Historically, Air France-KLM Flying Blue has been one of the most useful frequent flyer programs for crossing the Atlantic, both thanks to the attractive award pricing, plus the decent amount of award availability.
However, it sure seems like in recent times, business class award availability across the Atlantic has dried up. Several readers have reached out regarding this, so I decided to do a bit of research.
In this post:
Flying Blue’s nearly non-existent business class awards
Most recently, a Flying Blue lifetime Platinum member reached out to me to point out the complete lack of saver business class award availability through Flying Blue, saying that this has wiped out the program for him in terms of value, and he now finds it to be totally useless. He asked me to look into this and report back, so that’s exactly what I’m doing.
Let me say that in general, it’s hard to take a “static” look at award availability, since obviously an important consideration is how fast people snag awards. So I’ll do the best I can, but obviously I can’t speak to internal numbers as to how many people have already booked awards on a particular flight, etc.
I decided to pull up business class award availability through Flying Blue from all gateways in the United States, searching Paris (CDG) as the destination. For what it’s worth, Flying Blue starts releasing award availability 359 days out. So, how many total business class award seats are there over that period?
- There are zero award seats from Boston (BOS), Chicago (ORD), Dallas (DFW), Detroit (DTW), Los Angeles (LAX), Miami (MIA), Minneapolis (MSP), New York (JFK), Orlando (MCO), Phoenix (PHX), and San Francisco (SFO)
- There is one day with a business class award seat from Atlanta (ATL)
- There is one day with a business class award seat from Houston (IAH)
- There is one day with a business class award seat from Newark (EWR)
- There is one day with a business class award seat from Seattle (SEA)
- There are two days with business class award seats from Denver (DEN)
- There are three days with business class award seats from Washington (IAD)
I’m no mathematician, but you don’t even have to be able to count to 10 to figure out how many flights have saver award space through Flying Blue over the next year. 😉 That’s obviously really rough, and I think it’s safe to say that saver business class award availability is basically non-existent.
Keep in mind that between Air France and KLM, the airlines operate nearly 50 daily flights to the United States. So to do some very rough math, let’s assume the airline has 30 business class seats per flight (that’s intentionally conservative), meaning there are around 550,000 business class seats across the Atlantic per year. Nine of those seats are available as awards, which comes out to 0.000016% of inventory.
Now, Flying Blue has dynamic award pricing, so you can just about always redeem miles for a flight, it’s just a function of what the cost is. In theory, saver level business class awards are supposed to cost 60,000 miles. The actual pricing available is almost always more than twice that much, and often way more than that. For example, on the New York to Paris route, not a single day has a business class award for under 139,500 miles.
So we’ll see how this evolves, but based on how things currently stand, I wouldn’t consider Flying Blue to be a useful program for transatlantic business class awards, because availability has gotten really bad. Of course everyone should crunch the numbers for themselves and research availability for what they’re looking for, but the current situation isn’t good.
Look, no one expects that there’s going to be saver level business class award availability on a majority of flights, as the economics don’t make sense. However, saver availability has gone from being something you can find with effort and flexibility, to basically being like winning the lottery.
A couple considerations with Flying Blue availability
While Flying Blue’s saver level award availability is worse than I’ve ever seen before, there are a couple of things I should point out.
First of all, Flying Blue uses married segment pricing for awards. So while there are zero saver level business class awards from New York to Paris, you’ll see some amount of saver award availability if continuing onwards to some other destinations. For example, if you instead set Madrid (MAD) as the destination, you’ll suddenly find a total of seven dates across the year with award availability. That’s still really bad, but seven is more than zero.
Furthermore, award availability seems to be a bit better if you don’t touch the United States, even if flying to or from Paris. For example, while I wouldn’t say availability is great, there at least an average of a handful of days per month where you’ll find saver award availability in other long haul markets.
Keep in mind that Flying Blue recently increased award costs, with the promise of more award availability. Maybe the argument could be made that availability improved in some other markets, but it’s definitely not the case for the United States.
Bottom line
Saver level business class award availability with Air France-KLM seems to have reached a new low, at least across the Atlantic. While the program used to be good about making saver level award seats available, that’s not the case right now.
I hope this is temporary, and that award availability doesn’t stay this bad permanently. Until something changes, I’d approach Flying Blue with caution when it comes to transferring miles, assuming you’re based in the United States.
Not just flying Blue! The Qantas Frequent Flyer program is worse. Near impossible to get a Qantas premium seat out of Australia a year out! Airlines have every right to do what they are doing but in doing so they are taking a risk of killing the goose that lays the golden egg! Over the last few years the Qantas program had been more profitable that Qantas international division. I for one have switched off...
Not just flying Blue! The Qantas Frequent Flyer program is worse. Near impossible to get a Qantas premium seat out of Australia a year out! Airlines have every right to do what they are doing but in doing so they are taking a risk of killing the goose that lays the golden egg! Over the last few years the Qantas program had been more profitable that Qantas international division. I for one have switched off engagement with the program and freeing myself from the loyalty handcuffs and it's liberating to give the middle finger to Qantas after being a member for 30 plus years where loyalty is not receipricated!
