For quite some time now, there have been rumors that United Airlines might be interested in buying JetBlue Airways. In March 2025, United CEO Scott Kirby even said that “JetBlue is the obvious candidate” for consolidation, and that “the ball is going to be in JetBlue’s court” when it comes to whether or not some sort of a deal happens.
The common wisdom has been that the reason that United hasn’t made a bid for JetBlue is due to concerns over regulatory approval. The two airlines launched a partnership last year, and it seemed like a “foot in the door” approach to closer cooperation.
Many airline executives believe that we’re going to see more industry consolidation soon, likely before the midterms. JetBlue is even reportedly actively looking at merger possibilities. However, in light of developments in recent days, I’d argue that this very moment is the ideal time for such a deal to be announced, in terms of maximizing odds of regulatory approval without too many concessions. Let me explain.
In this post:
United’s strong case for acquiring JetBlue right now
The government is reportedly nearing a deal to essentially acquire Spirit Airlines (to give them a loan, which will likely result in the government owning around 90% of the airline). This is President Trump’s idea, and it’s completely nonsensical, if you ask me. Officially, one of Trump’s major motives seems to be to avoid Spirit’s 14,000 employees losing their jobs, since the optics of that aren’t good.
Much like Spirit, JetBlue hasn’t turned a profit since before the pandemic. While the airline isn’t in as dire of a situation as Spirit, the company is slowly heading in the direction of Chapter 11 bankruptcy. That would almost certainly result in a downsizing of some sort, and likely job losses.
If you ask me, the pieces are really coming together here for a deal:
- United CEO Scott Kirby has spent the entirety of Trump’s second term sucking up to him, saying nothing but positive things about his leadership
- JetBlue executives should essentially argue that they can no longer compete in today’s market given how the industry has evolved, which is an argument that Spirit executives should’ve better made when the DOJ was suing to block the merger
- Kirby will frame this as a patriotic thing that helps Trump, as he’s going to protect those jobs, and ensure the United States’ “flag carrier” can continue to grow, continuing with his airline “trade deficit” narrative; keep in mind Trump is trying to blame Spirit’s failure on Biden, and how Biden’s DOJ blocked JetBlue’s takeover of the airline
- The current jet fuel situation obviously exacerbates JetBlue’s challenges, and Trump doesn’t want the optics of more airlines going bankrupt or liquidating under his watch, but instead Trump gets a “big deal,” which he loves
- We know Trump wants to buy Spirit and then resell it, so maybe United then even steps in and buys Spirit, building a mega hub in Fort Lauderdale (FLL), as we know a Florida hub has been of interest to United
I can’t imagine a more perfect storm of circumstances that would maximize the odds of this deal getting approved with minimal concessions.
Why I think a merger could be worth it, even with JetBlue’s debt
JetBlue has close to $8 billion in debt, so obviously that’s a major concern for any airline that will potentially acquire it. That being said, that amount of debt is nothing new, and despite that, Kirby has been very vocal about his interest in a possible deal with the airline.
The argument that “oh, just let JetBlue file for bankruptcy, and then other airlines can pick up the assets” doesn’t make sense, because JetBlue would be filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, rather than Chapter 7 liquidation. JetBlue’s assets wouldn’t suddenly become available. The airline might shrink and lay off people, but that’s different than going out of business.
But keep in mind that Kirby keeps talking about he wants United to essentially be the “national carrier” of the US, to be globally competitive. What JetBlue can bring to the table for United is unlocking three potentially lucrative markets (particularly with lots of credit card revenue):
- This would give United a huge presence in Boston (BOS), and allow the airline to overtake American, and go head-to-head against Delta
- We know United is interested in a Florida hub, and if United could get gates in Fort Lauderdale from both JetBlue and (possibly) Spirit, it could become a real competitor to American in South Florida (and you know what joy that would bring Kirby)
- And of course the holy grail for United is New York (JFK), which United is desperate to return to, as the airline doesn’t fly there; the biggest competitive question comes down to the extent to which regulators consider JFK and Newark (EWR) to be separate markets
Times have changed. It’s not like 2010, where the main strategic consideration with hubs was how far apart they were geographically. Now it’s also about markets with a lot of potential credit card spending, even if they’re geographically close to other hubs.
