United Airlines’ JFK Return Is Imminent: What’s The Strategy, Though?

We know that United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby thinks that one of the carrier’s biggest mistakes in the past was pulling out of New York Kennedy Airport (JFK). He’s committed to changing that, and the airline still seems to think that it’s on track to return to the airport in 2027.

A lot has changed since this was initially a big topic of conversation, including United seemingly no longer being interested in any sort of merger with JetBlue. So with United potentially within a year of returning to JFK, I’d like to talk a bit more about what that could look like, as I’m still not sure I fully understand the strategy.

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Why United left JFK, and how the airline plans to return

United obviously has a huge hub at Newark Liberty Airport (EWR), and different airline executives have different takes as to the overlap in demand between Newark and Kennedy.

Through late 2015, United had a relatively small presence at JFK, with a majority of the service consisting of premium transcontinental flights to Los Angeles (LAX) and San Francisco (SFO), with a product that was branded as p.s. The airline operated these flights with specially configured, three cabin Boeing 757-200s.

However, in late 2015, the airline made the decision to end service at JFK, and instead consolidate flights at EWR. The airline was reportedly losing money on these flights, and just couldn’t compete with American and Delta, which both had major hubs there.

Shortly after that decision was made, Kirby joined United, before eventually being appointed CEO. For as long as he has been at United, Kirby has felt that leaving JFK was one of the carrier’s biggest strategic blunders. In 2021, United briefly returned to JFK, operating transcon routes with Boeing 767-300ERs. However, the airline pulled out by 2022, as it couldn’t get permanent slots, and couldn’t scale service in a way that made sense.

Ever since, United has been determined to return to JFK. We know that United wants up to 20 daily slot pairs at the airport, to offer very frequent coast-to-coast service. So, where do things stand? As flagged by JonNYC, United Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella recently went on record to confirm that United is on track to return to JFK in 2027, which is just around the corner.

So, how will United secure the slots needed for service?

• We know that JetBlue and United have their Blue Sky partnership, and that includes the possibility of JetBlue giving United up to seven daily slot pairs at JFK as early as 2027 (with “up to” and “as early as” being the key terms here)
• United is reportedly exploring opportunities to acquire slot pairs from low margin carriers that aren’t doing well at JFK; however, those are unlikely to be very lucrative in terms of the timing of flights

I still have a hard time envisioning United’s JFK return

United management is generally on top of things when it comes to strategy, and I can make sense of most things. However, I still struggle to fully rationalize the plans for returning to JFK. That’s not to say it doesn’t make sense, or that I’m right, but here’s how I think through this:

• I struggle to see how JetBlue is getting sufficient upside from its partnership with United that it thinks it makes sense to give or trade seven slot pairs with United, just so that United can compete directly in two of JetBlue’s highest revenue markets
• Even if United managed to secure 20 daily slot pairs for premium transcontinental routes, how will the airline do that without hemorrhaging money in the market? The airline is at a disadvantage in terms of customer loyalty at JFK, has more limited connecting traffic on the JFK side, etc.
• I have to imagine that a major incentive with a return to JFK is being able to compete for Asia-bound traffic via the SFO hub, so the route could be used to fill connecting transpacific flights
• How will United compete with the ground experience offered by competitors, when you have Delta offering a dedicated Delta One check-in facility, Delta One Lounge, etc.?

On the surface, entering a market as a fourth place player, with limited opportunity to grow, little connectivity on the JFK side, and limited ability to have a great ground experience, seems like it could create a challenge.

Bottom line

United Airlines executives still insist the airline will return to JFK in 2027. This seems to involve getting some number of slots from JetBlue (as part of their partnership), and then possibly acquiring slots from some other carriers. It’s still not entirely clear how this will play out, though last we heard, the goal is to get 20 slot pairs, and aggressively fly to LAX and SFO.

I know Kirby thinks it was a big mistake to leave JFK, though I remain a bit confused by how the airline offering high frequency service from JFK to the West Coast, when the markets are already served by three large carriers, will be lucrative.

How do you see United’s JFK strategy playing out?