United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby was asked about the possibility of a merger with JetBlue, and his answer was surprisingly candid (he also had some interesting comments on American’s prospects of becoming premium)…
In this post:
United CEO seems open to JetBlue merger, or something?
It has been a fascinating time for the airline industry. While Delta and United have been doing really well overall (though they’re now seeing demand falling), other US airlines are struggling. That’s because even Delta and United aren’t making most of their profits from actually transporting passengers.
So there has been a lot of talk about what industry consolidation we could see, if any. There have been a lot of rumors about United being interested in acquiring JetBlue, especially given United’s desire to return to New York (JFK), and expand there.
So at the JP Morgan Conference earlier this week, airline analyst Jamie Baker asked United CEO Scott Kirby about his view on industry consolidation, beyond a possible deal between Frontier and Spirit. Baker prefaced the question by saying “you’re the only CEO that may give us a somewhat direct answer to this question.” Baker was right, and the answer is quite something:
I don’t know. I think it’s probably less likely than others think. JetBlue is the obvious candidate. Joanna is going to be here later today. So you can ask her what she thinks. It’s possible. But there’s a lot of challenges, like I look at it from United’s perspective. We have a great plan that is working and mergers are so hard. They’re disruptive.
Your technology team spends two years on the sideline just integrating like I bet a lot of you use the United app. I bet you all think it’s the best app in the world in airlines because it is. Like that kind of investment just gets harder to do. We got some super cool stuff coming for customers this year. That stuff just gets harder and harder to do.
And at United, well, when the business based business plan is working, like the hurdle to go do it, we don’t need a deal for sure. The hurdle to go do a deal gets a whole lot higher. That said, at least at United, I would like to have a bigger presence on the other side of the river at JFK. But man, all the headache, all the brain damage of buying a whole airline to get that, that’s a lot to do. So, yes, really, I think the ball is going to be in JetBlue’s court.
They’re working out a lot of respect for them. They’re working hard. They’re also an airline that focuses on brand loyalty. So from the customer perspective, they have a lot of those sort of core DNA things that are expected there. Also competing with another airline, JFK and Boston that has that too.
So it’s a tough position for it to be in. So it’s sort of their decision on how to sort through that. That’s the only one that I think really is potentially in play one way or another.
What should we make of Kirby’s merger answer?
I have so many thoughts here. First of all, I just love listening to Kirby. Not only is he obviously such a smart guy who has a pulse on the industry, but unlike so many other executives, he’s willing to say what he really thinks, for better or worse.
That’s such a contrast to his two biggest rivals. Delta CEO Ed Bastian typically has very carefully rehearsed remarks, and rarely says anything you wouldn’t expect, or which rocks the boat. Meanwhile American CEO Robert Isom just typically doesn’t have a whole lot useful to say, since American management doesn’t exactly have a great pulse on the industry (though Isom seems like a super nice guy).
With that in mind, Kirby’s answer is quite something. He points out that mergers are a lot of work and prevent investments and progress in other areas, which is of course true. But he acknowledges that JetBlue is the obvious candidate for any potential merger activity with United, and says that “I think the ball is going to be in JetBlue’s court.” Like, are we all processing that? That’s quite a statement to make, and one wonders what exactly he meant by that.
United’s financial performance has been improving nicely, and United doesn’t need JetBlue. However, two things are for sure.
First of all, Kirby is obsessed (not in a bad way) with returning to New York (JFK), and United can’t easily do that alone. He has been saying that for years, and thinks that leaving JFK was one of United’s worst decisions.
Second of all, Kirby is probably the most ambitious and competitive guy in US aviation. We know how badly Kirby wants United to rise to the first spot and beat Delta, and JetBlue has a huge presence in two Delta hubs. There’s nothing Kirby would love more than to be able to compete directly with Delta in those markets.
We also know that both Boston and New York have affluent populations, and have a lot of potential with credit cards, and that’s a key metric by which United measures hub profitability.
Lastly, we really have to give @xJonNYC credit for his consistent insights. Several weeks ago, he shared a rumor about United being interested in JetBlue, without suggesting that anything was imminent. As usual, he ended up being correct, because clearly United is interested. That’s not to say anything will happen, but that’s just the truth. As much as people like to doubt him, he has an amazing track record.
Oh yeah? Gee, sounds like a rumor I might have heard. "[more industry consolidation?] And does United play a role in it? Scott Kirby: I don’t know. I think it’s I probably think it’s less likely than others think. JetBlue is the obvious candidate… (more..) www.investing.com/news/transcr…
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 11:37 AM
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Bottom line
United CEO Scott Kirby was asked if he sees potential for any further airline consolidation. He stated that if there were to be a deal, it would be with JetBlue, and he said “the ball is going to be in JetBlue’s court.”