I also do actually think this deal would be in the best interest of the public, in terms of actually increasing competition. JFK is an incredibly valuable hub to have, but its value is largely lost on an airline like JetBlue, which primarily operates domestic flights. People don’t want to fly to Florida from JFK, they want to fly from New York LaGuardia (LGA). So JetBlue has a super valuable hub for a global airline like United, it’s just not utilizing it in a way that’s useful.
Anyway, I have no clue if a deal will or won’t happen. I do feel that if a deal were to happen, this very moment would be the ideal time. If nothing happens, then I think it’s safe to say that Kirby has either been bluffing all along, or has had a change of heart.
Bottom line
I don’t know if a deal will happen or not, but I couldn’t imagine a more perfect storm of circumstances when it comes to maximizing the odds of potential approval for United acquiring JetBlue. We’re at the point where the federal government is seriously considering buying Spirit, just to avoid layoffs.
If United CEO Scott Kirby really wants to buy JetBlue, logically I’d expect we’ll see something very soon. If we don’t see something, I suspect he had a change of heart or was just bluffing.
Is my theory totally off base, or where do you stand on this?
Regardless of Govt crap. Here's something to think about:
Lufthansa used to own a 15% stake in B6 which they divested about ten years ago.
Conceivably, UA and LH could buy B6. Star Alliance only has one US airline in it. UA and B6 already have a strong partnership so adding another US airline would be beneficial - especially with so many Star Alliance members flying into JFK - there's no domestic feeder...
Regardless of Govt crap. Here's something to think about:
Lufthansa used to own a 15% stake in B6 which they divested about ten years ago.
Conceivably, UA and LH could buy B6. Star Alliance only has one US airline in it. UA and B6 already have a strong partnership so adding another US airline would be beneficial - especially with so many Star Alliance members flying into JFK - there's no domestic feeder flights for SA members. UA doesn't have to fully absorb B6 - just buy it or majority buy it and run it as a wholly owned (partially owned) subsidiary. Sort of what AS did with HA......
Would delta go after Avelo and Frontier if United buys JetBlue?
I think that JetBlue has assets that United wants. I agree with the step-by-step approach as it would more likely get approved in the end. It's too bad UA points can't yet be used on Jetblue though.
Could Kirby do a Debtor in Possession with B6? Somewhat like AA did with TWA in 2001?
Would be interesting to see the difference between the market value versus face value of B6 debt.
I think UA learned their lesson in South Fla with their Miami hub attempting to take on AA to Latin Am. Failed within a couple of years. UA could not get traction in the South Fla market.
If they move on JetBlue and take on FLL, I feel sure the Caribbean and LatAm markets will go away. Most are low yield out of FLL and are not a good option for UA.
"the biggest competitive question comes down to the extent to which regulators consider JFK and Newark (EWR) to be separate markets" Dunno. Living in NYC these are basically the same market. I guess if you are out in long Island/parts of Brooklyn or Queens JFK has more appeal and if you are in staten island/NJ EWR works better, but for many of us JFK/EWR its not a massive difference it comes more down to schedule...
"the biggest competitive question comes down to the extent to which regulators consider JFK and Newark (EWR) to be separate markets" Dunno. Living in NYC these are basically the same market. I guess if you are out in long Island/parts of Brooklyn or Queens JFK has more appeal and if you are in staten island/NJ EWR works better, but for many of us JFK/EWR its not a massive difference it comes more down to schedule of international flights. LGA is very much preferred for local flights for many in NYC specifically Manhattan/Bronx and parts of Queens and southwestern CT. Really hard to say they are completely different markets though.
At first glance the gov investing in Spirit seems off. But, that would not be the first time the gov has done that. So, it should not be a “surprise” nor “feel off” to anyone. Obama bailed the banks out. Obama, GW Bush and Jimmy Carter all bailed Chrysler out and the U.S. Gov made money on 2 of the 3 bail outs. GM was bailed out as was Lockheed. American Airlines was bailed out...
