Several weeks ago, American Airlines was granted slots by the United States Department of Transportation (DOT) to operate a new nonstop flight between New York and Tokyo Haneda. A few days ago, American published the details of the new route. There’s now an additional update, as the flight is on sale, so I wanted to cover all the details.
In this post:
American will offer New York to Tokyo Haneda service
As of June 28, 2024, American Airlines will launch a new route between New York (JFK) and Tokyo Haneda (HND). The new flight will operate with the following schedule:
New York to Tokyo Haneda departing 11:25AM arriving 2:30PM (+1 day)
Tokyo Haneda to New York departing 4:30PM arriving 4:35PM
The new 6,772-mile flight is blocked at 14hr5min to Japan and 13hr5min to the United States. American will use a Boeing 777-200ER for the route, featuring 273 seats. This includes 37 business class seats, 24 premium economy seats, and 212 economy class seats.
This flight is now on sale. However, unsurprisingly, there’s not much in the way of saver award space or upgrade space.
This will be American’s third route to Tokyo Haneda, as the airline otherwise serves the destination from Dallas (DFW) and Los Angeles (LAX). I’m curious to see how American performs in this market:
- Admittedly New York to Tokyo is a big market, with a lot of demand between the two cities
- Currently All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines each operate two daily flights between New York and Tokyo, while United operates two daily flights between Newark and Tokyo
- For some time, American had a big growth strategy in New York thanks to a partnership with JetBlue, whereby JetBlue would provide feed for American’s long haul flights; however, that partnership was discontinued
While I’m not surprised to see American trying to launch this route, I’m not convinced this is going to prove to be terribly lucrative. I mean, who in their right mind would fly American when they could instead fly with All Nippon Airways or Japan Airlines, which offer an infinitely superior experience in all cabins (aside from those looking to upgrade, redeem miles, etc.)?
American will have a higher cost structure than other airlines in the market, while probably also being at a revenue disadvantage. But then again, this is part of a joint venture, so maybe that makes it work. For what it’s worth, Japan Airlines intends to maintain its two daily flights in the market as well.
American beat United for these Tokyo Haneda slots
For some background, Tokyo has two major airports — Narita Airport (NRT) and Haneda Airport (HND). Haneda is much more convenient for those visiting Tokyo, but historically most long haul flights have operated to Narita. However, Haneda has increasingly been opening up slots for long haul flights, which airlines have been very excited about.
Back in 2019, the DOT was in a position to award US airlines a dozen additional slots for Haneda (Japanese airlines were offered a similar number of slots). The DOT is supposed to award these based on what’s in the best interest of the public, so airlines try to make the case for why a particular route is in the public’s best interest.
Those 12 slots ended up being split between four airlines, including American, Delta, Hawaiian, and United. These slots have a “use it or lose it” clause, meaning that if an airline doesn’t operate a route for which it was granted a slot, it will be allocated to another airline.
Due to the pandemic, the DOT had allowed airlines to delay launching these flights. That dormancy waiver ended as of October 2023, and Delta chose to give back some slots, as the airline didn’t operate the Portland to Tokyo Haneda route that it was granted rights for.
Following that, the DOT invited US airlines to make their case for why they should be awarded these slots. The requests were from American and United, and frankly neither airline had a terribly compelling request:
- United wanted to add a Houston to Tokyo Haneda route; however, that route is already served by joint venture partner All Nippon Airways, and United would cut its Houston to Tokyo Narita route, so there would be no net increase in capacity
- American wanted to add a New York to Tokyo Haneda route; while that route is already served by joint venture partner Japan Airlines, at least American would be adding incremental capacity to Tokyo
So while neither request was terribly exciting, there was more merit to granting these slots to American. It’s just too bad the airline didn’t decide to add service out of another hub, which doesn’t currently have a direct link to Japan.
Bottom line
As of June 28, 2024, American will launch a new daily flight between New York and Tokyo Haneda. This will be American’s third route to Tokyo Haneda, and the only route from the East Coast of the United States.
It made sense for the DOT to award this service to American over United’s proposal from Houston, though I’m still not convinced about the economics of the route. American will have limited connectivity, and a worse product and higher costs than other airlines in the market.
What do you make of American launching New York to Tokyo flights?
I'm not sure why American wouldn't run this route out of Philadelphia, given that it would capitalize the market and allow American to feed it's east coast pax through a much better transit hub in PHL (in the words of AA's route guy). Also don't forget that Philadelphia's metro area has about 8 million and the second largest East Coast asian population after New York - and an area with a lot of direct connections...
I'm not sure why American wouldn't run this route out of Philadelphia, given that it would capitalize the market and allow American to feed it's east coast pax through a much better transit hub in PHL (in the words of AA's route guy). Also don't forget that Philadelphia's metro area has about 8 million and the second largest East Coast asian population after New York - and an area with a lot of direct connections to the Japanese/Asian economies. I wouldn't be surprised if this route gets flipped to PHL next summer like AA's Doha service.
just snagged a business class one way AAward in November for 63K miles. The debate here is interesting. When you're flying on miles you take what you can get. Given the lack of available reasonably-priced award seats out of Japan on JL and NH (or pretty much anyone else) I was happy to see this route launch.
I’m headed JFK HND in October but taking a connection in HKG. Flying First Class in CX for 160 Asia Miles transferred from bank points.
I was pleasantly surprised that there might be AA J for less. October 20 had the new route for 124,500 AA miles. Enjoy!
I wonder if DL did the math on flying more out of Detroit to Haneda.
Ben, you really should try a flight to Japan on AA. It is different from other AA flights. The food is on par with JAL(I think it's even better on AA because the food on JAL is alreays served in really small portion), and they offer pajamas which JAL/ANA don't.
JAL's A35K and ANA's The Room do offer superior hard products, however, they still have old products as well. AA's current hard product is...
Ben, you really should try a flight to Japan on AA. It is different from other AA flights. The food is on par with JAL(I think it's even better on AA because the food on JAL is alreays served in really small portion), and they offer pajamas which JAL/ANA don't.
JAL's A35K and ANA's The Room do offer superior hard products, however, they still have old products as well. AA's current hard product is just on par with their old products, and AA will get new business class product with doors in a year.
AA also has far better IFE than JL/NH. A big screen is not the all. Japanese carriers have just lackluster selection of IFE contents.
The FAs can be very different, but I've met the best FA in my life from AA rather than JL/NH. I've flown long-haul business class on JL, NH, BR, KE, OZ, UA, AA, LH, and the LAX-HND flight on AA was the best.
The FAs of Japanese carriers are very consistent, which is an advantage over US carriers, however, I don't think it makes it "infinitely" better. I feel their service is rather robotic and lacks human touch. It's hard to have a small talk with them, and I've never felt their service caters to each passenger.
AA FAs can be miss and hit, but when it's a hit, it can make a phenomenal experience.
If you value consistency over anything else, then I get why you think Japanese carriers are infinitely superior to AA. Maybe I like AA because I haven't had a bad experience with them yet except IROPs.
I agree, I'm losing interest after seeing my fifth SQ review in a row. Like we already know the best airlines are good.
Try some of the other airlines and share the experience on that. Given the primary US audience, it's also pretty underwhelming to see so few US airline flights.
At least Matthew from Live and Let's Fly features a domestic airline in United a good amount (possibly too much).
