Yesterday I first wrote about the rumor that United might be interested in JetBlue, in some form or another. I can’t personally vouch for this, but it makes for an interesting theoretical discussion. I want to provide an update, as United has made a regulatory filing regarding this, and I’m not actually sure it’s much of a denial?
In this post:
United reportedly interested in JetBlue
@xJonNYC is known for breaking a lot of news in the airline industry, and in recent days, he has shared a very interesting rumor. Specifically, he writes about how United is reportedly interested in JetBlue, either in the form of a merger, or buying assets, or something.
He’s not sure what exactly this would look like, but he’s confident that this is being analyzed internally, and even that some of United’s Star Alliance partners (presumably those with which the airline has a joint venture) have been briefed about this topic, given how it could impact partnerships.
I have sources telling me UA is heavily looking at B6 — merger or buying assets or something else I’m not remotely sure at the moment.
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 29, 2025 at 2:38 PM
so, as the hours tick by one looks for evidence to two things: 1. is the rumor credible (as in not just idle gossip or people just passing along low-level chatter,) and 2. what is the likelihood that something will happen along the lines of the rumor. On point 2…
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
…I have no additional inkling or indication in any way as to if anything like this is considered likely to happen. On point 1, however, I now have a great deal of confidence that this rumor is completely solid.
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
obviously the world's focus will be very much elsewhere for a while, just noting that it's my belief there may actually be a bit more oozing out about this (UA's interest in B6.) And kindly note at no time do I indicate that B6 is expressing this interest– this is all from UA's..
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 12:26 PM
.. perspective (at least that's the extent of my knowledge on the subject anyway)
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 12:27 PM
So again, the emphasis is on this being a rumor, and it’s anyone’s guess to what extent this materializes, if at all. After all, it could be that these discussions are happening internally, but don’t go beyond that. Furthermore, it’s even stated that the goal might be something other than a merger, though we don’t know what that would look like.
What United says about potential merger activity
Yesterday, United filed an SEC 8-K regarding the rumors, with the full statement reading as follows:
It has come to the Company’s attention that there may be rumors spreading among certain of our investors regarding United’s involvement in a potential strategic transaction with another airline. The Company is not in negotiations or discussions with any other airline regarding a merger, acquisition or similar strategic transaction and has not been in any recent discussions with any airlines regarding the same. As indicated by United’s strong earnings results and outlook provided on January 21, 2025, the Company has great momentum and a bright future ahead.
Interestingly, I wouldn’t actually consider this to be much of a denial of any rumor. United states that it’s not in discussions or negotiations with another airline. The rumor was never that there were discussions between airlines, but rather that an analysis was happening internally.
So I find it noteworthy how seriously United is taking this, though at the same time, it’s not actually a denial of what had been rumored.
JetBlue would be a great fit for United
JetBlue is an airline that’s generally loved by passengers. There’s only one major issue — the airline struggles to make money (minor detail, I know!). Unlike some low cost carriers, JetBlue isn’t hemorrhaging money. However, the airline struggles to even consistently break even, despite having a strong market position in some major airports.
Several months ago, I wrote about how JetBlue could be an attractive acquisition target for several airlines. Specific to the United rumor, I can totally see how United would find value in acquiring JetBlue:
- We know that United has desperately been wanting to return to New York (JFK), but can’t get available gate space; JetBlue has a huge presence there
- We know that United has been looking closely at opening a hub in Florida, and JetBlue has a hub in Fort Lauderdale (FLL)
- JetBlue and United have largely complementary fleets, as JetBlue primarily has Airbus A320-family aircraft, which United also has; I’m sure United also wouldn’t mind adding Airbus A220s to its fleet, as they’re lovely planes
United as an airline is very much trending upwards. Not only is United now the world’s largest airline, but it’s increasingly in Delta’s league when it comes to profitability. There’s no denying that a JetBlue acquisition would not only help United become even more dominant in terms of size, but also give it access to the two markets it’s most hoping to expand to (JFK and Florida).
Now, I think it goes without saying that American would probably also be mighty interested in acquiring JetBlue, given that the two airlines had a Northeast Alliance, which was ultimately blocked by regulators under the Biden administration. JetBlue could greatly help American in both New York (JFK) and Boston (BOS).
However, given the respective financial performance of United and American, I suspect the former would be in more of a position to win in any bidding war.
Would this deal get regulatory approval, though?
Of course a logical question would be whether an airline like United acquiring JetBlue would get regulatory approval. Under the Biden administration, we saw JetBlue try to acquire Spirit, only for the Department of Justice to block that, arguing it was important to maintain ultra low cost carrier competition.
I thought that was the wrong decision — in the meantime, Spirit has upended its business model, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and it’s anyone’s guess what the carrier’s future holds.
Of course I think it’s safe to say that the Trump administration will take a different approach to consolidation than the Biden administration did. Would this deal get approved? I mean, that goes beyond my area of expertise, though personally I wouldn’t be surprised if it were allowed…
That being said, call it a hot take, but I’m not sure more industry consolidation is a bad thing. And I’m not even sure United acquiring JetBlue would be bad for consumers. Why? Well, simply put, an airline can only afford to have tickets subsidized by shareholders for so long before something needs to change.
