Saudi Arabia is investing an unprecedented amount of money in tourism, and also in diversifying its economy away from oil. I’ve been watching this with great interest, as we’ve never seen a project to this scale before, and many have wondered just how realistic some of these ambitions are. I’m also just generally interested in planned projects like this, as it’s amazing how often they fail.
Saudi Arabia’s single most ambitious project is The Line, and it looks like this is now facing its biggest challenge to date. While we’ve seen the project scaled back and delayed in the past, we’re now seeing work reportedly stop for the coming years. Let’s start with a bit of background, and then get into the latest.
In this post:
Saudi Arabia’s The Line is the wildest thing I’ve ever seen
Saudi Arabia is working on developing all kinds of new regions, in order to create new tourism and lifestyle destinations. The biggest project in Saudi Arabia has been NEOM, which is intended to be a $1.5 trillion investment, and the most unreal-looking aspect of this is The Line.
According to the initial plans, The Line is intended to eventually house nine million people, who will live in interconnected societies run by artificial intelligence. This is supposed to be a 170 kilometer coastal strip that will be free of cars and streets, and will allegedly have zero carbon emissions.
The design of this is unlike anything we’ve seen before. Essentially, the idea was that there would be two skyscrapers that are parallel to one another, each the height of the Empire State Building and the length of the state of Delaware. People would somehow live inside that society. If I didn’t know any better, I’d say there’s no way that this is realistic, and that this must be out of a video game, or something.
This is only one aspect of the NEOM development, with other aspects of the project including everything from marina resorts to ski resorts. Again, all of this stuff just looks so futuristic.
In many ways, I think what happens with NEOM will very much reflect whether Saudi Arabia’s unprecedented investment works out or not. This seems totally outlandish, so if Saudi Arabia can pull this off, maybe the country’s goals aren’t outside the realm of possibility.
However, if the country can’t pull this off after emphasizing so much how it’s the “flagship” project, then that’s quite embarrassing. So along those lines, there’s now a major update about The Line, and it’s not good for Suadi Arabia…
NEOM halts work on The Line project until after 2030
In May 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported how ambitions for The Line were significantly scaled back, as the work was happening over budget, with several construction issues. According to that update roughly two years ago:
- The Line was only expected to be 2.4 kilometers long by 2030, so that would’ve been just 1.4% of the planned length
- The initial plan was for The Line to have at least 1.5 million residents by 2030, while the updated goal was for that number to be closer to 200,000, so that would’ve been just 13% of the original goal
At the time, Saudi Arabia insisted that the long term plans for The Line remained unchanged, even if it would be done a bit more slowly than initially planned. Keep in mind that a $1.5 trillion project is an absurd amount of money, even by Saudi Arabian standards. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) is worth just under a trillion dollars, to just put that into perspective. So this project would cost more than 50% over the total value of the country’s PIF.
That projected cost was also best case scenario, and the project was running way over budget, with many suggesting it would end up costing over $2 trillion. Unfortunately all of that is nothing compared to the latest update.
Semafor now reports that construction on The Line has been suspended completely, and won’t resume until after 2030 (thanks to View from the Wing for flagging this). As a reminder, that’s the year when the project was supposed to be done, and Saudi Arabia has also been all about its “Vision 2030” concept. This change comes as the PIF is instead prioritizing investing in infrastructure, like ports and data centers.
It’s not just The Line facing a huge delay now, but also other tourism destinations along the Red Sea coast that are part of NEOM, like Trojena, which was supposed to host the 2029 Asian Winter Games. That’s now also not expected to see any work until beyond 2030.
If/when work does resume, it’s also expected to feature a simpler design, with the twin mirrored skyscrapers being significantly redesigned, in an effort to make the project less costly to develop. Again, it remains to be seen when this will actually be redesigned, and when new funding will be allocated to it.
Everyone can decide for themselves what the odds are of this ever becoming a reality. Even if this does eventually happen, with the significantly scaled back plans in terms of the number of residents, it makes the economics and sustainability of the project even more questionable. That’s because endless money is being poured into the region, from solar panels, to desalination plants, to a massive airport, to other infrastructure.
It’s one thing if you could essentially distribute those investments across 1.5 million residents, but with only a tiny fraction of the number of residents, it makes the economics much harder to rationalize.
Every time I write about anything related to Saudi Arabia, people ask why I’m “promoting” the country. Let me emphasize that I’m not — being interested in something is not the same as endorsing something, or thinking it’s a great idea.
As I said, we’ve never seen a tourism investment to this scale before, and we’re seeing everything from the launch of Riyadh Air, to endless new hotel projects.
Bottom line
I can’t help but be fascinated by The Line, Saudi Arabia’s futuristic development that looks unlike anything the world has ever seen. I’ve been skeptical yet intrigued, so have been keeping an eye on the progress of the project.
