For quite some time now, there have been rumors that United Airlines might be interested in buying JetBlue Airways. In March 2025, United CEO Scott Kirby even said that “JetBlue is the obvious candidate” for consolidation, and that “the ball is going to be in JetBlue’s court” when it comes to whether or not some sort of a deal happens.
The common wisdom has been that the reason that United hasn’t made a bid for JetBlue is due to concerns over regulatory approval. The two airlines launched a partnership last year, and it seemed like a “foot in the door” approach to closer cooperation.
Many airline executives believe that we’re going to see more industry consolidation soon, likely before the midterms. JetBlue is even reportedly actively looking at merger possibilities. However, in light of developments in recent days, I’d argue that this very moment is the ideal time for such a deal to be announced, in terms of maximizing odds of regulatory approval without too many concessions. Let me explain.
In this post:
United’s strong case for acquiring JetBlue right now
The government is reportedly nearing a deal to essentially acquire Spirit Airlines (to give them a loan, which will likely result in the government owning around 90% of the airline). This is President Trump’s idea, and it’s completely nonsensical, if you ask me. Officially, one of Trump’s major motives seems to be to avoid Spirit’s 14,000 employees losing their jobs, since the optics of that aren’t good.
Much like Spirit, JetBlue hasn’t turned a profit since before the pandemic. While the airline isn’t in as dire of a situation as Spirit, the company is slowly heading in the direction of Chapter 11 bankruptcy. That would almost certainly result in a downsizing of some sort, and likely job losses.
If you ask me, the pieces are really coming together here for a deal:
- United CEO Scott Kirby has spent the entirety of Trump’s second term sucking up to him, saying nothing but positive things about his leadership
- JetBlue executives should essentially argue that they can no longer compete in today’s market given how the industry has evolved, which is an argument that Spirit executives should’ve better made when the DOJ was suing to block the merger
- Kirby will frame this as a patriotic thing that helps Trump, as he’s going to protect those jobs, and ensure the United States’ “flag carrier” can continue to grow, continuing with his airline “trade deficit” narrative; keep in mind Trump is trying to blame Spirit’s failure on Biden, and how Biden’s DOJ blocked JetBlue’s takeover of the airline
- The current jet fuel situation obviously exacerbates JetBlue’s challenges, and Trump doesn’t want the optics of more airlines going bankrupt or liquidating under his watch, but instead Trump gets a “big deal,” which he loves
- We know Trump wants to buy Spirit and then resell it, so maybe United then even steps in and buys Spirit, building a mega hub in Fort Lauderdale (FLL), as we know a Florida hub has been of interest to United
I can’t imagine a more perfect storm of circumstances that would maximize the odds of this deal getting approved with minimal concessions.
Why I think a merger could be worth it, even with JetBlue’s debt
JetBlue has close to $8 billion in debt, so obviously that’s a major concern for any airline that will potentially acquire it. That being said, that amount of debt is nothing new, and despite that, Kirby has been very vocal about his interest in a possible deal with the airline.
The argument that “oh, just let JetBlue file for bankruptcy, and then other airlines can pick up the assets” doesn’t make sense, because JetBlue would be filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, rather than Chapter 7 liquidation. JetBlue’s assets wouldn’t suddenly become available. The airline might shrink and lay off people, but that’s different than going out of business.
But keep in mind that Kirby keeps talking about he wants United to essentially be the “national carrier” of the US, to be globally competitive. What JetBlue can bring to the table for United is unlocking three potentially lucrative markets (particularly with lots of credit card revenue):
- This would give United a huge presence in Boston (BOS), and allow the airline to overtake American, and go head-to-head against Delta
- We know United is interested in a Florida hub, and if United could get gates in Fort Lauderdale from both JetBlue and (possibly) Spirit, it could become a real competitor to American in South Florida (and you know what joy that would bring Kirby)
- And of course the holy grail for United is New York (JFK), which United is desperate to return to, as the airline doesn’t fly there; the biggest competitive question comes down to the extent to which regulators consider JFK and Newark (EWR) to be separate markets
Times have changed. It’s not like 2010, where the main strategic consideration with hubs was how far apart they were geographically. Now it’s also about markets with a lot of potential credit card spending, even if they’re geographically close to other hubs.
