Advance Purchase vs. Points Stay….

I appreciate all the thoughts, thanks folks! I'm fairly certain I'll take the trip, so the non-refundability isn't a huge issue for me (in general). With the economy I just have a hard time deciding between the two. I'll post back when I make a deicision. Thanks again!

I had a similar conundrum of points vs cash (discounted non-refundable rate) in Vienna where it was a toss-up in value. I went for points (even with a smaller stash than yours) in part because the points stay is refundable. However, your stay is only 6 weeks away - how likely is it really that you'll benefit from having a refundable booking?

It's funny. I have the same conundrum. I already have a free night booked at the Conrad Hong Kong in early March, necessitated by the 18 hour layover in Hong Kong on our way to India on Cathay. You and I have both stayed at this Conrad in the past so we know how GOOD it is. I'm actually thinking of staying at the Holiday Inn Express in Wanchai. It gets good reviews but, of course, won't be in the same league as the Conrad. I'm thinking of doing it since it's fairly cheap (about $125), it helps me qualify for the 3,000 Priority Club points promo and, most importantly, it is smack in the middle of Wanchai, giving me a better chance to know that neighborhood. (Although the Conrad is fantastic, it's a bit removed.) I suppose if my wife puts a kabosh on the Holiday Inn idea, I will go the paying route at the Conrad since I think 40,000 points are worth at least $300. Enjoy Hong Kong on your way to the Philippines. (Be sure to visit Boracay if you have the chance. I was there several times in the early '80s before it was "discovered" and there are few places that I have seen that are as beautiful as Boracay.)

Hi Lucky, I would pay for the room. I am a Hilton Diamond member and although the Conrad HKG is a very nice hotel I like to use the points when there is no reasonable rate. I used 40k points to stay at the Waldorf NYC where the least expensive room was $600. I am not sure of your status and I know you are the king of upgrades but with Hilton I always call the desk after I book and have them request an upgrade on your reservation. I know there is no formal process at Hilton for this but it works for me 100% of the time. Worth a shot and it costs nothing. Met you at the SFO Fleet Week in October, wife and I had a great time! Thanks again.

I agree ... it's a toss up. Basically, it's all about what your cash-flow situation is like right now. Me ... I don't like having too high of a hotel points balance. It's good to spend a bit once in a while.