Updated: April 27th, 2021 ago
As the situation continues to unfold, we are seeing a deluge of information across the internet — with much of the good and practical content being drowned out in the noise. At the same time, many people seem to not understand the gravity of the situation, whether that’s due to a lack of information or not having seen the math presented clearly.
We aren’t scientists ourselves (well, Travis is), but the blog gets more annual traffic than the world’s busiest airport, and we want to help everyone be as safe and informed as possible. So here’s what we know so far, and we’ll continue updating this guide with resources and details from reputable and evidence-based sources.
We’ll have a separate page with the impacts to travel and various policies, but having info about the virus itself in one place is helpful in not having to rehash all the health info each time we post something related.
The most important takeaway we have right now is that you should not wait for your local government to provide direction or information. Bureaucracies are slow to respond in general, the U.S. Federal government seems to be seizing every opportunity to make things worse, and some of the most effective measures right now can be executed by individuals, businesses, and communities, without government intervention.
In this post:
What is Coronavirus?
Coronavirus is a specific type of virus, named such for the way the virus appears under a microscope, that often causes respiratory disease in infected individuals. The common cold (some strains) are another example of coronaviruses, but the “COVID-19” strain is a new and unique virus that humanity has not previously experienced, nor built up any immunity to.
The good news is that it is possible for a virus to burn itself out — if it runs out of people to infect, we’ll see a reduction in cases. This ultimately happened with the SARS outbreak, and we have not seen any new cases of that virus since 2004.
Science suggests that it is possible for the COVID-19 virus to be controlled, and to limit the social and economic effects of the outbreak, but it will take an immediate and concerted global effort.
Stop saying it’s “just the flu”
Despite the comparisons, the novel COVID-19 Coronavirus is not the same as the flu. While there are some overlapping symptoms (more on those below), COVID-19 currently has a far greater societal risk than the flu.
- COVID-19 is more contagious than the flu, with each person who catches COVID-19 infecting at least two more, versus fewer than one for the flu
- This coronavirus is a full order of magnitude worse than the flu — the current fatality rate is 10x that of the flu
- April 21st note: Be cautious of the serological studies coming out of California (which feature problematic methodologies and have not been peer-reviewed), where the fatality rate seems promisingly low, and in direct contrast to the actual death toll in New York City
- A higher percentage of COVID-19 patients require hospitalization than with the seasonal flu, and in a shortened time window (in the next 3-6 weeks, versus the typical 3-6 month flu season)
- While the flu vaccine isn’t always terribly effective (ranging from 30%-60% each year), there is a flu vaccine at all — we are at least a year away from one for this coronavirus
- We have antivirals for the flu, such as Tamiflu, that can shorten the duration and severity of the infection — no such medicine exists for COVID-19
The good news is that for the majority people, this coronavirus is mild, and can be managed without hospitalization. But because of how contagious it is, the percentage of people who will require medical intervention is enough to overwhelm most communities, and the fatality rate is high enough to be devastating.
COVID-19 is not the flu.
Countries with Coronavirus
COVID-19 is now a global pandemic. While the map of confirmed cases is constantly changing, and is subject to the ability of governments to test and report data, it is reasonable to assume that all countries potentially have this coronavirus within their borders.
The WHO Director-General’s opening remarks from last Wednesday sum up the situation:
In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the number of affected countries climb even higher.
WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction.
We have therefore made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.
Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly. It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death.
Describing the situation as a pandemic does not change WHO’s assessment of the threat posed by this virus. It doesn’t change what WHO is doing, and it doesn’t change what countries should do.
We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. This is the first pandemic caused by a coronavirus.
And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled, at the same time.
A few weeks ago, before the full extent of the potential pandemic and contagion rates were known, we tried to make the point that going somewhere was effectively the same as going anywhere, and advised people not to change their travel destinations based on where COVID-19 might theoretically be, and instead assume that it was present everywhere, and act accordingly:
While we appreciate the questions from people asking if they should avoid traveling to ______ until this blows over, the reality is that our world is too connected for this kind of unpredictable and contagious virus to stay geographically contained.
