For years, Delta has set the benchmark for profitability in the United States airline industry. We know that United is kind of obsessed with becoming Delta, to the point that you’ll constantly hear United executives referencing what’s going on at the airline. Scott Kirby might even have a life size cutout of Ed Bastian in his office. I dunno.
Last week, Delta was the first major US airline to report its Q2 2024 financial results, and they were a mixed bag. While Delta reported record revenue, net income dropped nearly 30% compared to a year ago. Delta executives also shared a rather bleak outlook regarding overcapacity in the domestic market, which is no doubt being felt by all airlines.
Well, United has now reported its Q2 2024 financial results, and frankly they look quite similar to Delta’s, except in some ways they’re trending upward rather than downward. Has United finally managed to make changes that put it in Delta’s league financially, or was this a lucky quarter?
In this post:
United reports pretty strong financial results
Let me start by once again emphasizing that all US airlines are sounding the alarm about how there’s overcapacity in the domestic market, so the overall outlook for the industry isn’t positive at the moment, and it sure seems to me like profitability may have peaked in 2023, at least for the foreseeable future.
Within that framework, I’d say United actually did a great job in Q2 2024, and the carrier’s financial results look comparable to those of Delta. Let me hit on a few of the highlights of United’s financial results:
- United had operating revenue of $15.0 billion, up 5.7% compared to the same quarter in 2023
- United had net income of $1.3 billion, up 23% compared to the same quarter in 2023
- Total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) was 18.81 cents, down 2.4% compared to the same quarter in 2023
- Cost per available seat mile (CASM) was 16.39 cents, down 4.8% compared to the same quarter in 2023 (though United had a one-time payment to pilots in Q2 2023 related to their new contract, which largely explains that decrease)
Since Delta sets the standard for the industry, how do United’s results compare to those of Delta?
- Delta had operating revenue of $15.4 billion, up 5.4% compared to the same quarter in 2023
- Delta had net income of $1.31 billion, down 29% compared to the same quarter in 2023
- Total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) was 22.31 cents, down 1% compared to the same quarter in 2023
- Cost per available seat mile (CASM) was 19.28 cents, up 2% compared to the same quarter in 2023
As you can see, the airlines are getting closer together in terms of their results. While Delta’s net income was down 29%, United’s was up 23%.
United makes interesting claims about its market position
In sharing these financial results, United emphasizes that premium revenue grew 8.5%, while basic economy revenue grew 38%, compared to the same quarter last year. While growing premium revenue is good, I’m not sure increasing basic economy revenue is necessarily something to brag about?
I mean, it’s good to fill seats, and it’s something that has been necessary for United, as the airline increasingly flies larger narrow body aircraft. However, one could similarly argue that people aren’t choosing to buy up to higher fares, and that’s not necessarily positive.
Like, an airline could just as easily claim a reduction in basic economy revenue as a good thing if more people were to buy up to non-basic fares. I’m pretty sure United would be happy if it had the same load factor it currently does, while having fewer basic economy passengers.
Here are some comments that United CEO Scott Kirby made about these financial results:
“The revenue diversity advantages that we’ve built with our premium customers, Basic Economy customers, and domestic road warriors, on top of the world’s best loyalty program and leading customer service, have propelled our margins to near the top of the industry. Looking forward, we see multiple airlines have begun to cancel loss-making capacity, and we expect leading unit revenue performance among our largest peers in the second half of the third quarter. United has long been preparing for the moment when industry wide domestic capacity would adjust – it’s now clear that inflection point is just 30 days away.”
The comment about unit revenue performance piques my interest. United is claiming that as of mid-August 2024, the airline expects to have the best unit revenue among its peers. United claims this is because the industry overall will decrease capacity after the summer rush, and United feels it is best positioned to take advantage of that.
That’s quite a claim to make, so I’m curious if it turns out to be the case.
Is United finally in Delta’s league financially?
For the “big three” US carriers in recent years, Delta has been the most profitable, followed by United, followed by American. At this point, executives at both Delta and United claim that basically the entire US industry’s profits will come from just two airlines. During this past quarter, Delta and United had comparable financial results.
The question is, can United maintain that momentum, or was this quarter a one-off? For example, in Q1 2024 (typically the toughest quarter of the year), Delta reported a net income of $614 million, while United reported a loss of $194 million loss. Admittedly that was partly due to the grounding of the 737 MAX 9, which impacted United but not Delta, but that doesn’t explain the whole difference, as that’s believed to have cost United around $200 million.
So has something fundamentally changed at United recently, or was it just a good quarter? Admittedly United is the most global of the “big three” US carriers, and long haul premium demand has been very strong, so United has been able to capitalize on that.
That’s awesome for around half of the year, but more challenging for late fall, winter, and early spring, when long haul demand is way down, and there are only so many counter seasonal destinations you can fly to. Last year United experimented with a huge South Pacific expansion, which was worth trying, but wasn’t a total success, as it greatly impacted yields.
Only time will tell how this evolves. Will United more consistently have Q2 and Q3 results that rival those of Delta, while Q1 and Q4 are a different story? Or can United find a way to narrow the gap the rest of the year as well?
Bottom line
Delta has reported its Q2 2024 financial results, and they’re impressive overall. While the airline is having to lower its outlook due to general industry overcapacity, the airline is performing on Delta’s level, which has long been the goal for United management. This is in stark contrast to Q1 2024, and even in contrast to Q2 2023.
Only time will tell if United can maintain this momentum, but it seems like the airline is headed in the right direction.
What do you make of United’s financial results, and performance compared to Delta?
Just checking in to see if you-know-who would jump into the comments section and defend DL like his life (or at least his stock portfolio) depended on it. Boy, did he not disappoint!
the only thing that I ever defend is the truth - which is precisely why so many people get bent out of shape.
United had a great quarter - but is almost always the closest comparison that UA will have with DL and there were a number of factors that reduced DL's profits - including equity investments and the low refinery contribution due to low crack spreads - while UA is benefitting from a lack...
the only thing that I ever defend is the truth - which is precisely why so many people get bent out of shape.
