Miami officials are pushing hard for a nonstop Tokyo flight, even floating revenue guarantees to lure American or Japan Airlines into launching the route.
The majority of the people going to/from Latin America and Japan are going to Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Peru. Brazil and Argentina can arguably served better through the Middle East or Europe- no transit visas required. Mexico is better served through the Texas hubs. In fact, the biggest Mexican markets that generate Japan and Asian traffic aren't served via Miami. Peru can work over Miami but it's just as easily served over Houston, LA, or even Australia/New Zealand, and a lot of traffic does go through Australia/New Zealand. So yes there's traffic to Latin America that can be served over Miami, but the biggest markets are already very well served.
Given that Japan - US travel remains relatively stable year round (2025 Feb low is only ~75% of the passenger in 2025 Aug high; compared to ~40% of same time periods for EU - US travel), this could be any interesting way for AA to place a wide body outside the typical summer peak. Especially if incentives are there and cargo demand (although I imagine likely some payload restrictions). Those traveling for business between Japan and Latin America are also more likely to already have or able to obtain US C or B-1 visas.
But like you said, not holding my breath on this materializing. Would bet AA launches another LHR from somewhere before this route.
What a treat for Ben, if it ever happens! All the years I lived in SoFla, I would’ve loved this (the one-stop itineraries were interesting; I recall connecting in ATL, taking DL’s old NW 744 to NRT.) Now based in NYC, I’m grateful for the multiple daily nonstops between NYC-TYO.
While I agree with your observation, JAL is quietly evaluating viability of Tokyo-Florida route with ZIPAir seasonal charter to Orlando. There seem to be limited but stable demands so ZIPAir will fly this on select days in Feb-Mar 2027.
Maybe Orlando gets direct regular Tokyo service ahead of Miami?