It sure has been quite the week for JetBlue and its potential partnerships. We’ve known that JetBlue has been looking for a domestic airline partner, and until recently, it seemed like either American or United could be the best fit.
On Monday, American revealed it was no longer in discussions with JetBlue about a possible partnership, leading many of us to believe that a United partnership (or something) was incoming. Well, that’s basically now confirmed, and we’re learning more details of what this could look like.
In this post:
JetBlue & United intend to announce partnership soon
During JetBlue’s Q1 2025 earnings call on Tuesday, President Marty St. George was asked about domestic airline partnerships, and he suggested that JetBlue was very close to announcing such a deal, and it would include frequent flyer reciprocity. Specifically, he said the following:
“I need to make sure I reserve my comments based on what we have said publicly. And what we have said is we are looking at and we’re talking to multiple airlines about domestic partnerships. I think we’re getting very close to making announcement, expect to make the announcement this quarter. And as far as the benefits that we expect to offer to our customers, now the most important thing is number one, a significantly higher network opportunity for earn and burn of TrueBlue points, which we think greatly improves utility of TrueBlue.”
“Today, if you are a customer in the Northeast and you love JetBlue for leisure, but, you know, twice a year, you have to go to Omaha or Boise, these are places that you can’t earn through Blue points on now. And when this partnership goes forward, you will be able to. And the second thing is I’m really excited for just the overall broadening of the network opportunities, you know, not just connectivity, but also just sort of better opportunities for our customers to fly more places with more frequency.”
Later on Tuesday, Reuters reported that JetBlue and United are actively negotiating a partnership, according to several industry sources. Initially, the partnership is expected to be about providing greater connectivity to customers, and allowing them to earn and redeem frequent flyer points across the two carriers.
The initial scope of this partnership isn’t expected to be closer than that, so we won’t see coordinating of schedules or pricing, at least initially. Based on what we know about the partnership being proposed, at least the first phase of this shouldn’t face any sort of regulatory challenges. It’s also worth emphasizing that it’s not finalized yet, so things could still change.
The long term vision may involve JFK slots and a merger
Italian publication Corriere della Sera (which also has a great track record of airline industry scoops) has some further details about the long term vision of this partnership, according to several inside sources. The claim is that United is exploring various options with JetBlue, ranging from a commercial alliance to a full acquisition.
The leading idea is a three phase plan:
- As Reuters reported, the first phase would involve a loyalty program partnership (which doesn’t require government approval in a material way)
- The second phase would involve a strategic partnership, which could include a way for United to return to New York (JFK), as the airline wants to find a way to take over 20 daily slot pairs (20 departures and 20 arrivals) from JetBlue at the airport, with access to two gates
- The third phase would involve a full acquisition, provided that conditions are favorable; United management thinks it’ll have fewer challenges with this under the Trump administration
Again, it’s anyone’s guess how this all plays out. Both Reuters and Corriere are reporting the same concept for an initial partnership, and I imagine any subsequent developments won’t be finalized for some time.
It’s going to be fascinating to see how this plays out
The way I view it, the initial partnership (frequent flyer reciprocity) will have very little impact on the bottom line of either carrier.
Looking at it from United’s perspective, I guess this prevents JetBlue from partnering with another US airline, so that helps United’s competitive position. The old saying “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” comes to mind, with JetBlue’s two Northeast hubs also being Delta hubs.
United is part of the Star Alliance transatlantic joint venture, and perhaps there’s some opportunity for more connectivity in Boston (BOS) and New York (JFK) between JetBlue and United’s partners (Austrian, Lufthansa, SWISS, etc.). I’m not sure how exactly the joint venture is structured, as it doesn’t seem like that would lead to much revenue for United.
Sure, maybe being able to earn and redeem points on JetBlue makes United MileagePlus a bit more appealing, though I don’t think that would be any sort of a game changer. Quite to the contrary, I’d view the loyalty aspect of this as a zero sum game, since it’s not like the carriers are particularly complementary otherwise.
Furthermore, United doesn’t actually want its MileagePlus members flying JetBlue instead of United, since it’s not like there would be a revenue sharing agreement. The carriers’ networks just don’t cross paths in many places in a way that’s useful for travelers.
The initial agreement is perhaps even more puzzling from JetBlue’s perspective, because keep in mind that JetBlue seemingly turned down American in favor of United. American’s partnership with JetBlue was great for consumers, and made sense commercially, as it allowed JetBlue to provide feed for American’s long haul flights in New York and beyond, a win-win arrangement.
From a loyalty perspective, I’m also not convinced that this would hugely benefit JetBlue. If anything, it’s more likely that someone who flies JetBlue every once in a while would be engaged in United MileagePlus, if they could credit their JetBlue flights there.
However, I think all of this makes a lot more sense in the context of the long term vision. The initial commercial partnership is basically just a foot in the door approach, and a first step toward closer cooperation in the future.
I do also find the second phase sort of questionable from JetBlue’s perspective. Presumably if United were to get slots at JFK, the priority would be to offer premium transcontinental flights, to Los Angeles (LAX) and San Francisco (SFO), since that’s exactly what United did when it briefly returned to JFK a few years back, but not with the frequencies it wanted. That would be direct competition for JetBlue, and I can’t imagine JetBlue would allow that without a significant incentive.
It does appear that the end goal is a merger with JetBlue, and perhaps United executives think the best odds of that are by starting with a partnership, and making that closer and closer over time, until a merger isn’t that much of a leap anymore.
Bottom line
It’s basically confirmed that JetBlue and United are currently negotiating a partnership, and that something will be announced in the coming weeks. The plan is for the first phase of this partnership to largely be about frequent flyer reciprocity, so that members of both programs can earn and redeem points across both airlines.