Given that, it seems unwise to assume that anywhere is “safe” from contagion.
That assumption hasn’t changed, but at this point, we are recommending against traveling for the next 14-21 days, internationally or domestically, full-stop. Just cancel the trip. I know that’s hard to hear, and it’s worse to say, but that is where we are at now.
Based on what we’ve seen in airports this week, if you are currently traveling, it may be better to take a “shelter in place” approach rather than trying to repatriate. That is in line with global calls for social distancing as a preventative measure, as it is ultimately impossible to insulate yourself from strangers in airports and airplanes, but operations are also becoming messy.
This thing moves fast, and so circumstances change rapidly. A week ago I was speaking at a conference (where a federal government official teased me for not shaking hands), and making plans to get materials to another one today. That seems unimaginable now, and it’s impossible to anticipate what next week will look like, but I would plan on global transportation being more impacted/restricted than it is today.
How do I prevent Coronavirus?
Right now, the best thing you can do is isolate your contact with other individuals as much as possible.
Taking care of yourself and getting enough rest is important too, along with:
- Washing your hands frequently and thoroughly
- Avoiding touching surfaces to the extent possible
- Covering your coughs
- Staying home and self-quarantining if you’re feeling ill
As a society, anything we can do to reduce the number of people being infected each day will lead to better outcomes.
Exponential growth management matters
This coronavirus is particularly concerning because of how contagious it is. On average, each infected person (whether or not they are showing symptoms) is infecting at least two more people over the span of time before they are isolated or effectively quarantined.
Put another way, each person who catches COVID-19, regardless of their ultimate individual outcome, doubles the number of people infected.
Here’s a video that explains how that exponential growth works, and thus why it’s so important to limit the spread of infection immediately:
Social distancing is imperative, panic-buying is not
At this point, the best precaution you can take is by social distancing, and it is critical that you do so to the extent you are able:
“It’s too late now to prevent this coronavirus from spreading in our communities, but by working together to limit and slow that spread, we can save lives.” – Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and former commissioner of the New York City Health Department.
Social distancing works because fundamentally, you can improve your odds by changing the probability distribution — the fewer people you are around, or for more limited amounts of time, the lower your odds of catching and/or spreading this virus. And by improving your odds, you change the odds for your community as well. Each person who catches COVID-19 infects at least two more people.
The more people who can remove themselves from the first part of that equation, the better.
If you are one of the 29% of Americans with a white-collar or desk job, working from home for the next few weeks is probably a good idea. Employers should be encouraging this whenever possible. A large portion of the country have jobs that can only be done in person — everything from waste management workers to delivery agents to cashiers to healthcare workers — and the math seems to suggest that the fewer people we can expose to the virus at once, the better off we’ll collectively be.
This doesn’t mean you have to stay in a bunker for the next month. Going outside is good for you. But you should consider being thoughtful about your activities and your circle of interaction, particularly as schools start to close and childcare becomes complicated for many families. Pooling resources with a few other households and limiting contact to within that group may be worth considering, versus having a rotation of contacts.
Again, not everyone has the resources or option to stay home, but if you can find any way to make it work, you should. By limiting your interaction with others, you not only protect yourself, but the two people you’d statistically spread the virus to, and the four people they’d potentially infect, and the eight people they’d spread to, etc.
If you have have extra resources (be they time, money, or even just flexibility), now might be a good time to look at how you can help others in your community. If you have a job where you have to be physically present, or are going to the store anyway, maybe you can offer to pick up groceries, prescriptions, or even pet supplies for a higher-risk neighbor, thus enabling them to stay home and reducing their exposure.
We can collectively work to change the odds of this thing.
Why it is important to “flatten the curve”
Taking the approach of “whatever, we’re all going to get it, there’s nothing we can do, and it’s not that deadly” is fatalistic, and in this case potentially very dangerous.
