I’m Skeptical: Australia & New Zealand Travel Bubble

@Greg “Ben, a sample country who’ve done well with covid is Afghanistan No real restrictions and less deaths

Turns out having a young non fat population works wonders”

If we could all only be as lucky as the uniformly young and thin residents of beautiful Afghanistan, enjoying total freedom in a prosperous and stable society with high living standards and a bright future ahead of it.

@Dennis “@Colin, yes it is a prison. Sure you might be “allowed” to have a BBQ and go to the shop, but for people like me that have an international life, it’s torture.”

When I read about the Central American children separated from their parents at the US border, I was horrified. When I read that Muslims picked up 19 years ago (in the beautiful paradise of Afghanistan no less!) were tortured and yet found not guilty of any crime and later were cleared for release but are still languishing in Guantanamo, I was ashamed. When I read about George Floyd and other unarmed black people being summarily executed by police for no reason whatsoever or for infractions that warrant a fine at most while actual armed white people like Kyle Rittenhouse can just kill people and be praised by the police for it, I was infuriated. When I read about journalists being hacked up by bone saws in the Middle East, I was disgusted.

But then I read your heartbreaking tale of being condemned to a life of shopping and eating in PERTH(!) for up to 9 months and counting(!)... well sir, I’m sending the best American-made thoughts and prayers that your tormentors will be brought to justice, if not here on earth then before the Big Guy in the Sky. Sure, travel restrictions to curb covid’s spread may have saved the lives of countless millions worldwide... but as Jesus himself taught, the true measure of a man’s righteousness is how many *international* lives he saves.

Lucky,
You have posted a few editorial articles mentioning Australia and its response to the Covid19 pandemic. It is unfortunate that the replies often lose civility and use angry name calling tactics.
Australia, as with a number of other well documented nations won't be participating in international travel for quite some time. It is what it is. One member mentions Koalastan. Why the namecalling?

The world is a good place. We want what's best in difficult times.
If the forum becomes all about creative name calling and loses its civility, you lose readership. You lose what you worked to build up. I'm here because I enjoy travel, not abusive language.

Well said platy, at the end of the day thousands of people around the world are dying unnecessary deaths because people won’t take basic precautions like staying home, wearing a mask, distancing etc. I’m Australia and new Zealand people are not dying from Coronavirus. It’s really that simple.

Moderators, you really need to take down or put a heavy warning on the @frrd post above. It’s is dangerously misinformed and spreading falsehoods.

As the Australian institute of health and welfare says

https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/covid-19

“ There is thus far no clear evidence of an increase in suicide, self-harm, suicidal behaviour, or suicidal thoughts associated with the pandemic. However, suicide data are challenging to collect in real time and economic effects are evolving. Our LSR will provide a regular synthesis of the most up-to-date research evidence to guide public health and clinical policy to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on suicide.”

@ Shaun

Like it or not, most of the responsibility to control COVID falls on the states, not the federal government. This simply reflects where the legal powers are allocated pursuant to the respective health acts in each state. Each state government inevitably has a responsibility to itself first and foremost. The federal government has done an appalling job at bringing the players together. It has belligerently played politics against states with non politically aligned governments. It irresponsibly spread false information about individual cases related to the QLD borders, which were already shown to be untrue and not wanted by the individuals concerned. It has failed to champion national systems of best practice. It has failed to set up a secure national system for returning travellers. Ana has visited our community several times in the last 6 months and had private discussions with our local tourism bigwigs, including low key meetings in our local restaurant.

@Mh

Utter garbage. Ana did what needed what needed to be done when the LNP opposition leader, would have opened up the borders and messed up all of the hard work. The people of QLD reaffirmed their support of that position with a swing to the Labor Part in the recent state election. The PM was spouting all sorts of trash about QLD. If NSW can't get the current outbreak under control all other states will urgently act, both Lib and Labor. Gladys (who started strongly) turned out to be just another porkbarrel premier with her corrupt lover boy and is almost out of time - shredding documents catches up with you in the end. So far she got lucky with the community transmission cases over the last couple of months. Just remember the record of the QLD LNP - you've got George Christensen spouting anti science nonsense, you've got the idiotic John-Paul Langbroek in virus denial and on the national level Liberal trash like Senator Sarah henderson encouraging folk to sue the Chief Medical Officer of Victoria. If Mad Monk Tony Abbott had still been PM, per his speech in the UK, he'd have simply done nothing and let the virus vulnerable die like that big fat loser in the US.

