If United Airlines has its way, the airline will launch two new routes to Tokyo Haneda Airport (HND).
In this post:
Some Tokyo Haneda slots are up for grabs
Tokyo has two major airports — Narita Airport (NRT) and Haneda Airport (HND). Haneda is much more convenient for those visiting Tokyo, but historically most long haul flights have operated to Narita. However, Haneda has increasingly been opening up slots for long haul flights, which airlines have been very excited about.
Back in 2019, the Department of Transportation (DOT) was in a position to award US airlines a dozen additional slots for Haneda (Japanese airlines were offered a similar number of slots). The DOT is supposed to award these based on what’s in the best interest of the public, so airlines try to make the case for why a particular route is in the public’s best interest.
Those 12 slots ended up being split between four airlines, including American, Delta, Hawaiian, and United. These slots have a “use it or lose it” clause, meaning that if an airline doesn’t operate a route for which it was granted a slot, it will be allocated to another airline.
However, due to the pandemic, the DOT has allowed airlines to delay launching these flights. That dormancy waiver ends as of October 2023, and we know that two airlines decided not to use their available slots. Specifically, Delta won’t operate a daily Portland to Tokyo Haneda route, while Hawaiian Airlines won’t operate a 5x weekly Kona to Tokyo Haneda route.
United proposes Guam and Houston to Tokyo Haneda flights
The DOT will presumably soon invite US airlines to propose new routes to Tokyo Haneda for these available slots. Even ahead of that, United Airlines has already requested the right to operate two new routes to Tokyo Haneda.
United is proposing operating a daily flight from Houston (IAH) with the following schedule:
UA7 Houston to Tokyo departing 12:30PM arriving 5:45PM (+1 day)
UA6 Tokyo to Houston departing 7:40PM arriving 4:30PM
United is also proposing operating a 5x weekly flight from Guam (GUM) with the following schedule:
UA848 Guam to Tokyo departing 7:10PM arriving 10:00PM
UA849 Tokyo to Guam departing 11:55PM arriving 4:45AM (+1 day)
United is willing to commence these routes ASAP, assuming the airline is granted these slots. Now, a couple of interesting things to note about these new routes:
- United joint venture partner All Nippon Airways already flies between Houston and Tokyo Haneda, while United already flies from Houston to Tokyo Narita; I’m curious if United would maintain its Narita service, if ANA would maintain its Haneda service, or what
- United already flies between Guam and Tokyo Narita, though this would be the first service to Tokyo Haneda; this service would use a pretty undesirable slot in terms of Haneda takeoff and landing times, so this isn’t a particularly premium slot for mainland US service
Will American or Delta request any Tokyo Haneda flights?
So far United is the only airline to make a concrete proposal as to what should be done with these slots. However, the DOT hasn’t even started the formal process of reallocating these slots. That means other airlines, like American and Delta, will have the opportunity to make their case.
We’ll see how this unfolds, though it’s always fun to speculate a bit:
- American has a shortage of long haul aircraft and doesn’t seem to want much expansion in Asia, and the airline already flies to Haneda from Dallas (DFW) and Los Angeles (LAX); I’m sure the airline could get approval to fly to Haneda out of Miami (MIA) or Philadelphia (PHL), but I can’t imagine American would be willing to do that
- Delta already has plans to serve Haneda out of Atlanta (ATL), Detroit (DTW), Honolulu (HNL), Los Angeles (LAX), Minneapolis (MSP), and Seattle (SEA); I think Delta would have good odds of being granted service out of Boston (BOS) or New York (JFK), but I also doubt that Delta is willing to do that at this point
- If Delta can propose new routes different than the ones it’s currently offering, the airline should generally have the advantage in being granted new Haneda slots, given that American and United both have joint venture partners in Japan
As far as United’s proposed service goes, I imagine that the DOT would consider the Guam service to be in the public’s best interest. Meanwhile I imagine the Houston service would only be selected if there weren’t any other decent proposals, given that United’s joint venture partner already operates that exact route.
Bottom line
Some Haneda Airport slots will be up for grabs shortly for US airlines, due to Delta not launching Portland flights, and Hawaiian Airlines not launching Kona flights. United has already proposed adding Haneda service out of both Guam and Houston, so let’s see what other airlines request, once the reallocation process officially starts.
