I’m not surprised to see Delta making this change, I’m just not sure what the airline was thinking in the first place.
Delta reduces Los Angeles to Auckland service
We’ve seen US airlines add a significant amount of capacity to New Zealand in the past year or so. For example, a year ago, no US airlines flew from Los Angeles (LAX) to Auckland (AKL). Then as of late October 2023, all of the “big three” US carriers launched seasonal flights in the market.
Delta was the first to announce seasonal service between Los Angeles and Auckland, followed by United, followed by American. When United and American matched Delta, Delta responded by making this route year-round. That always seemed like a questionable move, so I’m not surprised to see the latest update.
As spotted by Enilria, Delta’s Los Angeles to Auckland route will once again transition to seasonal. This will happen after the 2024-2025 northern winter schedule. That means Delta will suspend the route as of late March 2025. It remains to be seen if it returns seasonally again in late October 2025, though I imagine it will (the schedule isn’t open that far out).
I can’t help but wonder with what logic Delta decided to extend this service to year-round in the first place. The international market in which the “big three” US carriers are consistently raking in the dough is across the Atlantic in summer. So I was surprised that Delta executives thought an A350 could be better utilized to Auckland than to Europe (never mind that it’s a significantly longer flight).
With this cut, Delta’s year-round long haul international destinations out of Los Angeles include Paris, Sydney, and Tokyo (given that Delta is cutting its London service as of May 2024, and is handing it over to Virgin Atlantic). Then the airline has seasonal flights to Auckland, Brisbane, and Tahiti.
While some have suggested that Delta is trying to take the lead among US carriers with global services out of Los Angeles, that doesn’t seem to be materializing. That’s probably for good reason, since it’s a challenging market with a lot of foreign competition.
We’ve seen too much growth across the South Pacific
Recently we’ve seen an absolutely massive expansion across the South Pacific among US airlines. This has primarily come in three areas:
- American, Delta, and United, all adding service to Brisbane, as this is being subsidized by the government
- American, Delta, and United, all growing New Zealand service
- United hugely expanding to Australia, with the carrier having more capacity than Qantas across the South Pacific in the most recent peak season
I think we’ve probably peaked when it comes to South Pacific service for US carriers, and we’re going to see reductions, rather than more additions. Sure, there’s a fair bit of seasonal demand across the South Pacific, and US carriers need somewhere to send their wide bodies counter seasonally (since many Europe routes are only in summer).
However, as Cranky Flier recently analyzed, United has really struggled to fill seats across the South Pacific, and the numbers are pretty grim. United’s expansion is coming at the expense of yields.
US carriers have very high operating costs (and that doesn’t even account for upcoming flight attendant pay increases, which are inevitable), and these are very long routes.
I have to imagine we’ll see some peak season reductions to Auckland, the Brisbane flights will mostly only last as long as the subsidies do, and United will scale back its growth.
Bottom line
Delta no longer plans to fly between Los Angeles and Auckland year-round, as the airline is instead reducing this service to seasonal. That means American, Delta, and United, will all exclusively operate seasonal flights in the market.
I was surprised when Delta decided to make the Auckland route year-round in the first place, so I’m also not surprised to see this reversal.
What do you make of Delta backtracking on its Auckland plans?
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