US Passes 750K Daily Air Travelers Over July 4 Weekend

A few months ago demand for air travel began to plummet, as we’ve seen airlines cut capacity unlike ever before. During that time I’ve been keeping an eye on passenger numbers, as it’s interesting to see how demand is evolving.

The pace at which travel by air is recovering is surprising to most, as we keep hitting new pandemic records in terms of the number of travelers every week.

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July 4 weekend is historically a really busy weekend for air travel, so how was it in the coronavirus era? Well, really busy, setting a new record since the pandemic started, as we saw the most travelers we’ve seen since March 18:

• Last Thursday we saw 764K+ daily air travelers, the most we’ve seen in well over three months
• We “only” saw a 63.4% drop in passenger traffic compared to the same day last year, which is also the smallest drop we’ve seen in a few months

With US airlines having surpasses 750K travelers, it seems like the next major milestone is a million daily travelers, and I’d guess we may very well get to that within a month or so.

TSA data on how many people are flying

How has traffic through US airports changed over the past several weeks? Well, rather helpfully the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has been publishing data on how many passengers have passed through US airport checkpoints each day, with a comparison to how many traveled on the same day of the week last year.

It’s interesting to take an updated look at this data, as we are seeing new records every week, as demand for air travel slowly and steadily increases.

Below I’ll share passenger data for the past several weeks. Note that:

• The comparison is to the same day of the week last year (since passenger demand is highly dependent on the day of the week)
• I’ll show a percentage in parenthesis with each date, representing the percent of people traveling this year compared to last year (for example, if it shows 5%, that means that 5% as many people are traveling this year compared to last year, so there has been a 95% decline)

Here’s the data on passenger numbers in recent weeks:

