Qantas is a conservative airline, given the carrier’s limited long haul fleet. While it’s anyone’s guess if or when these routes will come to fruition, Qantas has revealed the next ultra long haul destinations that it hopes to serve.
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Qantas targeting three new long haul destinations
Qantas has this week revealed its updated strategy through 2030, as the airline moves from a recovery phase to a renewal and growth phase. Perhaps most interesting to passengers is that the airline has highlighted the three ultra long haul destinations most on its radar.
Qantas sees the biggest new potential opportunities for ultra long haul service as being for flights to Chicago (ORD), Seattle (SEA), and Paris (CDG).
There’s no timeline for this kind of service launching, since Qantas is heavily constrained in terms of its fleet. Here are a few general thoughts:
- For Chicago, I think it’s most likely we’ll see that route launched out of Brisbane, given that Sydney to Chicago is really pushing the range of the Boeing 787-9; that route was actually supposed to launch in 2020, but was canceled due to the pandemic
- For Seattle, I imagine it’s most likely that the route would be operated out of Sydney, as that’s well within range for the Boeing 787-9
- For Paris, I could see Qantas flying there from Perth using Boeing 787-9s, or if the airline waits for its Airbus A350-1000s, it could be flown nonstop from Sydney as well
Don’t expect these new routes anytime soon
As you’d expect, the biggest challenge standing in the way of Qantas growing is available aircraft. Qantas has historically been very conservative with its long haul fleet, and the airline also operates some ultra long haul flights that require quite a few “frames.”
Here’s Qantas’ current and future wide body fleet:
- Qantas has 10 Airbus A380s, which are progressively being brought back into service
- Qantas has 14 Boeing 787-9s, the last couple of which are being delivered in the coming weeks
- Qantas has 26 Airbus A330s (both -200s and -300s), plus two more are being leased from Finnair; these are used for domestic and short to medium haul international flights
- Qantas has 12 Airbus A350-1000s on order, which will be used to operate the world’s longest flights, from Sydney and Melbourne to New York and London, and beyond
Qantas has already announced quite some additional service for later this year, reflecting the added A380s, A330s, and 787s. Unless something changes, Qantas will only realistically be able to expand when it starts taking delivery of Airbus A350-1000s in 2025.
The catch is that the A350s will initially be used to operate all-new flights. However, over time it’s expected that some A350s will be put on existing routes, like Perth to London, opening up more 787s for other routes.
So while it’s possible that Qantas is able to squeeze in one of the above routes with a 3-4x weekly service in the coming years, I think it’ll be well beyond 2025 before we see regular service to two or more of the above destinations.
It’s worth noting that Qantas has even hinted at some other “Project Sunrise” destinations, including Miami (as much as I’d love for it to be true, I’m highly skeptical).
Bottom line
Qantas is considering adding flights to Chicago, Seattle, and Paris in the future. These are all destinations that have been hinted at (or even planned) in the past, though obviously the pandemic erased all progress that had been made.
I expect we’ll see Qantas launch routes to at least a couple of these destinations over the coming years, though I wouldn’t expect it to be anytime soon, given Qantas’ limited ultra long haul fleet. Fortunately the upcoming A350s should give Qantas a bit more opportunity to expand into new markets.
Which ultra long haul destination do you think Qantas will serve next?
Alan Joyce hates Brisbane Airport Corporation. The new runway has made landing fees very high as they have less than 7 years of the Runways opening to pay it off. In addition, disagreements with slots and also uncertainty with border closures made brisbane an unpredicatble market.
You forgot to mention that Qantas already announced Rome as the first European destination outside of London.
I’d want to see Qantas fly SYD-SEA, it’s a major Alaska Airlines hub, and would make a great feeder route for AS and the Pacific Northwest.
Just a small correction. As someone who's flown LAX-BNE a few times on the A330-200, there's no way I'd call that 14+ hr flight "medium haul"!
Nah, I wouldn’t call BNE-LAX medium haul. 7160 miles or 11500 km.
I flew the LHR-SYD route last year. (I think it stopped in DRW). It was interesting. I think it left at 9:30 pm, so you have dinner then have a nice flight. I've booked JFK-(AKL)-SYD in November just to try the route. DOH-AKL was better than DOH-(ADL)-AKL for sure. And of course QR service is terrific with Q-suites.
QF1 did indeed stop in Darwin for a few days before the pandemic and for a while after when Singapore hadn't yet opened up completely.
I agree with many of the comments about the desirability of more direct international routes.
However, Qantas is not a state run airline (though there are restrictions on foreign ownership) and has a responsibility to ensure returns to its shareholders like any other public company. It had returned to profitability very quickly after Covid.
Demand on international routes is extremely high as indicated by the price of Qantas airfares so there is limited incentive...
I agree with many of the comments about the desirability of more direct international routes.
However, Qantas is not a state run airline (though there are restrictions on foreign ownership) and has a responsibility to ensure returns to its shareholders like any other public company. It had returned to profitability very quickly after Covid.
Demand on international routes is extremely high as indicated by the price of Qantas airfares so there is limited incentive for aggressive route expansion. Add the Emirates tie up to that and although Qantas has a limited international fleet, it’s reach is significant.
I always wondered why they do the PER-FCO thing and not something like Paris or even London. My only explanation is the range, which is already at its limit for FCO and even more so for CDG. But FCO offers hardly any connectivity with their partners.
I don't think it's a range thing. Qantas has been operating PER to LHR for years now, and I don't think CDG will be a greater stretch in terms of range.
From my understanding the FCO seasonal route was chosen partially because of the large Italian diaspora in Australia. It's an opportunity for the nonnas to go and visit the old country with their families (a little like the Sicilian season of White Lotus)....