Airlines don't care about loyalty of giving a good redemption for award tickets. All they care about is BC travelers that are allowed to purchase J seats. I say this as a 5 year running DM on Delta (all coach seats, all BIS miles). Looked at going to HND off-season, HSV-ATL-HND RT was 880k miles for D1. I can book JAL via AA for 60k miles OW in J.
for someone who's been looking daily for the last three weeks, the real issue is the dynamic pricing system sucks. i been looking for a specific america to cdg route in July, so peak season. It literally was 125k one way for every day until very recently and now it's 110k. Like, how is pricing working? It's getting closer to July they haven't sold it, so now they lower it by ten percent to see...
for someone who's been looking daily for the last three weeks, the real issue is the dynamic pricing system sucks. i been looking for a specific america to cdg route in July, so peak season. It literally was 125k one way for every day until very recently and now it's 110k. Like, how is pricing working? It's getting closer to July they haven't sold it, so now they lower it by ten percent to see if someone bites? Is this just a case of Flying Blue monetizing cash tickets more til the last minute and they become one of those programs that release seats 48hrs out? I know from experience they are very aggressive in selling J upgrades to even eco fliers.
Shame on KLM. Period.
I still find Flying Blue better than Delta. 128K for business class out of SEA is not bad, compared to 400-500K on Delta. And there are more transfer bonuses available to FB from Amex and Capital One than there are to Delta (are there any ever transfer bonuses on Amex to Delta)?
I find Air France business class comparable to Delta One. Air France phone customer service is superior.
The wild card for us will...
I still find Flying Blue better than Delta. 128K for business class out of SEA is not bad, compared to 400-500K on Delta. And there are more transfer bonuses available to FB from Amex and Capital One than there are to Delta (are there any ever transfer bonuses on Amex to Delta)?
I find Air France business class comparable to Delta One. Air France phone customer service is superior.
The wild card for us will be the upcoming D1 SkyClub in SEA, which won't be accessible with AF business class -- although regular SkyClub in SEA I like already.
Out of LAX where typically business class was 70-80k the lowest today is now 120k if very lucky up to 700k …from best program to last sadly ..
My searches show business awards in the 300k range despite advance or off season searches so I totally agree the flying blue program is pretty useless now. I have seen some premium awards for 40-50k if you are extremely flexible but forget affordable business.its also impossible to price a ticket using miles for an upgrade since you must buy a ticket before you can find out if upgrades are available or what they cost which seems also useless.
Really it's time for frequent flyers to smell the coffee and forget 'loyalty' just as the airlines have done and instead just buy the cheapest business and first tickets with whoever and stop pretending the airlines care for your business. After all BA and Iberia have just destroyed their FF programme. I will have a final year of Gold card from April but I will only in the future be flying if they are the...
Really it's time for frequent flyers to smell the coffee and forget 'loyalty' just as the airlines have done and instead just buy the cheapest business and first tickets with whoever and stop pretending the airlines care for your business. After all BA and Iberia have just destroyed their FF programme. I will have a final year of Gold card from April but I will only in the future be flying if they are the cheapest and will get most of the other benefits on the basis i am flying first or business with them or whoever.
There are options available for anyone willing to put some thought and/or effort into it. Short haul premium class tickets are often very poor value (e.g. four-figure sums for a return from the UK to Turkey/Greece, even more than that for similar journeys within Africa), so status is worthwhile for anyone who does a lot of short flights. Work out whether you get it through UX segment runs, flying Discover eurobusiness to the UAE, paid...
There are options available for anyone willing to put some thought and/or effort into it. Short haul premium class tickets are often very poor value (e.g. four-figure sums for a return from the UK to Turkey/Greece, even more than that for similar journeys within Africa), so status is worthwhile for anyone who does a lot of short flights. Work out whether you get it through UX segment runs, flying Discover eurobusiness to the UAE, paid RJ status matches or whatever and just crack on.
Hoarding miles obviously is a very different thing, and it's very risky indeed so it should be avoided.
Not surprising and seems they are more in line with Delta and other Skyteam airlines now. All of the loyalty programs have become big money makers for the companies and the benefits for the customer have gone down.
Snagged MEX-CDG-LIS for 60K in October last month. Live in AZ so flight to MEX is doable.
Didn’t realize how lucky I was to snag two early October PHX-AMS 60k saver awards last month.
The issue here in my observation is plenty of availability
if you ware willing to use 500k to 900 k one way in business class.
Who is paying that much to redeem only fools.
I haven't seen a saver award unless a partner award in coach
Unless you leave from the East Coast in the shoulder season good luck getting anything under 400k in business from the West Coast.I wont be...
The issue here in my observation is plenty of availability
if you ware willing to use 500k to 900 k one way in business class.
Who is paying that much to redeem only fools.
I haven't seen a saver award unless a partner award in coach
Unless you leave from the East Coast in the shoulder season good luck getting anything under 400k in business from the West Coast.I wont be booking with them as they are now a criminal enterprise of major greed
Add to that high cancellation & change fees
Flying Blue is shooting at fish in a barrel
Sad
I’m not sure if the situation is that bad. I did a quick search of JFK to CDG for the summer. The low price fairly often I saw was the 139,500 price - similar to what Ben posted. I also saw plenty of 253,000 to and 264,500. I would call 139,500 one way business class to Europe a fair, market price these days. OMAAT values Flying Blue miles at 1.5 cents. TPG values them at...