Specific to United acquiring JetBlue, let’s think about this for a second:
- This would be massively positive for JetBlue employees, who would be getting major pay increases, to align with United’s pay scales
- I’d argue that having a second major global airline with a hub in South Florida would be good news for consumers
- This would be great news for competition in New York City; currently Delta and American have a much bigger presence at Kennedy and LaGuardia, so it would be great to get a more third player there
- United is simply in a much better position to leverage JetBlue’s assets to turn a profit, especially given that airlines largely make money through their loyalty programs nowadays, and don’t actually earn that much flying passengers
- Fundamentally what’s important is that the airline industry maintains and grows capacity, and keeping airlines not making money alive doesn’t do a whole lot to forward that goal; I mean, just look at all the new aircraft deliveries that JetBlue has deferred
If United were to acquire JetBlue, I suspect it would be similar to Alaska acquiring Hawaiian, where the Hawaiian operation would go from money-losing to almost profitable overnight, due to simply better utilizing assets.
I think the reality that some people refuse to accept is that US airline tickets are essentially subsidized by credit card agreements. Even the most profitable airlines (Delta and United) have virtually non-existent margins if we’re going to compare passenger revenue per available seat mile to cost per available seat mile. Large airlines have the power to offer much more lucrative loyalty programs, because there’s power in scale.
Bottom line
We’ll see if anything comes of this, but rumor has it that United is interested in JetBlue, in some form or another. This could be anything from a merger to a slot deal. I’m not surprised that United has this interest, given that the current management team wants to return to JFK Airport and open a hub in Florida, and both of those are areas where JetBlue could help a lot.
Now, if anything actually comes of this is a different story, but in the meantime, we’ll mark this as “developing,” and I figure it makes for an interesting aviation geek discussion. It’s worth noting that United has issued a statement denying that discussions or negotiations are taking place with other airlines, but no one ever claimed they were — the claim is that these discussions are happening internally, for now.
What do you make of the prospect of United investing in JetBlue?
What ever became of the 19% share LH held back around 2008? Or were those just rumours back then?
UA and LH are probably the strongest partners of Star Alliance and if indeed LH is already owning 19% and UA would buy another 19% it could potentially be an interesting way to circumvent anti trust issues.
The rule is the merger negotiations must be publicly disclosed if the merger is material and non-disclosure makes other disclosures misleading.
So, if United was to start discussions with Jetblue, they would need to disclosue it very quickly, now that they have a disclosure out there.
If they were seriously considering acquiring Jetblue, they would not have said anything at all to avoid being in this pickle.
Lufty doubled their money and cashed out in 2015.
Ben you’re either too young or haven’t done your research… United had a massive hub in Miami, which they frittered away over the years… It was a gateway to their South American operations… Which have since dwindled
Be funny if Southwest got in there and snuck them all.
It'd end Southwest's reliance on Boeing (which IMO has become more of a handicap than advantage, nowadays), would gain them their largest operation of all (400+ flights) in the country's largest city, would get them back Ft. Lauderdale.
It is clear that WN does not do well in legacy carrier hubs... but then neither does B6
the problem w/ NYC is that all 3 NYC airports and the only 2 carriers that have the financial resources to grow are not likely to receive DOJ approval to do so - and it makes no sense for any existing carrier to sell assets on a piecemeal basis - which is why it never made sense...
It is clear that WN does not do well in legacy carrier hubs... but then neither does B6
the problem w/ NYC is that all 3 NYC airports and the only 2 carriers that have the financial resources to grow are not likely to receive DOJ approval to do so - and it makes no sense for any existing carrier to sell assets on a piecemeal basis - which is why it never made sense that B6 would sell assets to UA in order for UA to compete in the same high profile markets that B6 serves.
Some people want so badly for someone else to fix somebody else's problems that they don't really think through what they want to happen
"It is clear that WN does not do well in legacy carrier hubs"
You mean, other than growing their largest operation, in a legacy carrier's now busiest hub, right?
DEN being the clear exception.
They pulled out of EWR fairly quickly, downsized PHL, have been in and out of IAH and are out again, and ATL, the biggest ATL focus city/hub at one time is a fraction of its former self.
An exception doesn't change the "rule."
and, let's also not forget that WN was the largest carrier in the local DEN market for years -before UA got serious about growing and defending one of its core, historic markets
HUB means there are spokes - unless my geography is failing, where do people connect to from FLL - it’s at the tip of Florida. Going north is redundant, East is the Atlantic, south is the Caribbean (you have connections at EWR & IAD), and west is the Gulf of America. Not a lot of places to land.
BOS & JFK aren’t HUBs with strong spokes either. Both are more conducive to local traffic....
HUB means there are spokes - unless my geography is failing, where do people connect to from FLL - it’s at the tip of Florida. Going north is redundant, East is the Atlantic, south is the Caribbean (you have connections at EWR & IAD), and west is the Gulf of America. Not a lot of places to land.
BOS & JFK aren’t HUBs with strong spokes either. Both are more conducive to local traffic. You can’t make money on the domestic portion of a joint fare using a 3rd carrier receiving the largest payment for the OTW segment. unless UA can build up a network of their own flights to Europe or South America out of these 3 “QUESTIONABLE HUBS” there is no money in carrying them half-way to their destination.
UA can’t make money off of 1 online departure out of BOS, they’ve tried at least twice, the passengers just aren’t there.
Kirby want the trifecta NYC crown, it’ll look pretty in a display case, but it won’t do any good - unless you can wear it places. There are no workable options for hubs that do not have viable UA2UA connections.
You are giving geography way more consideration than it's due.
If the market for flights is there, the carrier will fly it, and if it take a bit of a backtrack, so be it. American's longstanding Miami hub still does more domestic traffic than international. As did Eastern's hub before it. As did Pan Am's hub there. As did National's hub there.
Bizarre question, but I wonder if you or a commenter might be able to elaborate on this... do you happen to know why United's planes still use the legacy "EXIT" signs instead of symbol exit signs (even on the 787 where symbol exit signs are the default)?
