In 2021, we saw the launch of Breeze Airways, a new ultra low cost carrier founded by serial airline entrepreneur David Neeleman (also behind JetBlue, WestJet, Azul, and more).
On the surface, the carrier’s business model seemed like a huge value-add for the traveling public — the airline primarily flies Airbus A220s in a very comfortable configuration in point-to-point markets that are underserved. Breeze is an ultra low cost carrier with a pleasant product.
As great as that sounds, so far the airline is struggling to turn a profit (and that’s being polite). One has to wonder how much longer the airline can sustain these kinds of losses. I can’t imagine who would invest more money in this operation, when airlines are questionable investments under the best of circumstances.
In this post:
Breeze Airways’ financials aren’t pretty
In this post I wanted to take a look at what we know about Breeze Airways’ financials. Breeze isn’t publicly traded, so we don’t get detailed financials. However, even privately owned airlines have to submit a Form 41 Financial Schedule with the US Department of Transportation (DOT), which has all kinds of fascinating details.
The website enilria.com has a detailed look at just how bad Breeze’s financials are. Let’s just take a look at Breeze’s revenue and operating expenses for seven consecutive quarters from Q1 2022 to Q3 2023:
Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Profit (Loss) | Margin |
Q1 2022 | $17,194,380 | $38,221,230 | ($21,026,850) | -122% |
Q2 2022 | $28,113,070 | $64,617,250 | ($36,504,180) | -130% |
Q3 2022 | $34,470,200 | $72,366,360 | ($37,896,160) | -110% |
Q4 2022 | $55,574,110 | $86,233,630 | ($30,659,520) | -55% |
Q1 2023 | $67,378,610 | $115,400,500 | ($48,021,890) | -71% |
Q2 2023 | $99,875,240 | $127,879,820 | ($28,004,580) | -28% |
Q3 2023 | $97,112,000 | $146,951,000 | ($49,839,000) | -51% |
Admittedly it takes some time for an airline to establish itself, and it’s expected that an airline will lose money for some amount of time after launch. That’s one of the reasons the airline raised over $300 million in capital to launch operations. By my math, the airline had an operational loss of around $250 million over the course of seven quarters, which is a lot. That means the carrier has burned through nearly all of its startup capital in those quarters alone (never mind that much of the capital was presumably used to actually launch operations).
Beyond that, the margins here are just beyond awful. Admittedly they decreased a bit over time (as a percentage) as the airline ramped up operations, but the numbers here are horrendous. To lose nearly $50 million on under $100 million in revenue around two years after launching operations is abysmal.
How much longer can the airline sustain losses like this? Never mind that Q4 probably won’t look any better, and Q1 is historically a weak quarter for leisure domestic travel demand.
Why has Breeze Airways been struggling so much?
As a passenger, I love the idea of Breeze Airways, as it’s an airline with a fairly impressive product, much better than you’ll find on other ultra low cost carriers. Before the airline launched, Neeleman claimed that the company could break even with a fairly low load factor, all while parking planes for several days per week, thanks to its amazing cost structure.
So, what went wrong, causing the airline to be losing massive amounts of money? After all, the airline is flying efficient planes. Keep in mind that the DOT publishes data about demand between city pairs, so when airlines like Breeze decide which point-to-point routes to operate, they use that data to make decisions.
How can Breeze get stuff so wrong? The way I view it, there are some major issues:
- Breeze’s labor costs have been way higher than expected; at the time that Breeze prepared to launch, there was a pilot surplus rather than a pilot shortage, so pilot pay has increased considerably
- Breeze has been all over the place in terms of its network, and has added and canceled routes at a pace I’ve never seen before from any airline; while it’s good to be flexible, this has caused a lot of passengers to lose faith in the airline, after a route was canceled with no alternatives
- Breeze’s network is just too fragmented, to the point that few people can really be loyal to the airline, or fly with the airline repeatedly; it’s not like Sprit, which has a huge presence in markets like Baltimore, Fort Lauderdale, etc.
- While there’s clearly demand in the markets in which Breeze is flying, I think route planners underestimated how challenging it is to gain market share as an unknown player in a market; some people probably prefer to connect on an airline they know, vs. one they haven’t heard of
- To save on costs, Breeze flights aren’t bookable through online travel agencies, which is a major issue for an airline without much name recognition
- Breeze has done very little to actually market itself, so unless you happen to be searching through Google Flights (which shows Breeze flights, while online travel agencies don’t), you’d never otherwise come across this airline
- Breeze’s business model is based loosely on Allegiant’s business model, with operating point-to-point routes in underserved markets; what’s different is that Allegiant has mostly found success serving smaller airports in larger metropolitan areas, while Breeze primarily flies to larger airports
- I think Breeze has the same issue as some other airlines that don’t perform so well financially, where the carrier is trying to offer a slightly better product than the competition, but can’t get a revenue premium for it; for example, Breeze has first class-style seats, though it doesn’t seem like that’s going all that well
- While the A220 has amazing economics in terms of operating costs, the planes are still expensive, compared to acquiring used aircraft
The interesting thing is that Breeze has a pretty robust sports charter business, and many of the carrier’s planes are being charted out to sports teams. That’s unlikely to offer the airline huge margins, but you’d think that would be limiting losses. The fact that the airline is losing so much money in spite of those arrangements shows you just how much Breeze is struggling with its scheduled passenger operations business.
