After quite some back-and-forth with the United States Department of Transportation (DOT), Delta Air Lines is giving up a Tokyo Haneda slot…
In this post:
The backstory of Delta’s Portland to Tokyo Haneda route
Tokyo has two major airports — Narita Airport (NRT) and Haneda Airport (HND). Haneda is much more convenient for those visiting Tokyo, but historically most long haul flights have operated to Narita. However, Haneda has increasingly been opening up slots for long haul flights, which airlines have been very excited about.
Back in 2019, the DOT was in a position to award US airlines a dozen additional slots for Haneda (Japanese airlines were offered a similar number of slots). The DOT is supposed to award these based on what’s in the best interest of the public, so airlines try to make the case for why a particular route is in the public’s best interest.
Those 12 slots ended up being split between four airlines (American, Delta, Hawaiian, and United). Delta got lucky, and ended up being awarded five slots, to fly to Haneda from Atlanta (ATL), Detroit (DTW), Honolulu (HNL), Portland (PDX), and Seattle (SEA), complementing the carrier’s previous service to Haneda from Los Angeles (LAX) and Minneapolis (MSP).
These Haneda slots operate with a “use it or lose it” clause, so airlines actually have to serve these routes, or else the slots can be taken away. However, these routes were supposed to launch in March 2020, and as you might have guessed, that wasn’t a great time for transpacific travel. As a result, the DOT granted a dormancy waiver, allowing airlines to postpone any Haneda routes, without losing the slots.
That waiver is finally coming to an end as of October 2023. Delta still hasn’t launched its Portland to Tokyo Haneda route, so the airline is making an interesting decision…
Delta won’t fly from Portland to Tokyo Haneda
For the past several months, Delta has been urging the DOT to give the airline flexibility to operate this Haneda slot out of a different airport. Delta just doesn’t want to fly from Portland to Tokyo Haneda, and has argued that market conditions have changed since the slot was allocated for Portland, and the route is no longer viable.
The DOT has argued that if Delta doesn’t want to operate the route for which the slot was granted, it can be returned to the DOT, and the DOT will start a process of awarding the slot once again. As the DOT argued:
“The department believes, consistent with our past practice, that should any of the carriers selected for Haneda service wish to change their U.S. gateway, the public interest would be best served by our consideration of such a request on the basis of a fresh and complete evidentiary record, and in light of the circumstances presented at that time.”
“Such record would offer the opportunity not only for arguments and evidence that the requesting carrier might present in support of its proposed shift, but also potential arguments and evidence of other interested carriers and communities in favor of alternative outcomes that they believe would best maximize public benefits.”
After a lot of debate, the DOT has given Delta a firm “no” when it comes to switching the gateway for its Portland to Haneda route. As a result, Delta has informed the DOT that the airline no longer plans to move forward with its Portland to Tokyo Haneda service.
It will now be up to the DOT to award this to another airline. United has expressed interest in operating to Tokyo Haneda from either Guam (GUM) or Houston (IAH), so that seems like the leading possibility at this point.
Now, a few thoughts:
- I love how greedy and self-serving airlines sometimes are; Delta was granted 41% of the available Haneda slots for all US airlines based on the specific city pairs in which it promised to operate these services, but then it wants the flexibility to use this slot for something else, without giving other airlines a chance to make their case
- It’s surprising that Delta can’t make a Portland to Tokyo route work; the airline operated a Portland to Tokyo Narita flight back in the day, and on top of that, transpacific capacity is so limited at the moment, with some of the highest fares we’ve ever seen
- This clearly reflects Delta’s weakness in Asia outside of its joint venture with Korean Air, as Delta is focused on routing everything through Seoul Incheon (ICN); Delta also has the disadvantage of not having a major partner in Japan, while American has Japan Airlines and United has All Nippon Airways
Bottom line
Delta is giving up on its Portland to Tokyo Haneda route, which it received permission to operate back in 2019. The airline argued that market conditions had changed, and wanted the DOT to give the airline flexibility to operate this service out of another airport.
The DOT (correctly) denied this request, and will instead award this slot to the airline that can make the most compelling case. It’s pretty wild that Delta is just willing to hand a valuable Haneda slot back to the DOT, especially in this environment…
What do you make of Delta not being able to make Portland to Haneda work?
PS: Grabbing my popcorn to see how a certain someone is going to spin this…
I was just notified of the cancellation of our flight through Portland. Very unhappy. The only option they say now is to actually fly from the west coast going in the opposite direction through ATL to get to Haneda to catch my connecting flight out of Tokyo. Delta’s royally screwed us this time.
Why doesn't United fly it out of Portland?
If Delta don’t want to play by the rules suck it up and take your high fares somewhere else.
The current conditions in Portland have rendered that city unfit for consideration as an origin for this service. It is so unsafe there that the police are unable to keep up with the massive number of rampant crimes.
Its not a Hub like nearby Sea-Tac so no feed
This is the source document. DOT-OST-2020-0035-0035
Delta CSRs are not aware of the changes - Yet-
I have a reservation for that flight.
- It will be good publicity to see how Delta handles existing reservations.
https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2020-0035-0035
route them over SEA...
See my earlier separate comment. How they handled our existing reservation is to book us on an additional flight from sea -> [NEW!!! portland -> sea NEW!!] -> Haneda. Thereby making it impossible to connect from Haneda to a flight out to Singapore. Someone should raise a ruckus. For one, they added an additional leg to our itinerary to cancel out the flight from sea -> Portland.
WHEN is this effective?
e.g. - If we have an existing reservation for Nov, will that flight take place?
I bet Ben needed a refill of his popcorn for this one...
Situations change all the time. For example, United announced they will not re-start their flights from Honolulu to Tokyo. Granted that flight is to NRT, not HND, but it is an example of shifting demand.
Bingo. Delta started HND HNL but UA dropped NRT. Tells you about the future of Narita
Or it tells you about the power of joint ventures and how NH is running A380s to HNL. Also how UA still wants to increase service to Tokyo by picking up DL’s dropped slot, but from one its mainland hubs.
If using a joint venture partner was all united needed to survey market, they wouldn’t either to fly from Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and more to Tokyo. The simple fact is United can’t fly from Honolulu to Haneda, so it dropped the route to Narita.
The chances of the united picking up the frequency that Delta is vacating is very, very low
A beach market to Japan is less important than the main long haul flying UA does from its hubs. DL has no choice but to do this relatively low-yield flying against much stronger competition (you yourself have said DL is a domestic carrier that can’t compete with international airlines), as there’s no way they’d want to give up two slots with very little chance of getting both of them back.
no, I did not say that.
Not one iota.
And the entire GUM hub serves what major corporate accounts?
The hypocrisy is beyond belief.
UA GUM service has a "large account" know as the US Federal Government (DOD and intelligence agencies). The fares are crazy high to get to all the military installations with the Fly America rules. Delta walked away from GUM and ROR/Micronesia years ago now as they wound down the old NW routes and Japan service. Couldn't compete.
This was shameless slot squatting. Hope it goes to a route that will actually have passengers on it (with fares sold at market price).
Like what UA is doing to South Africa?