Some of JetBlue's planes use symbol exit signs, specifically, A220 and A321LR.
"... but rather that an analysis was an analysis happening internally."
This needs to be rewritten.
as I said from the beginning and repeated multiple times, just because UA wanted something and had analysts staying up nights working on powerpoints doesn't mean that there was any discussion about making an offer or, most importantly, that B6 was at all interesting.
but not of that was even confirmed.
Repeating rumors that involve mergers or even asset transactions of publicly traded companies is not something that people who want to stay out of...
as I said from the beginning and repeated multiple times, just because UA wanted something and had analysts staying up nights working on powerpoints doesn't mean that there was any discussion about making an offer or, most importantly, that B6 was at all interesting.
but not of that was even confirmed.
Repeating rumors that involve mergers or even asset transactions of publicly traded companies is not something that people who want to stay out of trouble should do.
The fact that UA, a publicly traded company that is run by people that operate their business in compliance with the law, had to issue a public denial, speaks very poorly to the future of the someone that was the source of the rumor as well as those that publicize and perpetuate those rumors.
It is legally indefensible to steal proprietary information and then personally benefit from it.
I expect UAL will do all it can to shut this practice down and AA, the biggest source of insider document leaks, would do well to do the same thing
If they try they’re gonna get block or asked to heavily divest slot at JFK. And Boston maybe too.
Not sure why UA would want a large FLL operation. JetBlue's operation is heavily focused on Caribbean and northern SAM routes.
UA had a hot mess of a hub in MIA years ago trying to upend AA and that went South (so to speak). Amazing service on the UA flights but AA still dominated.
UA retreated after a couple of years - not sure they would want to attempt this again. (This was...
Not sure why UA would want a large FLL operation. JetBlue's operation is heavily focused on Caribbean and northern SAM routes.
UA had a hot mess of a hub in MIA years ago trying to upend AA and that went South (so to speak). Amazing service on the UA flights but AA still dominated.
UA retreated after a couple of years - not sure they would want to attempt this again. (This was during the years of Dom Perignon in F, along with caviar on long hauls).
Beautiful product, but could not compete with AA.
The reliability of the MIA operation led UA’s biggest customer with the connections to SA (Disney) to walk away. If you got the flights to operate the service was fantastic. In the end, if you can’t get the customers to their final destination - they’ll walk to the AA counter.
the reality is that there are really now 2 major legacy carriers in S. Florida-AA and DL/LA.
DL is the largest domestic carrier AFTER AA and LA is the largest international carrier after AA.
DL/LA have more seats in many markets including most S. American markets that LA serves than AA.
DL is also the largest legacy carrier at FLL, just as it is at MCO and TPA. UA Is going to find...
the reality is that there are really now 2 major legacy carriers in S. Florida-AA and DL/LA.
DL is the largest domestic carrier AFTER AA and LA is the largest international carrier after AA.
DL/LA have more seats in many markets including most S. American markets that LA serves than AA.
DL is also the largest legacy carrier at FLL, just as it is at MCO and TPA. UA Is going to find it very hard to just squeeze or even buy its way into the Florida market after being content to be #6 for years, even while touting 3X/week seasonal narrowbody service to places like Mongolia.
UA is going to find it very hard to
If it did domestic business class ticket prices will go way up. Delta don't even pretend to compete with aa, ual and jetblue. While these 3 will have business lay flat for $700, delta will sell there ticket at $1300. Right now the premium route between bos and sfo/lax consists of only jetblue and ual. Ual is the lucky player who that would suck. In fact you see an interesting pricing phenomenon between ric-jfk where...
If it did domestic business class ticket prices will go way up. Delta don't even pretend to compete with aa, ual and jetblue. While these 3 will have business lay flat for $700, delta will sell there ticket at $1300. Right now the premium route between bos and sfo/lax consists of only jetblue and ual. Ual is the lucky player who that would suck. In fact you see an interesting pricing phenomenon between ric-jfk where jetblue doesn't fly and ric-bos where jetblue forces competitive pricing. Ric-bos is further than ric-jfk and much cheaper. That's why I want to see jetblue flourish.
Always thought JetBlue would be an interesting meal for Southwest if they ever wanted to expand in New York, Boston, and South Florida.
If AA wanted to make JFK and Boston stronger this would be the way to go, their JFK terminal situation would be interesting with with the huge JB terminal plus the addition being built and AA's own Terminal 8.
Perhaps a dumb question but would joining an alliance require DOJ approval? Like perhaps the rumor is incorrect but discussions about B6 joining Star Alliance are ongoing?
I would rather see an AS JBU partnership with maybe a merger down the road. Anything that gives the big 3 competition is good
*VX*+B6 would have been a great merger back in "the day." Compatible equipment, VX strong on the West Coast and B6 on the East. But AS outbid B6 and overpaid in the process. The acquisition of HA further commits AS to being a West Coast/Pacific carrier. Their East Coast operations are slim at best, but can be augmented (for some pax) via flying AA.
Other than rectifying that STUPID mistake of pulling out of JFK,...
*VX*+B6 would have been a great merger back in "the day." Compatible equipment, VX strong on the West Coast and B6 on the East. But AS outbid B6 and overpaid in the process. The acquisition of HA further commits AS to being a West Coast/Pacific carrier. Their East Coast operations are slim at best, but can be augmented (for some pax) via flying AA.
Other than rectifying that STUPID mistake of pulling out of JFK, UA doesn't need B6, but I can see how it might be an attractive takeover target for them.