Yes, anywhere from 20% to 70% of the global population will likely contract COVID-19 this year. But not only is there a huge range between 20% and 70%, there is no requirement that everyone gets infected at once.
And reducing the number of initial infections (or spreading them out over time) not only improves health outcomes across the board, but reduces the chance of a complete meltdown of your local healthcare system.
Ultimately, being aggressive today will save lives. Even if we never find a vaccine, or a more efficient and effective treatment protocol, if we can spread out the time where people are being infected (keeping in mind that each infected person infects two more), everyone is better off.
What about the economics?
This is definitely a concern, as (particularly in the United States), our social and economic situation is not conducive to allowing people to stay home when they are sick, or don’t have childcare.
This ball is already rolling, however. Airlines, airports, and even entire countries are closing down, and at this point there will be a massive impact on the global economy, the aviation industry, and various travel and hospitality brands regardless. We run two travel companies ourselves, and are already seeing the impacts to those businesses, though recognize we are in a better position than many, as we at least work virtually. It will unquestionably be difficult, and there is no question that many brands will not survive the economic adjustment (though that was going to be true regardless of what precipitated the next market correction).
But the health of humans matters more, and to our knowledge, no economist has suggested that a sudden spike in cases improves anything. To the contrary, a severe quarantine period that limits the number of people infected may allow for a faster and more robust recovery, as it will almost certainly mean fewer deaths.
Putting it another way, while every business is different, for some it may be less damaging to just close your operations for the next 2-3 weeks (particularly if you provide a non-essential service), reduce expenses, and take that short-term loss, versus having a 50% reduction in business for the next 2-3 months. It’s still going to be so, so, so difficult, for so many folks, especially those in small independent businesses.
At the same time, if you have the cash reserves to continue paying (or even partially paying) your staff, that may help to insulate some of the knock-on effects in our consumer-driven economy. This isn’t possible for all companies, but as an example, we are planning on providing even our commission-based peeps with an average of their paychecks for the next few weeks, even though the demand for new bookings has obviously plummeted. Our hope is that doing so is less costly for everyone in the long-run, and we want to do what we can to take care of the people who have contributed to the success of our business.
From the consumer side, if there are local businesses that you love or patronize frequently, and your budget allows, maybe see if you can buy a gift card or pre-pay for some services, to help reduce the cash crunch for small retailers, restaurants, and other service providers.
But there are certainly no easy answers, and even fewer guarantees. The best reopening plan we’ve seen is this one, which is a joint effort from several scientists, economists, and researchers:
Symptoms of Coronavirus
While the severity varies, these are the common symptoms of COVID-19, and how they differ (and overlap) with cold, flu, and allergy symptoms:
COVID-19 | Seasonal Flu | Allergies & Common Cold |
|---|---|---|
Fever Dry Cough Shortness of breath Difficulty breathing | Aches Fatigue Headache Chills Dry Cough Fever | Sneezing Stuffy or runny nose Sore throat |
What to do if you think you have Coronavirus
The CDC recommends that if you are sick with COVID-19 or suspect you are infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, you should:
- Stay home except to get medical care
- Separate yourself from other people and animals in your home
- Call ahead before visiting your doctor
- Wear a facemask (masks help you from infecting others, though previous guidance was that they do next to nothing to prevent you getting infected yourself — as of April 3rd, the recommendation is now to cover your nose and mouth when in public areas)
- Cover your coughs and sneezes
- Avoid sharing personal household items
- Clean your hands often
- Clean all “high-touch” surfaces every day
- Monitor your symptoms
- Remain in isolation until you are cleared by your local health department
It’s particularly important to note that if you think you might have this coronavirus, you should call, rather than just show up at the hospital. The situation is evolving rapidly, different areas all have different limitations and approaches, and the triage process will vary dramatically.
Coronavirus Treatment
There is currently no specific medication for COVID-19. Treatment protocols for this coronavirus are geared around helping the body fight off the virus on its own.
