In my over 18 years of writing about the airline industry, this has to be one of the strangest periods in time, and I’m not just talking about the Trump administration considering taking an ownership stake in Spirit Airlines.
Among executives in the US airline industry, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby is probably the most outspoken and consequential figure. He’s a super smart guy, and I have a ton of respect for him. However, I think he’s also maybe drinking his own Kool-Aid a little too much, because he’s making a lot of comments that are leaving me scratching my head.
In this post, I’d like to focus on a consistent claim he has been making as of late, which I just can’t make sense of.
In this post:
Scott Kirby keeps touting US airline trade deficits
We recently learned how in February 2026, United CEO Scott Kirby floated the concept of United merging with American, to form a mega airline. This seems absolutely wild and bad for competition, but Kirby has a way that he’s trying to frame this, to make it sound like it’s in the best interest of the public.
Perhaps his perspective is best summed up in an interview he gave with CNBC on April 22, 2026. The way Kirby frames this, he wants to build “a truly competitive global airline,” but there’s a major issue — the US has a big airline “trade deficit,” as Kirby describes it:
“Today, we have a big trade deficit with international carriers. Many of them are effectively state-owned and state-subsidized. They fly 65% of the long-haul seats into the US, and only about 40% of the customers are from those countries. That’s bad for US aviation, that’s bad for US workers.”
“How can we solve that and create a great US airline that all citizens can be proud of, that competes on every facet around the globe?”
“The aspiration we have is to be a great, globally competitive airline. I’m not saying what is required to make that happen today, I don’t actually have all the answers today.”
Of course this is a smart way for Kirby to frame things, if the goal is to appeal to Trump. Trump loves to tout his “America First” agenda, and the whole basis of his early 2025 tariff policy was to address trade deficits.
Kirby is proposing a bad solution to a non-issue
As I see it, Kirby’s argument doesn’t make much sense both in terms of a trade imbalance being bad, and in terms of the solution to a trade imbalance being to form a mega airline.
On the topic of the trade imbalance:
- The reality is that US airlines are at a huge cost disadvantage to foreign competitors, and that’s partly good news for airline employees; that’s not even primarily about other airlines being subsidized, but instead, it’s because costs are just in a different level, like wide body captains making $400K+ per year, among other factors
- US airlines just can’t compete on product with so many foreign carriers, and that’s largely just cultural, since the US isn’t exactly known for great service
- Over the years we’ve seen US airlines intentionally “outsource” a lot of flying to their foreign partners, since it’s a win-win for them (just look at all the complaints from Delta pilots about increasing flying from equity partners Aeromexico, LATAM, Virgin Atlantic, etc.); thanks to joint ventures there’s revenue sharing, and ultimately airlines can still generate huge profits from loyalty programs through their partnerships with foreign airlines
- The argument that only 40% of customers on foreign airlines to the US are from those countries fails to take into account the relative size of countries; yes, most Lufthansa passengers connecting through Frankfurt are coming from other countries, but is that an issue, as Germany is so much smaller than the US?
On the topic of a mega airline being the solution:
- Americans don’t want one airline to be “proud” of; they want competition, as that’s what drives lower fares, a better product, etc.
- The US is a huge country with a big population, a lot of wealth, and a lot of people traveling; it’s not like Singapore or New Zealand, in terms of one global airline being sufficient
- Ultimately what enables a lot of the competition in long haul markets is having three joint venture alliances in most long haul regions, since that creates healthy competition; if anything, consolidating US service with one or two airlines would increase market share by foreign airlines not belonging to that same joint venture
- It’s not clear how any form of consolidation that would create a “mega” US carrier would address that trade deficit; to be completely ridiculous, let’s say American, Delta, and United all merged, as I don’t think that would lead to an overall increase in capacity compared to what each airline would offer individually
Lately so much of Kirby’s narrative seems to be along the lines of “United is God’s gift to the world, and it needs to be at the center of everything in aviation.” Now, I suppose as CEO, that’s the narrative you want to be pushing, so kudos to him. But for those of us who are objective, it’s much harder to make sense of.
