Let me start by emphasizing that this is just a rumor, so I can’t personally vouch for this. However, it makes for an interesting discussion, if you ask me…
In this post:
United reportedly interested in JetBlue
@xJonNYC is known for breaking a lot of news in the airline industry, and in recent days, he has shared a very interesting rumor. Specifically, he writes about how United is reportedly interested in JetBlue, either in the form of a merger, or buying assets, or something.
He’s not sure what exactly this would look like, but he’s confident that this is being analyzed internally, and even that some of United’s Star Alliance partners have been briefed about this topic, given how it could impact partnerships.
I have sources telling me UA is heavily looking at B6 — merger or buying assets or something else I’m not remotely sure at the moment.
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 29, 2025 at 2:38 PM
so, as the hours tick by one looks for evidence to two things: 1. is the rumor credible (as in not just idle gossip or people just passing along low-level chatter,) and 2. what is the likelihood that something will happen along the lines of the rumor. On point 2…
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
…I have no additional inkling or indication in any way as to if anything like this is considered likely to happen. On point 1, however, I now have a great deal of confidence that this rumor is completely solid.
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
obviously the world's focus will be very much elsewhere for a while, just noting that it's my belief there may actually be a bit more oozing out about this (UA's interest in B6.) And kindly note at no time do I indicate that B6 is expressing this interest– this is all from UA's..
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 12:26 PM
.. perspective (at least that's the extent of my knowledge on the subject anyway)
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 12:27 PM
And, at this juncture, I feel there is ample evidence that some of UA's Star Alliance partners have been briefed about UA's interest in Jetblue
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) January 30, 2025 at 6:32 PM
So again, the emphasis is on this being a rumor, and it’s anyone’s guess to what extent this materializes, if at all. After all, it could be that these discussions are happening internally, but don’t go beyond that. That being said, it’s always fun to discuss topics like this…
JetBlue would be a great fit for United
JetBlue is an airline that’s generally loved by passengers. There’s only one major issue — the airline struggles to make money (minor detail, I know!). Unlike some low cost carriers, JetBlue isn’t hemorrhaging money. However, the airline struggles to even consistently break even, despite having a strong market position in some major airports.
Several months ago, I wrote about how JetBlue could be an attractive acquisition target for several airlines. Specific to the United rumor, I can totally see how United would find value in acquiring JetBlue:
- We know that United has desperately been wanting to return to New York (JFK), but can’t get available gate space; JetBlue has a huge presence there
- We know that United has been looking closely at opening a hub in Florida, and JetBlue has a hub in Fort Lauderdale (FLL)
- JetBlue and United have largely complementary fleets, as JetBlue primarily has Airbus A320-family aircraft, which United also has; I’m sure United also wouldn’t mind adding Airbus A220s to its fleet, as they’re lovely planes
United as an airline is very much trending upwards. Not only is United now the world’s largest airline, but it’s increasingly in Delta’s league when it comes to profitability. There’s no denying that a JetBlue acquisition would not only help United become even more dominant in terms of size, but also give it access to the two markets it’s most hoping to expand to (JFK and Florida).
Now, I think it goes without saying that American would probably also be mighty interested in acquiring JetBlue, given that the two airlines had a Northeast Alliance, which was ultimately blocked by regulators under the Biden administration. JetBlue could greatly help American in both New York (JFK) and Boston (BOS).
However, given the respective financial performance of United and American, I suspect the former would be in more of a position to win in any bidding war.
Would this deal get regulatory approval, though?
Of course a logical question would be whether an airline like United acquiring JetBlue would get regulatory approval. Under the Biden administration, we saw JetBlue try to acquire Spirit, only for the Department of Justice to block that, arguing it was important to maintain ultra low cost carrier competition.
I thought that was the wrong decision — in the meantime, Spirit has upended its business model, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, and it’s anyone’s guess what the carrier’s future holds.