United had a great quarter - but is almost always the closest comparison that UA will have with DL and there were a number of factors that reduced DL's profits - including equity investments and the low refinery contribution due to low crack spreads - while UA is benefitting from a lack of a contract with its FAs while DL employees have had multiple post-covid pay raises.
And, as I noted below, UA touted how well it thought its margin would be industry-leading, and on the metric it chose it beat DL, but DL posted a larger absolute operating profit, and then Alaska came out and topped UA's margin using the metric UA chose.
UA still has a deep-seated need to try to convince everyone that it is the smartest when they frequently come in as #2 - a solid #2 but #2 nonetheless.
When you have UA fankids here try to act like the growth that other airlines do doesn't matter is all made up but UA's is worthy of accolades, it makes for an entertaining comments section.
but any objective reader - of which there are plenty on this site - are capable of sorting it all out
You don't defend the truth, you are a shill for DL and it can never do anything wrong in your eyes. And even if someone points out when you are wrong, you will deflect or move the goal posts to try to justify your "Delta is the best" yapping.
If everyone is laughing at, not with you, then there is a reason for that.
For all the people saying UAL or DAL is better, DAL has a PE of 6.45 and UAL has a PE of 5.73. Both are lousy compared the S&P 500 which is over 27. The market doesn't believe airlines are good investments and doesn't reward these companies with decent earnings multiples.
They are capital intensive companies with high fixed costs and vulnerable to economic conditions, among other things. It's not a really a surprise.
If I dumped a few hundred bucks into any FAANG stock vs Delta, I would have made a lot more money on the FAANG stock.
Airlines have long had a reputation for not being good long-term investments and yet it has been very possible to make money on airline stocks as more than just trading stocks.
and there are plenty of other sectors that are not consistently strong as investments while others such as tech of various forms.
Anyone looked at a 5 year chart for Pfizer recently?
**sigh**
1) United does not want to be regional heavy and have done a lot to move off that, and still are moving off that
2) United has a lower casm because of all those dense widebodies. Doesn't matter if you have 50 or 350 seats on a plane, you only need 2 pilots and can hence drive down casm significantly
3) Those UA A321neos and Max 10s have a great casm and will...
**sigh**
1) United does not want to be regional heavy and have done a lot to move off that, and still are moving off that
2) United has a lower casm because of all those dense widebodies. Doesn't matter if you have 50 or 350 seats on a plane, you only need 2 pilots and can hence drive down casm significantly
3) Those UA A321neos and Max 10s have a great casm and will drive down their already low casm further down
4) United chose to do a lot of international flying. You cannot just handwave their lower casm as "stage lengths"
5) Oscar Munos already had to fight Wall Street on their capacity dumping plans in 2017 and almost lost their careers over it. Tim Dunn is not saying anything new when he says they can't fill up those, they can.
6) UA have added a lot of capacity over the past decade and have only become more profitable. The proof is in the pudding
7) Tim Dunn does not know more than reputable analyst Jamie Baker of JPMorgan Chase, who stands behind UAL
8) If you actually pay attention to the financials, every quarter the gap between UAL and DAL tightens, UAL have been improving and have and re improving at a far faster rate than DAL
9) Did I mention that Wall St have given the tick of approval to UAL again?
10) The best days are still ahead of us. As a proportion of GDP, airline activity is still below its historical average.
11) Did I mention that Tim Dunn owns LUV/Southwest and DAL/Delta stock? He even posts crappy analysis on Seeking Alpha. Very unbiased source
appreciate the analysis here on all points, particularly 5 which i had forgotten - thanks for taking the time to lay this all out so well!
No worries @digital_notmad glad to help
I also do want to note since it's apparently so important to @atl100million that Delta has also upgauged and lowered their casm. They used to have a 300+ fleet of 50 seaters that are now gone.
However, the big difference is that (1) UAL/Uniteds upgauging is more recent, hence they have more room to grow; (2) DAL/Delta is mostly done with upgauging, they don't have much room to drive...
No worries @digital_notmad glad to help
I also do want to note since it's apparently so important to @atl100million that Delta has also upgauged and lowered their casm. They used to have a 300+ fleet of 50 seaters that are now gone.
However, the big difference is that (1) UAL/Uniteds upgauging is more recent, hence they have more room to grow; (2) DAL/Delta is mostly done with upgauging, they don't have much room to drive down their casm further; (3) Ed Bastian has said that he views the domestic market as matured and hence doesn't have much room for growth, and hence there won't be much upgauging; (4) The United Next plan is big and ambitious, and almost unprecedented in the industry. Hence why Wall Street hated the plan at first.
you do realize NO AIRLINE operates the MAX 10?
the strategy that Scott Kirby is copying came directly from Delta. Feel free to tell us what UA is actually doing that is original.
You can't STAND independent analysis.
And UA simply will not achieve the very plan it laid out - their own fleet plan shows a fraction of the growth they said they would have.
UA's fanciful growth plan and conversion of...
you do realize NO AIRLINE operates the MAX 10?
the strategy that Scott Kirby is copying came directly from Delta. Feel free to tell us what UA is actually doing that is original.
You can't STAND independent analysis.
And UA simply will not achieve the very plan it laid out - their own fleet plan shows a fraction of the growth they said they would have.
UA's fanciful growth plan and conversion of aircraft to the standard that DL set years ago is taking years longer than UA set out.
And you do know that I have issued BUY recommendations on UAL stock - but I have changed recommendations on most stock as a result of stock dynamics because THAT IS WHAT THE MARKET DOES.
but, thank you for noting the influence that I have in the world.
RE #7:
I agree, Jamie Baker is highly regarded & an excellent industry research analyst.
However, it should also be noted that JP Morgan Chase has a close business relationship with United for several credit cards similar to Delta’s with American Express.
first, all investors should do their own diligence
second, even direct financial relationships can't undo the fact that DAL and UAL are carrying the weight of the industry from a profit perspective - and UAL's profits are much more seasonal than DAL's while UAL's costs are not comparable because of the UAL FA contract which is not settled.
no amount of financial relationship or not changes the fact that AAL is a weak financial performer and has been since 9/11.