While a merger is a huge and challenging headache, we know the strategic value that JetBlue holds. Kirby desperately wants United to return to JFK, and also wants to overtake Delta, and it seems like a JetBlue acquisition could help make that possible.
What do you make of Kirby’s comments about United possibly acquiring JetBlue?
I like a lot of things about United, but certainly their app isn’t one of these things….
Delta’s app is far superior and easier to use… (but DL has started going in the wrong direction with he last redesign)
Musta been sharing a big bag of nacho cheese Doritos with Kameltoe the night before to let a word salad like that escape his lips.
I'm glad this is being discussed as it was just one of the eyebrow raising comments that UA made at the transportation conference. The hub profitability was one and has been sufficiently beaten to death.
The other that remains to be discussed - or should be - is the spat between Kirby and Isom over whether AA is a premium carrier or not and whether the industry has room for AA to be one....
I'm glad this is being discussed as it was just one of the eyebrow raising comments that UA made at the transportation conference. The hub profitability was one and has been sufficiently beaten to death.
The other that remains to be discussed - or should be - is the spat between Kirby and Isom over whether AA is a premium carrier or not and whether the industry has room for AA to be one. There was some interesting back and forth that got way more airtime where it matters than about hub profitability.
Scott Kirby desperately wants to be seen as the smartest person in the room which is part of why he talks so much. The other part is that he is deeply insecure, having been booted from AA - explaining the incessant bad blood between AA and UA - and spends more time talking about getting UA to par with DL in financial metrics than in comparisons to any other airline.
For those that don't think finances matter, Kirby is incredibly focused on them - and yet he hasn't closed the gap w/ DL in 7 years of trying.
as for jonnyc, let's not forget that he whipped up the rumor that UA was going to merge w/ B6 - which sent UA's stock price down so UA had to issue an SEC-filed denial. jon throws all kinds of stuff at the wall, hoping some of it sticks and he was dead wrong about UA and B6
and nothing Kirby or any other UA exec has said gives any indication that UA Is interested in a merger or that they would try to go after B6, let alone succeed.
UA already touts that it is the world's largest airline by ASMs and it carries the most local market revenue from NYC. While there are lots of reasons why UA would like to acquire B6 not just for NYC but for BOS and Florida, it is highly unlikely that a full acquisition would ever be allowed.
As much as some will inevitably tell us how great EWR is as the largest hub in NYC, EWR is at capacity – a reality that UA found in the summer of 2023 when it overscheduled its hub at EWR, leading to a weeklong meltdown across its network.
Port Authority of NY and NJ data shows that DL is virtually tied w/ UA for total passengers on a rolling 12 month basis from NYC – but DL is growing while UA is shrinking as are AA and B6. Those trends will likely continue.
UA execs in the past made bad decisions about using their slots at EWR – which led to an end of slot controls – as well as leaving JFK but UA’s sheer size might prevent it from being able to correct that decision.
The only hope that UA likely has to get back into JFK and grow its NYC presence is if AA or B6 give up enough slots and that is highly unlikely to happen.
Let’s chalk this up a rumor that probably won’t happen and nothing UA or B6 has said changes anything.
Not you talking about meltdowns at EWR, when the largest meltdown was the Delta Crowdstrike incident that happened at ALL DL hubs.
1. you do realize that UA cancelled half the number of flights due to CRWD that DL cxld and yet DL still managed to cancel a substantially lower PERCENTAGE of flights in 2024 than UA?
and UA's summer 2023 meltdown most certainly did spread throughout its system.
and DL's hubs other than ATL during the CRWD meltdown were back up as fast as UA was.
The strength and massive size of ATL is...
1. you do realize that UA cancelled half the number of flights due to CRWD that DL cxld and yet DL still managed to cancel a substantially lower PERCENTAGE of flights in 2024 than UA?
and UA's summer 2023 meltdown most certainly did spread throughout its system.
and DL's hubs other than ATL during the CRWD meltdown were back up as fast as UA was.
The strength and massive size of ATL is its weakness when everything falls apart.
2. None of that changes that the issue here is that EWR is at capacity. UA is not going to push EWR beyond what it can handle which is what happened in the summer of 2023.
And that means that UA is losing ground to DL in NYC.
THAT is why UA desperately wants to find some solution to stop its slide in NYC relative to DL and at the same time hope to slow DL's growth in the NE including at BOS.
you clearly can't accept that reality so you mock the person who actually does get it.
Tim,
facts are both AA and UA were both bottom dwellers when Scott made transition to UA. So yes, Scott was the smartest guy in the room between all of UA and AA management. You can argue about DL if you like.