The carrier constantly launching and then canceling routes, combined with the airline now having racked up around $250 million in operational losses, isn’t a good sign. If the airline is going to survive, it presumably needs more capital ASAP. Unless the carrier drastically changes its business model, I don’t see any way in which the airline will survive. To me, at this point the bigger question is which airline will end up taking over Breeze’s Airbus A220s.
Bottom line
While it’s anyone’s guess how things play out, Breeze Airways seems to be struggling. Between Q1 2022 and Q3 2023, the airline had an operational loss of roughly $250 million, on roughly $400 million in revenue. It takes airlines time to become profitable, though these numbers look bleak to me, with an average negative operating margin of -60%.
As a point of comparison, Avelo Airlines launched around the same time, and is doing much better financially.
What do you make of Breeze’s financials, and the carrier’s prospects of becoming profitable?
Nice to know that you’re biased. Not one article on Breeze’s profitability in March.
@ JFC -- Other than the article I wrote about how Breeze was profitable in March?
https://onemileatatime.com/news/breeze-airways-profitable/
Breeze continues to be unprofitable with an airplane that is a white Elephant. David Neeleman has run his course. He has a poor history now and Breeze will be his last hurrah. Breeze has been an embarrsement.
This airline cannot make up its mind about a business plan. David Neeleman has made a mess of this airline and has lost his leadership capabilities. The Allegiant management team has cut so many corners the airline is unsafe. It’s become a desperate airline.
Their chat customer service model is awful. I think who wrote this article forgot to mention that. It’s a major issue for this airlines failure.
I have yet to fly them due to routes changing constantly. Who wants to be stuck in an airport 6 hours to connect! I get excited to see a new route but they have weird times. Definitely not for the business traveler!!
No hub
No definite routes!
1 type of plane
One guy I knew was stopped by a gate agent because the wheels on his bag were one inch over the size Limit. They wanted 35 extra.
I think they are doing ok.
There's plenty that will fail before Breeze.
And although it's not a straight line, the trend is up.
This is a silly story from someone who knows nothing about economics.
I personally think that Breeze would be better to pick a few cities (CHS could be one) and establish small focus cities/hubs in those, and, the big part, offer connections through those cities!!!. Frontier does this to some extent, but with a lesser product. (They are largely point to point and serve smaller cities, but they do over some connections through place like DEN and MCO).
I get the idea of being all point...
I personally think that Breeze would be better to pick a few cities (CHS could be one) and establish small focus cities/hubs in those, and, the big part, offer connections through those cities!!!. Frontier does this to some extent, but with a lesser product. (They are largely point to point and serve smaller cities, but they do over some connections through place like DEN and MCO).
I get the idea of being all point to point, but it is very hard to build brand loyalty that way, especially with the frequent changes in routes and no interline agreements.
This article is a load of rubbish!
I know people who work at Breeze, and the outlook is extremely positive.
All new airlines experience teething problems and it takes several years to turn a profit.
The person writing this article must have a negative agenda without any solid backing. I'm sure Breeze will continue to grow. It's fantastic to see those smaller hubs being offered such great destinations to travel to!
Breeze is getting ready (May 29) to take on JetBlue, Southwest and Frontier on the Hartford (BDL) to Orlando route. Seems crazy to me.
I just don't understand how they could enter a new and small market, never advertise, but then expect travelers to just magically know that they were an available option.
Without knowing how much of those expenses are actually non-cash expenses (depreciation, amortization, stock-based compensation, etc.), it's hard to really judge the business performance.
I think the combination of low frequencies, lousy visibility, and heavy route turnover are a real killer. They don't seem to even bother with daily service, and when you *ahem* breeze in and out of markets before anyone knows you were there, I don't know how you can expect to get established anywhere...
I guess that "breeze" was just heavy on the methane?
IT WILL BE GONE SOMETIME IN 2024.
THE INDUSTRY IS BRUTAL. GREAT PAINT SCHEME THOUGH.
The Neeleman name tricked me into thinking they knew what they were doing when launching Breeze. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a large number of A220s get freed up within a year.
I hope they can turn it around but the number of sales they have been running had me concerned.
I've flown with them probably 15-20 times between my home in CHS and family in TPA. The night flight is consistently late but I haven't been stranded (yet). Luckily this is one of their busier routes and usually has two flights a day.
Every single Breeze flight I've taken has either had its time changed by a few hours after I've booked it, or is just delayed the day before/day of, often by hours as well.
