For as long as I’ve lived in Miami (close to a decade), Miami International Airport (MIA) has been seeking a nonstop flight to North Asia, and in particular, to Tokyo. Now, we all want things, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to happen. However, local authorities seem to now be stepping up these efforts, and are even considering offering major incentives for such service.
Could American or Japan Airlines fly from Miami to Tokyo?
City and airport officials in Miami have long wanted a nonstop link between Miami and Tokyo. This would presumably be on either American or Japan Airlines, given that the former has a huge hub in Miami, and the latter is part of a joint business venture with American, meaning the airlines coordinate schedules and fares.
To incentivize this kind of service, Miami mayor Daniella Levine Cava is also evaluating the concept of a minimum revenue guarantee for an airline to operate the route, saying “the model functions by guaranteeing the airline a specific predetermined amount of revenue for a new route over a defined introductory period.”
Part of the new optimism seems to be based on a claim that Japan Airlines has better availability of long range jets, given the carrier’s upcoming aircraft deliveries. Airport officials plan to present the business case for this service during upcoming meetings targeted at joint business between Florida and Japan, and also at a conference dedicated to route development.
According to the mayor’s report, “direct flights from Miami would significantly enhance access to Japan and Northeast Asia, facilitating business travel, investment activities, and cultural and educational exchanges.” She went on to say that “most recently, JAL has begun taking delivery of new long-haul aircraft capable of operating nonstop service between Tokyo and MIA, with additional aircraft expected over the next two to three years, improving the long-term feasibility of the route.”
Miami Aviation Director Ralph Cutié stated that “we feel fairly confident that that’s going to happen,” but “we’re just not sure when,” though “it could be probably in the next couple of years.”
Around the same time last year, the airport released a report about the long haul destinations it’s most targeting, with the others including Asuncion, Riyadh, Singapore, and Tokyo. A Singapore route wouldn’t even be possible with any plane that currently exists. Meanwhile I’m sure Riyadh is realistic, since Saudi Arabia is throwing money at any new route to the city.
I’m not holding my breath for a Miami to Tokyo route
As someone who lives in Miami, I’d of course love to see a nonstop link to Tokyo. I’m not saying this is impossible, but I do think it’s not terribly likely, and I don’t think it’s any more likely than it was five years ago. To start, here are some of the challenges this route would face:
- This would be Japan Airlines’ longest route to the United States, and the economics of ultra long haul flying are complicated
- Miami is the major airport that’s most southeast in the United States, so it’s not great in terms of efficient domestic connections
- While the route could be popular with those connecting to Latin America, the challenge is that the United States doesn’t allow sterile transit, so passengers would need a visa just to transit the United States
- Those in Miami are largely already loyal to American or oneworld, so when they’re connecting to Japan, they’re pretty likely to fly with American or Japan Airlines; so there’s not necessarily all that much incremental business to win
That being said, I don’t think this route is impossible, especially if Miami is willing to offer an airline enough incentives to operate the service. Furthermore, Japan Airlines is taking delivery of some more planes in the coming years, and perhaps this could be part of a next wave of growth.
Florida is the state with the biggest economy that doesn’t have a nonstop flight to Japan. Furthermore, while international connections in Miami aren’t ideal, it’s still the best option for most people connecting to Latin America, given American’s huge network from there.
So yeah, if I were a betting man, I don’t think this will happen any time soon. I could see it happening some number of years down the road, though, when Japan Airlines does take delivery of many more new aircraft. But I can’t imagine this is among Japan Airlines’ top three new routes on the horizon.
Bottom line
Miami is once again (or still?) seeking a nonstop link to Japan. City and airport officials are hoping that American or Japan Airlines will launch the route, and are even looking at offering some sort of a revenue guarantee to make this service more appealing.
While I’d of course love to see a flight like this, I don’t think it’s necessarily any more likely than it was a few years ago. Officials point out how Japan Airlines is getting more wide body aircraft, though I expect it’ll be several more years before those lead to substantial incremental growth, rather than just fleet renewal. Meanwhile American’s long haul fleet growth is minimal.
What do you make of the prospects of a nonstop Miami to Tokyo route?
Given that Japan - US travel remains relatively stable year round (2025 Feb low is only ~75% of the passenger in 2025 Aug high; compared to ~40% of same time periods for EU - US travel), this could be any interesting way for AA to place a wide body outside the typical summer peak. Especially if incentives are there and cargo demand (although I imagine likely some payload restrictions). Those traveling for business between Japan...
Given that Japan - US travel remains relatively stable year round (2025 Feb low is only ~75% of the passenger in 2025 Aug high; compared to ~40% of same time periods for EU - US travel), this could be any interesting way for AA to place a wide body outside the typical summer peak. Especially if incentives are there and cargo demand (although I imagine likely some payload restrictions). Those traveling for business between Japan and Latin America are also more likely to already have or able to obtain US C or B-1 visas.
But like you said, not holding my breath on this materializing. Would bet AA launches another LHR from somewhere before this route.
The majority of the people going to/from Latin America and Japan are going to Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Peru. Brazil and Argentina can arguably served better through the Middle East or Europe- no transit visas required. Mexico is better served through the Texas hubs. In fact, the biggest Mexican markets that generate Japan and Asian traffic aren't served via Miami. Peru can work over Miami but it's just as easily served over Houston, LA, or...
The majority of the people going to/from Latin America and Japan are going to Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Peru. Brazil and Argentina can arguably served better through the Middle East or Europe- no transit visas required. Mexico is better served through the Texas hubs. In fact, the biggest Mexican markets that generate Japan and Asian traffic aren't served via Miami. Peru can work over Miami but it's just as easily served over Houston, LA, or even Australia/New Zealand, and a lot of traffic does go through Australia/New Zealand. So yes there's traffic to Latin America that can be served over Miami, but the biggest markets are already very well served.
There's already a MEX-NRT flight operated by NH.