When you think of Emirates, the Airbus A380 may be the first thing that comes to mind. And when you think of the Airbus A380, Emirates might be the first thing that comes to mind. Emirates helped turn Dubai into the global transit hub that it is today, and the A380 is the plane that really enabled Emirates to do that. For the Dubai-based carrier, the A380 is more than just another aircraft.
With that in mind, I want to take a look at Emirates’ current retirement plans for the whale jet. Up until now, Emirates’ plan was to retire the aircraft by 2040, though the plane has seemingly just gained some extra years of life…
In this post:
Emirates plans to fly Airbus A380 into the 2040s
Emirates is the only airline in the world that has managed to make the Airbus A380 a huge success, as the airline was able to scale its A380 operations in a way that no other airline did. Emirates has 116 A380s in its fleet, representing roughly half of the world’s total A380 deliveries. For some airlines, the A380 offered too much capacity, while for Emirates, the airline can’t get enough of the plane.
Unfortunately for Emirates (and us passengers), the days of the Airbus A380 are numbered. Airbus stopped A380 production in 2021, as there weren’t sufficient orders to keep production going (Emirates’ leaders believe that other airlines intentionally sabotaged the plane).
As much as Emirates could have almost kept the A380 program alive, the airline also realized it didn’t make sense to keep investing in an aircraft that would eventually become obsolete, as aircraft manufacturers invest in other aircraft technology instead.
So, what’s the latest on the retirement of the Airbus A380? A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has just been signed for Rolls-Royce to perform Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO), on Emirates’ A380 Trent 900 engines.
With this announcement, Emirates has revealed that it plans to continue operating the A380 fleet “into the 2040s,” which suggests that the planes are getting a little more life than initially planned.
With the last A380 having being delivered in 2021, that means the youngest A380 will be in its 20s when it’s retired, give or take. Of course “2040s” gives the airline quite a bit of flexibility, and the timeline could change. Are we talking 2041 or 2049?
At one point, Emirates’ plan was to retire these planes in the mid-2030s, so the longer timeline is something that many travelers will appreciate. To be clear, that doesn’t mean some A380s won’t be retired before then. Quite to the contrary, the plan is for many A380s to start to be retired around the early to mid 2030s, and then they’ll be used for parts, to allow the remaining A380 fleet to keep flying.
Emirates is still very much investing in its Airbus A380s, as these planes are being overhauled with refreshed cabins, including a new premium economy product, and even updated business class seats. Emirates President Tim Clark has even hinted at a refreshed first class cabin on these jets.
I think it’s also worth mentioning that this timeline is very much subject to change. Just as coronavirus changed the airline industry in many ways, any major event that impacts global demand could cause Emirates to move forward A380 retirements. So while the 2040s is the goal as of now, if there’s a major economic downturn in the years prior to that, you can bet that those planes will be retired early.
How Emirates will replace its Airbus A380 fleet
The Airbus A380 is by far the largest passenger aircraft in the world, so it goes without saying that it’ll take a lot of frames to replace Emirates’ fleet of A380s. Emirates has roughly 250 aircraft at the moment, split almost evenly between Airbus A380s and Boeing 777s, in addition to a limited number of Airbus A350s, which the airline started taking delivery of earlier this year.
Eventually A380s and existing 777s will be retired, and that’s why Emirates has over 350 jets on order:
- Emirates has 83 Airbus A350-900s on order, which are in the process of being delivered, and should all join the fleet by 2031
- Emirates has 35 Boeing 787s on order, with 20 being for the 787-8 and 15 being for the 787-10, though there’s no delivery timeline for these planes, and one wonders if this is a placeholder order
- Emirates has 270 Boeing 777-9s on order, and they’re expected to be delivered as of 2027, though that’s contingent on the 777X getting certified
We know that Emirates is also pushing for a stretched version of the 777X (informally referred to as the 777-10), but it remains to be seen if that becomes a reality. Given how long aircraft certification takes nowadays, who knows when such a plane could even realistically enter service
Some may wonder why the Airbus A350-1000 isn’t in Emirates’ fleet plans, given that it’s Airbus’ largest aircraft that’s currently in production. It’s because Clark has been critical of the durability of the plane’s Rolls-Royce engines, so he doesn’t see it as a great fit. While there had been rumors that Emirates would order the plane, that didn’t come to frutiion.