Delta’s management is pretty smart. They are the #1 airline in the U.S. I’ll go with Delta. Aloha, Mike
Why does no one remember in the legacy days for both DL and UA, aircraft of that era couldn’t reach the Asia routes without NRT as a hub? It’s different now with the current generation of aircraft…so the whole model/strategy is different.
Heck, even in the 90’s some routes required a fuel stop in Anchorage.
So don’t compare modern routes to heritage routes.
that is correct.
And UA did see further down the road in building US to Asia routes nonstop, some of which Pan Am started to do. but that was possible largely from the west coast where UA has historically been strong. NW was strong in the Midwest but not the west coast. They had to hold onto a NRT hub longer and it was only w/ the DL-NW merger that DL was able to...
that is correct.
And UA did see further down the road in building US to Asia routes nonstop, some of which Pan Am started to do. but that was possible largely from the west coast where UA has historically been strong. NW was strong in the Midwest but not the west coast. They had to hold onto a NRT hub longer and it was only w/ the DL-NW merger that DL was able to start reworking the way it serves Asia.
DL tried to move its NRT hub to HND as it became clear that more and more of Tokyo-US services would move to HND and those flights command higher fares than NRT.
Absent being able to hub at Tokyo, Delta turned to Korean and will build a much stronger partnership with KE at ICN than any carrier can build in Tokyo even as Delta will continue to have a preferential position at HND because AA/JL and UA/NH have joint ventures that make them larger.
AA, DL and UA are all the same size to China and that will continue; China was a big part of UA's size advantage to Asia.
UA has a number of additional routes outside of NE Asia and China and DL, in time, will develop those markets as well.
DL has proven over and over that it takes decades to successfully accomplish what other carriers try to do in years - and DL ends up on top. One needs only see what DL has done in both NYC and LAX for evidence of DL's patience and persistence in pursuing its strategies.
PDX-HND simply does not fit in DL's strategy for Asia
It’s nonsense that Portland still has any airline service at all, forget about service to Japan.
what?
Since 2019, the price of fuel, labor/pilot salaries, and the cost of aircraft have all increased dramatically. Makes sense for DL to reevaluate flying to HND out of a non hub.
DL's attorney's are going to press their companies interest to keep the slot and the FAA will want to keep its right to assign new slots to HND. Not much to the story.
Completely agree on the jv with Korean. It’s very dysfunctional and not well thought through. Korean on its own is a good airline and I like their soft product, but gosh if you book through Delta.. you are screwed! Never again!
Delta made a major mistake when they dismantled their NRT hub! I miss that 767 down to Singapore!
As delta becomes more of a travel agency (or a CC company), they become...
Completely agree on the jv with Korean. It’s very dysfunctional and not well thought through. Korean on its own is a good airline and I like their soft product, but gosh if you book through Delta.. you are screwed! Never again!
Delta made a major mistake when they dismantled their NRT hub! I miss that 767 down to Singapore!
As delta becomes more of a travel agency (or a CC company), they become less and less interested in international routes, presence, good service, well and travelers.
There was no way for Delta - or United - to maintain their NRT hubs profitably. That possibility ended when Japan began opening up HND for long-haul flights again. It's so much closer to Tokyo that flights to NRT just wouldn't be able to compete for the traffic actually going to Tokyo. It was nice while it lasted, but the UA and DL hubs were already on the decline and HND opening the door to long-haul again was the final nail in the coffin.
Delta made a major mistake when they dismantled their NRT hub!
Why do people make statements like this?
It lost money y-o-y even during even goods times, to the point where it couldn't be justified anymore as a fiduciary matter. How is cutting it a "major mistake?"
DoT is making the correct call here, but their decision in 2019 also wasn't unreasonable for the time.
The point you mention regarding AA and UA having JAL and ANA respectively is actually exactly why it made sense for Delta to get a disproportionate share of the HND slots. Basically, the change allowed them to shift all of their existing Tokyo services (of which PDX was one) from their ex-hub at Narita to Haneda, which...
DoT is making the correct call here, but their decision in 2019 also wasn't unreasonable for the time.
The point you mention regarding AA and UA having JAL and ANA respectively is actually exactly why it made sense for Delta to get a disproportionate share of the HND slots. Basically, the change allowed them to shift all of their existing Tokyo services (of which PDX was one) from their ex-hub at Narita to Haneda, which was necessary in order to remain competitive after the HND long-haul slots began opening up. This served the public interest by giving more competition, essentially 3 options vs. 2 that would have otherwise happened ANA and UA and AA and JAL have JVs for trans-Pac flights, so that's really just 2 options that are actually competing without Delta being in the mix.
Allowing Delta to keep the Portland route - a route which otherwise would not have been served by any carrier - made sense at the time, especially with Portland being a growing and generally successful city back then and Delta still connecting some trans-Pac traffic. Now, however, the Portland metro statistical area is seeing only very slight growth and Portland itself has actually been losing population. And, post-pandemic, Delta is no longer feeding traffic to Portland. Even in 2019, PDX had only negligible growth in traffic year-over-year. As of 2022, it was still far below 2019 levels. Especially with the shortages of aircraft and crews and no one knowing when trans-Pac traffic would come back, it made no sense for Delta to continue those flights into PDX, so it has now converted purely into a station whose only flights are to Delta hubs and their partner hub at AMS. With the change in Portland itself as well as the change in Delta's presence there, it's understandable why the Portland-Tokyo route is no longer viable, especially at a time when they need those planes and pilots on so many other much more profitable routes. Even more so with the SEA hub only a short hop away.
I think Delta had a very strong argument to get all of the routes they requested - and received - in 2019. However, DoT is correct to require that an open competition - which could include bids from other gateways by Delta - rather than just letting Delta shift the route to whatever gateway it wants. Of course, Delta would have been crazy to not request that, but DoT would have been crazy to approve it.
It would be great to see DOT grant the new HND route to a city that doesn't yet have Tokyo non-stop service, but that has the growing traffic to support such a route. BNA and AUS come to mind. BNA in particular has had Tokyo near the top of its list of desired routes for quite some time, as there are a lot of close business connections between Tokyo and Middle TN. Nissan's North American HQ is just outside Nashville, for example. And, unlike PDX, BNA and AUS are both already far above their 2019 traffic levels (as well as above PDX's 2019 levels.)
As far as which airline got the 2019 routes, it's also worth pointing out that ANA and JAL were not having to compete for the same slots that Delta was competing for. They had their own group of slots that they could operate on their JVs with UA/AA regardless of how DoT allocated slots to the U.S. carriers. That gives UA and AA a huge competitive advantage, so it makes sense to not grant them...
As far as which airline got the 2019 routes, it's also worth pointing out that ANA and JAL were not having to compete for the same slots that Delta was competing for. They had their own group of slots that they could operate on their JVs with UA/AA regardless of how DoT allocated slots to the U.S. carriers. That gives UA and AA a huge competitive advantage, so it makes sense to not grant them as large of a share of the routes allocated to U.S. airlines in order for Delta and Hawaiian to be able to provide meaningful competition, which is good for the public interest.