“Who in their right mind would fly AA”. I will give you one good reason…gasper vents….cool cabins not warm….yes food sucks but oh well bring your own…I have no problem flying AA
It will eventually go the way of their JFK-DOH flight.
No it won’t. HND slots are too valuable. And this route actually makes sense.
No it won’t. HND slots are too valuable. And this route actually makes sense.
JL has the option of moving their HND slots around, which US carriers can't do without going through the reassignment process. Should AA's new flight affect JL's HND-JFK service negatively, JL can move a frequency to anywhere in the US they choose, while still maintaining double daily service via AA. It will be interesting to see what plays out in a year.
i wonder why thy dont fly routes like LAX-CDG LAX-ICN, LAX- GDL, JFK-ICN, JFK-AMS, JFK-IST JFK-STI, JFK- SDQ, and JFK-FRA, it was the top 10 most flown routes either before or after COVID and there are those with only two airlines flying routes like LA-SEOUL and NYC-SEOUL/CIBAO/Santo domingo
DL , KLM , and B5 already serve JFK AMS non stop 5X daily. AA RESUMING JFK - HND is a great addition.
Thinking AA should have used this slot to fly PHL-HND. AA can probably only compete on price vs. ANA/JAL out of JFK. At least with PHL, AA can feed East Coast pax to Tokyo. Chasing a prestige route (JFK) vs. flying out of PHL seems dumb to me. To Ben's past posts, AA is a huge airline, but a glorified domestic airline with a huge international DFW hub. Virtually no one thinks of AA as...
Thinking AA should have used this slot to fly PHL-HND. AA can probably only compete on price vs. ANA/JAL out of JFK. At least with PHL, AA can feed East Coast pax to Tokyo. Chasing a prestige route (JFK) vs. flying out of PHL seems dumb to me. To Ben's past posts, AA is a huge airline, but a glorified domestic airline with a huge international DFW hub. Virtually no one thinks of AA as a global airline that can compete with the world's best out of a global airport such as JFK. Do what you do best AA!
They don't compete with JAL. They have an immunized joint venture. That's one of the absolute keys for this route to work (if it does).
As well as with BA/IB. Add the OneWorld partnerships as well as they are the strongest amongst the Big 3 to LatAm.
It's clear that many people trashing AA have never flown AA to/from Tokyo...so I just ignore them.
AA has to compete with JAL, and does a good job. I've flown them many times from NRT in F and J, and the service is fine. I like JAL alot, but the cabin is just too hot (great when sick).
I once flew JL from CGK to NRT with an oncoming flu, and the heatwave in the cabin was heaven-sent. :-D
AA has a JV with JAL. They don't compete with each other.
I am shocked that even a single person in these comments is suggesting that they would actually choose AA J over JAL or (especially) ANA. These are not remotely comparable hard or soft products. The *only* place AA (or UA or Delta) beats JAL is in temperature, and I haven't yet flown the new JAL cabin; in the new ANA biz, which blows any J other than maybe Qatar out of the water, the temp...
I am shocked that even a single person in these comments is suggesting that they would actually choose AA J over JAL or (especially) ANA. These are not remotely comparable hard or soft products. The *only* place AA (or UA or Delta) beats JAL is in temperature, and I haven't yet flown the new JAL cabin; in the new ANA biz, which blows any J other than maybe Qatar out of the water, the temp was pretty western-feeling to me. But even previous gen JAL is not uncomfortably hot / can't sleep or anywhere near dealbreaker status to me -- and it would have to be to outweigh AA's worse seat, waaaay worse food/drink, and way way way worse service. It would take an enormous discount (in some combination with Haneda vs Narita) to make me even consider taking this flight.
I’d rather fly American in business than JAL in most instances. The JAL apex suite I find to be annoying to fly on given the lack of storage. JAL inflight entertainment is also bad. And those two things matter to me almost more than anything else.
A lot of people seem to have illusions of anything Japanese. Yes, Japanese carriers excel in many aspects, however, I don't think they're that far superior.
JAL may be better in punctuality and consistency of service, however, I feel more comfortable when flying AA even though I'm not very American.
JAL cabin's always hot. The food tastes OK but in small portion. The flight attendants are courteous but I feel they're rather robotic....
A lot of people seem to have illusions of anything Japanese. Yes, Japanese carriers excel in many aspects, however, I don't think they're that far superior.
JAL may be better in punctuality and consistency of service, however, I feel more comfortable when flying AA even though I'm not very American.
JAL cabin's always hot. The food tastes OK but in small portion. The flight attendants are courteous but I feel they're rather robotic. It's hard to have a small talk with them aside from ordering something. Also, their customer service don't have a live chat, so you have to make a call whenever there's an issue with your reservation.
AA's food is OK to me on long-haul routes, the hard product's also OK(it'll take years for JAL to replace all the 77W with the fascinating A35K), and AA flight attendants tend to have more human touch. They can be hit or miss, but most of them were great to me. They're like a friendly granny next door who shares her cookies with you. When you're nice to them, they will be nice to you as well in general.
It’s all the same lounges and you can pre order the Japanese meal from JAL. 37 seats in J on the 772 is a massive increase in capacity with the existing 20 seats on the 788s.
I can actually sleep in AA J- way too hot on every JL flight I've taken, including many in F and J on the 77W and 787-9. If I'm too hot to enjoy the experience then why bother..
Another factor overlooked is the timing of the new AA flights, which resembles UA's schedules. Some of the JL pax would potentially move up to earlier/later departures. It's AAlways good to provide/have options. In the eyes of RM, the flights are neutral and the extra pair of flights would allow for more connectivity (in Japan outside of Tokyo).
Personal preferences, influencers' pet peeves, and $10-$20 worth of meal provisioning budget aside, schedule is a...
Another factor overlooked is the timing of the new AA flights, which resembles UA's schedules. Some of the JL pax would potentially move up to earlier/later departures. It's AAlways good to provide/have options. In the eyes of RM, the flights are neutral and the extra pair of flights would allow for more connectivity (in Japan outside of Tokyo).
Personal preferences, influencers' pet peeves, and $10-$20 worth of meal provisioning budget aside, schedule is a key factor in the choice of flights - esp. in the JV markets where AA and JL coordinate schedules and revenue mgmt.
Lastly, AA will have a bigger POS in the US side. While not big as UA or DL in NYC, they still have contracts/contacts that will be pleased to see AA metal due to various reasons. Let alone some Americans who would deem JL/NH exotic - not my personal view, but as an observation.
Thanks to the competition and technology, US carriers are more or less on par with NH/JL now in hard products across J/W/Y.
That last bit about US carriers being on par with JL/NH on hard product -- just dropped in there -- really kills the credibility of all of the foregoing. Have you not followed the latest JL/NH hard products? No US carrier has anything remotely comparable; only AF First and the ME carriers are in that game with them.
"More or less on par" does not equal to "on par". Years/decades ago, when AA/UA didn't offer flat beds with direct aisle access, NH/JL offered far more competitive hard products, along with the Japanese hospitality (catering and service). Fast forward, US3 have all upgraded long haul fleet and hard products. AA also switched to JL catering since pre-pandemic - identical Japanese meal ex-TYO. The gap is narrowed.
That you "follow the latest JL/NH hard...
