It sure has been quite the week for JetBlue and its potential partnerships. We’ve known that JetBlue has been looking for a domestic airline partner, and until recently, it seemed like either American or United could be the best fit.
On Monday, American revealed it was no longer in discussions with JetBlue about a possible partnership, leading many of us to believe that a United partnership (or something) was incoming. Well, that’s basically now confirmed, and we’re learning more details of what this could look like.
JetBlue & United intend to announce partnership soon
During JetBlue’s Q1 2025 earnings call on Tuesday, President Marty St. George was asked about domestic airline partnerships, and he suggested that JetBlue was very close to announcing such a deal, and it would include frequent flyer reciprocity. Specifically, he said the following:
“I need to make sure I reserve my comments based on what we have said publicly. And what we have said is we are looking at and we’re talking to multiple airlines about domestic partnerships. I think we’re getting very close to making announcement, expect to make the announcement this quarter. And as far as the benefits that we expect to offer to our customers, now the most important thing is number one, a significantly higher network opportunity for earn and burn of TrueBlue points, which we think greatly improves utility of TrueBlue.”
“Today, if you are a customer in the Northeast and you love JetBlue for leisure, but, you know, twice a year, you have to go to Omaha or Boise, these are places that you can’t earn through Blue points on now. And when this partnership goes forward, you will be able to. And the second thing is I’m really excited for just the overall broadening of the network opportunities, you know, not just connectivity, but also just sort of better opportunities for our customers to fly more places with more frequency.”
Later on Tuesday, Reuters reported that JetBlue and United are actively negotiating a partnership, according to several industry sources. Initially, the partnership is expected to be about providing greater connectivity to customers, and allowing them to earn and redeem frequent flyer points across the two carriers.
The initial scope of this partnership isn’t expected to be closer than that, so we won’t see coordinating of schedules or pricing, at least initially. Based on what we know about the partnership being proposed, at least the first phase of this shouldn’t face any sort of regulatory challenges. It’s also worth emphasizing that it’s not finalized yet, so things could still change.
The long term vision may involve JFK slots and a merger
Italian publication Corriere della Sera (which also has a great track record of airline industry scoops) has some further details about the long term vision of this partnership, according to several inside sources. The claim is that United is exploring various options with JetBlue, ranging from a commercial alliance to a full acquisition.
The leading idea is a three phase plan:
- As Reuters reported, the first phase would involve a loyalty program partnership (which doesn’t require government approval in a material way)
- The second phase would involve a strategic partnership, which could include a way for United to return to New York (JFK), as the airline wants to find a way to take over 20 daily slot pairs (20 departures and 20 arrivals) from JetBlue at the airport, with access to two gates
- The third phase would involve a full acquisition, provided that conditions are favorable; United management thinks it’ll have fewer challenges with this under the Trump administration
Again, it’s anyone’s guess how this all plays out. Both Reuters and Corriere are reporting the same concept for an initial partnership, and I imagine any subsequent developments won’t be finalized for some time.
It’s going to be fascinating to see how this plays out
The way I view it, the initial partnership (frequent flyer reciprocity) will have very little impact on the bottom line of either carrier.
Looking at it from United’s perspective, I guess this prevents JetBlue from partnering with another US airline, so that helps United’s competitive position. The old saying “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” comes to mind, with JetBlue’s two Northeast hubs also being Delta hubs.
United is part of the Star Alliance transatlantic joint venture, and perhaps there’s some opportunity for more connectivity in Boston (BOS) and New York (JFK) between JetBlue and United’s partners (Austrian, Lufthansa, SWISS, etc.). I’m not sure how exactly the joint venture is structured, as it doesn’t seem like that would lead to much revenue for United.
Sure, maybe being able to earn and redeem points on JetBlue makes United MileagePlus a bit more appealing, though I don’t think that would be any sort of a game changer. Quite to the contrary, I’d view the loyalty aspect of this as a zero sum game, since it’s not like the carriers are particularly complementary otherwise.
Furthermore, United doesn’t actually want its MileagePlus members flying JetBlue instead of United, since it’s not like there would be a revenue sharing agreement. The carriers’ networks just don’t cross paths in many places in a way that’s useful for travelers.
The initial agreement is perhaps even more puzzling from JetBlue’s perspective, because keep in mind that JetBlue seemingly turned down American in favor of United. American’s partnership with JetBlue was great for consumers, and made sense commercially, as it allowed JetBlue to provide feed for American’s long haul flights in New York and beyond, a win-win arrangement.
From a loyalty perspective, I’m also not convinced that this would hugely benefit JetBlue. If anything, it’s more likely that someone who flies JetBlue every once in a while would be engaged in United MileagePlus, if they could credit their JetBlue flights there.
However, I think all of this makes a lot more sense in the context of the long term vision. The initial commercial partnership is basically just a foot in the door approach, and a first step toward closer cooperation in the future.
I do also find the second phase sort of questionable from JetBlue’s perspective. Presumably if United were to get slots at JFK, the priority would be to offer premium transcontinental flights, to Los Angeles (LAX) and San Francisco (SFO), since that’s exactly what United did when it briefly returned to JFK a few years back, but not with the frequencies it wanted. That would be direct competition for JetBlue, and I can’t imagine JetBlue would allow that without a significant incentive.
It does appear that the end goal is a merger with JetBlue, and perhaps United executives think the best odds of that are by starting with a partnership, and making that closer and closer over time, until a merger isn’t that much of a leap anymore.
Bottom line
It’s basically confirmed that JetBlue and United are currently negotiating a partnership, and that something will be announced in the coming weeks. The plan is for the first phase of this partnership to largely be about frequent flyer reciprocity, so that members of both programs can earn and redeem points across both airlines.
However, it seems that there’s a much bigger long term vision here. After all, the first phase of this does nothing to fulfill United CEO Scott Kirby’s dream of the airline returning to JFK. From a regulatory perspective, I think this cozying up approach probably makes a lot of sense. Like, one wonder how long it’ll be until Kirby is walking around in a red hat. 😉
What do you make of JetBlue and United pursuing a partnership, plus the alleged plans?
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