Of course I think it’s safe to say that the Trump administration will take a different approach to consolidation than the Biden administration did. Would this deal get approved? I mean, that goes beyond my area of expertise, though personally I wouldn’t be surprised if it were allowed…
That being said, call it a hot take, but I’m not sure more industry consolidation is a bad thing. And I’m not even sure United acquiring JetBlue would be bad. Why? Well, simply put, an airline can only afford to have tickets subsidized by shareholders for so long before something needs to change.
Specific to United acquiring JetBlue, let’s think about this for a second:
- This would be massively positive for JetBlue employees, who would be getting major pay increases, to align with United’s pay scales
- I’d argue that having a second major global airline with a hub in South Florida would be good news for consumers
- This would allow United to compete more aggressively against Delta in New York City (both at Kennedy and LaGuardia), and I’d say there’s consumer benefit there
- United is simply in a much better position to leverage JetBlue’s assets to turn a profit, especially given that airlines largely make money through their loyalty programs nowadays, and don’t actually earn that much flying passengers
- Fundamentally what’s important is that the airline industry maintains and grows capacity, and keeping airlines not making money alive doesn’t do a whole lot to forward that goal; I mean, just look at all the new aircraft deliveries that JetBlue has deferred
If United were to acquire JetBlue, I suspect it would be similar to Alaska acquiring Hawaiian, where the Hawaiian operation would go from money-losing to almost profitable overnight, due to simply better utilizing assets.
I think the reality that some people refuse to accept is that US airline tickets are essentially subsidized by credit card agreements. Even the most profitable airlines (Delta and United) have virtually non-existent margins if we’re going to compare passenger revenue per available seat mile to cost per available seat mile. Large airlines have the power to have much more lucrative loyalty programs, because there’s power in scale.
Bottom line
We’ll see if anything comes of this, but rumor has it that United is interested in JetBlue, in some form or another. I’m not surprised that United has this interest, given that the current management team wants to return to JFK Airport and open a hub in Florida, and both of those are areas where JetBlue could help a lot.
Now, if anything actually comes of this is a different story, but in the meantime, we’ll mark this as “developing,” and I figure it makes for an interesting aviation geek discussion.
What do you make of the prospect of United investing in JetBlue?
No way UA is allowed to have such a strong place at JFK and EWR. Nor should they be. Maybe spin off the JFK slots to AA with a corresponding amount of planes and allow UA to have FLL.
Feel like it would make United too powerful in NYC with their presence at EWR and sizeable presence at JFK thru B6. Obviously if AA acquired B6 their S FL network probably becomes under scrutiny.
Maybe Breeze will take over Jetblue ia an all-stock transaction, and the newly combined entity will then take over American in the same way. David Neelman will become the chairman and CEO of the combined entity. Then the newly combined entity will partner with IAG to take over TAP and Azul/Gol/Avianca financed in part by Bill Franke's Indigo Partners, that will then combine all the South American entities with JetSmart. To raise additional cash, the...
Maybe Breeze will take over Jetblue ia an all-stock transaction, and the newly combined entity will then take over American in the same way. David Neelman will become the chairman and CEO of the combined entity. Then the newly combined entity will partner with IAG to take over TAP and Azul/Gol/Avianca financed in part by Bill Franke's Indigo Partners, that will then combine all the South American entities with JetSmart. To raise additional cash, the deal would include the sale of slots at JFK to United and others (possibly coupled with slot swaps at Newark and with Delta at JFK to optimize take off and landing times). The transaction would also include the sale of virtually all of the JetBlue's operation at Fort Lauerdale to the highest bidder. Since virtually everything about this whole story is speculation, why not go all out!! LOL!!!
A few thoughts on this:
1) Both United and Delta each gave $1,000,000 to the Frump Inauguration (Pay to play?) so conceivably if the new administration is very keen on mergers & acquisitions - United is in the drivers seat.
2) UA wants a foothold at JFK - even though they already have EWR (which is very congested).