Not only is Breeze a financial mess, it’s an unsafe operation. They are cutting where safety matters. Those A220s breakdown a lot and Breeze recently suffered an engine failure. DN is not a good person and consistently lies to his employees and passengers. The turnover is quite high as the airline is failing.
How does an engine failure make an airline unsafe? It happens every day for airlines around the world... The pilots are trained to prevent anything bad from coming out of it.
Go read about P&W engine failure and lack of spare parts. Not a pretty picture!
P&W Engine has problems with heat and humidity! Very scary plane but the nice thing about the A220 is u can moon the ground crew if desired!
There is an airline in Europe called 'Canary Fly' which also seems to have defied financial gravity. Their financial statements are very difficult to find but, last time I looked (2019?), the airline had been consistently bleeding cash for five years.
In brief, it's a poor man's Binter Canarias, with lower frequencies, less routes and older aircraft!
Recently flew on them for first time and found it totally reasonable. Certainly on par with any other low cost product and flights were mostly full. Living in a focus city helps as I have more options on times/dates/locations but the frequency needs to be more logical to some destinations. Another option might be to stop taking so many new aircraft — I know they have commitments but I am sure they could find someone to take the slots.
Those figures aren't EBITDA. So meaningless.
True…. Was told once…. Revenue is for vanity, profit is for sanity, but cash flow is reality! EBITDA is a proxy for cash flow and much more informative.
The thing that blows my mind about Breeze, on top of the other issues that others have already mentioned, is that you can't book an itinerary with a connection. One-stop (same plane), yes, but connection? No.
Also, having no phone number kinda freaks me out. Support is by texting only. They got back to me pretty quickly recently, but once they took...wait for it...twelve hours!
The web site and app do not work when connected...
The thing that blows my mind about Breeze, on top of the other issues that others have already mentioned, is that you can't book an itinerary with a connection. One-stop (same plane), yes, but connection? No.
Also, having no phone number kinda freaks me out. Support is by texting only. They got back to me pretty quickly recently, but once they took...wait for it...twelve hours!
The web site and app do not work when connected to a commercial VPN service. This is beyond annoying.
At LAX, you check in at Terminal 1, and then take an airside bus to Bradley west gates. I asked if you could just go straight to Bradley if you're checked in and carry-on only, and they said (via text, natch) that sure, you can try, but no guarantees TSA will let you in, so they recommend Terminal 1. This seems silly to me -- the Centurion lounge is in Bradley, for one. On the other hand, an airside bus from T1 is probably faster than the hell that is getting to the back of the horseshoe at LAX.
The supposedly tech-first approach is pure spin -- the website and app are functional, but that is all you can say about them. You can't change your seat within 24 hours of flying except at the gate! Unless you upgrade your cabin.
One thing I do love: If you cancel on Breeze, the credit remains in the account of the person who booked the ticket -- the ticketed passenger name doesn't matter. That ticket just goes away. I know this because I booked LAS-RSW (nice route!) for my dad and his wife, and then they couldn't go. But I've been trying to burn that credit and have been literally unable to because their routes are so infrequent and random. I thought I could use LAX-HPN but, oops! They killed that one.
Finally my nephew was able to use it for LAX-PIT to visit his gf while school is out. After reading this article, rather than save the credit for another trip, I just put him in the first class seats for the return. The credit might not be worth a whole lot in the near future. They just killed that route, too, days after he returns!
Anyway, I do see their planes at airports, and I like the whole A220 thing, but, sheesh, twice weekly flights without possibility of connections and without being listed on OTA sites doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me.
Breeze isn’t big enough yet to offer connections. Also it kind of goes against their business model of offering direct or non stop routes. But I’m sure if they get big enough, it will come.
Some of the most profitable airlines in the world forego connections - Ryanair, Allegiant, Wizz. The reason is left as an exercise for the reader.
Breeze should be hitting up the DoD to offer subsidized travel for Naval personnel to Norfolk. Their routes from ORF are extensive enough to supplement the "CNV" flights that bring sailors to their ships from all corners of the country, and it'd be less wear and tear on some pretty worn out 737s.
I was in Breeze's 1st flight attendant class that inaugurated the airline. We were promised they would pay for your college degree. Oops! They forgot about out-of-state tuition. Did they think all their applicants would be from Utah? $1,200 a month salary and you had to pay the difference in the cost of tuition - no thanks. Nothing made sense then and nothing makes sense now.
The way they tried to exploit labor during Covid is really pathetic.
What's fascinating is that on one hand, DN was betting on massive pent-up demand & travel rebound. On another hand, he was betting on suppressed wages from a glutenous supply of flight crew.
Anybody with a basic understanding of economics could've bet on Jet-A going up in price when things returned to normal as well.
Not sure how he thought that would pencil...
The way they tried to exploit labor during Covid is really pathetic.