I don't think it's a range thing. Qantas has been operating PER to LHR for years now, and I don't think CDG will be a greater stretch in terms of range.
From my understanding the FCO seasonal route was chosen partially because of the large Italian diaspora in Australia. It's an opportunity for the nonnas to go and visit the old country with their families (a little like the Sicilian season of White Lotus). I am not sure how true that is, but that's what I am being told by people within QF.
There is a huge Italian population in Australia much bigger than French. The flight is seasonal and the load factor for last year (first season) was 90% plus. In this case QF does not need feeder traffic. There is talk of QF/AF doing a service from Australia to CDG likely city will be Perth, but QF continues it's fight with Perth Airport!
QF already flies PER-LHR.
This will pass for 'news' outside of Australia, but not in Australia itself. Local fliers can tell you that QF announcements, especially when they say they are "considering" something, or should I say 'anything' for that matter, must be taken with a pinch UNTIL you see it actually happen for real. Think I'm exaggerating? You can go back all the way to 2010 for QF's announced "planned", "upcoming", and "under consideration" routes and check how...
This will pass for 'news' outside of Australia, but not in Australia itself. Local fliers can tell you that QF announcements, especially when they say they are "considering" something, or should I say 'anything' for that matter, must be taken with a pinch UNTIL you see it actually happen for real. Think I'm exaggerating? You can go back all the way to 2010 for QF's announced "planned", "upcoming", and "under consideration" routes and check how many eventuated...Until those flights are locked into the system and open for booking, you can safely ignore these 'news' pieces.
It would be cool if they can do London to New York so you can fly around the world using Qantas.
Cool yes, but realistic, no. The era of that kind of thing is long gone.
Crewing such an endeavor would be a NIGHTMARE; and since modern aircraft have the range to do just about any viable route (except perhaps Japan to Brazil), most airlines have contracted their foreign crew bases (if indeed they have any) down to too low of a level to justify scheduled RTW operations anymore.
And that's not even mentioning codeshare options on alliance and other partners.
A 'NIGHTMARE', huh? Really? Reeeeeeaally?
Basic English 101: Hyperbole wrecks your credibility.
The problem w/ QF's strategy of pushing the newest generation aircraft to their limits is that they can't carry a full normal passenger load on a consistent basis and so they will have high unit costs on those flights.
Other airlines are using and will use new generation widebodies that have more seats in a "normal" configuration and, in many cases, lower labor costs as well. Connecting over their hubs is just not as...
The problem w/ QF's strategy of pushing the newest generation aircraft to their limits is that they can't carry a full normal passenger load on a consistent basis and so they will have high unit costs on those flights.
Other airlines are using and will use new generation widebodies that have more seats in a "normal" configuration and, in many cases, lower labor costs as well. Connecting over their hubs is just not as big of a deal on trips that are 7000-9000 miles as it is on intra-continental flights. Even business class travel has limits on how much carriers can charge on nonstop flights.
You need only look at the number of flights around the world that consistently break 16 hours and it is obvious there aren't many. Unlike Singapore, there are no reasonable connecting opportunities beyond Australia.
SYD-SEA and BNE-ORD make sense, as they would have a oneworld partner to tap into at SEA (AS) and ORD (AA) and ORD was, as mentioned, previously announced but never launched due to the pandemic.
I don't see SYD-MIA. Yes, there is connectivity to Latin America, but this feels like a wet dream than a realistic route.
QF served FRA previously, so this would be a route resumption. It operated via SIN until 2013 when it was axed.
Qantas actually operated SYD to ORD back in the day. I remember it vividly as I was on one of the first flights. It was discontinued shortly after - due to passenger demand I am assuming
I don't see SYD-MIA either. Qantas covers Latin America with its partnership with LATAM and both airlines operate between Australia and SCL and QF codeshares on some onward LATAM flights. I doubt O&D and the limited connecting traffic would justify QF using its own metal to MIA.
Qantas should also consider Toronto (YYZ), Canada and Frankfurt, Germany.
SEA is a no-brainer. OW west coast hub when AA is retreating from LAX.
SYD-MIA is shorter than SIN-NYC … so they don’t actually need the Project Sunrise aircraft to make this route work. Even if Airbus doesn’t have any slots to buy 350-900ULRs, they could pick up some 777-200LR’s off the scrap heap and operate that route if they wanted to…
Sea works with AS feed on a 789.
Agreed that Qantas needs at least another 10 787s right now.
Are there any older ones they could pick up second hand now to fill the gap?
Or they could lease some say A330s from anywhere and use those domestically, freeing up their existing A330s with the proper product to operate long-haul
Qantas has seriously backed themselves into a corner. Alan Joyce, being extremely profit driven and conservative has weakened Qantas's long haul fleet to the point that they don't have enough aircraft to serve all the destinations they want to. Australia by its geography needs to have a strong long haul airline presence. Qantas needs at least another 10-15 Dreamliners, but they missed out on slots. The A350-1000 ULR will be certified at the earliest in...
Qantas has seriously backed themselves into a corner. Alan Joyce, being extremely profit driven and conservative has weakened Qantas's long haul fleet to the point that they don't have enough aircraft to serve all the destinations they want to. Australia by its geography needs to have a strong long haul airline presence. Qantas needs at least another 10-15 Dreamliners, but they missed out on slots. The A350-1000 ULR will be certified at the earliest in 2025, but it is not nearly as versatile given its extremely heavy premium configuration. It is more a non-stop replacement for the one-stop A380 (to serve London, Los Angeles and NY) than a substitute for the Dreamliner.
Every airline is dealing with this issue right now. That is why you see so many wet lease operations right now. Narrow and wide body. Too many supply chain and technology errors means carriers aren't getting the planes they ordered and have held off retiring and scrambled to wet lease from all over.