To me it seems American Airlines made a poor decision in not keeping and/or promoting Kirby. He's done a great job at UA. Of course, maybe he felt it was better to leave then to deal with the constant mess AA is in.
did it occur to you that Kirby created a lot of the messes that existed at AA and still do now?
Who do you think made the decision to fly all of the LAX longhaul flying that didn't work out and drained hundreds of millions of dollars from AA?
Kirby is smart and he learned from his mistakes and turned UA around but don't think for one minute that he didn't make tons of...
did it occur to you that Kirby created a lot of the messes that existed at AA and still do now?
Who do you think made the decision to fly all of the LAX longhaul flying that didn't work out and drained hundreds of millions of dollars from AA?
Kirby is smart and he learned from his mistakes and turned UA around but don't think for one minute that he didn't make tons of mistakes over the course of his career. He just happened to learn from them and UA was the beneficiary as his, what, 4th airline.
Good point about Kirby, but to his credit, a big part of being excellent is LEARNING from one's mistakes. Humans make them, and you can either learn from them or double down and stick your head into the sand. AA seems to be doubling down on their idiocy, then delaying their widebody deliveries just in case someone out there thinks they don't look stupid enough. The only good thing they did was, several years ago,...
Good point about Kirby, but to his credit, a big part of being excellent is LEARNING from one's mistakes. Humans make them, and you can either learn from them or double down and stick your head into the sand. AA seems to be doubling down on their idiocy, then delaying their widebody deliveries just in case someone out there thinks they don't look stupid enough. The only good thing they did was, several years ago, buy a ton of new planes when they could buy them for less and actually get them delivered. Now the likes of DL and UA are wishing they had more. AA has the biggest domestic market which can and should feed a world class international network. Their international product is the only one where they are competitive, DL and UA are making good margins because of international, yet AA doubles down on handing off their best customers to them rather than actually realizing they could be doing the same. They somehow manage to have the newest fleet and more mechanics than any airline, yet have by far the most delays and more cancellations than all other airlines combined. Can't make this stuff up. Their entire management team needs to be fired yesterday, especially who is behind the decisions to cut international, cut in flight entertainment, make their seats less comfortable, and being all-around anti-customer and anti-employee.
of course it is good to learn. it is far better to work as part of a team so that you don't make the same mistakes.
Kirby got the gift of a lifetime in being able to move to UA - but he had his eyes clearly on the top job at AA and only moved because others at AA saw what he had done and who he was and passed over him.
United saves a lot of money by not buying tires.
WOW: Delta makes 18.6% more revenue per available seat mile than United.
Proves that there's nothing special about the airline industry: differentiation, and premium product offering, works.
Can you please inform AA about the obvious you just shared! And thanks for sharing this, you are right on point!
Are you talking about the same United? United Airlines? "Solid" financial results?
What they actually announced is a profit DOWNGRADE: United’s projected Q2 profit will be lower than expected: between $2.75 to $3.25 per share, rather than the previously forecast $3.44/share.
just let them enjoy their moment of fame and glory w/o raining on their parade please.
the best part of UA"s earnings release was this item
The company had pre-tax earnings of $1.7 billion, with a pre-tax margin of 11.6%; adjusted pre-tax earnings1 of $1.8 billion, with an adjusted pre-tax margin1 of 12.1%. The company expects pre-tax margin to be near the top of the industry.
which was answered minutes later by Alaska...
just let them enjoy their moment of fame and glory w/o raining on their parade please.
the best part of UA"s earnings release was this item
The company had pre-tax earnings of $1.7 billion, with a pre-tax margin of 11.6%; adjusted pre-tax earnings1 of $1.8 billion, with an adjusted pre-tax margin1 of 12.1%. The company expects pre-tax margin to be near the top of the industry.
which was answered minutes later by Alaska that said
"That's how we brought in record quarterly revenue and achieved a 15.8% adjusted pretax margin that should lead the industry
and just last week, Delta said
We delivered record June quarter revenue and pre-tax income of $2 billion with a 15 percent operating margin.
With this incessant oneupsmanship that exists in the industry and plays out in the PR depts and exec ranks, it is no surprise that some of the airline employees that infest these sites get so bent out of shape when facts are actually presented that shatter their notion of their company's superiority.
AA will soon come out with their earnings, and while we're looking at 12%-15% margins among their competitors, AA's will probably end up around 2%, assuming they don't lose money, and they will pat themselves on the back saying they are doubling down on their unique money-losing formula. Yeah!
Delta paying you in points, cash, trips? What a simp.
United will NEVER catch up with Delta!
You mean just like how Parker said AA would never lose money?
guests can say anything and become someone else tomorrow
really impressed by the trend with UA these days - exciting times ahead no doubt!
I have to laugh when I am mentioned at least half of the time in replies to an article before I ever join the discussion.
Yes, UA did well and is finally reaching comparable levels of profitability as DL– but let’s not forget that UA set the goal of reaching DL’s profitability 7 years ago when he moved to UA. Obviously the pandemic interrupted a lot and he has learned from the mistakes of...
I have to laugh when I am mentioned at least half of the time in replies to an article before I ever join the discussion.
Yes, UA did well and is finally reaching comparable levels of profitability as DL– but let’s not forget that UA set the goal of reaching DL’s profitability 7 years ago when he moved to UA. Obviously the pandemic interrupted a lot and he has learned from the mistakes of others and his own mistakes (which have not been just a few at AA, US and HP) but he also is succeeding because he is doing many things that DL did first and provided a template for him and UA.
As for the actual numbers:
- DL and UA posted very similar revenue numbers. DL is slightly better in RASM improvement in every region except Latin America where the chances are that Latam gets lower average fares than DL and is making it harder for DL to increase RASM.