@EC2

The Victorian Government achieved a near miraculous result in controlling the second wave. This is clearly understood and respected by most Victorians with the Premier's approval rating has surged to 71% as of mid November

@# Dennis Rettke

No it is not against any state law or against the Constitution to restrict movement in a time of a health crisis. That was tested in the High Court in November.

@ Frrd

No, at this point we can't say there have been 1,000s extra suicides - there has been no spike in suicides per the actual data - paper just published (16 November) in the Lancet Psychiatry - 14.85 per 100,000 before and 14.07 per 100,000 after, in other words no statistical difference. Similarly, data from NSW and VIC reported in There Guardian on 9 November.

We have the evidence that lockdowns do work: Australia, NZ. Sweden has 20 times the death rate. It's called data. It's freely available to you online if you decide to go look for it before making uninformed commentary.

@ Colin

Thanks goodness somebody has some critical faculties around here.

@ George M Romney

Yep - facts help. If you get them right. Some 21% US fatalities for folk under 65 years old (CDC data article published ABC News (US) on 19 November). Some one percent under 34 years. Those figures are worse in some other countries - 30% COVID deaths in Colombia are in the under 60s (OCHA ReliefWeb published 15 December)

@ Stuart

Where we have had state elections the incumbent governments have been soundly endorsed by voters suggesting high support for strict approach to COVID. The Premier of the state with the most strict lockdowns, Victoria, has huge approval rating.

People are certainly "allowed" into their country if they are a citizen or permanent resident or NZA citizen who normally resides in Australia. They have to quarantine for the sake of protecting the health of the community. The limitation comes from the number of people allowed to enter the country each day and thereby the fights and the increased costs. Arguably the federal government could do more to address this issue by setting up better facilities and a more secure system than the current hotel based system.

It may seem strange to folk in the USA, but all of us in Australia are getting on with our lives with COVID virtually eliminated across the nation and across all states. It's called lockdown, a sense of community responsibility and having some brave political leaders from both sides of the political spectrum.

Australia's approach has overwhelming community support - which is probably why the strategy has been effective. Even in Victoria, where the lockdown has been epic - there was majority community support for Premier Dan Andrews stance.

The mental health issues are real. Initially it was thought they may be pent-up from the first lockdown, where there was a massive decrease in emergency mental health presentations. Time has shown that this was an anomaly and it looks like the rate of presentations is up by about 30%. However - there has also been an increase in presentations where countries have been much less successful in their suppression of the virus (not elimination, which is New Zealand's policy.

Lockdown's and isolation contribute, but it looks like the fear of the virus is also responsible for exacerbating existing mental health conditions, as well as precipitating others. Mental health professionals I know that in the youth and adolescent area in Australia, admissions have increased, and are for longer (say 7 days instead of a night or two), but that the respite has a much higher success rate than normal.

Time may change these indications, but that is the picture now.

On the economic front - it is looking like Australia, and some Asian economies who took similar approaches are rebounding well, because they focused on the virus suppression first, an the speed of economic recovery followed. At least that's the current indication. Obviously the situation is dynamic.

On the novelty of this situation - its not novel. We have been through similar for centuries. The very term 'quarantine' comes from the 40 days isolation demanded of ships arriving at Venice in the 14th century. The closing of restaurants, gathering places, closing of schools, curfews, theatres, sports venues, the marking of infected houses, the removal of diseased people to 'qurantine' hospitals all happend as recently as the Spanish Flu epidemic in the early 20th Century.

Very few miss travel as much as me I have cancelled 4 international travel trips in the last 9 months. But if it means I can't travel for a year or so, to prevent the suffering and potential death of others - I'm in.

On repatriating Australians - more difficult. Initially I had little sympathy, as I felt it was those who didn't heed the call of our leaders to return home in March. I have since modified my view as I have heard more complex stories, and I think more should have, and should still be done for our Expatriates.

