Should You Plan Future Travel Right Now?

There are many unknown variables right now. When is the country of residence opening up again, when the destination country, when the transit point(s)? Is it a temporary relieve, because more infection waves are to come? What are the schedules? Which airlines and hotels are still in business?

That's why I have decided not make any bookings for now. But this does not mean I'm not planning any future trips. And once there is an indication, I will try to make bookings asap.

However, there is another factor to consider: My employer has already made it quite clear that we may not be able to take leave once things open up, because we'll have to work like crazy ... So I guess short trips are more likely to go through, as compared to long holidays.

@Ned - Agreed. And I’m not trying to argue with or convince anyone. This isn’t an agenda I want to push, or “revel” in, as I’m accused of above. I’m horrified by what’s going and wish nothing more than to wake up from what is surely just a nightmare, to have it be December again.

I’m not accusing anyone of “denial” about the virus itself. We all see what’s happening. People here are smarter than that (I hope).

The denial is centered on beliefs about how quickly and easily we move on from this. And maybe a misunderstanding of global economics, which have just experienced perhaps one of the most bizarre and profound shocks ever. We’ve had vicious wars before, to be sure, but never have governments actively and bluntly forced their populations to *not* work on such a massive scale. We really don’t know what’s going to happen - but we do know that shutting down an economy is almost universally a disaster in any society.

First off, two general comments:

- We all agree "winter is coming" (but not for how long"
- The economy always provides ways for people who want to spend money to do so, so yes, travel will be available, maybe not easily.

Recommendations for travel decision making:
- Keep in mind travel always involves varying levels of risk, so don't be too surprised if things go south.
- As this is a riskier time to travel (duh) don't if losing the money/points/time/life right *now* would be overtly detrimental to you, or those you care for or care for you.
- Recognize many of us are mourning and/or panicing our well-laid travel plans, or plans to be, and both give space, and don't make rash decisions (study those cancellation scenarios).
- Take advantage of planning something different closer to home that you might have not done before that involves fewer variables that might interrupt travel.
- Don't be shy about being a bottom price feeder, after all, suppliers are setting the prices, and they know unless they have a minimum number of customers to start the ball rolling and write those glowing reviews they will go out of business - so give them some.

Yeah, and I'm mourning just having cancelled my 30th anniversary South Africa safari from NYC in business on miles, as I doubt I'll get the same routing (SAA nonstop 1-2-1 seating in brand new plane) and advantageous layovers allowing seeing additional cities at no cost. Just hoping that the travel insurance will pay off the way I want it to, but regardless, not reserving any trips for a while until things calm down.

But I am still doing my bucket list research, know where I'd like to go next, and am ready to take advantage of deals when we are ready to go. Nothing like a multi-year plan to stay focused on the prize!

If there's one thing that is clear from 90% of these comment: Americans are eternally an optimistic bunch. However, they are an awful lot of blinker being warn as well.

The US is behind the curve. First Asia, then Europe, next (and not quite yet) America.

We can only hope and pray this nightmare ends as quickly as it started. Reality says we're looking at a year. Asia relaxed and now it's kicking off again there. Central to this retrogression is travel and so, worldwide, I suspect, borders will remain closed for longer than may even be necessary.

We're learning how to do business electronically and this is the new reality; why meet face to face (bad luck to those who clock up worldwide travel at corporate expense).

And to those of you concerned about loosing your elite mile... Better than losing your health or the life of an elderly or sick loved one.

@Todd - absolutely. The US will "get back to business" sooner than epidemiologists advise and the rest of the world will impose quarantines on us, if they even let us get that close. I escaped from Uruguay on March 16th, two weeks earlier than planned, and they were starting to close down, especially on people from hot zones. That would include (and likely will continue to include) the US. Argentina started by blocking visas to people from hot zones, including the US, while I was still down there, then they shut the border. They will open up the same way, gradually, starting with visitors from countries that adhered to best practices.

So my plans for a fall trip (we usually do a fall and winter trip as we live on the beach south of Boston and summer is nice here) are on hold. I have no confidence that the world will be open to us by the fall. I suspect that we will trade off a deep hit now for death by a thousand cuts going forward.