UA has only gone upwards, its makes more money flying passengers than any other US airline, and the gap with labor costs will be closed with credit card deals they will...
Tim,
facts are both AA and UA were both bottom dwellers when Scott made transition to UA. So yes, Scott was the smartest guy in the room between all of UA and AA management. You can argue about DL if you like.
UA has only gone upwards, its makes more money flying passengers than any other US airline, and the gap with labor costs will be closed with credit card deals they will sign. Clearly Scott is alluding to that.
Slots at EWR will be managed with higher capacity jets removing RJs. You saw that UA is slowly breaking away from Mesa.
The question is who gets their new aircraft, DL for longhaul to compete with US internationally, OR UA for domestic to compete with DL, AA, WN. And yes it looks like DL is getting more widebodies for now but likely short term win for DL
He answered the reporter's question like his wife had just asked him if he thinks the waitress is hot. "Oh, yeah, sure, I can see why some guys would find her attractive, but her voice is so high pitched I just couldn't see how having a conversation with her would work."
If I had to read the tea leaves on this, I'd take it as a message from Scott Kirby to JetBlue's Board of Directors. The message is "I'd buy your airline, but I won't overpay for it". He's clearly not shooting down a merger, but he's letting everyone know that he doesn't have blinders on about the impact and it would have to be financially worthwhile for United to fool with it. I think he...
If I had to read the tea leaves on this, I'd take it as a message from Scott Kirby to JetBlue's Board of Directors. The message is "I'd buy your airline, but I won't overpay for it". He's clearly not shooting down a merger, but he's letting everyone know that he doesn't have blinders on about the impact and it would have to be financially worthwhile for United to fool with it. I think he wants JFK, but he doesn't want JetBlue thinking they can gouge him for it when they're already in financial trouble.
Exactly… that’s how I read it too.
Most interesting commentary for me is his acknowledgement of the pitfalls of mergers and acquisitions. Far too many CEO's paint a rosy picture of M&A and the opportunity it creates for the business because they know ultimately it's an easy (relative) opportunity to try to boost share price in the short to medium term and to expand their compensation and pool of comparable companies that they use to justify pay increases.
They don't typically...
Most interesting commentary for me is his acknowledgement of the pitfalls of mergers and acquisitions. Far too many CEO's paint a rosy picture of M&A and the opportunity it creates for the business because they know ultimately it's an easy (relative) opportunity to try to boost share price in the short to medium term and to expand their compensation and pool of comparable companies that they use to justify pay increases.
They don't typically like acknowledging the very real issues that acquisitions cause and those examples (IT roadmap, business performance, etc.) are very real examples and at least for the IT piece, very much can impact customer experience.
@ jetset -- Agreed that it's cool to see him acknowledge that, and it's one of the many reasons I enjoy listening to just about any interview with Kirby. He doesn't hold back.
While you're right about boosting short term share price and expanding compensation, I do think the need for industry consolidation goes beyond that. With airlines struggling to even break even on flying passengers, the reality is that consolidation is needed to keep...
@ jetset -- Agreed that it's cool to see him acknowledge that, and it's one of the many reasons I enjoy listening to just about any interview with Kirby. He doesn't hold back.
While you're right about boosting short term share price and expanding compensation, I do think the need for industry consolidation goes beyond that. With airlines struggling to even break even on flying passengers, the reality is that consolidation is needed to keep the industry moving, due in part to the power of larger frequent flyer programs.
I have read many times how the FF programs are the money makers for U.S. carriers. However, I wonder if it will be a correct assumption that that will be the case in the future. You (and others) reported constant devaluations of miles for award travel. Heck, not to long ago you made the statement that (at best that I recall) most people were better off with a cash back credit card!
The fact of...
I have read many times how the FF programs are the money makers for U.S. carriers. However, I wonder if it will be a correct assumption that that will be the case in the future. You (and others) reported constant devaluations of miles for award travel. Heck, not to long ago you made the statement that (at best that I recall) most people were better off with a cash back credit card!
The fact of the matter is that, for most people, the “return” on their loyalty will produce negligible benefits.
I, for one, taking your advice. I am emptying my FF accounts in order to close them…and getting a cash back credit cards.
BOS is a plug-and-pay hub for United too, with a large partner presence already. 2x FRA, MUC, VIE, 2x ZRH, YYZ, YUL, YHZ, PTY, BOG, SAL, 2x LIS, IST, 9K in addition to multiple frequencies to every lower-48 hub.
@ PW -- Yeah, there are obviously complexities to a merger, but the upside for United in both BOS and JFK would be almost immediate in so many ways, and the synergies are huge.
