For a long time now, we’ve known that American Airlines is in negotiations on a new wide body aircraft order. While there still hasn’t been a formal announcement, executives at the airline are in recent times being a bit more transparent about what they’re thinking, and it’s not necessarily what everyone would expect.
Long story short, we should see a wide body aircraft order in the very near future, and it could be for up to 65 planes from either Airbus or Boeing, with deliveries in the 2030s.
American ordering wide body planes, Airbus and Boeing in running
Among the “big three” US carriers, American has by far the weakest long haul network, especially when you take Latin America out of the equation. As I view the long haul network, American primarily likes to fly to joint ventures markets, to Latin America, and then do some seasonal summer flying to Europe (of course that’s a slight oversimplification, but you get the point).
I’d say we’ve gotten to this point due to a combination of some strategic blunders (retiring the Boeing 757s, Boeing 767s, and Airbus A330s early), along with American’s failed strategy of over-focusing on domestic flying, as part of Vasu Raja’s high conviction El Paso world domination strategy.
Looking at American’s wide body fleet, the airline has 67 Boeing 777s (47 777-200ERs and 20 777-300ERs), along with 70 Boeing 787s (37 787-8s, 33 787-9s). At this point, American’s remaining wide body order book includes just 19 787-9s, so that’s not a whole lot of planes.
As a point of comparison, Delta has 78 wide body planes on order, while United has a jaw-dropping 135 wide body planes on order. So yeah, American is increasingly falling behind when it comes to its wide body fleet, not to mention you need to order planes with quite a bit of lead time, so if you want to become more competitive, that takes time.
In recent months, insider JonNYC has shared how American is looking to place a new wide body aircraft order soon, and that this could be with either Airbus or Boeing.
This week, American executives have spoken more transparently about this, as reported by FlightGlobal:
- American is looking to order up to 65 planes to replace existing Boeing 777-200ERs; let me emphasize that’s an “up to” number, so that could include firm orders and options
- The airline is in the “seventh or eighth inning” when it comes to making a decision (if you know as little about sports as I do, that’s a baseball reference, and there are nine innings, or so I’m told) 😉
- These planes are expected to be delivered in the 2030s, which isn’t surprising, given the current backlog for the popular models from Airbus and Boeing; for that matter, American is even retrofitting 777-200ERs with new interiors, so expect them to stick around for years to come
- The order “could go either way” between Airbus and Boeing, so Airbus has some upside here, given that American currently has an all-Boeing wide body fleet
Which wide body aircraft will American select?
This is where I think it gets interesting. Ultimately there are four wide body aircraft families to choose from — the A330neo, A350, 777X, and 787. Which could American order?
I think one important thing to remember is that American executives simply don’t want very high capacity long haul aircraft. They’ve said it repeatedly, and for that matter, if United can’t make a next generation plane bigger than the 787-10 work despite its huge global network, then American likely can’t either. So I believe that the 777X and A350 are highly unlikely to be chosen:
- It would be shocking if American orders the 777X, despite that recent rumor we saw; the plane isn’t even certified, and it’s “too much plane” for American anyway, especially as the airline increasingly focuses on lower capacity planes
- I also don’t see American ordering the A350; both variants are larger than American’s 787-9s, the plane is expensive, and there’s quite a bit of demand for it
So that leaves us with the 787 and A330neo. Logically, you’d think American would just keep increasing its 787 fleet, and would even order the 787-10, the largest variant of the plane. That seems like the obvious choice — it’s higher capacity, very fuel efficient, and has amazing per seat economics. For that matter, American eventually needs to replace its aging 777-300ERs, and it’s not like the airline is using the full range of those planes.
The catch is that the 787 is expensive, and there’s a long wait to get the planes. For example, Delta recently ordered the 787-10, and the first delivery will only happen in 2031. Now, the timeline might not be an issue, since American is only looking at ordering planes for the 2030s.
That brings us to the A330neo, which might seem like an odd plane for American to order, but I actually increasingly think we could see that become a reality. Compared to the 787, the plane is a bit cheaper, a bit smaller, and it can also be ordered with less lead time.
While it might seem like a wild card, it does strike me as the most likely option for American, if it doesn’t go with the 787. I think there’s another hint here. Nat Pieper is American’s fairly new Chief Commercial Officer, and he spent a decade at Delta, including being VP of Fleet Strategy & Transactions.
This coincided with when Delta ordered the A330neo, and Pieper very much seems to be calling the shots at American nowadays (which is a good thing). So obviously he’s a fan of the A330neo, and that’s another reason to think things could play out this way.
It’s just amazing to me how much money American has wasted on its long haul fleet strategy. American retired its entire (ex-US Airways) A330 fleet at the start of the pandemic, even though those planes were largely still quite new.
American had the opportunity to bring those back, but just decided not to. Instead, those planes are now being acquired by Vietnam’s Sun PhuQuoc Airways. It’s just so bizarre how American has so much debt, yet is obsessed with flying new planes, despite not actually having a lot to show for it in terms of passenger experience.
Like, American has the youngest fleet of the “big three” US carriers, but when you step onboard the average American plane, you wouldn’t know it. That’s because American has spent all its money on the metal and new engines, rather than on the passenger experience. The airline is of course now trying to reverse that (including installing seat back TVs on narrow body planes), but it definitely feels a bit like it’s “too little, too late.”
So anyway, we’ll mark this as “developing” for now, but I imagine that either we’re going to see a 787-10 order, or an A330-900neo order.
Bottom line
American is nearing a new wide body aircraft order, which isn’t necessarily surprising, given the carrier’s lack of an order book. The airline is expected to order up to 65 planes from either Airbus or Boeing, with deliveries expected in the 2030s. Based on what JonNYC has shared, we should sort of “expect the unexpected,” so my guess is that this won’t exclusively be a 787 order (which otherwise seems like the most logical option).
I think a 777X or A350 order is highly unlikely, given their size and cost. Logically, you’d think American would keep growing its 787 fleet, and maybe even order the 787-10, given its great economics (despite American’s lack of desire for large long haul aircraft).
However, I think the wild card would be an A330-900neo order, since that actually seems like a pretty good fit for American, at least based on its (questionable) strategy. The plane is more readily available, not terribly high capacity, and a bit cheaper than the alternatives.
What wide body plane do you think American will ultimately order?
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