3) Operating similar to Alaska/Hawaiian - keep two separate brands but use assets more wisely.
4)...
A few thoughts on this:
1) Both United and Delta each gave $1,000,000 to the Frump Inauguration (Pay to play?) so conceivably if the new administration is very keen on mergers & acquisitions - United is in the drivers seat.
2) UA wants a foothold at JFK - even though they already have EWR (which is very congested).
3) Operating similar to Alaska/Hawaiian - keep two separate brands but use assets more wisely.
4) Star Alliance partner LH already has a minority interest in JetBlue. So bringing JetBlue into the StarAlliance is a possibility.
5) Love the Jet Blue Mint Class - could be used for UA's lackluster PS service routes. More in line to legacy UA PS service with three distinct classes of service.
JFK has the exact same congestion issues as EWR.
The issue is that JFK will always be the premier NYC airport for international service.
That's why all of their JV partners still choose to run JFK service because of how strong the hold it has on that population.
hey ric,
just one question.
you seem to realize that DL also gave to Trump's big party.
Don't you think that there aren't a few conflicts of what DL and UA each want to achieve esp. in NYC and that DL would expect its $1 million to buy it something just as much as you seem to think that UA is going to get a massive return on its "investment?"
how do you propose that DL should receive a return for its "investment?"
inquiring minds want to know.
EWR is considered New York by the DOJ, no? How is that not an overlapping market? United has bases at almost all JetBlue bases I believe so I don’t see a huge advantage here other than just JFK but why wouldn’t they just try and buy more gates from JetBlue? Is FLL high yielding? It doesn’t seem like it
Nobody from Brooklyn, Queens or Long Island uses Newark. Look up the population numbers of these places. Brooklyn alone is larger than most American cities
That is not what I’m saying. Re-read it
I'm in Brooklyn. I have used Newark many, many times. Yes it can take a bit longer than JFK. But honestly, not so much longer that I would avoid Newark altogether.
United donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural committee
It's not a rumor that United wants to buy B6. It's just a bet on whether the current DOJ thinks it's a good idea.
it's also far from clear that B6 is interested in a deal.
The chances are pretty high that they will take the path of a deal that gives B6 the greatest autonomy and the least resistance in the governmental process.
It is a given that AA has a better chance of doing a nonJV/profit sharing deal similar to AA/AS than that UA will buy any assets or even be able to rush ahead of AA in partnering with B6 = which we can be clear is undoubtedly one of UA's objectives.
thanks for waiting a full 3 minutes to push "reply"...
I agree AA has a better shot but...
"it's also far from clear that B6 is interested in a deal."
Tim, sometimes you show how long you've been out of any relevant part of the industry and how few people you know anymore.
B6 is very interested in a deal. It's all their employees are doing at the moment as its their only true exit path.
no, B6 has never said they are interested in selling assets or the company.
They have said they are interested in partnerships.
Trying to read that UA has or does not have a better shot into that statement has nothing to do with being inside of the industry but has everything to do with removing your own bias long enough to let B6' own words say what they say, not what you want.
and I...
no, B6 has never said they are interested in selling assets or the company.
They have said they are interested in partnerships.
Trying to read that UA has or does not have a better shot into that statement has nothing to do with being inside of the industry but has everything to do with removing your own bias long enough to let B6' own words say what they say, not what you want.
and I don't put a timer on when I participate on OMAAT nor am I fixated w/ timestamps as you clearly are.
enjoy your diminished knowledge. Go back to your basement. It's not a surprise, but you clearly know no one in the industry that doesn't think you're an idiot. The news is all over b6 HQ but everyone that knows you thinks you're an idiot so it's little surprise you know no one of influence.
TGIF, Timmy. Keep arguing with yourself over something you know little about
as usual, Julie, you resort to insults and name-calling because you can't accept the basic facts.
It doesn't matter what the DOJ thinks if B6 doesn't want to make a deal.
