Delta is currently making a huge push to expand across the Pacific, claiming it wants to beat United there. It’s a region in which Delta has been weak in recent years, at least when it comes to serving anything beyond Seoul Incheon (ICN), the hub for joint venture partner Korean Air.
A few months ago, I took a look at the data of how poorly Delta is performing across the Pacific, following the “big three” carriers reporting their Q2 2026 earnings. With all three of the airlines having now reported their Q3 2026 earnings, I’d like to take a look at the latest. Are things getting better or worse for Delta?
The math on Delta’s expansion isn’t pretty right now
With American, Delta, and United, having all reported their Q3 2026 earnings, I think it’s interesting to look at how all airlines did across the Pacific in the quarter, at least directionally. I’m not doing this to pick on Delta (I swear), and I’ll explain more later. But first let’s look at the actual math, and thanks to JonNYC for bringing this up.
I’d like to compare performance across the Pacific in the last two quarters between American, Delta, and United. Just to define the terms here:
- Yield is the passenger revenue divided by the number of revenue passenger miles flown, so it reflects what people are actually paying to fly, and doesn’t account for empty seats
- PRASM is the passenger revenue per available seat mile, and you calculate that by taking the total passenger revenue and dividing it by the number of seat miles, so it factors in empty seats
- ASMs refers to available seat miles, meaning the total number of miles flown by a plane multiplied by the number of available seats
- Load factor refers to the percentage of seats actually filled on flights
Below is a comparison of Q3 2026 year-over-year Pacific performance for American, Delta, and United.
| Q3 2026 details | American | Delta | United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield | +14.8% | +7% | +10.8% |
| PRASM | +11.3% | +5% | +10.9% |
| Capacity (ASMs) | +6.6% | +8% | +5.0% |
| Load factor | −2.6 points | −2.0 points | +0.1 points |
As you can see, there’s a major outlier here. To put this into basic terms:
- American saw the biggest increase in the average fare paid, with a significant increase in revenue per available seat, despite a decrease in load factor; yield growth more than double outpaced capacity growth, which is excellent
- Delta saw a bigger increase in capacity than in yield and revenue per available seat mile, despite fares being up so much across the board
- United had very balanced growth across the Pacific, adding a modest amount of capacity, while being the only airline to see load factor go up, and also commanding higher fares
As you can see, Delta was the outlier here, and was the only airline where capacity growth exceeded yield growth.
Below is the chart for Q2 2026. As you can see, Delta was also the negative outlier then, but the situation has gotten even worse since then.
| Q2 2026 details | American | Delta | United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield | +17.3% | +7% | +10.9% |
| PRASM | +15.1% | +7% | +14.0% |
| Capacity (ASMs) | +8.2% | +8% | +4.1% |
| Load factor | −1.7 points | −1.0 points | +2.3 points |
What can we make of Delta’s issues across the Pacific?
Please hear me out, because I’m not writing this to rag on Delta. Quite the contrary, I’m happy to see an airline growing across the Pacific and trying to compete with United.
Airline data is fascinating because it’s both endless and insightful, but it doesn’t tell the full story, given the complexity of airline revenue performance. When I look at airline data, what I find most interesting is directional trends among competitors.
Delta is a very well-run airline, all things considered, and has been the most profitable US carrier for many years now. In most areas, Delta outperforms competitors. So it’s really interesting to see one region where Delta has now lagged both United and American in two consecutive quarters.
I have to imagine these two quarters weren’t exceptions, and that Delta’s performance will keep getting worse before it improves, as the airline continues to add new routes. Now, that’s largely fair enough, because it takes time for growth to become profitable. I think I have two takeaways here.
First, I can rationalize why American has sort of given up on Asia, and has such a minimal presence:
- It’s really hard to make money as a US airline flying across the Pacific unless you have the perfect hub and have other advantages, like being the established player
- American actually seems to be doing well in Asia for the limited number of routes that it operates
Second, one wonders if Delta will just struggle as it continues to grow, or if Delta has a major, structural disadvantage to United, which it can’t overcome. Delta’s split hub strategy between Los Angeles (LAX) and Seattle (SEA) is just much more poorly positioned than United’s primary hub in San Francisco (SFO), in terms of pricing power, local loyalty, connectivity, etc.
Delta recently added Hong Kong (HKG) flights, and it’s a market United serves four times daily. So the fact that Delta’s performance has only worsened while United’s performance has continued to remain strong despite the new competition isn’t exactly a great sign. United CEO Scott Kirby probably wasn’t wrong when he mocked Delta’s recent transpacific expansion.
Bottom line
Delta’s numbers across the Pacific aren’t pretty. While both United and American are seeing yield growth significantly outpace capacity growth, the opposite has now been true for Delta for two quarters in a row. I don’t think this should come as much of a surprise, since it takes time to become profitable in new markets.
However, one can’t help but wonder if this is just a temporary issue that will solve itself with time, or if Delta has a structural disadvantage here that it won’t be able to overcome. We’re only at the very early stages of Delta’s transpacific growth, if the airline is actually serious about overtaking United.
What do you make of Delta’s Pacific situation?
I am gobsmacked to hear this.
LAX is not the place to grow TPAC. Lots of capacity, tons of competition, and yields always under pressure.
SEA? AS is absorbing a lot of losses to grow but it has the upper hand there, and will win the battle. A recession will spell the end of Delta's SEA ambitions.
They're growing revenue and capacity is up. I would guess TPAC is a very small percentage of revenues so I doubt they care if they're behind on that percentage if they're ahead on the bigger pieces of pie.