At first glance the gov investing in Spirit seems off. But, that would not be the first time the gov has done that. So, it should not be a “surprise” nor “feel off” to anyone. Obama bailed the banks out. Obama, GW Bush and Jimmy Carter all bailed Chrysler out and the U.S. Gov made money on 2 of the 3 bail outs. GM was bailed out as was Lockheed. American Airlines was bailed out as recently as 2020.
When it comes to jobs or to industries that are in the national interest, it should no longer be a surprise. 14,000 jobs at Spirit would be a candidate for gov intervention regardless whos in the Oval Office
United does not need a FLL hub. Since when has FLL been considered a high yield market? United doesn’t need JetBlue’s debt that’s too much for an airline to take on right now. The only thing they wanted really from JetBlue is JFK gates which they have already gotten. Expanding majorly at JFK when United already has Newark would be considered a monopoly and an unfair advantage.
no, UA hasn't gotten anything at JFK other than a pinky promise that B6 might renege on as soon as someone else takes control of the airline and makes them realize there is no basis for letting a competitor into any of B6' top markets.
your final sentence is accurate which is why it likely won't happen.
United doesn’t strike me as the type of airline that takes deals lightly so I’m sure if JetBlue didn’t in fact give the gates. Lawsuit…
feel free to let us know where those gates are.
You can't just give gates to someone without using them which UA most certainly is not doing at JFK
LTD says, "feel free to let us know where those gates are."
JFK T6 starting next year with the A321neo "Coastliners' with 20 lie-flat suites not 44 recliners (DL). Here's the press statement.
JetBlue will provide United access to slots at JFK International Airport for up to seven daily round-trip flights beginning in 2027; JetBlue and United will exchange eight flight timings at Newark Liberty International Airport.
https://www.united.com/en/us/newsroom/announcements/cision-125389
LTD says, "feel free to let us know where those gates are."
JFK T6 starting next year with the A321neo "Coastliners' with 20 lie-flat suites not 44 recliners (DL). Here's the press statement.
JetBlue will provide United access to slots at JFK International Airport for up to seven daily round-trip flights beginning in 2027; JetBlue and United will exchange eight flight timings at Newark Liberty International Airport.
https://www.united.com/en/us/newsroom/announcements/cision-125389
They will be with the agreement they made with JetBlue. That’s literally the only reason they care about JetBlue. No ones gives a flying f about FLL.
some of you including rebel can't grasp or accept that B6 is very fragile financially and there very well could be other parties that can do more for B6 than UA- even before getting into antitrust issues.
If WN or NK or a private investor thinks they can do more for B6 than the contract UA has with B6, the UA agreement is in the trash.
I wonder if UA anticipated that there might be such a B6 transaction and included a proviso to deal with such an eventuality?
kinda like Kirby planned for the DOT to intervene and cap the number of flights at EWR, ORD, and SFO?
Someday you'll accept the reality that UA is actually pretty poor at strategic planning esp. when it comes to competition - in large part because Kirby and kompany blab incessantly about taking out all of the competition while touting that UA is the largest airline in the universe.
The ability to read the room is nowhere in Kirby's gifting.
You obviously missed the last ten years and even the last quarter's earnings.
I missed nothing
UA gets the best improved award = but not is NOT a financial leader in the industry.
Some day, you'll accept that reality
It must be tiresome being you. Honest to god.
Agree but Newark is also super constrained and I remember hearing that the FAA wanted to reduce the number of flights out of EWR. So conceivably this could be alleviated with more gates/ flights out of JFK.
For the sake of having a stronger 4th carrier would love to see AS take over Jetblue.
When has anyone from United ever stated that they want a Florida hub? Also, Fort Lauderdale as a hub for a legacy carrier with the costs of United is beyond laughable.
There may be back room dealing going on. United would have to understand what they might need to give up for an acquisition approval and ultimately is it worth it. Both parties coming to an agreed upon price and conditions. And the egos and the lawyers that get in the way.
Within the next few months we will see announcement of an acquisition agreement or that both parties have gone their separate way.
JetBlue could also be talking to other suitors.
WN has people that are supposedly talking to B6
WN makes far more sense as an acquirer or partner to B6 than UA does
UA is the last of all possible partners for B6; the only reason that it gets so much attention is because UA and its fans are driven by their need to dominate markets where they are already strong.
How often do the UA fans yap about being #1 in NYC?...