For mild cases of the disease, this may be as simple as getting rest and using over-the-counter medications to help alleviate symptoms.
However, because this coronavirus damages the lungs, more severe cases will require hospitalization and aggressive treatment to encourage proper oxygenation of the blood stream so as to reduce damage to to other organs and systemic shutdown. As Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and former commissioner of the New York City Health Department notes:
“Many deaths from flu are caused by secondary bacterial pneumonia and heart attacks that develop after the flu has weakened someone’s resistance.
With Covid-19, most deaths are caused by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which causes already-damaged lungs to fill with fluid, and makes breathing difficult. Unlike pneumonia, there is no pharmaceutical treatment for ARDS. That is why a potential shortage of ventilators is so dangerous: They are the last-ditch supportive treatment for Covid-19 while the body heals itself.”
Ventilators and hospital beds are both limited resources; the best way to ensure they are available to the people who need them most is for everyone to help slow down how quickly this spreads, so we can cycle people through treatment facilities at an appropriate pace.
This is all A Lot
I think it’s also important to acknowledge that this is new, and unprecedented. There’s a ton of information out there (of varying quality), and a real risk of people getting overwhelmed or tuning out. It feels silly to be reacting so aggressively to something that for many folks is a minor illness, but the actions we all take at this point could have an outsized impact on the end result.
“Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate.” — Michael O. Leavitt, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, 2007.
At the same time, everyone can only do the best they can do. We’re all making decisions based on the information we have available (and that information is constantly changing), and the resources we each have. Let’s all try and be as supportive of each other and individual circumstances as we can. Being kind and calm never hurts anything.
@Sami
That’s some kind of fake Paolo...
Please at least get the basic terminology correct. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. The illness it causes in homo sapiens is Covid-19. I won't comment further on so controversial a topic other than to mention that I was lucky to get it very early in the cycle myself, including the brief biphasic relapse a few weeks later as some have reported. I now feel like I'm walking about with a secret super power and can visit my elderly mother without fear of putting her at risk.
Undoubtedly there are some real sick readers here and Paolo is one of them...perhaps his statement might change when he catches the virus.
Meh, it's just the flu.
sorry, couldn't resist! ;)
Thank you for a clear and concise article taking out all of the mumbo-jumbo.
Don't flatten the curve, just kill it
https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727
Phil
Great* article*
Sorry, autocorrect!
Greedy article, thank you for writing this!
Great presentation of the information/understanding that we have so far. And more than that one should not expect of anyone. Very useful article.
Thanks Tiffany. Common sense article.
I am a board certified, fellowship trained, full time practicing infectious disease MD who has been dealing with this first hand.
This article is the single best article on a travel website on the subject, by far.
Whoever wrote it took the time to read and understand the experts. They didn’t interject hokey urban legends. And most importantly, they didn’t let greed and the desire to propagate what would get them clicks to alter the...
I am a board certified, fellowship trained, full time practicing infectious disease MD who has been dealing with this first hand.
This article is the single best article on a travel website on the subject, by far.
Whoever wrote it took the time to read and understand the experts. They didn’t interject hokey urban legends. And most importantly, they didn’t let greed and the desire to propagate what would get them clicks to alter the content. This is in great contrast to the TPG or others who seem to be more concerned with whining and how this is all somehow hysteria.
100,000,000 thumbs up.
@"The Points God"
So what?
Leave him and his tabloid alone. We all know there are more things behind the scene.
After all, he was at Bulge Bracket investment bank before. The drugs and party was their way of life. Where did you think Wall Street spent all our tax money. The irony here is while you can't really take your bankers out for fun, they can and will make sure you have a good time and a very happy ending. :)
Mick we know the fatality rate from Korea where they have done extensive testing.
For me, this article highlighted the difference between why I enjoy this blog but also read news. I found the lack of reference to ‘source documents’ frustrating - and that felling was confirmed by the response ‘we did our best but this is not our area of expertise.’ Not a reason a news organization gets to use.