I’m not sure if the situation is that bad. I did a quick search of JFK to CDG for the summer. The low price fairly often I saw was the 139,500 price - similar to what Ben posted. I also saw plenty of 253,000 to and 264,500. I would call 139,500 one way business class to Europe a fair, market price these days. OMAAT values Flying Blue miles at 1.5 cents. TPG values them at 1.3 cents which I would argue is closer to the real value. 1.3 cents implies a cost of ~$2,000 for a one way ticket after fees, which seems like a fair market price for such a flight.
What does that tell me - those are the *actual* prices of a standard summer, East Coast to Europe business class redemption. Saver redemptions should be seen as a rare opportunity. And let’s compare that to other programs - 139,500 is the same or lower than what *actual* direct flights costs on American (I am seeing 200K+ this summer), United and obviously generally lower than Delta. 250/260K is obviously less appealing.
I was just thinking that it reminds me of Dl's 'dynamic award priceing'
Last year this time around I was able to find 50k business class from ATH-CDG-IAH on the new a350 cabin.. now that same route is around 170k+..its cheaper to pay for it lol. Oh well
Wow I'm glad I booked my flight from sea to ams for 50k each way. I booked this at the end of nov for next nov. But I guess the next flight won't be flying blue. Not much left anymore. This game may be over in a few years.
It’s not just AF/KLM. BA is more of the same. Living in California, I’ve seen some availability from Europe to the US, but it’s virtually non-existent TO Europe. Perhaps I need to take a positioning flight from Canada or Mexico…or Martinique or Sint Maarten…
Not surprised that IAD had the most seats available. The FB J award I was able to get for last October was QJX-CDG-IAD for 70k seven months in advance, which felt like a bargain.
As IAD is only an hour by air or four and a half by car to RDU, I always look there for westbound award flights across alliances. My upcoming westbound is LH KRK-FRA J, UA FRA-IAD J, UA IAD-RDU Y...
Not surprised that IAD had the most seats available. The FB J award I was able to get for last October was QJX-CDG-IAD for 70k seven months in advance, which felt like a bargain.
As IAD is only an hour by air or four and a half by car to RDU, I always look there for westbound award flights across alliances. My upcoming westbound is LH KRK-FRA J, UA FRA-IAD J, UA IAD-RDU Y using 56k AC + $313.
Airlines serve IAD for the government folks, and often the loads in PE and J are lower.
Being US-based, many of the business class routes to/from Europe that I see are now even worse than SkyMiles. 500K miles one-way isn't abnormal, and FlyingBlue charges much higher fuel surcharges than Delta. I agree that the value proposition of FlyingBlue is rapidly diminishing.
I was able to book CDG-LAX a few months back for about 100,000 miles + EUR350 in charges, and that's about as good as I've been able to find with FlyingBlue....
Being US-based, many of the business class routes to/from Europe that I see are now even worse than SkyMiles. 500K miles one-way isn't abnormal, and FlyingBlue charges much higher fuel surcharges than Delta. I agree that the value proposition of FlyingBlue is rapidly diminishing.
I was able to book CDG-LAX a few months back for about 100,000 miles + EUR350 in charges, and that's about as good as I've been able to find with FlyingBlue. Time to switch to another program.
It is a miserable situation. You can get FF tickets on Air France from Qantas and for the last month I've been trying to get 1 business seat from Paris to Florence for 3 November. Nothing available.
I've had good luck getting Business Class to PPT and BCN from LAX using miles (60k). Instead of booking anything to CDG or AMS I've seen award tickets to locations like BCN, LIS. They tend to fly via CDG but at least you get to Europe in Business Class.
I have used FB miles for great rates to Asia from SFO on China Airlines and Air France MEX-CDG this year. I assume partner awards are being devalued as well….
FB is no longer intresting at all. Availability of seats is low and prices have gone up 10 folds. Also generally services, seat, and food quality has all gone down hill, while ticket cost has gone sky rocket. Just makes you want to find alternatives.
Maybe it's hot or miss. I just snagged CDG MIA for 60k in J last night!
Ben, have you checked to see whether it varies by POS? Maybe better for Europeans?
And yet your very recent post about the same program talks about a 70000 point bonus. I am confused.
the truth is they're probably related. more miles floating around so more people booking. maybe there was a sweet spot for a period of a few years. i just looked at a date where they listed the eco at 60k and with the green icon, meaning they think it's a "saver" award. haha. saver eco at 60k.
someone in this chain got 60k in business. wild.
Even the Europe to Asia redemptions have been devalued significantly with spotty availability.
Looks like I was super lucky booking 2 single tickets GVA to BOS next month (booked 2 months in advance) for 120.000 miles
Yeah, I feel like there was a significant drop in availability this year over last year. Last year I was able to fly myself and 3 family in PE for a saver lever Virgin Atlantic award on KLM metal to Rome, then I was able to at least book my parents into PE on AF via Flying Blue at saver level while my brother and I went into econ and paid up to PE the...