I’d prefer UA to AA too. Adds competition at Boston, JFK, and creates a presence in Florida for them, rather than AA just gobbling up a competitor
UAL filed the following statement with the SEC today
It has come to the Company’s attention that there may be rumors spreading among certain of our investors regarding United’s involvement in a potential strategic transaction with another airline. The Company is not in negotiations or discussions with any other airline regarding a merger, acquisition or similar strategic transaction and has not been in any recent discussions with any airlines regarding the same. As indicated by...
UAL filed the following statement with the SEC today
It has come to the Company’s attention that there may be rumors spreading among certain of our investors regarding United’s involvement in a potential strategic transaction with another airline. The Company is not in negotiations or discussions with any other airline regarding a merger, acquisition or similar strategic transaction and has not been in any recent discussions with any airlines regarding the same. As indicated by United’s strong earnings results and outlook provided on January 21, 2025, the Company has great momentum and a bright future ahead.
and yet you people still fall for the drivel that comes off of his computer
Filing an 8K with the SEC responding to an "Internet Rumor" rarely happens. Particularly at this speed. You can expect that the C level is pissed off they had to deal with this today. You can best believe there will be an internal investigation to determine did this "rumor" come from within.
Not to mention said blogger should be more careful at disclosing non public information, whether true or false. This could be get arrested kind of behavior.
JetBlue & Alaska partnership could come to fruition. Instead of AS waiting to grow bigger they can complete the merger with HA and craft a Code Share Agreement and a Strong Partnership with B6 and let them handle the east coast that way Alaska can continue to focus on growing and completing their merger and consolidating their grip on SEA with out being distracted. DL would relish an opportunity to grow in SEA if AS...
JetBlue & Alaska partnership could come to fruition. Instead of AS waiting to grow bigger they can complete the merger with HA and craft a Code Share Agreement and a Strong Partnership with B6 and let them handle the east coast that way Alaska can continue to focus on growing and completing their merger and consolidating their grip on SEA with out being distracted. DL would relish an opportunity to grow in SEA if AS becomes distracted and this way they wouldn’t.
A revised agreement with AA and partnership could also happen. This time JetBlue would come back to the table with lessons learned and a better focus. With B6 adding First Class seats across their fleet beginning in 2026 that helps them in many ways with a partnership and their current partners. It could also lead them to join an alliance such as OneWorld since I am sure having a premium product across the fleet is a requirement to join.
With UA a it could look a bit different than an acquisition outright. I don’t believe any administration would approve that. But what could happen is that UA and B6 come together to create FLL as a Caribbean and South American hub to compete with AA. UA could sense an opportunity to hit American where it hurts the most. UA would provide the Long Haul flying and JetBlue would take on the short to medium haul. Azul partners with B6 and UA and has a presence in FLL so a combination of things could see something happen. This might come with JetBlue selling some slots at JFK to help UA get back into JFK. maybe not to turn it into a fortress hub but more of a focus. That they can have a combination of flying to and from their hubs like ORD, SFO, HOU, LAX but they will also fly to LHR, FRA, BRU, ZRH , and a few other markets . They way JetBlue partners with them but also competes in certain markets with UA but doesn’t step on their toes and B6 joins Star alliance and gets access to that Feed.
Neither JBLU's stock nor bonds are acting like an acquisition is being discussed.
United stock dipped 4% today, signaling investor unease with the company's M&A rumours. The stock saw a stellar 160% surge in value over the past six months (nearly 3x Delta's performance) indicating the company was undervalued. Today's tantrum shows M&A was not part of this expectation. Or if it did, any good deal is out of the window now that the cat is out of the bag. This explains the rushed SEC denial.
If you want healthy competitive consolidation, bankrupt JetBlue and let everyone peck at the carrion: auction the planes, the slots, let the employees be poached. Everyone gets what they really want to and can get. Allocate into lots if you want to be sure no one gets a dominant edge.
I think this is a case where the parts have more value than the whole.
This deal would:
1. Give an easy out to JetBlue managers working 80 hour weeks attempting the difficult task of turning around an airline. An airline is a brutal business to run and turning one around without the Chapter 11 process doesn't have a good track record
2. Give UA access to the NYC premier airport, JFK, and the market that prefers JFK over EWR
3. Gives UA more presence in the...
This deal would:
1. Give an easy out to JetBlue managers working 80 hour weeks attempting the difficult task of turning around an airline. An airline is a brutal business to run and turning one around without the Chapter 11 process doesn't have a good track record
2. Give UA access to the NYC premier airport, JFK, and the market that prefers JFK over EWR
3. Gives UA more presence in the state of Florida.
Is this "rumor" got any truth? Who knows? Will it pass antitrust muster? Who knows? But JetBlue has a pretty decent argument it can't survive as a standalone airline.
you mean that you and the internet have decided that JBLU doesn't have a chance.
Southwest managed to negotiate a couple year timeline to make their changes; it isn't unreasonable to give JetBlue a similar timeline.
and
UA's "needs" don't dictate the future for any other entity
I heard SWA was in play
They are, with Delta. New hub in AUS. Only a matter of time.
No way UA is allowed to have such a strong place at JFK and EWR. Nor should they be. Maybe spin off the JFK slots to AA with a corresponding amount of planes and allow UA to have FLL.
DL was handed a windfall at LGA and JFK and you argue that UA would be too big? GMAFB!
"DL was handed a windfall at LGA and JFK and you argue that UA would be too big?"
How was Delta "handed" anything at either? Pam Am didn't have remotely near the departures that Delta has today at Kennedy, and by their own admission, that took more than a decade of losses and two of growth, to get.
That, and United would have nearly 400 more departures in metropolitan NYC than Delta does at JFK...
