Big picture, the cost of airfare has remained reasonable over the decades, as flying has been democratized thanks to the competitive landscape. However, admittedly there are some fluctuations, and we’re seeing one of those right now.
About a month ago I covered how data showed just how much airfare has increased in recent times. We’ve now see inflation data published for May 2026, and the situation has gotten worse, as we’ve seen the biggest single month jump in airfare in four years.
In this post:
Statistics on how the cost of airline tickets is increasing
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics has just published its latest consumer price index summary, showing how the cost of various goods has changed over time. The single biggest year-over-year increase we’re seeing is for airfare, which is up 26.7% compared to 12 months ago.
It goes without saying that this is a massive increase. Just to look at the numbers, the value for May 2026 was 260.319, while the value for May 2026 was 329.824 (these aren’t dollars, but instead, index values relative to 1982-1984, where the period is set to an index of 100).
If you prefer to see this in a graph, below you can see the fluctuations over the past 10 years.
As you can see, we’ve particularly seen an increase in airfare in the first five months of 2026:
- Between April and December 2025, airfare actually decreased, from a value of 255.592 to a value of 253.714
- We started 2026 with a value of 253.714, and over just five months, we’ve seen the value go to 329.824
- The situation is actually worse than the 26.7% increase over 12 months, as airfare has increased 30.0% over the past five months
Here’s how the methodology for determining this data is described:
Eligible for pricing are all regularly scheduled domestic and international commercial airline trips on certified carriers departing from each city in the CPI sample. For the selected cities that do not have a qualifying airport, the nearest city with a qualifying airport is designated as the city of departure.
Prices include all applicable taxes for both domestic and international travel. Fuel surcharges, airport, security, and baggage fees are also included. Eighty percent of quotes in the CPI sample are designated to include a checked bag on the flight. Whether a given quote is assigned a bag is randomly determined at quote initiation. The CPI only tracks the price of the first piece of checked luggage. The price of carry-on bags and any additional checked luggage are not tracked.
What can we make of these rapid airfare increases?
It goes without saying that the conflict with Iran has caused jet fuel prices to skyrocket. While the cost of airline tickets isn’t typically correlated that closely to the cost of actually transporting people (given the elasticity of demand), airlines have done an impressive job (from their perspective) raising fares to offset those increases. That’s particularly true of the legacy carriers.
But what I find interesting here is that the cost of airfare already started to increase drastically before that. Admittedly there’s some seasonal element to this, but still, these increases are material.
Everyone talks about the K-shaped economy, and that’s true in the airline industry more than anywhere. Premium demand seems to be insatiable, while airlines are having a harder time filling economy seats. Of course Spirit’s recent liquidation also won’t help with keeping airfare affordable, though those ticket costs were subsidized by shareholders and investors for far too long, so it just wasn’t sustainable.
United management has been very clear that they plan to keep around higher fares as much as possible even when oil prices decrease. As United CEO Scott Kirby recently admitted on an earnings call:
“Certainly, the longer this lasts, the higher the probability goes that the pricing increases hold. And we probably won’t hold 100% if we normalize as I told the team earlier today, and it’s just my guess that if things went back to mid-February normal, I think we get to keep 20% of the price increase next year. I think that’s going to move towards 80%. And every day, it’s ticking up longer as this goes on.”
But we also have Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy gaslighting consumers, claiming that high jet fuel prices will make tickets cheaper in the long run. Oh, and he says that all while United (which is promising investors to keep fares higher) is sponsoring his patriotic road trip.
Bottom line
The cost of airfare in the United States has increased 30% in the past five months. Obviously high oil prices partly fit into that, but the trend already started before the conflict with Iran (though that’s at least partly attributed to holiday travel).
The airline business is tough, and it’s understandable that airlines have to recoup some of the increased oil prices. However, airlines insist they plan to keep around these higher fares even when oil prices drop.
Usually I think people are a little dramatic about how expensive airfare is, because adjusted for inflation, it’s quite reasonable, big picture. Still, the increases at the moment are drastic, and there’s reason to be concerned. That’s especially true when you consider that only a small number of airlines are doing well, while others are suffering.
What do you make of this data about the increase in airfare costs?
Airlines operate on razor thin margins and in the US the US5 (including AS/HA) are buffeted by cc income. The others are trying to make a go of it by finding underserved routes, operating those 2-4 times a week and keeping costs, including cost of customer service uber low.
Despite what @1990 types from his mother's basement there is no excess to absorb increased fuel costs. Turns out flying complicated, hundred million dollar machines across the sky is expensive.
Is Sean Duffy exceptionally stupid, a fat orange Nazi fellator, or both?
