United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has done a phenomenal job running the airline over the past several years, and I have a lot of respect for him. He has improved the passenger experience, the route network has kept growing under his leadership, and United is also making progress when it comes to improved profitability. It really feels like the airline has a strategy that it’s executing on.
However, Kirby is also a bit “out there” when it comes to the things he says. Kirby has repeatedly claimed that United is the “best airline in the history of aviation,” and he has proposed mega-mergers with either American or Delta, to essentially create a “flag carrier” for the US.
While he has been rejected for these merger proposals (since regulatory approval seems highly unlikely), it’s not an idea he’s ready to drop, and here’s the latest example of that…
In this post:
CEO wants United to be flag carrier that Americans are proud of
Yesterday, United held a press event to formally unveil its new Airbus A321XLR, and also to announce a huge international expansion. As usual, Kirby had a lot to say to media, including the following:
“I want to create an airline that U.S. citizens, all U.S. citizens, think of as the flag carrier of the United States, and they’re proud of the airline. Just like somebody in Dubai is proud of Emirates. I want American U.S. citizens to feel the same way about United Airlines, and that’s my goal.”
It’s pretty clear that this entire narrative is framed around Kirby’s goal of still seeing some mega consolidation between the “big three” carriers, and merging with either American or Delta.
Why? Well, we’re a huge country, and generally airline loyalty is based on where someone lives. Kirby says he wants all Americans to view United as the flag carrier and be proud of it, so clearly that also means he wants United to be, by far, the largest carrier in the country. He wants United to be to the United States as Air Koryo is to North Korea… or something.
What’s Kirby’s real motive for this consolidation narrative?
Kirby is a very bright and deliberate guy, and I can’t for the life of me figure out what his real motive is with all of this consolidation talk. Does he really, truly believe that he can convince regulators and the public that a merger between two of the “big three” carriers would be good for consumers?
I definitely think he believes that if there’s ever a chance of this getting approval, it would be under Trump, which also explains why he has been so flattering of him. But even so, this seems completely far-fetched and unrealistic to me, since a deal like this would require a lot more than approval from the federal government.
The irony in Kirby’s statements about Emirates is that he wants the US flag carrier to be similar to a government owned airline in the Gulf, which has no unions, and serves a market that’s a tiny percentage of the size of the United States (in terms of both population and land mass). This new narrative is quite the departure from the old narrative of accusing Gulf carriers of not being profit driven, but instead, of getting endless subsidies (a narrative I disagree with, but that’s what he said).
It goes without saying that if we started eliminating the “big three” carriers, the “checks” we have in place to promote competition (from a pricing and passenger experience perspective) would go out the window.
Investors in the United States are simply insatiable when it comes to the ever-increasing profits they demand, and obviously the goal of any sort of consolidation would be to be able to raise fares. Americans want competition, they don’t want a single airline to be proud of.
To give the most obvious example of why this would be bad for consumers, airlines have raised prices due to higher fuel costs, and airline executives (and particularly Kirby) have argued that these fare increases are here to stay, as they think they can keep those higher fares even after jet fuel prices decline.
In other words, if they have any opportunity to raise fares, they will. So why would we not believe that a single “flag carrier” in the United States would raise fares as much as possible?
I just don’t get this narrative. Does Kirby think we’re all thinking “gee, I do like competitive airfare pricing, but what I like even more is one flag carrier I can be proud of, which has nearly unlimited pricing power?” Yeah, no…
Bottom line
United CEO Scott Kirby obviously isn’t ready to drop his narrative any time soon around a mega merger with either American or Delta. This week, Kirby has reiterated how he wants United to be the flag carrier of the United States, and be an airline that all Americans are proud of, comparing it to Emirates.
There’s a certain irony to United’s CEO comparing the airline to Emirates, which is government owned, has no unions, and serves a very small country. If United wants to keep improving the passenger experience, that’s awesome, and something we can all get behind. But if the airline wants to achieve this “flag carrier” status by merging and eliminating competition (which is clearly the goal), I don’t think that’s something that most consumers would appreciate.