"DL was handed a windfall at LGA and JFK and you argue that UA would be too big?"
How was Delta "handed" anything at either? Pam Am didn't have remotely near the departures that Delta has today at Kennedy, and by their own admission, that took more than a decade of losses and two of growth, to get.
That, and United would have nearly 400 more departures in metropolitan NYC than Delta does at JFK and Laguardia combined, if it were to acquire JetBlue's operation as a whole. There's no chance in hell that that's getting approved, even by this administration.
Feel like it would make United too powerful in NYC with their presence at EWR and sizeable presence at JFK thru B6. Obviously if AA acquired B6 their S FL network probably becomes under scrutiny.
Maybe Breeze will take over Jetblue ia an all-stock transaction, and the newly combined entity will then take over American in the same way. David Neelman will become the chairman and CEO of the combined entity. Then the newly combined entity will partner with IAG to take over TAP and Azul/Gol/Avianca financed in part by Bill Franke's Indigo Partners, that will then combine all the South American entities with JetSmart. To raise additional cash, the...
Maybe Breeze will take over Jetblue ia an all-stock transaction, and the newly combined entity will then take over American in the same way. David Neelman will become the chairman and CEO of the combined entity. Then the newly combined entity will partner with IAG to take over TAP and Azul/Gol/Avianca financed in part by Bill Franke's Indigo Partners, that will then combine all the South American entities with JetSmart. To raise additional cash, the deal would include the sale of slots at JFK to United and others (possibly coupled with slot swaps at Newark and with Delta at JFK to optimize take off and landing times). The transaction would also include the sale of virtually all of the JetBlue's operation at Fort Lauerdale to the highest bidder. Since virtually everything about this whole story is speculation, why not go all out!! LOL!!!
Pump it harder dude.
A few thoughts on this:
1) Both United and Delta each gave $1,000,000 to the Frump Inauguration (Pay to play?) so conceivably if the new administration is very keen on mergers & acquisitions - United is in the drivers seat.
2) UA wants a foothold at JFK - even though they already have EWR (which is very congested).
3) Operating similar to Alaska/Hawaiian - keep two separate brands but use assets more wisely.
4)...
A few thoughts on this:
1) Both United and Delta each gave $1,000,000 to the Frump Inauguration (Pay to play?) so conceivably if the new administration is very keen on mergers & acquisitions - United is in the drivers seat.
2) UA wants a foothold at JFK - even though they already have EWR (which is very congested).
3) Operating similar to Alaska/Hawaiian - keep two separate brands but use assets more wisely.
4) Star Alliance partner LH already has a minority interest in JetBlue. So bringing JetBlue into the StarAlliance is a possibility.
5) Love the Jet Blue Mint Class - could be used for UA's lackluster PS service routes. More in line to legacy UA PS service with three distinct classes of service.
JFK has the exact same congestion issues as EWR.
The issue is that JFK will always be the premier NYC airport for international service.
That's why all of their JV partners still choose to run JFK service because of how strong the hold it has on that population.
hey ric,
just one question.
you seem to realize that DL also gave to Trump's big party.
Don't you think that there aren't a few conflicts of what DL and UA each want to achieve esp. in NYC and that DL would expect its $1 million to buy it something just as much as you seem to think that UA is going to get a massive return on its "investment?"
how do you propose that DL should receive a return for its "investment?"
inquiring minds want to know.
When you use the plural in "minds", who, beyond yourself, do you consider interested in adding Delta to a United/JetBlue comment thread ? :)
Sorry Tim but Delta wants SWA. They also want a hub in Austin.
EWR is considered New York by the DOJ, no? How is that not an overlapping market? United has bases at almost all JetBlue bases I believe so I don’t see a huge advantage here other than just JFK but why wouldn’t they just try and buy more gates from JetBlue? Is FLL high yielding? It doesn’t seem like it
Nobody from Brooklyn, Queens or Long Island uses Newark. Look up the population numbers of these places. Brooklyn alone is larger than most American cities
That is not what I’m saying. Re-read it
I'm in Brooklyn. I have used Newark many, many times. Yes it can take a bit longer than JFK. But honestly, not so much longer that I would avoid Newark altogether.
20 years ago EWR and NYC stopped being “Co-Terminals within the airline. You could even exchange the fares before that. When they ceased to be co-terminals - tickets had to be exchanged.
Now, they are only controlled by the space airspace and are managed by The Port Authority.
I worked the telephone way back in the day and I never heard a person from LI, Queens, or Brooklyn say, “Damn the cost, I...
20 years ago EWR and NYC stopped being “Co-Terminals within the airline. You could even exchange the fares before that. When they ceased to be co-terminals - tickets had to be exchanged.
Now, they are only controlled by the space airspace and are managed by The Port Authority.
I worked the telephone way back in the day and I never heard a person from LI, Queens, or Brooklyn say, “Damn the cost, I want a full fare FC seat.” People’s Express initial success was build on this factor. You can’t make money offering ALL your seats to the cheapest buyer. Meaning, you need the BIG money (travel budgets) of people going to Manhattan. When those contracts die up, JFK isn’t a money maker.
United donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural committee
It's not a rumor that United wants to buy B6. It's just a bet on whether the current DOJ thinks it's a good idea.
it's also far from clear that B6 is interested in a deal.
The chances are pretty high that they will take the path of a deal that gives B6 the greatest autonomy and the least resistance in the governmental process.
It is a given that AA has a better chance of doing a nonJV/profit sharing deal similar to AA/AS than that UA will buy any assets or even be able to rush ahead of AA in partnering with B6 = which we can be clear is undoubtedly one of UA's objectives.
thanks for waiting a full 3 minutes to push "reply"...