As much as you and anyone else want to believe otherwise, there is ZERO evidence that B6 is interested in any kind of deal w/ anyone that involves selling assets or the company OR that B6 would prefer a partnership with anyone and esp....
as usual, Julie, you resort to insults and name-calling because you can't accept the basic facts.
It doesn't matter what the DOJ thinks if B6 doesn't want to make a deal.
As much as you and anyone else want to believe otherwise, there is ZERO evidence that B6 is interested in any kind of deal w/ anyone that involves selling assets or the company OR that B6 would prefer a partnership with anyone and esp. AA which would be a whole lot easier to get governmental approval for given UA and DL's larger size in NYC as a whole.
It seems highly unlikely that DOJ would allow the world's largest airline to entirely acquire B6... I understand UA's interest in growing Florida, and maybe there's an avenue for them to acquire assets at FLL and help B6 shrink to profitability.
FWIW I don't love the idea of UA buying them anyways (for UA's sake). Their last merger took years and years to be fully digested, and we're only now seeing the benefits of the...
It seems highly unlikely that DOJ would allow the world's largest airline to entirely acquire B6... I understand UA's interest in growing Florida, and maybe there's an avenue for them to acquire assets at FLL and help B6 shrink to profitability.
FWIW I don't love the idea of UA buying them anyways (for UA's sake). Their last merger took years and years to be fully digested, and we're only now seeing the benefits of the United/Continental deal. Acquiring B6 would be an expensive distraction at a time when UA has tons of momentum.
Where B6 went wrong was they sacrificed their core markets (BOS/NYC) in a futile attempt to expand elsewhere. They sought to diversify away from their hubs under threat, contrasting with AS who double and tripled down on SEA when Delta came in. In hindsight, this left B6 highly exposed and unable to defend their core markets. Retrenching to the northeast with a healthy dose of Florida and Caribbean flying would put them on much stronger financial footing. I agree with other commenters that a revised AA partnership could bolster their NYC loyalty proposition, and like others have said, B6 is not up against the wall like NK. I simply don't see a UA/B6 deal coming to fruition.
I rarely agree with Tim, however he is correct. Any of the big 3 trying to acquire JetBlue would NEVER pass justice department antitrust. The combination of any of these airlines with JetBlue would make them to dominate in the northeast. It makes no difference what administration is in charge it would NEVER HAPPEN.
Not to mention that jonNYC’s contact is risking prison by talking to him about this. Probably violating NDR’s and providing insider...
I rarely agree with Tim, however he is correct. Any of the big 3 trying to acquire JetBlue would NEVER pass justice department antitrust. The combination of any of these airlines with JetBlue would make them to dominate in the northeast. It makes no difference what administration is in charge it would NEVER HAPPEN.
Not to mention that jonNYC’s contact is risking prison by talking to him about this. Probably violating NDR’s and providing insider trading info. So does anyone really think his info is accurate?
Prison?
Tell me you have no idea how NDAs work without saying you have no idea how NDAs work,
I recall the JetBlue management was saying they were interested in having a domestic airline partner a couple days ago. I could see them doing something like the American/JetBlue Northeast alliance but with United. You could have UA codeshare onto B6 from JFK/FLL, maybe even BOS too, giving JetBlue more revenue and united the New York/Florida hubs that it wants in a way.
I’d love them in star alliance
EWR fares will double
let's also not forget that EWR is not slot-restricted which means that DL could add flights to EWR - which it would certainly do including to LAX - if UA returns to JFK on its own metal.
UA could also make a play for BOS if they acquired B6. With B6's network it could be another European gateway for them.
Also they could finally keep lie-flats on SFO-BOS and LAX-BOS year round!
It would give UA a presence at JFK (although most of what JetBlue has still domestic) and a presence in FLL. But FLL is ULCC central and not really a good location for connections unless UA wants to go to war with AA over Central and South America and the Caribbean.