Will Emirates be the same without the Airbus A380?
There’s no denying that Emirates has a huge halo effect from the Airbus A380. When people think of Emirates, they almost always think of the A380, and in particular the business class bar and first class shower. Even if someone never travels in a premium cabin, these are two instantly recognizable signature amenities of Emirates.
Arguably the A380’s reputation has allowed Emirates to underinvest in other premium products. For example, Emirates’ Boeing 777 business class has historically been downright subpar, with seven angled seats per row (though a new product is finally being rolled out). While the A380’s amenities might be style over substance, I truly do believe that they give people the impression that Emirates is world class across the board, and causes people to overlook other shortcomings.
Without the Airbus A380, will Emirates maintain the same reputation? The A380 just has some extra real estate for airlines to play with, which you won’t find on other aircraft. Could we still see Emirates introduce an onboard bar on Boeing 777Xs, even if it comes with a bigger opportunity cost?
Honestly, it’s just kind of hard to imagine Emirates without the A380, because it’s such a core part of the brand’s experience. But I do think a lot about Emirates will change. Keep in mind that the airline will move to Dubai World Central (DWC) in the 2030s, which is expected to be the world’s biggest airport, once fully operational.
Also, FlyDubai is massively expanding its fleet, and is expected to eventually fly hundreds of planes. I continue to think that an eventual merger between the two airlines is inevitable, which would make Emirates’ network much more comprehensive (due to the destination limitations of only flying wide body aircraft).
Bottom line
Emirates seems to be planning on keeping the Airbus A380 in its fleet longer, and the plane is now expected to fly into the 2040s, though we don’t know anything beyond that. Previously, Emirates planned to retire the A380 by 2030, so it sure seems like the plane is getting a bit more life.
This obviously remains subject to change, as a shift in global demand could cause Emirates to change that timeline. Emirates has lots of other aircraft on order to eventually replace the A380. Still, one has to wonder what Emirates will be like without the A380.
What’s your take on Emirates eventually retiring the A380? Can you imagine the airline without the A380?
Great news!
One thing I have always wondered is why nobody talks about the better sleep you get on an a380 over a small jet like the 321 across the pond. Just because there is a flat bed, I always get a better sleep on the large a380 because it seems to shake less with turbulence. Am I the only one who finds this?
Maybe there are other factors I am not thinking of but always better rested on an a380.
Flew on a SFO to DXB leg last week. The flight was 100% packed. Emirates just makes it convenient and has such a coverage that most destinations in the world are on a one-stop journey.
By 2049 we may even see a 777X in commercial service.
In actuality, how long can a commercial airframe remain viable? The B-52 bomber has been around for 70 years with airframes to match. Granted, many less takeoff - landing cycles. Assuming engines are maintained and airframes are scrupulously inspected, cant these birds fly for 40 years or more?
Yay! Business on EK a380 is excellent. First is outstanding, especially the shower. Glad to hear this will still be a thing for decade(s) more.
Oh noes. Poor ORD_is_my_second_asylum when he sees this news is going to be so upset...
I wouldn't say upset. I'd prefer that this abomination disappear tomorrow, but EK owns the frames and they've put significant investment into them. What I'm upset about is the spasmodic reactions of the Airbus fanboys out there. A lot of my hatred for the Whale comes from the Airbus fanboys pimping their product by denigrating the 747. Once the Queen, always the Queen.
Sure it was always the Queen. Sucks that you then can't handle the King of the Skies on the scene with the A380.
Ahhh no even if Boeing gives the green light to the 777-10 and Airbus to the A350-2000 neither can match the massive A380 inteior space.
extending the life of the A380s means that EK has a huge number of aircraft to be delivered before the last A380 leaves the fleet.
EK's 777X orderbook alone is more than sufficient to double the capacity flown by the A380 fleet.
extending the life of the A380 gives some insight on EK's real "need" for the 777-10, or perhaps more realistically, how long it might take before EK receives them.
and while Emirates has...
extending the life of the A380s means that EK has a huge number of aircraft to be delivered before the last A380 leaves the fleet.