I agree AA has a better shot but...
"it's also far from clear that B6 is interested in a deal."
Tim, sometimes you show how long you've been out of any relevant part of the industry and how few people you know anymore.
B6 is very interested in a deal. It's all their employees are doing at the moment as its their only true exit path.
no, B6 has never said they are interested in selling assets or the company.
They have said they are interested in partnerships.
Trying to read that UA has or does not have a better shot into that statement has nothing to do with being inside of the industry but has everything to do with removing your own bias long enough to let B6' own words say what they say, not what you want.
and I...
no, B6 has never said they are interested in selling assets or the company.
They have said they are interested in partnerships.
Trying to read that UA has or does not have a better shot into that statement has nothing to do with being inside of the industry but has everything to do with removing your own bias long enough to let B6' own words say what they say, not what you want.
and I don't put a timer on when I participate on OMAAT nor am I fixated w/ timestamps as you clearly are.
enjoy your diminished knowledge. Go back to your basement. It's not a surprise, but you clearly know no one in the industry that doesn't think you're an idiot. The news is all over b6 HQ but everyone that knows you thinks you're an idiot so it's little surprise you know no one of influence.
TGIF, Timmy. Keep arguing with yourself over something you know little about
as usual, Julie, you resort to insults and name-calling because you can't accept the basic facts.
It doesn't matter what the DOJ thinks if B6 doesn't want to make a deal.
As much as you and anyone else want to believe otherwise, there is ZERO evidence that B6 is interested in any kind of deal w/ anyone that involves selling assets or the company OR that B6 would prefer a partnership with anyone and esp....
as usual, Julie, you resort to insults and name-calling because you can't accept the basic facts.
It doesn't matter what the DOJ thinks if B6 doesn't want to make a deal.
As much as you and anyone else want to believe otherwise, there is ZERO evidence that B6 is interested in any kind of deal w/ anyone that involves selling assets or the company OR that B6 would prefer a partnership with anyone and esp. AA which would be a whole lot easier to get governmental approval for given UA and DL's larger size in NYC as a whole.
Tim, what Julie is saying is that beyond what is publically stated there are B6-internal rumors that say that B6 is very interested in a deal (probably they don't care with whom as long as it's worth a lot of money for whoever touches it).
What Julie is saying is that she/they have access to insider information that you don't. Yes the insult and personal attack is probably not warranted, but let's not pretend...
Tim, what Julie is saying is that beyond what is publically stated there are B6-internal rumors that say that B6 is very interested in a deal (probably they don't care with whom as long as it's worth a lot of money for whoever touches it).
What Julie is saying is that she/they have access to insider information that you don't. Yes the insult and personal attack is probably not warranted, but let's not pretend either that this discussion thread can only be based on GAAP-vetted statements and SEC filings, because it would have 0 value and would not be very fun. We can all read reuters.
Don't be jealous they have information you don't and enjoy the ride. Playing the rumour mill is just as fun as the tea-leaf divination you play with the financial reports.
Let's not oppose, let's complement and let's all get United in an all-American Delta-shaped red, white and Jet Blue circle, reaching for a new Frontier in the Southwest. Feel the Breeze of fresh air ? Yep, that's everyone's Spirit getting lighter !
:)
Oh timmy. You must hate that you know no one of influence. INstead, you continue to peddle in the Delta Surreal, while the rest of us deal in what we know is reality today.
Good luck to you. You can just admit you don't know TF what's going on and STFU and move on. But... then you'd have nothing to post about.
Move along, loser. Play time and nonsense is over...
:)
Oh timmy. You must hate that you know no one of influence. INstead, you continue to peddle in the Delta Surreal, while the rest of us deal in what we know is reality today.
Good luck to you. You can just admit you don't know TF what's going on and STFU and move on. But... then you'd have nothing to post about.
Move along, loser. Play time and nonsense is over at TPG where you can be quoted and not checked. Here you can and you sound ignorant and enormously stupid.
It seems highly unlikely that DOJ would allow the world's largest airline to entirely acquire B6... I understand UA's interest in growing Florida, and maybe there's an avenue for them to acquire assets at FLL and help B6 shrink to profitability.
FWIW I don't love the idea of UA buying them anyways (for UA's sake). Their last merger took years and years to be fully digested, and we're only now seeing the benefits of the...
It seems highly unlikely that DOJ would allow the world's largest airline to entirely acquire B6... I understand UA's interest in growing Florida, and maybe there's an avenue for them to acquire assets at FLL and help B6 shrink to profitability.
FWIW I don't love the idea of UA buying them anyways (for UA's sake). Their last merger took years and years to be fully digested, and we're only now seeing the benefits of the United/Continental deal. Acquiring B6 would be an expensive distraction at a time when UA has tons of momentum.
Where B6 went wrong was they sacrificed their core markets (BOS/NYC) in a futile attempt to expand elsewhere. They sought to diversify away from their hubs under threat, contrasting with AS who double and tripled down on SEA when Delta came in. In hindsight, this left B6 highly exposed and unable to defend their core markets. Retrenching to the northeast with a healthy dose of Florida and Caribbean flying would put them on much stronger financial footing. I agree with other commenters that a revised AA partnership could bolster their NYC loyalty proposition, and like others have said, B6 is not up against the wall like NK. I simply don't see a UA/B6 deal coming to fruition.
I rarely agree with Tim, however he is correct. Any of the big 3 trying to acquire JetBlue would NEVER pass justice department antitrust. The combination of any of these airlines with JetBlue would make them to dominate in the northeast. It makes no difference what administration is in charge it would NEVER HAPPEN.