WN has people that are supposedly talking to B6
WN makes far more sense as an acquirer or partner to B6 than UA does
UA is the last of all possible partners for B6; the only reason that it gets so much attention is because UA and its fans are driven by their need to dominate markets where they are already strong.
How often do the UA fans yap about being #1 in NYC? at the same time they try to argue that EWR is a different market than LGA and JFK - as part of their justification for the "need" for UA to save B6.
The only need UA has is to accept that some decisions - even if made over a decade ago - have consequences that may not ever be fixed
You’re making up stories at this point cause you know UA will really challenge your precious DL. WN isn’t happening, I know this for sure. WN fleet and network won’t work in jfk as a major globally international airport. They will waste billions to then get shellacked by competition. Just like WN in atl. They can barely adopt to assigned seating they will take on an airline with 2 different fleet types, network, it, clientele,...
You’re making up stories at this point cause you know UA will really challenge your precious DL. WN isn’t happening, I know this for sure. WN fleet and network won’t work in jfk as a major globally international airport. They will waste billions to then get shellacked by competition. Just like WN in atl. They can barely adopt to assigned seating they will take on an airline with 2 different fleet types, network, it, clientele, product hard and soft, etc. WN has a few hundred orders of airplanes. Buying b6 will destroy WN and makes zero sense. Thus why there is nothing happening
Are they waiting to wrap up new union contracts first?
Living on the east coast, I wish Alaska Airlines bought JetBlue.
by dragging this process out, the government might be giving AS time to do that when they are in a better position in a few years.
They still will have a dumbbell shaped network but will have a very strong position on both coasts.
If AS/B6 happens, it will probably be at the cost of the AA/AS JV or the ability to expand it to the east coast.
@Tim, name one merger of an East/West coast airline consolidation, without a mid continent hub that was successful.
AS and B6 merging would be a disaster. Just ask USAir and PSA. American and AirCal/Reno Air. PEOPLExpress and Frontier,
I don't disagree - but the problem is that there are no combinations that don't involve the big 4 - which have mid-continent hubs.
AA and AS might be able to come up w/ a JV that can survive an AS/B6 merger but an AA/AS JV might provide the mid-continent hubs (ORD/DFW) to support an AS/B6 merger.
I doubt if an AA/AS JV would cover all of their combined networks anyway for competititve reasons.
Ricky says, "Living on the east coast, I wish Alaska Airlines bought JetBlue."
LTD says, "I have never supported consolidation for AA or DL in their heavily concentrated markets so my stance is hardly pro or anti any big 4 carrier."
"I don't disagree - but the problem is that there are no combinations that don't involve the big 4."
"The government is reportedly nearing a deal to essentially acquire Spirit Airlines (to give them a loan, which will likely result in the government owning around 90% of the airline). This is President Trump’s idea, and it’s completely nonsensical, if you ask me."
Hey @Lucky,
Just last year, Trump pushed for major changes at Intel, and helped broker a deal which gave the US Government 433 million shares around $20. The stock just hit $82...
"The government is reportedly nearing a deal to essentially acquire Spirit Airlines (to give them a loan, which will likely result in the government owning around 90% of the airline). This is President Trump’s idea, and it’s completely nonsensical, if you ask me."
Hey @Lucky,
Just last year, Trump pushed for major changes at Intel, and helped broker a deal which gave the US Government 433 million shares around $20. The stock just hit $82 this morning. Maybe chill out a bit with the whole everything Trump touches is bad rhetoric for a brief second if possible.
as I have noted, the US government has made money from loaning to US airlines, many of whom still have covid loans.
There are a lot of dumb things the government does under both parties but being the lender of last resort and making deals that ultimately benefit taxpayers while maintaining competition is something that should happen and likely will continue to happen.
The government made a negligible return on the loans, but the Covid grants were $54b to passenger airlines and another $9b to cargo carriers and contractors. About $14b of the grants were repaid so a $49b net loss for the USA.
and those loans are still on the books of most airlines, accruing interest.
You do realize your dearly below still has $3.2 billion of covid loans on its books? That was cheap money when it was issued but becomes alot more expensive this year and beyond - 5 years after covid.