- DL’s system passenger revenue was higher than UA’s with UA generating higher cargo revenue and DL handedly winning in “other” revenue which includes loyalty/credit card revenue.
- DL is still far larger domestically and UA internationally but the two are moving more in the direction of having networks like each other.
- UA always does better in the 2nd and 3rd quarter than they do in the 1st and 4th quarters because they are not near as strong to the Caribbean. They, like AS, are trying to fix their seasonality but DL is expected to still deliver higher annual profits than UA because of winter strength which UA does not have.
- DL’s results compared to last year were impacted by lower jet fuel crack spreads which means the refinery did not contribute as big of a benefit this year as it has since the beginning of post-covid recovery. And yet DL says it intends to keep the refinery – because it provides a hugely valuable insurance policy and is not losing money – it is just not delivering as much of a jet fuel price benefit to DL – but still more than 10 cents even this quarter.
- DL also took a hit on its equity investments of $200 million. There was discussion about DL’s equity investments and this shows that DL is a financially stronger and more stable airline than its equity partners and their performance does impact DL’s bottom line.
- DL also noted that the Olympics are costing it about $100 million in revenue in Paris; LH reduced their guidance so the rest of continental Europe may be softening as much as Paris but UA has so far not said that.
- The biggest cost difference remains that UA, like AA, has not settled with its FAs while DL has increased its FA and all personnel salaries once again. AS also just reported and said that their new FA contract will hurt 3rd quarter earnings and it is certain that UA will take a hit, esp. given that retro for AA and UA could hit the better part of $1 billion – not unlike what was paid to the pilots who settled even before profits started to increase.
And UA also noted that it will not hit 1000 mainline aircraft this year – in line with what DL is saying. UA will retire a few 319/320s and a few RJs but will also only get about 25 more MAXs for the rest of the year, 4 787s, and 18 or so 321s. The huge influx of capacity at UA is not happening and probably won’t happen next year but is keeping capacity growth down and allowed UA to pay down debt, something it could not have done if it took as many planes as it wanted.
DL and UA are still growing at similar rates which says that DL can deliver growth even with a smaller order book and less financial exposure. DL’s credit rating was increased by Fitch this week so it will reduce their borrowing costs.
DL will receive substantially more widebodies over the next couple of years which means international growth for DL is likely to be higher than domestic growth for UA.
DL’s Amex relationship continues to be the big differentiator in total revenue; MRO revenue is flat due to parts shortages. Both will increase faster than UA’s non-transportation revenue.
And now the rest of the industry will report and none of them will have numbers near as good as AS, DL and UA.
We’ll see if Ben picks on the 7/22 DL announcement but I have just two solid guesses which are likely intertwined: Latin America and MIA.
"I have to laugh when I am mentioned at least half of the time in replies to an article before I ever join the discussion."
You are. But it's not for good reasons. Most people would have a little introspection if that happened to them. You seem to revel in your buffoonery.
it's more like me throwing pearls at swine.
Feel free to discuss the issues I raised in my post.
Help me out. Which of the two are you?
And there it is folks. How about you sit back and have some cookie dough batter instead?
"but the two are moving more in the direction of having networks like each other."
Are they though? United is growing domestically, but aside from a few subsidized or incentivized routes to Oceania, or adding frequencies to the same major European hubs it's always served, where is Delta really growing on longhaul?
Their absence in India is very glaring, considering that both United and American are there, and they both also have strong middle eastern...
"but the two are moving more in the direction of having networks like each other."
Are they though? United is growing domestically, but aside from a few subsidized or incentivized routes to Oceania, or adding frequencies to the same major European hubs it's always served, where is Delta really growing on longhaul?
Their absence in India is very glaring, considering that both United and American are there, and they both also have strong middle eastern connecting partners to serve the secondary destinations in that market as well.
Delta is nowhere to be found, which is odd, seeing as they have the longest ranged (and arguably most efficient) aircraft in the US fleet, but seem scared of addressing that market.
feel free to actually read data and statistics, not your preconceived notions of what you think is happening.
DL grew domestic capacity in the 2nd quarter by 8% while UA grew by 5.3%
DL grew Atlantic by 2% while UA grew by 0.2%
DL grew Latin by 19% while UA grew there by 15.4%
DL grew the Pacific by 30% while UA grew there by 37%.
On a system basis, DL grew...
feel free to actually read data and statistics, not your preconceived notions of what you think is happening.
DL grew domestic capacity in the 2nd quarter by 8% while UA grew by 5.3%
DL grew Atlantic by 2% while UA grew by 0.2%
DL grew Latin by 19% while UA grew there by 15.4%
DL grew the Pacific by 30% while UA grew there by 37%.
On a system basis, DL grew by 8%, UA by 8.3% (DL's capacity could have been 8.0 to 8.4% but they don't report tenths of percents)
DL and UA are growing their networks and in each region by similar rates
This huge growth advantage that UA thinks it will have over all competitors has not materialized - and I don't think it will.
DL is growing its international network as fast as UA while DL is not giving up its domestic share to UA. UA might take share from other airlines but DL is clearly going to take share from those airlines as well.
DL will still be larger domestically while UA will be larger internationally but the growth in DL's international network will make a bigger difference to UA than UA's domestic growth will to DL.
Tim, that is an extremely misleading comparison which you know given that: 1) United has had limitations for some time in adding new aircraft and routes due to the FAA 2) the MAX groundings 3) the Boeing deliveries
So yes when United has not been able to grow for a chunk of this year and had a portion of its fleet grounded then it and Delta have grown at a similar rate - very obvious...
Tim, that is an extremely misleading comparison which you know given that: 1) United has had limitations for some time in adding new aircraft and routes due to the FAA 2) the MAX groundings 3) the Boeing deliveries
So yes when United has not been able to grow for a chunk of this year and had a portion of its fleet grounded then it and Delta have grown at a similar rate - very obvious that will change once the orders start coming through albeit tbd how that additional capacity will fare so your conjecture is completely off
Blake,
there are very few airlines that are receiving all of the airplanes they have on order because the MAX, 787 and Geared Turbofan are issues for every airline that operates them.