Every time he opens his mouth, a combination of lies and pubes come flying out of his mouth.
Takes one to know one, yes?
Willy, that ‘guest’ is not me.
While lesser airlines continue to whine about "fuel costs," "airspace closures," and "basic economic reality," Delta Air Lines has announced that the Iran conflict is expected to increase annual profits by approximately $847 trillion, according to analysts who were last seen laughing uncontrollably.
"Many people assume higher fuel prices hurt airlines," explained Delta Chief Economist Dr. Tim Deucey Dunce. "What they fail to understand is that Delta benefits from all events. Good events. Bad events....
While lesser airlines continue to whine about "fuel costs," "airspace closures," and "basic economic reality," Delta Air Lines has announced that the Iran conflict is expected to increase annual profits by approximately $847 trillion, according to analysts who were last seen laughing uncontrollably.
"Many people assume higher fuel prices hurt airlines," explained Delta Chief Economist Dr. Tim Deucey Dunce. "What they fail to understand is that Delta benefits from all events. Good events. Bad events. Neutral events. Events that have not yet happened. We recently posted a strong quarter due to favorable cloud formations over Nebraska."
Industry observers note that jet fuel prices have indeed risen sharply during the conflict.
However, Delta's proprietary business model allegedly converts rising fuel prices into shareholder value through a complex process involving:
* Charging more.
* Continuing to charge more.
* Charging even more than that.
* Selling a "Fuel Appreciation Surcharge Surcharge."
* Charging passengers a "Congratulations On Finding A Seat" fee.
The airline has reportedly informed investors that every $1 increase in fuel costs results in:
* A $14 increase in fares.
* A $37 increase in premium cabin fares.
* A $92 increase in checked baggage fees.
* A $6,000 increase in the CEO's annual yacht budget.
Wall Street analysts have revised Delta's 2026 earnings forecast from "very good" to 'mathematically impossible."
One report projected that if the conflict continues for another six months:
* Delta's market capitalization could exceed global GDP.
* The airline will acquire three continents.
* The state of Georgia will become a wholly owned subsidiary.
* The moon will be rebranded "Delta SkyMoon™."
"People keep asking if higher fuel costs hurt Delta," said one aviation analyst. "That's outdated thinking. Delta benefits from high fuel prices. Delta benefits from low fuel prices. Delta benefits from stable fuel prices. Frankly, if fuel became free tomorrow, Delta would probably announce a special dividend."
Meanwhile, rival carriers have announced fare increases to offset higher costs.
Delta, however, has taken a different approach.
"We are pleased to announce our new strategic initiative," the airline said in a statement. "We will raise fares because fuel is expensive. If fuel becomes cheaper, we will raise fares because demand is strong. If demand weakens, we will raise fares to maintain yields. If neither occurs, we will raise fares to preserve consistency."
At press time, Delta stock had risen 4,700%, the CEO had been declared Emperor of Aviation, and economists were attempting to determine whether the airline now controlled the laws of physics.
LMAO!!!!!
This wins the internet for today. I take my hat off to you, sir.
Exceptional!
"No new wars..."
"Just two more weeks..."
*facepalm*
I'm glad you are covering this, Ben.
wages are not keeping up w/ even core inflation, let alone airfare inflation. The premium travel market is strong because the stock market continues to do very well which means alot of Americans are spending money they socked away years ago and which has done very well.
Many people don't appreciate how the current Middle East war is going to reshape not only the US' role in...
I'm glad you are covering this, Ben.
wages are not keeping up w/ even core inflation, let alone airfare inflation. The premium travel market is strong because the stock market continues to do very well which means alot of Americans are spending money they socked away years ago and which has done very well.
Many people don't appreciate how the current Middle East war is going to reshape not only the US' role in the world as the largest oil producer but an increasingly reliable supplier including of jet fuel to Europe and even parts of Asia - along w/ other petroleum products.
the counter to all of this is that rapidly increasing airfares - which have been fueled by NK's demise and the certainty that B6 can't survive into 2027 withough some sort of restructuring - will result in more and more government oversight and interference with the big 3 and esp. DL and UA. There is and will be ZERO appetite to allow either to acquire any more access to major airports as long as there is even a shred of evidence that a lower cost airline will step up to fill the gap.
UA's dreams of gaining access to JFK while touting that it is the largest airline in NYC could not be on shakier ground.
Not signs of a healthy economy, Tim. Unchecked corporate greed and extreme wealth inequity has led us astray. The deregulated market is failing consumers, which is why we need baseline passenger protections (like an EU261). Of course, had we actually embraced renewables and electrified ground-based transit years ago (instead of ceding a lot of ground to China), we wouldn't be held hostage as much by a volatile oil market right now... (even if our 'dear...