I also do actually think this deal would be in the best interest of the public, in terms of actually increasing competition. JFK is an incredibly valuable hub to have, but its value is largely lost on an airline like JetBlue, which primarily operates domestic flights. People don’t want to fly to Florida from JFK, they want to fly from New York LaGuardia (LGA). So JetBlue has a super valuable hub for a global airline like United, it’s just not utilizing it in a way that’s useful.
Anyway, I have no clue if a deal will or won’t happen. I do feel that if a deal were to happen, this very moment would be the ideal time. If nothing happens, then I think it’s safe to say that Kirby has either been bluffing all along, or has had a change of heart.
Bottom line
I don’t know if a deal will happen or not, but I couldn’t imagine a more perfect storm of circumstances when it comes to maximizing the odds of potential approval for United acquiring JetBlue. We’re at the point where the federal government is seriously considering buying Spirit, just to avoid layoffs.
If United CEO Scott Kirby really wants to buy JetBlue, logically I’d expect we’ll see something very soon. If we don’t see something, I suspect he had a change of heart or was just bluffing.
Is my theory totally off base, or where do you stand on this?
re: B6/NK merger: When you have one fifty-pound pile of horse crap and combine it with another fifty-pound pile of horse crap, you get nothing other than a one hundred pound pile of horse crap that stinks worse than either pile separately. It was intelligent for the Biden Administration to block it, because this one hundred pound pile of horse crap would have declared Chapter 7 approximately nine months ago.
for once, I mostly agree with you.
The US government is only interested in the appearance of competition and not having high profile companies fold.
If they facilitate financing while someone else gets a crack at turning NK around, then they have succeeded at their goals.
When no one else is willing to put any money into NK, then that is when it shuts down.
As much as some people want to believe that everyone...
for once, I mostly agree with you.
The US government is only interested in the appearance of competition and not having high profile companies fold.
If they facilitate financing while someone else gets a crack at turning NK around, then they have succeeded at their goals.
When no one else is willing to put any money into NK, then that is when it shuts down.
As much as some people want to believe that everyone that could turn NK around has tried and failed, the fact that NK stuck around as long as it did says there is money that believes they can execute a turnaround and make money in the process. That may or may not happen if the administration pushes a package out to NK and a new potential investor.
the same thing will play out for B6 undoubtedly in the fall when midterms are even closer.
too many people have tried to believe that US airline consolidation would be at its pinnacle - if not only involving - B6 and UA and yet the last two major newspieces have shown that people have been wrong about the free willing consolidation that many thought the current administration would allow.
News that NK will likely get some government backing and some investor that is willing to take the company off of the US...
too many people have tried to believe that US airline consolidation would be at its pinnacle - if not only involving - B6 and UA and yet the last two major newspieces have shown that people have been wrong about the free willing consolidation that many thought the current administration would allow.
News that NK will likely get some government backing and some investor that is willing to take the company off of the US means that the US is not willing for high profile companies like NK to fail or be acquired. That will be even more so for B6.
The notion that the US would allow either DL or UA to grow through acquisition in NYC or BOS esp. was always fatally flawed from an antitrust perspective even though the UA chorus has tried to argue that EWR and JFK/LGA are separate markets.
and it is very possible - if not likely - that new B6 mgmt will scrap the B6/UA partnership that might have given UA slots at JFK; it never made sense for B6 to give up slots at its largest hub to a competitor that has specifically stated they will start flights that will directly compete with B6 which is already scrapping for revenue and profits.
and the AA/AS JV goals have probably been run by someone in the administration and can be supported because it does not involve eliminating a carrier and combines even on a limited basis two weaker carriers on the west coast and in the US market w/o a merger.
and from a financial standpoint, B6' debt IS and will be a problem for the carrier regardless of whether B6 remains as a standalone company or merges with someone else. But AA is deeply indebted and they remain in business anyway. The US government does not care if airlines are profitable; they do care if they can keep flying and keep prices low. B6 can do that w/ the right leadership.