@Reed I find it most insulting that you place me in the category of a Trump Virus Denier. I am anything but. I was getting lambasted here, and in other blogs, for the past two months because I kept to the idea that this was going to bad, much worse than we were preparing for, and that people were not taking it seriously enough. It's unfortunate that Italy had to pay the price to wake up the world. Which it did.

With that said, regardless of Trump's idiocy of trying to put an Easter timeline to this ending, State Governments and politicians are saving the day along with brave health care workers and experts. Is it going to get worse? Yes. Is it going to get better? Yes.

You are touting an extreme viewpoint. You're like Bernie Sanders talking economics with Rush Limbaugh. Each of you relishing your spot in the limelight of a far leaning viewpoint. One painting a dire dystopian future as the other argues it's all rosy and overblown. Neither of you is right. Neither of you is productive. Like most everything in life the answer is normally found in the middle. One day I hope our society returns to it.

I find few now that are going around saying this is going to be easy and over soon. Or heading to Vegas in May. But, the signs are there that the virus itself will run its primary course in a few months. Putting us into late May or June that things START to return to normal. That does not mean everyone starts running around and licking the railings at Metro stations in celebration. It means a start to slowly and carefully reemerge. Italy is turning the corner. Spain as well. Germany is stabilizing. The signs are there.

Will the economy take time? Of course. We were due for a correction anyway. This will take a year or two of massive infrastructure projects and stimulus to bring things back. Airlines and hotels will take 2-3 years. But the end of a deep recession will be there and it will not be some dystopian world in the process. Remember the Roaring 20's you see in movies and read about? It came just after the devastation of the Spanish Flu. Now though we have better technology, unique abilities we did not have then, and a banking system that 2008 helped to make stronger and more responsible we are far better positioned for a fast turnaround.

By mid-summer you will see cases still emerging, sure. But I am going to predict that we will have therapeutic drugs that help by then, better testing and preparedness, a significant part of the population with antibodies, and a vaccine just around the corner (I am doubting it is going to be a year for it given that the Chinese started trials earlier and also due to the world effort of scientists and doctors working in a war like setting).

Be concerned. Stay at home. But use this time usefully to be part of the solution rather than the doomsayer of foreboding. It can't be healthy for you.

My view is:
1. DON"T GO ON CRUISES. Everything we've learned is that cruise ships are clearly hot-beds for disease transmission. Until they change their business practices to prioritize safety, I would suggest that anyone over the age of 55 or with an underlying health condition to avoid cruises for the foreseeable future. Heck, even younger people should probably skip it. Just too risky.

2. I'm hopeful that we will be able to get back to some form of domestic plane travel by late May. We have a small wedding in June (provided it doesn't get cancelled) that we are likely going to try and attend.

3. International travel is trickier and likely on hold longer. We have an Asia trip in late summer and then one at the end of the year (both on points). So worst comes to worst, we get the points back but I'm mentally prepared to cancel if it's not the right time to travel.

Reed is spot-on, and most of you knuckleheads simply are in denial because you don't want to accept facts. We have entered a new Great Depression. It is worldwide. It is going to last a long, long time.

Because going to work will result in millions of deaths. India stopped working today. India. Whole swaths of the world's economy are shutting down, and they are not going to snap back quickly. The disruptions from this are going to be profound and will change all of our lives.

Governments will fall. There will be anarchy, revolutions (failed and successful), repression, extreme societal upheavals. The next few years are going to make the 1930s look like a walk in the park.

I'd love to be proved wrong. We'll see.

I don’t expect international travel to fully open up for at least 12-18 months. When it does it’s going to still come with many restrictions. Citizens and residents of countries that are locking down hard now will find it easier to travel then. The unchecked spread in the US is going to make it a lot harder for Americans to travel internationally in the near to mid future. I also wouldn’t be surprised if many countries need proof of Covid-19 vaccination (like many countries do for yellow fever) before they let you know. Production of vaccines and getting it to the everyone is at least 12 months or more away.

So in a nutshell, I think your view on international travel is too optimistic.

@Robin, right on sister! People like Reed are unbelievably pessimistic. Yes, economy will suffer but not if we reboot quickly and cut this panic sh¡t. Did no one read that the people at Imperial College revised their dire forecast of calamity by a factor of 25...down! Meaning they overstated presumed deaths by a factor of 25!!! These are the fools who sparked this fire. Travel and life will resume. But only if we decide to do so. No way will we stay indoors for 18 months, much less much more than 18 days. Human nature abhors a vacuum.

