Emirates President On The Future Of Aviation

Emirates President Tim Clark is one of the brightest guys in the airline industry. He is one of the main people behind Emirates as we know it today, because he built the airline from the ground up. I don’t think there’s a person who has a better understanding of global aviation than he does.

I could listen to Clark talk for hours. Whenever I fly Emirates (remember when flying was a thing?!) I always enjoyed listening to the “Emirates World” radio channel, and in particular the interviews with Clark. I think I’ve probably heard the same interview a dozen times.

Clark was supposed to retire in June 2020, though obviously this isn’t an ideal time to leave a company you care about. It looks like he may now stay on a bit longer to make sure the airline continues moving in the right direction.

Tim Clark turned Emirates into one of the most well known airline brands

The National published an interview with Tim Clark this week, which is worth a read. I wanted to briefly hit on just a few of the highlights that I found most insightful:

  • Had the laws of supply and demand and survival of the fittest worked, Clark believes 85% of airlines would have gone out of business
  • Clark is happy we have seen as much state aid globally as we have, because otherwise we would have seen a huge number of mergers, and “there wasn’t room for more consolidation”
  • This is a “black swan” event for the airline industry, and the impact of this is worse than the aggregate of all challenges the airline industry has faced since World War II
  • Clark believes that for the next year or two, or perhaps even longer, demand for air travel is going to be tempered; even when it recovers, he expects we’ll be looking at an industry that’s 20-30% smaller than before COVID-19
  • Clark has “written off” this summer, and doesn’t expect much of anything; he certainly doesn’t think that demand will “come back like a tsunami”
  • Clark acknowledges that “the A380 is over,” but also says that “the A350 and 787 will always have a place,” and while they might not be ordered soon, when demand does come back they will be a better fit than ever before (nothing here is a surprise, since we knew the A380 was “dead,” since production was already scheduled to end in 2021)
  • Clark’s view is that he wouldn’t be surprised if the virus disappeared completely by the end of the summer, but if it doesn’t, then a vaccine is the only way that international travel will return in any substantial way
  • He believes that by next summer we’ll have widespread vaccinations, and that things could start to return to normal at that point

Clark thinks this summer should be written off

There’s nothing terribly surprising here, but I do always enjoy hearing Clark’s perspective on things. He’s not only brilliant, but he’s also a straight shooter, unlike many other airline CEOs (“we don’t need to offer premium economy, because our economy is better than premium economy on most airlines”)…

What do you make of Clark’s perspective?

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Marcela Guest

I believe that someone should mention that they fired more than 100 pregnant crew ,leaving them with no medical insurance in the middle of their pregnancy(!) For sure COVID-19 has had a huge impact on aviation but a company never lets go pregnant ladies, I wonder whether these 100 redundant pregnant crew made any difference financially to the company now that they stayed without medical insurance and no job? Maybe it would have been better not to lay off people in need next time.

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Jay Guest

So, who made the decision to buy more than 100 A380’s? Under whose watch? Tim Clark?

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Dirigible Guest

There is a lot of adulation here from the fanboy club of STC, much of which I take issue with. STC has always been self righteous and confident in his decision making, yet fails to see the error of his ways in his stewardship of EK. The company has lost direction in recent years, relying on thin margins and low operating costs to generate modest profits in lucrative times. The full year results published just yesterday show just a 1.6% profit margin on revenue of AED 104bn. It always was a risk to defy rational wisdom and order a fleet of behemoth aircraft, which left the airline exposed to any downturns and unable to reduce capacity quickly on thinner routes. Agreed Covid-19 is a black swan event, but even prior to the virus, there were signs that at least a slowdown was probable, yet EK failed to position itself. His statement that the A380 era is over and the way forward is contrary to what he was quoted just a few months ago in November. He criticises BA for not ordering 'hundreds' of A380, and admonishes Airbus for cancelling the program. I agree the world has massively changed, but STC has left EK with an unnecessary exposure to the retraction in demand, and lacked foresight. Furthermore his two lieutenants groomed to take over, Christoph Mueller, and Thierry Antinori, both left in the past couple of years so the management of change is in limbo. One thing that I am very much in agreement with is the post by Nicola, reference Sir Maurice Flanagan. He was amazing to work with, and the true pioneer for Emirates. I have the utmost respect for him.

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Azamaraal Diamond

@Mike I can't agree with you about the A380 being a flop. It probably was and still is almost a perfect airplane for EK in the sense that they do long haul hub destinations. They also use cramped versions for moving workers in and out. Airbus rushed to be first and Boeing wisely chose not to compete in the Super Jumbo race. So for many routes the 380 is a money maker but it might have been better if a more fuel-efficient airplane plane had been adopted. But for much of EK's route map it was certainly a successful moneymaker. With so few airlines adopting the 747-8 we don't hear much about the bottom line. It didn't have the pizazz of the 380 so for EK wasn't an obvious choice but in the long run might have been better.

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Nicola Guest

@Mike I am so curious to know more about your credentials to understand how you came up to these conclusions. I live in Dubai since 2004 and beside being obviously a customer since 16 years, I know many people working for Emirates. I know about their policies, commercial strategies and ethics. Dubai is not Qatar or Abu Dhabi. Did not have back then and even less today, the capability to subsidize a multibillion dollar business. But I know people ready to pay more in order to fly with Emirates and for endless number of reasons. However it's a free world and everyone deserves to have a say.

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