We realize you desperately want to believe that everyone and everything should bow to UA's "need" to get back into JFK by acquiring B6...
and those loans are still on the books of most airlines, accruing interest.
You do realize your dearly below still has $3.2 billion of covid loans on its books? That was cheap money when it was issued but becomes alot more expensive this year and beyond - 5 years after covid.
We realize you desperately want to believe that everyone and everything should bow to UA's "need" to get back into JFK by acquiring B6 but there isn't a single objective data point that says doing so would be good for anyone other than UA
and all it would do is create an environment in which consolidation of other big 4 airlines in their strength markets has to be allowed which would make it far worse for everyone except those big 4 airlines.
Consolidation among the big 4 will be allowed only as the very last resort and the government's willingness to prop up airlines now - just as they did in covid - all but eliminates the likelihood of a B6/UA merger and might even make the proposed JFK slot/ EWR timing swap unlikely to happen.
No airline is going to succeed
LTD says, "You do realize your dearly below still has $3.2 billion of covid loans on its books?"
Not sure to whom you are referring. JBLU still owes some $, UAL paid theirs back long ago. DAL got fined $8m for misusing a portion for executive compensation.
WRT UA, JFK and "bowing" it's obviously emotional for you. I actually don't think UA will buy JB, but nobody knows what will happen. I do think UA...
LTD says, "You do realize your dearly below still has $3.2 billion of covid loans on its books?"
Not sure to whom you are referring. JBLU still owes some $, UAL paid theirs back long ago. DAL got fined $8m for misusing a portion for executive compensation.
WRT UA, JFK and "bowing" it's obviously emotional for you. I actually don't think UA will buy JB, but nobody knows what will happen. I do think UA will get the gates/slots they need for LAX/SFO transcons with no "bowing" required on anyone's part.
incorrect.
UAL's last 10K shows they still have:
PSP Notes (c) 2030 — 2031 (due) 1.00% — 5.93% (interest rate) $3,181 million.
there is nothing emotional in grasping that further consolidation involving the big 4 is highly problematic and should only be done where no other alternative exists and where there is no concentration in major markets.
YOU and your ilk are the ones that think that UA is the only or best...
incorrect.
UAL's last 10K shows they still have:
PSP Notes (c) 2030 — 2031 (due) 1.00% — 5.93% (interest rate) $3,181 million.
there is nothing emotional in grasping that further consolidation involving the big 4 is highly problematic and should only be done where no other alternative exists and where there is no concentration in major markets.
YOU and your ilk are the ones that think that UA is the only or best alternative and also choose to ignore how uncompetitive it would be for UA to combine or cooperate in any way w/ a carrier where it is already the top 2 or better - and that includes NYC.
And I have never supported consolidation for AA or DL in their heavily concentrated markets so my stance is hardly pro or anti any big 4 carrier.
The emotion is all yours
Let's see how your "thoughts" play out.
It is very possible that UA will be in the same position in 3 years as they are now- shut out of JFK and dominant at EWR which is the least desirable of the big 3 airports based on short haul and longhaul traffic; the former favors LGA and the latter favors JFK - which is precisely why Kirby wants back into JFK, something former UA mgmt didn't think mattered.
LTD says "I have never supported consolidation for AA or DL in their heavily concentrated markets"
Nobody cares what you 'support', but it is obvious you know how advantageous it will be for UA. So emotional. UA getting enough JFK gates/slots for LAX/SFO transcons won't raise any anti-trust or regulatory issues whatsoever.
LTD says, "PSP Notes (c) 2030 — 2031 (due) 1.00% — 5.93% (interest rate) $3,181 million."
I stand corrected. Great interest rates!...
LTD says "I have never supported consolidation for AA or DL in their heavily concentrated markets"
Nobody cares what you 'support', but it is obvious you know how advantageous it will be for UA. So emotional. UA getting enough JFK gates/slots for LAX/SFO transcons won't raise any anti-trust or regulatory issues whatsoever.
LTD says, "PSP Notes (c) 2030 — 2031 (due) 1.00% — 5.93% (interest rate) $3,181 million."
I stand corrected. Great interest rates! No wonder they still have them on the books. UA will likely pay those off as the rate rises with some of their $14b in cash/equivalents.
