At a minimum, I think it’s safe to assume that Emirates will shortly be announcing service to a new Canadian destination…
In this post:
More service coming between Canada & UAE
Canada and the United Arab Emirates don’t have an Open Skies agreement, which would allow airlines to operate unlimited flights between participating countries. Instead the two countries have a bilateral air services agreement, and the number of frequencies has to be explicitly negotiated.
Emirates has been wanting to expand in Canada, but hasn’t been able to, due to lack of additional frequencies. Fortunately that will soon be changing.
It has been announced today that Canada and the United Arab Emirates have expanded their air services agreement, allowing airlines from each country to expand flights.
The expanded agreement will allow 21 flights per week for airlines from each country, which represents a 50% increase over the current cap of 14x weekly flights. It gets even better than that, though. In addition to the weekly frequency cap, there was previously a total seat cap, which further restricted frequencies. That has been lifted as part of this as well.
For context on current air service between Canada and the United Arab Emirates:
- Air Canada flies 7x weekly between Toronto (YYZ) and Dubai (DXB)
- Emirates flies 5x weekly between Dubai (DXB) and Toronto (YYZ)
- Etihad flies 6x weekly between Abu Dhabi (AUH) and Toronto (YYZ)
Air Canada has only been utilizing half of Canada’s allowed slots, while Emirates and Etihad have been utilizing all of the UAE’s allowed slots (they could only operate 11x weekly frequencies, due to the artificial seat cap, as the airlines fly A380s and 777s to Canada, respectively).
As a wild card, WestJet was granted slots in Dubai for a new service from Calgary, though there has been no formal announcement of that service launching.
What kind of new routes could we see?
What kind of new routes could we see between Canada and the United Arab Emirates? First of all, keep in mind that Air Canada’s Aeroplan program has a partnership with both Emirates and Etihad, and the commercial agreement with Emirates is definitely stronger. I suspect the closer ties between Air Canada and Emirates are part of the reason we’ve seen this air services agreement expanded.
The question is, which new routes could we see? There are several things at play, so here are a few thoughts:
- I think it goes without saying that Montreal (YUL) and Vancouver (YVR) are the next logical destinations out of the UAE
- Air Canada wasn’t previously maxed out with its UAE slots anyway, so in theory the airline didn’t need this expanded agreement to be able to add more flights; however, given that Air Canada’s partnership with Emirates recently launched, the timing makes sense for Air Canada to add flights
- On the UAE side, in theory the additional weekly slots will be split between Emirates and Etihad; the question is whether Etihad is even interested in these slots, given that the airline is much more conservative with growth than in the past
There are an endless number of ways this could play out, though presumably all of those scenarios involve service from Dubai to Montreal and/or Vancouver. Could we see Air Canada add flights to those cities? Could Emirates add daily service to one of those cities (that’s all that’s feasible)? Will Etihad want more slots in Canada, meaning Emirates wouldn’t be able to launch a daily service to another market?
I’m very curious to see how this plays out, as I’m sure at a minimum we’ll see a new Emirates route. My money would be on a Dubai to Montreal service, though I could also see it being Vancouver.
Bottom line
Canada and the United Arab Emirates have expanded their air services agreement, so we can now see 21 weekly flights between the countries for airlines from each country.
The UAE is gaining an additional seven weekly flights, so hopefully we see Emirates launch service to Montreal or Vancouver. I could also see Air Canada expanding to Dubai from one of those cities, given the carrier’s new alliance with Emirates.
What new routes do you think we’ll see between Canada and the UAE?
Great to see increased services between Canada and the UAE. Its taken over 30 years to get to this stage. Hopefully Air Canada will now invest in effective customer experience training for their cabin crew. Emirates operate to very high standards so Air Canada need to up their game. This is oone of the big advantages of Emirates increasing flights into Canada.
Qatar Airways has been seeking rights to YVR for over a decade for good reason, there is a large population of residents in the area who have their roots in India and Qatar is an excellent transfer point to all major centres in India.
Dubai provides the same opportunities for travellers to this country making Vancouver a prime choice for a new route. Qatar Airways will continue to be restricted to Montreal as their...
Qatar Airways has been seeking rights to YVR for over a decade for good reason, there is a large population of residents in the area who have their roots in India and Qatar is an excellent transfer point to all major centres in India.