What's fascinating is that on one hand, DN was betting on massive pent-up demand & travel rebound. On another hand, he was betting on suppressed wages from a glutenous supply of flight crew.
Anybody with a basic understanding of economics could've bet on Jet-A going up in price when things returned to normal as well.
Not sure how he thought that would pencil out, but Breeze is paying dearly for that mistake.
I live near MSY which is a Breeze focus city. I've experienced what many have already alluded to in this string:
- When Breeze arrived, some publicity. Since then, only an occasional blurb in the local newspaper web page about a new route. Other than that, not a word. Most who live in the metro area have "no idea" it exists.
- My biggest beef are routes that come and go in a...
I live near MSY which is a Breeze focus city. I've experienced what many have already alluded to in this string:
- When Breeze arrived, some publicity. Since then, only an occasional blurb in the local newspaper web page about a new route. Other than that, not a word. Most who live in the metro area have "no idea" it exists.
- My biggest beef are routes that come and go in a flash!!! Got a blurb about PBI which would be a great substitute for MIA & FLL. Before I could make arrangements, their calendar indicate only 2x or 3x frequency. Also, the route would end in less than 2 months which would not work. Same thing happen with LAX. It would terminate just as quickly as it started.
- Other than the two locations mentioned about, there is no place else that would serve my needs. Way too fragmented!! As if using some flawed formula that makes sense to the marketing department, but leaves out local area preferences in the equation.
Based on the above, not worth the headache!!
As for the A220s, I'm sure DL, B6, or AC have gotten courtesy calls from the leasing agency trying to gauge interest. Excellent opportunity on late model, slightly used airframes at a reasonable leasing rate. The issue is Breeze could file Chapter 11 which would tie up equipment, airframes, creditors, and lawyers in a protracted reorganization if the bleeding continues.
I'm sure DL, B6, or AC have gotten courtesy calls from the leasing agency trying to gauge interest.
^This. It'd almost be dereliction if they weren't doing so.
Its truly a shame and I would love to fly Breeze. I fly out of Tampa, a focus city, but they simply do not fly anywhere I wish to travel to. Yes, I am loyal to Delta...but if a carrier doesn't go where I go...daily...need I say more.
I do hope they succeed, but I am not confident.
I can only speak for the Breeze (MX) flights that I've flown in & out of CAK. The roundtrip I took December 2022 CAK/PBI was completely full going to PBI & had 5 empty seats returning to CAK. We went CAK/LAS in February 2023 & all 36 Nicest/FC seats were full both ways & quite a few other passengers boarded too. In November 2023, flew CAK/MCO with 8 of 12 Nicest seats full & 118...
I can only speak for the Breeze (MX) flights that I've flown in & out of CAK. The roundtrip I took December 2022 CAK/PBI was completely full going to PBI & had 5 empty seats returning to CAK. We went CAK/LAS in February 2023 & all 36 Nicest/FC seats were full both ways & quite a few other passengers boarded too. In November 2023, flew CAK/MCO with 8 of 12 Nicest seats full & 118 in economy. The return was PBI/CAK & 111 were on board (118 passenger jet). The crews were great on all & only one was about 45 minutes late leaving, with the others either on time & a few minutes early leaving. I hope they get things turned around because we like flying them even though the less the daily service can be inconvenient.
Be on the lookout for some cut-rate, nearly new A220s, coming soon.
As a Mormon why didn't he choose to start out as something like 'Salt Lake City's Budget Carrier'? Why did he instantly have to try everything and accomplish nothing with these garbage 2x weekly flight schedules?
What does being Mormon have to do with it? Yes, I know the church is based there, but really?
SLC is already a heavy Delta hub city… I don’t see any “Budget” airline like Moxie succeeding there.
Allegiant has the benefit of year round demand at LAS - can’t get that at SLC.
Their pilot costs are significantly more than they planned initially I'm sure. I still don't know how they're getting captain qualified pilots without offering significant signing bonuses like many of the regionals are doing.
Wish Breeze the very best in 2024 and hopefully see them in TOL. Keep up the good work and see the reward
I've said from day one that "Delta's already got future routes in mind for those Breeze A220s!"
NOTHING about this airline has ever made sense, from the start:
I'm not sure how anyone signed off on a model of flying small markets, twice weekly, while not advertising worth a damn...
...pretty hard to fill a plane (much less to decent yield) when the public doesn't know that you're in the market!
I've literally told...
I've said from day one that "Delta's already got future routes in mind for those Breeze A220s!"
NOTHING about this airline has ever made sense, from the start:
I'm not sure how anyone signed off on a model of flying small markets, twice weekly, while not advertising worth a damn...
...pretty hard to fill a plane (much less to decent yield) when the public doesn't know that you're in the market!
I've literally told people about Breeze, on a route that they were looking to book-- only for them to come back and tell me "We didn't see that airline as an option, are you sure they fly here?" (because they only looked on set days, and wouldn't have known to check for the 2-3 days/wk that MX flies.