@Nathan @Stuart - I think what I'm saying sounds more apocalyptic... to people who are in denial about the seriousness of this, and think that everything is going to blow over easily by June vacation season. I don't think my worst case apocalyptic scenarios about this are guaranteed to happen it totality. I don't think this is going to be the end of the world. I don't think I'm going to die, or anything. But I also don't think there's any chance that anything returns to normal in "a few weeks" or by this summer, as so many people seem to be so self-assured about on here (which is a form of... denial). I have friends who we talked to earlier tonight who are still asking if and when we're buying ticket to Vegas in early May. They didn't even know Vegas has all but closed.

To the point about the model of "years and years" of virus - no, I don't think that's going to happen either. Don't get me wrong (and that might be my fault). I just bring it up as a counterpoint to people who seem rock solid assured that some kind of vaccine is a *guarantee* that will nearly immediately restore everything back to normal. There's no guarantee of that, and we've never developed a coronavirus vaccine before. This is a unique situation.

@Nathan - the Imperial College London model, which apparently has been taken seriously by the UK government, European governments, and even the US federal government, is where the "18 months" timeline comes from. It makes me mad too. I thought it was ridiculous. But it's being taken as gospel by all the people calling for endless lockdowns. I too think it's catastrophic and apocalyptic to picture 18 months of on-off lockdowns in a battle to suppress the virus, until a vaccine is available. But until I see people actually coming to grips with the scale of what that study is calling for - and perhaps trying to figure out a solution for reopening the economy *even if* the virus isn't totally under control again, then we're in for all the economic disaster I described above.

To be clear: I don't think the virus itself is what's going to screw up the world. A <1% fatality rate is bad, but it's not the Black Plague or Ebola. No. It's the *consequences* of our official responses to it, which I think are spiraling totally out of control and are going to cause all the lasting damage I'm fearful of. You want to call me irrational? Fine. But I think the real irrationality is coming from those who, as I say above, insist that "everything must lock down and stay that way" until the virus is totally gone or totally under control. Epidemiologists tells us that's going to take months or more than a year. So until we grapple with that and are willing as a society to accept that we have to balance virus risk against economic risk (and not just for "fat cat 401k"s), we're going to drag ourselves into a mostly self-imposed disaster.

@Lucky - We just got back from a weeks stay at the Bodrum Edition in September. LOVED IT! Especially the in-room steam room, luxury bedding, breakfast and mesmerizing pool! Very intimate and private resort. Advise though on booking a United Airlines business class award from MEX-EWR in October with some of my Singapore airlines miles that are about to expire. Any news from Singapore on how they are handling miles expiration coming up soon, or how they handle partner airline cancellations?

My current projections are I will be back to working in office at some point in early May. Ramping up and maybe doing some short driving trips for meetings around then as well. By June I am cautiously planning to start full on travel, domestic first with overseas to follow.

That's if we are all still alive. And this is not made worse with Trump touting that, "We need to get back to work, very soon. We need to work!"

No, I am not a fortune teller. But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

@Robin - I think there will be passenger flights, for sure. I didn't say that all air travel will permanently disappear. Just that, even if the virus fades away, several more months of lockdowns will turn the world into a social and economci disaster zone. The flights that do remain through this year and next will become critical transport, not leisure carriers. I will probably lose my job, my husband might too. Immigration restrictions will likely persist for several years, as political turmoil sweeps a bunch of nationalist or revolutionary governments into power around the world (a direction we were headed in *before* the virus!).

I didn't say it will be physically impossible to travel. I'm saying that points-based leisure travel on fancy airlines to resort areas worldwide... has disappeared and may not return for years, or even generations.

@Lucky - awesome post, my reasoning is very similar to yours. I have a huge trip in the US (overseas for me) booked starting June 24th and I will keep that reservation for now since everything is flexible and fully cancellable, but I fully expect that we will probably need to reschedule (and probably pay more) for summer 2021. Will keep my bookings for the fall and winter, but expect that some schedule changes might occur and realise that these trips may have to be postponed or cancelled as well.