Dubai provides the same opportunities for travellers to this country making Vancouver a prime choice for a new route. Qatar Airways will continue to be restricted to Montreal as their sole Canadian gateway. It is a shame as they have been voted the best airline by Skytrax for many years.
Patiently waiting on the Vancouver to Dubai route to be approved. That would save so much time to have one direct flight versus having to transit at Seattle. Hopefully this would also bring the new A380s and not use the 777ER which sole are dated.
If I’m not mistaken flights operated by airlines in the UAE ie Emirates including Turkish are allowed to fly over Russian airspace and Air Canada is not allowed. So our flights are longer..
Let’s protect Canadian carriers and not allow these airlines to fly here if they fly over Russian air space
Kenny
I'd say DXB and AUH to YUL is pretty much a given, considering Montreal has quite a lot of service to the Middle East and North Africa (by my count 7 airlines flying to 10 destinations). For YVR, it's not as big a market but since AC have discontinued their popular YVR-DEL service for the time being, there is a pretty large YVR to South Asia market that EK could take advantage of.
Question...
I'd say DXB and AUH to YUL is pretty much a given, considering Montreal has quite a lot of service to the Middle East and North Africa (by my count 7 airlines flying to 10 destinations). For YVR, it's not as big a market but since AC have discontinued their popular YVR-DEL service for the time being, there is a pretty large YVR to South Asia market that EK could take advantage of.
Question is, would it on a 380? Would be nice to see that at YVR again since BA and CZ will no longer fly it there.
Recently many Canadian invested and bought properties in Dubai, moreover in 2022 for the first time Canada became on top 10 tourists in Dubai. So all shows more demands xoming for this route.
It's extremely rich n ambitious for Emirates to want open skies policy w every country in the world like Canada n India!!!! Just look at size of UAE n Canada n it's just laughable
I can see Air Canada flying from vancouver to Dubai
Or Emirates flying from Dubai to Vancouver .
Calgary all the way. Emirates has wanted to fly into yyc for at least 10 years now and it will finally happen.
Guys, guys. I heard Emirates will be launching a new route to Yellowknife using the Airbus A380. They will be building a scissor hub there where they route their LAX, SFO, and SEA flights through it due to safety in case a plane goes tech in the Arctic. And there will be a Yellowknife Stopover program to take advantage of the huge boom in tourism to Yellowknife.
Yellowknife is incapabale of supporting an A380 at MTOW for a flight to Dubai. There would be significant payload restrictions that would make the routes unviable. Additionally, it would require a special sterile transit facility at YZF to enable a scissor hub as right now Canada would require those international passengers to clear immigration (and hence require visas for the relevant nationals). I doubt this could work easily in YZF, but a similar setup may...
Yellowknife is incapabale of supporting an A380 at MTOW for a flight to Dubai. There would be significant payload restrictions that would make the routes unviable. Additionally, it would require a special sterile transit facility at YZF to enable a scissor hub as right now Canada would require those international passengers to clear immigration (and hence require visas for the relevant nationals). I doubt this could work easily in YZF, but a similar setup may be more practical in Iqaluit (although runway limitations would still restrict payload).
Looks like you missed the joke there Sean M.
Lol I thought the joke was obvious
Why not Alberta, Edmonton draws in many international students to University Of Alberta.
Edmonton won't happen, they can barely sustain enough business for 1 flight to Europe. But as the article stated, they are penciling in potential rights for Westjet to potentially fly from Calgary, which could be interesting.
UAlberta student here, agreed. It takes atleast 3 flights to get to YEG unlike YYC/YVR/YEG/YYZ. Agreed, the other cities have more demand but only if there were more airlines serving YEG, life would be easier hahah
There have been rumours for many years that Emirates had been looking at a route to Moncton via Nice. I have my doubts that it will ever happen, but this is the best opportunity if they really want to make it so.
My guess would be that Air Canada and Emirates coordinate on the bilateral extension. I can see Air Canada taking the YVR route and Emirates taking the YUL route. No need for Emirates to cannibalize its already dwindling Seattle service after the loss of Alaska Airlines's feed. From sources in Montreal, it sounds like Emirates is already poking around for tenders from various handling groups. Most likely a 1 July start date with the importance...