What new service would you like to see between Tokyo Haneda and the United States?
There are some western U.S. airports that could probably sustain profitable Haneda service. Denver only has Narita service right now. United could shift that service to Haneda. Las Vegas used to have Tokyo service. But I don't know which U.S. airline with long range aircraft would fly that route. If American can find the equipment and crews then they've got lots of options like Phoenix, Miami, or even Charlotte.
Nobody ever mentioned that American use to fly SEA(Seattle)to NRT before. Just like PDX(Portland) had Northwest Airlines and I understand they gave its up because some problems with customs. Then none of the big 3 wanted to fly out of PDX saying they couldn't make money. Then Delta got it because of the merger of Northwest.
I think AA should try PDX or SEA to HND.
actually, Portland to Tokyo was flown by United before UA bought Pan Am's Pacific assets.
DL started the PDX-NRT route and began service with L1011s that originated in ATL then bought PDX into a mini-Pacific gateway and added other gateways to Asia including ATL and LAX with the MD-11.
After it was obvious that neither the MD-11 wasn't viable (AA bought and fairly quickly dumped the plane) and PDX didn't work, DL started...
actually, Portland to Tokyo was flown by United before UA bought Pan Am's Pacific assets.
DL started the PDX-NRT route and began service with L1011s that originated in ATL then bought PDX into a mini-Pacific gateway and added other gateways to Asia including ATL and LAX with the MD-11.
After it was obvious that neither the MD-11 wasn't viable (AA bought and fairly quickly dumped the plane) and PDX didn't work, DL started shopping for airlines w/ Asia route systems and merged with NW.
The PDX-Tokyo route predated the DL-NW merger and lasted as long as it did because of the NW Narita hub.
Once DL moved its Tokyo operation to Haneda, completed during covid, there was no place for PDX, the only non-hub continental US gateway to Japan flown by any airline. PDX's days were over.
The real question is if DL starts PDX-ICN which would give PDX access to Asia but through a joint venture hub. I am betting they will eventually do that but probably not on a daily basis.
"I think AA should try PDX or SEA to HND." So although Delta could not make PDX work (or didn't think it could), AA should give PDX a try? Granted AA, has a JV partner at HND, but still...
AA did want to build up an INTL hub at SEA, but that consists of just LHR at the moment (I believe). I can't see HND working, even with AS's connecting traffic in SEA and...
"I think AA should try PDX or SEA to HND." So although Delta could not make PDX work (or didn't think it could), AA should give PDX a try? Granted AA, has a JV partner at HND, but still...
AA did want to build up an INTL hub at SEA, but that consists of just LHR at the moment (I believe). I can't see HND working, even with AS's connecting traffic in SEA and JL's in HND. JL already flies to SEA (I think from NRT) with a 767 - I think the only destination in the U.S. to which it flies a 767 as opposed to something larger.
Looks like Hawaiian is not going to give up the slot quite yet.
https://airlineweekly.skift.com/2023/09/hawaiian-airlines-defends-tokyo-haneda-flight-rights-as-united-seeks-to-expand/
So assuming they would still operate the 737 service to GUMHND ? Another 4 hour flight in economy wouldn’t be much fun
AA coverage to Japan from the East Coast is woefully absent. Yes, JAL operates out of JFK, but AA/JAL do not have preferred upgrade status, like United has with ANA/LUF.
I personally would like to see AA pickup this route from PHL-HND
Wouldn't you be more amused to see them douse cash with kerosene, then light it up?
Using 2019 numbers (all I have access to), PHL has less demand to HND than the likes of Nashville and Indianapolis. Heavy knows the yield would likely be even worse.
AA would be gaining nothing, and (unlike a route like DOH) they'd just be robbing other gateways that they could otherwise earn money on with a j/v partner.
...Wouldn't you be more amused to see them douse cash with kerosene, then light it up?
Using 2019 numbers (all I have access to), PHL has less demand to HND than the likes of Nashville and Indianapolis. Heavy knows the yield would likely be even worse.
AA would be gaining nothing, and (unlike a route like DOH) they'd just be robbing other gateways that they could otherwise earn money on with a j/v partner.
Hence, of course, why they've never displayed the slightest interest in doing so from there.