Yeah, I feel like there was a significant drop in availability this year over last year. Last year I was able to fly myself and 3 family in PE for a saver lever Virgin Atlantic award on KLM metal to Rome, then I was able to at least book my parents into PE on AF via Flying Blue at saver level while my brother and I went into econ and paid up to PE the day before the flight.
Now for a trip to Norway this year, I managed to get the four of us in PE on KLM across to Bergen but for the next tier over saver (42k/person instead of 35k), but the flights home from Oslo are absolute nuts. Every day in the range we could come home is 270k or higher for just one person, let alone our party, and Expert Flyer shows 0-4 seats occupied on the given flights. There's cheaper business class fares than that. So instead we're all booked into economy and hoping for paid upgrades if no cheaper PE availability actually opens up.
From the Financial Times on 06 March, 2025
CEO Ben Smith quoting demand for Air France flights...
Air France-KLM targets ‘unbelievable’ spending of American travellers
Trump was confused when he said the EU was created to screw America (not sure if he was talking about the coal and steel community predecessor too).
Apparently he could/should have been talking about KLM/Air France.
It is fair to say that all loyalty programs (airlines and hotels) have evolved. Ben recently reflected on the diminished value of tier status. One could say that programs have become smarter (less generous) regarding tier status benefits. The programs have become smarter about how members earn and redeem award points. It's move, counter-move. As the programs have evolved and become smarter, so too must we hobbyists.
There is a pretty unified front from Lufthansa Group and Air France/KLM to stifle the U.S. for award travel. It's become quite clear through stripping away availability and devaluations.
You can see that it's targeted specifically to the U.S. as you can still find wonderful value between Europe and Asia or Africa without much problem. And it's often at lower redemptions. As well, this is less affected in Europe given much cheaper premium cabins ex...
There is a pretty unified front from Lufthansa Group and Air France/KLM to stifle the U.S. for award travel. It's become quite clear through stripping away availability and devaluations.
You can see that it's targeted specifically to the U.S. as you can still find wonderful value between Europe and Asia or Africa without much problem. And it's often at lower redemptions. As well, this is less affected in Europe given much cheaper premium cabins ex EU which makes just buying your seat often more reasonable. Oh, and let's not forget that Europeans are not obsessed with mileage cards like in the U.S.
I more or less agree about good value and availability between Europe and certain destinations in the Far East, they're very long distances after all. However, is 85k+€250 each way really 'wonderful value' for business class to Africa when Ethiopian and even Turkish Airlines are often selling return tickets for ca. €1500 ? There was even a recent sale on Rwandair around £1k all in. I suspect that Flying Blue's popularity in the USA has...
I more or less agree about good value and availability between Europe and certain destinations in the Far East, they're very long distances after all. However, is 85k+€250 each way really 'wonderful value' for business class to Africa when Ethiopian and even Turkish Airlines are often selling return tickets for ca. €1500 ? There was even a recent sale on Rwandair around £1k all in. I suspect that Flying Blue's popularity in the USA has emboldened those running the programme to make aggressive devaluations on non-US destinations. The funny thing is that the scapegoated DL miles are actually better value for many of those routes.
The reason why they target the USA is because Americans are more willing to pay more for everything. If you have ever booked a business class ticket to the USA originating in Europe it is always cheaper than if it originated in the USA. I often buy back to back tickets originating in Europe (sometimes on different airlines) and I pay the same for 2 than paying for 1 out of the USA. It’s not...
The reason why they target the USA is because Americans are more willing to pay more for everything. If you have ever booked a business class ticket to the USA originating in Europe it is always cheaper than if it originated in the USA. I often buy back to back tickets originating in Europe (sometimes on different airlines) and I pay the same for 2 than paying for 1 out of the USA. It’s not just airfares either. I can buy a months supply of the exact same statin in Europe for about 1/5 of what we pay in the USA.
Umm, that's what I said? lol
Thanks for this post. Flying Blue has long been my go-to TATL program but I've found it much less useful and was hoping it wasn't just my bad luck. I was hoping to use some FB points for a July Europe trip for 2 with flexibility on both ends, but there was nothing at all that remotely made sense, and despite issues with that program too, ended up booking an Aeroplan itinerary that is at...
Thanks for this post. Flying Blue has long been my go-to TATL program but I've found it much less useful and was hoping it wasn't just my bad luck. I was hoping to use some FB points for a July Europe trip for 2 with flexibility on both ends, but there was nothing at all that remotely made sense, and despite issues with that program too, ended up booking an Aeroplan itinerary that is at least workable and all priced at saver level if nothing better emerges. At this point, if nothing changes I'll probably end up depleting my FB balance on last minute intra-Europe flights that can be expensive in cash and use other programs to cross the pond.
I just scored a saver award from Amsterdam to San Diego.
I tend to have better luck with AMS than CDG when needing to fly to Western Europe. But as mentioned, when connecting through AMS/CDG to an outstation availability tends to be better, and even sometimes lower cost than the same flight direct to the hub.
This is the gold comment right here. Well said.
Imho connecting via AMS is simpler/faster than CDG anyway.
Quite a few Canada to Europe business seats
Sshhhh!