Not to mention that jonNYC’s contact is risking prison by talking to him about this. Probably violating NDR’s and providing insider...
I rarely agree with Tim, however he is correct. Any of the big 3 trying to acquire JetBlue would NEVER pass justice department antitrust. The combination of any of these airlines with JetBlue would make them to dominate in the northeast. It makes no difference what administration is in charge it would NEVER HAPPEN.
Not to mention that jonNYC’s contact is risking prison by talking to him about this. Probably violating NDR’s and providing insider trading info. So does anyone really think his info is accurate?
Prison?
Tell me you have no idea how NDAs work without saying you have no idea how NDAs work,
Rational, usual, justice department - true.
But ten days ago control of the US government passed to someone willing to do anything in exchange for money, or flattery - remember how the Chinese governent bought him off last time by registering trademarks for his daughter's business?
Looked at from outside, it is astonishing how naive most American businesses are about what their new government means.
I recall the JetBlue management was saying they were interested in having a domestic airline partner a couple days ago. I could see them doing something like the American/JetBlue Northeast alliance but with United. You could have UA codeshare onto B6 from JFK/FLL, maybe even BOS too, giving JetBlue more revenue and united the New York/Florida hubs that it wants in a way.
I’d love them in star alliance
EWR fares will double
let's also not forget that EWR is not slot-restricted which means that DL could add flights to EWR - which it would certainly do including to LAX - if UA returns to JFK on its own metal.
UA could also make a play for BOS if they acquired B6. With B6's network it could be another European gateway for them.
Also they could finally keep lie-flats on SFO-BOS and LAX-BOS year round!
It would give UA a presence at JFK (although most of what JetBlue has still domestic) and a presence in FLL. But FLL is ULCC central and not really a good location for connections unless UA wants to go to war with AA over Central and South America and the Caribbean.
Ideally United would have to make concessions for some slots at JFK to AA, and create an environment at NYC where you have 3 strong airlines competing for market share vs 2 behemoths and 2 that are pretty far back in AA and B6.
The South Florida hub for UA at FLL is interesting but likely a bad idea b/c of garbage fares and performance. MIA is the only airport in FL with premium demand...
Ideally United would have to make concessions for some slots at JFK to AA, and create an environment at NYC where you have 3 strong airlines competing for market share vs 2 behemoths and 2 that are pretty far back in AA and B6.
The South Florida hub for UA at FLL is interesting but likely a bad idea b/c of garbage fares and performance. MIA is the only airport in FL with premium demand and volume and is an AA fortress hub.
I'm not sure what United would do with BOS - they'd get a very strong foothold there, but they already have hubs in NYC and DC so they'd have the same AA problem of too many hubs in close concentration in the East Coast cannibalizing each other.
I think it gets UA more capacity and likely cements them as the biggest in NYC by giving them access to JFK which is why it's interesting, but there will absolutely be concessions that will be made so not sure if this is valid / how this turns out.
Can you post more reviews, please.
First of all, let’s be clear that Jon could be right about UA’s interest but that hardly means that B6 is interested in a deal.
UA has been trash talking the LCC and ULCC sectors of the industry for years telling everyone that those sectors’ business plans don’t work even as it tries to lump itself into the category of successful airlines, specifically DL – although AS fits just as well in UA’s category...
First of all, let’s be clear that Jon could be right about UA’s interest but that hardly means that B6 is interested in a deal.
UA has been trash talking the LCC and ULCC sectors of the industry for years telling everyone that those sectors’ business plans don’t work even as it tries to lump itself into the category of successful airlines, specifically DL – although AS fits just as well in UA’s category financially.
UA sees the industry through its own network deficiencies – what do others have that UA doesn’t. It is hard to understand how UA ever had leadership that thought that not serving JFK made sense. It also is hard to believe that UA gets as excited about announcing 3 weekly summer seasonal service to places like Mongolia while not addressing that it is the 6th largest carrier in Florida, a market far larger than most of the countries that UA serves.
And EWR IS part of the DOJ’s analysis of NYC – it doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks.
There is ZERO chance that UA will be allowed to acquire B6 in total and there is no reason to think that B6 would sell any assets to UA so that UA could start transcon service on the same markets that are B6’ top revenue markets.
B6 isn’t in bankruptcy; it controls its destiny and it is making progress even if slowly.
There is a far greater likelihood that AA and B6 will reconstruct a partnership that is legal – not unlike AA/AS which the DOJ and the federal courts have said the two could do.
UA can certainly try to not miss an opportunity but the chances are better than not that UA will still have what it has in NYC – which is a fractionally higher number of passengers handled than DL but 15% fewer flights and none from JFK.
Scared for your buddies and secret bosses, Timbits? You should be. UA back in the rat-infested and sewage-laden JFK is a threat to your beloved Widget. UA expanding Florida service (which has always been sufficient for me) is also a threat to your beloved Widget, aka The Official Airline Of Disney World. They're coming after your boys, and they won't be satisfied until they're engorged with blood. Be afraid, Timbits. Be very afraid.
cool
no more scared that UA fans are that DL could grow much faster internationally than UA.
and you do realize that DL has eliminated the size advantage that UA used to have in NYC? DL is now carrying almost identical amounts of traffic at NYC's 3 airports compared to what UA has at EWR and LGA.
And according to Port Authority data, DL is growing while AA, B6 and UA are ALL shrinking in NYC.
"UA back in the rat-infested and sewage-laden JFK is a threat to your beloved Widget:
@ORD Have you been to EWR, like EVER? You should get out more. A united lover trying to give Newark any sort of distinction over JFK...? travel times aside, you'd have to actually hate your self-esteem to go to Newark over JFK and suffer that joke that United calls an airport with every part of it subpar vs JFK.