"More or less on par" does not equal to "on par". Years/decades ago, when AA/UA didn't offer flat beds with direct aisle access, NH/JL offered far more competitive hard products, along with the Japanese hospitality (catering and service). Fast forward, US3 have all upgraded long haul fleet and hard products. AA also switched to JL catering since pre-pandemic - identical Japanese meal ex-TYO. The gap is narrowed.
That you "follow the latest JL/NH hard products" doesn't mean others do not have the knowledge or experience. Any of US3's IFE catalog puts NH to shame, let alone JL's content which was pathetic to non-existing. I'd rather have more choices and enjoy some content in an acceptable 16inch screen than a 36inch screen with nothing new/exciting to watch. The Room is nice, but for an average-to-tall build, he might have to sleep in a diagonal position or twist the body to fit. Ben called out these nuances too in his prior reviews. I am saying it after flying 8 segments with NH/JL in the last two month, including 3 ex-JFK with NH/JL's new flagship J seats.
Having said that, the differences are more like nuances now, thanks to product innovation in the market. For a corporate or actual frequent traveller, there are many other factors going into the decision of bookings; they are likely not going to spend 5h of layover in HND just for marginally better experience on NH/JL metal. Some just want to rest well inflight so they can focus on meetings and activities upon arrival.
A perfect example is LAX-HND where NH/JL and US3 all have multiple freqs. It may come as a surprise to some "NH/JL followers" that the LFs on AA/UA are just fine. Again, the point is not about which ones are better - a judgement of which would be subjective itself - but the fact that there are way more factors and consideration.
United Polaris, Delta One, and AA Flagship suites. All of these are pretty similar to the ANA and JAL hard products.
JAL has better food, soft/ hard products, great ambiance, and excellent hosts... so why should I fly with AA again?
Unless you are paying a $1.5k premium for the JL A350, I think the AA 772 J hard product beats the JL 77W.
Also, regarding the soft product, AA uses the same caterer as JL for Japan flights.
Only a fool would prefer AA’s seat to JL’s Apex Suites which you almost get a discounted First Class hard product.
With UA have so many customers flying to Asia, this will be a very tough sell for AA.
However AA will dump cheap seats and price wars will begin, and 1+ years later AA will drop the route.
Are you sure AA can't compete with UA in the EWR/JFK - TYO market?
Looking at the two TYO routes where AA & UA compete, AA performs just as well if not better.
LAX - TYO: AA (LF 86%) & UA (LF 79%)
DFW/IAH - TYO: AA (LF 76% & 10.718k pax) & UA (LF 77% & 6.338K pax)
How well you know AA.
No way would I spend more than 2 hours on that airline, let alone trans-pac.
"American will have a higher cost structure than other airlines in the market"
Sort of curious whether this is backed up by anything or just a random off the cuff statement, Lucky? Have you looked at NH and JL cost structures lately? If memory serves, NH and JL will both be flying less dense aircraft (higher CASM via that alone) that are newer, thus higher depreciation or lease expense than the relatively depreciated AA...
"American will have a higher cost structure than other airlines in the market"
Sort of curious whether this is backed up by anything or just a random off the cuff statement, Lucky? Have you looked at NH and JL cost structures lately? If memory serves, NH and JL will both be flying less dense aircraft (higher CASM via that alone) that are newer, thus higher depreciation or lease expense than the relatively depreciated AA 77E. Fuel really isn't anywhere near historic highs so the relative fuel inefficiency of the AA 77E isn't likely going to be a big cost disadvantage vs the cost of a new plane flying with fewer seats.
Revenue Premium? Sure... I'd imagine NH and JL will do better, if only because of their higher premium count aircraft which will create higher RASM via that alone, but is AA really at a cost disadvantage here? Seems like a blanket statement that hasn't been proved out?
based on current fuel prices, the 777-200ER will cost about $50,000 roundtrip in extra fuel costs than the 787-9 or A350-900 for a NYC-Tokyo flight.
I know you have a thing for the a359 but no carrier is flying an a359 or 789 on the route as best I can tell. UA flies a 77e, NH and JL fly the 77w while JL also flies the a35k. What a surprise you have an irrelevant data point related to the a359 ready to go ;)
But yes. Like I said, I’m aware the 77e costs more in fuel, but just throwing...
I know you have a thing for the a359 but no carrier is flying an a359 or 789 on the route as best I can tell. UA flies a 77e, NH and JL fly the 77w while JL also flies the a35k. What a surprise you have an irrelevant data point related to the a359 ready to go ;)
But yes. Like I said, I’m aware the 77e costs more in fuel, but just throwing out a “$50k” more in fuel absent gauge or how depreciated the asset is, isn’t useful information. There is savings offset on the P&L (though not in cash for an owned plane) flying older but depreciated assets vs new more fuel efficient planes. Your beloved delta knows this quite well.
I think he’s referring to labor costs. The wages are higher among the US carriers. In competitive markets without commanding a revenue premium, it’s harder for the US carriers to make money and sometimes even sustain routes. For a fixed level of capital, there will be opportunity costs on the routes flown.
Hey Jeff
That’s kind of what I was getting at… the labor costs among other items. We aren’t talking about China eastern here; I’m not sure JL and NH would have measurably lower wage costs vs aa? Maybe they do, but given the demographic trends in Japan, I’d be a little surprised if there were significant labor savings on NH and JL vs aa so i was curious if the statement was an off...
Hey Jeff
That’s kind of what I was getting at… the labor costs among other items. We aren’t talking about China eastern here; I’m not sure JL and NH would have measurably lower wage costs vs aa? Maybe they do, but given the demographic trends in Japan, I’d be a little surprised if there were significant labor savings on NH and JL vs aa so i was curious if the statement was an off the cuff assumption or a proven fact. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen Lucky do any analysis about cost structure of JL/NH vs AA. American union costs are large but Japan isn’t a low cost labor market either.
That’s all. Just curious if it was an assumption or a fact. Fair to say CASM will
Definitely be higher given lower density on NH and JL vs Aa but I’m not sure the overall statement about total cost structure is true either.
All of the US 3 have similar labor costs and since China Eastern does not fly from the US to Japan, their labor costs don't matter.
I was specifically referring to fuel costs and it does matter who uses more efficient aircraft.
All of the big 3 have modern aircraft and can deploy them where they make the most sense. The Pacific has the longest stage lengths of all 3 international networks. And...
All of the US 3 have similar labor costs and since China Eastern does not fly from the US to Japan, their labor costs don't matter.
I was specifically referring to fuel costs and it does matter who uses more efficient aircraft.
All of the big 3 have modern aircraft and can deploy them where they make the most sense. The Pacific has the longest stage lengths of all 3 international networks. And since you mentioned DL, their Pacific international operation other than HNL-HND is on all new-generation powered aircraft. AA and UA both use older generation aircraft over the Pacific and that does matter.
and the A330-300 still burns a double digit percentage less fuel than the 777-200/ER even on transatlantic/Latin routes.
DL spent $1.5 billion less on fuel in 2023 than AA or UA and, while part of that was due to the benefit from the refinery, DL's fuel efficiency on a system basis is more than 6% better than AA or UA - and DL generated more revenue in the process.
It is ironic that JL is the only one of the 4 carriers that fly NYC-TYO that is on track to having an all new generation powered fleet on that city pair
and the 787-9 and A350-900 have similar fuel costs per passenger while the A350-1000 is even lower.
including the 359 is a point of comparison to the 789 (similar) and 772ER (more expensive)
again. No carrier flies the 789 or A359 on NYC-HND. And, again, you don't seem to understand how planes work.