EK's 777X orderbook alone is more than sufficient to double the capacity flown by the A380 fleet.
extending the life of the A380 gives some insight on EK's real "need" for the 777-10, or perhaps more realistically, how long it might take before EK receives them.
and while Emirates has lots of experience with the A380, the fleet could still be grounded earlier due to maintenance issues including material fatigue issues.
and let's also be clear that the A380 is very fuel inefficient; EK wanted a "NEO" version of the A380 because of new engines are much more efficient. While every other widebody in its fleet will likely be new generation powered in less than 10 years, EK will have the least fuel efficient widebody fleet among large global carriers for years to come. Even United will have retired its 777s and 767s by the time EK retires its A380s.
CASM. The A380 is actually extremely efficient, if you can fill it at a decent price, which Emirates can
With 500 plus seats, yes. But most A380s aren’t configured with that many seats.
The A380 has space for all of the extras like bars and showers that don’t work on other planes. That is why Emirates wants to keep the A380 even at much higher fuel cost
@Tim - a full order book is worthless when Boeing can't deliver a single 777-9 or 10. ER is going to keep these planes in the air to keep making money.
In a interview Tim Clark said that once the A380's load its at 57-58% they are making money.
That's probably dependent on the Business cabin being filled. I wonder how the break even point differs between the 2/3 and 4 class A380s
Ronnie,
and yet EK is by far the largest customer for the 777X. If EK is hedging their bet about WHEN the 777X will get certified by keeping A380s, that is one thing. and if there is real doubt about the 777X even getting certified, it makes zero sense to argue incessantly about the 35K which is the next largest airplane - and it is flying and it is also new generation, something the...
Ronnie,
and yet EK is by far the largest customer for the 777X. If EK is hedging their bet about WHEN the 777X will get certified by keeping A380s, that is one thing. and if there is real doubt about the 777X even getting certified, it makes zero sense to argue incessantly about the 35K which is the next largest airplane - and it is flying and it is also new generation, something the 380 will never be.
Ivan,
and that data point proves that EK could fill smaller planes including 777-300ERs with the same amount of revenue but wants the space to offer unique services like showers which just don't work on smaller planes. As Ben notes, EK's brand is wedded to those features even if only a part of their fleet have them.
Speedbird, "CASM."
And UAE. Emirates cares about fuel costs about half as much as airlines not based in oil rich monarchies.
oil prices are at near historic lows when adjusted for inflation all around the world.
EK, at least on its public books, pays market rates for fuel
The ROI on new aircraft today is not about lower fuel costs but about greater performance and lower maintenance costs.
Emirates is owned by the state of UAE. You might of heard they have plenty of this stuff called oil and very cheap labor. Such mundane cost items as fuel and maintenance labor costs don't bother them or their "financial statements" like airlines in the real world.
and you can't accept that EK is run as a commercial business.
They pay market rates for oil.
It will be a wonderful day when you can accept facts as they really exist instead of your twisted manipulations of the world which only exist in your mind.
EK is a commercial business and succeeds on that regard, not because of state aid.
Sure they do. And market rates for labor just like the rest of UAE and many other Gulf oil states? See Kafala system.
Enjoy the shower. I can understand why one would need one buying a ticket on such an airline.
I have repeatedly noted that the Gulf has been built on low cost labor esp. from S. Asia; the ME3 have used the cruise ship model for staffing. that is why comparisons of profitability between the ME3 and other global airlines are meaningless given that most countries are highly protective of keeping airline jobs primarily for their own citizens
none of which changes that EK does pay market rates for fuel which are very low...
I have repeatedly noted that the Gulf has been built on low cost labor esp. from S. Asia; the ME3 have used the cruise ship model for staffing. that is why comparisons of profitability between the ME3 and other global airlines are meaningless given that most countries are highly protective of keeping airline jobs primarily for their own citizens
none of which changes that EK does pay market rates for fuel which are very low right now; the cost to fly old generation aircraft using old technology engines is low right now but maintenance costs continue to grow.
and there is no assurance that the A380 won't develop major structural flaws in time.
and let's also keep in mind that the A380 will remain in service for only as long as Airbus is willing to support it. If EK places its orders predominantly with Boeing, Airbus has little to lose to continue to support the A380 unless EK pays the full cost of supporting the A380. EK benefits from many operators still keeping the A380 in service and Airbus bearing those costs but that will quickly change in a few years.
might *have heard