My guess would be that Air Canada and Emirates coordinate on the bilateral extension. I can see Air Canada taking the YVR route and Emirates taking the YUL route. No need for Emirates to cannibalize its already dwindling Seattle service after the loss of Alaska Airlines's feed. From sources in Montreal, it sounds like Emirates is already poking around for tenders from various handling groups. Most likely a 1 July start date with the importance of the Canadian market to the UAE.
If Emirates and AC were to coordinate and allocate markets between themselves, this would probably result in multiple executives going to jail for violating competition law.
Not saying it won't happen that way, but explicit coordination between them would be highly illegal.
Both airlines EK and EY are limited to the number of seats they can bring into Canada which explains why they aren’t utilizing all their landing slots , dosent make business sense to operate half empty planes!
Since Qatar Airways flies to Montreal, there are many chances that Emirates will prefer to fly to Vancouver before launching Montreal.
Vancouver for sure.
The Dubai's...president? Leader? Royalty? Anyway, the main guy's son has a property in Vancouver that he absconds to regularly, so I could definitely see that being a route for EK
For some time it has been highly expected that Etihad is to launch Vancouver
Wouldn’t be surprised to see them go daily to Toronto and perhaps 4/5 weekly to Vancouver
Emirates likely to go daily to Toronto and launch Montreal 5 weekly or so
WestJet wanted daily Dubai-Calgary but was only given 3 weekly expect that to be revised
I'm surprised Emirates only flies 5x weekly to Toronto. Granted, PIA also has 5x weekly flights to YYC (and they have great load factors) so that takes away many of their target customers, and previously, Emirates didn't have much connectivity in Canada beyond YYC. With the AC and EK agreement, AC seems to have benefitted more with access to more destinations beyond DXB (and more frequencies, they used to only fly 5x weekly, matching EK's schedule).
PIA to Calgary?! Don't think so, WB.
Sorry, I meant YYZ (Toronto) for all of the times I wrote YYC.
Montreal would make sense for Emirates to compete with Qatar Airways. But they could also make Vancouver work, as they don't have competition from Qatar or Etihad. But Emirates already flies to Seattle, and I don't know if there is a bigger market in Western Canada (where AC can offer connections mostly pax from YYC and YVR anyways), or Montreal.
Although a few people are saying that both SEA and YVR are too much for EK, I agree that Vancouver could work. The area has a large South Asian population that only have the 1 Air India flight to DEL and otherwise have to connect via Europe or Asia. Also, TK flies to both YVR and SEA and seems to be making it work.
I mean its not just delhi. many indians are from other cities and would prefer to connect via Dubai as opposed to Delhi because connecting at Delhi would require one to complete immigration procedures and pick up luggages before the onward flight
Also, even if Air India increased its flight frequency between delhi and vancouver, only so many people want to travel Air India
Emirates already opened a dnata flight kitchen at YVR - safe to say it will be a new route for them soon.
The EK flights ex-SEA pre-pandemic were heavy with Canadian pax going to South Asia, and with Russian airspace closed to Air Canada I imagine EK could easily make YVR work.
Canada can have daily flights to Dubai and also Abu Dabhi operated by Aia Canada
Still not far enough.
Subsidizing AC with protectionism needs to end. Let the market rule. Canadians have put up with the utter garbage that is AC for way too long.
If Etihad takes up none of the new rights, perhaps they could do 5 weekly each to Montreal and Vancouver
I think we may not see new destinations from Emirates. Emirates may double the frequency of its YYZ service, given how popular it has been.
I think it may make sense for Etihad to add Montreal.
YVR has large ethnic minorities that could transit via DXB.
What large canadian city doesn’t
As someone living in Canada I like Sean's idea... Dubai to Moncton via Nice...makes perfect sense... The only hard part is getting to Moncton
My bet is on Montreal. Huge Middle Eastern community.
EK are holding recruitment fairs at Montreal and Winnipeg later this month they also did one in Vancouver late last year so will be interesting to see what transpires.
https://www.emiratesgroupcareers.com/cabin-crew/
As much as I'd love to see it be YVR, given that SEA already has a DXB flight, I'm not holding out any hope.
Although I think YVR will be lower priority than YUL and more YYZ flights, and may not happen immediately, I think there is potential. After all, Turkish Airlines serve both SEA and YVR for much of that same connection business heading to Africa, the Middle East and in particular to India.
How about Edmonton or Calgary?
Potentially Calgary with WestJet flying the route but I think a new Emirates route to one of the bigger hubs is more likely. YEG I don't see getting one of these routes at all.