I have a lot (millions and millions) of SAS points and would love to redeem many *A award flights right now but SK shut down the award booking service a week ago and I don't expect them to re-open it anytime soon. Oh well. I have however booked a revenue flight in Air China business class around New Years since the price was exceptional even by their standards and I don't think that they will go out of business. Let's hope that there will be more deals to come :)

Among so many other things to be upset and scared about right now, it feels indulgent to think about leisure travel - one of the things that my husband and I basically live for multiple times a year. But I do, and I'm already deeply depressed and sad that our old lifestyle is now, certainly and permanently, gone. We travelled to 5 continents, and took almost monthly domestic trips, making great use of the SW Companion Pass for the last 4 years. Just a month ago, were still planning summer trips to Hawaii, Canada, and Alaska, and discussing a late autumn trip to Australia.

I am 100% sure none of that is going to happen now. I've cancelled all those plans, and am making no other travel plans, on any timeline. I have fond memories of that era, and I'm glad we were priviliged enough to go where we did, when we did.

Trying to push past my denial about everything: I don't think we'll be travelling internationally for many years. And I'm sure we won't be doing any domestic flying for at least the rest of this year, except for emergency purposes (i.e. if a relative dies, and it's deemed safe enough to travel to a funeral [if the funeral is even allowed to happen], and there's enough masks available for the public to start using). That's the reality, and it's devestating, but it's the most likely scenario now. I'm just shaking my head at the idea - although I understand it and was there myself a few weeks ago - that this is all going to blow over in a few weeks or months, and the world will return to "normal".

Every hour and day that places go into deeper, economically disasterous lockdowns, and every time the death toll mounts in a new country, it's becoming clearer that there's NO "normal" anymore. The sooner we can accept that, the sooner we can learn to adapt.

Few to none of us are going back to anything similar to the lives we had before this. Not even close. The days of widespread leisure travel - and luxury business travel, especially - are dead and gone. So many airlines are going to collapse or be nationalized this year, and flying will eventually become focused on critical humanitarian needs - not leisure. Economies don't just switch back on after being shut down for months on end. NO economy in the world can function or survive for long - socialist or capitalist - if there's no production, and people idle and wither (and die) in their homes at mind-bogglingly large scale. We're looking at 30, or maybe 50%+ unemployement by the summer if lockdowns last more than a month or two - and public health experts are calling for many months, many seasons, and potentially 1.5 or even 2 years of such lockdowns. I've even heard people suggesting that social distancing will just have to be "permanent" in our society, perhaps because a vaccine will never be found (we haven't found one for HIV yet), or the virus will always just mutate.

Even if the lockdowns are lifted in some places in a few months, there will be massive social and political screams from well-meaning people (often those priviliged with remote-work compatible jobs) to keep them in place so as to not "sacrifice" anyone else to the virus. We're only a couple weeks / months into this, and the politics have already centered on the false choice between "save as many people as possible, economy be damned" and "open the economy, sacrifice the olds".

As it stretches on, we're also going to see massive labor and social unrest among those desperate to get back to some kind of work, virus suppression be damned. It will lead to conflict. There will almost certainly be wars, somewhere, if not here at home in America or Europe.

I don't think most people get it yet: we've entered the biggest social and political shift, and most massive economic depression the world has ever seen. We're already in it. Think about the kind of social, political, and economic changes that occurred between 1929 and WWII (and beyond), and multiply that by 3x. As we sit here, today, there are more people immidiately out of productive work (over a billion, including India now) than at any time in history. And more people are being put out of work every hour. I have no good answers or recommendations as to when the "medicine" of lockdowns are worse than the "disease" of the virus. I doubt we're there yet. But I have no faith that we'll all recognize that point when it's reached, and we'll instead blow past it.

I just opened up the Southwest app and thought about trying to book a ticket to see my parents, over Memorial Day, 1200 miles away in Washington State. They are in lockdown, and I'm desperately worried they are at risk and will get sick, go to a hospital and die alone, and I'll have never had a chance to see them. But I know that my travelling, through an airport even today, will put them more at risk. I doubt that risk is going to disappear at all before late May. I may try to drive, if the state borders don't close soon, and at least be able to see them from a few yards distance outside the house.