We...
"UA back in the rat-infested and sewage-laden JFK is a threat to your beloved Widget:
@ORD Have you been to EWR, like EVER? You should get out more. A united lover trying to give Newark any sort of distinction over JFK...? travel times aside, you'd have to actually hate your self-esteem to go to Newark over JFK and suffer that joke that United calls an airport with every part of it subpar vs JFK.
We often agree on some things... but trashing JFK? You're clearly a UA employee that has never been to JFK and only non-revs at EWR.
Julie, I'm on your side against Timbits. Don't backstab your allies. Of course I'm been to EWR, and as a United supporter, I have more reasons than most to hate it.
But I hate New York City, its inhabitants, and its infrastructure even more. It is a cesspit filled with cro-magnons (roomed with a couple while in the Army and it was like living with feral hogs), and Idlewild (I refuse to insult John Fitzgerald...
Julie, I'm on your side against Timbits. Don't backstab your allies. Of course I'm been to EWR, and as a United supporter, I have more reasons than most to hate it.
But I hate New York City, its inhabitants, and its infrastructure even more. It is a cesspit filled with cro-magnons (roomed with a couple while in the Army and it was like living with feral hogs), and Idlewild (I refuse to insult John Fitzgerald Kennedy) is a rat-infested hole that acts as the main base for the second-most-evil second-rate excuse for an airline in existence (nothing is more evil than Delta). If someone blew it up tomorrow, nothing of value would be lost.
Seems fine to me except that JFK and EWR are not totally separate markets. I have flown to JFK then returned from EWR. EWR and PHL are separate markets.
Take JFK out of JetBlue and there is not that much left. True, FLL and BOS but those are not that significant.
If United buys a portion of JetBlue, such as gates and equipment to serve FLL and some slots at JFK, that would be...
Seems fine to me except that JFK and EWR are not totally separate markets. I have flown to JFK then returned from EWR. EWR and PHL are separate markets.
Take JFK out of JetBlue and there is not that much left. True, FLL and BOS but those are not that significant.
If United buys a portion of JetBlue, such as gates and equipment to serve FLL and some slots at JFK, that would be ok to me.
What does UA want from JFK? How about gates and slots to serve SFO, LAX, DEN, IAH, LHR?
From a pure competitive standpoint looking at the Northeast - I like this a bit more than AA/JetBlue, because it more or less represents a new entrant into JFK/LGA/BOS instead of two competitors (AA/JetBlue) merging. Not sure if regulators would look at EWR/JFK/LGA as one market - if they do, maybe UA/B6 would have to sell some EWR and JFK slots elsewhere, which could create opportunities for AA and low cost carriers. It would also...
From a pure competitive standpoint looking at the Northeast - I like this a bit more than AA/JetBlue, because it more or less represents a new entrant into JFK/LGA/BOS instead of two competitors (AA/JetBlue) merging. Not sure if regulators would look at EWR/JFK/LGA as one market - if they do, maybe UA/B6 would have to sell some EWR and JFK slots elsewhere, which could create opportunities for AA and low cost carriers. It would also improve UA's reach into Florida as you pointed out.
The concern I (and likely regulators and Northeast politicians) would have is that I would guess some of B6's service to airports like HPN and ISP would be negatively impacted.
Overall I would prefer JetBlue just improve operations on a standalone basis, but this could make some sense
@andrew, pls help me understand, why would the acquisition affect hpn? As far as I can tell, it operates as a distinct market, often with higher fares than Lga/jfk/ewr. And it has a wealthy enough client base, that it could support more F seats.
JetBlue provides a lot of service (mainly to Florida, but also now to JFK) to smaller northeastern airports. Does United have the same priority? Probably not. Yields are high, but the risk is United moves the planes elsewhere.
A little odd but what if United proposed B6 joining Star Alliance, in a similar fashion to AS joining OneWorld? It's a lighter lift from a regulatory perspective but would likely benefit all parties involved. Very hypothetical but wouldn't surprise me.
@ Portlanjuanero -- We can't rule anything out, but I can't imagine United would be happy with that, especially since the goal is to access an airport that the airline can't currently serve. I think there would be limited upside to United for that. It's a bit different than American, where the airline is grasping at straws, and trying to do anything to be competitive, but is failing. Anyway, we'll see!
Let's not forget that Lufthansa was a major shareholder/founding partner of B6. I bet the Star Alliance partner UA is talking to is LH.
I can see this more about getting B6 into STAR than entangling them to one particular carrier. Finally having all Stars under one roof at JFK is customer and operationally friendly. LAWA is going to play musical gates again and slimed down B6 @ LAX would fit nicely with UA.
If UA-B6 gets antitrust clearance, it'll be a clear sign that all bets are off when it comes to consolidation... back to the Reagan-era "get big or get out"
@ Jim -- And that seems to be the general vibe, no?
The Justice Department just sued to prevent a pretty big merger (HP / Juniper) and you would still have state attorneys generals out there that may want to prevent mergers - especially of airlines. So it is unpredictable. Some would be against American, United, Delta or Southwest buying anything.
Frontier/Spirit has very little antitrust or even competitive impact issues (both are low cost, Frontier actually cheaper) so a bit different
Also even if it gets approval, I have to imagine that comes with the string of some giveaway of the NY presence. I can't imagine UA just gets to absorb the B6 JFK hub at its current size and keep its size at EWR.
Waiting patiently for Tim Dunn getting upset that’s he’s not the center of attention yet.
You didn’t have to wait long….