Hey George Constanza fan, you’re seriously comparing Intel to Spirit?!
Trump will make the U.S. taxpayers a fortune with the Spirit deal. The TDS folks will need to up their Xanax dose.
As a Million Miler / 1K on UA I would prefer JetBlue combo than AA.
JetBlue's all Airbus fleet would compliment well with united's narrow body plan especially for the new CA/NY PS service as well as narrow body premium heavy routes to Europe.
Neither J6 or NK has assets (airplanes) that United would really want. Only the 321NEOs would be brought over. J6 gives JFK and FLL, NK gives FLL. That would be what United needs. As everyone states, JFK could be a FAA issue (leaving that alone). What happens to the debt that both airlines has, that is the biggest issue. Kirby's not going to pay off 2 airlines debt for some gates. He can wait, let...
Neither J6 or NK has assets (airplanes) that United would really want. Only the 321NEOs would be brought over. J6 gives JFK and FLL, NK gives FLL. That would be what United needs. As everyone states, JFK could be a FAA issue (leaving that alone). What happens to the debt that both airlines has, that is the biggest issue. Kirby's not going to pay off 2 airlines debt for some gates. He can wait, let them tank and then get what he really wants. Also, bailing out NK is worthless, their issues still deal with the P&W issues and that is not going away. Remember, NK leased planes that they couldn't use because of P&W. They had a market of customers but no planes to fly.
Why does the writer want this so bad??? It’s clearly bad for public.
If writing/promoting about any aviation “consolidation” it should be Frontier buying Spirit, so the taxpayers don’t have to fund a failed business. Such a deal would help frontier and the public both short and long term.
I'm part of the public, and this isn't bad for me. This is my Hometown Airline destroying the Hometown Airline of the two cities in the US I hate the most. I want the name, the history, and the memory destroyed along with any reference to "B6", and it's going to be wonderful that the airline based at Sears Tower (never was, is, or will be Willis) is going to do it.
With a mayor like Brandon your goose is already cooked.
The last Republitard mayor we had, Big Bill Thompson, was Al Capone's bitch. And we survived Lori, so Brandon is nothing.
Another member of the public down here in FLL wondering what our airport will look like in six to twelve months. NK and B6 are irrelevant airlines except for the VFR crowd. Neither B6 or NK offer any value to me. They fly to a limited number of cities, mostly on the east coast. The offer 1 - 2 flights per day to their stations, often poorly timed. They lack alliances or affiliation that bring...
Another member of the public down here in FLL wondering what our airport will look like in six to twelve months. NK and B6 are irrelevant airlines except for the VFR crowd. Neither B6 or NK offer any value to me. They fly to a limited number of cities, mostly on the east coast. The offer 1 - 2 flights per day to their stations, often poorly timed. They lack alliances or affiliation that bring value. Their rewards programs are mheh.
Keeping these airlines around may help ma and pa kettle get up and down the east coast, but that doesn't help the rest of the country and it certainly does not to do as much to benefit the national economy as a financially secure legacy airline building a stable hub that connects globally would.
re: B6/NK merger: When you have one fifty-pound pile of horse crap and combine it with another fifty-pound pile of horse crap, you get nothing other than a one hundred pound pile of horse crap that stinks worse than either pile separately. It was intelligent for the Biden Administration to block it, because this one hundred pound pile of horse crap would have declared Chapter 7 approximately nine months ago.
for once, I mostly agree with you.
The US government is only interested in the appearance of competition and not having high profile companies fold.
If they facilitate financing while someone else gets a crack at turning NK around, then they have succeeded at their goals.
When no one else is willing to put any money into NK, then that is when it shuts down.
As much as some people want to believe that everyone...
for once, I mostly agree with you.
The US government is only interested in the appearance of competition and not having high profile companies fold.
If they facilitate financing while someone else gets a crack at turning NK around, then they have succeeded at their goals.
When no one else is willing to put any money into NK, then that is when it shuts down.
As much as some people want to believe that everyone that could turn NK around has tried and failed, the fact that NK stuck around as long as it did says there is money that believes they can execute a turnaround and make money in the process. That may or may not happen if the administration pushes a package out to NK and a new potential investor.
the same thing will play out for B6 undoubtedly in the fall when midterms are even closer.
too many people have tried to believe that US airline consolidation would be at its pinnacle - if not only involving - B6 and UA and yet the last two major newspieces have shown that people have been wrong about the free willing consolidation that many thought the current administration would allow.
