JetBlue Cuts Transatlantic Flying In Winter

Earlier I wrote about how JetBlue is introducing Mint on several new routes. However, I wanted to separately cover what’s probably a much bigger story — JetBlue is cutting its transatlantic flights for winter, as clearly the service is not succeeding in the way the airline hoped.

JetBlue cutting unprofitable transatlantic flights

In the summer of 2021, we saw JetBlue gradually launch transatlantic service, using newly delivered Airbus A321LRs. The JetBlue passenger experience is absolutely phenomenal, so from a comfort and value perspective, I’m delighted to see JetBlue’s growth across the Atlantic.

However, I’ve been skeptical about the economics of this service since launch:

• Transatlantic market share is heavily dominated by the “big three” joint ventures, and it can be hard for a newcomer to compete
• A321LRs are capable planes in terms of range, though with a fairly low capacity plus limited cargo capabilities, it can be tough to profitably fly these small planes into major airports
• The challenge with transatlantic flying is how seasonal demand is, especially with JetBlue overwhelmingly going after leisure travelers
• Some major European airports are slot controlled, so securing the right to fly to key airports is no small task; JetBlue has done a surprisingly good job forcing its way into these airports

Up until now, JetBlue has continued to grow across the Atlantic, and has clearly viewed the Atlantic as a growth market where losses were just going to happen for some amount of time.

However, JetBlue’s new CEO has made it clear that the company needs to take a close look at its transatlantic service, and once routes reach a maturity point, they should only be kept around if they’re profitable. We’re now seeing the results of that analysis, as JetBlue is making its first material cuts across the Atlantic, as flagged by @xJonNYC:

• JetBlue’s routes from Boston (BOS) and New York (JFK) to London Gatwick (LGW) will become seasonal, and will be suspended for winter
• JetBlue’s route from New York (JFK) to Paris (CDG) will be reduced from twice daily to once daily for winter

This means that during the winter season, JetBlue will operate:

• 2x daily New York (JFK) to London Heathrow (LHR) flights
• 1x daily Boston (BOS) to London Heathrow (LHR) flights
• 1x daily New York (JFK) to Amsterdam (AMS) flights
• 1x daily Boston (BOS) to Amsterdam (AMS) flights
• 1x daily New York (JFK) to Paris (CDG) flights
• 1x daily Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG) flights

Dropping three of the planned 10 daily transatlantic frequencies for winter is a pretty significant reduction. In summer, JetBlue will then restore the above frequencies, and will also operate service to Dublin (DUB) and Edinburgh (EDI).

Can JetBlue succeed with a seasonal Europe strategy?

I can’t say I’m surprised that Europe isn’t turning out to be a cash cow for JetBlue. Former JetBlue CEO Robin Hayes seemed to suggest this transatlantic service would be a turning point for JetBlue, though I’m not surprised it hasn’t worked out that way.

Seasonally it’s easy enough to make money across the Atlantic, while winter is a different story. This is something that a countless number of airlines have learned the hard way over the years.

The only way to make money across the Atlantic in winter is to control many lucrative corporate contracts, and to command very high fares in premium cabins. Furthermore it requires having a huge network of connecting traffic, so that people can continue to Africa, India, etc. That’s something that JetBlue has clearly been struggling with.

I think the logical question is whether JetBlue may plan more fundamental changes to its Europe strategy, or if this is the extent of the changes. Essentially, can JetBlue make the economics work of flying these premium A321s to Europe in summer, and then to other counter seasonal leisure destinations in winter?

On the surface, it doesn’t seem like a terrible strategy, especially with hubs in Boston and New York, where people are most definitely looking for warm weather in the winter. So it shouldn’t be too tough to shift Mint demand to places like the Caribbean, California, etc.

But still, JetBlue’s A321LRs are in a really premium configuration, with a low total seat count. I can’t help but wonder if JetBlue may end up reconfiguring its A321LRs with a bit less premium of a configuration, to better reflect the demand mix for markets where the plane could be used.

Obviously when the A321LR was ordered, the hope was that these planes would have all their business class seated filled year-round across the Atlantic, and that this service would consistently make sense. But if these planes are going to be flying six months per year to other destinations, is this still the right layout for the aircraft?

Bottom line

JetBlue plans to significantly reduce its transatlantic service as of this upcoming winter. The airline will be eliminating three of its planned 10 frequencies, cutting Boston and New York to London Gatwick altogether, as well as cutting one of the daily New York to Paris flights.

Up until now, JetBlue has been willing to sustain losses across the Atlantic, thinking the markets haven’t yet reached maturity. JetBlue’s new management team is much more focused on having the airline return to profitability ASAP, and that includes making some tough decisions with transatlantic service.

What do you make of JetBlue’s transatlantic route cuts?