Bottom line
United CEO Scott Kirby’s narrative as of late is how the US has an airline trade deficit, and that’s a big issue. He thinks the solution is to create a mega airline that everyone in the United States can be proud of. There’s so much about this argument that doesn’t make sense, and so little that does…
What do you make of Kirby’s airline trade deficit concerns?
Ok who watches the market news? Lets see Paramount takes over Warner Brothers. Trump likes the CEO at Paramount who outbid Netflix. All the Trumps including son-in-law with Saudi money are involved.
I can see that Scott Kirby is paying attention to the current Trump landscape. Watch out for the next big airline merger in America.
The way american capitalism works, one big (and only) US airline would fire a lot of people, jack prices up as high as possible, and fly only 100% full flights. There's zero ways it would improve anything.
The only reason for his public comments about merging is to play with the stock prices and to fluff his ego. Theres much wrong with his ideas if you will. Open skies should be curtailed and managed better. You can't have both partnerships/codeshares and Open skies too. As far as product goes, there should be some creativity to set themselves apart a unique great product that people like and not just wallstreet. And they should...
The only reason for his public comments about merging is to play with the stock prices and to fluff his ego. Theres much wrong with his ideas if you will. Open skies should be curtailed and managed better. You can't have both partnerships/codeshares and Open skies too. As far as product goes, there should be some creativity to set themselves apart a unique great product that people like and not just wallstreet. And they should keep their mouth shut, and stop giving into these activist investors seriously, run it right and safe. Use more widebodies on domestic routes and stop with the
Frequency increases which has gotten unsafe and its not as good for environment.
The issue is foreign government subsidized airlines. Emirates, for example. Competing with a blank-check government subsidy is a big problem for US carriers. This has been a concern of the US airline industry for decades and is not 'news'. However, even though foreign airlines cannot fly between two points in the US, they are encroaching further into the marketplace by flying to more destinations in the US. For example, BA just announced STL-LHR, which competes...
The issue is foreign government subsidized airlines. Emirates, for example. Competing with a blank-check government subsidy is a big problem for US carriers. This has been a concern of the US airline industry for decades and is not 'news'. However, even though foreign airlines cannot fly between two points in the US, they are encroaching further into the marketplace by flying to more destinations in the US. For example, BA just announced STL-LHR, which competes with US carriers who would provide one-stop service to LHR through their hubs, a more efficient (but less palatable to the consumer) method of filling long-haul aircraft.
So how would one US airline flying to Europe rather than 3 flying to Europe increase the US market share? It's not like one big consolidated airline would continue to fly 6 airplanes if they could get away with 5. Prices would go up, flights would get cut, international airlines would take the overflow, US market share would go down.
The main issue for US airlines is that their hard and soft products are mediocre at best.
Imagine a world where there were just US carriers - GOD FORBID ?
Kirby got the president he voted for.
Kirby needs to take a drug test, this guy is out of control.
Ooooo ooooo! I have an idea! Why not have a product on board that people actually want to fly?!?!?! Its like, people will flock to you when you're product is appealing, who f****** knew!?!?
When flying to Japan: ANA or United?
Singapore: Singapore or United?
Dubai: Emirates or United?
These are just some examples dumb***.
Kirby is wrong about foreign competition. The only state subsidized airlines United competes with are the Chinese trio on routes to China. Apart from the odd Asian carrier (e.g. Air India and Vietnam Airlines), the only other state owned airlines if competes with are the three main Middle East carriers, which are not subsidized and are more profitable than United (until the Iran war) and only really compete on United’s routes to India. The vast...
Kirby is wrong about foreign competition. The only state subsidized airlines United competes with are the Chinese trio on routes to China. Apart from the odd Asian carrier (e.g. Air India and Vietnam Airlines), the only other state owned airlines if competes with are the three main Middle East carriers, which are not subsidized and are more profitable than United (until the Iran war) and only really compete on United’s routes to India. The vast majority of its competitors on Asian and European routes are not state owned (except Singapore Airlines by a commercially run sovereign wealth fund) and are not state subsidized.