However, it seems that there’s a much bigger long term vision here. After all, the first phase of this does nothing to fulfill United CEO Scott Kirby’s dream of the airline returning to JFK. From a regulatory perspective, I think this cozying up approach probably makes a lot of sense. Like, one wonder how long it’ll be until Kirby is walking around in a red hat. 😉
What do you make of JetBlue and United pursuing a partnership, plus the alleged plans?
I used to make the JetBlue (B6) "root canal" routing CLT-BOS-BUF that had a 6+ hour layover on the return. B6 has completely left CLT. I frequently fly United (UA) out of CLT and this partnership would give me more options. I see B6 giving its two operationally challenged European routings (JFK to LHR, and CDG) over to UA. B6 also does not have any access into Canada out of JFK.
I can envision B6...
I used to make the JetBlue (B6) "root canal" routing CLT-BOS-BUF that had a 6+ hour layover on the return. B6 has completely left CLT. I frequently fly United (UA) out of CLT and this partnership would give me more options. I see B6 giving its two operationally challenged European routings (JFK to LHR, and CDG) over to UA. B6 also does not have any access into Canada out of JFK.
I can envision B6 becoming UA's domestic arm with UA becoming the international arm. Historically, Northwest Airlines (Pacific Orient) was international and they acquired Republic airlines as their domestic feeder. Same thing with United, which has always been "Asia" focused. Anyways, is this another half baked idea? American had a partnership with JetBlue?
“ United is part of the Star Alliance transatlantic joint venture … I’m not sure how exactly the joint venture is structured, as it doesn’t seem like that would lead to much revenue for United.”
It would only benefit UA by increasing demand on the transatlantic portion.
A bit surprised you don’t know more how these metal neutral JVs are structured. They aren’t new or novel and there a bunch of them now.
And I thought LH code-shared with JetBlue in the past.
I could see it happening. But it will set a dangerous precedent. Because now, the DOJ can’t really say anything if American or Delta want to give it a go with an acquisition. AA and AS? Why not- JetBlue is bigger than AS and if they approve the United takeover then they can’t argue that one. Delta and Southwest? Let’s go. Spirit, Breeze, Sun Country? So many options.
Point being. United’s competition is not just...
I could see it happening. But it will set a dangerous precedent. Because now, the DOJ can’t really say anything if American or Delta want to give it a go with an acquisition. AA and AS? Why not- JetBlue is bigger than AS and if they approve the United takeover then they can’t argue that one. Delta and Southwest? Let’s go. Spirit, Breeze, Sun Country? So many options.
Point being. United’s competition is not just going to watch it happen and end up with nothing gained but five gates in dumpy Newark. If they can’t stop it, then they’re going to make moves of their own- there’s several struggling airlines ripe for the taking right now. A lot of turmoil ahead in the industry for sure
Now the question is A: will this merger actually go through, even if it does come about, and B: How will it play out? Will B6 just become a low cost carrier and retain their all economy aircraft for example or will they just be fully dissolved into UA.
Don't get me wrong I think this would heavily benefit UA both with logistics and need for aircraft as well as an increased level of...
Now the question is A: will this merger actually go through, even if it does come about, and B: How will it play out? Will B6 just become a low cost carrier and retain their all economy aircraft for example or will they just be fully dissolved into UA.
Don't get me wrong I think this would heavily benefit UA both with logistics and need for aircraft as well as an increased level of service (maybe) and possibly even the consumer depending on how it plays out. Overall I would love to see this play out, but in the right way.
When @JonNYC initially announced this, there was talk of United talking to a long-time partner about this. Lufthansa held a major stake at B6 before they sold it. The LH group carriers all serve JFK and could most certainly use connectivity there.
With those 20 slots i could see at least a daily flight to FRA, LHR, ZRH or MUC on United. Could Jetblue then serve secondary German cities like Düsseldorf with the A321 LR/ XLR?
Does the UTF from JetBlue get transferred over to United? This is still litigation
AA takes control of B6 (with an easy DOJ approval) by directing its west coast proxy AS to purchase B6. Checkmate.
Sorry, but AS is busy with their own acquisition and quite frankly, AA just isn't that smart anymore. They're playing checkers while UA is playing chess.
How would American "direct" an airline that it doesn't have a controlling share in, to do so?
And how could Alaska do so, when it's leveraged to the hilt, via taking over Hawaiian?
Alaska airlines does fly to Omaha and Boise. While it’s probably United, I don’t see anything that confirms it and Alaska + Jet Blue would be an interesting route structure to develop over time.
Multiple reasons why a merger won’t happen.
Overlap- United has bases in most JetBlue bases already EWR, BOS, FLL,LAX to mention a few. You mean to tell me they would gain all those extra slots then be able to become way larger? That’s not even including JFK! That’s way too much unfair market share gain. Something tells me that will it would be blocked even with Trump as president.
The process of a merger...
Multiple reasons why a merger won’t happen.
Overlap- United has bases in most JetBlue bases already EWR, BOS, FLL,LAX to mention a few. You mean to tell me they would gain all those extra slots then be able to become way larger? That’s not even including JFK! That’s way too much unfair market share gain. Something tells me that will it would be blocked even with Trump as president.
The process of a merger is very long and drawn out. How many pilots does United have? Something tells me they are not going to be all too happy about their seniority possibly going down the drain.
Contracts take years so it’s not only their contacts that will be up but then you have to get totally new contracts for the flight attendants and the pilots again. By that time Trump will not be in power and lawsuits will still likely be in place
You're talking about voluntary mergers like Spirit/JetBlue. But if it's a case of JetBlue collapsing and it's better for someone to take over and save maybe 2/3 of the jobs (rather than all the jobs gone), then that's a whole other issue.
