United Airlines will be pulling the plug on two seasonal routes to the South Pacific, as flagged by @IshrionA. I can’t say I’m surprised, but it’s just another reminder of how no US airline can seemingly make Los Angeles work as a long haul, international hub.
United cuts two seasonal South Pacific routes
United has by far the most impressive long haul network of the “big three” US carriers. In the northern summer, the airline of course has no issue focusing heavily on transatlantic flights, given the unlimited demand among consumers for this service. However, it’s a bit trickier to fill those planes counter seasonally, in the northern winter.
This past year, United massively expanded in the South Pacific, increasing service by 40% year over year, and even offering more seats between the United States and the South Pacific than Qantas. Unfortunately this expansion didn’t work out quite as well as United had hoped, as the airline struggled with a reduction in load factor and yields. So United is now updating its schedule for the upcoming season.
For this upcoming northern winter (so late 2024 and early 2025), United no longer plans to operate the following seasonal routes:
- Los Angeles (LAX) to Auckland (AKL)
- Los Angeles (LAX) to Brisbane (BNE)
With these cuts, United’s long haul international destinations out of Los Angeles will include Hong Kong (HKG), London (LHR), Melbourne (MEL), Sydney (SYD), and Tokyo (HND & NRT). United also plans to resume Shanghai (PVG) flights as of August, though let’s see how that goes, as Delta recently revealed it wouldn’t bring back that route.
United continues to serve both Auckland and Brisbane out of San Francisco (SFO).
My take on United’s South Pacific route cuts
I can’t say I’m surprised by United’s route cuts, since these were definitely United’s two most questionable South Pacific routes.
In the case of the Los Angeles to Auckland flight, this is a route that has gone from no US carriers to three US carriers within the past year, as American, Delta, and United, all added this route.
All three of those airlines have a significant but not dominant presence in Los Angeles, so it almost seems like the airlines were all just copying one another and didn’t want to be left out, rather than independently seeing the demand for the route, especially when factoring in the competition. Delta was going to take the lead by operating this route year-round, but recently revealed it would only operate the route seasonally, so clearly it’s not performing great for Delta either.
You would think that if one of the “big three” US carriers could make the Los Angeles to Auckland route work, it would be United, given the carrier’s partnership with Air New Zealand, so that there’s connectivity on both ends. But I guess that wasn’t enough to save it.
The Los Angeles to Brisbane route was questionable in the first place, but is even more questionable now that American and Delta are both launching flights to Brisbane as well. The reason we’re seeing this huge expansion in service to Brisbane is because of major incentives being offered to US airlines. You can bet that as soon as those incentives run out, most of the service will as well.
I have to imagine that either United only got these incentives on one of the two routes, or that the incentives for the Los Angeles flight only applied for the first season.
The biggest takeaway here is that as much as US airlines all try to establish a dominant position in Los Angeles, none actually succeed. We’ve seen each of the US carriers grow long haul service there, only to cut it later.
In the case of United, the airline at least has the advantage of having a hub in San Francisco, which is just over 300 miles away. For the purposes of connecting travel, that’s a really efficient hub, given the size of United’s presence there. So as much as Los Angeles is a major origin and destination market, a heavy focus on the local market doesn’t seem to be able to sustain many of these routes.
Bottom line
United is canceling two transpacific routes out of Los Angeles, as the airline will cut flights to Auckland and Brisbane. Last year, United massively expanded in the South Pacific, and increased capacity by 40%. That growth wasn’t good for yields, so now the airline is canceling some of the more poorly performing routes. Not surprisingly, those are out of Los Angeles.
What do you make of United’s South Pacific route cuts?
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