Seems to me he is simply just trying to get AA to overpay. They are the only ones really in play for JetBlue.
With where United and Jetblue are currently, I think they actually align quite well for a merger. Wouldn't have said that 5 years ago.
Out of curiosity why would Kirby think that United/B6 merger would be approved? Wouldn't the federal government object to the same thing as they did with the AA/B6 NA?
Granted, this is all speculation at this point, IMO.
Even though Trump might style himself as a populist (and his supporters seem to believe that), he's ultimately pro big business, pro private industry. I don't foresee this administration attempting to block any consolidation should it come to pass.
@Taylor,
Trump is absolutely not pro business. Just ask Jack Daniels, Ford, GM and Stellantis.
What Trump does, is he likes to put his finger on the scale for those that support him and give money to his PAC. He plays favourites.
It's called "pay for play." It's unprecedented and going to destroy our entrepreneurial system where the big guys will crush any new entrants.
this is absolutely true.
let's also not forget that he is a grand vision for America and airlines, in all reality, simply don't come close to being important enough to matter.
let's also not forget that DL and UA/execs - maybe more of the industry - gave $1 million to Trump's inauguration campaign.
just between DL and UA, there are clearly different objectives in terms of consolidation
How many domestic airlines can the customer reasonably sustain? Their dollars ultimately answer the question.
Heh this is not gonna help the night sweats in Atlanta...
The industry is going to head into another round of consolidation because ultimately having 3-4 major airlines with a 2-3 niche players will be required for profitability. The sharks are in the water and they smell blood.
Now this entire they will take us back to 1970 level fares is bullsh.... The industry has a flood of seats that need to be filled and BE fares aren't made to be profitable but to generate incremental...
The industry is going to head into another round of consolidation because ultimately having 3-4 major airlines with a 2-3 niche players will be required for profitability. The sharks are in the water and they smell blood.
Now this entire they will take us back to 1970 level fares is bullsh.... The industry has a flood of seats that need to be filled and BE fares aren't made to be profitable but to generate incremental revenue. You won't fly for $39 to see Mickey but you won't be forced to spend $1000.
To be honest people would be fine with the economy fares if they didn't make it so horrible and pack us all in like sardines and treat you like garbage.
Waiting for another Tim Dunn meltdown. #itsallaboutgeneratingclicks
Not enough trigger words......yet.
Y'all are obsessed with him.
He's not even here, but you're here salivating for him to crash out. Don't act like you hate it, when you're literally waiting for it to happen.
More airline consolidation is the worst idea of the last two decades.
Passengers do not want it and it is highly unlikely the government would allow it.
@ Mike Smith -- Of course consumers don't want consolidation, but what's actually the solution? Most US airlines are losing money, and even Delta and United are barely making money transporting passengers, but are instead making most of their money through loyalty programs. Profitable loyalty programs require scale.
How do you propose we create a sustainable industry, with airlines that aren't constantly in and out of Chapter 11?
Spirit expanded too quickly under poor management, ergo bankruptcy. JetBlue no longer has a compelling product and similarly needs to revamp. Don’t confuse mismanagement with economics, e.g., Avelo, Breeze, Southwest, Allegiant.
@ Gva -- I'm curious, how do you think JetBlue could offer a more compelling product? I'm happy to see the airline introducing first class, but beyond that, part of JetBlue's problem is that the airline offers a superior product that passengers aren't willing to pay for. Real innovation isn't really rewarded in this industry, and it's why we see a constant race to the bottom.
The likes of Brett Snyder at Cranky Flier know better than me but product includes network and schedule. Avelo in particular proves you can innovate on those two fronts very profitably as a startup no less.
If passengers were willing to put in the legwork and money to prevent industry consolidation we wouldn't be hearing about all these airlines with mountains of debt and terrible margins. The interests of passengers isn't diverse enough to support such a diverse set of choices and we see that even without industry consolidation. Southwest is basically introducing basic economy and Spirit is incorporating elements of 'regular' economy with higher priced tickets. To passengers the only...
If passengers were willing to put in the legwork and money to prevent industry consolidation we wouldn't be hearing about all these airlines with mountains of debt and terrible margins. The interests of passengers isn't diverse enough to support such a diverse set of choices and we see that even without industry consolidation. Southwest is basically introducing basic economy and Spirit is incorporating elements of 'regular' economy with higher priced tickets. To passengers the only real difference an airline can have is their route network and reliability
JetBlue should become the Zipair of the US.
They offer the most diverse set of layflat transcon seats domestically to places that wouldn't get them normally like LAS, PHX, SJC, etc. That has a very great niche for premium-lite customers that just want a better seat.