An A350-1000 burns more fuel than an A359. Full stop. Not a question I'm asking, it's a fact. The A350-1000 will burn more fuel since it's bigger.
In this comment section, Tim, we're talking about the A350s flying NYC-HND. The JL configuration of the A350-1000 has 239 seats. The Delta equivalent on the A359...
again. No carrier flies the 789 or A359 on NYC-HND. And, again, you don't seem to understand how planes work.
An A350-1000 burns more fuel than an A359. Full stop. Not a question I'm asking, it's a fact. The A350-1000 will burn more fuel since it's bigger.
In this comment section, Tim, we're talking about the A350s flying NYC-HND. The JL configuration of the A350-1000 has 239 seats. The Delta equivalent on the A359 (even though they don't fly NYC-HND) are 306 seats and 339. So no, for the purposes of this conversation, while the A350-1000 could theoretically have a lower casm than an A359 if both were densified similarly, they don't have a lower casm for the purpose of this chat.
Especially NOT lower CASM than a JL A359 that doesn't fly internationally but has 375 seats, the A350-1000 certainly does NOT have lower CASM. In fact, the JL A35k has significantly lower seats even than the AA 77e so, while I haven't done the math, it's likely the AA 77e will have lower casm than the JAL A35k Especially if you consider depreciation expense in the CASM Calc.
Though the JL jet will certainly have much higher RASM given its premium configuration.
It's truly like you can't read and are some autobot that resorts to some weird new nonsense about Delta since you don't know how to talk about anything else intelligently.
Go dig in another sandbox unless you want to read what I wrote and respond to that. My point about China Eastern was that JL/NH labor costs aren't low, like a Chinese carriers might be. Comparing a high-cost labor market like Japan to another...
It's truly like you can't read and are some autobot that resorts to some weird new nonsense about Delta since you don't know how to talk about anything else intelligently.
Go dig in another sandbox unless you want to read what I wrote and respond to that. My point about China Eastern was that JL/NH labor costs aren't low, like a Chinese carriers might be. Comparing a high-cost labor market like Japan to another high-cost labor market like the US and assuming Japan is naturally cheaper doesn't make much sense.
China Eastern is a mindless distraction because I didn't say that the cost issue is about labor.
It is about fuel and you don't want to admit that my point makes sense. The whole reason why AA hasn't gotten a cost benefit from its newer fleet is because DL gets better fuel efficiency by using its different fleet types where each is best suited.
AA doesn't use the 787 at JFK - a...
China Eastern is a mindless distraction because I didn't say that the cost issue is about labor.
It is about fuel and you don't want to admit that my point makes sense. The whole reason why AA hasn't gotten a cost benefit from its newer fleet is because DL gets better fuel efficiency by using its different fleet types where each is best suited.
AA doesn't use the 787 at JFK - a market where it desperately needs to win - and so competes w/ the 777-200ER that costs tens of thousands of dollars more to fuel every time than the 787s that AA could use if they could figure out how to use their 777s out of other bases where they are stronger or where those planes sit on the ground for the day such as in S. America.
the only bot is someone that argues about labor instead of the issues I raised and then argues with me for not following your straw man.
Back when AA was flying JFK-Narita, it was common for business flyers to be given a choice by employers: fly First on American or Business on JAL or NH. Of course, AA doesn't offer a competitive soft product to JAL/NH, but one can say that they have at least made Business Class a comfortable ride today, and do in fact offer much better IFE. They will certainly have to discount premium classes to be competitive,...
Back when AA was flying JFK-Narita, it was common for business flyers to be given a choice by employers: fly First on American or Business on JAL or NH. Of course, AA doesn't offer a competitive soft product to JAL/NH, but one can say that they have at least made Business Class a comfortable ride today, and do in fact offer much better IFE. They will certainly have to discount premium classes to be competitive, but I think there will be less reluctance to choose AA than there was 15-20 years ago before the route was dropped, and they will probably fly filled with cargo in both directions and this will be a profitable route.
I take issue with your assertion that nobody would choose AA. I have to say that after flying JL in business from NRT to SFO, I was sorely disappointed by every aspect of the experience. It wasn’t bad, but it was by no means some leap from AA metal, and given it was a small 787-8 business cabin, I expected far more engagement from the crew, which again, was just fine. The food was actually...
I take issue with your assertion that nobody would choose AA. I have to say that after flying JL in business from NRT to SFO, I was sorely disappointed by every aspect of the experience. It wasn’t bad, but it was by no means some leap from AA metal, and given it was a small 787-8 business cabin, I expected far more engagement from the crew, which again, was just fine. The food was actually a significant downgrade! And I selected the Japanese set, with pretty high expectations after 2 weeks in Japan. Let down across the board, I would absolutely choose AA metal if it’s business class, although that could change as the new JL business product is introduced. In first class, that’s a different matter, but even the first class lounge at NRT was just, meh. It pales compared to Cathay first lounges at HKG, and not as good as the Chelsea lounge at JFK.
On the JFK route JAL is flying their A350-1000 and it's head and shoulders above almost anything else in the sky - and one of the few exceptions happens to be NH's 777-300ERs that they also fly to JFK.
AA's hard product in J is no longer embarrassing as a general matter, but JFK-Tokyo has to be one of the most particularly competitive routes in the sky, with NH and JAL providing their best state...
On the JFK route JAL is flying their A350-1000 and it's head and shoulders above almost anything else in the sky - and one of the few exceptions happens to be NH's 777-300ERs that they also fly to JFK.
AA's hard product in J is no longer embarrassing as a general matter, but JFK-Tokyo has to be one of the most particularly competitive routes in the sky, with NH and JAL providing their best state of the art products, which are both world leading and have few peers anywhere - and no peers at all with regard to service or food. Against this AA has a very good - but still inferior - seat, state of the art IFE, can offer more passengers better frequent flyer program status/options, and will have to mostly compete on price. At the right price, I'm a buyer, but at a similar price I wouldn't be.
Fair, but if the route does well for AA, or meets their expectations at least, I imagine they will quickly add the premium heavy new 787-9's to this route, making the hard product more equal. I feel the need to qualify that i have flown the following business classes post-pandemic and so I'm not suggesting that AA is some amazing thing as is, but this is how I rank my 2022/2023 business class experiences in...
Fair, but if the route does well for AA, or meets their expectations at least, I imagine they will quickly add the premium heavy new 787-9's to this route, making the hard product more equal. I feel the need to qualify that i have flown the following business classes post-pandemic and so I'm not suggesting that AA is some amazing thing as is, but this is how I rank my 2022/2023 business class experiences in long haul.
1. Singapore business class (77W, bulkhead, so bigger seat than first on most airlines, and hands down the most refined service I've ever experienced)
2. Qatar business on 772/77W, fantastic, everybody knows, but Singapore was better, full stop.
3. Air France on the A350-900 (formerly Joon) and 77W (decent hard product, very good food and OK service)
4. American 772 business class international (super diamond), I guess i have been lucky with good crews, and I know that can make or break a flight, but the food was decent, the entertainment options are really good, and im sorry but that sundae is just the best.
5. JAL business, 787-8. Food was disappointing, entertainment was really limited, and while Lucky loves the seat, i wasn't a big fan. Ground experience out of NRT was disappointing as well.