I suspect 2 years from now UA will not be at JFK, B6 will be independent and there will be marketing partnerships but not consolidation in the US industry.
“Trump is trying to blame Spirit’s failure on Biden, and how Biden’s DOJ blocked JetBlue’s takeover of the airline” speaks to how stupid Trump is. Tying two loss-making, undercapitalized airlines together is like tying together two heavy rocks together and thinking they will “float” well together when thrown into the water.
Of course, the war with Iran is Biden's fault. As well as the economy. As well as the market tanking last year. As well as the Patriots losing the Super Bowl. As well as a friend's cat dying. As well as anything else you can think of. (Humor intended.)
Wall Street doesn’t care about extra spots at JFK when it comes with a huge burden of debt. United stock has done exceptionally well the past few years pushing FCF, great margins and low debt. Extra slots at JFK and a Florida hub might be good airline business but they’ll do nothing for the stock. Look at the price of $JBLU since Kirby started talking 18 months ago, it’s moved on Oil, not any M&A...
Wall Street doesn’t care about extra spots at JFK when it comes with a huge burden of debt. United stock has done exceptionally well the past few years pushing FCF, great margins and low debt. Extra slots at JFK and a Florida hub might be good airline business but they’ll do nothing for the stock. Look at the price of $JBLU since Kirby started talking 18 months ago, it’s moved on Oil, not any M&A potential, basically the street says this isn’t happening.
Meanwhile $UAL buying $AAL as a rumor did wonders for both. $JBLU is a smoke screen for $AAL. Buying $AAL would give United monopoly like power, exactly why you push Trump right now.
Are United’s BoD members and shareholders so stupid as to assume that a combined United+American won’t be broken up sooner or later out of competition concerns?
Roger says, "Wall Street doesn’t care about extra spots at JFK when it comes with a huge burden of debt. United stock has done exceptionally well the past few years pushing FCF, great margins and low debt."
UA has 700 aircraft on order and says it prefers organic growth. UA only needs and wants enough gates/slots to enable transcons to/from LAX & SFO. In this case second mover is the preferred position in the next...
Roger says, "Wall Street doesn’t care about extra spots at JFK when it comes with a huge burden of debt. United stock has done exceptionally well the past few years pushing FCF, great margins and low debt."
UA has 700 aircraft on order and says it prefers organic growth. UA only needs and wants enough gates/slots to enable transcons to/from LAX & SFO. In this case second mover is the preferred position in the next round of consolidation. Much depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
There’s no way that gets approved. I think the jetblue acquisition is already priced in. People don’t expect united to get a substantial premium - but the market responds to oil eroding their cash position even faster.
UA stock has been the worst performing of the big 3 stocks over the past month that have included merger talk and earnings reports.
the notion that the government will support monopolies in the airline industry is flatly opposite of reality based on recent news events (see above)
UA will be forced to organically grow - which is what DL has done over the past 15 years or slow its growth dramatically.
I suspect...
UA stock has been the worst performing of the big 3 stocks over the past month that have included merger talk and earnings reports.
the notion that the government will support monopolies in the airline industry is flatly opposite of reality based on recent news events (see above)
UA will be forced to organically grow - which is what DL has done over the past 15 years or slow its growth dramatically.
I suspect that we will see a much newer UA fleet in the next 5 years because they will be forced to retire alot of older aircraft and their regional fleet shrinks as growth decreases even as massive domestic mainline aircraft keep being delivered.
You seem like a very unhappy man.
While I appreciate your passion for Delta, I urge you to go outside and get away from your computer.
All the best.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see United try to buy some JFK gate and terminal space — probably along with lounge access/space — from JetBlue. Perhaps it may even be more, perhaps even also a version of the disallowed partnership AA and JetBlue had.
What JFK needs are additional runways. LAX style.
Bluff, hype, hooplah, grifting, lying, cheating, stealing, smashing and grabing… it’s 2026.