If that's happening to people who are DIRECTLY TOLD about Breeze, then HTF can people who only casually fly and have seen no advertisement, be expected to know?
I live between PVD and BOS. I fly to PIT frequently. Because Breeze does not fly PVD/PIT every day, I rarely can do a round trip with Breeze. The only other two nonstop flights between this area and PIT are out of BOS (DL and B6). So, I would have to fly out of one airport and back to the other.
Breeze sees itself as a disrupter in the sense JetBlue was in the late 90s and early 2000s. But the industry has drastically changed and those airlines catering towards the very price sensitive end of the market are struggling. Breeze doesn't bring anything new to the market that can't be found with legacies or ULCCs.
I flew Breeze about a half dozen times in 2023 and have a couple reservation in 2024 (though not on trips that I absolutely need to go on... if they cancel, no big deal). I've not been on very many full flights. Every single plane has been filthy though in the cabin. I've had a few schedule changes make it impossible to continue with them.... (like changing what day of week they operate a route......
I flew Breeze about a half dozen times in 2023 and have a couple reservation in 2024 (though not on trips that I absolutely need to go on... if they cancel, no big deal). I've not been on very many full flights. Every single plane has been filthy though in the cabin. I've had a few schedule changes make it impossible to continue with them.... (like changing what day of week they operate a route... four weeks before travel... and it's over New Years weekend). Round trip never seems to work. I've spoken with a lot of people who have flown Breeze or considered them. The irregular schedule, zero brand recognition, and transient nature all work against them. When something goes wrong, it really goes wrong. The airport agents are not trained on rebooking. You go on the app. Even the airport ticket sales carrier fee loophole they use (like every other ULCC) is silly... when the airport has "ticket sales" all they do is have somebody stand at the counter with a QR code to scan. It takes you to a Google forms and you fill out your info. Somebody in a call center books it and tells the counter agent when to swipe your credit card.
Avelo managed to break even. Their route network and coming/going from markets may sometimes seem similar, but they stick to a few bases where they actually do market and do have some recognition (or rather, they get the airport to do it for them). I like Avelo's chances more.
It does not make sense for them to fly out of San Bernadino when Ontario is a 15 minute drive away if that.
Except that SBD offered them incentives (both for launch, and independently per-route) that they wouldn't have gotten at ONT, despite having similar costs.
I've used both ONT and SBD multiple times in the past year (alongside LAX and BUR on Southwest) on Frontier and Breeze to fly between the LA basin and SFO. Frontier who already has the same low-base pricing model already has SFO, LAS and PHX out of ONT which are the destinations Breeze has chosen to do out of SBD (though using aircraft based in PVU or BDL as part of a tag-on, technically offering...
I've used both ONT and SBD multiple times in the past year (alongside LAX and BUR on Southwest) on Frontier and Breeze to fly between the LA basin and SFO. Frontier who already has the same low-base pricing model already has SFO, LAS and PHX out of ONT which are the destinations Breeze has chosen to do out of SBD (though using aircraft based in PVU or BDL as part of a tag-on, technically offering those destinations as well), so they would be competing which was something they wanted to avoid, at least at first. E190/195s and A220s also wouldn't be able to compete with Frontier's Airbuses in volume as it is either, not with the fares I've personally paid to fly either them going fully no-frills.
first, it is important to note that this is the same data that I have repeatedly cited regarding the profitability of US airlines by global region and to which many people object as they argue that airlines can record costs and revenues differently without realizing that what you take out of one bucket has to go somewhere else.
second, Breeze did not expect labor costs to go up as much as they have and...
first, it is important to note that this is the same data that I have repeatedly cited regarding the profitability of US airlines by global region and to which many people object as they argue that airlines can record costs and revenues differently without realizing that what you take out of one bucket has to go somewhere else.
second, Breeze did not expect labor costs to go up as much as they have and that is their biggest hindrance. The strength of global travel is helping the big 3 the most and hurting each successive level of air carrier going "down" in the food chain. ultra low cost carrier upstarts are by far the most vulnerable.
third, there are larger barriers to entry to new carriers than ever which also makes it harder to attract new capital. Neeleman has been a master at finding people that will put money into his new airlines but Breeze might be the first to fail. will be very interesting to watch.
Tim - Breeze does not have a FF program, international routes, etc. All things that allow others to record expenses, etc. in different places. The numbers Ben cites are total revenue and expenses - numbers that no one disputes with you for DL, AA, UA, etc. (not that I recall). So why lead with:
“first, it is important to note that this is the same data that I have repeatedly cited regarding the profitability of...
Tim - Breeze does not have a FF program, international routes, etc. All things that allow others to record expenses, etc. in different places. The numbers Ben cites are total revenue and expenses - numbers that no one disputes with you for DL, AA, UA, etc. (not that I recall). So why lead with:
“first, it is important to note that this is the same data that I have repeatedly cited regarding the profitability of US airlines by global region and to which many people object as they argue that airlines can record costs and revenues differently without realizing that what you take out of one bucket has to go somewhere else.”