AA will be competing with UA from EWR for the non-premium coach traffic given that JL and NH both have premium-configured aircraft w/ limited coach/economy cabins.
UA's EWR-NRT flight will probably be most negatively impacted since even more of the Tokyo market will be served via HND, weakening EWR-NRT to connecting traffic that doesn't fly on the nonstops from NYC to Asia on other carriers. It's not a surprise that UA fought so hard...
AA will be competing with UA from EWR for the non-premium coach traffic given that JL and NH both have premium-configured aircraft w/ limited coach/economy cabins.
UA's EWR-NRT flight will probably be most negatively impacted since even more of the Tokyo market will be served via HND, weakening EWR-NRT to connecting traffic that doesn't fly on the nonstops from NYC to Asia on other carriers. It's not a surprise that UA fought so hard to get the HND flights but lost because it only wanted to replace a NRT flight with a HND flight.
It must have been extremely difficult writing this article being a Delta Fan Boy and
AA hater. Why didn’t Delta put in for this route?
Because Delta plays dirty and got caught gobbling up slots knowing they had no intention serving the routes (non-stop). They then show their shady cards to try and get what the really want. This has long been their
Modus operandi..
funny. Delta is the only one of the big 3 that hasn't been told by the FAA that they are failing to use their slots at US airports.
No, Delta applied for PDX-HND BEFORE COVID and business conditions changed such that it was no longer worth operating from PDX.
Delta VOLUNTARILY gave back its slot.
And it is more than happy to watch AA and UA duke it out among themselves while Delta builds...
funny. Delta is the only one of the big 3 that hasn't been told by the FAA that they are failing to use their slots at US airports.
No, Delta applied for PDX-HND BEFORE COVID and business conditions changed such that it was no longer worth operating from PDX.
Delta VOLUNTARILY gave back its slot.
And it is more than happy to watch AA and UA duke it out among themselves while Delta builds up ICN and still has the most HND flights on its own metal among the big 3.
As hard as it is for you to admit, Delta has played its Pacific strategy quite well - which is why they made 1.8X more per seat mile than UA while AA STILL is not profitable flying the Pacific.
With Mr. Znotins' on again/off again approach to network planning, let's see how long this route lasts. Separately, within the next contract cycle, most phone agent positions will be gone. AA is implementing an online AI chat agent only service model.
Hmmmm big decision .. AA or JL ….no contest
VIP cash spenders eat at the premium lounges and don’t want to be bother and sleep during their flights .
It is the miles customers that are more needy .
Saver award redeemers who are in a premium cabin for the very first time are the neediest passengers you can imagine...
"who in their right mind would fly American when they could instead fly with All Nippon Airways or Japan Airlines"
How about those flying on US government funds who must fly a US-flagged carrier due to the Fly America Act?
Read the "Exception to Fly America Act" and Open Skies Agreement carefully: You CAN fly by Japanese airlines using US government funds. I do it all the time.
The United States currently has Open Skies Agreements in effect with:
European Union (28 countries) (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, including Iceland and Norway)
Read the "Exception to Fly America Act" and Open Skies Agreement carefully: You CAN fly by Japanese airlines using US government funds. I do it all the time.
The United States currently has Open Skies Agreements in effect with:
European Union (28 countries) (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, including Iceland and Norway)
Australia
Switzerland
Japan
The departure time is perfect for connecting passengers flying in from São Paulo, Brazil (GRU). There is huge demanda from flying from Brazil to Japan due to its historical ties and generations of immigrants. JL used to fly back in the day NRT-JFK-GRU.
Who the heck in their "right" mind would fly on a 15+ yr old tin can with FA's way past their prime and with attitude.
Just flew JAL and they are still awesome on food, service, cabin condition even though the 777 was 14 yrs old out of SFO. 100K AS mile redemption for F/C SFO-HND-BKK (yes, the HND-BKK flight was on 777 with F/C)
When is a 15yo 777 a tin can? I have had my share of pleaant AA FAs. The difference in product to me isnt as significant as flight times and cost.
MIA-HND would be a much better choice.
MIA has been pushing for a flight to Asia.
-AA would have the market all to themselves. As Lucky states, almost everyone would rather fly JAL/ANA than AA to Japan.
-Obviously MIA is a huge hub.
-All south could feed to MIA.
-Great to avoid winter weather in JFK.
problem is that MIA affords virtually no domestic connections and MIA is in the "opposite corner" of the US from Japan so every Tokyo flight can compete for MIA and Florida traffic
It's also worth noting that DL manages to make ATL-East Asia work well but ATL is 600 miles north of MIA and allows connections to much more of the country.
And DL also has a fairly extensive network from ATL to...
problem is that MIA affords virtually no domestic connections and MIA is in the "opposite corner" of the US from Japan so every Tokyo flight can compete for MIA and Florida traffic
It's also worth noting that DL manages to make ATL-East Asia work well but ATL is 600 miles north of MIA and allows connections to much more of the country.
And DL also has a fairly extensive network from ATL to Latin America although AA at DFW and UA at IAH compete for some of that - and AA will compete for some of it over JFK.
But more and more Latin America to East Asia traffic is being carried over the Middle East hubs.
Why did you need to mention DL in this comment? You basically sound like this:
"A route like that would never work. Except for DL, they do something similar and it's brilliant and super successful."
Miami can "push for a flight to (east) Asia" all it wants, but it has negligible total demand, and even worse demand by revenue.
It does have double-digit PDEW to Manila and Taipei, due to shipping, but the yield from that is in a ditch.
It actually has fairly lucrative demand to Hong Kong (hence Cathay rather publicly inquiring about increased-range A350s to serve HKG-MIA in 2016, but as we all know, that never...
Miami can "push for a flight to (east) Asia" all it wants, but it has negligible total demand, and even worse demand by revenue.
It does have double-digit PDEW to Manila and Taipei, due to shipping, but the yield from that is in a ditch.
It actually has fairly lucrative demand to Hong Kong (hence Cathay rather publicly inquiring about increased-range A350s to serve HKG-MIA in 2016, but as we all know, that never happened)/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-01/cathay-interested-in-bigger-airbus-a350-to-reach-miami-non-stop
But getting back to Tokyo: I don't have current numbers, but using 2019... among unserved US metropolitan markets: Vegas, Orlando, Nashville, and Indianapolis all had more PDEW to TYO (HND+NRT) than Miami did; and LAS had more than MIA+FLL+PBI combined.
Lol many americans would rather fly an american airline. They think for some reason it's easier to communicate in English, they are picky with Asian food, etc. It's stupid but true. Not everyone who travels to Japan is actually cultured...
Exactly, why on earth would I choose any US airlines if I can fly out with top 10 Asian airline? Even Delta, the best in the US, is just subpar at rank 20 among the world.
It comes down to the massive size of the US airlines and their ability to serve so much of the US; even JVs can't match the economics of US carrier metal to metal connections.
The US carriers offer the service they do because people are willing to pay for it.
Do some of you put the slightest bit of thought into these comments?
There's plenty of reasons why passengers, especially biz travelers, might be on AA vs JL... not the least being that many of them have no control over the corporate booking.
Then there's those AAdvantage elite members who wish to use a Systemwide.
Departure/arrival time can also be a factor. I've not taken the time to check what disparity (if any) there might...
Do some of you put the slightest bit of thought into these comments?