Ideally United would have to make concessions for some slots at JFK to AA, and create an environment at NYC where you have 3 strong airlines competing for market share vs 2 behemoths and 2 that are pretty far back in AA and B6.
The South Florida hub for UA at FLL is interesting but likely a bad idea b/c of garbage fares and performance. MIA is the only airport in FL with premium demand...
Ideally United would have to make concessions for some slots at JFK to AA, and create an environment at NYC where you have 3 strong airlines competing for market share vs 2 behemoths and 2 that are pretty far back in AA and B6.
The South Florida hub for UA at FLL is interesting but likely a bad idea b/c of garbage fares and performance. MIA is the only airport in FL with premium demand and volume and is an AA fortress hub.
I'm not sure what United would do with BOS - they'd get a very strong foothold there, but they already have hubs in NYC and DC so they'd have the same AA problem of too many hubs in close concentration in the East Coast cannibalizing each other.
I think it gets UA more capacity and likely cements them as the biggest in NYC by giving them access to JFK which is why it's interesting, but there will absolutely be concessions that will be made so not sure if this is valid / how this turns out.
Can you post more reviews, please.
First of all, let’s be clear that Jon could be right about UA’s interest but that hardly means that B6 is interested in a deal.
UA has been trash talking the LCC and ULCC sectors of the industry for years telling everyone that those sectors’ business plans don’t work even as it tries to lump itself into the category of successful airlines, specifically DL – although AS fits just as well in UA’s category...
First of all, let’s be clear that Jon could be right about UA’s interest but that hardly means that B6 is interested in a deal.
UA has been trash talking the LCC and ULCC sectors of the industry for years telling everyone that those sectors’ business plans don’t work even as it tries to lump itself into the category of successful airlines, specifically DL – although AS fits just as well in UA’s category financially.
UA sees the industry through its own network deficiencies – what do others have that UA doesn’t. It is hard to understand how UA ever had leadership that thought that not serving JFK made sense. It also is hard to believe that UA gets as excited about announcing 3 weekly summer seasonal service to places like Mongolia while not addressing that it is the 6th largest carrier in Florida, a market far larger than most of the countries that UA serves.
And EWR IS part of the DOJ’s analysis of NYC – it doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks.
There is ZERO chance that UA will be allowed to acquire B6 in total and there is no reason to think that B6 would sell any assets to UA so that UA could start transcon service on the same markets that are B6’ top revenue markets.
B6 isn’t in bankruptcy; it controls its destiny and it is making progress even if slowly.
There is a far greater likelihood that AA and B6 will reconstruct a partnership that is legal – not unlike AA/AS which the DOJ and the federal courts have said the two could do.
UA can certainly try to not miss an opportunity but the chances are better than not that UA will still have what it has in NYC – which is a fractionally higher number of passengers handled than DL but 15% fewer flights and none from JFK.
Scared for your buddies and secret bosses, Timbits? You should be. UA back in the rat-infested and sewage-laden JFK is a threat to your beloved Widget. UA expanding Florida service (which has always been sufficient for me) is also a threat to your beloved Widget, aka The Official Airline Of Disney World. They're coming after your boys, and they won't be satisfied until they're engorged with blood. Be afraid, Timbits. Be very afraid.
cool
no more scared that UA fans are that DL could grow much faster internationally than UA.
and you do realize that DL has eliminated the size advantage that UA used to have in NYC? DL is now carrying almost identical amounts of traffic at NYC's 3 airports compared to what UA has at EWR and LGA.
And according to Port Authority data, DL is growing while AA, B6 and UA are ALL shrinking in NYC.
"UA back in the rat-infested and sewage-laden JFK is a threat to your beloved Widget:
@ORD Have you been to EWR, like EVER? You should get out more. A united lover trying to give Newark any sort of distinction over JFK...? travel times aside, you'd have to actually hate your self-esteem to go to Newark over JFK and suffer that joke that United calls an airport with every part of it subpar vs JFK.