I've said for years JetBlue is this decade's PeoplExpress. Someone's going to eat them up on the way to a 1500-plane fleet. Not a good scenario for consumers, but neither was any of...
You're talking about voluntary mergers like Spirit/JetBlue. But if it's a case of JetBlue collapsing and it's better for someone to take over and save maybe 2/3 of the jobs (rather than all the jobs gone), then that's a whole other issue.
I've said for years JetBlue is this decade's PeoplExpress. Someone's going to eat them up on the way to a 1500-plane fleet. Not a good scenario for consumers, but neither was any of the mergers and acquisitions in the last 30 years.
If someone were to eat them up it would likely be Alaska. No major market overlap in bases and doesn’t create an unfair advantage.
You seriously are delusional. This United/JetBlue merger will end up happening, it won't be a long process for things to start being complete. Look at T-Mobile/Sprint for example, everyone thought the merger wouldn't work out and guess what? T-Mobile under Trump is going stronger everyday since the merger happened.
So is this the start of the dominos? United/JetBlue, American/Alaska and, the big one, Delta/Southwest.
Flip that because Delta and Southwest not happening.
American and Southwest since they have similar red neck clientele
If a merciful God exists I hope he doesn’t allow AS/AA
I don't really understand why United is so obsessed with having ~10 flights/day to JFK, all to California. I guess some corporate procurement demands it? EWR is scarcely less convenient to most of Manhattan
@ Will -- Well, that goal is step two of this process. Step three is fully taking over JetBlue, and having access to a LOT more slots at JFK (assuming a merger would be approved).
But is there any chance that actually works out? Even with Trump, I can't see United being allowed to have a fortress hub at EWR AND a significant hub at JFK.
I'm far from knowledgeable in this, but I feel like United would need to give up a bunch of slots at EWR if a full acquisition were to happen, either that or they only end up with a fraction of B6's current slots at JFK...
I just don't know whether other airlines would want a significant number of the EWR slots?
EWR is not slot controlled.
The issue there is real estate/gates.
If it was up to Kirby, he would dump Newark for an entire terminal (T5) at JFK.
Could this backfire and make AA stronger? Under a merger, AA would surely gain a hefty number of slots at JFK. Those, along with any unused ones, would make AA a sizeable, competitive number two.
I could see BOS being somewhat attractive for UA, but FLL would be junk and wouldn't be able to compete with MIA.
@ DL -- Anything is possible, but American has struggled to even use the slots that it does have at JFK, so I'm not sure how having even more slots would help American, at least under its current strategy.
America's problem is that the airline only seems to succeed in fortress hubs where it can funnel unlimited traffic, and even then, it's not great with long haul service. JFK isn't exactly the ideal airport for that kind of service.
As a Florida guy who travels a lot for business, I am not sure where you get the FLL is junk compared to MIA. Coming from Palm Beach County, I try to avoid MIA at all costs. I will do FLL for a lot of flights and PBI whenever I can. If United acquires JetBlue it would finally give them a good hub in Florida as FLL would be great for them. My 2 airlines I fly are UA and Jetblue and this would allow me to combine everything into one.
I'm curious if United can do this in a way that isn't ultimately extremely expensive (the JFK return strategy, that is).
The way these things typically work:
- CEO has a critical pillar of their long-term strategy/vision (we NEED to return to JFK)
- Team comes up with a variety of options, most of which end up not being viable
- There's a long-shot option that has a bunch of ancillary...
I'm curious if United can do this in a way that isn't ultimately extremely expensive (the JFK return strategy, that is).
The way these things typically work:
- CEO has a critical pillar of their long-term strategy/vision (we NEED to return to JFK)
- Team comes up with a variety of options, most of which end up not being viable
- There's a long-shot option that has a bunch of ancillary crap they don't want (acquiring JetBlue)
- CEO pressures Finance teams to model out what scenarios could make sense for United / be ROI positive
- Model indicates narrow path or a path that doesn't exist in any reality
- Executive team push back on assumptions / refine the model until it shows a rosy picture
- Pitch this to shareholders and move forward, earning a nice pay package and ultimately destroying shareholder value that may not materialize when they're still CEO.
I swear some of you wish for the day there's only one american carrier, this is terrible for the consumer. This is just a lot of bs, there's no need to pretend United won't be allowed to buy it, if it's gonna get JetBlue anyway, just bid for it, merge it and call it a day, the outcome will be the same. I call bs on this approach, talk about faking a partnertship!!! LOL
Just...
I swear some of you wish for the day there's only one american carrier, this is terrible for the consumer. This is just a lot of bs, there's no need to pretend United won't be allowed to buy it, if it's gonna get JetBlue anyway, just bid for it, merge it and call it a day, the outcome will be the same. I call bs on this approach, talk about faking a partnertship!!! LOL
Just buy the damn thing already, nobody seems to care you'll get your way. This is very sad news for JetBlue and its loyal customers.
It's so funny to see you guys fighting over JFK, it will never work for United, JFK/LGA operations work very well for the other two, but EWR/JFK will never work, not even for a bigger and stronger United.
I mostly agree. United should pay for a bunch of slots, maybe 10-20 landing slots and the rest of JetBlue to Alaska or Southwest. Southwest is in bad shape now so Alaska. Then name the airline JetBlue or Hawaiian. The fat heads in Alaska think their name is so great but only in Seattle and Anchorage does the name mean anything.