News that NK will likely get some government backing and some investor that is willing to take the company off of the US...
too many people have tried to believe that US airline consolidation would be at its pinnacle - if not only involving - B6 and UA and yet the last two major newspieces have shown that people have been wrong about the free willing consolidation that many thought the current administration would allow.
News that NK will likely get some government backing and some investor that is willing to take the company off of the US means that the US is not willing for high profile companies like NK to fail or be acquired. That will be even more so for B6.
The notion that the US would allow either DL or UA to grow through acquisition in NYC or BOS esp. was always fatally flawed from an antitrust perspective even though the UA chorus has tried to argue that EWR and JFK/LGA are separate markets.
and it is very possible - if not likely - that new B6 mgmt will scrap the B6/UA partnership that might have given UA slots at JFK; it never made sense for B6 to give up slots at its largest hub to a competitor that has specifically stated they will start flights that will directly compete with B6 which is already scrapping for revenue and profits.
and the AA/AS JV goals have probably been run by someone in the administration and can be supported because it does not involve eliminating a carrier and combines even on a limited basis two weaker carriers on the west coast and in the US market w/o a merger.
and from a financial standpoint, B6' debt IS and will be a problem for the carrier regardless of whether B6 remains as a standalone company or merges with someone else. But AA is deeply indebted and they remain in business anyway. The US government does not care if airlines are profitable; they do care if they can keep flying and keep prices low. B6 can do that w/ the right leadership.
I suspect 2 years from now UA will not be at JFK, B6 will be independent and there will be marketing partnerships but not consolidation in the US industry.
You’re suspicions there at the end are removed form reality: jet blue can’t last another two years; and you didnt factor in corporate and govt greed and corruption, which will allow UA to acquire B6.
wow, just wow.
You want corruption and greed - of which you believe UA and B6 will engage - to take precedent over the benefit of everyone else including consumers.
Allowing further concentration in major metro areas where the big 4 already are large is bad for everyone and should not happen.
and yet the UA fan crowd has cheered it on in order to fix UA's strategic mistakes that have hurt the company in...
wow, just wow.
You want corruption and greed - of which you believe UA and B6 will engage - to take precedent over the benefit of everyone else including consumers.
Allowing further concentration in major metro areas where the big 4 already are large is bad for everyone and should not happen.
and yet the UA fan crowd has cheered it on in order to fix UA's strategic mistakes that have hurt the company in NYC. If they would really like access to JFK, they should reduce the size of their operation at EWR and not thru an agreement w/ B6 that is a wink and a nod to manipulate prices together at JFK and EWR.
AA and B6 have similarly bad finances on a size adjusted basis; in some cases, B6 looks better than AA which has had the lowest income margins in the US airline industry for years.
AA is turning things around like WN in generating much better revenue. B6 needs to do the same thing and find markets where they can make things work.
There is one investor that owns stock in both NK and B6; it is entirely possible that he could do what the former administration blocked which is to combine B6 and NK and create a hybrid ULCC and LCC that focuses on markets they can dominate while focusing less on highly competitive markets like NYC and BOS where B6 has lost enormous share and money to DL.
Allowing competitors to buy up low fare competitors is the last step; we are clearly not there even with NK.
Just wait until industry consolidation plays out and don't be surprised if it doesn't include the big 4 esp. in major metros where they overlap.
If UA doesn't get back into JFK, they'll survive.
LTD says, "If UA doesn't get back into JFK, they'll survive."
No kidding. What an 'analyst'! Regardless, UA will get the JFK gates/slots they need for LAX/SFO transcons.
So Tim, rather than consolidation, should Trump force to break apart Delta?
Careful what you wish for.
“Trump is trying to blame Spirit’s failure on Biden, and how Biden’s DOJ blocked JetBlue’s takeover of the airline” speaks to how stupid Trump is. Tying two loss-making, undercapitalized airlines together is like tying together two heavy rocks together and thinking they will “float” well together when thrown into the water.
