Southwest Airlines has just placed a large aircraft order, and you’ll never guess which plane the airline chose (I’m just kidding — of course you will).
In this post:
Southwest boosts Boeing 737 MAX order
Southwest Airlines and Boeing have today announced an order for an additional 108 Boeing 737 MAX 7 aircraft. This supports Southwest’s fleet modernization strategy, and provides flexibility for the airline to expand its fleet. This complements Southwest’s existing Boeing 737 MAX order, which I’ll talk more about below.
For context, the 737 MAX 7 is the smallest but longest range version of the 737 MAX family. The plane can fly an impressive 3,800 nautical miles, and can seat up to 172 passengers (though that’s in a very dense configuration, which Southwest is unlikely to have).
Currently the 737 MAX 8 and 737 MAX 9 are in service with many airlines, while both the 737 MAX 7 and 737 MAX 10 haven’t yet been certified. However, certification for the 737 MAX 7 is expected to happen in the coming months, possibly even before the end of the year.
Here’s how Southwest CEO Bob Jordan describes this order:
“We have a long history with Boeing, dating back more than 50 years to the day we commenced service with three Boeing 737 aircraft serving three cities. They’re part of our history and part of our future as we continue to recognize the many efficiencies and cost savings of a single fleet.”
Southwest has over 500 Boeing 737 MAXs on order
As it stands, Southwest has an outstanding order for 573 Boeing 737 MAXs, comprised of:
- A firm order for 302 Boeing 737 MAX 7s, to be delivered between 2024 and 2031
- A firm order for 271 Boeing 737 MAX 8s, to be delivered between 2023 and 2029
Meanwhile Southwest’s current fleet has 814 planes, comprised of:
- 400 Boeing 737-700s
- 207 Boeing 737-800s
- 207 Boeing 737 MAX 8s
As you can tell, at this point Southwest has its fleet renewal strategy all figured out. If the airline eventually retires all previous generation Boeing 737s, it will have 780 Boeing 737 MAXs. Wow!
Southwest’s interesting Boeing 737 MAX variant choices
I don’t think anyone is surprised that Southwest is sticking to being a Boeing 737 operator in the long run, since there are huge synergies to having a single aircraft type. What I find most interesting is how the airline is exclusively sticking to the two smaller variants of the jet, rather than the two bigger variants of the jets.
To me, the specific selection of aircraft variants is one of the most fascinating aspects of fleet planning and revenue management. Regardless of which aircraft family we’re talking about, on the one hand, logically you’d think that you’d go for a larger variant of a jet, since it potentially has much higher capacity:
- The incremental cost of ordering a larger variant of the jet isn’t huge
- Larger jets have much lower unit costs, so the amount of revenue you need per seat to breakeven is lower
- No matter which Boeing 737 MAX variant you choose, two pilots will be needed, and they’ll probably be paid the same; however, for a larger variant you might need an extra flight attendant, which is an incremental cost
- With the demand for air travel continuing to grow over time, and airports being more congested, you’d think that you’d want larger variants of aircraft, to meet growing demand
Yet ordering larger variants is a double edged sword. The reality is that in a lot of markets, it’s just hard to fill 200+ seats on an aircraft. Having so many seats often leads to airlines needing to discount fares, which can destroy margins.
In many ways, this is the issue that some ultra low cost carriers are facing in the United States. They’re increasingly getting larger variants of aircraft and are cramming more seats than ever before into them, and they’re struggling to fill those seats. It’s especially tough when you’re serving point-to-point markets, and aren’t using a hub-and-spoke system.
Bottom line
Southwest Airlines has upped its Boeing 737 MAX 7 order by 108 jets. At this point Southwest’s outstanding 737 MAX order consists of 573 jets, and when you add in the 207 737 MAXs already in the fleet, the airline has firm plans for a fleet of 780 737 MAXs by 2031.
The scale of Southwest’s order for a single aircraft type is unlike what we see at any other airline. I just continue to be surprised by the sole focus on the smaller variants of the 737 MAXs, rather than the bigger ones.
What’s your take on Southwest’s Boeing 737 MAX order?
they ordered more designed flawed crashing airplane is scary. why they won't order a350 and isn't designed to not do costly tests and approvals.
I think the MAX 7 variant is great for Southwest to compete in smaller markets and short runway airports (e.g. SNA) without sacrificing fleet commonality. I wonder why they don’t also go for the MAX 200, MAX 9, or MAX 10 though to hit higher trafficked routes.
The extra F/A argument is moot. Southwest could easily add a larger variant and add up to 200 seats maximum and still only have 4 F/A as they do now on the max8.
Larger variants mean additional FA’s, and the training of 20,000 FA’s on a new aircraft. There aren’t separate crew for separate aircraft. All aircraft become part of WN’s point-to-point network. A —9 or -10 might seem great for BWI-SEA; but the continuing flight to BOI doesn’t need that capacity. All aircraft flow into the same system. The MAX 7 will hold 150 pax, 7 more than the current 700. It will be efficient for developing...