Not signs of a healthy economy, Tim. Unchecked corporate greed and extreme wealth inequity has led us astray. The deregulated market is failing consumers, which is why we need baseline passenger protections (like an EU261). Of course, had we actually embraced renewables and electrified ground-based transit years ago (instead of ceding a lot of ground to China), we wouldn't be held hostage as much by a volatile oil market right now... (even if our 'dear leader' decides to start new forever-wars.) Sure, some of this affects DL and UA (and NYC), but it much bigger.
first, I commend you for being able to engage in discussion w/ someone that you disagree with and do it civilly and without name-calling.
It speaks volumes about most of the other people that disagree and about you what you can do that they cannot.
second, the middle class is a relatively young development in the course of human civilization; it didn't exist for much of humanity and certainly not in pre-democracy periods and it...
first, I commend you for being able to engage in discussion w/ someone that you disagree with and do it civilly and without name-calling.
It speaks volumes about most of the other people that disagree and about you what you can do that they cannot.
second, the middle class is a relatively young development in the course of human civilization; it didn't exist for much of humanity and certainly not in pre-democracy periods and it still doesn't exist anywhere near to the same degree in most of the developing world as it exists in developed countries including Europe, parts of Asia, and the US and parts of Latin America.
third, investment income and wealth is a real and legitimate source of economic power; there is nothing that blocks people in most democracies from investing in financial markets.
but it takes discipline to not spend all you have and put money away. there are many young people that have decent investment accounts and will have the wealth and income that is fueling the huge premium travel boom in the west now.
next, China is one of the few large countries w/ a large number of million plus resident cities that has a viable nationwide rail system and that is partly because it is so much newer and they have no respect for personal property. India has some rail. Brazil has virtually none. the US made the decision during WWII - before the jet age - to build intercity transportation around highways and airports/airlines. Keep in mind that most of Europe was heavily bombed during WWII so they had a chance to start over w/ rail; the US did not. It is still not terribly common to use rail in Europe for distances over 500 miles in part because air travel is superior. The majority of US air travel is for distances over 1000 miles; trains are simply not viable for those trips.
and finally, as much as some would like to eliminate fossil fuels, there is no viable alternative to reliably power a modern global economy that involves people moving around their hometowns and the world and doing what they want at all hours of the day and night.
The US economy is delivering for some people but it does more for more people than for just about any other country.
as Ben accurately notes, the US economy is K shaped and there is more than enough demand to support strong air travel spending for the "half" that has the means to keep 4 strong nationwide carriers going along w/ a certain amount of low cost/ultra low cost carriers.
Wayne, from your missive one concludes that it is best read as an informed opinion piece from someone who follows the airline industry, not as a neutral factual analysis.
I would only offer you 5 out of 10, for content, accuracy of the information and presentation. Do try harder next time, yes?
Wayne, from your missive one concludes that it is best read as an informed opinion piece from someone who follows the airline industry, not as a neutral factual analysis.
I would only offer you 5 out of 10, for content, accuracy of the information and presentation. Do try harder next time, yes?
I post this again because Ben is allowing the gremlins to misappropriate logins once more.
Wayne, from your missive one concludes that it is best read as an informed opinion piece from someone who follows the airline industry, not as a neutral factual analysis.
I would only offer you 5 out of 10, for content, accuracy of the information and presentation. Do try harder next time, yes?
It is supply and demand. They can price their product at whatever price they believe people will pay. If they are right keep raising the price until you get pushback. These aren't charities, they should maximize revenue and profit. If people don't fly prices will go down. No airline is obligated to offer a "cheap" price just so you can fly - if you can't afford it that is your problem, not theirs.
I completely agree, there are too many poor people who fly anyway. Look at all those viral videos of people misbehaving, it's always poor people who are better staying in their trailers.
@ Retired Gambler -- I hear you, I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that premise? Airlines are businesses, and they can charge whatever people are willing to pay. But a 30% increase in five months hits a lot of consumers hard.
Maybe. But planes are still full. I would expect this trend to continue until they hit an inflection point and demand starts to roll back.
Retired Gambler... Oof, sane-washing Trump's insanity, moving-goal posts, and false equivalences, yet again. (You would not be saying any of that if it was a Democrat in the White House...)
Poor people don't deserve to live in Trump's world, good riddance, they're too lazy to make money anyway.
I would say, "you forgot the '/s'..." but I think you actually meant it, which tells us all we need to know about you... *smh*
endlessly funny how Trump has responded to the cost of living crisis by enacting tariffs and launching another pointless Middle East war, sending prices soaring. Just the worst possible response imaginable lmao
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