-KLM Flying Blue or Avianca Lifemiles transfer bonus whenever it’s available, assuming my Flying Blue or Lifemiles mileage balance is low
Let me also emphasize that I’ve been engaged in the miles & points thing for a very long time, and have a good sense of my travel patterns, historical program devaluations, etc.
If you’re new to miles & points and have just racked up 100K points for the first time with a transferable points currency, absolutely don’t take advantage of a speculative transfer bonus, especially if you’re not 100% sure what you’re doing. You’ll be much better suited by having flexibility than taking advantage of a bonus to a specific program.
Bottom line
Transferable points currencies give you lots of flexibility, which is invaluable when it’s time to book the award you’re looking for. Whenever possible, I’d recommend only transferring points when you’re ready to book. The one exception is when there are transfer bonuses, in which case I think a speculative transfer could make sense.
However, I’d only recommend a speculative transfer if it’s a program you frequently redeem through, and if it’s one where your points balance is low.
What’s your take on speculative points transfers? Do you ever take advantage of them?
I would say if you have under 1mm total transferable points the idea of speculatively transferring is risky at best.
If you have over 1m transferable points, a speculative transfer to a program that you use, on average, 1 or more times per year could be a good idea.
For me I can see doing speculative transfers to FB, Aeroplan, Avios and Virgin. Hard to imagine doing a speculative transfer anywhere else.
I know some went all-in for that JAL promotion, and some for Flying Blue, too, but, Ben’s right, for the most part: “you shouldn’t move your transferable points currencies to a specific partner until you’re ready to book your ticket.” And, also, please ensure that what you found isn’t a phantom (like, some airlines are notorious for such errors... *staring at Alaska*)
Don’t speculate on Avianca Lifemiles anymore. Business awards are far too thin consistently.
@ lucky While not necessarily speculative, I may be canceling my only Citi card when my AF comes up early next year. If I do, I will be definitely transferring those points out beforehand to some program that I can make use of them!
Do you count Bonvoy points as a transferrable points currency, or do you feel they're primarily a hotel program? I feel they are underrated as a way to acquire MileagePlus miles.
@ ChrisDD -- Technically they certainly are, but in practice I have a hard time viewing them that way, at least in a traditional sense. The issue is that there's no way to efficiently earn Bonvoy points through everyday credit card spending. If you ask me, that makes it really hard to actually rack up lots of these rewards, and that makes it different than points with Amex, Chase, Citi, etc.
Agree. I took advantage of transferring Bonvoy to MileagePlus when they were running the extra 10k promotion. Took about 3 months to receive the promo miles fwiw.
I understand you frequently use Flying Blue and Lifemiles, but do you really to speculatively transfer to these two programs? With Flying Blue, nearly every month or two there is a transfer bonus offer from one of the transferrable currency programs, so no speculative transfer seems necessary. Lifemiles runs a promotion to sell its miles nearly every couple of months and transfer bonuses tend to be small from Capital One or Citi, that makes transfers...
I understand you frequently use Flying Blue and Lifemiles, but do you really to speculatively transfer to these two programs? With Flying Blue, nearly every month or two there is a transfer bonus offer from one of the transferrable currency programs, so no speculative transfer seems necessary. Lifemiles runs a promotion to sell its miles nearly every couple of months and transfer bonuses tend to be small from Capital One or Citi, that makes transfers unnecessary, and costly, especially from Citi as its points can be transferred to AA, a much more valuable mileage currency than Lifemiles.
@ Tony -- In the case of Flying Blue, I absolutely do. For example, you say that almost every month or two there's a bonus to Flying Blue. That doesn't match my experience. Between the beginning of November 2025 and the end of April 2026 (a full six months), none of the major points currencies offered a bonus on Flying Blue transfers, best I can tell.
I had actually forgotten to make a speculative transfer...
@ Tony -- In the case of Flying Blue, I absolutely do. For example, you say that almost every month or two there's a bonus to Flying Blue. That doesn't match my experience. Between the beginning of November 2025 and the end of April 2026 (a full six months), none of the major points currencies offered a bonus on Flying Blue transfers, best I can tell.
I had actually forgotten to make a speculative transfer prior to that, and then had to make several Flying Blue transatlantic redemptions with just 1:1 transfers. As soon as we saw a transfer bonus again in May, I immediately moved over a huge chunk of points.