We...
"UA back in the rat-infested and sewage-laden JFK is a threat to your beloved Widget:
@ORD Have you been to EWR, like EVER? You should get out more. A united lover trying to give Newark any sort of distinction over JFK...? travel times aside, you'd have to actually hate your self-esteem to go to Newark over JFK and suffer that joke that United calls an airport with every part of it subpar vs JFK.
We often agree on some things... but trashing JFK? You're clearly a UA employee that has never been to JFK and only non-revs at EWR.
Seems fine to me except that JFK and EWR are not totally separate markets. I have flown to JFK then returned from EWR. EWR and PHL are separate markets.
Take JFK out of JetBlue and there is not that much left. True, FLL and BOS but those are not that significant.
If United buys a portion of JetBlue, such as gates and equipment to serve FLL and some slots at JFK, that would be...
Seems fine to me except that JFK and EWR are not totally separate markets. I have flown to JFK then returned from EWR. EWR and PHL are separate markets.
Take JFK out of JetBlue and there is not that much left. True, FLL and BOS but those are not that significant.
If United buys a portion of JetBlue, such as gates and equipment to serve FLL and some slots at JFK, that would be ok to me.
What does UA want from JFK? How about gates and slots to serve SFO, LAX, DEN, IAH, LHR?
From a pure competitive standpoint looking at the Northeast - I like this a bit more than AA/JetBlue, because it more or less represents a new entrant into JFK/LGA/BOS instead of two competitors (AA/JetBlue) merging. Not sure if regulators would look at EWR/JFK/LGA as one market - if they do, maybe UA/B6 would have to sell some EWR and JFK slots elsewhere, which could create opportunities for AA and low cost carriers. It would also...
From a pure competitive standpoint looking at the Northeast - I like this a bit more than AA/JetBlue, because it more or less represents a new entrant into JFK/LGA/BOS instead of two competitors (AA/JetBlue) merging. Not sure if regulators would look at EWR/JFK/LGA as one market - if they do, maybe UA/B6 would have to sell some EWR and JFK slots elsewhere, which could create opportunities for AA and low cost carriers. It would also improve UA's reach into Florida as you pointed out.
The concern I (and likely regulators and Northeast politicians) would have is that I would guess some of B6's service to airports like HPN and ISP would be negatively impacted.
Overall I would prefer JetBlue just improve operations on a standalone basis, but this could make some sense
A little odd but what if United proposed B6 joining Star Alliance, in a similar fashion to AS joining OneWorld? It's a lighter lift from a regulatory perspective but would likely benefit all parties involved. Very hypothetical but wouldn't surprise me.
@ Portlanjuanero -- We can't rule anything out, but I can't imagine United would be happy with that, especially since the goal is to access an airport that the airline can't currently serve. I think there would be limited upside to United for that. It's a bit different than American, where the airline is grasping at straws, and trying to do anything to be competitive, but is failing. Anyway, we'll see!
Let's not forget that Lufthansa was a major shareholder/founding partner of B6. I bet the Star Alliance partner UA is talking to is LH.
If UA-B6 gets antitrust clearance, it'll be a clear sign that all bets are off when it comes to consolidation... back to the Reagan-era "get big or get out"
@ Jim -- And that seems to be the general vibe, no?
The Justice Department just sued to prevent a pretty big merger (HP / Juniper) and you would still have state attorneys generals out there that may want to prevent mergers - especially of airlines. So it is unpredictable. Some would be against American, United, Delta or Southwest buying anything.
Frontier/Spirit has very little antitrust or even competitive impact issues (both are low cost, Frontier actually cheaper) so a bit different
Also even if it gets approval, I have to imagine that comes with the string of some giveaway of the NY presence. I can't imagine UA just gets to absorb the B6 JFK hub at its current size and keep its size at EWR.
Waiting patiently for Tim Dunn getting upset that’s he’s not the center of attention yet.
You didn’t have to wait long….