The 777X is Boeing’s new flagship aircraft. While the jet was initially supposed to enter commercial service in 2020, that timeline has been pushed back considerably, and officially the plane is now supposed to enter service as of 2025.
That’s right around the corner, so I wanted to talk about that timeline a bit more in this post — could we actually see this plane enter service next year? Or is that a best case scenario, and largely unrealistic?
In this post:
The basics of the Boeing 777X
For those not familiar, the Boeing 777X is Boeing’s newest version of the 777. It will come in two variants — the 777-8 and 777-9 — and the planes are more fuel efficient, longer range, and larger than existing 777s (and larger than 787s, which are also popular).
With there clearly not being a market anymore for planes like the A380 and 747-8, this will likely be the biggest new aircraft we see manufactured in the next decade.
There are currently over 450 orders for the 777X, so the plane is popular, though not as popular as the A350 or 787, which are lower capacity while still being longe range and fuel efficient. Emirates is the single biggest customer for the 777X, as the airline has 205 of these jets on order, and is using these to replace Airbus A380s, as those jets retire.
However, airlines like All Nippon Airways, British Airways, Cathay Pacific, Qatar Airways, and Singapore Airlines, are also counting on this jet for fleet renewal, all with plans to make this their flagship aircraft.
The Boeing 777X is delayed until at least 2025
For some background, the Boeing 777X was initially supposed to enter service in 2020, but that timeline has been pushed back until at least 2025. What happened, exactly?
The plane has been delayed for a variety of reasons, ranging from production issues, to engine issues, to certification issues, to the pandemic.
Going back several years, the Boeing 777X was supposed to complete its first test flight in mid-2019, but that ended up being pushed back to early 2020. This delay was due to issues with the GE9X General Electric engines on the plane. These are the largest engines ever on a commercial plane, though they were having durability problems, causing a delay in certification.
That wasn’t the only issue, though — during the 777X certification process, a door also blew off during a stress test (hopefully not due to missing bolts!). But that was only the start of the issues. Then Boeing had its first round of issues with the 737 MAX, when two of the jets had fatal crashes. That doesn’t even account for the latest issues with Boeing’s production quality, which has caused most of the company’s senior leadership to be fired.
Officially, Boeing is currently targeting 2025 both for the jet being certified, and for the aircraft entering service. Here’s what I’m curious about, and this is beyond my area of expertise — do we have any reason to believe that this timeline is at all realistic, and will stick?
- Boeing is obviously under increased scrutiny from the government (even more so than when the company claimed the 2025 entry into service timeline for the 777X), which is delaying just about everything at Boeing significantly
- Boeing is struggling to get new variants of the Boeing 737 MAX certified (the 737 MAX 7 and 737 MAX 10), as some changes are required to these jets; the 777X also has major updates compared to the previous generation 777, and I can’t help but wonder if everything has been ironed out there, given Boeing’s management team
- Boeing is even struggling to delivery its 787s reliably due to a variety of factors, even though that jet has been in service for well over a decade now
So I know officially Boeing is still claiming that the 777X should enter service in 2025, but do we have any reason to believe that’s actually the case? For example, Emirates President Tim Clark is one of the brightest guys in the industry, and in recent weeks he has said that he thinks “the 777X is probably at the back end of next year and maybe 2026, if we’re unlucky.”
One of the things that I respect so much about Clark is that he’s one of the biggest realists in the industry. So is an early 2026 timeline for the 777X really unlucky, or is that best case scenario at this point? I can’t help but wonder if that’s really what Clark thinks, or if that’s what he’s trying to tell himself?
I don’t know the answer here, but I think it’s worth a discussion. We only have Boeing’s word regarding a delivery timeline, and Boeing has proven to not be terribly reliable. 😉
Why the 777X delay matters for passengers
It’s not just airlines that should care about Boeing 777X delivery delays, but passengers should as well. Delivery delays with the 777X have greatly messed up fleet planning at many airlines. Airlines order planes with specific strategies in mind, and a delay of five or more years sure messes things up.
Several airlines intend to use the Boeing 777X as their new flagship aircraft, and will introduce new cabins on these planes. In some cases they’ve even had to change their plans. For example:
- Emirates will be installing its new first class on the 777X, which is otherwise only available on fewer than a dozen 777-300ERs; the planes will also be getting a new business class, which is long overdue for the 777
- Cathay Pacific was going to debut its new Aria Suites business class on the 777X, but is now retrofitting existing 777-300ERs with this product; the airline will still debut its new Halo Suites first class on this jet
- Singapore Airlines is expected to debut both a new first and business class product on its 777Xs, and details of this haven’t yet been revealed
- Qatar Airways is expected to launch a new first class on the 777X, in addition to a new Qsuites business class, which will also be installed on other jets
- Lufthansa was going to debut its new Allegris first class and Allegris business class on the 777X, but due to the delays, this is now being installed on A350s and 787s first
Bottom line
The 777X is Boeing’s new flagship wide body aircraft. While the plane was supposed to enter service in 2020, that timeline has been pushed back by several years, to 2025 at the earliest. Boeing has faced a variety of issues, from engine and testing problems, to generally more stringent certification guidelines from the FAA.