Alaska has their hands full with the Hawaiian integration. It will be at least two years before they're ready to focus on anything else. They have to scale up in SEA for long haul expansion. If UA is going to do it, now is the time. AA is a mess, AS is busy. WN is a mess.
I also thought Alaska keeping their name after this merger is kinda whack, I understand their identities are important for their "core" markets but that dual identity thing will be very confusing, that could've been a nice chance to come up with something very new, original and very representative of the USA. I really don't see JetBlue being absorbed into any airline that's not AA. I wish they could stay independent and profitable but it...
I also thought Alaska keeping their name after this merger is kinda whack, I understand their identities are important for their "core" markets but that dual identity thing will be very confusing, that could've been a nice chance to come up with something very new, original and very representative of the USA. I really don't see JetBlue being absorbed into any airline that's not AA. I wish they could stay independent and profitable but it seems unlikely, and it is sad seeing people cheering for a United takeover.
This is a strategic blunder for AA.
but... what else is new with that ? AA has a long and rich history of acquiring other carriers..( Air Cal, Reno Air, TWA ) then dropping the routes. Creating and abandoning hubs/focus cities... Nashville, San Jose et al. Yes you are correct but that's what AA does.
Really no confusion here IMO. Kirby has stated two things: missed opportunity by letting JFK slots go, and no desire to full out merge/buy out an airline. So you have B6. Starts as a simple agreement, but behind the scenes develop further. JetBlue starts running codeshare flights from JFK. And BOS and FLL, but this is all about JFK to be clear. No regulatory issues. It just says operated by JetBlue when you book it...
Really no confusion here IMO. Kirby has stated two things: missed opportunity by letting JFK slots go, and no desire to full out merge/buy out an airline. So you have B6. Starts as a simple agreement, but behind the scenes develop further. JetBlue starts running codeshare flights from JFK. And BOS and FLL, but this is all about JFK to be clear. No regulatory issues. It just says operated by JetBlue when you book it on United.
If it goes further after that, then it does. But being able to sell JFK TATL is something UAL has been sniffing so much they can taste it. They just don't want to have to buy an airline to do it, at least not right away.
Poor American. They can't seem to do anything right. Probably thought they could get favorable terms in the NEA with B6, and didn't realize the writing on the wall. B6 had eyes on another partner.
American has one choice.
Buy B6 to stop UAL. There are enough concessions that could be made to satisfy Trump admin.
People are heavily influenced by loss aversion though. The concessions American would have to make likely seem too great compared to the long-term benefit strategically.
"American has one choice.
Buy B6 to stop UAL."
That's what I'm wondering, if it's now hostile takeover (in desperation) time? And would AA have the money to do so?
Interesting reporting from Enilria: "Currently, the leading idea is a three-phase plan: first, a basic commercial alliance (as reported by Reuters), which would be quicker to get approved by regulators; then a strategic partnership; and finally, a full acquisition, provided conditions are favorable.
According to the story, JetBlue would give United 20 New York JFK slots pairs to fly to Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Florida. "
Why Florida?? Maybe to connect FLL with...
Interesting reporting from Enilria: "Currently, the leading idea is a three-phase plan: first, a basic commercial alliance (as reported by Reuters), which would be quicker to get approved by regulators; then a strategic partnership; and finally, a full acquisition, provided conditions are favorable.
According to the story, JetBlue would give United 20 New York JFK slots pairs to fly to Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Florida. "
Why Florida?? Maybe to connect FLL with JV Star Alliance carriers at JFK?
Yes- probably to connect *A carriers which are also close UA partners on both ends (LH Group, ANA, and NZ at JFK, Avianca/Copa at FLL).
I see at least one benefit: BOS-LHR.
If B6 and UA start codesharing on this route, it will benefit both.
Rather disagree that UA is getting the better deal here. J6 has a pathetic presence outside of the East Coast. With AA out, J6 absolutely needs another legacy carrier's connections for West Coat traffic.
I think this is a prelude to merger because B6 and AA makes more sense given AA's European service out of JFK. I think if UA and B6 merge AA could benefit, they would need to give up slots at BOS, and JFK which AA would certainly get a sizeable number being the #3 Airlines and likely give some to LUV and the LLCs but their financial situation gives AA the upper hand. AA could...
I think this is a prelude to merger because B6 and AA makes more sense given AA's European service out of JFK. I think if UA and B6 merge AA could benefit, they would need to give up slots at BOS, and JFK which AA would certainly get a sizeable number being the #3 Airlines and likely give some to LUV and the LLCs but their financial situation gives AA the upper hand. AA could easily make BOS a hub (it's almost as big as DL there now) and make NYC more connected to major US business markets and expand XLR service to Europe. Interesting times for UA and B6, getting the popcorn ready to sit back and watch.
We'll see about mergers/consolidation but I do agree AA (and its JV partners) would essentially get a chunk of BOS/JFK slots by default if UA/B6 ultimately did merge, since AA is a clear/distant third to DL and B6 now.
This is what I was questioning earlier. I think AA stands to gain in JFK and BOS. FLL would be a pit for UA.
No mention of the soon to be finished Terminal 6 at JFK which will directly connect with JetBlue's T5. From prior discussions, the new terminal will host Star Alliance airlines allowing B6 to provide domestic connections.
JetBlue's TALT footprint does not overlap with Europa Star Alliance carriers and B6 has no Asian coverage. Also, allows B6 customer to redeem points on Star Alliance carriers at JFK.
In a subtle way, JetBlue becomes the dominate...
No mention of the soon to be finished Terminal 6 at JFK which will directly connect with JetBlue's T5. From prior discussions, the new terminal will host Star Alliance airlines allowing B6 to provide domestic connections.