It also has to be said that PDX, since 2008, had been waiving landing fees for DL on their NRT route until it was pulled for pandemic reasons in 2020. During and after the 2008 financial crisis, DL had been building a case that the route was not profitable and no longer viable and rather than see it lost, the airport made concessions on fees. After the pandemic, many airlines were making arguments for similar...
It also has to be said that PDX, since 2008, had been waiving landing fees for DL on their NRT route until it was pulled for pandemic reasons in 2020. During and after the 2008 financial crisis, DL had been building a case that the route was not profitable and no longer viable and rather than see it lost, the airport made concessions on fees. After the pandemic, many airlines were making arguments for similar deals and the airport put an end to it. DL with a shortage on pilots, aircraft, and paying full airport fees just can't make the route work.
Japan used to be one of Nikes largest markets, internally called a geography however over the years it lost a lot of status within nike following the opening of APHQ in Shanghai which caused a significant drop in premium corporate travel to Japan. at the same time DL routed more and more traffic over Seattle Hub and AC pushed heavily into the market over YVR pulling more corporate premium travel.
im honestly surprised we havent...
Japan used to be one of Nikes largest markets, internally called a geography however over the years it lost a lot of status within nike following the opening of APHQ in Shanghai which caused a significant drop in premium corporate travel to Japan. at the same time DL routed more and more traffic over Seattle Hub and AC pushed heavily into the market over YVR pulling more corporate premium travel.
im honestly surprised we havent seen a KE or ICN or MU to PVG given there lower labour costs
Correct decision by the DOT.
the DOT is holding onto its right to allocate rights, not making any decision about any specific market or carrier.
AA, DL and HA all asked the DOT to allocate gateway flexibility - to move HND flights from one hub to another.
And what is consistently lost in this discussion is that HA was not operating a higher percentage of its HND flights than DL and HA will likely forfeit one of its flights.
...the DOT is holding onto its right to allocate rights, not making any decision about any specific market or carrier.
AA, DL and HA all asked the DOT to allocate gateway flexibility - to move HND flights from one hub to another.
And what is consistently lost in this discussion is that HA was not operating a higher percentage of its HND flights than DL and HA will likely forfeit one of its flights.
Further, it is certain that UA, which is the only one of the 4 US carriers that serve HND will not gain any more flights or at least will not gain the frequency that DL is giving up. If UA gets anything, it will be HA's frequency, not DL's.
When Delta initially flew PDX-NRT they had feed on the NRT side which allowed then to connect passengers over NRT to several destinations around Asia, the HND flight relies solely on Tokyo bound traffic which DL believes is no longer sufficient to support the flight. Yes, Delta received the bulk of the HND slots when awarded but that was mainly because AA has a joint venture with JAL and UA with ANA. UA actually already...
When Delta initially flew PDX-NRT they had feed on the NRT side which allowed then to connect passengers over NRT to several destinations around Asia, the HND flight relies solely on Tokyo bound traffic which DL believes is no longer sufficient to support the flight. Yes, Delta received the bulk of the HND slots when awarded but that was mainly because AA has a joint venture with JAL and UA with ANA. UA actually already serves IAH-HND through their joint venture partner ANA. If you apply the DOT’s previous reasoning, IAH definitely isn’t a sure thing. It will be interesting to see what AA and DL apply for.
PPX-TYO is a legacy Northwest route, which Delta inherited at the merger. Northwest was a partner with Alaska and so was Delta, until it decided to build a hub in Seattle. Alaska no doubt provided a lot of PDX connections that helped that flight. Without any meaningful connections beyond PDX (a metro area about as populous as St. Louis or Cleveland), and with no DL partner or connectivity at HND, this is no surprise at...
PPX-TYO is a legacy Northwest route, which Delta inherited at the merger. Northwest was a partner with Alaska and so was Delta, until it decided to build a hub in Seattle. Alaska no doubt provided a lot of PDX connections that helped that flight. Without any meaningful connections beyond PDX (a metro area about as populous as St. Louis or Cleveland), and with no DL partner or connectivity at HND, this is no surprise at all.
I wonder if JAL will start a PDX flight from Narita. They already do one to San Diego, a similarly sized metro area, and they're in Oneworld with Alaska, which could provide connectivity. It would be the only nonstop to Asia from Portland as well.
Delta operated a gateway at PDX to Asia for years, long before the merger with NW, and that included PDX-NRT, but yes, the current instance of DL's PDX Tokyo service was inherited with the merger with NW though that route operated to NRT, not HND.
Portland was subsidizing the flight to Tokyo to the tune of $3.5 million a year in 2010. (https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2010/06/ports_gamble_on_delta_pays_off.html)
I don't know how long that subsidy continued, but the cynic in my would say that factored into the decision to keep the route, and now, to end service to Tokyo.
So if Delta did not want to operate it from PDX, but did not want to give it up, what gateway did they want to use? A second daily flight from SEA or LAX? A new route from SLC? I am curious if they will reapply once the DOT opens up applications.
SLT couldn't support a Tokyo route even if it had a kicker from the airport and local businesses. No way.
Remember that SLC is a large Delta hub which funnels in traffic from all over the West, as well as some from the East. It already does support flights to AMS, CDG, and LHR. Both Delta and KLM operate SLC-AMS. SLC area might not be able to support a Tokyo route on its own, but Delta could likely make it work if they wanted to.
I’ve avoided SLC at all cost. Never made sense to me and I refuse to make a stopover there! Same with RDU!
Now thinking about it, delta has a track record of making bad decisions.
@vbscrlpt2
DL already tried SLC to NRT, and it lost money. Doubt they'd be all that interested.
SLC could work if done right. Not only is it Delta’s gateway to the west and one of their biggest hubs, but Utah alone is a huge tourist spot amongst Asians and Germans due to the national parks. Hence the reason why Eurowings flies to SLC. Typically Asian passengers would fly to SEA,MSP, or DTW and connect to SLC then travel through Utah down to LAX and fly out of LAX back to Asia. No...
SLC could work if done right. Not only is it Delta’s gateway to the west and one of their biggest hubs, but Utah alone is a huge tourist spot amongst Asians and Germans due to the national parks. Hence the reason why Eurowings flies to SLC. Typically Asian passengers would fly to SEA,MSP, or DTW and connect to SLC then travel through Utah down to LAX and fly out of LAX back to Asia. No matter what Delta has tried they haven’t been able to reverse that order of travel. Therefore a HND-SLC route and eventually the ICN-SLC which will start service sooner than later could ABSOLUTELY be profitable with bringing passengers into SLC, the challenge is making money with passengers leaving SLC to Asia. But I’m sure Delta could figure it out somehow
This would be a good time to remind some people that United acquired a Miami hub to Latin America and quickly dismantled it. United is smaller to Florida now than AA B6 DL NK WN and UA
United is smaller to Florida now than UA?
Also a Decent time to remind people that delta had a hub in dfw but declared bankruptcy and left with their tail between their legs. And still has little to show in Miami despite all your hype.
MaxPower spittin' those FACTS! Not even their sneaky, underhanded nonsense with LATAM could improve their Miami standing.
Any BIG Florida city (TPA,MCO,MIA) to Haneda is what would be good for American and Japanese people. It would outsell the other 11 Haneda routes. As the Japanese would love a 12 month yearly warm weather beach destination too.