A couple of years ago, we learned how The Line was dealing with some major delays and budget issues, which caused the ambitions to be slowed down and scaled back. Those cutbacks have now been taken to the next level, as construction has reportedly been halted, and won’t resume until beyond 2030 at the earliest.
Now it just remains to be seen if this project is permanently abandoned, or if it eventually comes to fruition in some form.
What do you make of The Line? Do you think anyone will ever live there?
If this project works, then Trump did it. If it fails, then Trump will say it was a terrible idea. His family company is involved in this project.
LIV golf came and has now died off, another Trump supported. Athletics allowing PED's, another Trump idea, was supposed to be in Saudi, but moved to Vegas because of the war.
We will see, won't we.
Very Impressed with the endeavore.US should invest in passenger Rail Travel across the US to start with instead of Blowing Trillions of Dollars every year on wars which only Help a few Giant Corporations and of course ISRAEL.
Not supporting Israel is already considered antisemitism.
According to a colleague from the region, they have partly been paying for this by defunding their public education and healthcare systems, leading to an exodus of highly educated people like doctors/professors/etc. from KSA. It wouldn't surprise me if internal discontent played a role in this. It's hard to maintain an absolute monarchy when the soldiers who enforce it can't get decent education or healthcare for their families.
The bigger issue is changing people's mindset about the country. Opening the country with reducing the extent of Islamic law is a start but it will take years to change people's mindset about the country.
When we left our first stint in the UAE in 1994 the tallest building in Dubai was the Trade Centre at 10 floors with a Hilton at the top and 4 lanes roads. When we returned in 1999 Dubai was a massive construction site with massive high rises spring up one or two floors as day and 6 to 12 lane freeways
We left the year the Burj Khalifa opened.
In 13 years...
When we left our first stint in the UAE in 1994 the tallest building in Dubai was the Trade Centre at 10 floors with a Hilton at the top and 4 lanes roads. When we returned in 1999 Dubai was a massive construction site with massive high rises spring up one or two floors as day and 6 to 12 lane freeways
We left the year the Burj Khalifa opened.
In 13 years a sleepy fishing village bloomed into a megalopolis.
Granted the Line is much more ambitious so is Saudi Arabia's wealth. Don't sell it short even though today it appears to be in trouble.
It may happen but it depends on whether Saudi's themselves are willing to build such a "Western City" within their borders and whether people will be willing to live there. I think the recent conflict is a major factor.
What happened to all those snowflake hypocrites?
Show some political correctness.
This project should receive a participation trophy and a winners medal.
We should celebrate unique identities of this project.
This project is the product of dream big, aim for the stars, you can grow up and be anything you want to be.
What about the safe space to come out and be yourself and protect you from detractors or discrimination.
Draws...
What happened to all those snowflake hypocrites?
Show some political correctness.
This project should receive a participation trophy and a winners medal.
We should celebrate unique identities of this project.
This project is the product of dream big, aim for the stars, you can grow up and be anything you want to be.
What about the safe space to come out and be yourself and protect you from detractors or discrimination.
Draws a strage parallel right snowflakes?
"We choose to build the Line in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard."
Whilst the Line is NIMBY. You should realize by now the whole generation is f***ed and will end up like the Line.
Y'all hypocrites.
You couldn’t pay me to set foot in that corrupt, hateful dictatorship
The Line was always an incredibly impractical and stupid idea. I can't even believe that it got as far as it did. Who would want to live in such a place? And for this dystopia to have any success, you'd need to start wiith over a million people who are deluded enough to think that living in a 1000' tall building in the desert that's miles away from the other end of the 1000' tall...
The Line was always an incredibly impractical and stupid idea. I can't even believe that it got as far as it did. Who would want to live in such a place? And for this dystopia to have any success, you'd need to start wiith over a million people who are deluded enough to think that living in a 1000' tall building in the desert that's miles away from the other end of the 1000' tall building and which basically has no exit. And one train line. And you get one store near you. It deserves to fail spectacularly.
Not all Saudi projects are bad. Many of the resort proposals actually look pretty compelling. And there is more natural beauty to see in KSA than most people would think. But the NEOM project, especially The Line, is a idiotic waste of money. Why not just light bags of currency on fire? It would not be as bad for the environment as this mess is.
You hit on something big there - why? Why would someone want to live in the middle of the desert in a place where Crown Prince Muhammed bin Bonesaw may jail you or cut you up on a whim?
TBH I even think the same about those Aman houses at Amangiri. Why? Why would I want to live in the middle of Mormon Deliverance country?
Yes, Amangiri is right on the edge of Colorado City which is a bigtime polig village. But, given where it's situated in the sandstone, I doubt most of their guests will ever encounter one of the Jeffs family.
I for one am proud of the consultants that managed to keep this going as long as it did. Saudi royalty didn't need that money and I'm sure the consultants will put it to better use than MBS.