Air India is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Tata Group.
Ban all international flights from the US, that would solve the deficit problem instantly!
Mr. Kirby's comments are clear evidence that he is NOT the smartest person in the room. Early on, he made the statement that UA was the best airline in the history of aviation. After flying UA SFO-ICN I can tell you with absolute certainty that that is not the case.
People fly foreign carriers for the simple reason that they provide better value. Want proof? Look at the 2025 Skytrax's rankings. How many U.S. airlines in the top twenty? Zero!
Ugh... Kirby's nose is so brown at this point that someone is gonna accuse him of being in blackface.
Kirby is a clown. He likes the sound of his own voice and he certainly talks a lot. All he's done recently is copy Delta's play book and try to take credit for it as if he's some genius. Everyone knows a merger of that scale would be terrible for consumers. He's just tired of copying #1 and still winding up #2.
Ridiculous argument. I spent 10 years of the last 12 years of my life as a seafarer that did port calls all over the world every 2 months . I can tell you with absolute certainty that US carriers are far superior to 90% of all the other carriers out there.
You can’t possibly have typed that with a straight face
Bro... C'mon, man. You trippin'.
That’s hysterical US carriers
If United wants to fly STL-LHR or PIT-KEF they certainly can. Nothing is stopping them.
I'd rather have one airline to be proud of. I don't want competition to lower fares, because I don't want lower fares. I want a situation pre-deregulation where flying was only available to the elite. I don't want to jostle for space with human garbage at airports. I don't want to have to share planes with trailer trash. I want the term "Basic Economy" to disappear and for everyone to follow United with 25% raises in airfare.
Yet, somehow you still rank him in the top three or five of your admired airline CEOs. The criteria must not be based solely on the balance sheet but should include management-union relations, employees-customers relations, contribution to the community and planet, etc... I understand it is a much harder task since it requires deep knowledge of foreign airlines CEOs because they shun public appearance and attention. However, corporate and societal culture set US airlines far...
Yet, somehow you still rank him in the top three or five of your admired airline CEOs. The criteria must not be based solely on the balance sheet but should include management-union relations, employees-customers relations, contribution to the community and planet, etc... I understand it is a much harder task since it requires deep knowledge of foreign airlines CEOs because they shun public appearance and attention. However, corporate and societal culture set US airlines far below those of their foreign competitors. Trump graduated from Wharton business program. Yet, he failed to understand the functions of tariffs and the reason most economists are against it. It also explains why he threatened to sue the college should his transcripts be revealed to the public. But both guys share many similar characters, namely retribution, hypocrisy, embellishment.
to no one's surprise, UA's fixation with market share comes at the cost of running a more profitable airline.
Actual DOT data shows that UA made $700 million less than DL in the first 3 quarters of 2025 on their international systems while AA basically operated its international network at breakeven due to consistent losses across the Atlantic and Pacific.
Perhaps Kirby should be a whole lot focused on running a best in class...
to no one's surprise, UA's fixation with market share comes at the cost of running a more profitable airline.
Actual DOT data shows that UA made $700 million less than DL in the first 3 quarters of 2025 on their international systems while AA basically operated its international network at breakeven due to consistent losses across the Atlantic and Pacific.
Perhaps Kirby should be a whole lot focused on running a best in class business instead of worrying about carrying share which UA clearly cannot carry as profitably as DL
Somehow we have come full circle to the days of complaining about the ME3
Who would choose to fly United over any European carrier?
@Espresso_Frankfurt
Who would choose to fly United over any Asian carrier?
I flew united from HKG to EWR yesterday and I have to say the hard product is better than most European carriers - I mean the service is pretty poor and there’s wasn’t an FA who appeared to be under the age of 50, but the management team has done their jobs. The IFE and seats are world class.
I refuse to buy that the service is a US culture issue. There are plenty of...