On the question of cost - in a post pandemic world of airlines going broke, it is unreasonable to expect travel to be bargain priced like it was pre-pandemic. And the world, let alone the Australian government, I don't think is responsible for bailing out travellers. They do with all kinds of interest free loans, I know. While I sympathise with the stranded, sometimes, you are on your own, or in the hands of family and friends, and the government - unless you are prepared to pay a lot more taxation than you do - is not.

If you read this far. You should get a prize.

As a West Australian in Perth all I can say is that I can't imagine life any other way right now. We don't need to wear masks at all. All events including music concerts with no social distancing are all back on. Pubs, clubs, restaurants, offices, schools, universities etc are all open and have been for 6+ months. We have a booming economy and one of the lowest unemployment rates anywhere in the world. Not to mention we are a state of 2.7 million people and have had 9 deaths since cover-19 was first discovered. And this won't be forever all we are doing is waiting for a widespread vaccine then we can travel.

@Greg - grow up mate would you rather not see your family in person for a year or two or see them die.

@KW - Is this "insular hermit kingdom" the same one where almost no one has died, has low unemployment rates, booming economies and where we can actually do things with other people face to face and actually have a life. Yeah that sounds horrible.

You're right to be skeptical, Lucky. The parochial fault lines in our creaky Federation were exposed by state governments' response to covid, as opposed to covid itself. Nobody but the P.M. talked about 'Australia' as a nation. It was every petty-minded state premier for themselves! It's quite normal to see a healthy rivalry in sporting contests between states in better days, but to see Australians turn on each other based on their home state was shocking in the extreme for this Australian. Suddenly we were Queenslanders or Victorians first and foremost! And our seemingly nice neighbour across the Tasman Sea has shown herself to be no less parochial than us in her policy positions. Do not expect a travel bubble anytime soon with these parochial mindsets in place on both sides of the Tasman Sea.

Your reason in that because it has been discussed for too long does make sense and equally your reason between these two places does make sense. Perhaps it is too big. I mean perhaps the places are too big to have a travel bubble. May be they should consider matching specific cities. We saw a brief travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore. Then this was dropped when Hong Kong started to get more infections again, but the point is that it is easier to manage if you consider matching specific cities or smaller places.

@Colin, yes it is a prison. Sure you might be "allowed" to have a BBQ and go to the shop, but for people like me that have an international life, it's torture. I'm also in Western Australia where up until recently, we weren't even allowed to travel to other parts of Australia (surely against federal laws).

The worst part is that, as someone said earlier, one case is enough to send the politicians and the general public into a meltdown. It was supposed to only be suppressed, but the way the mentality is right now, Australians won't be able to travel for decades because the precedent has been set. Luckily my wife and daughter and I all have foreign passports as well as Australian, and we are already planning on leaving. Don't want to live somewhere akin to North Korea. We simply don't agree with the principle that has been set.

I am also sceptical this travel bubble will eventuate, with Qantas boss Alan Joyce recently saying it was possible there would be a widespread vaccine roll-out before travel bubbles went into effect. But as an overseas-born Australian with all of my family overseas, I still back the government's strict policies. It is worth it to be able to live a normal life here versus the closures and fear of going out in other places around the world. The government has also been upfront and has long said international travel was unlikely until the second half of 2021. Of course there are awful tradeoffs and I missed by sister's wedding and I know others that have missed funerals and other important family events, but I did the best I could participating via Zoom and I am happy to feel safe.

@ Colin - but you suggest that in London that there was no personal sacrifice for the first three months of this horror show. That's simply not true. Many, many places (such as Melbourne) have sacrificed much more for much longer than anyone in Sydney. London's current predicament, unfortunately, is not the exception right now; Sydney is. You're very lucky. But don't suggest that the rest of us, from New York, to Delhi, to Copenhagen, to Buenos Aires, Cape Town and Santiago were just too lazy or selfish to stay at home.

@ Chris - excellent summary of the reality. Can someone in Australia publish it?

I can give another data point from Australia, specifically Melbourne where we had the longest and strictest lockdown in Australia. It's like whiplash of emotions.

Our lockdown in Melbourne was brutal and felt disproportionate. It seemed a fool's errand trying to reach impossible elimination and even worse seeing other countries learning to "live" with Covid while we just put our heads in the sand. Now of course, it's not going great in most of those countries and hey, I'll eat my words: we did (for now) eliminate Covid.