Delta is not immune to the GTF or Rolls Royce issues.
And UA's fleet is older than DL's; both are retiring aircraft but you can look at the fleet guidance each are providing at least for this year that DL is...
Blake,
there are very few airlines that are receiving all of the airplanes they have on order because the MAX, 787 and Geared Turbofan are issues for every airline that operates them.
Delta is not immune to the GTF or Rolls Royce issues.
And UA's fleet is older than DL's; both are retiring aircraft but you can look at the fleet guidance each are providing at least for this year that DL is comfortable retiring aircraft - some 757s, 767s and A320s in order to not get into the position WN is in of having to perform expensive overhauls on older aircraft just to keep them in service a few more years.
UA will have to start diverting larger and larger portions of its new airplanes for fleet replacement; Kirby just wanted to get a lot of growth in very quickly with large orders now before replacements have to happen or UA will be spending on the same type of overhauls that WN is paying for.
and then you get down to Airbus vs. Boeing. DL's growth is largely coming from Airbus while the opposite is true for UA. Boeing is simply going to have a harder time delivering what was promised.
Jon Ostrower just said on The Air Current that DL has such a tight relationship with Airbus that alarm bells go off in France when a DL plane is delayed - which is DL's CEO just said that they are comfortable they can get the airplanes they need.
DL invested in used airplanes and can get what they want from Airbus. UA ran to Airbus after the AS crash and Boeing slowdowns hoping to come back w a big new order - and got 35 additional aircraft over 2 years - nowhere near what Boeing will not deliver but was promised to UA.
and, again, UA is counting on growing its domestic share at the expense of other carriers; DL has demonstrated for 15 years that it is not giving up anything to UA in the domestic market and has grown as fast or faster.
And AA and WN also have no interest in giving up domestic share to UA. and they are also gunning for whatever share is given up by weaker carriers.
DL's growth in international markets relative to UA is going to be as fast or faster than UA's in domestic markets.
As much as you or others want to believe otherwise, it will be easier for DL to grow in international markets than for UA to grow in domestic markets.
UA's fantasy of grabbing all of the growth at everyone else's expense was fanciful but nowhere near reality.
Delta’s international growth rates as quoted in percentage don’t really reflect the comparatively low base of ops between the 2. Europe is the area of comparable scale with UA still leading. DL in Asia can do a sizable percentage gain by simply adding a flight. U.S. Africa growth has caught or exceeded Delta. Delta needs to get further into global network reach. AA is way behind outside of Latin America.
"feel free to actually read data and statistics, not your preconceived notions of what you think is happening."
Oh, I have, which is why it's so easy to see through the nonsense you're posting in response.
"DL grew Atlantic by 2%"
We should all stand in awe of such growth.
"DL grew Latin by 19%"
That's mostly in shorthaul, when the question was clearly articulated in regard to longhaul.
"DL grew the Pacific by 30%"
..."feel free to actually read data and statistics, not your preconceived notions of what you think is happening."
Oh, I have, which is why it's so easy to see through the nonsense you're posting in response.
"DL grew Atlantic by 2%"
We should all stand in awe of such growth.
"DL grew Latin by 19%"
That's mostly in shorthaul, when the question was clearly articulated in regard to longhaul.
"DL grew the Pacific by 30%"
Considering how measly their Pacific operations are, that's basically adding one or two routes, which is why their (subsidized) Oceania expansion was already mentioned in the question. What else do they have, yet another addition to a partner hub (TPE) in a route that already existed. Astounding.
and yet on a system basis as well as in each region, the growth is comparable.
If UA is larger but grows by a comparable rate as DL, then UA's total size in that region will be larger - which is true in the Pacific.
to Europe and Africa, DL is larger.
The difference is the Middle East other than TLV and India which DL does not serve which is why UA's Africa...
and yet on a system basis as well as in each region, the growth is comparable.
If UA is larger but grows by a comparable rate as DL, then UA's total size in that region will be larger - which is true in the Pacific.
to Europe and Africa, DL is larger.
The difference is the Middle East other than TLV and India which DL does not serve which is why UA's Africa presence is larger
In Latin America, the two are similarly sized - until DL decides to do something to take advantage of its JV with Latam.
As hard as it is for you to understand, DL is growing at the same rate which means DL's domestic network will be getting proportionately larger than UA's even while UA's domestic network is smaller than AA and WN's. Meanwhile DL's international network is growing at the same rate as UA's and no one else is chasing UA's international growth so DL will end up closer to UA internationally than UA will end up closer to DL domestically.
"As hard as it is for you to understand"
LOL, you give yourself far too much credit.
You seriously think we don't notice how you keep trying to duck the specific mention of "longhaul growth," by constantly interchanging it with "international," whenever that suits DL's favor?
Since you need a reminder, my specific question was "Where is Delta really growing on longhaul?"
Blathering about shorthaul to Latin America, about proportionality to anything...
"As hard as it is for you to understand"
LOL, you give yourself far too much credit.
You seriously think we don't notice how you keep trying to duck the specific mention of "longhaul growth," by constantly interchanging it with "international," whenever that suits DL's favor?
Since you need a reminder, my specific question was "Where is Delta really growing on longhaul?"
Blathering about shorthaul to Latin America, about proportionality to anything United is doing, and about foreign partner metal growth, does not address that question. It's just your glaringly obvious attempt to deflect from the answer: which is that aside from partner hubs and subsidized Oceania routes, they aren't growing their longhaul portfolio worth a damn.
and yet the numbers say the opposite - but you don't want to see it because you are addicted to the mindset that UA has a corner on the longhaul market and that no one else can or will grow.
Actual data shows that DL does have a much larger domestic network than UA, that AA, DL and WN are all going to grow their domestic networks to keep UA from growing its domestic share,...
and yet the numbers say the opposite - but you don't want to see it because you are addicted to the mindset that UA has a corner on the longhaul market and that no one else can or will grow.