@ Wannaseetheworld -- Reading the news is great! I linked to nearly two dozen source documents though -- is there a different way you'd have expected the citations to work?
Thank you Tiffany. This is the best summary that I've read.
It's unfortunate that your federal government has trivialized the severity of the pandemic.
They have also screwed up the immigration procedure. Looking at the mobs of arrivals jammed together waiting for up to 7 hours to be processed. Absolutely the very worst possible situation for spreading the disease. The exact opposite of social distancing with the most at risk cohort.
Hopefully we all get...
Thank you Tiffany. This is the best summary that I've read.
It's unfortunate that your federal government has trivialized the severity of the pandemic.
They have also screwed up the immigration procedure. Looking at the mobs of arrivals jammed together waiting for up to 7 hours to be processed. Absolutely the very worst possible situation for spreading the disease. The exact opposite of social distancing with the most at risk cohort.
Hopefully we all get through this together.
I think, more telling than anything, is a comment from one of your readers in a previous post regarding the lines at immigration yesterday and the exposure people were under for hours..
This from @Cargocult........“The virus surely spread among the crowds at customs yesterday. Will clearing some boomer liabilities off the books be so bad?”
You have some sick readers here. We can argue and debate, even get heated, but if anything the takeaway for...
I think, more telling than anything, is a comment from one of your readers in a previous post regarding the lines at immigration yesterday and the exposure people were under for hours..
This from @Cargocult........“The virus surely spread among the crowds at customs yesterday. Will clearing some boomer liabilities off the books be so bad?”
You have some sick readers here. We can argue and debate, even get heated, but if anything the takeaway for me is that you are allowing people here to wish death on older people for simply being a part of a generation. My god, what have we become? What has this blog become?
@Tiffany, nice job on the article.
One correction. You say "COVID-19 is more contagious than the flu, with each person who catches COVID-19 infecting at least two more, versus fewer than one for the flu."
You're referring to the contagion factor (R0), which indicates how many people on average will catch the disease from an infected individual.
The R0 for Covid-19 is estimated to be 2.2 (as you referenced). The R0 for influenza is approximately...
@Tiffany, nice job on the article.
One correction. You say "COVID-19 is more contagious than the flu, with each person who catches COVID-19 infecting at least two more, versus fewer than one for the flu."
You're referring to the contagion factor (R0), which indicates how many people on average will catch the disease from an infected individual.
The R0 for Covid-19 is estimated to be 2.2 (as you referenced). The R0 for influenza is approximately 1.3, so not "fewer than one" but rather 1.3 new infections for every infection.
This is important because an R0 less than 1 indicates that the disease will eventually die out on its own (less people will get infected over time) whereas an R0 greater than 1 means that external measures (containment, vaccination, etc.) are required to control the disease.
The contagion factor (R0) for the SARS epidemic in 2003 was 3-4. For measles it is 12-18 (which is why the measles vaccine is important).
@LarryInNYC: You are incorrect about the case fatality rate. It is calculated by dividing fatalities by diagnosed cases (not by dividing fatalities by recovered cases, as you said).
@Donna - What does "could go" "at least" even mean. Maybe they aren't the experts you thought they were.
Thanks for taking the time to write this post.
@Colin - you going to "both sides..." this one? Really?
Here's how Fox has been misleading viewers over the last month: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/media/fox-news-coronavirus/index.html
Care to refute anything in it? Or give us the equivalent big Fox/OAN expose on "the liberal MSM Coronavirus hoax"?
Preach it, Dr. Funk!
Mike - Actually, yes. All "news" outlets have priorities, and telling straight news definitely isn't the top.
The experts are now saying this crisis could go on for at least six months. Last week, now seems like a year ago. Thanks for this report, Tiffany.
Lots of people don't like the digs at this administration, but offering no facts / actual defense of the shit show that is going on. I'm curious -- you read the news, but only Fox? You read the news other than Fox but you think it is some massive conspiracy and lies? You don't read the news? You think this admin and its leader are benevolent, competent, and truthful? Please, sell me some of what you are on!