The “hub” in MIA you mention was a total of approximately 20-25 flights over the course of the day. It was a small evening bank of 5-ish flights to South America, that were moved to IAD due to the strength of the hub.
Not the same thing as DL closing its DFW hub operation.
to be clear, United is the smallest in Florida of the 6 airlines listed.
Delta took the assets from its DFW hub to build up JFK which is now part of the largest single airline operation in NYC between DL's JFK and LGA hubs as well as its presence at EWR.
UA closed an entire hub including multiple flights to S. America, nowhere near comparable to Delta's decision to abandon a single route...
to be clear, United is the smallest in Florida of the 6 airlines listed.
Delta took the assets from its DFW hub to build up JFK which is now part of the largest single airline operation in NYC between DL's JFK and LGA hubs as well as its presence at EWR.
UA closed an entire hub including multiple flights to S. America, nowhere near comparable to Delta's decision to abandon a single route from PDX.
Comments about destroying the PDX hub fail to admit that DL built a hub in SEA as well has a larger transpac gateway at LAX than it has ever had.
With the currently planned expansions of AA, DL and UA to China, DL will become the largest US airline to Shanghai while AA and UA will both split their Chinese operations between PEK and PVG until and if the Chinese government allows more flights.
NO matter how much anyone tries to spin it, DL's transpacific network has made more money than UA's during the 10 years since DL started to pull down its NRT hub until now.
DL’s “single airline operation” across two airports? I think you meant to say UA’s EWR hub is the best single airline operation in NYC.
As you said, split airline hubs like the ones in HND and NRT are not as good as the ones that operate out of one airport. It’s why UA carries the most passengers through NYC, a number that will continue increasing through all of its upgauging. Even with flight counts...
DL’s “single airline operation” across two airports? I think you meant to say UA’s EWR hub is the best single airline operation in NYC.
As you said, split airline hubs like the ones in HND and NRT are not as good as the ones that operate out of one airport. It’s why UA carries the most passengers through NYC, a number that will continue increasing through all of its upgauging. Even with flight counts down, UA’s pax counts are up significantly across all hubs due to their hundreds of new mainline planes.
given that UA itself has finally admitted that it cannot operate a hub the size that it tried to do at EWR and is cutting, the notion that a single large EWR hub was the best strategy for serving NYC is nonsense.
DL built its NYC hub after CO and UA acquired CO's presence plus added on what UA had and then UA walked away from JFK but having a single hub only works if...
given that UA itself has finally admitted that it cannot operate a hub the size that it tried to do at EWR and is cutting, the notion that a single large EWR hub was the best strategy for serving NYC is nonsense.
DL built its NYC hub after CO and UA acquired CO's presence plus added on what UA had and then UA walked away from JFK but having a single hub only works if the airport can handle a hub that large. No NYC airport has all it takes to be a single hub. DL's strategy spreads their hubs over 2 airports with 5 effective runways compared to UA's EWR hub which has 2 effective runways.
LGA and JFK are nowhere close to being duplicate hubs.
DL also operates large numbers of regional jets at both LGA and JFK and will convert flights to mainline if it makes sense to do so.
Delta has become the largest airline in local traffic in NYC and are not going to give that up.
And if Delta succeeds at adding JFK-HND and then adds JFK-ICN and India, UA will lose the single advantage it has which is NYC to Asia.
UA’s “single advantage” in EWR is Asia? DL has five runways at their NYC hub airports? Is there where we start adding runways across multiple airports to make a random point that isn’t even true, all while ignoring the huge demand for those runways across those airports?
Yes, EWR flight counts are down, but, just like in the Pacific, UA’s strategy in NYC is a step ahead of DL’s. The excess RJ count is down...
UA’s “single advantage” in EWR is Asia? DL has five runways at their NYC hub airports? Is there where we start adding runways across multiple airports to make a random point that isn’t even true, all while ignoring the huge demand for those runways across those airports?
Yes, EWR flight counts are down, but, just like in the Pacific, UA’s strategy in NYC is a step ahead of DL’s. The excess RJ count is down to allow increased efficiency at the airport. In their place is increased mainline flying, allowing more passengers in a more efficiently run airport.
UA has grown in EWR, not shrunk, as you said.
Also, UA’s EWR advantage will always be the ability to run the majority of its traffic through a single airport. You yourself have said split hubs don’t work, when talking about HND/NRT and LHR/LGW. That is why UA is bigger than DL in NYC. and it is an advantage DL will never have.
This really was such a random add by you. Are we just randomly saying where airlines are the smallest now?
Ok…
Delta is the smallest of the big 4 in Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and California.
well, no, Delta is the 2nd largest legacy carrier in CA behind only UA which has long been the largest airline. same for PA behind US/AA.
DL was the smallest of the big 4 in TX even when it had a hub there. same for IL without a hub.
Feel free to list the top 10 states and even more so the top 10 airports and let us know where each carrier falls. make...
well, no, Delta is the 2nd largest legacy carrier in CA behind only UA which has long been the largest airline. same for PA behind US/AA.
DL was the smallest of the big 4 in TX even when it had a hub there. same for IL without a hub.
Feel free to list the top 10 states and even more so the top 10 airports and let us know where each carrier falls. make it top 20.
Delta is very well positioned not just nationwide but also to Asia.
PDX to Asia simply is not part of DL's Asia route strategy.
And despite all of the condemnation that you and others want to throw at DL for dropping PDX-HND, UA dropped PDX to Asia decades ago and neither AA or UA have ever operated a route to Asia that wasn't to/from one of their hubs
Delta should have launched the route out of a hub. For whatever reason, they continue to ignore SLC internationally.
Does SLC have a large Asian population???
As I mentioned above, SLT couldn't support a Tokyo route even with subsidizes. NO WAY.
I put this comment somewhere else but I’ll do it here too. SLC could work if done right. Not only is it Delta’s gateway to the west and one of their biggest hubs, but Utah alone is a huge tourist spot amongst Asians and Germans due to the national parks. Hence the reason why Eurowings flies to SLC. Typically Asian passengers would fly to SEA,MSP, or DTW and connect to SLC then travel through Utah...
I put this comment somewhere else but I’ll do it here too. SLC could work if done right. Not only is it Delta’s gateway to the west and one of their biggest hubs, but Utah alone is a huge tourist spot amongst Asians and Germans due to the national parks. Hence the reason why Eurowings flies to SLC. Typically Asian passengers would fly to SEA,MSP, or DTW and connect to SLC then travel through Utah down to LAX and fly out of LAX back to Asia. No matter what Delta has tried they haven’t been able to reverse that order of travel. Therefore a HND-SLC route and eventually the ICN-SLC which will start service sooner than later could ABSOLUTELY be profitable with bringing passengers into SLC, the challenge is making money with passengers leaving SLC to Asia. But I’m sure Delta could figure it out somehow
Indeed not.
Just as with the Skymiles discussion, let's see how the US-Japan market shakes out in a couple years.
Delta's Portland hub moved metal across the Pacific but had nowhere near the connecting feed necessary to make transpacific flights work.