Actual data shows that DL does have a much larger domestic network than UA, that AA, DL and WN are all going to grow their domestic networks to keep UA from growing its domestic share, and DL is the only other US airline that is growing its longhaul international network.
DL will receive more new widebody capacity this year than UA and the chances are high that the number of 787s that UA is expecting in 2025 will not materialize.
DL is growing international and will have a bigger impact on UA's international network than UA's domestic growth will impact DL - or any other of the big 4 airlines for that matter.
"and yet the numbers say the opposite"
What numbers???? Show us numbers that show DL is growing its longhaul outside of partner hubs + Oceania.
Not what their domestic network is doing.
Not what United is doing.
Not what wide bodies they're receiving.
Not your future predictions.
None of those distractors that you compulsively feel the need to use to deflect from an otherwise straightforward question.
The question is, where are they...
"and yet the numbers say the opposite"
What numbers???? Show us numbers that show DL is growing its longhaul outside of partner hubs + Oceania.
Not what their domestic network is doing.
Not what United is doing.
Not what wide bodies they're receiving.
Not your future predictions.
None of those distractors that you compulsively feel the need to use to deflect from an otherwise straightforward question.
The question is, where are they growing their longhaul, outside of partner hubs and Oceania. Show these "numbers."
If your answer includes anything about United or domestic anything, you're just bullshitting to distract, again.
you are arguing and you haven't bothered to actually read the earnings statements that came from both Delta and United?
They both spell out the capacity, RASM and yield change by each of the 4 regions - Atlantic, Latin, Pacific and Domestic. UA divides Atlantic a couple extra ways but the 4 regions are the DOT reportable regions.
If you can't accept that AA, DL and UA are all massive companies that are growing all...
you are arguing and you haven't bothered to actually read the earnings statements that came from both Delta and United?
They both spell out the capacity, RASM and yield change by each of the 4 regions - Atlantic, Latin, Pacific and Domestic. UA divides Atlantic a couple extra ways but the 4 regions are the DOT reportable regions.
If you can't accept that AA, DL and UA are all massive companies that are growing all throughout their networks while also cutting other routes, then you have no business participating in aviation social media.
And, specific to the Pacific which you seem to think is UA's right to own, DL has added SEA-TPE which started in June - so only operated for a part of the 2nd quarter - and ATL-ICN #2 which operated for a longer period but still not the entire 2nd quarter.
It took me no time to determine what has been added but the point is that, no matter whether you or I or anyone else can recite all of the routes involved in the data, Delta is growing its network in each region at a similar RATE as United.
United will grow the size of its domestic network but at least 3 very capable and large domestic-focused airlines - AA, DL and WN - all intend to hold onto and grow their share regardless of what UA or any LCC/ULCC does while DL is the only other airline that is growing at the same rate as UA around the globe.
DL's international growth will benefit it relative to UA much more than UA's domestic growth will benefit it relative to AA, DL or WN.
It's really not a difficult concept for any intelligent, rational person who is committed to facts to understand.
Boring, boring and even more boring. Let's see hands of people who read past the fourth line? I thought so......
"Let's see hands of people who read past the fourth line? I thought so....."
I really have to wonder if this dude is either slow, or just trolling.
I ask him to show DELTA'S LONGHAUL GROWTH to anything beyond partner hubs and subsidized Oceanian runs; and his response is to talk about ATL-ICN (partner hub route), SEA-TPE (partner hub route), and then segue off into domestic growth and United's network, neither of which have anything...
"Let's see hands of people who read past the fourth line? I thought so....."
I really have to wonder if this dude is either slow, or just trolling.
I ask him to show DELTA'S LONGHAUL GROWTH to anything beyond partner hubs and subsidized Oceanian runs; and his response is to talk about ATL-ICN (partner hub route), SEA-TPE (partner hub route), and then segue off into domestic growth and United's network, neither of which have anything to do with the question at hand.
Amazing, really.
then let's take out all of UA's network to Star hubs and see what is left... it ain't much.
You do realize how much capacity UA flies to Tokyo, Singapore and Seoul is still a Star carrier hub?
In fact, DL doesn't have a partner to Australia or New Zealand while UA does so by your definition, DL has actually grown more in the S Pacific than UA.
You clearly are doing everything you...
then let's take out all of UA's network to Star hubs and see what is left... it ain't much.
You do realize how much capacity UA flies to Tokyo, Singapore and Seoul is still a Star carrier hub?
In fact, DL doesn't have a partner to Australia or New Zealand while UA does so by your definition, DL has actually grown more in the S Pacific than UA.
You clearly are doing everything you can to refuse to admit how great UA is and belittle anything else that anyone else does - and the only thing your carveouts prove is that you can't stand to admit that UA does not have a corner on either the international market or growth and DL - which was the largest carrier across the Pacific right after the NW merger - doesn't intend to remain half the size of UA with service to 4 cities.
And DL also intends to grow in Latin America w/ its Latam JV which UA would dearly love to have but doesn't.
and, domestically, UA will have a much harder time gaining domestic market share because AA, DL and WN ALL have good reason not to cede market share to UA.
But you believe whatever distortions you need to believe in order to sleep tonight.
Yet, you're still prattling about United, shorthaul Latin America, and Domestic networks; NONE of which I've mentioned (other than to mock your distraction-by-tangent technique).
I ask a straightforward question about Delta's nonpartner longhaul, which you still have not (because let's face it, cannot) answer.
It's hilarious at this point.
because you want to fixate on the number of passengers on the 7 am flight from Des Moines to Chicago vs. Atlanta instead of admitting that these are massive companies with massive route systems.
And you DESPERATELY want to hold onto the last vestiges of UA's dominance which was certain to be challenged because you can't understand that if UA can make money in a market, so can other carriers. and for-profit opportunities will pursue...
because you want to fixate on the number of passengers on the 7 am flight from Des Moines to Chicago vs. Atlanta instead of admitting that these are massive companies with massive route systems.