There's plenty of reasons why passengers, especially biz travelers, might be on AA vs JL... not the least being that many of them have no control over the corporate booking.
Then there's those AAdvantage elite members who wish to use a Systemwide.
Departure/arrival time can also be a factor. I've not taken the time to check what disparity (if any) there might be between the AA and JL timings, but if there is one, then that's a differentiator as well, etc.
And of course, there's the biggest factor of all for non-biz travelers: price. The airlines share a joint venture, but that doesn't guarantee that their price-point will be the same, especially in a (re)launch scenario.
So yes, despite popular AvGeek lore-- there's plenty of reasons that people can, might, and will choose AA's offering over JL/NH's.
Also Hawaiian gave up night time slot in HND and UA would take it for HND-GUM service (night slot in Haneda is not suitable for mainland flight - as AA gave up their NY flight with them years ago).
It is always nicer to see the slots are in use rather than being dormant.
American should fly from EWR to HND so one world passenger have a choice to fly out of either JFK or EWR just like the ANA UA partnership.
Why would American choose to fly out of EWR? Or anyone for that matter. It's not like they have a ton of OW partners or other connectivity feeding into EWR. JFK is the right choice between the two
Agree with your comment on the Japanese carriers having a better hard and soft product. The idea of competition is to provide choice for customers. Either AA lifts its game or offers lower prices to attract customers.
Infinitely better is an overstatement imo. Recently flown JL 777 J and 787 J several times and it was lackluster. Not that much better than American’s. I feel the Japan airlines have degraded over time while US ones have improved, making their difference smaller.
Having flown both in the last 2 years, nothing has changed. Infinitely better is spot on. Yes, Japanese airlines may have slipped slightly, but US airlines were still the trash they always were (relatively).
Surprised with an East coast service, as closure of Russian airspace, as Lucky expected with AA lower yield may not be viable for an east coast route.
Flights to Japan from the East coast don't usually fly over Russia even pre-war. Flights usually fly over Fairbanks, then eventually cross the Bering and Pacific east of the Russian peninsula before reaching Japan.
Why? What is the purpose of serving a route that a JV partner already operates? Especially when that partner has 3 inches more legroom in regular economy not to mention all around better service. And from a non-hub market that they decided they no longer care about? Unless they’ve decided that they want to move back into JFK this is a waste of a slot that could be used on unserved Philly-Tokyo nearby or from one of the many other AA hubs.
Probably because no one wants to connect in PHL to fly to Tokyo? Do you really think there's enough people in Philly to sustain this route?
Ben asks: "I mean, who in their right mind would fly American when they could instead fly with All Nippon Airways or Japan Airlines, which offer an infinitely superior experience in all cabins?"
Many people in the real world can't buy J fares. For those people, upgrade chances matter. AA MCE + SWU possibility to J is a reason. JAL's Y is good, but if I've got the chance to upgrade, I'll take AA's MCE.
@ Bob -- I definitely didn't phrase the question correctly. You're absolutely right, those upgrading, those booking saver award tickets, etc., would probably gladly fly American. I should have phrased it as asking who in their right mind who will also make the flight profitable would choose to fly American over a competitor.
Of course I also totally like the idea of using a systemwide upgrade for business class, but flying a sub-$1,000 roundtrip ticket...
@ Bob -- I definitely didn't phrase the question correctly. You're absolutely right, those upgrading, those booking saver award tickets, etc., would probably gladly fly American. I should have phrased it as asking who in their right mind who will also make the flight profitable would choose to fly American over a competitor.
Of course I also totally like the idea of using a systemwide upgrade for business class, but flying a sub-$1,000 roundtrip ticket to Tokyo and ending up in business class won't be profitable for American.
But both ANA and JAL has the most premium heavy configuration serving the route, which has very little EY capacity. While AA is sending an 777-200ER, which provided a lot more EY capacity.
But not sure if the flight will have full payload, due longer flying time for not entering Russian Air space.
It’s almost like AA already flies a route to HND 2x daily that JL and NH do and somehow customers pick aa
Your comment is kind of dramatic, lucky.
Ben let’s get on with this new JAL first class review . I would expedite . I’m already seeing a lot of stories and videos of people who have flown already.
Being part of the JV with Japan Air Lines the route gives another route to Asia and should be successful if marketed correctly with the ability to tap into all the destinations that JAL operates. No other US based carrier was serving the route from JFK and it was born to happen.
Not a new route, I've flown JFK to HND on AA about 10 years ago
No you didn’t lol.
Not sure why I said lol. But you flew JFK-NRT for sure, unless a diversion occurred.
@DFW Flyer -
AA used to fly JFK-HND, not NRT. So, yes, Luke did fly AA JFK-HND.
AA had both. They had a daytime JFK-NRT flight for several years in the 2000s (I flew it in 2005 or 2006), and then had a late night JFK-HND flight for a shorter time in the early 2010s.
AA flew JFK-HND from the first granting of US slot, through December 1, 2013.
Apologies to Luke. News to me, thanks!
Part of me still kinda wished they operated HND from PHX. After all, DEN has a smaller population and economy, and similar-ish geographic location to PHX, yet it has service to TYO (albeit to NRT). Anyone knows why PHX doesn’t have service to TYO?
Because it's a relatively low-yield market with little international O&D demand.
When did AA ever fly PHX-HND?
Never, although way back in the early 90s America West had a short-lived PHX-HNL-NGO route with almost no passengers.
Im curious as to why American didnt request the Haneda slots to fly from Miami, knowing how MIA desperately want nonstop flights to East Asia, maybe they would have gotten some subsidies to make it happen. And at 7469 miles, the distance is shorter that the current longest AA flight from LAX to Sydney and also way shorter than their longest flown flight from Dallas to Hong Kong.
That being said, a new flight...
Im curious as to why American didnt request the Haneda slots to fly from Miami, knowing how MIA desperately want nonstop flights to East Asia, maybe they would have gotten some subsidies to make it happen. And at 7469 miles, the distance is shorter that the current longest AA flight from LAX to Sydney and also way shorter than their longest flown flight from Dallas to Hong Kong.
That being said, a new flight to Haneda from Charlotte, Philadelphia or Phoenix would also have been more exciting additions than JFK.
holy cow, Ben.
Some of these folks are fixated.
And AA's role will be to carry economy and "discount" business passengers.
JL has a great product but they have very few economy seats and they don't sell every business class fare at the top tier amount.
JL might benefit by allowing AA to carry award revenue so JL can carry "paid" customers.
Given that it is a JV, it all comes out in the wash but AA is the service underdog in this market.
Aa is gonna be fine.
Customers airlines care about book on frequency and aa/JL know that. My guess is aa will replace JL on the route and JL will open a new route from HNd, probably Seattle if we’re being honest.
Your amusing rant that aa is gonna rely on mileage redemptions lol. I know you hope that but c’mon…
Your average J customer doesn’t book on the best J redemption deal like...
Aa is gonna be fine.
Customers airlines care about book on frequency and aa/JL know that. My guess is aa will replace JL on the route and JL will open a new route from HNd, probably Seattle if we’re being honest.
