It looks like United Airlines may launch a second route to Dubai this winter. While nothing is official yet, it seems probable to me that this will happen…
In this post:
United secures second daily slot for Dubai Airport (DXB)
In early 2023, United Airlines and Emirates Airline launched a partnership. Not only does this include a codeshare agreement, but United also launched a daily flight between Newark (EWR) and Dubai (DXB).
While we’ll see how this plays out, the always knowledgable @IshrionA reports on how United has been granted a second daily slot for Dubai Airport for the winter season. It’s not known out of which airport United would operate a second flight to Dubai, though the filing suggests that United would use a Boeing 777-300ER, which is the carrier’s largest aircraft.
Therefore it seems likely that the route would be out of Washington Dulles (IAD), given that it’s one of United’s two hubs with 777-300ER long haul flights. The other hub is San Francisco (SFO), and with the current Russian airspace restrictions, a United route from there to Dubai is unlikely.
It’s worth emphasizing that it’s possible that United just requested permission to see if it would be granted, but hasn’t firmed up plans at the time. It wouldn’t be the first time an airline has requested slots but doesn’t end up using them.
It seems highly likely this route will launch
I certainly could be wrong, but I think odds are good that this will happen. United is by far the most global of the “big three” US carriers, and the airline has a massive wide body fleet. Those planes are super easy to fill in summer, when demand across the Atlantic is insatiable.
Winter is a different story, though:
- Demand between the United States and Europe is much weaker in winter than summer
- Demand between the United States and China is only a fraction of what it was pre-pandemic, so that used to be a much bigger market
- While United tried a massive South Pacific expansion this past northern winter, the airline saw a significant reduction in yields, so I don’t think we’ll see United come back as strong in the South Pacific for this upcoming peak season
When you have excess wide body jets, adding a flight to Dubai seems like a no brainer:
- Dubai has really come into its own post-pandemic, and has become an increasingly popular vacation spot for people
- Another Dubai flight will allow United to serve the Indian subcontinent better during peak season, when India service possibilities are limited due to airspace restrictions
- Many people are just looking for warm weather in winter, and that makes this an attractive option
Now, I do think that if United launches this route, it’ll almost certainly just be a seasonal route, so maybe it will operate during the IATA northern winter season, from late October until late March. There are much better ways to utilize aircraft in summer, especially given the length of this route.
Bottom line
United Airlines has been granted slots for Dubai Airport, to operate a second daily flight there. The airline currently serves Dubai (DXB) out of Newark (EWR), so it’s anyone’s guess which route United would add next. Given plans to use a 777-300ER, that suggests that Washington (IAD) might be the most likely gateway out of which we see service added.
What do you make of the prospects of United launching a second flight to Dubai?
Could it be from IAH (Houston)?
Crossing my fingers for some seasonal Bangkok flights too!
Give it a year or two. Once NRT-CEB proves successful, BKK shouldn’t be too far behind. And, hopefully year round, not seasonal.
I think this is an excellent decision by United!
This reminds me of Lucky’s classic blog post “Why I Love the Vibe of Dubai.” The online bard of our time!
I get Emirates is better than United. However, the EWR-DXB route, Polaris is in definitely superior to Emirates 2-4-2 biz class on that route.
Emirates' currently deploying A380s with 1-2-1 business seats on IAD-DXB route. In fact there's no plane with 2-4-2 biz on Emirates fleet. I think you meant 2-3-2 777 biz?
Everyone here, this will be a non stop flight, not a direct flight. Please learn the difference, otherwise, you look silly.
No offense, but you should probably follow your own advice regarding looking silly. All nonstops are also direct flights. Not all direct flights however, are nonstop. Just as calling a square "a rectangle" is not incorrect, so is calling a nonstop a "direct."
Manny , Emirates will never join an alliance.
"Never" is a very long time in the airline business. Only a fool would ever say it.
So which alliance will Emirates join. The answer becomes obvious by the day.
IAD would be fantastic because otherwise it's just Emirates to get to Dubai and it's hard to use miles (except for Emirates miles, of course) to book a rewards flight on Emirates, so we don't have any great options. United is certain nowhere near as good as Emirates, but a direct flight that I can actually use my miles on is a winner in my book.
And how stingy is UA on releasing saver award availability, and particularly on international Polaris business!
I've had great luck getting amazing mileage deals on United business class, but I also like to plan way ahead of time, and I am usually pretty flexible with my travels and just want to go somewhere, so I go where the deals take me.
This is not only likely to happen but also will be permanent.
UA has a surplus of widebodies; they made half what Delta made across the Atlantic in 2023 and lost money in the 4th quarter of 2023 across the Pacific when they tried to dump 60% more capacity into the region and only shot themselves in the foot.
The notion that UA held onto widebodies during the pandemic as part of a...
This is not only likely to happen but also will be permanent.
UA has a surplus of widebodies; they made half what Delta made across the Atlantic in 2023 and lost money in the 4th quarter of 2023 across the Pacific when they tried to dump 60% more capacity into the region and only shot themselves in the foot.
The notion that UA held onto widebodies during the pandemic as part of a plan to increase UA's profitability is simply a Scott Kirby fantasy.
UA's India service has been cut dramatically. They are dropping their daytime EWR-DEL roundtrip which did poorly compared to the nighttime roundtrip.
