Germany Going Into Lockdown For November, Banning Hotel Stays

John Galt Sorry to disappoint you, but one after another the German Christmas markets this year are being cancelled. Latest was Nuremberg, Munich might close on short notice. I happen to know, because I check two German news sites daily. And in regards to Sweden: 'The Swedish Government has decided to suspend non-essential travel to Sweden from countries outside the EU. This ban will apply until December 22. This ban has been introduced to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 outbreak, and to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.'This is from October 25, and I guess with numbers shooting up that won't get any better. 'According to a study published Oct. 12 in the Journal of the American Medical Association, which pointed out that, of the countries the researchers investigated, Sweden and the U.S. essentially make up a category of two: they are the only countries with high overall mortality rates that failed to rapidly reduce those numbers as the pandemic progressed.' (Quote from Time magazine). Just saying, and maybe time to do a bit of research before you do not put your senior citizen travel life on hold.

Wow, so many pandemic 'experts' here.
I am no expert but to me it is very clear, countries' responses depended on the strategy they employed and implemented (properly) until vaccines are available and safe to use.
For those who have the advantage of being an island nation (meaning easier to control the incoming passenger through quarantine at hotels or home monitoring via electronic devices), 'hard suppression'(single digit cases) or 'elimination' (zero community transmission) strategy can be achieved.
Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea are some examples.
Autocratic countries such as China, Vietnam and Thailand and some African countries do employ this strategy as well because they can mobilise and force compliance easily.
Europe, Canada & Russia chose 'soft suppresion' (lower than few hundred cases a day) because of land border, movements and soften the effect to the economy. This is a very hard strategy to implement and transmission can spiral out of control easily. That's when lockdown needed to be employed as a circuit breaker.
Sweden is not a good example to compare to. The government did not have the power to force lockdown without a mandate and it would've taken them months to do so. Perhaps, if they did, over 5000 deaths would've been avoided through lockdown. So, the only choice they have is civic compliance and it worked to a certain extend.
Then there's USA, South America (exception of Uruguay) and India with haphazard or lack of national strategy which inevitably descend into 'let it rip' strategy. It's madness but it is a choice.

In the end, all of these strategies come with costs. Cost to the economy, human lives and livelihood. The balance is tough to manage but I rather live in a country that values human lives even if they are at the end. Economy will bounce back.

Good for Germany. Lock things down and tight. In the US we should have just closed down everything for a few months, levy harsh penalties on people and businesses who violate them and institute a massive contact tracing system (forget about privacy).

Many of these businesses should be closed. Restaurants shouldn't be open even for takeaway. I would even argue about shuttering mail for a few months. Put a complete freeze on society except for medical services, emergency services, and basic utilities like water, power, and refuse disposal.

Unfortunately some people not wearing masks and refusing to socially distance etc have resulted in a surge of cases and now the lockdowns come. Its sad to think that if people just did what they were supposed to and took this virus seriously it would never get to this point. While the numbers are bad in Europe in a few weeks I think we will see the US overwhelmed and a massive death toll in the US, so I would rather be in Europe right now. Lot of people are going to die in the US unnecessarily because some people are ignorant.

@mauipeter - In the last 14 days, Sweden reported 0.3 Covid-related deaths per 100 000 population. For Germany, the number is 0.7. Sweden is doing better, that's the fact. You base your claim on an old data from the spring when Sweden indeed was one of the worst-hit countries, but that was 6 months ago. Situation is very different today. So the question is, what did Germany's strict policies achieve, except lowering quality of life, when countries with much more relaxed attitudes (not only SE but also FI, NO, EE...) are outperforming them in Covid statistics?

I'm afraid that we will be stuck in an endless cycle, until we'll find courage to at least consider that we're dealing with the pandemic the wrong way.

Not sure about the relevance of "personal freedom" narrative, we're discussing Europe, not the US.

LOL @ those who bring examples like New Zealand and Taiwan as an example and say Europe or North America did a bad job.

New Zealand is the armpit of the world with more sheep than humans (5 million - NYC has 9 million people alone), Taiwan doesn't have many people either (22M) and also locked down all borders early. Taiwan did indeed do a good job because they don't trust China and saw the threat of the CCP engineered virus early.

Australia is a joke. 3-4 months of lockdown under a radical nanny government that forbids it's citizens to leave the country.

Something like this doesn't work in Europe and North America that are economic powerhouses.

Julian says:
October 28, 2020 at 5:35 pm

Every article about her needs to begin with “German strongwoman, Angela Merkel…”

How many more years will this fascist thug cling to power?

*********

Don't use words like 'fascist' that you clearly have no idea the meaning of and especially when Germany in involved. Nor is she a 'thug'

She isn't clinging to power. She is Chancellor of Germany because her party wins the most seats in the elections to the Federal German Parliament and then she has to negotiate with partners to form a coalition government and gain a majority in Parliament.

A google search would have enlightened you as to her retirement plans.

After months of lock down, it only proves that approach failed. Let us not discount the mental health issues a lockdown causes along with other medical issue. Florida was taking heat from global media, yet our hospitals are at normal capacity, we only had limited lockdowns for a much shorter period. Perhaps Sweden has this figured out with heard immunity and the rest of Europe needs to learn from this.
Looks like Americans will be spending their tourist dollars stateside for a while.

