BermudAir’s Huge, Random Expansion: Hello St. Petersburg To Belize City!

You know, I’ve gotta say, this might just be the strangest expansion we’ve ever seen from a real airline (not to be confused with fake airlines). I’m not sure if they’re just grasping at straws because other markets aren’t working, or what.

BermudAir will fly to Anguilla, Belize, Guatemala, Turks & Caicos

For a little bit of background, in mid-2023 we saw the launch of BermudAir, a quirky niche airline with the goal of operating Embraer jets between Bermuda (BDA) and the United States and Canada. Initially the airline was going to operate all-business class planes, but it scrapped (“delayed”) that concept before launch, instead introducing a two-cabin concept (though business class just has blocked adjacent seats and better service).

As I said from the beginning, the whole thing struck me as an odd venture, essentially trying to serve Bermuda year-round profitably, while going up against the major carriers that serve the airport.

To my surprise, the airline is still in business nearly three years after launch, though it hasn’t necessarily been that smooth. As is pretty common for an airlines startup, the first years have been rocky, with several routes being cut after launch. For that matter, the airline faced a lawsuit over millions in unpaid airport fees at its hub, which isn’t exactly a great sign.

But worry not, BermudAir has a new strategy… which is to fly between the United States and four places that aren’t Bermuda! In fairness, the airline had already launched seasonal Anguilla flights, but this is being taken to the next level:

With these latest updates:

• BermudAir will fly to Providenciales, Turks & Caicos (PLS), from Baltimore (BWI), Boston (BOS), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), Newark (EWR), Raleigh Durham (RDU), and St. Petersburg (PIE)
• BermudAir will fly to Belize City, Belize (BZE), from Boston (BOS), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), Orlando Sanford (SFB), Raleigh Durham (RDU), and St. Petersburg (PIE)
• BermudAir will fly to Guatemala City, Guatemala (GUA) from Boston (BOS)
• BermudAir will fly to Anguilla (AUA) from St. Petersburg (PIE), with returning seasonal service from Boston (BOS), and expanded service from Baltimore (BWI) and Newark (EWR)
• BermudAir will fly to Bermuda (BDA) from Fort Lauderdale (FLL), which actually represents a route resumption, as this was one of the carrier’s first three routes, before being cut

Some of these routes are actually “direct” routes, meaning they have an intermediate stop. For example, it appears the Guatemala City route will operate via Belize City.

Here’s how BermudAir CEO Adam Scott describes this:

“We’re thrilled to continue expanding our Caribbean network as the premium leisure carrier from North America. Our customers are ranking us with industry-leading satisfaction scores. Together with Bermuda, we now connect U.S. travelers to some of the region’s most exceptional and sought-after island destinations.”

As a reminder, Bermuda, Anguilla, and Turks & Caicos, are all British Overseas Territories, while Belize is a former British Overseas Territory. The airline emphasizes how service to Belize will be operated under fifth freedom operations, with flights technically originating in Bermuda and Turks & Caicos, so that the service is legal.

Interestingly, these are all winter seasonal flights, so I guess the idea is that the airline will focus on Bermuda in the summer (even though that’s seemingly not proving a huge success either), and then focusing more on other markets in winter.

Just to put these frequencies into perspective, out of Fort Lauderdale, BermudAir will operate one weekly flight to Fort Lauderdale, and three weekly flights to Belize and Turks & Caicos. *scratches head*

BermudAir’s expansion makes no sense at all to me

Look, I love to see startup airlines succeed, but the problem is that all too often, their business models don’t make sense. I mean, let’s look at how we got to this point:

• First BermudAir was going to be an all-business class airline, and then it backtracked at the last minute
• Then BermudAir was going to be all about Bermuda flying (I mean, with that name, you’d hope so, right?), and then it largely slashed that flying, as it increasingly looks at other markets
• BermudAir’s dispute with Bermuda Airport some time back over millions in unpaid airport fees certainly doesn’t built much confidence in the carrier’s sustainability

I’m not suggesting there’s no demand in any of these new markets. The demand may very well be there. But there’s a lot of challenges here:

• It takes a lot of effort to build up demand over time, in terms of the local community actually being familiar with an airline and its routes, and that requires spending money on marketing and patience (which also requires money!)
• It’s especially hard to build up demand when you have less than daily service and fly to secondary airports (like Orlando Sanford and St. Petersburg), since the flight options often won’t show up in search results for the main airports
• It goes without saying that at this point the branding is just completely off; when you hear the name BermudAir, you don’t expect an airline flying from St. Petersburg to Belize City, and I imagine that will make some people a bit uneasy about booking the airline, given the unknowns

We’ll see how this plays out, but in terms of vibes, this is a lot more “desperate airline throwing stuff at wall to see what sticks,” than “successful airline with good business plan expanding rationally.”

Bottom line

BermudAir plans a massive expansion. The initial strategy was to operate between Bermuda and the United States and Canada, though that obviously didn’t work so well, we saw several routes cut. Then the airline expanded to Anguilla. Now it’s expanding to Belize, Guatemala, and Turks & Caicos.

That’s, um… special. I’m very curious to see how this plays out. Maybe next we’ll see Falkland Islands to Gibraltar, or Saint Helena to South Georgia?

What do you make of BermudAir’s latest expansion?