And you DESPERATELY want to hold onto the last vestiges of UA's dominance which was certain to be challenged because you can't understand that if UA can make money in a market, so can other carriers. and for-profit opportunities will pursue profit-enhancing opportunities.
I don't slight UA for its desire to grow in the domestic market place but you clearly are incapable of admitting that DL will grow in international markets. Not might but will.
"instead of admitting that these are massive companies with massive route systems."
This is getting so weird.
I can't be unwilling to admit anything anything about their routes, when I haven't compared their routes at all.
Nor am I somehow "holding on to the last vestiges of UA's dominance" when I don't like that airline and don't fly them, and couldn't possibly care less where and what they dominate.
I simply asked you a...
"instead of admitting that these are massive companies with massive route systems."
This is getting so weird.
I can't be unwilling to admit anything anything about their routes, when I haven't compared their routes at all.
Nor am I somehow "holding on to the last vestiges of UA's dominance" when I don't like that airline and don't fly them, and couldn't possibly care less where and what they dominate.
I simply asked you a question about Delta's longhaul routes (which if you could answer, you'd do so by simply listing such specific routes).... but since you can't, you keep, for very very very strange reasons, deflecting to United. Something I haven't brought up at all.
This is sooo incredibly strange, lol.
it is only strange because you think **I** should list DL's route changes in order to validate YOUR need to know what DL has grown.
YOU and ONLY YOU are the one with the problem because YOU can't admit that United's dominance of the international network is not sacrosanct.
When you get your head out of your backside and recognize that, if UA can make money in a market, so can other airlines, YOU WILL realize that the only strangeness is yours.
Great analysis. Thanks.
Are you suggesting the United is also a PERFECT airline?? LOL
you clearly do not understand the concept of stage length and how it affects RASM and CASM and ultimately profit per ASM.
DL has shorter stage lengths with its larger domestic network which means it has higher RASM and CASM.
The fact that the two are reporting similar profits with a similar sized fleet - even though UAL flies more ASMs and burns more fuel is the real comparison.
this should be to yolo below
@Tim, You made a very good point - even if it wasn't directed at me. LOL
Delta notably has much higher CASM and RASM than United. But the premium it gets in RASM should outpace its CASM, so this really means that United's strong network expansion has paid off.
This really shows how Delta's lack of network and overly risk-averse growth strategy is holding it back.
Delta won't be around in 10 years-United will buy them.
you do realize that there were talks post 9/11 for DL to buy UA to get access to Asia but DL decided against it - even if the feds had allowed it?
And none of the big 4 will ever be allowed to merge or even swap significant assets with each other - regardless of who is at 1600 Penn
This is fake news. Delta is always #1!
UA is still operating under an old FA contract that is being negotiated. Once a new contract is settled, presumably at a WN or higher level, how much of an impact will that have on UA's bottom line? DL's number already reflect higher FA wages.
thank you.
It will be very significant.
UA's labor costs for the quarter were slightly below DL's and will go up with an FA settlement.
UA will fork over a wad of cash - which they have - for retro but won't make up for the time value of money that its FAs lost waiting for a new contract.
It’s worth mentioning once AA & UA ratify new FA contracts DL will have to match in order to keep leverage against union formation. Almost certainly the new contracts will go above DL’s current $79 top out pay. So any lower cost for DL you predict is most certainly not going to materialize.
That’s fairly easy to estimate. FAs should expect around a 30% pay increase. United doesn’t release how much the current FA payroll costs but we know there are 28k FAs. If the average FA makes 50k a year that comes to 1.4 billion on payroll each year. A 30% pay increase on that would add an additional 420 million per year.
I just assume the lower I value the frequent flyer program, the better the airline is doing financially
Regarding the increase in Basic Economy revenue, I think the point Kirby is making is that they are more effectively competing with the ULCCs. Before the larger mainline planes entered the fleet, it was difficult to effectively segment the cabin.
With so much more mainline flying, they can market to the premium customers while also offering the BE seats, further hurting the performance of the Sprits and Frontiers who don’t have the product and...
Regarding the increase in Basic Economy revenue, I think the point Kirby is making is that they are more effectively competing with the ULCCs. Before the larger mainline planes entered the fleet, it was difficult to effectively segment the cabin.
With so much more mainline flying, they can market to the premium customers while also offering the BE seats, further hurting the performance of the Sprits and Frontiers who don’t have the product and schedule UA offers, especially as the cabin reconfigurations and new aircraft deliveries continue.
Sometimes it’s not who you’re flying but who you’re taking away from competitors.
Kirby has said for years that United NEXT was built around the notion that would -and have to - take share from lower cost carriers. There is no other way they can increase gauge as much as they plan to do in an industry where economy travel is not delivering revenue growth as much as premium cabins without taking share from someone.
The problem for UA's theory is that DL is growing its domestic capacity...
Kirby has said for years that United NEXT was built around the notion that would -and have to - take share from lower cost carriers. There is no other way they can increase gauge as much as they plan to do in an industry where economy travel is not delivering revenue growth as much as premium cabins without taking share from someone.
The problem for UA's theory is that DL is growing its domestic capacity at the same rate as UA so at least DL is not willing to let UA take share.
WN is also growing capacity faster than UA or DL and they overlap more with United than Delta.
AA has said it has grown domestic capacity too fast so is probably the carrier that will be cutting capacity going into the fall but can't get the premium revenues - domestic or international - that DL and UA get.
AS is seeing good revenue growth so the industry is splitting into those that are seeing good financial results - with premium revenue growth - and those that are on the other side.
As a consumer (and not a shareholder), all anyone should care about is the quality and value of the products and services delivered . . . including the loyalty program. If they can deliver on those, I hope they make money hand over fist and reward their employees handsomely.
In this five thousand word essay, I will write about how Delta is the best airline ever. To begin with…
Just waiting for Tim Dunn's Merkin now.