They essentially compete with AA and DL via their JVs to India instead of on UA metal.
DXB is the next best alternative to serve India even though there is no JV so UA only carries the revenue as far as DXB and then has to prorate a chunk of it to EK which is trying to stay relevant in the US and Europe-India market amidst large capacity increases.
We won't see UA try to do in the S. Pacific next winter what it did last year; Japan remains weak. UA's best strategy is to try to compete for traffic in high growth areas of the globe and EK provides a way to do that where UA cannot.
You should stick to Delta. The Cargo pays for all their international flights. Stats that are never revealed.
and yet actual data which UA files with the DOT shows that UA did not make money where you think they did - and it includes all sources of revenue.
UA managed to make $2 billion less than DL in 2023 at the bottom line level.
It would be nice if you and others would quit repeating the same stuff about how well UA does and get to the real facts of why UA underperforms DL.
Throwing excess capacity into markets is a big reason why.
"The Cargo pays for all their international flights."
And you believe that?
It certainly makes a substantial contribution. Back in the day it was said that Qantas and United both had an extremely lucrative air cargo business between Australia and North America that also happened to carry passengers.
United, like all US airlines, breaks out cargo revenue.
In 2023, they reported $1.5 billion in cargo revenue out of almost $54 billion in total revenue.
IOW, cargo amount to less than 3% of UAL's total revenue.
UAL does have the most cargo revenue of the US combination airlines but their cargo revenues are not enough to offset passenger airline losses.
And, again, as much as some people want to believe otherwise,...
United, like all US airlines, breaks out cargo revenue.
In 2023, they reported $1.5 billion in cargo revenue out of almost $54 billion in total revenue.
IOW, cargo amount to less than 3% of UAL's total revenue.
UAL does have the most cargo revenue of the US combination airlines but their cargo revenues are not enough to offset passenger airline losses.
And, again, as much as some people want to believe otherwise, UAL loses money at times of the year on its transatlantic and transpacific systems - and they made $2 billion less than DAL - or less than 60% of DAL's profits despite flying more ASMs.
UAL simply does not do as good of turning all of its flying into revenue as some people think.
None of which changes that I do think another DXB flight will work financially for them but it comes only after they tried to flood the Pacific with capacity during the winter of 2023-24 and all they succeeded at doing was losing money while Delta made as much money in the 4th on a smaller Pacific system as it did in the 2nd and 3rd quarters which were peak travel periods.
United should make as much money as Delta but it is stuff like last winter that proves why that doesn't happen.
When it takes 2 to 3 times for UAL to find profitable places to fly its planes, flights are going to keep changing because UAL is being run by people that understand that United has to make money.
This would a flight resumption as united used to fly from IAD-DXB til 2015
I didn't realize IAD-DXB only flew daily - and in the morning. IAD-DOH is double daily and IAD-AUH is daily evening. Given a UA IAD-DXB would actually have some domestic feed, it makes sense.
With the airspace restriction, I thought UA couldn't get enough of DXB (and the onboard connections by India's Unofficial National Carrier EK). UA went from SFO/ORD/EWR - DEL and EWR-BOM to 1-2x daily EWR-DEL. DXB's a natural spot for VFR given UA's historical traffic volume and client base.
I also think this is very likely to happen. If it was to launch, I'd assume United's flight would depart IAD at night (around 8-9pm), since EK's flight departs in the morning. And if UA has spare aircraft in the winter, it would make sense for UA to have a long turnaround at DXB and depart Dubai around 8-9am to maximize connections from that bank of EK flights. This would allow many more efficient one-stop...
I also think this is very likely to happen. If it was to launch, I'd assume United's flight would depart IAD at night (around 8-9pm), since EK's flight departs in the morning. And if UA has spare aircraft in the winter, it would make sense for UA to have a long turnaround at DXB and depart Dubai around 8-9am to maximize connections from that bank of EK flights. This would allow many more efficient one-stop connections from the DC area to cities where flying Emirates currently would mean a long layover at DXB due to the current EK flights timings.
Would probably leave during the 10 pm bank. IAD is one of the most heavily banked hubs I have ever experienced.
Agree, this will probably be the 10 PM bank. I believe when they used to fly DXB and KWI from Dulles, they were at the 10pm bank. The EWR flight leaves at 9:15pm for comparison.
Your right. I said 8-9pm because I thought for a second that this is the time when Emirates' night flights from the Northeast US depart around. I was wrong, they all depart around 10-11pm (the nonstops to DXB at least). 8-9pm are the MIA and MCO flights (near my home). I also haven't flown through IAD in years, so I forgot about the bank timings. I do think the IAD flight might depart closer to...
Your right. I said 8-9pm because I thought for a second that this is the time when Emirates' night flights from the Northeast US depart around. I was wrong, they all depart around 10-11pm (the nonstops to DXB at least). 8-9pm are the MIA and MCO flights (near my home). I also haven't flown through IAD in years, so I forgot about the bank timings. I do think the IAD flight might depart closer to 11pm though, since there is a huge bank of UA flights which arrive in IAD around 9-9:30pm. Given that it's an international flight, boarding will likely start an hour before departure, so UA would likely schedule the departure near 11pm to get all of those connections. And that flight would still be able to arrive in DXB in time for the night bank of departures from DXB.