It's great to see Australia open up and virtually Covid-free. On the other hand, even a SINGLE case in one state makes people panic hysterically and states are constantly closing borders to each other (if that doesn't happen today because of the 3 new cases you mentioned, it will be a BIG change from the usual snap-shut-and-lock-them-out approach we've seen all year). It's hard to enjoy and plan to use all our relative "freedoms" when you can't trust that even domestic borders will stay open.

Then there's the tens of thousands of Australians stuck overseas that can't get home. Thousands more who hold visas but still aren't allowed back in. And even more in Australia (like me) who have the opposite problem: we aren't allowed to leave Australia to see family overseas. You're locked in - or out. The collective response from both government and most Australians is that while that's "very sad" what those people are all facing, oh well, too bad, because this is what we have to do. In other words: the current status quo is "good enough" for most Australians and they don't care about the truly horrible impacts on others.

Covid has brought out plenty of good but also bad in Australia. We don't feel like a country: it's very much every state for itself and fighting against each other, coupled with an understandable desire to "eliminate" Covid while having no proportionate reaction or plan of how to sustain this. Still, the approach dismisses so much real suffering as acceptable collateral damage and, as if often the case, disproportionately affects those already most vulnerable. The irony of elimination is that even a vaccine is likely to result in having to manage and deal with at least some cases which is far more than we're willing to tolerate now. So then what?

So: things look very nice in Australia right now, but it's very fragile and has come at a heavy price, and we have a long road ahead.

I agree that I doubt the NZ travel bubble is anywhere along the way ahead any time soon.

As someone in Australia there has been a very myopic focus on Covid numbers.

This has come at the expense of human rights and civil liberties. A lot of the population have been brainwashed into believing that the only health and economic outcome that matters are Covid numbers.

Mental health problems are terrible particularly for those with families split across states or countries. A lot of business have gone broke. Australians cannot leave or return the country freely without government permission (as per North Korea). Returning travelers are forced into 14 day imprisonment with no fresh air, no exercise and insufficient food at their own expense.

However the “strong borders” approach plays well to an electorate that is insular and racist.

Cannot wait to escape this insular hermit kingdom once were allowed to leave!

@ Lucky - I do think that the Australian public health success has to be viewed in tandem with the decision to limit the number of Australians returning home from other countries. For six months now, just a few thousand people are allowed to return every week to a country the size of the USA.

This is a serious humanitarian crisis, and it's hard to justify when the country is recording almost 0 cases for weeks on end. Tens of thousands Australian citizens and residents are stuck abroad - many unemployed or broke, pregnant or elderly, and without assistance. Many have had their visas cancelled in the country in which they wait, with futility, as planeloads of empty seats depart.

If they were waiting at a land border, it'd look like a refugee camp in Central America.

Every other country in the region built up successful quarantine infrastructures over the past many months. Australia did not. It was a choice, and it is disgraceful. And is Australia doing better than Taiwan (same population, also an island) as a result? No.

So, Lucky, please remember that the successful public health response has come at a bigger price than people not being able to travel to Bali for their holidays. That response will forever be stained with the Australian Government's egregious and unnecessary violation of international law - law that enshrines the right of repatriation for citizens.

History will not be kind.

@Stuart
The 80% is totally wrong, even state-owned propaganda media in Germany is only brave enough to call for 40% which are fine with the restrictions and 30% who want even more restrictions.

And if you look at compliance you will see that 95%+ are ignoring most of the existing rules already.

Infact it was stupid to tighten the rules in Germany. Instead of meeting at restaurants with lots of distance and hygiene measures people are now meeting privately which causes more infections.

@Greg, as an Australian, I absolutely agree with you. I feel like I've been in prison the last 9 months, and certainly know of several families (I'm talking about among spouses and parents/young children - not just grandparents and adult children) that have been separated. Not to mention life is on hold for those with an "international life" of various descriptions.

Just a little correction though, the 5km rule only applied to Melbourne at that time. And at this moment life is pretty normal within the borders (sporting events, theatres, shops, hotels, and restaurants). Plus we have no mask requirement, including on domestic flights.
But still, can't wait to be released again.