Of course, the war with Iran is Biden's fault. As well as the economy. As well as the market tanking last year. As well as the Patriots losing the Super Bowl. As well as a friend's cat dying. As well as anything else you can think of. (Humor intended.)
And don't forget it's Biden't fault my bowel movements have changed.
Wall Street doesn’t care about extra spots at JFK when it comes with a huge burden of debt. United stock has done exceptionally well the past few years pushing FCF, great margins and low debt. Extra slots at JFK and a Florida hub might be good airline business but they’ll do nothing for the stock. Look at the price of $JBLU since Kirby started talking 18 months ago, it’s moved on Oil, not any M&A...
Wall Street doesn’t care about extra spots at JFK when it comes with a huge burden of debt. United stock has done exceptionally well the past few years pushing FCF, great margins and low debt. Extra slots at JFK and a Florida hub might be good airline business but they’ll do nothing for the stock. Look at the price of $JBLU since Kirby started talking 18 months ago, it’s moved on Oil, not any M&A potential, basically the street says this isn’t happening.
Meanwhile $UAL buying $AAL as a rumor did wonders for both. $JBLU is a smoke screen for $AAL. Buying $AAL would give United monopoly like power, exactly why you push Trump right now.
Are United’s BoD members and shareholders so stupid as to assume that a combined United+American won’t be broken up sooner or later out of competition concerns?
Roger says, "Wall Street doesn’t care about extra spots at JFK when it comes with a huge burden of debt. United stock has done exceptionally well the past few years pushing FCF, great margins and low debt."
UA has 700 aircraft on order and says it prefers organic growth. UA only needs and wants enough gates/slots to enable transcons to/from LAX & SFO. In this case second mover is the preferred position in the next...
Roger says, "Wall Street doesn’t care about extra spots at JFK when it comes with a huge burden of debt. United stock has done exceptionally well the past few years pushing FCF, great margins and low debt."
UA has 700 aircraft on order and says it prefers organic growth. UA only needs and wants enough gates/slots to enable transcons to/from LAX & SFO. In this case second mover is the preferred position in the next round of consolidation. Much depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
There’s no way that gets approved. I think the jetblue acquisition is already priced in. People don’t expect united to get a substantial premium - but the market responds to oil eroding their cash position even faster.
UA stock has been the worst performing of the big 3 stocks over the past month that have included merger talk and earnings reports.
the notion that the government will support monopolies in the airline industry is flatly opposite of reality based on recent news events (see above)
UA will be forced to organically grow - which is what DL has done over the past 15 years or slow its growth dramatically.
I suspect...
UA stock has been the worst performing of the big 3 stocks over the past month that have included merger talk and earnings reports.
the notion that the government will support monopolies in the airline industry is flatly opposite of reality based on recent news events (see above)
UA will be forced to organically grow - which is what DL has done over the past 15 years or slow its growth dramatically.
I suspect that we will see a much newer UA fleet in the next 5 years because they will be forced to retire alot of older aircraft and their regional fleet shrinks as growth decreases even as massive domestic mainline aircraft keep being delivered.
You seem like a very unhappy man.
While I appreciate your passion for Delta, I urge you to go outside and get away from your computer.
All the best.
Please correct me, but didn't Delta merge with Northwest Airlines in 2008? Oh, yes they did as I was with Northwest at the time. So after the merger with Northwest, they grew organically? But I would think purchasing an airline the size of NWA added a lot to Delta's flying and customer numbers? Like the Tokyo Hub and 747's?. Are you saying a merger is organically growing?
I wouldn’t be surprised to see United try to buy some JFK gate and terminal space — probably along with lounge access/space — from JetBlue. Perhaps it may even be more, perhaps even also a version of the disallowed partnership AA and JetBlue had.
What JFK needs are additional runways. LAX style.
"What JFK needs are additional runways. LAX style."
Despite its slots, JFK has plenty of spare runway capacity.
That's not the issue, and never has been. It's airspace.
Even on the best of days, JFK can't use anywhere near its maximum runway capacity, because it's splitting departure lanes with LGA and EWR. And if winds are coming from an unusual direction, it lowers even worse.
Bluff, hype, hooplah, grifting, lying, cheating, stealing, smashing and grabing… it’s 2026.