What do you make of Kirby’s comments?
Hey Scott, if you want to be the Emirates or premium carrier of the US, maybe don’t sub a 737 MAX with recliner seats on an SF-Newark flight. You are flying hub to hub, you should NEVER have a non premium plane on a premium route. Oh, and Tim, if you need records of United flying a non-premium plane and marketing Polaris, take UA 1149 today.
I would have no problem if United and American merged and Southwest became the primary competition. It would change nothing whatsoever about my travel patterns. UnAmerican to get me where I want to go and Southwest for the occasions when it's more convenient for me to go to Love Field, Hobby, or BWI. Other airlines can cease to exist and I wouldn't even notice.
United or any US carrier will never be on the scale of Emirates even if all regulations were to disappear overnight.
Emirates operates in one hub city in a country that is much smaller than the US compared to the US’ multi-hub operations over a greater area.
Not to mention, United is already nearly four times larger than Emirates by fleet size and passenger count. The idea that geography or 'regulation' is what's holding United back from 'market dominance' is a farce.
A US airline by nature will never be able to contend on the level of a gulf carrier. The customer base is very different. Most people flying on UA (and any other domestic US carrier) are Mr and Mrs Middle Class and maybe a couple of kids going on vacation or maybe to see the grandparents. They aren't going into the premium swanky lounges or sitting in a first class seat. They are back split...
A US airline by nature will never be able to contend on the level of a gulf carrier. The customer base is very different. Most people flying on UA (and any other domestic US carrier) are Mr and Mrs Middle Class and maybe a couple of kids going on vacation or maybe to see the grandparents. They aren't going into the premium swanky lounges or sitting in a first class seat. They are back split up between row 29 and 32. Sitting at the gate wondering why their flight hasn't begun to board.
Sure, we in the US could go back to the PanAm Clipper days but you'd a collapse in demand that would bankrupt every airline.
To be sure, gulf carriers carry ordinary middle class people but not at the volume US domestic carriers do.
Oh, George... Kirby isn't dreaming about serving 'Mr. and Mrs. Middle Class' caviar...he's dreaming about having no competitors so he can charge them $1,200 for a middle seat in row 31.
There's no shortage of middle class people from the UK and Northern Europe going into the EK premium lounges for their big annual holiday to Thailand etc or even to visit their kids in Oceania. They're a core part of the EK business model as the wealthy don't tend to have much interest in a 3am connection in the Middle East, though some of them might squeeze in a short stopover for a bit of shopping and time by the pool.
"Kirby is a very bright and deliberate guy..."
Lemmie fix that for you.
Kirby is a very bright and deliberate and megalomaniacal guy with delusions of grandeur..."
Glad to be of service.
Without sterile transit, no US airline can ever be the Emirates of the US.
Kirby cites Emirates, but he’s just rewarming the “chosen instrument” argument Pan Am used to make. I think his real audience for that sound bite is Trump, for whatever reason.
United is growing the fastest of any carrier long haul in the United States. They are becoming the defacto flag carrier. They shouldn’t need to purchase another airline to get there. No one has better hubs located to capture premium business traffic than United in the United States. United has hubs in 6 of the top 7 GDP cities in the US (all but Dallas).
SFO & EWR are their key coastal gateways with...
United is growing the fastest of any carrier long haul in the United States. They are becoming the defacto flag carrier. They shouldn’t need to purchase another airline to get there. No one has better hubs located to capture premium business traffic than United in the United States. United has hubs in 6 of the top 7 GDP cities in the US (all but Dallas).
SFO & EWR are their key coastal gateways with LAX serving as a strategic hub.
Denver is their mountain west domestic hub and Chicago is their Midwest connector (yes I know it is flawed due to congestion and high airport fees). Houston is the southern hub.
United still has a lot of growth potential at IAD.
Any acquisition will be a complete distraction and should definitely be disallowed by regulators.
"United still has a lot of growth potential at IAD."