Thank you so very much , Tiffany. You've done a great job summarizing the situation so far.
@Matt Fortini - the government isn’t actively making this worse, but the (lack of) speed and coordination that we’re seeing is what happens when scientists and experts are considered by an administration to be part of the “deep state.”
Also, the fact that you latched onto that single sentence out of a very useful article shows you’re completely missing the point - why go out of your way to politicize something like this?
Finally,...
@Matt Fortini - the government isn’t actively making this worse, but the (lack of) speed and coordination that we’re seeing is what happens when scientists and experts are considered by an administration to be part of the “deep state.”
Also, the fact that you latched onto that single sentence out of a very useful article shows you’re completely missing the point - why go out of your way to politicize something like this?
Finally, the sense of victimization (“ I guess you’ll remove this” etc) is simply tiring. Make your point, stand by your argument, and move on.
Tiffany, thanks for the very useful article. I admit that I‘ve had some of those thoughts (“I’m young and healthy,” and “everyone is going to get it anyway, so what difference does it make, why crash the economy in the process” etc) but you lay out really compelling reasons to take this seriously and change behavior.
UA-NYC - Just stop it with your endless anti Trump rhetoric. It's tiresome.
Great article.
Too bad the dying American Airlines forces you to wait on hold for three hours to verbally request miles from a cancelled ticket be returned to your AAdvantage account.
@ Tom...TPG is not recommending international travel. Read their recent article on why no one should travel to Mexico.
@James - it's not "a presidential administration we don't like", it's "a presidential administration that is openly lying and has put its head in the sand the past couple months".
Now, back to our scientists, doctors, state governors, and city mayors leading the charge in the fight.
Some great info here. Excellent post and I especially love the jab at Trump! Just the right balance of thoughtful advice and politics.
" '(T)his isn't our area of expertise', but it's an opportunity to score some cheap points against a presidential administration we don't like."
Excellent! Thanks for putting this out. I hope everyone takes this seriously. The sooner we all do our part to mitigate the spread the sooner we get back to normal and burning all those miles :)
I thought America was confused, then I read this article that say everything clearly, concisely and accurately. This could have been written by the UK's Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Advisor.
This is pretty much what we're doing across the pond and it makes total sense. Community & self responsibility. Flatten the curve by personal action. A little bit of altruism goes a long way.
You've added practical steps to achieve this. Journalism at...
I thought America was confused, then I read this article that say everything clearly, concisely and accurately. This could have been written by the UK's Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Medical Advisor.
This is pretty much what we're doing across the pond and it makes total sense. Community & self responsibility. Flatten the curve by personal action. A little bit of altruism goes a long way.
You've added practical steps to achieve this. Journalism at its finest. Congratulations.
@Matt Fortini Not sure why you think they will delete your comment. One of the reasons I keep coming back here is because Lucky and Tiffany have thick skin and they are willing to leave criticism of themselves up, even if it's some bogus clown who takes Lucky's words out of context (which happens a lot). Not saying your post is bogus. It seems like reasonable criticism to me even though I personally don't have any issues with Tiffany's post.
@ThePointsGod - so juicy.
Remember 20%-70% is a difference of 50%. 50% of the Earth's population is 3.5 billion, and if CoViD-19 ends up with a global case fatality rate (CFR) of 1% (this would be a best case scenario, since there are plenty of undeveloped and developing countries who will likely see much higher fatality rates), that's an extra 35 million people dead.
Now the nightmare scenario: if the health care system gets overwhelmed like in Hubei and...
Remember 20%-70% is a difference of 50%. 50% of the Earth's population is 3.5 billion, and if CoViD-19 ends up with a global case fatality rate (CFR) of 1% (this would be a best case scenario, since there are plenty of undeveloped and developing countries who will likely see much higher fatality rates), that's an extra 35 million people dead.