JetBlue's TALT footprint does not overlap with Europa Star Alliance carriers and B6 has no Asian coverage. Also, allows B6 customer to redeem points on Star Alliance carriers at JFK.
In a subtle way, JetBlue becomes the dominate Star Alliance carrier at JFK.
I concur. While all of the other reasons cited would make some sense, Scott Kirby has made it clear with actions and public comments that he wanted back in to JFK somehow. jetBlue's hub status there and newly freed slots thanks to JetForward make this arrangement the least cost of entry for United to right-size itself on both sides of the Hudson.
Coincidence that UA also operated from the former Terminal 6 (Sundrome) and eventually Terminal 7.
It sets up an eventual combination of the two airlines.
I'm confused that you are confused. JetBlue has their main strengths in ony three airports: JFK, BOS, and FLL. All of which are fairly weak for UA. Meanwhile, UA has a large network with it's main strengths in the central and western portions of the country. Very complimentary networks. If I need to fly MKE-BOS, now I can take JetBlue rather than connecting via ORD or EWR. If I'm a Bostonian who usually flies JetBlue,...
I'm confused that you are confused. JetBlue has their main strengths in ony three airports: JFK, BOS, and FLL. All of which are fairly weak for UA. Meanwhile, UA has a large network with it's main strengths in the central and western portions of the country. Very complimentary networks. If I need to fly MKE-BOS, now I can take JetBlue rather than connecting via ORD or EWR. If I'm a Bostonian who usually flies JetBlue, now I can fly UA to those places where JetBlue doesn't fly and still earn on my Mosaic account. It's very smart and they probably aren't done yet.
Compared to american and delta, united has a bigger international network and a smaller domestic one. I can see that it would help to feed people from jetblue to their international flights but they use newark not jfk so i'm not sure how this can work!
I think the rationale for these kind of agreements/mergers is pretty straight forward - even if it doesn't add to the bottom line of the larger company doing the purchasing/pulling the strings (UA), it takes the smaller purchased carrier (B6) off the market. And in turn, stifles any of the larger carriers main competitors (eg AA, DL, AS) expanding by getting their hands on JetBlue.
Exactly, because if UA doesn't tie them up now, AS will surely come for them in a couple of years after they've absorbed HA. It would be a natural fit to expand over the Atlantic with JFK/BOS. This will stunt their growth and keep them as a regional West coast player.
United has wanted a way back into JFK for some years now. This may be an attempt at that.
It's quite possible that United and JetBlue are forming a partnership simply to form a partnership. Why does there have to be an ulterior motive or a hidden agenda?
United and JetBlue are both for-profit enterprises in a capitalist society.
That's how the world works. And I am completely at ease with it. For example, I know I'm not George Clooney. I'm not even Brad Karp. So, when a woman dates me, even though she will not say it...
United and JetBlue are both for-profit enterprises in a capitalist society.
That's how the world works. And I am completely at ease with it. For example, I know I'm not George Clooney. I'm not even Brad Karp. So, when a woman dates me, even though she will not say it outright, I know a motivating factor is my socioeconomic status--my position in society as an equity partner at a top grossing law firm. That compensates for my appearance, which--I shall emphasize--while it won't make the front cover of GQ, is plenty adequate in consort with my charm and charisma which are instrumental to my success as a law firm partner.
This guy must lead a very sad life. No one in that situation mentions it so often to internet strangers on a blog where it’s not even relevant.
are you off your meds again ?
Literally everyone predicted this everyone in the comment stop pretending you are some sort of persecuted soothsayer
Where does United want to fly from JFK? LAX, SFO, maybe ORD, IAH? Does it also want a LHR flight? 11 landing slots? Or let JetBlue fly ORD and IAH so United has 7 landing slots?
They only need LAX and SFO. All their other hubs go to LGA, which is better than JFK.
There are exactly ZERO flights between JFK and LHR on a Star Alliance carrier so UA would finally be back in that game.
It's all dependent on the details, and UA/B6 know that of course. They could bracket NYC between JFK and EWR. UA would likely return to JFK for transcontinental and select markets with B6 slots. That, along with loyalty reciprocation, could provide some feed for B6 not so great TATL routes, which are minimal enough not to affect UAs EWR operation. B6s Florida operation will also help UA.
DL is strong enough at JFK and LGA...
It's all dependent on the details, and UA/B6 know that of course. They could bracket NYC between JFK and EWR. UA would likely return to JFK for transcontinental and select markets with B6 slots. That, along with loyalty reciprocation, could provide some feed for B6 not so great TATL routes, which are minimal enough not to affect UAs EWR operation. B6s Florida operation will also help UA.
DL is strong enough at JFK and LGA that they'll be fine.
The one that will lose is AA. Getting the oneworld alliance mostly consolidated at T8 helps, but they don't have a robust feeder network. Maybe oneworld is just all about O/D from NYC? Of all markets, along with LAX, I guess that could work?
You seem to conveniently forget that JetBlue was getting the short end of the stick with the NEA. According to the lawsuit filed by the DOJ, JetBlue ended up owing more money to American Airlines than vice versa. So yeah, JetBlue got LGA slots but at what cost? They owes American money and were playing to be their regional airline. That is not a good business move for JetBlue. And I’m glad Auntie Jojo undid that NEA mistake.
This seems pretty simple to me Ben: There are a lot of fliers in BOS, JFK/LGA, and FLL that would maybe like to be loyal to JB but don't because it can't get them to a lot of destinations. Now it can via UA hubs. That levels the playing field for JB vs. DL (BOS, JFK/LGA) and AA (MIA). UA gets to tap a lot of passengers in those same places that otherwise wouldn't even...