We’ve heard Boeing tout the 2025 timeline for entering service for a couple of years, and I can’t help but wonder if that’s still realistic, given how the situation at Boeing has gotten even worse. Do we have any reason to believe that this plane will actually enter service in 2025, or is that just what’s being said since no one actually knows?
When do you think the Boeing 777X will actually enter service?
Just cancel the 777X program... Fix 737 and 787 problems first...
The first 777X operator should play "Love Is an Open Door" for their inaugural flight
I think that one thing that changed and is underestimated is the level of scrutiny of the FAA and EASA towards BOTH Airbus and Boeing following the MAX debacle. And I think no ones in the industry has any idea of the impacts on current aircraft in the certification process. You mentioned only Boeing aircraft but the XLR seems to be delayed also, as certification was expected in Q1 2024... and nothing happened (and noone is talking about it).
Everyone knows the 737 MAX was designed to go nose up at such a steep angle on takeoff that the plane would lose lift, stall and crash. At the very least this was an interesting design for a passenger plane.
Few people know that Boeing has designed the 777x to safely reach cruising altitude but then will automatically go nose down and plunge into the earth or ocean below. But do not worry. They...
Everyone knows the 737 MAX was designed to go nose up at such a steep angle on takeoff that the plane would lose lift, stall and crash. At the very least this was an interesting design for a passenger plane.
Few people know that Boeing has designed the 777x to safely reach cruising altitude but then will automatically go nose down and plunge into the earth or ocean below. But do not worry. They have installed a raspberry computer running linux. It will take over and prevent the crash.
You're trying too hard....
Boeing seems to have so many problems I've forgotten this plane type even exists, well is coming I mean.
If it's Boeing, I'm not going!
If the FAA lets it fly Ill fly because it is SAFE!
"If the FAA lets it fly Ill fly because it is SAFE!"
That supposed to be comedy, right?
Ah yes, the same FAA that allowed Boeing to do their own inspections to certify their own plane which resulted in 346 deaths.... totally safe.
Boeing needs the B777X in production soon!! I would imagine the break even point is much higher than the 453 orders on hand considering the 5+ years of delays. Also, Emirates has 205 of the orders, Qatar is next with 74 and the rest spread in the 20 to 30 range for the remaining airlines. Too many eggs in one basket. Also, none of the western hemisphere airlines have any skin in the game for...
Boeing needs the B777X in production soon!! I would imagine the break even point is much higher than the 453 orders on hand considering the 5+ years of delays. Also, Emirates has 205 of the orders, Qatar is next with 74 and the rest spread in the 20 to 30 range for the remaining airlines. Too many eggs in one basket. Also, none of the western hemisphere airlines have any skin in the game for the B777X; too large for their needs. Should Emirates scale back its order or the Pacific Rim experience an economic slowdown, Boeing is in deep s**t.
For cash flow purposes to fund MAX and B777X delays, Boeing needs the B787 back on track and borrow money from government contracts.
Sounds like a classic Business School case study. Plenty of "what if's" and no right answer!!
I reckon 2030 is the best case scenario. I know Clark is generally realistic and respectable shrewd operator in the context of the Airline industry but I think even he is being optimistic but also pragmatic in terms of image, trying to manage reputation as admitting they won't have these until 2030 is not good look.
You can probably look at the surge in sales for the A350-1000 as a barometer of airline confidence in the certification of the 777X. There are a multiple airlines that are both 777X and A350 customers and many continue to build their A350 fleets. The 35K is actually most comparable to the 777-8 in range and size and that plane might not be delivered until the end of the decade.
As for EK and...
You can probably look at the surge in sales for the A350-1000 as a barometer of airline confidence in the certification of the 777X. There are a multiple airlines that are both 777X and A350 customers and many continue to build their A350 fleets. The 35K is actually most comparable to the 777-8 in range and size and that plane might not be delivered until the end of the decade.
As for EK and Clark's back and forth about the 35K, Qatar and Etihad are both 35K operators and neither have made a public issue about the Rolls Royce 97 engines on the 35K. RR has acknowledged time on wing needs to improve in hostile environments on wing which probably says they can and have negotiate some pricing for those airlines but RR still expects that the issues will be fixed within the current delivery timeframe for new build olders. For EK, it comes down to whether they want a new generation twin even w/ engine performance issues or wait for the 777X which might or might not be certified for years. I suspect the issue is financial and Airbus and RR have been willing to negotiate with at least Air France/KLM, Delta and Korean for large orders that include MRO rights on the RR engines.