Now the nightmare scenario: if the health care system gets overwhelmed like in Hubei and CFR rockets to above 20% like in the earlier stages of the outbreak in Hubei, then the number of deaths would be absolutely catastrophic at above 700 million.
In summary, this isn't a flu and avoid non-essential travel, a lot of lives hang in the balance.
Good recommendation to remain in place for a few days if you are a US Citizen or Green card holder returning from Europe. After Monday night - non-US will not be able to enter the US - so they would be flying.
A lot of the crowd now is likely non-US trying to get into the US - maybe students etc who have a need to be here. Flights are being reduced - but there will still be flights over the next week after Monday night.
@Matt Fortini +2
Good article, Tiffany. NIce to see such a thoughtful (Coronavirus) piece on a travel blog.
Well done! Facts ! We in health care will do our part and we will get through this. I urge everyone to consider not only themselves (if low risk) but the vulnerable you may infect. By keeping yourself healthy, you buy us precious time.
@Matt Fortini - +1
Fun read about The Points God to pass the time.
https://archive.fo/K0W7H
Tiffany, I know you're modding these threads, and I guess you will remove this. Cutting off my tongue won't prove me wrong, though:
You need to keep your unsolicited punditry out of an informational thread like this. It makes everyone question why you're doing it, which diminishes the value of the information given. Which is not helpful at all.
Now is not a time do get cheap digs in. Now is a time to come...
Tiffany, I know you're modding these threads, and I guess you will remove this. Cutting off my tongue won't prove me wrong, though:
You need to keep your unsolicited punditry out of an informational thread like this. It makes everyone question why you're doing it, which diminishes the value of the information given. Which is not helpful at all.
Now is not a time do get cheap digs in. Now is a time to come together for the benefit of all of us. Remember: every slur you hurl at the other side, they can hurl right back in your face with as much justification as you believe you have.
Please consider this: of course the US federal government isn't "taking every opportunity to make thing worse". Nobody is incentivized to do so. There's no upside. It's a ridiculous, polemic, inane statement to offer in a post like this.
Finally: please consider having the integrity to let this comment be seen by the OMAAT community. We're in a crisis, leave petty politics for tomorrow. I'm calling for unity, and I mean it very seriously.
Thank you so much Tiffany; really valuable contribution to us all in these difficult times
Yes, stop saying “it’s just the flu”, and FFS sake stop saying “I’ll be okay because it only kills older people, or those with weakened immunity “ ( ...in respect of the latter point, aside from being a totally moronic and profoundly ignorant argument, the more recent reports from Italy suggest it's not necessarily the case, and that some younger people are indeed getting very ill and dying)
@ Mick. The 1% mortality rate...
Yes, stop saying “it’s just the flu”, and FFS sake stop saying “I’ll be okay because it only kills older people, or those with weakened immunity “ ( ...in respect of the latter point, aside from being a totally moronic and profoundly ignorant argument, the more recent reports from Italy suggest it's not necessarily the case, and that some younger people are indeed getting very ill and dying)
@ Mick. The 1% mortality rate ( ie, 10X seasonal flu) is a projection based on the science. The current rate is 3.4% or higher. No one is suggesting less than 1%, perhaps other than the readers of tea leaves/ examiners of chicken entrails/ouija board freaks from Fox News/ Jared Kushner’s FB friends.
This is a very useful summary, full of good advice.
This is an incredibly well done summary Tiffany. Thank you.
Just a few small pieces of advice from Italy. We are in the middle of the storm and hundreds of people are dying every day. It’s true that many had other problems, nevertheless...
If you feel you have a sore throat, please gargle often with Benzydamine hydrochloride oral rinse or similar
Seems like infections stay mild if they cannot pass after the throat
Symptoms vary but the most critical point is after...
Just a few small pieces of advice from Italy. We are in the middle of the storm and hundreds of people are dying every day. It’s true that many had other problems, nevertheless...
If you feel you have a sore throat, please gargle often with Benzydamine hydrochloride oral rinse or similar
Seems like infections stay mild if they cannot pass after the throat
Symptoms vary but the most critical point is after the first few days with high fever, often there are another few days in which you feel much better and have no pain and no fever. Continue acting as if you were still infected for at least 7/10 days.