Your amusing rant that aa is gonna rely on mileage redemptions lol. I know you hope that but c’mon…
Your average J customer doesn’t book on the best J redemption deal like lucky regardless of date and time. They book on timing and a bed with a decent glass of wine to get to Tokyo or beyond when they need to be there because their company told them to be. The CEOs flying this route are private or F on NH or JL. As much as bloggers love to rant about the champagne served, delta and aa know their customers don’t care (be honest. Delta isn’t serving anything close to JL either because they know their customers)
no, MAX,
AA operates premium configured 777-300ERs that are becoming A350-1000s.
AA will not replace anything JL has.
AA and JL share revenue - based on the capacity contribution that each carrier brings to the JV. This new route just adds a little more of JL's money that AA can claim.
and data shows that AA gets far lower average fares where it has flown in the same market with JL...
no, MAX,
AA operates premium configured 777-300ERs that are becoming A350-1000s.
AA will not replace anything JL has.
AA and JL share revenue - based on the capacity contribution that each carrier brings to the JV. This new route just adds a little more of JL's money that AA can claim.
and data shows that AA gets far lower average fares where it has flown in the same market with JL so it is solely a dream of yours that AA is going to carry anywhere near the premium revenue that JL carries. They won't.
I didn't say that DL carries average fares comparable to JL and NH. UA doesn't either.
I mean JL and NH operate premium configured 777-300ERs and JL's will become A350-1000s
It’s like you didn’t even read what I wrote and replied by going off on a random topic.
Yet another weird attempt for you to bring a350 nonsense into this conversation :). Yes, I know what JL and NH fly on jfk-HND. So? Frequency and timing do still matter. I never said the aa 777 product is as nice as JL though frankly your average corporate customer in NYC isn’t reading OMAAT or tpg...
It’s like you didn’t even read what I wrote and replied by going off on a random topic.
Yet another weird attempt for you to bring a350 nonsense into this conversation :). Yes, I know what JL and NH fly on jfk-HND. So? Frequency and timing do still matter. I never said the aa 777 product is as nice as JL though frankly your average corporate customer in NYC isn’t reading OMAAT or tpg desperately searching for trip reviews to decide which airline to fly, they just aren’t.
you are so weirdly obsessed and have no grasp of a depreciated asset vs fuel economy, it’s the same reason delta keeps around around ancient 767s
Aa already flies lax-hnd 2x daily vs JL, NH, and others and holds its own quite well. Your dire predictions about them competing against them out of JfK are amusing but only that, amusing absent knowledge.
The average corporate customer knows precisely what products are available on each of the US carriers and will book the best that their corporate agreement allows. JL and NH target the premium customer and don't even try to go for volume in the NYC market with many economy seats.
As for the 767 - which is yours and others favorite whipping boy - DL managed to generate $4 billion more revenue in 2023 than UA...
The average corporate customer knows precisely what products are available on each of the US carriers and will book the best that their corporate agreement allows. JL and NH target the premium customer and don't even try to go for volume in the NYC market with many economy seats.
As for the 767 - which is yours and others favorite whipping boy - DL managed to generate $4 billion more revenue in 2023 than UA and $5 billion more than AA, DL burned 200 million less gallons which is 5% less than AA and 7% less than UA, and spent over $1 billion less on fuel while having the lowest debt of the big 3. DL's fleet and fuel strategy is the best in the industry. DL spent less per gallon on jet fuel than WN which hedges. The refinery makes a big difference
Fuel bill for 2023
AA $12.251 billion
DL $11.069 billion
UA $12.651 billion
Fuel efficient aircraft matter THE MOST on longhaul international routes, esp. on the Pacific. That is why DL's Pacific fleet other than HNL-HND has all new generation engines and the 767s fly short routes to S. America, Europe and Hawaii.
AA will spend $25,000 more fuel on every JFK-HND flight using the 777-200ER compared to the 787-9.
UA also uses the 777-200ER on EWR-HND but the 787-9 to NRT which gets less revenue.
and even Delta's A330-300s burn 15% less fuel than the 777-200ER.
As hard as it for you to accept, DL made the right decision in getting rid of the 777 and buying new generation A339s and A350s and AA and UA will pay the price for holding onto their much larger fleets of both versions of 777s
It truly is funny seeing you try to use raw data absent knowledge
Using a fuel bill absent stage length? Cute, but your usual ignorance trying to sound smart
And as we’ve discussed
There are many reasons surrounding delta’s profits, trying to say they have the most fuel efficient fleet as a reason is laughable. Delta themselves says their monopoly hubs are the source of their profits.
Why has delta so desperately tried...
It truly is funny seeing you try to use raw data absent knowledge
Using a fuel bill absent stage length? Cute, but your usual ignorance trying to sound smart
And as we’ve discussed
There are many reasons surrounding delta’s profits, trying to say they have the most fuel efficient fleet as a reason is laughable. Delta themselves says their monopoly hubs are the source of their profits.
Why has delta so desperately tried to sell their refinery if it’s so great?
Your spin doctoring is amusing
Your accounting knowledge is laughable and it shows
there is no adjustment that can eliminate the higher fuel burn on AA and UA because of their usage of the 777-200/ER which is the most fuel inefficient widebody and their much higher usage of regional jets - of which there is no MAX or NEO version.
Add in the refinery benefit and DL spends far less on fuel and that benefit goes directly to the bottom line and allows DL to compete in...
there is no adjustment that can eliminate the higher fuel burn on AA and UA because of their usage of the 777-200/ER which is the most fuel inefficient widebody and their much higher usage of regional jets - of which there is no MAX or NEO version.
Add in the refinery benefit and DL spends far less on fuel and that benefit goes directly to the bottom line and allows DL to compete in major markets. DL has focused its competitive efforts on AA - because AA does a poor job of retaining business travelers - but will be focusing on UA in longhaul international markets in the next few years.
NYC, BOS and LAX are not exactly monopoly markets, MAX, and yet DL is the largest carrier in all of those.
And, if monopolizing your hub markets were all it took to be profitable, why couldn't AA and UA figure out how to do that in the 45 years since US domestic markets were deregulated?
WN has higher market share in its hubs than AA and UA.
I THOUGHT THIS ARTICLE WAS ABOUT AMERICAN AIRLINES FLYING TO HANEDA, JAPAN.
In a zany kind of way, delta comes out ahead here. I just am not sure how !!
since you insist, the Delta "connection" is because this weakens UA's position in NYC which matters to DL since UA, not AA, is DL's real competition in NYC
UA is a repeated loser this week.
HA also supposedly gave up its nighttime HND flight so UA might be able to apply for that for GUM but UA really only wanted another HND flight to block AA and DL from getting anything else.
But they will shift a GUM-NRT flight to HND just as they proposed doing with IAH
Maybe Tim,
Here’s the thing. UA is the largest international carrier by far, that matters to me and some others.
When and if that changes, we shall see. Is there path for DL to catch up someday? Sure. But it’s just a bet. Not wanting to happen, but please pray to not have any manufacturing issues in A350-1k. For just one example in grand scheme of things that could make growth plans go...
Maybe Tim,
Here’s the thing. UA is the largest international carrier by far, that matters to me and some others.
When and if that changes, we shall see. Is there path for DL to catch up someday? Sure. But it’s just a bet. Not wanting to happen, but please pray to not have any manufacturing issues in A350-1k. For just one example in grand scheme of things that could make growth plans go awry, like UA just now.
And before you get to profit, I’m a passenger, Not a share holder. Don’t care if DL takes over Apple in market value.
And trust me, UA, AA and even DL will be around for next 10 ++ years. Govt will make sure of that
I'm not talking about anyone's demise.