Everyone that talks about how lockdowns are pointless should read Peter K's comment. The lockdown is not meant to eliminate the virus, it's meant to stop the hospitals from being overwhelmed. Similar to Germany, here in France 60% of ICU beds are occupied (and depending on the region/city, much higher %). The goal is to stop the spread before they fill up, because if it they all fill up the death rate will speak when people can't get proper treatment.

So people that say lockdowns are just slowing down the inevitable... that's the point.

@The Original Donna

"Lockdowns work. Italy was hit hard earlier this year and instituted a 12 week lockdown that saved a lot of lives. "

Yet, Italy is going back into lockdown.

So you might say lockdowns work to slow the spread but once the lockdown ends the virus will begin to spread again.

@ Chris
"We endured 112 days of this and now we have close to 0 daily cases. So it does work"

Until the spread starts again......... Sorry to say that is how a virus works

New Zealand and Australia are both susceptible to a new wave. Unless they stamp out all virus and lock down the country forever, don't allow sailors from Russia. I think Lucky had a post on that.

At the end of the Covid-19 pandemic we will then find out the best approach to the virus. I think it is still too early.

Would recommend not publishing "rough math." I get the points you're making, but the picture it paints is a bit murky.

"The US saw a high of 85,000 cases in a day within the past week, compared to 14,700 cases in Germany, so the “peak” date in the US is 45% worse as of now." Could it be relative number of tests performed driving this and not the difference in population size, as you imply from the earlier point?

"While Germany has seen a peak of under 50 deaths per day in recent weeks, the US saw over 1,200 deaths in a single day, so in terms of deaths Germany is doing significantly better." A more relevant metric would be a mortality rate instead of absolute counts.

"39% of people who died from COVID in the US were obese, in a country where 42% of the entire population were obese. Let that sink in."

Oh dear me. Statistics. It's not about whether those who have died from Covid-19 are representative for the whole population by whatever characteristic. It's whether obesity is a major factor of excess risk i.e. whether those who were obese and have died from Covid-19 could have survived if they had led a healthier lifestyle.

We can start the conversation around the former once the whole population has been infected, or if we somehow are able to ensure infections happen in a representative manner across factors like income, age, race, health status, employment status, access to healthcare, genetic predisposition etc.

To those saying “lockdown” doesn’t work, seriously?
I live in Melbourne like a few others who have already posted before me.
We went from over 800+ cases daily to 0
Guess what we did? Yes that’s right, a hard lockdown
No shops were allowed to be open other than supermarkets, pharmacies, post & banks.
You were not allowed to leave your house unless it was for one hour of exercise, essential food shopping & medical treatments. On top of this you had to stay within a 5 klm radius of your home. Working from home was mandatory as was wearing of masks at all times outside of your home.
We endured 112 days of this and now we have close to 0 daily cases. So it does work

It is so frustrating for me to read the comments here and the fear level and the fact that people are seemingly totally the effect of this virus. You can do things to help your body besides staying away from people and being terrified of the virus. In any pandemic, including the Black Plague there were people who were not effected. You want to do what you can to become like those that survive. It’s not random, there are characteristics you can achieve.

The correct thing to do is to find which things you can do to increase your chances of doing well if you run into the disease or if you get the disease. Some things you can’t change such as your age and your blood type. Other things you can certainly do something about. High Vit D levels are highly correlated with good outcomes and low are correlated with bad outcomes. Fauci says he takes it so for those of you who can’t do anything without his ok, there you go, you have it. Get those levels up before the winter. If you have dark skin you are even more at risk for low D levels. This isn’t rocket science. Viruses cull the “weak.” If you are deficient in certain minerals or vitamins then you are more at risk. Check out Dr. Paul Marik’s protocol. He is the Chief of Pulmonary and Critical Care East Virginia Medical School.

End result for me is two family members who had very mild cases we treated at home and feel better than ever now with no residual problems and who now have immunity. I was around them constantly and never got it. You can do many things to make your body stronger and more capable of dealing with this virus.

As a Deutschamerikaner I completly miss the point of what the government is planning. Sure, the lockdown makes sense and probably saves lives, but what´s the endgame here? We had low numbers, then we opened up, now we have high numbers, now we lock down, then we spend roughly 200 billion EUR for the last lockdown, and now we do another one, and then we open up... And so on.

China got it right imo. They locked down and closed the border. 2 weeks in government managed quarantine. Seems to work. Having voluntary tests at airport and all land borders open doesnt seem to work so well. So, I miss the point of what their plan is other than planning from now till then.

I live in a European country with approximately 5.3 million people, and we’ve had 280 deaths so far with the average age being 82. Infection rates have increased dramatically over the last few weeks, but so far very few deaths as it’s mainly been young adults infected. There are basically three groups that drive the numbers: young adults, immigrants and guest workers.

The rules here are pretty lax, with masks only recommended in situations where 1 metre distance can not be maintained. As of tomorrow, the rules are being tightened but we’re still able to go to the pub, the cinema and gyms. Also, there is a difference between quarantine for contacts (do not meet others, but you can go outside and even the shops if necessary) vs isolation for those who’ve tested positive. Testing is not mandatory for arrivals from overseas, but quarantine is.

The vast majority of people have followed recommendations of keeping your distance, washing hands and staying home if you’re sick. We’re also blessed with a sensible government and our health authorities have done a remarkable job in keeping us informed.