Seems to be just a US problem? I imagine the strategy is very different there since most members from the US get their points from credit cards, not from actually being loyal to AFKL/ST. The rest of the world availablity seems good to me.
I mean it's economics 1-0-1: the more currency you 'print', the more prices tend to increase. The US point system has been "printing" points and miles like crazy.
In this context, AF has played well: they created the most aspirational experience ahead of all the major players in the TATL market. And incentives for people to get status with them (LP redemptions) Now that everyone wants to fly their products and is sitting on...
I mean it's economics 1-0-1: the more currency you 'print', the more prices tend to increase. The US point system has been "printing" points and miles like crazy.
In this context, AF has played well: they created the most aspirational experience ahead of all the major players in the TATL market. And incentives for people to get status with them (LP redemptions) Now that everyone wants to fly their products and is sitting on a bunch of miles they think they can mop it up by increasing mile costs or fees. Probably they get a lot of cash market share thanks to the raving reviews and necessity to be top tier on FB to access LP so cash pricing is probably up as well.
An American company could have done the same. Except they didn't.
A German company could have done the same except they got tangled in their own webs (Allegris). I actually think the trend was identified first by LH, as they announced Allegris in 2017, AF just followed but is winning the cake thanks to flawless execution.
I'll leave the Americans comment on why the American companies thought what they had was enough to get market share.
On the subject of the "geography" of devaluations, it's simple: the loyalty program still has to work in other regions that haven't seen such a currency infusion. I'll give an example: the french AF Amex gold credit card earns 15 miles per 10 € spent (assume no miles for less than 10 eur increments) and 30 XP per year, no bonus in miles nor XP and is only free the first year then it's 208€ per year. To get 70k miles and 100 XP (like the US AF Amex card) you need to own the card for 3 years (416€ card fees) and spent 46k€ in 10€ increments. Compared to 3 months 89 $ + 3000$ spend for the US version. It's 12x as fast, twice as cheap and requires 12x less spend to get there in the US than in France.
And Amex is not widely accepted in Europe, you can't pay your taxes with credit cards etc. So it's not nearly as lucrative. The "value" of redemptions generally reflects the "effort" necessary to rack up the miles. In the US the effort is close to nil so it's fair that value is close to 0.
Still, there is still an outsized opportunity, for redemptions for Americans on flights not touching the USA. So it's not like Americans can't get value. It just takes more effort on the redemption side to compensate the low effort on collection side. Value, effort. See the trade off? For Europeans it's different value is just OK but they can't get miles (high effort in racking up miles). If I was an American I'd still consider myself on the winning side of things...
100% - all about married segments or not touching North America. I had no problem find saver space between NY and EVN and TBS for an upcoming trip. There were events several over peak summer dates. The old "secret" calendar trick still works too. I've always bashed AF for the high taxes/fees but they came out to about $250 each way.
Even*
Air France-KLM just reported their financial results for the 2024 year and they saw improvements in longhaul and premium demand. They expect trends to continue and improve in 2025 and following years.
It's simple supply and demand, just like lots of things.
Same reason why 40,000 skypesos can get you a 7 hour flight in J, such as CGK-HND, compared to a Y TATL flight if you're lucky.
As long as your flight doesn't touch Western countries the points will have a better value & availability.
Okedoke, but I don't have much occasion to fly Paris to Bangkok.
I think you need to remember that Air France is a FRENCH airline based out of PARIS.
While availability has shrunk TATL, it is also dynamic. You really need to start looking all the time starting 6 months out. Saver awards can appear and disappear the same day. There also seems more availability for plane plus train. In any event, there still seems to be more than you will find with *A airlines.
I think it is time for this site, and sites like it, to focus less on “saver” availability and more on actual average redemption costs. Saver availability is lower and lower every year, and is becoming less relevant. If I want to book two or four people from USA to Europe - what is the actual likely cost across all of the popular programs? 150K miles? 200k miles? Which program has the lowest redemption costs...
I think it is time for this site, and sites like it, to focus less on “saver” availability and more on actual average redemption costs. Saver availability is lower and lower every year, and is becoming less relevant. If I want to book two or four people from USA to Europe - what is the actual likely cost across all of the popular programs? 150K miles? 200k miles? Which program has the lowest redemption costs and the most availability? I would love to see some analysis on that instead of focus on saver redemptions, which are never available. I suspect Flying Blue would still do well on this metric compared to other programs.
Totally agree. All the blogs out there continue to do this. Probably more now than ever, including this one (though they’re far from the worse). So many examples but one I recently saw. Business class tickets to Japan for 50k miles! (Or whatever it was) they diminished the fact that the flights were totally last minute and, oh yeah, you’re flying to Japan in the dead of winter, when almost no one wants to go...
Totally agree. All the blogs out there continue to do this. Probably more now than ever, including this one (though they’re far from the worse). So many examples but one I recently saw. Business class tickets to Japan for 50k miles! (Or whatever it was) they diminished the fact that the flights were totally last minute and, oh yeah, you’re flying to Japan in the dead of winter, when almost no one wants to go there. Sorry but pushing these click bait points deals that are applicable or that can be redeemed by 1 percent of these types of travelers is insane.