Delta acquired a Tokyo hub from Northwest which built its then fairly extensive route system around Narita airport.
The Japanese government's stated intent to move all premium carrier longhaul service to Haneda eventually...
Just as with the Skymiles discussion, let's see how the US-Japan market shakes out in a couple years.
Delta's Portland hub moved metal across the Pacific but had nowhere near the connecting feed necessary to make transpacific flights work.
Delta acquired a Tokyo hub from Northwest which built its then fairly extensive route system around Narita airport.
The Japanese government's stated intent to move all premium carrier longhaul service to Haneda eventually was the start of opening HND airport which will be completed at some point in the future.
Portland to Tokyo was not viable as a standalone point to point route even pre-covid but large contracts such as Nike kept it at breakeven levels.
Delta tried to move its beyond Tokyo flights to Haneda when Haneda began to open up but failed.
And none of the discussion about PDX-HND can be had w/o acknowledging that DL built a roughly 150 flight/day hub in SEA that had 4 transpacific flights/day until covid and is limited from returning to that size by China.
By next summer, Delta will have a transpacific system from LAX that is even larger than at SEA.
It is not a strategic failure to pull the plug on strategies that are no longer viable. DL's west coast to Asia network will be from LAX and SEA. UA does not and never has operated a non-hub route to Asia other than from, wait, wait, PDX, which it gave up as part of the Pan Am purchase.
The chances of United getting another HND route are very, very low. American might have a chance given how few Tokyo flights they have but they also have the JAL JV.
Some people love to proclaim failure but let's wait until Delta has 20 more transpacific capable aircraft and a solid market return in Asia and see what Delta does.
The fact is still that with many more flights than Delta, over the past 10 years, United made nowhere near as much as Delta across the Pacific.
it's a marathon, not a sprint.
WAHHHHHH-WAHHH! Timmy needs his Nappy Time!
You keep saying DL is more profitable than UA to Asia with no evidence to back this up. You threw out a reference to a document earlier this year that didn’t even support your claim, especially since there are so many ways to report revenue by region.
Instead of saying DL is more profitable in Asia than UA, can we all acknowledge that DL has shrunk in the region, closing several stations, even today...
You keep saying DL is more profitable than UA to Asia with no evidence to back this up. You threw out a reference to a document earlier this year that didn’t even support your claim, especially since there are so many ways to report revenue by region.
Instead of saying DL is more profitable in Asia than UA, can we all acknowledge that DL has shrunk in the region, closing several stations, even today canceling routes in this time of sky high fares to Asia? DL has to make an attempt at an LAX TPAC hub since SEA isn’t working as well as DL would like, even though LAX yields tend to be lower due to all the competition. You yourself have said DL is a domestic carrier that can’t compete with international airlines, and LAX sees more Asian competition than any other airport.
All this while UA has two separate banks to Asia from SFO. They have increased flying at a record pace, including double daily to SIN, three flights to HKG, and a new TPAC route to MNL. They want to increase flying even more, with an expressed desire for the HND slot DL can’t make work.
If that wasn’t enough, UA begins taking delivery of an additional *100* 787s next year, possibly 200 if options are converted to firm orders.
Tim has been on this talking point about UA & DL in asia for months now... He doesn't understand revenue accounting and seems to have no idea that DOT geographic data isn't standardized. When he says "DL Is more profitable than UA in Asia" all he really knows is that Delta is more profitable than United overall, which is true. But... that doesn't fit Tim's narrative in life so, as usual, he spins data his...
Tim has been on this talking point about UA & DL in asia for months now... He doesn't understand revenue accounting and seems to have no idea that DOT geographic data isn't standardized. When he says "DL Is more profitable than UA in Asia" all he really knows is that Delta is more profitable than United overall, which is true. But... that doesn't fit Tim's narrative in life so, as usual, he spins data his own weird way and figures if he says it enough, someone will believe him.
But it's just the normal Tim Dunn lies. He just has no idea what the DOT is or how revenue accounting works.
google
"DOT Net Income (In Thousands of Dollars $000)
All U.S. Carriers - All regions" and you will get dropdown menus to access the data I have been talking about
You will see that UA lost $418 million flying the Pacific in 2017, 2018 and 2019 while DL during the same 3 years made $856 million.
This is data that each airline provides to the DOT.
UA simply lost huge amounts of money when it was the largest airline across the Pacific, regardless of nationality
Tim, I checked that and no your claims are not supported. Never mind that you’re using data from almost 7 years ago. If out of date information is what you’re using to support claims about today, it’s obvious you have no current data to support your erroneous claims.
Tim, additionally, if you only have data that is completely out of date, you’re only proving everyone’s point that DL squandered whatever advantage they had as they let their efficiencies deteriorate as their competitors gained ground.
losing more money than your competitors is not an advantage.
Delta fixed its problem of losing money flying to Asia while United continued to do so in the late 2010s.
It took covid and China's limits on US-China capacity for United to quit losing money flying the Pacific.
and Delta is readding service to China as fast as United, is larger in the S. Pacific than ever, and will grow ICN.
UA's...
losing more money than your competitors is not an advantage.
Delta fixed its problem of losing money flying to Asia while United continued to do so in the late 2010s.
It took covid and China's limits on US-China capacity for United to quit losing money flying the Pacific.
and Delta is readding service to China as fast as United, is larger in the S. Pacific than ever, and will grow ICN.
UA's lead to Asia/Pacific will not be as large as it once was but all of AA, DL and UA have a better chance of being profitable flying the Pacific than has been the case in decades.
So now advantages need to be as large as they once were?
UA’s advantage in Asia will be huge. They are currently significantly larger than DL and AA *combined*.
Yet you constantly crow about DL being the largest in LAX, even though they are only a percentage point or two bigger than the number two airline, who is only a point or two bigger than number three.
Again, when you have to use old, out of date data to try and prove a point about today’s airline dynamics, you’ve lost the debate.
Logical…..absolutely logical BS.
Delta should return to KIX and other carriers should increase flights. 90% of all Americans who visit for tourist pruposes end up in Kyoto on their cliche "Golden Route" tours, Osaka is a major finance and business hub and is more centrally located to more Japanese cities in terms of proximity and would offer more award availability. Pre-pandemic, Qantas, SwissAir, Alaltalis before they went bust, BA and Air Canada all had routes too
Timmy Dunn needs to increase his anti-depressant mg after this brutal week!
Whatever the eager beaver says - DL flew PDX NRT in 2019 - when they had no fake failed attempt at a pacific hub in Japan. If the beyond traffic was the issue, they would have ended PDX then. The true downfall is that DL has given up so much ground in Asia they have little left to stand on - other than praying the OZ KE merger goes through to give them free reign...
Whatever the eager beaver says - DL flew PDX NRT in 2019 - when they had no fake failed attempt at a pacific hub in Japan. If the beyond traffic was the issue, they would have ended PDX then. The true downfall is that DL has given up so much ground in Asia they have little left to stand on - other than praying the OZ KE merger goes through to give them free reign to have 100% control over Korean airfare. The reality is - DL can’t win when they have competition on equal footing, just look at AS and B6 holding them at bay easily in SEA/BOS. Remember when they were going to try for a focus city in MIA - I’m sure you can guess where that went. Plus them taking BNA (WN) and SJC (UA) off their focus city list.
first, Delta flew PDX-NRT for a short time AFTER the NRT hub was closed and before covid. You do realize that covid rearranged a whole lot of things in the world, don't you?