Good luck to everyone
"The common cold and influenza are other examples of coronaviruses,"
No - influenza is a completely different virus, not at all related to coronavirus. This is such a misstatement that it justifies a correction. Influenza virus(es) causes the flu, which as you correctly point out, is a completely different disease. *Some* colds (but not all) are caused by other, less lethal coronavirus strains.
@ Epidemiologist -- Corrected, thank you! Please let me know if you see anything else; we did our best to source everything, but this isn't our area of expertise.
I applaud you guys! TPG is disgustingly encouraging travel. I hope their site goes bankrupt.
....now, however badly you want to go, because you are likely to be stuck and the government won’t help
My dad decided to go skiing in France this weekend (apparently because he left the hire car boot shelf in the garage but that’s a whole other story) and the resorts stressed that they were open, everything was normal. Suddenly on Saturday night the ski resorts closed and France went into partial lockdown, his airport transfer was rearranged as was his flight to Sunday morning.
Do not travel
Thanks Ben.
Nice to see that while TPG has a focus on where you can still travel to, you are just wisely telling folks to stay home.
Thank you for keeping us informed. I appreciate it
Great post.
It correctly emphasizes that it's not about an individual fares, it's as much about who they give it to.
So many times, I've heard "I'm young and healthy, so I'm not worried".
Your grandparents aren't young. Your parents aren't young.
Maybe some educational piece about not needing to buy 5 year supplies of everything.
And once hoarding gets back normal, maybe TP soup with hand gel punch recipe? So we can get rid of all our leftover supplies.
@Mick,
Same logic can be applied to the flu as well. Listen to the experts on this one.
Very well written. Let's all make the right decisions and prevent things from getting worse than necessary.
Great article!!!!!!!
@Mick: the fatality rate for the flu also exhibits the same effect -- we only know the rate over DIAGNOSED cases.
You're right that it's too early to determine there true fatality rate of CV 19, but that's because it's very early in the contagion. Also, people are dividing fatalities by diagnosed cases, which is not correct. The actual rate is fatalities over recoveries. By that metric, today's numbers from Italy (for instance) give a...
@Mick: the fatality rate for the flu also exhibits the same effect -- we only know the rate over DIAGNOSED cases.
You're right that it's too early to determine there true fatality rate of CV 19, but that's because it's very early in the contagion. Also, people are dividing fatalities by diagnosed cases, which is not correct. The actual rate is fatalities over recoveries. By that metric, today's numbers from Italy (for instance) give a 20% fatality rate while the one-day fatality to incidence ratio is about 10%. Both of those numbers are two full orders of magnitude worse than the flu.
Great article!
Really hope people diversify their sources of news too to keep abreast of everything going on, given the daily (or even hourly changes). Versus sticking to a single one, which may not be, how shall we say, "fair and balanced".
A good balanced article Tiff. Well done. Here In the UK were all following governmental advice and just carrying on as “ normal “ everywhere else In Europe has been shut down. Go figure.......
This was exceptionally well done. The only thing I will argue with is the buying a gift card advice. I truly promise you that many of these small businesses will die, taking your gift card dollars with them. Buying a gift card is just handing your money away. Call your congressperson to encourage them to bail out small business. Don’t try to do it $50 at a time... you will lose your shirt.
Nicely done!
We can't say it that the fatality rate is 10x that of the flu.
It is possible that more than 1 Million aleady have/had the virus and noone knew because they didn't test them.
If that's the case the fatality is the same.
I am not saying it isn't dangerous, but it is to early to give numbers already.
This is fantastic Tiffany. Spread the word and flatten the curve. People do not like being inconvenienced and there are going to be some seriously inconvenient times ahead. But we have to spread unpopular messages.
Spread the word and flatten the curve.
Meanwhile, the PH St Kitts has instituted a resort fee!