This seems pretty simple to me Ben: There are a lot of fliers in BOS, JFK/LGA, and FLL that would maybe like to be loyal to JB but don't because it can't get them to a lot of destinations. Now it can via UA hubs. That levels the playing field for JB vs. DL (BOS, JFK/LGA) and AA (MIA). UA gets to tap a lot of passengers in those same places that otherwise wouldn't even consider UA, especially for international trips. In east NYC you might even get fliers who use JB for regular trips out of LGA or JFK, but are willing to cross over to EWR for a big international trip from time to time.
As far as JFK, UA may or may not lease slots from JB, but it doesn’t really matter. UA loses the loyalty of some West Coast fliers (and corporate contracts) because they can’t get them to Long Island nonstop, but now those fliers can just use JB (and Mint) for those flights.
Well played UA. But, the JFK angle is vastly overblown. It's the belief of extremely online incels who think they know the NYC market. Ben, I know you're not an incel and your online activity (i.e. blog posts) generate net revenue, so it's surprising to see you harp up the JFK angle.
Because UA has EWR, they don't need JFK. Period. Full stop. I will start with very simple facts. I pulled these numbers...
Well played UA. But, the JFK angle is vastly overblown. It's the belief of extremely online incels who think they know the NYC market. Ben, I know you're not an incel and your online activity (i.e. blog posts) generate net revenue, so it's surprising to see you harp up the JFK angle.
Because UA has EWR, they don't need JFK. Period. Full stop. I will start with very simple facts. I pulled these numbers from Google Maps just now.
1 Manhattan West to EWR: 21 minutes
1 Manhattan West to JFK: 35 minutes
Tribeca to EWR: 19 minutes
Tribeca to JFK: 35 minutes
Upper West Side to EWR: 34 minutes
Upper West Side to JFK: 35 minutes
Let me contextualize these locations for those unfamiliar with NYC. Virtually all high-income people work near, or literally in, Hudson Yards/Manhattan West. This neighborhood has the highest commercial rent in all of Manhattan meaning only the most prestigious and profitable firms can afford to lease offices there. Virtually all wealthy people live in Tribeca (or the adjacent West Village) if they don't have kids and the Upper West Side if they do. Note that in all cases EWR is a closer in airport.
The customers who would fly UA out of JFK instead of EWR, ceteris paribus, are poorer and lower class.
Yeah, virtually all investment banks and a vast majority of law firms are still in Midtown East…
But I get it, it’s only because the likes of JPM or law firms with higher PEP than Skadden (like Davis Polk) cannot afford to be in Hudson Yards.
Investment banking is a stepping stone to private equity which redefines what it means to be high income. Jamie Dimon makes $40 million a year while the co-CEOs of KKR, which is in Hudson Yards, make over $500m. Each. That's right, over half a billion dollars a year.
Law firm profit per equity partner is a metric that can be gamed by, for example, cheaping out on office rent. In all seriousness Davis Polk is...
Investment banking is a stepping stone to private equity which redefines what it means to be high income. Jamie Dimon makes $40 million a year while the co-CEOs of KKR, which is in Hudson Yards, make over $500m. Each. That's right, over half a billion dollars a year.
Law firm profit per equity partner is a metric that can be gamed by, for example, cheaping out on office rent. In all seriousness Davis Polk is an excellent firm, and Midtown East near Grand Central is a logical place to have an office, but--trust me on this--Skadden is better. Do I have any data? Well what kind of lawyer would I be if I didn't. The Vault rankings, which are based on surveys of associates, put Skadden comfortably above Davis Polk.
As an aside let's query Google Maps again
Davis Polk offices to EWR: 35 min
Davis Polk offices to JFK: 32 min
However, note three things. One, there's a closure on a New Jersey highway right this moment which means the current travel time is higher than normal. Two, those numbers do not reflect any choice of terminal. For JFK, if you specify Terminal 4, where Delta is, then the current travel time is quoted at 36 minutes.
Anyway, Skadden has never been the most profitable firm, but--now I know I'm not the first person to claim this--it's not all about the money. Is there anything you can do in life with $7 million a year that you cannot also do at $6 million? The people you work with outweigh any consideration at those margins. Skadden doesn't just have the most amazing lawyers. Skadden has the most amazing people.
Seek help.
Agreed Jacob. Kinda getting some neurodivergent vibes off these comments. Which is fine but yeah.
Sir, this is a Wendy's.
LOL !
I don’t think the JFK play is about point to point domestic travel. It’s about connecting to the rest of the world where the star alliance partners fly.
1) Bracketing the nations largest market geographically is still smart, even if they may be forced to divest some gates if they take this further;
2) The world doesn't revolve around New York and JetBlue's stronghold at FLL gives UA the Florida "hub" that they've been looking for. New York may be a large market with a lot of money (both are obviously important) but it's not a growing market. Florida is growing and the...
1) Bracketing the nations largest market geographically is still smart, even if they may be forced to divest some gates if they take this further;
2) The world doesn't revolve around New York and JetBlue's stronghold at FLL gives UA the Florida "hub" that they've been looking for. New York may be a large market with a lot of money (both are obviously important) but it's not a growing market. Florida is growing and the marketplace between the USA and Latin America is rapidly growing . FLL is a better location to serve that market than IAH is; though this isn't an either/or - having both is even better.
The world might not. But the United States most certainly does. Every other American city is irrelevant by comparison
Hahahaha! And that's why the rest of us despise New York. Which matters because it's becoming less influential every year.
Don't feel bad for poor Skaddie here. his masters don't allow him to ever leave his office which is why he doesn't realize that plenty of those rich people may work in Manhattan but then live in Westchester or NJ or Long Island (not to mention Brooklyn or Greenwich CT). Scarsdale has the highest median income of any town in the country and that isn't from people working at the local Dunkin donuts.