I flew united from HKG to EWR yesterday and I have to say the hard product is better than most European carriers - I mean the service is pretty poor and there’s wasn’t an FA who appeared to be under the age of 50, but the management team has done their jobs. The IFE and seats are world class.
I refuse to buy that the service is a US culture issue. There are plenty of industries that deliver great service in the US (some of them are even unionized). Its a cultural issue within the big 3 long haul crews
Thank you Panthers fan! It's such an easy excuse to just say that the US has a bad service culture. Forgetting that the US is HUGE, and that will provide differences in how service is performed and perceived. Less polished but hospitality in the south, just get it done culture with no fanfare in the NE, laid back in SoCal, all different types of service. Much of the service culture in Europe is machines doing...
Thank you Panthers fan! It's such an easy excuse to just say that the US has a bad service culture. Forgetting that the US is HUGE, and that will provide differences in how service is performed and perceived. Less polished but hospitality in the south, just get it done culture with no fanfare in the NE, laid back in SoCal, all different types of service. Much of the service culture in Europe is machines doing the bulk of public interactions. Go through AMS and let me know if that's the service culture that the US, or anyone, should be aspiring to. And Ben is a fan of the ME3, who are subsidized and gather the best of the best talent, but it's not like he goes out in to the rest of the country. Cairo says hello...
Ben himself has raved about his stays at some properties, like in his trip to Iceland. In that case, the country is not known for a service culture, but it came off as "charming" and I believe had a great rating.
Any goes a long way, Air Serbia flies to the US, as does Norse Atlantic.
I frankly don't mind UA. Some of my best flight experiences and service memories were on UA. Some crews - even on domestic widebodies - are truly impeccable. If there is a good redemption in Polaris - I would have no problem taking it.
A little bit of humility from UAL will go a long way. Making fun of all competitors and all other executives will come back one day and hit the rear. UA was bankrupt just 20 years ago.
The problem with Scott is he likes to talks to much he wants to be the smartest guy in the room always and he needs to make sure that you know that he’s too emotional leader. He needs to shut the F up and stop talking about what happens currently on AA he hast been there in a decade number one and number two clearly he was hurt when he was not selected to fe...
The problem with Scott is he likes to talks to much he wants to be the smartest guy in the room always and he needs to make sure that you know that he’s too emotional leader. He needs to shut the F up and stop talking about what happens currently on AA he hast been there in a decade number one and number two clearly he was hurt when he was not selected to fe the chosen one and that still bugging him.
Focus on your company on how to offer a Polaris Service that can go head to head or better than Emirates, Ethiad, Quatar, Singapore Airlines, Thahiti Airways those should be thd us airlines 3 big players focus and they need to stop looking at their cousins in Europe BA VA IB LH AF KLM etc they are the same or worst than the USA Big 8 please just shut up. When your Polaris service gets somewhere then you talk Scott in the meantime shut up
Kirby is "smart" to know how to kiss ass, but he isn't really smart. When UA becomes the first big US airline running into trouble when the economy/market sours, we will recall his so-called "smart" moves.
one issue that is legitimate and relevant but didn't brought up is that airports were not designed for international-to-international transit.
it means US airlines basically can compete on this front, and thus "the smaller share"
To be fair - vast majority of foreign airlines don't the major source of revenue the US airlines have - which is bank partnerships and miles sales.
Kirby is bound do be in a tizzy after news broke that the administration is preparing a loan to NK. He has spent years telling us that UA is dead set to kill ultra low cost carriers and American and the upshot is that the US is just not going to let airlines to die, esp. low and ultra low cost carriers
AA just released its financial results for the 1st quarter and its 2nd...
Kirby is bound do be in a tizzy after news broke that the administration is preparing a loan to NK. He has spent years telling us that UA is dead set to kill ultra low cost carriers and American and the upshot is that the US is just not going to let airlines to die, esp. low and ultra low cost carriers
AA just released its financial results for the 1st quarter and its 2nd quarter guidance and they will continue to grow capacity pretty aggressively. They are simply not motivated to be profitable and are the largest supplier of money-losing capacity - not the ULCCs.