I suggest you avoid going into government establishments such as embassies in the near future.
to the surprise of no one, it didnt get completed. when will 'the world' be finished?
all this lot want is attention and to pretend theyre anything other than theocracies that lucked out with resources.
There are so many people hungry, in war, and there is SO much money being wasted on dystopian projects that nobody wants. The line would have been hell to live in. For most on the bottom 90% of the structure, there would be no natural light. No parks. No outdoor spaces. It would be a prison. And it would cost hundreds of billions. And for what? And seriously, an outdoor ski resort in the desert??...
There are so many people hungry, in war, and there is SO much money being wasted on dystopian projects that nobody wants. The line would have been hell to live in. For most on the bottom 90% of the structure, there would be no natural light. No parks. No outdoor spaces. It would be a prison. And it would cost hundreds of billions. And for what? And seriously, an outdoor ski resort in the desert?? WHY???????? It’s SUCH A WASTE OF TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS. I’m losing my mind. The human race has gone off the edge, really.
@Bruce
Vanity
There's something very ironic about a country, whose very existence depends on oil and gas, trying to create a city completely free of oil and gas consumption.
That's not ironic.
That just shows that in the grand scheme of things they have understood that fossil energy is coming to an end and that they need to think about from where the money will be flowing in in the not so distant future. They were great in dreaming big - until reality hit; a year ago, or so.
Many of their big projects have been scaled down massively - which is...
That's not ironic.
That just shows that in the grand scheme of things they have understood that fossil energy is coming to an end and that they need to think about from where the money will be flowing in in the not so distant future. They were great in dreaming big - until reality hit; a year ago, or so.
Many of their big projects have been scaled down massively - which is ok. Unfortunately they shifted their approach from a long term perspective in changing the economy away from fossil energy to tourism and a lot of other things to a very short term perspective on making those things which they have started and which were already generating revenue profitable next quarter. Which obviously is unrealistic target setting - very much like how the big projects started.
KSA attempting to be a hub is laughable in the first place, even with their new airline. KSA is way too Muslim. Dubai gets a pass because they turn a blind eye to many many things - even with Islam. The general hike about Dubai in the Moshe East is that “Allah can’t see you in Dubai - so many haram things are implicitly okay. That’s not true of KSA. Dubai already has the corner...
KSA attempting to be a hub is laughable in the first place, even with their new airline. KSA is way too Muslim. Dubai gets a pass because they turn a blind eye to many many things - even with Islam. The general hike about Dubai in the Moshe East is that “Allah can’t see you in Dubai - so many haram things are implicitly okay. That’s not true of KSA. Dubai already has the corner on the market for ME tourism. KSA has few differentiators AND harsher laws. It’s not going to be a tourist Mecca. It would need to really loosen its Muslim ideology to even be remotely competitive.
The targets of the project were always fiction packed in nice branding videos. But for anyone paying just the slightest attention to what they were promising it was obvious that we were far into to science fiction territory. The only thing surprising about the shut down is that it did not come sooner.
Riyadh Air is obviously cheaper than The Line generally speaking but it does make you wonder if the Kingdom will scale back the desire to build a big hub and subsidize Delta flights to RUH. Long term it's not difficult to see how Riyadh Air could become profitable but over the next 5-10 years, it's just going to be a big government vanity project all with an inflight product many won't be too interested in...
Riyadh Air is obviously cheaper than The Line generally speaking but it does make you wonder if the Kingdom will scale back the desire to build a big hub and subsidize Delta flights to RUH. Long term it's not difficult to see how Riyadh Air could become profitable but over the next 5-10 years, it's just going to be a big government vanity project all with an inflight product many won't be too interested in unless you're someone that starts meetings with "Hi, my name is Tim Dunn and I'm an alcoholic"
Nah you won't see Tim at AA meetings. It's unprofitable and worst of the 3.
You see him at the premium DAL meetings.
Delta
Alcoholic
Lunatics
I will fly there on a Boom supersonic plane.
How does a contiguous very long building (kilometers) have a stable foundation?
I don't think it's a continuous building; it's a bunch of individual buildings with a shared wall or facade (which appears to be made of solar panels).
if i were a US airline which is currently left behind when it comes to gulf partners and which had just staked its future in the region on continued Saudi largess, i might be starting to break a sweat right now
If there was a polymarket on the success of the “line”….
All the fancy mirrored pools and palm trees wouldn't make me want to visit that corrupt and murderous regime, where the only thing to do is sit around shopping malls and hotels being waited on by human trafficked people.
Fortunately you're not in Tel Aviv.
Oh wow, I just agreed with you for the first time ever.
To the surprise of absolutely nobody...
Anyone with half a brain knew this wasn’t going to happen. The only ones who kept pushing it forward were the out of touch monarchy, and the people who were making money by feeding into their delusions.
but hey, they were able to move a bunch of ppl off the land that they wanted to clear