• Sunday, March 22: 454,516 vs. 2,542,643 (~17.9%)
• Monday, March 23: 331,431 vs. 2,434,370 (~13.6%)
• Tuesday, March 24: 279,018 vs. 2,151,913 (~13%)
• Wednesday, March 25: 239,234 vs. 2,273,811 (~10.5%)
• Friday, March 27: 199,644 vs. 2,538,384 (~7.9%)
• Saturday, March 28: 184,027 vs. 2,172,920 (~8.5%)
• Sunday, March 29: 180,002 vs. 2,510,294 (~7.2%)
• Monday, March 30: 154,080 vs. 2,360,053 (~6.5%)
• Tuesday, March 31: 146,348 vs. 2,026,256 (~7.2%)
• Wednesday, April 1: 136,023 vs. 2,151,626 (~6.3%)
• Thursday, April 2: 124,021 vs. 2,411,500 (~5.1%)
• Friday, April 3: 129,763 vs. 2,476,884 (~5.2%)
• Saturday, April 4: 118,302 vs. 2,011,715 (~5.9%)
• Sunday, April 5: 122,029 vs. 2,462,929 (~4.9%)
• Monday, April 6: 108,310 vs. 2,384,091 (~4.5%)
• Tuesday, April 7: 97,130 vs. 2,091,056 (~4.6%)
• Wednesday, April 8: 94,931 vs. 2,229,276 (~4.3%)
• Thursday, April 9: 104,090 vs. 2,487,398 (~4.2%)
• Friday, April 10: 108,977 vs. 2,590,499 (~4.2%)
• Saturday, April 11: 93,645 vs. 2,059,142 (~4.5%)
• Sunday, April 12: 90,510 vs. 2,446,801 (~3.7%)
• Monday, April 13: 102,184 vs. 2,484,580 (~4.1%)
• Tuesday, April 14: 87,534 vs. 2,208,688 (~4.0%)
• Wednesday, April 15: 90,784 vs. 2,317,381 (~3.9%)
• Thursday, April 16: 95,085 vs. 2,616,158 (~3.6%)
• Friday, April 17: 106,385 vs. 2,457,133 (~4.3%)
• Saturday, April 18: 97,236 vs. 1,988,205 (~4.9%)
• Sunday, April 19: 105,382 vs. 2,356,802 (~4.5%)
• Monday, April 20: 99,344 vs. 2,594,171 (~3.8%)
• Tuesday, April 21: 92,859 vs. 2,227,475 (~4.2%)
• Wednesday, April 22: 98,968 vs. 2,254,209 (~4.4%)
• Thursday, April 23: 111,627 vs. 2,526,961 (~4.4%)
• Friday, April 24: 123,464 vs. 2,521,897 (~4.9%)
• Saturday, April 25: 114,459 vs. 1,990,464 (~5.8%)
• Sunday, April 26: 128,875 vs. 2,506,809 (~5.1%)
• Monday, April 27: 119,854 vs. 2,412,770 (~5.0%)
• Tuesday, April 28: 110,913 vs. 2,102,068 (~5.3%)
• Wednesday, April 29: 119,629 vs. 2,256,442 (~5.3%)
• Thursday, April 30: 154,695 vs. 2,499,461 (~6.2%)
• Friday, May 1: 171,563 vs. 2,546,029 (~6.7%)
• Saturday, May 2: 134,261 vs. 1,968,278 (~6.8%)
• Sunday, May 3: 170,254 vs. 2,512,598 (~6.8%)
• Monday, May 4: 163,692 vs. 2,470,969 (~6.6%)
• Tuesday, May 5: 130,601 vs. 2,106,597 (~6.2%)
• Wednesday, May 6: 140,409 vs. 2,270,662 (~6.2%)
• Thursday, May 7: 190,863 vs. 2,555,342 (~7.5%)
• Friday, May 8: 215,444 vs. 2,602,631 (~8.3%)
• Saturday, May 9: 169,580 vs. 1,985,942 (~8.5%)
• Sunday, May 10: 200,815 vs. 2,419,114 (~8.3%)
• Monday, May 11: 215,645 vs. 2,512,315 (~8.6%)
• Tuesday, May 12: 163,205 vs. 2,191,387 (~7.5%)
• Wednesday, May 13: 176,667 vs. 2,343,675 (~7.5%)
• Thursday, May 14: 234,928 vs. 2,611,324 (~9.0%)
• Friday, May 15: 250,467 vs. 2,664,549 (~9.4%)
• Saturday, May 16: 193,340 vs. 2,091,116 (~9.2%)
• Sunday, May 17: 253,807 vs. 2,620,276 (~9.7%)
• Monday, May 18: 244,176 vs. 2,615,691 (~9.3%)
• Tuesday, May 19: 190,477 vs. 2,312,727 (~8.2%)
• Wednesday, May 20: 230,367 vs. 2,472,123 (~9.3%)
• Thursday, May 21: 318,449 vs. 2,673,635 (~12.0%)
• Friday, May 22: 348,673 vs. 2,792,670 (~12.5%)
• Saturday, May 23: 253,190 vs. 2,124,825 (~11.9%)
• Sunday, May 24: 267,451 vs. 2,070,716 (~12.9%)
• Monday, May 25: 340,769 vs. 2,512,237 (~13.6%)
• Tuesday, May 26: 264,843 vs. 2,453,649 (~10.8%)
• Wednesday, May 27: 261,170 vs. 2,269,035 (~11.5%)
• Thursday, May 28: 321,776 vs. 2,485,770 (~12.9%)
• Friday, May 29: 327,133 vs. 2,570,613 (~12.7%)
• Saturday, May 30: 268,867 vs. 2,117,180 (~12.7%)
• Sunday, May 31: 352,947 vs. 2,555,578 (~13.8%)
• Monday, June 1: 353,261 vs. 2,499,002 (~14.1%)
• Tuesday, June 2: 267,742 vs. 2,247,421 (~11.9%)
• Wednesday, June 3: 304,436 vs. 2,370,152 (~12.8%)
• Thursday, June 4: 391,882 vs. 2,623,947 (~14.9%)
• Friday, June 5: 419,675 vs. 2,649,808 (~15.8%)
• Saturday, June 6: 353,016 vs. 2,225,952 (~15.9%)
• Sunday, June 7: 441,255 vs. 2,669,860 (~16.5%)
• Monday, June 8: 430,414 vs. 2,644,981 (~16.3%)
• Tuesday, June 9: 338,382 vs. 2,433,189 (~13.9%)
• Wednesday, June 10: 386,969 vs. 2,509,058 (~15.4%)
• Thursday, June 11: 502,209 vs. 2,675,686 (~18.8%)
• Friday, June 12: 519,304 vs. 2,727,860 (~19.0%)
• Saturday, June 13: 437,119 vs. 2,318,946 (~18.8%)
• Sunday, June 14: 544,046 vs. 2,642,083 (~20.6%)
• Monday, June 15: 534,528 vs. 2,699,580 (~19.8%)
• Tuesday, June 16: 417,924 vs. 2,466,574 (~16.9%)
• Wednesday, June 17: 441,829 vs. 2,552,395 (~17.3%)
• Thursday, June 18: 576,514 vs. 2,728,786 (~21.1%)
• Friday, June 19: 587,908 vs. 2,772,903 (~21.2%)
• Saturday, June 20: 507,129 vs. 2,378,559 (~21.3%)
• Sunday, June 21: 590,456 vs. 2,719,643 (~21.7%)
• Monday, June 22: 607,540 vs. 2,716,428 (~22.4%)
• Tuesday, June 23: 471,421 vs. 2,506,510 (~18.8%)
• Wednesday, June 24: 494,826 vs. 2,594,661 (~19.1%)
• Thursday, June 25: 623,624 vs. 2,711,222 (~23.3%)
• Friday, June 26: 632,984 vs. 2,730,515 (~23.2%)
• Saturday, June 27: 546,310 vs. 2,368,846 (~23.1%)
• Sunday, June 28: 633,810 vs. 2,632,030 (~24.1%)
• Monday, June 29: 625,235 vs. 2,455,536 (~25.5%)
• Tuesday, June 30: 500,054 vs. 2,347,767 (~21.3%)
• Wednesday, July 1: 626,516 vs. 2,547,889 (~24.6%)
• Thursday, July 2: 764,671 vs. 2,088,760 (~36.6%)
• Friday, July 3: 718,988 vs. 2,184,253 (~32.9%)
• Saturday, July 4: 466,669 vs. 2,345,846 (~19.9%)
• Sunday, July 5: 732,123 vs. 2,795,369 (~26.2%)