I am hardly a Kirby fan but he and Bastian both agree that money-losing providers of capacity have to go; Kirby thinks that can be accomplished by killing American while DL has proven it wins against all competitors over time - something Kirby is unwilling to invest.
UA has to figure out how to win against all players while paying industry comparable labor costs - which AA, DL and WN are paying - and not do it by dumping capacity into the market which will depress yields.
Q1 2026 Net Income (in $m)
UA: $699
SW: $227
DL: ($289)
AA: ($382)
Q1 2026 CF/Capex/FCF (in $b)
UA: 4.8/1.9/2.9
AA: 4.2/0.8/3.2
DL: 2.4/1.7/0.7
SW: 1.4/0.6/0.8
Or… he’s trying to tee up the administration to allow a B6 acquisition.
Also I’m curious Tim, why is UA more profitable than Delta this quarter? I remember you saying a few weeks ago they pushed back their results because they must be so bad, yet they beat Delta on income and FCF? This isn’t the first time you’ve been completely wrong on results. I remember when you were adamant that DL would order 787s...
Or… he’s trying to tee up the administration to allow a B6 acquisition.
Also I’m curious Tim, why is UA more profitable than Delta this quarter? I remember you saying a few weeks ago they pushed back their results because they must be so bad, yet they beat Delta on income and FCF? This isn’t the first time you’ve been completely wrong on results. I remember when you were adamant that DL would order 787s right after their results last year but then they didn’t do that for months after - do you remember that?
So why do you think United is gaining so much on Delta now? Do you think Delta has a worse strategy or United has a better one?
pour little tiny tooled Andy and rebel who not only have to carry Scotty's water but can't read or interpret financial statements.
UA generated higher income because it engaged in sale and lease back transactions which goose the income statement but increase debt.
If you think adding debt is a good idea, then you can take the win. UA will be doing this all day long.
All it means is increases the chances that...
pour little tiny tooled Andy and rebel who not only have to carry Scotty's water but can't read or interpret financial statements.
UA generated higher income because it engaged in sale and lease back transactions which goose the income statement but increase debt.
If you think adding debt is a good idea, then you can take the win. UA will be doing this all day long.
All it means is increases the chances that UA won't be able to acquire B6 because their debt load by the end of the year will look much more like AA's than DL's.
same thing applies to cash flow.
UA - and you two - are desperate to claim a win - but you all - just like Scotty's team manipulate numbers to make one thing good at the expense of another.
You do realize that UA stock is down 2.65% over the past 30 days which is only topped in "worseness" by WN.
DAL is up 5.55%.
Wall Street isn't fooled.
and neither is anyone here w/ a brain.
UA is just moving around the deck chairs on Titanic Willis Tower.
Adding debt is a great idea in this climate, the airlines need all the cash they can get. The other two reasons that United generated higher income b (its generous to call it income given Delta made a loss):
1. Delta made bad investments in other airlines
2. Delta had huge losses on their hedges
Both of these moves were bad and destroyed shareholder value - If you're going to say someone...
Adding debt is a great idea in this climate, the airlines need all the cash they can get. The other two reasons that United generated higher income b (its generous to call it income given Delta made a loss):
1. Delta made bad investments in other airlines
2. Delta had huge losses on their hedges
Both of these moves were bad and destroyed shareholder value - If you're going to say someone can't read the income statements Timmy you should at least read the whole income statement.
But all of these GAAP stuff aside, Yes on a non-GAAP basis Delta slightly edged out United - however this was a much closer quarter than what these two are typically at, which goes to show the gap is closing.
Also just for fun lets look at longer term horizons for wall street instead of idk a period where a war just randomly started....