Revenge Travel Runs Out of Force, Hurting Airlines’ Profit Goals
“It’s price that’s the weakness,” Sheila Kahyaoglu, an aviation analyst at Jefferies said on Bloomberg Television. “Airlines are blaming it on overcapacity, and not on consumer weakness. I think it’s a case of the latter rather than the former.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-18/revenge-travel-runs-out-of-force-hurting-airlines-profit-goals
Hey, my son also has a life sized version of Ed in our basement. What’s wrong with that?!
Does it have a surprised look on its face, mouth agasp?
RE: “The question is, can United maintain that momentum, or was this quarter a one-off? For example, in Q1 2024 (typically the toughest quarter of the year), Delta reported a net income of $614 million, while United reported a loss of $194 million loss.”
As a reminder, United’s Q1 2024 results were adversely impacted by $200 million by the 3-week grounding of its then 79 Boeing 737-9 MAX aircraft in the aftermath of Alaska Airlines...
RE: “The question is, can United maintain that momentum, or was this quarter a one-off? For example, in Q1 2024 (typically the toughest quarter of the year), Delta reported a net income of $614 million, while United reported a loss of $194 million loss.”
As a reminder, United’s Q1 2024 results were adversely impacted by $200 million by the 3-week grounding of its then 79 Boeing 737-9 MAX aircraft in the aftermath of Alaska Airlines 1282 inflight door plug blowout on Jan 6.
So, while a $6 million net income (had United’s 79 737-9 MAXes not been grounded for 3-weeks) is not nearly as robust as Delta’s Q1 2024 net income of $614 million, in not operating any 737 MAX models, Delta was not impacted by the misfortunes caused by Boeing’s problem plagued 737 MAX program.
UA has a much more seasonal revenue and profit stream - strong summer/weak winter than DL which is why DL is still expected to generate stronger revenue and profits on an annualized basis.
and DL's revenue is strengthened by its stronger credit card relationship and its MRO business - but Delta Tech Ops is not delivering because of parts shortages - while the refinery sometimes reduces DL's fuel bill by $1 billion per year or...
UA has a much more seasonal revenue and profit stream - strong summer/weak winter than DL which is why DL is still expected to generate stronger revenue and profits on an annualized basis.
and DL's revenue is strengthened by its stronger credit card relationship and its MRO business - but Delta Tech Ops is not delivering because of parts shortages - while the refinery sometimes reduces DL's fuel bill by $1 billion per year or more - but will likely only help $250 million this year.
So, DL and UA's numbers right now are as close to apples to apples but they still don't account for UA's weaker winters relative to DL.
He posts more frequently and more words than Ben.
My theory on United Basic Economy is that they would much rather have a Basic Economy customer than having someone pay the premium for a standard ticket. Basic Economy catches even the smartest of travelers off guard, especially with the no carry-on bag rule.
People can behave very irrationally on airline ticket purchases.
The basic economy customers are booking away from carriers like Frontier and Spirit and to airlines like United because they provide better service. Passengers have finally caught on. That's why United is happy with their increase in BE customers because it's eating away at the ULCCs.
I forecast Dunnderstorms approaching the comments section.
brace yourself, go to the nearest Dunn proof Shelter before it is too late
Oh dear I fear the delay in you know who points towards a rather large post that will probably break the blog’s hosting server.
Are the DL and UA absolute TRASM and CASM numbers apples to apples comparisons, or are they affected by average stage lengths for each airline?
I guess, either way, the increases or decreases in the numbers, compared to previous quarters and years, are good comparisons.
@ Mark -- I think United has a lower CASM and TRASM than Delta in part because the airline operate (on average) longer flights, due to the size of its long haul network.
I'm a bit keen to also know how the more fuel efficient fleet factors into a lower CASM as well. I know United has a huge debt load with the huge aircraft order as well, and we haven't seen Delta invest in that side of the business as strongly as United has, and when Delta does what are the financial optics going to be?
Now for the love of god, I'd really love for...
I'm a bit keen to also know how the more fuel efficient fleet factors into a lower CASM as well. I know United has a huge debt load with the huge aircraft order as well, and we haven't seen Delta invest in that side of the business as strongly as United has, and when Delta does what are the financial optics going to be?
Now for the love of god, I'd really love for UA to invest in soft product on Polaris. You cannot be a hub airline out of SFO and not invest in solid CA wines, absolutely criminal
Delta's fuel efficiency is about 7% better than United's - in part because of UA's greater use of regional jets, esp. small regional jets - as well as because of the 777-200/ER which is the most fuel INEFFICIENT widebody in the US airline fleet on a per seat basis (besides AA's 77Ws which have 40+ fewer seats than UA's)
DL has a younger fleet and has invested in aircraft where it makes the most sense...
Delta's fuel efficiency is about 7% better than United's - in part because of UA's greater use of regional jets, esp. small regional jets - as well as because of the 777-200/ER which is the most fuel INEFFICIENT widebody in the US airline fleet on a per seat basis (besides AA's 77Ws which have 40+ fewer seats than UA's)
DL has a younger fleet and has invested in aircraft where it makes the most sense - longhaul domestic and international. and DL has higher gauge (average aircraft size) which gives it an efficiency advantage. UA is doing that now but DL has a significant head start.
and Ben is right about the difference between DL and UA's RASM and CASM due to stage length.
Oscar Munoz and Scott Kirby did a great job for an airline that was on track to dehub all their hubs.
They only have room to improve. All those lower casm A321neos and 737 Max 10s will further drive down costs and allow more seats to be sold, boosting revenue.
They have already added a lot of capacity over the past decade (remember all those regionals on those hub to hub flights?) and Wall Street have been very satisfied by UAL.
"We know that United is kind of obsessed with becoming Delta, to the point that you’ll constantly hear United executives referencing what’s going on at the airline. Scott Kirby might even have a life size cutout of Ed Bastian in his office. I dunno."
That was beautiful. Seriously. Beautiful.
I think what’s more likely is that Scott Kirby has a life size cutout of Scott Kirby in his office.
We all know who has a life size cutout of Ed.
Share some pics, Tim.
SHOTS FIRED.