Second, Delta is waiting to add ICN routes in order to not impact KE's ability to get the merger through. DL will add US-ICN routes and use the A350-1000 on many ICN routes whether the KE-OZ merger goes through or not.
first, Delta flew PDX-NRT for a short time AFTER the NRT hub was closed and before covid. You do realize that covid rearranged a whole lot of things in the world, don't you?
Second, Delta is waiting to add ICN routes in order to not impact KE's ability to get the merger through. DL will add US-ICN routes and use the A350-1000 on many ICN routes whether the KE-OZ merger goes through or not.
3rd, Delta is the 2nd largest airline at SEA, never tried to be the largest and never said so, but is the largest airline at SEA in international and eastern US markets and #2 in the western US. DL and AS are both rational competitors and know what it takes for both to succeed. In Boston, DL is the largest carrier by revenue regardless of how many flights B6 operates. DL has preferential access to gates in the expanded E concourse and will continue to grow as it makes sense.
4th, DL took BNA and SJC off their focus city lists but became the largest airline at LAX and, again at BOS by revenue. You tell me which of those markets is most important. You also realize that SJC traffic for all airlines is way down including on international routes?
5th, PDX has suffered the same post-covid market changes that have been seen in many cities.
6th, DL is and will be the same size to China as UA; China was a big part of UA's size advantage. DL will add other cities outside of China, Japan and Korea in Asia in time.
Rough couple days for you, Timmy
Facts hurt. You can’t always lie your way through life ;)
Yes, China was a big part of the UA size advantage. That has been transferred to double daily SIN, three flights a day to HKG, double daily TPE, and a new TPAC route to MNL.
All four are cities DL doesn’t even serve.
@PSC,
I get the ire with Delta. It's popular these days, and deservedly so. But that said, almost none of what you wrote in that post is factual. Why bother with all that, when there's so many actual failings to hit them with?
I don’t see the market from Portland unless Delta funnels travelers through the city which it has Seattle (although tight) for. I never saw the market.
DL flew PDX to Narita, PDX to Seoul, Taipei, and Bangkok in the 90's with both originating traffic as well as funneled from ATL, CVG, SLC, and DFW. DL HAD the market...the market hasn't changed, only bad decisions from DL.
Sorry, but that's one of the dumbest claims we've seen in a while here.
You're going all the way back to the late 1980s and early 1990s on some of those routes, but want to say with a straight face that "the market hasn't changed." Come on dude.
@Demseyzdad, I'm not a Delta apologist but there is more to this story. I was in PDX in the 90s and flying 100k miles per year on DL, much of it to Asia. It wasn't just a bad decision. The reason that Delta pulled out of their hub in Portland was that there were huge issues with US Immigration at PDX harassing Asian travelers. A number of cases made the news, at least locally, and...
@Demseyzdad, I'm not a Delta apologist but there is more to this story. I was in PDX in the 90s and flying 100k miles per year on DL, much of it to Asia. It wasn't just a bad decision. The reason that Delta pulled out of their hub in Portland was that there were huge issues with US Immigration at PDX harassing Asian travelers. A number of cases made the news, at least locally, and I heard more about it from the DL staff as well. Word got out in Asia and travel originating in Asia to PDX fell off a cliff. Ultimately, DL cancelled all their Asian flights out of PDX and pulled out of PDX, shifting the west coast Asian traffic to LAX. In the matter of a couple years PDX went from a major hub to an outstation with a handful of flights a day to Atlanta, SLC and LAX and I became an Alaska flyer for the next 20 years until I moved east.
The reason airlines were funneling those routes through PDX in the 80s and 90s was because they didn't have the range or demand to operate many non-stop flights from the East to Asia back then. The landscape is vastly different now with several different aircraft that can operate those routes non-stop, including smaller ones like the 787 that can operate long and thin flights profitably. And, of course, at least before Covid, demand for flights...
The reason airlines were funneling those routes through PDX in the 80s and 90s was because they didn't have the range or demand to operate many non-stop flights from the East to Asia back then. The landscape is vastly different now with several different aircraft that can operate those routes non-stop, including smaller ones like the 787 that can operate long and thin flights profitably. And, of course, at least before Covid, demand for flights to Asia was far, far higher than back in the 90s, so plenty of demand for non-stops from the East to be quite profitable. The fact that PDX could reasonably serve as a gateway back then does not mean it has the demand to support such routes without feeder traffic now.
Route should be reassigned to a different Carrier not named Delta (they have played games with routes for years and do not show any commitment to a given market other than ATL). UAL and AA have Joint ventures with two of the large Japanese carriers and either could use the slot as well as Hawaiian
The ANA and JAL JVs are reason to prefer DL or HA over UA or AA for the slot assignments, not reasons to prefer AA or UA. They already don't have to compete with anyone else for the slots that ANA and JAL have available. Allowing other airlines to get a large share of the slots allocated to U.S. carriers helps to improve competition. That said, the PDX route doesn't make sense these days and DoT is right to require the slot to be re-bid.
If AA and UL have a JV with other Japanese airlines, the route should not be given to them. Let Hawaiian, Delta, JetBlue or someone else have it for competitive reasons
Delta has destroyed a good route, they used to fly direct to Manila as a continuation from Narita. Quite simply put, Delta is so heavy into SeaTac. They feel no allegiance to Pdx and serving that airport, they’ld rather route everything north to over saturate and compete with Alaskan
They flew to Manila all the way up until the pandemic killed trans-Pac demand. I wouldn't be surprised to see it return eventually, but from ICN rather than HND (as it already was just before Covid.) It was presumably there mostly for government traffic, since it's required to prefer flights on U.S.-flagged airlines when reasonably possible. The only other option back then was UA via Guam, which also required a stop in HNL to get to GUM.
Sad for Japanese as we need DL as a sizable competitor against JL/AA and NH/UA duopoly.
I think Japan still has loyal DL customers inherited from NW and Dl has lucrative Delta Gold Amex Card offering instant gold medallion status for first year, which could be retained with annual 10000USD spends on that card for subsequent years.
It’s not like you don’t have DL flying to 5 (5!!) other US mainland cities.
Agreed, but more flights means more competitions :)
Sure, but DL flying 6 flights a day or 5 flights a day still doesn’t do much in terms of challenging the duopoly. More is better - OK. But it doesn’t change the math much.
Delta flyers in Japan have actually lost quite a bit in the last 6 or 7 years. They lost the Japanese-based flight attendants, they lost the call center, they lost the two Sky Clubs at Narita, they lost all the intra-Asia flights, Nagoya reduced or eliminated, Guam, Saipan, Palau and Japan-Hawaii flights have been reduced.
DL literally had a monopoly on PDX HND - such that they were selling $10000 round trip fares. You can easily fly them to SEA and connect still.
Delta pilots have complained so much about them moving all their longhaul to JV ‘s so glad they had to give up these flights.