For those...
Don't feel bad for poor Skaddie here. his masters don't allow him to ever leave his office which is why he doesn't realize that plenty of those rich people may work in Manhattan but then live in Westchester or NJ or Long Island (not to mention Brooklyn or Greenwich CT). Scarsdale has the highest median income of any town in the country and that isn't from people working at the local Dunkin donuts.
For those that have a life outside of their cubicle in midtown, many of them prefer JFK for convenience to their home.
Finally, what Mr. Equity Partner here neglects to tell you is that the true big dogs in NY are the finance guys. They view their lawyers as little more than their butlers who clean up after the handshakes are done over a round of golf at Pebble Beach.
Lawyers are like napkins. No one goes to a restaurant for their napkins. They go for the meal. And after they've had their fill, they use their napkin to keep their mouth clean. If the napkin happens to catch a few crumbs of whatever their client ordered, no one minds or even cares. Like all hired help, even those paid well, the best ones know not to disturb the main action.
Skaddie boy here might like to boast about how much silkier he is, and the quality of the crumbs he catches from his master's mouth, but make no mistake he's an afterthought when the finance guys have already moved on to desert.
And as for the quality of women that go after aging lawyers vs young mid-level finance guys who are already out-earning them, well... The less said the better.
Depending on how generous I’m feeling I’d say either PEBaller can’t read, or missed my earlier comment in this very comment thread. I said factually the average partner pay at top law firms is $6-7m while the KKR co-CEOs earn $500m so I’m not under any delusions, thank you very much.
I still look up to lawyers more than financiers.
@Arps:
United absolutely needs Idlewild (a.k.a JFK)!!!
You are correct that transit between Newark, New Jersey (EWR) is most often faster if your destination is Manhattan or certainly other locations west of the Hudson River.
That having been said, EWR is a nightmare if you are in locations east of the East River, north of Manhattan, including all of Long Island, Westchester, and Southwest Connecticut.
I'll ignore your snarky comments that “the customers who would...
@Arps:
United absolutely needs Idlewild (a.k.a JFK)!!!
You are correct that transit between Newark, New Jersey (EWR) is most often faster if your destination is Manhattan or certainly other locations west of the Hudson River.
That having been said, EWR is a nightmare if you are in locations east of the East River, north of Manhattan, including all of Long Island, Westchester, and Southwest Connecticut.
I'll ignore your snarky comments that “the customers who would fly UA out of JFK instead of EWR, ceteris paribus, are poorer and lower class.” There is no basis for that!!!
Jeff Smisek’s abandonment of Idlewild (JFK) was a disaster which United has been trying to recover from for years now since they gave up their gates / slots. It isn’t only a matter of convenience of access from Manhattan, but also the inability to fully coordinate with the international flights of United’s Star Alliance partners who do not also have EWR as a major destination.
If I was a betting person, I would bet that the first United flights under this arrangement would be premium-heavy non-stop flights to and from SFO and LAX which if I recall correctly were very popular before they were discontinued by Smisek.
I’d add that flying out of EWR largely means using United… and there’s not much that’s premium about that airline (long haul). I often prefer to fly from JFK because the airline I want to fly doesn’t fly from EWR, or flight times are suboptimal, or the lounge experience is poor.
So the CEO of United, who's been very publicly yearning to get back into JFK for months, doesn't know the market for business flyers as well as our friend here from Skadden Arps Misguided & Arrogant.
Side note: I live in one of the wealthy Brooklyn neighborhoods, where real estate is more expensive than in many parts of Manhattan. Business and leisure traffic out of these neighborhoods, which feeds naturally into JFK, is very...
So the CEO of United, who's been very publicly yearning to get back into JFK for months, doesn't know the market for business flyers as well as our friend here from Skadden Arps Misguided & Arrogant.
Side note: I live in one of the wealthy Brooklyn neighborhoods, where real estate is more expensive than in many parts of Manhattan. Business and leisure traffic out of these neighborhoods, which feeds naturally into JFK, is very appetizing for any airline. Not everybody is a (pompous) lawyer in the wasteland of Midtown Manhattan, thank heavens.
That's "I'm captain of the JV team" energy
"That's "I'm captain of the JV team" energy"
So is being a lawyer in NYC. don't you have some document to review?
Getting back to the topic, in addition to the tons of rich people for whom JFK is more convenient than EWR, you're neglecting the other side of the traffic. People from LAX, SFO, LHR, etc flying into New York want to fly into JFK. even if they're going into Manhattan, if you're not...
"That's "I'm captain of the JV team" energy"
So is being a lawyer in NYC. don't you have some document to review?
Getting back to the topic, in addition to the tons of rich people for whom JFK is more convenient than EWR, you're neglecting the other side of the traffic. People from LAX, SFO, LHR, etc flying into New York want to fly into JFK. even if they're going into Manhattan, if you're not familiar with the city or aren't an avgeek, the first airport you'll search for is JFK. Even if your assertion about new Yorkers and EWR is correct (it's not) that's only half the tradfic.
FWIW I live on the UWS and EWR is definitely more convenient for me. But unlike Mr. Skadden Arps I recognize New York is larger than just a few parts of Manhattan and can totally see why United would want to be in JFK at least for a few lucrative destinations.
Mr. Skadden Arps?
Look, to say nothing of the rest of your comment, I’ll take that as a compliment.