While there is likely a non-zero chance that things will be better by then, I have a Europe trip scheduled for the end of June that I anticipate not being able to take. If there is a saving grace, there was enough of a schedule change that I can get the ticket refunded, even if there are no travel waivers or policies in place at that point. Everything else for this trip was either refundable (hotels booked on points) or had not been booked yet, so to that end, I'm far better off than most people with pending travel.

Otherwise, I have been hoping to take some sort of vacation around Labor Day and right before Christmas that I'm hoping still will be in the cards. I haven't booked anything yet (and I probably won't until the beginning of summer at the very earliest), but if there are still significant issues come the end of August, then the world is going to be in for a far worse ride than we already are experiencing.

I've already cancelled my cruise trip this July. Even if it's all a go, I can't imagine going onto a cruise. The last thing I want is to be quarantined for 14 days (perhaps longer) on a docked boat. I've also planned a new trip for July domestically as foreign countries' airports can shut down anytime and I don't want to be stuck in a place where I have to pay exorbitant fee to an airline (or several airlines) to get home. I still have a trip planned for mid September which I'm hoping will stand. Currently planning a trip for next March as I can't imagine this thing will drag out for a year. But then again, who knows....

Lucky,

I think you are a bit too pessimistic on the summer for domestic travel. Most people are talking about restrictions on staying home / eating out being eased anywhere from late April through early June. There are no restrictions on domestic travel now - only recommendations (airlines and Amtrak are still running). Once advisories start to come off, some people will want to travel domestically immediately. International travel may be more of a late summer / early Fall timeline.

That said it doesn’t make any sense to book travel (that is not refundable) now

@aem

Thanks for the positive thoughts!

I'm hopeful that by June/July things will have settled down everywhere (actually hoping it's sooner just because I don't want to see anyone suffer physical or economic fallout).

@Jeff:
I'd be surprised (OK, maybe not anymore) if they don't extend the waiver. I know KE waited a while to extend their waivers (fortunately they cancelled our flight so that freed things up right there). Hoping you make out OK on all fronts/ends. Very disappointing to miss one's honeymoon, I know. Hang in there!

You're in denial.

"Travel", as we have so recently known it, ain't coming back anytime in the next year (at the most wildly optimistic). If things go well, maybe 18 months, more likely it'll be longer than that. It could easily be years before things get back to anything like they were a month ago.

Take a look at how long the last worldwide great depression (1929) lasted and how long it took for things to settle down and get back to "normal". Hint: things didn't really settle down to "normal" until the 1950s (WWII both helped and hindered that recovery).

I agree with everything but have a situation not covered. I have our honeymoon flight booked on SAA with Aeroplan miles in mid July. Waiting would be the obvious thing to do except that until March 31 Aeroplan is offering free award cancellations, which would save me around $200 for two tickets. Seems unlikely this trip will happen, but if there were a even a 40% of it happening it would be worth waiting and risking the $200 to cancel after March 31. Not sure right now if there is even that much chance of things being good enough, especially given that we are serious about our civic responsibility to practice social distancing to mitigate the risk to everyone. Any thoughts about whether I should cancel now for free or wait?

I had to cancel a bucket list honeymoon to the Maldives that was supposed to start 4/15/20. Right now I'm out about $2,000 (we can't get CFAR insurance in New York until last week). Trip was paid for, etc. June of 2019. Took me 2 years to get the miles needed. Hoping AA changes waivers through May 1st, then I can probably get back all but $1600 (award booking fees, non-refundable fee from one resort, etc.)

We're trying to re-schedule for NEXT April. Assuming Etihad and Korean Air are still around so I can use the miles. Unfortunately resort prices for same resorts are about $4,000 more currently. I already made up my mind if it doesn't happen then it will never happen.

So far we're both still healthy, although husband may not have a job if this continues, so that'll mean a no-go. Can't book until June anyway for miles, so at least gives some time.

I'd like to think that a year from now we'll be in a better spot, but nothing's guaranteed/certain. I don't want to get my hopes up as I took the whole cancellation very hard. I really had my heart set on this trip. I'll survive, there's others in worse shape than I right now. (neighbors are unemployed or "stay at home" and either burning through all their vacation time or taking NO PAY).