Would love to see AA apply for PHX-HND. Have to imagine they'd be able to make that work with all of the connecting traffic they already funnel through PHX (though I'd much rather see JAL on that route).
Ben is very much directionally correct in his assessment of this all.
First, there is no route case yet. The DOT will launch one to reallocate the frequencies that both DL gave up and HA is not using but they probably will have to terminate HA's underusage first.
All US is doing by saying what it wants before a route case is opened is allowing its competitors to prepare their bids. The same...
Ben is very much directionally correct in his assessment of this all.
First, there is no route case yet. The DOT will launch one to reallocate the frequencies that both DL gave up and HA is not using but they probably will have to terminate HA's underusage first.
All US is doing by saying what it wants before a route case is opened is allowing its competitors to prepare their bids. The same thing happened w/ China; UA said it wanted daily SFO-PVG and PEK and AA and DL were free to file their proposals with the assurance that what they asked for would not conflict w/ what UA wants.
Second, the only way that UA will get any further HND flights is of neither AA or DL ask for any - and that is highly unlikely.
Third, the DOT is simply not going to give UA an IAH frequency given that NH already flies the route. UA wanted a JV w/ NH, the two have the most frequencies between the US and Japan and there is no public benefit in giving UA a route which NH flies given that the NH flight comes nowhere close to being 100% full of local passengers.
Fourth, because of the JV issues, DL will still have first preference if it comes up w/ a decent proposal. I believe that DL will ask for JFK-HND as its first choice, a route it has never operated although AA did under nighttime slots - which are nowhere near the same. NYC is one of the largest markets from Japan and DL is the only one of the big 3 that doesn't serve it or via its JV, and UA serves it via both its own metal and a JV. DL's JFK-NRT flight was full of low yield connections beyond Tokyo under the NW/DL NRT hub and was also operated with the 744 and 777-200. DL's JFK hub is larger and more developed, their market position in NYC is much better now, and they will use an A350 which has far better economics.
As for aircraft, DL flashed a potential solution to providing an aircraft for JFK-HND when it briefly changed future schedules for DTW-HND from an A350 to an A330-900 - and then changed it back.
And DL will soon be converting the 9 ex-Latam A350s to DL standard configuration and they will be capable of flying all Japan routes plus all of what DL has scheduled on the A350 from LAX except for SYD. The most capable A350s are going to be used to eliminate payload restrictions where the less capable aircraft are now being used.
If AA decides to apply for a new route, its best shot is MIA. AA could apply for LAS again but the economics w/ current fuel prices is probably not good. Every other AA hub already has HND service w/ AA or JL or is unlikely to ever get. AA will still take a back seat to DL because of their JV.
I would be surprised if we see a new HND route started by the end of March when IATA summer 2024 starts due to the length of the DOT's processes.
United will likely drop its Houston to NRT flight, or ANA will drop theirs, if United is granted the slot to fly between IAH and HND. The UA IAH-NRT flight normally isn't too full outside of peak months, so I don't think the market will need another daily frequency.
This is partially because United flies to Tokyo from so many of its hubs, so people have a lot of choices in where they connect...
United will likely drop its Houston to NRT flight, or ANA will drop theirs, if United is granted the slot to fly between IAH and HND. The UA IAH-NRT flight normally isn't too full outside of peak months, so I don't think the market will need another daily frequency.
This is partially because United flies to Tokyo from so many of its hubs, so people have a lot of choices in where they connect if they originate outside of Houston. Meanwhile, pre-pandemic AA had 2 daily 772 flights to NRT from DFW and JAL had another daily 789 frequency, which was easy to fill given that AA only flew to Tokyo from DFW and LAX at the time.
your theory is precisely why NRT as a hub is failing and why NH and JL as well as their US partners will push to get more frequencies added to HND.
NRT flights simply cannot compete with HND flights for the local market. HND does not have enough mass to offer enough connections but the local market is worth so much more.
UA and NH simply want to gain as many HND flights...
your theory is precisely why NRT as a hub is failing and why NH and JL as well as their US partners will push to get more frequencies added to HND.
NRT flights simply cannot compete with HND flights for the local market. HND does not have enough mass to offer enough connections but the local market is worth so much more.
UA and NH simply want to gain as many HND flights as possible while locking others out before the Japanese government is forced to do away w/ all restrictions on HND access and build enough capacity to move all longhaul premium carrier service to HND from NRT which is their intention.