No, Ben, you simply have resorted to writing stories about Delta which you know I will counter because it generates page clicks. I'm happy to put money in your pocket - which clearly selling credit cards and loyalty programs don't do enough of and Delta is threatening your revenues in that line of business.
The facts of the PDX-HND case are:
-NW helped rebuild JAL after WWII and helped NW and Pan Am obtain...
No, Ben, you simply have resorted to writing stories about Delta which you know I will counter because it generates page clicks. I'm happy to put money in your pocket - which clearly selling credit cards and loyalty programs don't do enough of and Delta is threatening your revenues in that line of business.
The facts of the PDX-HND case are:
-NW helped rebuild JAL after WWII and helped NW and Pan Am obtain unprecedented rights beyond Tokyo to other parts of Asia.
- HND was the international airport at Tokyo at the time
- The Japanese government opened NRT and forced virtually all carriers to move their longhaul flights there.
- UA operated PDX-NRT for years but bought Pan Am's Pacific network in 1985 which included Asia flights other than to Tokyo while NW built its Pacific network almost entirely around NRT.
- The DOT required UA to divest PDX-NRT as part of the PA asset acquisition and DL picked up the route as part of building its PDX to Asia mini-hub which lasted a while but like AA's SJC mini-hub never worked.
- When DL merged w NW in 2008, the route became part of the NRT hub operation
- The US and Japanese government pursued Open Skies and, at the same time, the Japanese government decided it wanted to, long-term, make NRT a low cost carrier airport because it could never build it to intended capacity due to a single farmer that would not sell his land to develop runways
- As part of Open Skies, joint venture partnerships developed between AA-JL and UA-NH. DL tried to do a deal w/ JL but was unable because it was already the largest carrier from the US to Japan
- Although the US and Japan have Open Skies, Haneda access is still highly limited by treaty, unlike w/ most Open Skies countries.
- As new HND access slowly became available, DL has repeatedly won more HND access than AA and UA because DL does not have a Japanese JV partner while AA and UA does. The US has granted DL more access to HND to balance JV capacity, not because of luck.
- As DL built its SEA hub and as DL slowly pulled down beyond flights from NRT, PDX-Tokyo became a point to point, non-hub on either end route.
- The PDX economy has taken huge hits during the pandemic and a point to point route is not viable.
those are facts. My opinion is that DL will continue to have preference with the DOT over AA and UA for where the reallocated route will be authorized because of the same joint venture balance issue.
The DOT wants to keep the right to issue rights to itself which is why the denied the request to transfer routes which AA and HA both supported. UA was the only objector.
I believe DL will apply for and win JFK-HND, the largest market they don't serve to Japan and a slam dunk given their hub there.
They briefly loaded DTW-HND as a 339 instead of an A359 so they have the aircraft if they win the rights.
btw, thanks for recognizing how much I influence what happens on your blog. I am proud to be an active participant and do look forward to meeting you and the family. :-)
Tim - one complaint - in your response, and on this blog and VFTW in the past, you’ve posted “the Japanese government decided it wanted to, long-term, make NRT a low cost carrier airport”. That requires some clarification. The Japanese gov’t doesn’t necessarily want to turn NRT into a low-cost carrier airport - it is still an international hub.
What the gov’t has done is required that low cost carriers like Peach fly from...
Tim - one complaint - in your response, and on this blog and VFTW in the past, you’ve posted “the Japanese government decided it wanted to, long-term, make NRT a low cost carrier airport”. That requires some clarification. The Japanese gov’t doesn’t necessarily want to turn NRT into a low-cost carrier airport - it is still an international hub.
What the gov’t has done is required that low cost carriers like Peach fly from NRT and not from HND. Sure, HND is more attractive for international flights (particularly for overseas carriers) but NRT is still more than (and is excepted to remain) just a low cost carrier airport. I don’t believe HND has the capacity to become the sole long-haul premium hub (though LHR has effectively become, so who knows).
“(and is excepted to remain MORE THAN)” - in case context wasn’t clear…
You’re wrong in this. Just because it’s low cost doesn’t mean it’s not international…
By your logic, low-cost carriers like Easyjet and Ryanair would only fly domestic routes.
This was intended towards OCTinPHL not Tim.
@SMC - try reading comprehension. I said NRT was not just low cost, but also international. “NRT is still more than […] just a low cost carrier airport.”
Actually, many Asian LCCs serves Haneda using unrestricted late-night slots.
E.g. MM809 HND 2:20-ICN 4:40
Interesting case is HND-KUL as while Malaysia Airlines gave up HND-KUL and consolidated operations in NRT, LCC AirAsia X serves HND-KUL.
D7 523 HND23:50 - KUL 6:10+1
The Japanese government has said it intends to move all "premium" carrier - AA/JL, DL, HA, NH/UA, Tokyo longhaul routes to HND while NRT will be for longhaul LCC routes.
They simply cannot move all of those flights to HND now because there isn't capacity to do so but that is most definitely the intention.
As for the supposed narcissism, let me know who else Ben was referencing when saying in the article that...
The Japanese government has said it intends to move all "premium" carrier - AA/JL, DL, HA, NH/UA, Tokyo longhaul routes to HND while NRT will be for longhaul LCC routes.
They simply cannot move all of those flights to HND now because there isn't capacity to do so but that is most definitely the intention.
As for the supposed narcissism, let me know who else Ben was referencing when saying in the article that he couldn't wait to see what someone would say if it wasn't me.
I proudly participate in this and other forums because they provide a valuable service and I agree w/ Ben on many topics.
It is clear, just as on other sites, that I am vocal and generate lots of page views both by my own posts as well as how others interact w/ what I write.
It is a healthy dynamic which is why Ben allows me to continue - and I am grateful. I respect him and his thoughts and know that if he didn't want to hear other people, he would turn off comments.
@Tim - where has the gov’t said this: “The Japanese government has said it intends to move all "premium" carrier - AA/JL, DL, HA, NH/UA, Tokyo longhaul routes to HND while NRT will be for longhaul LCC routes.”
Honestly - where? You say it’s true, but I can’t find it. Maybe I’m just not looking hard enough?
@Tim - perhaps this (from Wikipedia): “The Japanese government encourages the use of Haneda for premium business routes and the use of Narita for leisure routes and by low-cost carriers. However, the major full-service carriers may have a choice to fly to both airports.”
My complaint with your posts is that you state such things with certainty, and no nuance - nowhere did the gov’t say it wants to move all premium carrier flights to...
@Tim - perhaps this (from Wikipedia): “The Japanese government encourages the use of Haneda for premium business routes and the use of Narita for leisure routes and by low-cost carriers. However, the major full-service carriers may have a choice to fly to both airports.”
My complaint with your posts is that you state such things with certainty, and no nuance - nowhere did the gov’t say it wants to move all premium carrier flights to Haneda - just premium business routes. Note the word “encourages”, along with full-service carriers have a choice. It does not necessarily intend for NRT to be only LCC. For instance, JL’s SAN-NRT is a perfect example. Not a premium biz route, but still a non-LCC flight.
OCTinPHL, Tim makes many statements as “fact” without any evidence to back them up. He makes his assertions so many times, as if that will make them true.