You are smart enough (or should be) to know that it’s not the same data that people argue about with you. But keep on telling yourself that.
yes, it is the same data and it does roll up to to SEC filed financials for publicly traded companies.
People don't want to believe the data because of how they think the numbers are divided but this is the data the airlines themselves file; the DOT just releases it
And for airlines that operate in multiple global regions -domestic is one of them - if you increase profits in one region, profits...
yes, it is the same data and it does roll up to to SEC filed financials for publicly traded companies.
People don't want to believe the data because of how they think the numbers are divided but this is the data the airlines themselves file; the DOT just releases it
And for airlines that operate in multiple global regions -domestic is one of them - if you increase profits in one region, profits in another region have to be reduced (usually it is the argument between international and domestic route systems).
The reason that disclaimer is important is because the data has been validated - for those that want to do the work - against SEC data for publicly traded companies.
There is no reason to think that Breeze is allowed to use a different procedure.
If the numbers show that Breeze is sucking wind, then it is also valid to believe that the global carriers are performing as some like me note in the regions where the data says so.
The DOT is doing a better job of releasing airline financial data on-time than they are the Air Travel Consumer Report which contains on-time, cancellations, baggage handling, oversales and complaint data. The complaint data is 6 months behind schedule
and I get your resistance to wanting to use the data for the big 3's global profitability since it shows AA as losing money flying the Atlantic and Pacific with their Latin system generating a profit that slightly offsets their transatlantic and transpacific losses.
Delta and United both have over $1 billion in profits on their international systems for the first 3 quarters but Delta's international network is generating higher profits. Although United has...
and I get your resistance to wanting to use the data for the big 3's global profitability since it shows AA as losing money flying the Atlantic and Pacific with their Latin system generating a profit that slightly offsets their transatlantic and transpacific losses.
Delta and United both have over $1 billion in profits on their international systems for the first 3 quarters but Delta's international network is generating higher profits. Although United has higher profits across the Pacific and to Latin America, Delta's margin in both regions is higher and its transatlantic profit is so much larger than United's that it puts Delta's total global profits higher than United's.
Domestically, Delta made twice as much as United and American's domestic system is more profitable than United's.
Tim - I have no dog in the fight. No resistance here. As I wrote last week, I’ve sat in on and ran board meetings, and I think you are wrong about how granular Delta’s board (and others) get in discussions. As I wrote, I’m disputing overall numbers - but again, I have experience in this, and numbers reported to DOT by region can be manipulated - not necessarily are, but can be. Overall numbers...
Tim - I have no dog in the fight. No resistance here. As I wrote last week, I’ve sat in on and ran board meetings, and I think you are wrong about how granular Delta’s board (and others) get in discussions. As I wrote, I’m disputing overall numbers - but again, I have experience in this, and numbers reported to DOT by region can be manipulated - not necessarily are, but can be. Overall numbers reported in financials - less so. I don’t disagree that Delta makes more than AA - never have. But I think you are flat out wrong with your black and white proclamations. Like in this post about Breeze, where you make an assertion that because Breeze is hemorrhaging money that we need to believe your black and white assertions about Delta, etc. But again, whatever. It’s pointless arguing with you. Even a civil one - which is why trolls pick on you. You can never admit that others may / could be correct. I have board room / financial experience and I know there is grey.
feel free to let us know how YOU think the numbers should read. All of them.
We get it.
You don't like the results and so cherrypick what you like and dislike.
Yes, there is variability in how some data is reported by global region - but then the total has to come up to be the same.
The numbers the DOT reports by global region are very much aligned with...
feel free to let us know how YOU think the numbers should read. All of them.
We get it.
You don't like the results and so cherrypick what you like and dislike.
Yes, there is variability in how some data is reported by global region - but then the total has to come up to be the same.
The numbers the DOT reports by global region are very much aligned with what the airlines report in total to the SEC. If the DOT numbers aren't correct, then what is subtracted from one entity has to be added to another.
As hard as it is for you to admit, Delta is the most profitable airline both domestically and internationally even though United has a larger international route system.
American and Delta outperform United domestically and United's domestic profits aren't that much higher than Southwest's even though WN has had a really tough 2023.
all of those "breakddowns" are in line with bottom line SEC results.
They don't have a frequent flyer per say, but they have the breezepoints program which is equivalent to breeze cash, so the more you fly, the more breeze points you get. So that statement is not true.
Tim
No one has ever said the absolute numbers are wrong but rather that you don’t understand how revenue accounting works and make claims without any knowledge
Of course delta is the most profitable airline. Your comprehension of where and how others disagree with you is alarmingly low.
I get it completely, Max.
You and others want to believe that either costs or revenues can be just added to one region without being subtracted from another.