They're proving this by aligning themselves with the fat orange Nazi administration in destroying the main terminal at Dulles, and turning it into a gilded shopping mall with a rooftop food court (or something).
This guy is a nauseating, MAGA coded symbol of American arrogance, provincialism, is downright obnoxious. At the first sign of an economic downturn (and one is more than likely on the horizon) all this idiotic hubris will subside as the CEOs of the US3 go begging for more bailouts.
Mhm. And when they all do inevitably come for those taxpayer bailouts, please, pretty please, let's include an EU261-equivalent in the US as a stipulation (duty of care, compensation, Rule 240, etc.) If we're going to bail them out anyway, at least get something for us in exchange.
As for Scott, it may be even worse than you suggest. You may have seen that Gary (from VFTW) has a theory that Mr. Kirby is...
Mhm. And when they all do inevitably come for those taxpayer bailouts, please, pretty please, let's include an EU261-equivalent in the US as a stipulation (duty of care, compensation, Rule 240, etc.) If we're going to bail them out anyway, at least get something for us in exchange.
As for Scott, it may be even worse than you suggest. You may have seen that Gary (from VFTW) has a theory that Mr. Kirby is more like Captain Renault in the film Casablanca: "I blow with the wind, and the prevailing wind happens to be from Vichy." Scott will appease whoever is in power because he has no real principles. Should we pity him? He is, after all, only "…a poor corrupt official."
'Emirates of the US'... So, Kirby wants 2-3-2 outdated business class, lounges stuck in 2010, and a lack of any real competition or worker/consumer protections, all enforced by an oil-backed theocratic monarchy? Yikes. That's a big 'nope for me, dawg.' (And, yet, I can see it happening.)
One wonders if the first non-stop service to Slovenia in what, four decades or so, is based in economic reality or if it just happens to be a destination where the First Lady hails from.
Likewise they say that Nuuk is doing well, but have they released actual numbers? Didn't it do a 51% load in 2025?
I suppose United is going to have to try to further appease by changing the color...
One wonders if the first non-stop service to Slovenia in what, four decades or so, is based in economic reality or if it just happens to be a destination where the First Lady hails from.
Likewise they say that Nuuk is doing well, but have they released actual numbers? Didn't it do a 51% load in 2025?
I suppose United is going to have to try to further appease by changing the color scheme from JFK blue with the continental world globe to the red/dark blue/gold AF1 colors so that it can directly or indirectly imply that United is really just talking about the United States not a United world.
Sigh.
Hey now... Lake Bled is lovely this time of year! Also, I really don't care, do u? Be best!
If any CEO has lost respect in the speed they have for me, Kirby definitely is it. He is a prolific and brilliant CEO, that’s for sure and nobody can take that away from him but the manner he has been handling the public relations side of himself, so awful. You can be a profit minded CEO and still come off as approachable and respected, Jamie Dimon is one. The guy is methodical and is...
If any CEO has lost respect in the speed they have for me, Kirby definitely is it. He is a prolific and brilliant CEO, that’s for sure and nobody can take that away from him but the manner he has been handling the public relations side of himself, so awful. You can be a profit minded CEO and still come off as approachable and respected, Jamie Dimon is one. The guy is methodical and is apolitical publicly, even though he is known to be a Democrat privately
moment you get into politics and start speaking outlandish statements and claims that sounds unrealistic (like musk), that is how you alienate people
Well said, Jaime is a class act. No matter the politicians that are popular at the time, he stays level headed and his business is best in class.
Kirby will bend to who ever is in charge of the country. Remember he bragged at the White House about his covid vaccine strategy with Biden and now he will flip flop and suck up to the convicted felon in the White House.
Well, there's plenty of oil being extracted in the USA and many people think authoritarianism there is on the rise, so I suppose that a state-subsidised airline could be a logical next step.
It only took hyper capitalism to turn USA into a communist state
As one prominent communist used to say 'it doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice'.
Are they gonna teach flight attendants that the call button isn't there "just for emergencies"? That would make them as superior compared to other US airlines as Emirates is compared to United.