Great idea. I second it.
Ben, please consider. I know as a travel blogger you're always seeking out and only settling for the sweet spots, but most travelers have far less flexibility and need to settle for less in order to put our points to use. An honest post that covered what people can reasonably get and where/how would be super useful.
I needed to fly home last June from Oslo to Boston - 15,000 miles O/W with 1 day notice! in JUNE! Love this program.
La Premiere award prices have gone up around 80-100% too
This is an even bigger scandal than the J saver elimination.
> no one expects that there’s going to be saver level business class award availability on a majority of flights
Well. ANA and JL do have saver level award seat on every flight.
SQ’s 5th freedom route between JFK and FRA gets featured on Spontaneous Escape almost every month and it’s 56.7k Krisflyer miles one way with minimal tax as Krisflyer doesn’t levy surcharge on their own metal. Why anyone would continue using Flying Blue for TATL is beyond me.
Not everyone lives on the east coast.
Or in New York City.
Take a positioning flight - duh. I do it practically every trip and shop all US entry points for the foreign carrier I want to book to get lowest possible award. Use your imagination and be flexible. Only way to maximize points for value.
Or the Upper East Side.
@Vince, no offense but that's the dumbest comment I've seen on this website in a very long time.
Also, fifth freedom flights are notorious for disappearing/changing. Take Houston-Manchester as a fairly recent example. They're certainly fun to take advantage of if convenient but that's about all one can say about them.
Not every trip can be planned just 1 month before.
Anything that dissuades point transfers is good for those who actually buy revenue tickets with the airline. Points inflation in the US market means that there needs to be some price discrimination between that market and everywhere else, and that's why you see all these 100-120k seats- Americans obviously are happy to pay that. The really disappointing thing, and the reason why I am not intending to chase FB miles, is that they've also devalued...
Anything that dissuades point transfers is good for those who actually buy revenue tickets with the airline. Points inflation in the US market means that there needs to be some price discrimination between that market and everywhere else, and that's why you see all these 100-120k seats- Americans obviously are happy to pay that. The really disappointing thing, and the reason why I am not intending to chase FB miles, is that they've also devalued other regions. You can find availability at the lowest pricing level going to Africa, but spending 85k miles on an one way medium haul flight is painful when you don't have access to huge sign-up credit card bonuses or offers which allow you to get 32 miles per dollar spent buying chewing gum on a Wednesday.
Have you compared premium cabin prices on JFK-CDG vs CDG-LOS? It makes complete sense to me why TATL pricing is so inflated right now.
I agree with Ben's take for the most part. However, last month I was pleased to be able to find two AF biz tix between Italy and LAX (round trip) at the saver level. I kept watching and even moved one of the flights up a week. Watching every day (sometimes checking multiple times per day), there were frequent changes in availability in/out of both LAX and SFO. Perhaps they have clamped down since the...
I agree with Ben's take for the most part. However, last month I was pleased to be able to find two AF biz tix between Italy and LAX (round trip) at the saver level. I kept watching and even moved one of the flights up a week. Watching every day (sometimes checking multiple times per day), there were frequent changes in availability in/out of both LAX and SFO. Perhaps they have clamped down since the end of Feb, but my experience is that availability is extremely dynamic, and sometimes it seems like the powers that be feel there is enough demand that they don't need to offer the saver level awards on their prime routes. FWIW, my LAX/CDG flight had about 10 empty seats in biz, which I had never seen before on my many flights on this route with AF.
FB availability out of LAX has been terrible, glad to hear you've had success!
@Ben - this might has to do with a recent ruling by the Dutch Advertisement Board, which comes out next week. The judge ruled FlyingBlue misleads travellers by advertising non existent or wrongly prices award seats.
Interesting. At the same time, you've got to think there might be some antitrust issues involved when FB, Lufthansa Group, and IAG all devalue at about the same time. Maybe DOJ will go after them since they're all foreign?
Pursuing my own complaint against KLM, I discovered that both KLM and Air France have F ratings with the Better Business Bureau.
Great post, thanks. The situation is truly terrible. Both me and my wife are long-time SAS Eurobonus Diamond members (lifetime Gold) and since SK made the switch from *A to Skyteam, it has gotten pretty much impossible to snag any TATL business class awards.
There's still plenty of award space on Virgin Atlantic to the US that you can book using EuroBonus. Business class availability only appears on the long haul sectors from London so it's practically impossible to book any itinerary originating in Scandinavia online. It is possible to call in and book the feeders, though the call center agents are a massive headache to deal with.
One point you are missing in your post is the recent introduction of Subscribe to Miles which enables members to buy every month up to 17 K miles for 187 euros.
This backfired on the ones who subscribed and thought it was a steal as it has gotten more expensive to book awards
Honestly, reading about Flying Blue’s award availability is just hilarious at this point. Sure, Delta’s SkyMiles can sometimes cost more, but at least you’re not wasting your time trying to snag a seat that doesn’t exist. Delta actually gets you to your destination – unlike Flying Blue, where booking a flight feels like you’re gambling with your trip. And let’s not forget, Delta’s the safer airline. You’re way more likely to land in one piece,...