Larger variants mean additional FA’s, and the training of 20,000 FA’s on a new aircraft. There aren’t separate crew for separate aircraft. All aircraft become part of WN’s point-to-point network. A —9 or -10 might seem great for BWI-SEA; but the continuing flight to BOI doesn’t need that capacity. All aircraft flow into the same system. The MAX 7 will hold 150 pax, 7 more than the current 700. It will be efficient for developing longer routes perhaps to South America; or more frequencies to some of the HI Islands, from yet more existing WN cities. But 9s and 10s would require an additional FA and more crew training. That’s an expanse WN won’t find efficient for its plan.
A MAX 10 with the same pitch as the MAX 8 enjoys would result in a 200 pax cabin and would still only need 4 FA's. Ideally with a 4th Lav.
Would love to see SWA refurbish a Boeing 757 and fly it out of Chicago (ORD) for “blue light special” longer distance routes. Bet it would sell out all the time!
why would they go with a 757 when that is a gas guzzler when they are going for efficiency?
Great recap. WN need the smaller variant to navigate and compete effectively in the niche markets. I think AA should follow suit as they plan a future narrowbody order. There is a large gap between the Embraer regional jet AA employs through its subsidiaries/regional outfits and the 737-800. A Max 7, a far more capable plane than the older A319, would be a perfect replacement, and help AA compete in smaller markets and possibly allow...
Great recap. WN need the smaller variant to navigate and compete effectively in the niche markets. I think AA should follow suit as they plan a future narrowbody order. There is a large gap between the Embraer regional jet AA employs through its subsidiaries/regional outfits and the 737-800. A Max 7, a far more capable plane than the older A319, would be a perfect replacement, and help AA compete in smaller markets and possibly allow routes to Europe from its small hub in Boston. Southwest has a lot to gain from the Max 7 - it seems very promising.
Yet the reason the -800/8M significantly outsell the -7M, is because it doesn't weigh much more, or have that much less range/performance, but offers extra seats.
Same thing with A330-900 vs A330-800. And 777-300ER vs 777-200LR.
The slight extra weight or decreased performance is, for the overwhelming majority of carriers, completely outweighed by the extra seats and extra cargo space.
IIRC, at full capacity the largest 737 variants (-9/-10) require longer runways for take-off (especially on hot days) than available at Chicago Midway, Burbank and Orange County.
Additionally, during inclement weather, the runways at these airports may be too short for landing for the largest 737 models.
While Southwest could exclude these airports for the -9/-10 models, it would seem that to date it does not see enough of a benefit to justify adding a...
IIRC, at full capacity the largest 737 variants (-9/-10) require longer runways for take-off (especially on hot days) than available at Chicago Midway, Burbank and Orange County.
Additionally, during inclement weather, the runways at these airports may be too short for landing for the largest 737 models.
While Southwest could exclude these airports for the -9/-10 models, it would seem that to date it does not see enough of a benefit to justify adding a larger and third variant beyond the -700/-7 and -800/-8 sizes it already has.
But, might the -8200 (Ryanair’s high capacity -8 variant) offer an opportunity to upgauge capacity while avoiding the runway length constraint that the -9/-10 models have?
Perhaps those with more precise knowledge can add more details regarding the take-off and landing performance at airports with shorter runways for the largest 737 variants and how that impacts fleet decisions at airlines like Southwest.
The induction into service of the MAX 7 will be the turnaround that Southwest has been waiting for.
They have been forced to guess when the MAX 7 will enter service and convert orders to the MAX 8.
WN has used a hub and spoke system more and more to make up for having to use the MAX 8 but their route system needs a 150 seater.
Many of the 737-700s are...
The induction into service of the MAX 7 will be the turnaround that Southwest has been waiting for.
They have been forced to guess when the MAX 7 will enter service and convert orders to the MAX 8.
WN has used a hub and spoke system more and more to make up for having to use the MAX 8 but their route system needs a 150 seater.
Many of the 737-700s are very close to timing out so WN needs the MAX 7 in service. Like. Yesterday.
Trust we will see it in revenue service early in 2024
I wonder if they are looking at adding more destinations vs sending alot of flyers to major ones? Or even adding more Caribbean and nearby international locations?
Lucky, you are correct. The order for the 737 MAX 7 makes sense- it seats 150 people and can serve both medium and large US cities, with just 3 FA's.
What is odd is Southwest's choice of the Max 8 vs the Max 9. The cost for the Max 9 is incremental and has the same number of FA's. This appears to be Southwest's real error when making their purchase mistake years ago
What would also be interesting is whether any airline will order MAX 200S and put in less seats. What disadvantage would that have vs having the same config on a standard MAX8?