There are industry standard revenue allocation methodologies and, as much as you want to believe otherwise, AA, DL and UA all use them. They can't allocate the amount of revenue for a SAN-SFO segment differently for UA online connections than if to a JV partner...
I get it completely, Max.
You and others want to believe that either costs or revenues can be just added to one region without being subtracted from another.
There are industry standard revenue allocation methodologies and, as much as you want to believe otherwise, AA, DL and UA all use them. They can't allocate the amount of revenue for a SAN-SFO segment differently for UA online connections than if to a JV partner or to an offline partner. They can negotiate different rates as part of agreements but they can't just "move" revenue between segments.
It is possible to allocate costs differently - but there are still accounting standards. All 3 use them.
And you still can't or won't change profits between regions; you simply can't say " the transatlantic region is really $50 million" more profitable than these numbers unless you take $50 million away from domestic.
Again, UA's domestic profits are lower than AA and DL and only marginally higher than Southwest, even in WN's bad 2023.
As much as it pains you to admit it, United simply does not run the most profitable INTERNATIONAL network - which is exactly what they claim is their forte.
They have a LARGE international network but other airlines, specifically Delta, run a more profitable international network and also make more money in every global region burning less jet fuel and using fewer planes in the process.
American, Delta AND Southwest, under similar conditions - which we saw pre-covid and we will see in the 2nd half of 2024 and beyond - run more profitable domestic operations than United.
Just as I said to guy above, just tell us ALL of the financials as you think they should be rather than tell me I don't understand.
I not only understand the financials but that you want desperately not to believe the truth when it is inconvenient as it is.
In this case, the same data that shows that Breeze is doing very badly also shows that United's international network is not as profitable as Delta's.
The rate at which they're burning cash is hard to judge out of context. A more insightful analysis would compare their performance to other new airline launches. (preferably in North America in the last 10-15 years.)
Also, any statements form the company about anticipated cash-flow would be helpful. For all we know they could be performing above expectations.
Not a ton of recent launches with public financials - but GlobalX (one of their main charter competitors) got to breakeven within a year of flying with 8 leased A320's and like <$25M in funding at the time - launched around the same time as well.
Many have mentioned their infrequent schedules, but more of a deterrent to me is their “habit” of frequently deleting routes altogether.
The only way I’d book them is if I was flying last minute, so I’d be sure they’d actually keep the schedule.
I just looked, they actually have some interesting routes where I think there would be good demand. However the point many commentators make on frequency is true - it is hard to choose an airline with only a couple of flights a week to a destination. You have to book another airline to get back, cancellations wreak havoc, etc. Just hard to depend on.
I don't agree with the lack of advertising comment. Being Hartford based you see TV ads and social media ads constantly. The social media may be algorith based since I interact with a lot of travel content.
I wouldn't expect them to advertise much in cities they don't serve.
This will definitely depend on the destination, but as I understand it, some places like Hartford and Providence have special marketing incentives that they take advantage of. Being SFO-based where we get 2-3 flights on most days, I can say I've never seen their ads outside of maybe Instagram, but I can tell you the multitude of airlines that aren't Breeze whose ads I've seen between the being in the airport itself, public transit stops,...
This will definitely depend on the destination, but as I understand it, some places like Hartford and Providence have special marketing incentives that they take advantage of. Being SFO-based where we get 2-3 flights on most days, I can say I've never seen their ads outside of maybe Instagram, but I can tell you the multitude of airlines that aren't Breeze whose ads I've seen between the being in the airport itself, public transit stops, YouTube/web ads, social media, and so on.
Right now most breeze passengers are not originating out of SFO, they’re coming from breeze focus cities. Breeze also is on the travel sites too if you’re looking for specific routes, so at least there’s that too.
If you mean "bases", the only ones connected to SFO are Provo and Charleston, but having actually taken the flight all the way to Charleston via Richmond both ways, the vast majority of people seated on the plane each time were getting on/off at Richmond, and I would assume that's similar with Cincinnati and Louisville. Breeze is not the only LCC or airline in its market segment serving SFO, but out of all of these...
If you mean "bases", the only ones connected to SFO are Provo and Charleston, but having actually taken the flight all the way to Charleston via Richmond both ways, the vast majority of people seated on the plane each time were getting on/off at Richmond, and I would assume that's similar with Cincinnati and Louisville. Breeze is not the only LCC or airline in its market segment serving SFO, but out of all of these airlines (domestic or international) that could just as easily be marketing SFO for inbound traffic, Breeze is the only one that doesn't widely advertise here, and seemingly the only one struggling to achieve high load factors.
In the event they do fail, is there any routes in their network that might make sense for say an avelo to pickup?
Avelo seems to be doing a little better financially(not great but but better)
Breeze airways needs more passengers, employees and more money to plan ahead of other airlines
I wish for Reno Tahoe international airport to place on the breeze airways destination list.