It’s probably worth clarifying that the above doesn’t paint the full picture of people traveling, since this only accounts for people being screened at US airports. For example, it doesn’t account for those arriving in the US from other countries and not connecting onwards.

Demand for air travel is recovering (slowly)

While we’re nowhere close to pre-COVID-19 traffic levels, demand for air travel is slowly and consistently increasing in the US, at a faster rate than most people were expecting.

A few observations based on the above data:

• The past few months represent new record lows for traffic in over a decade
• Tuesday, April 14, 2020, represented a new low for passenger traffic, with under 88,000 passengers; seeing the dip below 100,000 daily passengers is something I never thought I’d see
• Demand fell significantly between between March 22 and April 12, even though in theory people were already social distancing and sheltering in place; for example, passenger numbers compared to last year decreased from an 82.1% drop to a 96.3% drop
• Airline CEOs are largely claiming that demand bottomed out in early April, and the data seems to support that

Expect flights to be full

Airlines are doing things to make flying safer, or at least make it appear that flying is safer — from requiring face masks, to often misleadingly promoting social distancing — though many would argue that it’s still not responsible to fly for fun.

One common misconception continues to be that planes are flying empty given how much demand has dropped. This simply isn’t the case, so if you are planning on flying in the coming weeks expect planes to be full.

While demand has dropped significantly, airlines have also cut capacity, so I’d expect flights to continue to be full. You’ve been warned.

Bottom line

The demand for air travel has dropped significantly, which is expected. Demand is slowly but consistently starting to increase, though it’ll be a while until we’re back to 2019 levels.

Last Thursday we saw over 750K air travelers in the US for the first time in over three months. Not only that, but we also saw the smallest percentage drop compared to the same day last year.

Now the big question is when the US will pass one million daily air travelers.

Does this TSA data surprise you?