It’s currently 13% of total revenue, so not too small.
Plus DL has said they want to grow considerably in the region, with some saying they want to overtake UA TPAC.
Not off to a good start, and probably sheds light on why they cut so much TPAC in the first place.
Also, having the A350 as their main TPAC plane doesn’t give them a lot of flexibility to open new markets....
It’s currently 13% of total revenue, so not too small.
Plus DL has said they want to grow considerably in the region, with some saying they want to overtake UA TPAC.
Not off to a good start, and probably sheds light on why they cut so much TPAC in the first place.
Also, having the A350 as their main TPAC plane doesn’t give them a lot of flexibility to open new markets. The Air Show discussed how the 787 is the best TPAC plane, balancing range and capacity. Based on these figures, looks like they were onto something.
@Mark, agreed on the 787 vs the A350. Fuel burn and lift performance over the 787 is meaningless unless you can fill those seats with good yielding passengers.
Ultimately what's going to happen in Asia with the A350, is what DL does in Europe, just feed the partner hubs.
If you're flying DL in the Pacific, hope you like ICN.
But if they're leading in that other 87% of revenue, or the majority of it, then they probably don't mind the 13% bucket.
True, except UA has overtaken DL in total revenue and outperforms DL in their most contested market, NYC.
Additionally, most of DL’s financial advantages come from the fortress hub pricing and credit card revenue agreement with AMEX.
With UA starting negotiations on a new contract with Chase, one of DL’s main advantages will disappear, which seems to be why DL is trying to diversify into TPAC. It will be a challenge though.
Although UA’s TPAC growth percentage is lower than DL’s, DL is starting at a much lower base so the absolute amount of growth is still lower than it is at UA, making DL’s financial underperformance even more surprising.
Seems like DL needs to choose the location of its TPAC megahub and go with it, like UA has in SFO, though neither of DL’s options are great.
Additionally, DL’s two options will get worse...
Although UA’s TPAC growth percentage is lower than DL’s, DL is starting at a much lower base so the absolute amount of growth is still lower than it is at UA, making DL’s financial underperformance even more surprising.
Seems like DL needs to choose the location of its TPAC megahub and go with it, like UA has in SFO, though neither of DL’s options are great.
Additionally, DL’s two options will get worse as AS continues to expand in SEA and AA gets ready to grow in LAX.
It’s ok Ben I’m sure someone will be here shortly to tell you that actually when delta loses money it’s STRATEGIC and when other airlines lose money it’s BAD. Duh!!!
The rise of Alaskan airlines has been brutal for Delta's Pacific ambitions. They're fighting a losing battle in Seattle for hub dominance, and Los Angeles is a never ending battle ground as well. However, Delta is kind of forced to keep up the fight forever. There just aren't many good Pacific hubs on the west coast; United has cornered San Francisco, and Alaska is beating them in Seattle.
That being said, Delta has plenty of...
The rise of Alaskan airlines has been brutal for Delta's Pacific ambitions. They're fighting a losing battle in Seattle for hub dominance, and Los Angeles is a never ending battle ground as well. However, Delta is kind of forced to keep up the fight forever. There just aren't many good Pacific hubs on the west coast; United has cornered San Francisco, and Alaska is beating them in Seattle.
That being said, Delta has plenty of money, so they can keep up the fight for as long as they want.
The new SEA-NRT route definitely won’t improve those numbers.
Geography is not on Delta's side here. SEA is way closer to most Asian destinations that Americans care about than LAX is (I know, you Californians have a hard time getting your head wrapped around that). Alaska is going to eat Delta's lunch for trans-Pacific flights more and more as they continue to expand.
Delta also constantly craps on their most loyal customers...does anyone really bother with collecting worthless SkyPesos? I sure don't. As look...
Geography is not on Delta's side here. SEA is way closer to most Asian destinations that Americans care about than LAX is (I know, you Californians have a hard time getting your head wrapped around that). Alaska is going to eat Delta's lunch for trans-Pacific flights more and more as they continue to expand.
Delta also constantly craps on their most loyal customers...does anyone really bother with collecting worthless SkyPesos? I sure don't. As look as they're so worthless you need to bring a nearly a million of them for a decent business class seat across an ocean, I'll return the same contempt that Delta has always shown me.
Economically it is a tough time to grow right now. Being a new entrant makes it harder. Hopefully they have enough corporate contracts and high-spending loyalists to keep these routes alive.
UA backs up the West coast to HKG nonstops with beyond service to BKK and SGN.
this was as predictable as the sun rising in the east; i cannot fathom how DL execs even considered this strategy (such as it is) let alone decide to lock the airline inside the woodchipper and turn it on
I think weakness of DLs west coast hubs is on full display here. UA's dominance at SFO coupled with far better connectivity both increases O+D traffic from the Bay Area while also greater connectivity to secondary cities vis-a-vis a much larger hub operation than DL can ever create at LAX or SEA without a major competitor dehubbing to make room. One also wonders if DL is also not seen as a premium carrier on NA-Asia...
I think weakness of DLs west coast hubs is on full display here. UA's dominance at SFO coupled with far better connectivity both increases O+D traffic from the Bay Area while also greater connectivity to secondary cities vis-a-vis a much larger hub operation than DL can ever create at LAX or SEA without a major competitor dehubbing to make room. One also wonders if DL is also not seen as a premium carrier on NA-Asia routes when compared to Singapore, Cathay, Eva and other highly-regarded Asian carriers.
And of course Delta's trans-Pac experiment at PDX was a total failure.
Are we supposed to care? How exactly does it affect either you and me?