So happy if this goes through, as a 1K I use United as my main carrier, but being able to earn on JetBlue really opens up a lot more options, especially since all my routes involve connections through a hub, when there are times I've had to fly Jetblue due to the nonstop option, or because they actually have a decent florida presence
Locking in B6 is a masterclass move by UA. Gotta imagine AA and DL are licking their wounds here given their weaknesses in the Northeast and Florida, respectively. Nicely played to UA management!
In what way are AA/DL weak in the Northeast and Florida?
AA has PHL/DCA (if you consider DC the Northeast) strongholds + a moderate presence at JFK/LGA/BOS, with the ability to ramp up at JFK if they so desired.
DL also has sizeable Florida operations like longhaul flights out of MCO and TPA. Even MIA gets specialty non-hub routes like HAV and DCA. DL is certainly much larger than UA in Florida.
If anything UA...
In what way are AA/DL weak in the Northeast and Florida?
AA has PHL/DCA (if you consider DC the Northeast) strongholds + a moderate presence at JFK/LGA/BOS, with the ability to ramp up at JFK if they so desired.
DL also has sizeable Florida operations like longhaul flights out of MCO and TPA. Even MIA gets specialty non-hub routes like HAV and DCA. DL is certainly much larger than UA in Florida.
If anything UA was the weakest of the three in the Northeast/Florida, which is exactly why they wanted this.
. . . even assuming arguendo that everything you wrote is true, your post only serves to underscore the point that locking in B6 is a masterclass move by UA and AA and DL are licking their wounds, so thanks for that I guess lol
I'm pointing out your pseudointellectual claim is based entirely on a flawed premise.
The reality is that UA was the weakest in those markets you alluded to, and precisely why they went for this partnership.
No one has any idea how this partnership will actually pan out, so no one is "licking their wounds". It's entirely possible that this all amounts to very little. Absolutely nothing you said was grounded in factual basis.
oh got it, so this is about defending the dignity of one of AA/DL. AA doesn't really have deranged stans, so you're just another DL lickspittle with a grievance. if i'd realized you're a mentee of the guy who's blocked i would have ignored from the start, so thanks for clearing that up haha
Is AA able to ramp up JFK if they wanted? I know they have the terminal space but didn’t know they had the take off / landing slots
Strategically, this is not beneficial for WN in any shape, way, or form but seems to benefit B6 in aligning with an Alliance. An Alliance partnering which was declined by the last admin which deemed AA + B6 NEA would be un-beneficial for consumers.
This time around, I wonder if a UA Alliance would be a MORE beneficial for NEW YORK and NE air travel consumers and meet with approval success.
Shuttle Memories… besides...
Strategically, this is not beneficial for WN in any shape, way, or form but seems to benefit B6 in aligning with an Alliance. An Alliance partnering which was declined by the last admin which deemed AA + B6 NEA would be un-beneficial for consumers.
This time around, I wonder if a UA Alliance would be a MORE beneficial for NEW YORK and NE air travel consumers and meet with approval success.
Shuttle Memories… besides Eastern, Pan Am and New York Air. Can anyone think of any others!!! (;
April 1st was a few weeks ago
Why in the world would they mention Omaha as if anyone cares about flying there and like it’s a high yield market? lol I’m guessing they tried to fool people into thinking it was Southwest.
Pretty evident talking about cities B6 has no intention or ability to fly to now or in the near future.
As a very occasional JetBlue flyer, I would love to credit my flights to United. It would encourage me to fly JetBlue more. So perhaps there is an upside to JetBlue in that way.
Yeah it doesn't seem to make any sense at all. In spite of what the B6 CEO said, UA doesn't fly to Boise or Omaha from BOS, JFK, or FLL/MIA. The only overlap within the same catchment is EWR, which is not the same as JFK/LGA. I guess maybe more BOS/JFK feed into UA's TPAC flights for LAX/SFO?
The only upside I see as a flyer is more redemption options for Polaris w/ JetBlue points?...
Yeah it doesn't seem to make any sense at all. In spite of what the B6 CEO said, UA doesn't fly to Boise or Omaha from BOS, JFK, or FLL/MIA. The only overlap within the same catchment is EWR, which is not the same as JFK/LGA. I guess maybe more BOS/JFK feed into UA's TPAC flights for LAX/SFO?
The only upside I see as a flyer is more redemption options for Polaris w/ JetBlue points? Even then UA has been cracking down hard on partners and Aeroplan increased the UA redemptions quite significantly.
This is all about JFK.
@ 54austin -- Which is of course what I think, but I don't see how anything happens at JFK without some sort of an agreement that requires substantial regulatory approval.
Could be a simple codeshare and FFP agreement. Overtime B6 can start flights to UA hubs to feed some of their flights. B6 codeshares with TK, QR, EY, MS etc so it would be something similar. B6 can also start selling UA flights and get the codeshare commission.
I disagree. It's about both JFK and FLL. BOS doesn't hurt either; UA used to be a lot stronger there.
Consolidation is generally bad for consumers but if it has to happen I would prefer B6/UA, as it would challenge DLs dominance in BOS and AAs dominance in the Miami area. AA/B6 is just AA blatantly taking a direct competitor
Ha! I called this weeks ago and person after person responded how stupid and uninformed I was...
You (nor anyone else) most definitely didn't call it as long ago as -I- did and you cant imagine the kinda shit I took for it :D
I actually called it before you, and that's because I work for one of them. Guess who?
Same. I even had the opportunity to ask one of the decision makers about it in 2019. At the time, I was told that the VERY reasons that would make an acquisition attractive would be the same things that would most likely have to be divested. What a difference 5 or 6 years makes. The landscape has changed.
You, and all the other commenters to your message, are having the last laugh. Goes to show how hard it is to predict the future of the airline industry.