Would be nice if Breeze decides to breeze into Atlanta from some of those smaller markets.
Atlanta based Delta is the only airline flying to Atlanta from Breeze' Hartford base (BDL) 4 to 5 times a day with $250 one way fares. Frontier tried going against Delta on this route (4x per week) earlier this year with cheaper fares but gave up back in the spring. I guess Delta won by pushing out a bunch high priced empty planes with convenient times.
Delta probably couldn't care less either way if Breeze entered the market, especially somewhere like BDL. If Breeze flew it 2-3 times a week, they may barely elicit a competitive response, and at that targeted at the same times of day/days of week. If Breeze flew it once a day, which they have a handful of markets where that is the case, Delta probably would flex price a little more or adjust some frequencies. But...
Delta probably couldn't care less either way if Breeze entered the market, especially somewhere like BDL. If Breeze flew it 2-3 times a week, they may barely elicit a competitive response, and at that targeted at the same times of day/days of week. If Breeze flew it once a day, which they have a handful of markets where that is the case, Delta probably would flex price a little more or adjust some frequencies. But in a market like that, with Delta being such a huge incumbent and having the force of a mega hub behind it, DL would certainly continue to carry more passengers at a higher average fare. As an example, even Southwest couldn't make ATL-SJU work when they pared it to once daily and gutted the AirTran connecting traffic. Delta carried more local passengers at a higher fare than Southwest.
Breeze in a place like ATL where gate resources are thin and they would operate a highly variable schedule, with frequent changes to times and days, would have difficulty finding real estate. In ATL's lease there does exist preference for established flights, on the IATA seasonal pattern, taking priority in common use scheduling, or using another airline's preferential use gate, if the time doesn't change significantly (it used to be a 60 minute window in the old lease, aside from the generally accepted summer/winter changeovers).
Similar issue - was going to book on Breeze earlier this year but decided not to since there was no guarantee they wouldn't cancel the route before we had to fly. Turns out that was the right decision since they cancelled the route a couple weeks before we would've flown out.
Flown them a few times and yes it's kind of a "B6 Light" product. Kind of how I think the post B6/NK will look whenever they pull that together.
I concur that their advertising & PR awareness is awful. I think the logic was to rely on word of mouth and obviously that's not playing out. Their second handicap is a gross underinvestment in training for ground staff.
Shortly after their startup one...
Flown them a few times and yes it's kind of a "B6 Light" product. Kind of how I think the post B6/NK will look whenever they pull that together.
I concur that their advertising & PR awareness is awful. I think the logic was to rely on word of mouth and obviously that's not playing out. Their second handicap is a gross underinvestment in training for ground staff.
Shortly after their startup one of my first trips on them was delayed by an inbound held up by weather. Ok...it happens. The ground had zero access to information from their dispatch people. I showed them how you can track the tail number on FlightAware and it was like a huge revelation. Granted this is a couple of weeks after startup but that's pretty basic stuff.
As a CHS based flyer, I flew Breeze often in 2022 and not at all in 2023. Breeze's constantly changing route network and schedule made Breeze flights less convenient for me than other options. Plus, when there would be a scheduled flight on a route and at a time that is convenient, the flight would be nearly full and the price quite high. Throughout 2023, Breeze has offered a lot of attractive looking sales, but...
As a CHS based flyer, I flew Breeze often in 2022 and not at all in 2023. Breeze's constantly changing route network and schedule made Breeze flights less convenient for me than other options. Plus, when there would be a scheduled flight on a route and at a time that is convenient, the flight would be nearly full and the price quite high. Throughout 2023, Breeze has offered a lot of attractive looking sales, but whenever I would look to book something during the sale, the flights that I would be interested in where not a good enough deal. I hope that things improve in 2024 as not just do I generally like flying Breeze, having them in the market makes everyone's prices more competitive.
We flew Breeze a month ago Phoenix to Charleston in economy and it was a great experience. Similar to Jason, the only downside is they operate these flights twice a week, so flying back had to connect on AA instead of direct on Breeze. I hope they turn it around, as bleak as it looks.
All is can say is this. My parents live in Louisville and we have a lot of family in San Francisco, so they love Breeze for the simple fact that it flies nonstop from Louisville to SFO. No other airline does it. And without fail every time they buy the "Nicest"/ first class seat. That said, the airline only flies twice a week, so they normally will fly Breeze in one direction and another airline...
All is can say is this. My parents live in Louisville and we have a lot of family in San Francisco, so they love Breeze for the simple fact that it flies nonstop from Louisville to SFO. No other airline does it. And without fail every time they buy the "Nicest"/ first class seat. That said, the airline only flies twice a week, so they normally will fly Breeze in one direction and another airline with a stop in another direction due to lack of a daily flight. Still, they love it!
Not surprising. They won’t be around much longer. The routes they have chosen are a joke.
EXACTLY!!!!! PVD-LAX-PVD??? Come on!!!