Exhibit A: his claims that the Japanese government wants to make NRT a LCC airport, in spite of the significant traffic from “premium” carriers.
Exhibit B: his claims over the years that DL is more successful in Asia than UA, in spite of the UA growth as DL continues to close stations and cut flights.
“No, Ben, you simply have resorted to writing stories about Delta which you know I will counter because it generates page clicks”
Here lies the crux of Tim Dunn’s narcissistic OCD mania about himself / Delta.
He actually thinks posts about Delta are instead about him!
Sir, seek the help of your local mental health professional.
@Never In Doubt - at least he is now separating fact from from opinion:
“My opinion is that DL will continue to have preference with the DOT”.
I think he is wrong - I don’t think DOT is just going to give JFK-HND to DL. It may, but I think if UA or AA were to apply for a city not currently being served by a US3 to TOK, then DOT will award...
@Never In Doubt - at least he is now separating fact from from opinion:
“My opinion is that DL will continue to have preference with the DOT”.
I think he is wrong - I don’t think DOT is just going to give JFK-HND to DL. It may, but I think if UA or AA were to apply for a city not currently being served by a US3 to TOK, then DOT will award it to that city over DL at JFK. But that’s just my opinion. And I doubt AA has the strategy or wherewithal to make such a city work.
Narcissist much?
As stated above, DL flew PDX-NRT, PDX-NGO, and PDX-SEL/TPE/BKK in the 90's with 100% capacity and happy passengers. I know because I worked those flights for years. There certainly was originating traffic from Portland, but there was also a great funneling of flights from ATL, CVG, DFW, and SLC.
Bad business decisions from ATL led to the loss of those routes, as well as tunnel-vision focus on JFK due to the PanAm debacle. DL...
As stated above, DL flew PDX-NRT, PDX-NGO, and PDX-SEL/TPE/BKK in the 90's with 100% capacity and happy passengers. I know because I worked those flights for years. There certainly was originating traffic from Portland, but there was also a great funneling of flights from ATL, CVG, DFW, and SLC.
Bad business decisions from ATL led to the loss of those routes, as well as tunnel-vision focus on JFK due to the PanAm debacle. DL knows domestic flying, but they do not understand international flying.
I think aircraft types in the ‘90s had a lot to do with the routings…not necessarily bad judgement.
“Delta made a smart play and by giving up this slot at one of the worlds most slot restricted airports, it shows that they are a truly better airline ran by smarter people. DL management would have used an A35K on this route for superior seat costs regardless of the 41% load factors. The DL SkyClub’s at BNA & MCI are better than AA & UA, so this is helping them win in MIA over AA.” -Tim Dunn
TIMMY: GO TO BED NOW.
It’s hard to even imagine how sad your life must be that you wake up and immediately write a dissertation to Lucky first thing on a Saturday morning.
People like you prove over and over again that delta isn’t a premium airline. No premium airline needs a schill to say it over and over again.
is JFK-HND really a slam dunk though? There are 3 potential sources of business, none of which DL has a clear right to win:
(1) Traffic ex-Japan - goes without saying, but zero chance DL wins any business against NH or JL in any class of service
(2) O/D traffic ex-NYC - corporate contracts allow the purchase of UA / AA marketed NH / JL flights, and even you would have to admit NH and...
is JFK-HND really a slam dunk though? There are 3 potential sources of business, none of which DL has a clear right to win:
(1) Traffic ex-Japan - goes without saying, but zero chance DL wins any business against NH or JL in any class of service
(2) O/D traffic ex-NYC - corporate contracts allow the purchase of UA / AA marketed NH / JL flights, and even you would have to admit NH and JL are leagues above DL, especially in J and F - hard to see them winning premium traffic with their product outside of exclusive corporate contracts
(3) Connecting traffic through NYC area airports - competing against UA at EWR and AA at JFK. Ground experience during connections will be crucial, and without a D1 lounge, DL is at a clear disadvantage vs EWR Polaris lounge and the BA/AA jointly operated lounges at JFK. Perhaps there's a case to be made for success in coach given its LGA/JFK schedule, but that's hardly worth celebrating
would seem foolish for the DOT's to grant a slot that DL has low chance of succeeding
Fact checking - the Japanese government forcing virtually all carriers to move their long haul flights to NRT when it opened I don't believe is true. NRT was opened to operate as Tokyo's International Airport and HND was converted to domestic only. All international flights moved to NRT except for China Airlines (political issues with PRC) and selected charter flights.
NW did not "help JAL rebuild after WWII" . It was founded in 1951...
Fact checking - the Japanese government forcing virtually all carriers to move their long haul flights to NRT when it opened I don't believe is true. NRT was opened to operate as Tokyo's International Airport and HND was converted to domestic only. All international flights moved to NRT except for China Airlines (political issues with PRC) and selected charter flights.
NW did not "help JAL rebuild after WWII" . It was founded in 1951 with an aircraft and crew leased from NW.
you need to do more research.
Nearly all longhaul international flights were required to move from HND to NRT when it was opened; NRT was simply not an option.
1951 is indeed after WWII and NW lent substantial aid to JAL, not the least of which was use of their equipment AND crew.
What would have been interesting is if Delta had announced a return to Guam by doing Portland-Guam-Tokyo.
Portland is a failed city. They can't even get a hometown company like NIKE to keep an OUTLET FACTORY STORE open. That's all You need to know.
It would be great to see DL return to GUM for competition, but 0% chance that would have been from PDX. DL would not launch its sole route to a long-haul destination from an airport where it has little connectivity to the rest of the country. PDX is just an outstation for Delta now with routes only to their hubs and one partner hub.
Not even United operates a non-stop route to the U.S. mainland...
It would be great to see DL return to GUM for competition, but 0% chance that would have been from PDX. DL would not launch its sole route to a long-haul destination from an airport where it has little connectivity to the rest of the country. PDX is just an outstation for Delta now with routes only to their hubs and one partner hub.
Not even United operates a non-stop route to the U.S. mainland - even when they could do a hub-hub route from SFO. There is no chance Delta would launch the sole non-stop flight from the U.S. mainland to GUM from an outstation. If they did launch a GUM route, it would be from SEA or perhaps LAX.
UA launching SFO-GUM on a 787 seems much more likely than Delta launching one from anywhere, though it would still be nice to see DL eventually launch SEA-GUM or LAX-GUM for some competition. Or even compete directly on HNL-GUM.
Before COVID, I believe Portland-Tokyo and Portland-Amsterdam were effectively "the Nike routes." Just like Cincinnati-Paris was and is "the Procter & Gamble route."
Toss in all the problems with crime and empty downtown businesses, Portland just isn't a big O&D market for Tokyo.
CVG to CDG is the "GE Aviation" route now these days. Bigger AC being placed on the route and upping frequency.
Maybe they should start PDX-BKK for the "cannabis route".
Or STL-BRU for the "route bier"
Lazy analysis. The PDX-AMS have very strong load factors. Also British Airways upgauged their flight to a 777. Additionally, Condor and Icelandair serves PDX internationally. I'm guessing someone like JAL or Zipair could take on the Tokyo route.