Honestly, reading about Flying Blue’s award availability is just hilarious at this point. Sure, Delta’s SkyMiles can sometimes cost more, but at least you’re not wasting your time trying to snag a seat that doesn’t exist. Delta actually gets you to your destination – unlike Flying Blue, where booking a flight feels like you’re gambling with your trip. And let’s not forget, Delta’s the safer airline. You’re way more likely to land in one piece, unlike some programs where getting there is a toss-up. Plus, they’re eco-friendly, so flying with Delta is doing your part for the planet. Why bother with Flying Blue when Delta’s got safety, reliability, and the planet on lock?
Why does this sound like it came from DL's PR desk?
Delta state media at work :)
Sometimes you even get to land upside down safely.
Is the assertion that Delta is safer than Air France? Wikipedia lists accidents and incidents for both airlines. Clearly, Air France has had fewer incidents than Delta.
Using Skymiles can "sometimes cost more". Delta is "eco-friendly, so flying with Delta is doing your part for the planet" and Delta has "the planet on lock". Great jokes!
Ben, great coverage, thanks!
The head of Flying Blue has talked in the media from time to time about availability. Perhaps he might have something to say if you reached out to him.
Certainly caused me to cancel my AF credit card (and the co brand card attractiveness was one of his reasons when he made saver fares more available in the spring of last year.
Glad I was able to book my trip from Atlanta to Egypt on Air France with all of my Flying Blue Points before this devaluation and lack of available award space happened. Whew.
Just curious, Ben - why hasn't your valuation of Flying Blue points changed?
Do you think the relaxation of cancelation fees across the industry (especially in the US) plays at least a little bit of a part here? If there are no cancel fees, someone can hold as many award flights as they want until it’s time for them to make a decision. If I find a “good enough” routing I can book it, while still hunting for something better last minute. And then my “good enough” flight...
Do you think the relaxation of cancelation fees across the industry (especially in the US) plays at least a little bit of a part here? If there are no cancel fees, someone can hold as many award flights as they want until it’s time for them to make a decision. If I find a “good enough” routing I can book it, while still hunting for something better last minute. And then my “good enough” flight won’t be released for availability until potentially very close in, when I find a better routing.
I agree in general. Flying Blue still has cancelation fees though — 70 euros.
Cancellation fees on revenue tickets are even worse. I bought a sale ticket on DL through KLM and got totally screwed for the whole amount minus taxes when my partner cancelled. Had I been able to see the cancel fee up front, I wouldn't have done it, of course, but our reservation had to be split because I was still going, and only the agent saw what we were losing. He/she didn't bother to tell...
Cancellation fees on revenue tickets are even worse. I bought a sale ticket on DL through KLM and got totally screwed for the whole amount minus taxes when my partner cancelled. Had I been able to see the cancel fee up front, I wouldn't have done it, of course, but our reservation had to be split because I was still going, and only the agent saw what we were losing. He/she didn't bother to tell me when I asked if there were fees or to tell me that the flight was changeable. Grrr.
Of course, had I booked through DL I could have gotten a credit, but I was on the KLM website because I was looking for award tickets. There I saw this great cash fare, and the saga began...
Of course, I might not have been able to have gotten the same price had I booked on Delta; I'll never know.
Last week I saw a 11:30pm out of JFK open up and told my wife and I was so excited. I waited til after lunch to try to book it. I waited like 4 hours and it was gone.
So there are people constantly scraping for open slots and booking them. I bet they hold it bc the service they charge is greater than the cancelation fee of 75.
Maddening.
Why do you assume it’s scraping? Plenty of other people are looking all the time and don’t wait four hours to snag them.
Just a heads up Canada to Paris has plenty of seats (but none at 60k.) I used 174k miles for 2 business seats and that was the cheapest date available in late October, flying from Toronto. I live in the Midwest, and I have to do a positioning flight anyway, so Toronto is a good option. Montreal might work for the northeast people. Good luck!
Lipsey said in the financial times today that they basically see no price ceiling for US-Europe travel in the foreseeable future. Given that flying blue was basically only useful to me for transatlantic the program is useless to me right now.
“Ben Smith said Air France had seen “amazing” demand from [American] leisure travellers in its business and first-class seats, and the French airline has responded by shifting its business model to focus on the premium end of the market.”
This isn't surprising to me, but I still find Flying Blue very useful. There's often awards at lower levels, just not saver. For instance, paying 100k in miles from the west coast to Paris, which is more like 80k in transferable points because there are frequent transfer bonuses, is a good deal to me. Plus, there's family pooling, and the cancelation fees are not too bad.
"I hope this is temporary, and that award availability doesn’t stay this bad permanently."
Let's be honest, what program has ever gone from bad to good? Is Flying Blue going to magically pour availability back in?
Award inventory trends change all the time, sometimes for the better.
Please name one.
I don't have to think too hard to name one. Years ago AA released zero J award on its own metal TATL and TPAC (see View From the Wing 2017 article "American Airlines Award Space As Pathetic As It's Ever Been"). Earlier this year, I was seeing AA J awards to Tokyo on almost a daily basis, albeit close to departure.
I would say rarely, if ever, for the better. So rare, in fact, that I can't think of an example. Can you?