UA beats DL on a 3Y, 5Y and 10Y basis... Wall street isn't fooled, UA's 3Y, 5Y and 10Y strategy has been better than DL's, DL's 30 day strategy may have won this time (due to them having an oil refinery...) but it turns out most people care about longer term returns. Should I keep track of returns and if UA ever beats DL on a 30 day period you'll say your argument is flawed right?
"Adding debt is a great idea in this climate"
wow, just wow. You truly have no clue how to run any business or personal finances.
DL adjusts the value of its equity in other airlines. It is an ACCOUNTING adjustment which does not involve cash.
The same negative adjustment DL just did allowed DL to beat UA in net income in 3Q2024 when DL's operations melted down due to CrowdStrike.
You and the rest...
"Adding debt is a great idea in this climate"
wow, just wow. You truly have no clue how to run any business or personal finances.
DL adjusts the value of its equity in other airlines. It is an ACCOUNTING adjustment which does not involve cash.
The same negative adjustment DL just did allowed DL to beat UA in net income in 3Q2024 when DL's operations melted down due to CrowdStrike.
You and the rest of the rabid UA fan club loves to cherrypick data while ignoring the big picture.
Even Matthew noted that DL's operating margin was higher than UA's in the MRQ.
and UA DID try to buy a refinery but failed.
Amazing how you love to belittle the strategies that DL succeeds at but UA does not including a less valuable credit card/loyalty program.
Kirby knows full well that AA has a more valuable loyalty program than UA and it drives him absolutely nuts - but likely won't change.
Neither you or him can accept the reality that UA is really #2 or worse in a whole lot of metrics.
U.S. airlines also have more difficulty competing on long haul international routes because the U.S. government does not allow U.S. airports to offer visa free international flight connections. The Trump Administration's hostility to foreign visitors makes the problem even more acute.
Translation : Scott wants AA.
I think this explanation is very simple. He’s sucking up to the president, who also has a thing for misusing the meaning of trade deficit
Agree. Seeking revenge will make you say and do strange things.
Someone should list out all the bail outs in the last 50 years to shut him up on "Subsidies" and that's not even countring so many other things. Hypocrites.
You rang?
1980: Chrysler Corporation ($1.5 billion)
1984: Continental Illinois National Bank ($4.5b).
1989: Savings & Loan crisis ($132b).
2001: Airlines (post-9/11, $15b).
2008: Financial sector (Bear Stearns $30b, Fannie & Freddie $190b, AIG $182b, and more).
2009: Auto industry (Big three got $80b)
2020: Airlines ($50b), small businesses (PPP)... trillions in grants.
194 days until midterms. Vote to reign in abuses of power, hold corrupt politicians and corporations accountable. Enough of these feckless, sycophantic enablers and grifters.
I know and agree, voting red down the aisle and kicking incumbents out in my blue state. Career politicians that somehow become much richer after entering office. Grifters like Sherill, Sanders, AOC, Newsom, who care more about the national goings on instead of concentrating on their states/districts. You don't have to sell me on it :)
Maybe you should turn off Fox News…
Maybe you should turn off Fox News…
If Kirby continues to devalue me as a 1K flyer, especially since I don't want one of their credit cards, you can damn well bet I will look at foreign carries for the bulk of my travel which is international.
"...I will look at foreign carries for the bulk of my travel which is international."
You should be doing this already.
A CEO trying to appeal to the authoritarian in chief to get what he wants (see Spirit bailout). And gambling in Casablanca? Shocking!
True, but you don't really see Robert Isom Or Eddy B sucking up to both administrations in such a blatant fashion as Scott Kirby.
Scott is a smart guy but I don't think I've seen something blow like the prevailing wind since I was walking by a car dealership with those tube men blowing everywhere.
I hope he gets called out more and more by the MAGA faithful for his BS sycophancy.
At least wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tube men have some integrity...
great family guy reference 1990 ;)
MaxP says, "I hope he gets called out more and more by the MAGA faithful for his BS sycophancy."
A cursory review of Trumps' courtiers would reveal their own "BS sycophancy" (see Rubio, Vance, Graham, Tim Cook etc) so I am not sure that works.