Strategically, the MAX 7 is far more critical for WN and the MAX 10 for UA than the 777X is for any airline and the cost to Boeing for customer compensation for the MAXs is undoubtedly higher. While some would argue that the MAX and 777X are on separate tracks, Boeing is having to rebuild its relationship with the FAA and that means every new certification and even Boeing's production of existing models is delayed.
Have to agree with Tim here. While Clark is famously frank and open with his thoughts, most airlines aren't going to publicly bash one of the members of the duopoly that they depend on for their planes. Their opinion will be found where their money is, and that money is increasingly going to various A350s.
I like the A350, but I am saddened that the 777x has become such a disaster. Those extra 4 inches...
Have to agree with Tim here. While Clark is famously frank and open with his thoughts, most airlines aren't going to publicly bash one of the members of the duopoly that they depend on for their planes. Their opinion will be found where their money is, and that money is increasingly going to various A350s.
I like the A350, but I am saddened that the 777x has become such a disaster. Those extra 4 inches of width don't sound like much but I think it will improve passenger comfort, and as you mention, will enable new premium seating products that can't fit on 787s or A350s. Boeing still has a chance to salvage the program if they can get it out in the next year or so. But after that, I think they're going to miss the big 777 replacement cycle, most of which will go to the A350 as airlines can't afford to sit and wait for Boeing much longer.
and yet UA did the same thing about Boeing.
QR did it to Airbus and then came back after realizing they couldn't get anything else from Boeing faster or that is better - but they got pushed back in the delivery line in the process.
It never turns out well publicly criticizing your suppliers, does it?
I get the A350k's engine suffers in the Gulf's moist hot dusty and salty atmosphere. And this came known after years of operation.
Who's crystal ball has predicted the GE9x will fare better ?
If I was a Gulf airline waiting for the 777x, EIS would be only be the first of my problems. Then there is the GR9x on wing performance and the production capacity and quality.
They'll get there, eventually, but...
I get the A350k's engine suffers in the Gulf's moist hot dusty and salty atmosphere. And this came known after years of operation.
Who's crystal ball has predicted the GE9x will fare better ?
If I was a Gulf airline waiting for the 777x, EIS would be only be the first of my problems. Then there is the GR9x on wing performance and the production capacity and quality.
They'll get there, eventually, but in the meantime they'll hold on their A380s and replace all the 77W with A350ks. I don't believe the 777x-8 will end up built. It's depriorisation after the 777x-F says it all.
The 777x will end up like the A380. Too large a plane designed for DXB-LHR. But who will really need it when Heathrow gets a 3rd runway and EK moves to DWC ?
Maybe the freighter will do well ?
I actually hope the US Gov looks at Boeing as a whole and says, we need to look at one of these planes/variants immediately to get something certified and out there. Lord knows Boeing needs the cash and deliveries make that happen. Then focus on the next variant(s) that need the most attention. It's been awhile since I've heard of anything "wrong" with the 777X, so hopefully that's good news and a few airlines can...
I actually hope the US Gov looks at Boeing as a whole and says, we need to look at one of these planes/variants immediately to get something certified and out there. Lord knows Boeing needs the cash and deliveries make that happen. Then focus on the next variant(s) that need the most attention. It's been awhile since I've heard of anything "wrong" with the 777X, so hopefully that's good news and a few airlines can start flying them.
Question: With all of these delays, is Boeing still building these and just mothballing them until they are certified? Would be interesting to know how many of each type/variants of planes are "ready to go" but are held up on certification or other delays.
It's not like the FAA is delaying inspections. They're doing their inspections and finding problems. IOW, the holdup isn't the FAA, it's Boeing failing inspections. I hope the opposite: the FAA is not supposed to be concerned about Boeing's finances, only the safety of their aircraft. I hope they don't cut corners on the certification process just to help out Boeing financially. That "assistance" will backfire if those cut corners lead to accidents that shut...
It's not like the FAA is delaying inspections. They're doing their inspections and finding problems. IOW, the holdup isn't the FAA, it's Boeing failing inspections. I hope the opposite: the FAA is not supposed to be concerned about Boeing's finances, only the safety of their aircraft. I hope they don't cut corners on the certification process just to help out Boeing financially. That "assistance" will backfire if those cut corners lead to accidents that shut down the whole program.
Heck, if the government feels Boeing is too big to fail (and it probably is, given its military contracts), then Congress can loan them some money. But the FAA should focus on safety and nothing else and keep failing Boeing until their products are up to snuff.