Remember that Qantas award dump 2 years back?
I agree with you that it's really rare, but that is an example.
Last point: As a FB Platinum member I find That the best availability is actually in La Premier, albeit outrageously expensive. And while J awards are dynamic l, LP is fixed. So many times I find J class for 400k one way and LP for 335K. It makes no sense whatsoever.
I noticed this a few weeks ago as well. When I used seats.aero to search, I was only able to find three tickets in business class for the ENTIRE year. Saver awards are dead. So keep giving us you’re 30 and 40% transfer bonuses, which mean absolutely nothing!
For years I’ve been able to get IAD-CDG in J for 70,000 miles each way (with preplanning and flexibility). Now, for the entire schedule, there are 2 dates at 60,000, a smattering of dates with availability at 116,500, and fair availability at what seems to be the new normal…167,000 miles. It is quite a devaluation.
Didn't they promise there would be more saver awards available when they increase the rates to 60 K from 50 K.
The sad thing is, There are still people who will justify the evaluation and the lack of availability of saver awards.
Just one data point out of the million out there. Last month my wife and I needed to find flights to Catania Sicily from San Francisco in August. Amazingly found Air France business class availability on both the departure and return dates we needed. It definitely didn’t price at the saver level, but each one was only about 100K miles. Considering the length of the flight, quality of Air France, and the general availability of...
Just one data point out of the million out there. Last month my wife and I needed to find flights to Catania Sicily from San Francisco in August. Amazingly found Air France business class availability on both the departure and return dates we needed. It definitely didn’t price at the saver level, but each one was only about 100K miles. Considering the length of the flight, quality of Air France, and the general availability of transatlantic business class awards on any airline, we were pretty darn excited. One other weird/interesting thing to note, there was significant volatility in the amount of miles needed on all the flights over the course of a week or so. Every day I was checking and it seems like the mileage needed was different every time I looked.
It sucks. I have a small award-booking service and for years Flying Blue was my bread and butter. Not anymore
Noting a typo Ben: Newark is EWR, not SEA.
I agree savers are hard to find, but I have found that there are reasonable non-saver seats available through FB. I got 4x business class seats for a family of four JFK-CDG RT for 640k total (granted two of those are children, so 25% off for them, but even so it’d have only been another 70k or so). So yes, it was not 4x120k for RT, but much better value than most programs, and pretty decent redemption per mile/MR point given ticket prices.
How much of the lack of award availability is because AFKLM decided to target the US credit card market?
@ frrp -- I suspect like many airlines and frequent flyer programs, that whole relationship is a bit challenging. The loyalty side wants the revenue from credit cards and transfered points, while revenue management doesn't want to give up seats for "cheap."
This can often create a bit of a "see-saw" relationship. Perhaps if revenue from the program is down then it's more likely that more seats are made available. I'm hoping this is...
@ frrp -- I suspect like many airlines and frequent flyer programs, that whole relationship is a bit challenging. The loyalty side wants the revenue from credit cards and transfered points, while revenue management doesn't want to give up seats for "cheap."
This can often create a bit of a "see-saw" relationship. Perhaps if revenue from the program is down then it's more likely that more seats are made available. I'm hoping this is just temporary, but currently it doesn't look good...
I’ve been wondering about this frequently lately - the lack of award availability, the inconsistent (at best) honoring of promised elite benefits at hotels, the constant devaluations - all have me planning to close my premium credit cards with Amex, Chase, and Citi - I simply haven’t been seeing the value in accumulating points or paying these fees. I’m very curious - how much, if any, influence do these credit cards companies have with their...
I’ve been wondering about this frequently lately - the lack of award availability, the inconsistent (at best) honoring of promised elite benefits at hotels, the constant devaluations - all have me planning to close my premium credit cards with Amex, Chase, and Citi - I simply haven’t been seeing the value in accumulating points or paying these fees. I’m very curious - how much, if any, influence do these credit cards companies have with their airline and hotel partners, with respect to ensuring that the partners are still offering value?
Yes, the "see-saw" relationship is very apparent in many FFP. Usually only top level decisions (e.g., at least 2 award seats per flight) can challenge it.
Also, these days intercontinental business class is usually full. I can't remember when I last was on a plane with empty seats upfront. Intra EU is a different story, but this is hardly business class, as we all know ...
I think this fullness is the key point.
Demand roared back after Covid, so prices went up, and at least TATL there are very few "will be wasted otherwise" seats.
In most cycles airlines then add capacity, but this time there is a shortage of aircraft due to aggressive downsizing during Covid and production problems (E.g. 777) since.
Availability will come back with a major recession, or resolution of production.
Meanwhile, narrowbody XLRs...
I think this fullness is the key point.
Demand roared back after Covid, so prices went up, and at least TATL there are very few "will be wasted otherwise" seats.
In most cycles airlines then add capacity, but this time there is a shortage of aircraft due to aggressive downsizing during Covid and production problems (E.g. 777) since.
Availability will come back with a major recession, or resolution of production.
Meanwhile, narrowbody XLRs will cut availability of ""otherwise wasted" when they replace larger planes rather than adding new routes, E.g. some Europe-Africa routes.