It is physically impossible for HND to take over all of the long-haul premium carrier service from NRT.
I think more likely United will drop IAH-NRT in favor of IAH-HND and that ANA will continue their IAH-HND route as well. At least that's what I'm hoping
because of the JV with NH, there is no public benefit - a key criteria for DOT selections - if UA adds its own IAH-HND flight.
I suspect UA's choice of trying to convert the route says that the NRT flight does not do well at all and they are simply trying to convert rather than drop it.
Houston is not that big of a city to support competing service to both HND and NRT...
because of the JV with NH, there is no public benefit - a key criteria for DOT selections - if UA adds its own IAH-HND flight.
I suspect UA's choice of trying to convert the route says that the NRT flight does not do well at all and they are simply trying to convert rather than drop it.
Houston is not that big of a city to support competing service to both HND and NRT and still have NRT carry a decent amount of premium local Tokyo traffic.
And part of the problem w/ IAH is that UA is so strong to Asia form other gateways such as SFO and UA pulls connecting traffic via its own network rather than via Tokyo. Not a bad problem to have but it makes the NRT flight redundant.
Guam is a strange choice, not a premium time slot but still a premium airport. In any case, I think it's safe to say that United will dump their NRT routes in both cases.
Following up, why does Guam NEED that many daily flights? Is it all Japanese tourism?
Tourism, Guam-Mainland connections (UA has near-monopoly due to cabotage restriction), and DOD traffic! There are quite a few US bases west of central Tokyo than north and east.
It seems Delta never intended to operate the Portland route so I'm glad it's being taken back. It should be used for route expansion rather than simply replacing a NRT route.
I would love for United to replace their den to nrt flight with den to hnd, but that looks like it’s not going to happen :(
Ben, why do you think DL wouldn’t be interested in BOS or JFK to HND? Both cities would have a lot of local demand, and DL already has a large presence in both cities.
It's unfortunate that this is not a Houston-Tokyo or Tokyo-Houston flight with a stopover in Guam.
Id vote for bos-hnd. Jap is the only one serving the route. It would be a great competition if delta can make it happen
It's a shame that Alaska has no interest in launching a trans-Pacific service like JetBlue's trans-Atlantic service. They could offer service from either LAX/SFO/SEA and bring competition to the market.
Could a A321LR fly from Seattle to Tokyo?
Seattle to London is shorter than Seattle to Tokyo. You would drop into the ocean 1000 miles short of Tokyo, and it would be a merciful death after 9 hours in a 737.
An A321LR couldn't, but SEA-HND would be *marginally* within range of the incoming A321XLR (assuming Airbus can hit its proposed target, post CAA concerns), at least during the summer, assuming about a 10% buffer for winds.
It'd be a much dicier proposal taking TPAC winter winds into account.
ANC-HND on Alaska Airlines!
What a party that would be.
GUM-HND will be an interesting route if it becomes operational, though it isn't good connection times to the US mainland. Currently, it operates 2x to 3x daily on its GUM-NRT route with good connections for mainland flights out of NRT.
IAH-HND makes sense. GUM-HND is a waste of slot.
GUM-HND would be operated with a nighttime slot which is highly unattractive for ConUS-HND flights in terms of timings
As mentioned in the article, if Delta applies HND-JFK/BOS it would be most likely to be approved as Delta lacks JV partner in Japan. And in the past, Japan office of Delta stated HND-JFK was their priority as NRT-JFK which they axed in 2016 was performed well (I am not sure why they did not apply HND-JFK in 2019).
Hawaiian announced that it would increase HND/KOA up to thrice weekly during 2023 winter schedule so...
As mentioned in the article, if Delta applies HND-JFK/BOS it would be most likely to be approved as Delta lacks JV partner in Japan. And in the past, Japan office of Delta stated HND-JFK was their priority as NRT-JFK which they axed in 2016 was performed well (I am not sure why they did not apply HND-JFK in 2019).
Hawaiian announced that it would increase HND/KOA up to thrice weekly during 2023 winter schedule so I am not sure how much slots are up for grab.
UA has up to 4 flights daily between NRT/GUM and if granted, new service would replace following one.
UA874 NRT 21:05 - GUM 2:05+1
UA873 GUM 17:00 - NRT 19:55