You and others love to talk about international size but actual facts escape you.
DL will retake its position over the Atlantic as the largest carrier by revenue in 2024.
DL will overtake UA as the largest carrier in Latin America because of the Latam JV. DL is flying 767s where UA is flying 737s and DL is flying A350s where UA is flying 787s or...
I'm not talking about anyone's demise.
You and others love to talk about international size but actual facts escape you.
DL will retake its position over the Atlantic as the largest carrier by revenue in 2024.
DL will overtake UA as the largest carrier in Latin America because of the Latam JV. DL is flying 767s where UA is flying 737s and DL is flying A350s where UA is flying 787s or 777s.
HND growth is limited by the treaty between the US and Japan. NRT doesn't work as a local market because HND pulls all of the high value traffic.
ICN has growth capacity and DL will grow as soon as the KE-OZ merger is decided one way or another.
AA operates 5 flights to Japan and Korea and that will grow to 6 with JFK-HND. DL operates 10 and that will grow to 11 with ATL-ICN #2. UA operates 10 and that will grow to 11 if they get GUM.
DL is expected to launch LAX-ICN later this year, followed by JFK and SLC in 2025.
DL will be the largest US carrier from the US to Japan and Korea combined on its own metal.
Given that flights to China are capped and all US carriers are or can be at the same level - DL and UA have asked for equal amounts of flights, DL will be the largest carrier on its own metal to Japan, S. Korea and China.
And if you want to include JV partners, KE is a larger transpacific carrier than JL or NH.
The DL/KE JV is larger than AA/JL or UA/NH and the DL/KE JV will continue to grow.
UA's size in Asia comes from its destinations in HKG and south. DL is re-adding TPE and will keep adding flights from the US to the Pacific Rim with the 36 A350s it has on order, most of which will be delivered in the next 5 years.
UA's position in Asia is threatened. AA doesn't care because there is nothing they can do.
You love to talk about size but let's hear your response when confronted w/ facts.
UA got a big boost in its international size because it held onto old 777s after the pandemic.
UA has a much less efficient fleet than DL and DL does have the capacity coming in along w/ the JVs to overtake UA across the Atlantic, to Latin America and could easily reach parity w/ UA across the Pacific.
UA burned 6% more fuel than DL in 2023, generated less passenger revenue, and earned $2 billion less in profits. You might think those numbers don't matter but DL has the upper hand in growth and Scott Kirby knows it. You can't earn $2 billion less than a competitor on very similar amounts of revenue and do the same things that the other guy can do.
He is running scared. The MAX 9 grounding and the FAA cap on Boeing production has him in a tailspin.
His strategies are in severe crisis.
UA has long been a distant 3rd to AA and DL domestically and DL could well match if not overtake them internationally within a couple years.
Now tell me why you are fixated with UA because of their size.
Why are you comparing UA and DL size to Japan “and Korea”? The article is about Japan, a country with a much larger economy than Korea. You randomly set the goal posts to suit your agenda. Should we say UA has more flights than DL to “Japan, Korea, HKG, and SIN”?
UA is able to take advantage of that huge O&D in Japan while also capitalizing on the power of their JV with NH....
Why are you comparing UA and DL size to Japan “and Korea”? The article is about Japan, a country with a much larger economy than Korea. You randomly set the goal posts to suit your agenda. Should we say UA has more flights than DL to “Japan, Korea, HKG, and SIN”?
UA is able to take advantage of that huge O&D in Japan while also capitalizing on the power of their JV with NH.
Yes DL just ordered 20 A350s but they have double that number of 767s to retire, all while UA has a much larger widebody fleet with many more premium seats, with *150* 787s on order. After retirements and reduced delivery rates are taken into account, what is the net increase in DL’s fleet this year.
UA has significantly more growth planned than DL. Even with reduced delivery rates, UA, after taking retirements into account, is still expecting a net fleet increase of over 100 planes. They’ll soon be number one domestically as well as internationally. UA will have over 1,000 mainline planes by the end of 2024, again, taking into account reduced delivery rates and planned retirements.
Mark,
because Japan and Korea serve the same purpose.
They are local and connecting markets.
DL is the largest US carrier at HND and HND is all about the local market.
You would like to talk about UA's size including NRT but NRT still exists because of its ability to connect traffic to the rest of Asia, something HND doesn't do very well. That's why HND plus NRT plus ICN is...
Mark,
because Japan and Korea serve the same purpose.
They are local and connecting markets.
DL is the largest US carrier at HND and HND is all about the local market.
You would like to talk about UA's size including NRT but NRT still exists because of its ability to connect traffic to the rest of Asia, something HND doesn't do very well. That's why HND plus NRT plus ICN is a legitimate comparison.
DL already had 16 A350s and 12 A330-900s on order and added 20 A350-1000s so DL actually 48 growth aircraft that are Pacific capable. DL is also converting the ex-Latam A350s to DL standard configuration (actually the new more premium configuration of 275 seats) so DL really will have 57 additional transpacific capable aircraft in the next 5 years and 25 of them in the next 3. That is more than enough to do whatever Delta needs to do across the Pacific.
The Delta order is not a replacement for all of the 767s. And it is always funny how you and others think that DL has to use its new aircraft deliveries to replace its 767s but UA's new deliveries are for growth even though the DL and UA 767 fleets are almost identically aged.
UA also has 75 777-200ERs that are not only older than DL's A330 and A350 fleets but far less fuel efficient.
UA simply will not be using its 150 787s even predominantly to grow - but if they do hold onto all of the 777s, they will be competing with much more costs. DL already earned $2 billion more in profits in 2023; if UA wants to saddle itself w/ even more costs, I'm sure DL would love to see UA keep grasping for growth.
and, DL will reach 1000 mainline aircraft before UA. DL has just 35 more to go and some of those will be reactivations or inductions of used or parked airplanes.
UA execs just said they do not expect to receive their MAX orders for 2024 anywhere close to schedule - making their deliveries necessary to reach 1000 much longer.
UA has trumpeted size for years and DL, without making a lot of noise, is doing what UA said it would do.
And specific to NYC, DL has already handedly overtaken UA to S. America w/ GIG, GRU, EZE, and BOG plus MEX, CUN, STI, SDQ, and SJU - a longer list than either AA or UA. Throw in LIM and SCL via the Latam JV and DL has handedly become the largest carrier from NYC to Latin America. LAX has a different but smaller list but the principle is the same.
DL is happy to let AA and UA duke it out for NYC-HND. DL has already taken S. America, will retake US-Europe in 2024; UA execs just said they are not growing to Europe this year while DL is. DL will add JFK-ICN and India. Even if UA adds more longhaul routes, they will be doing it with 787s which are smaller than either version of the A350.
UA committed to the MAX and is getting burnt based on the slowdown of deliveries and stuck w/ the 787 when the A350 is a larger and more capable aircraft.
UA is simply not going to have the international dominance it has now or you or they thinks it will have.
Kirby's strategies of dominance and growth are vaporizing before his eyes.
Tim, I think his point re: Japan vs Korea is not that it's not an apt comparison, but that Japan's economy and population are nearly 3x that of Korea's. It doesn't matter how big the DL/KE JV is in terms of capacity (although by my count, UA/NH has 29 flights between the US and Japan/Korea, while DL/KE only has 26). DL might be the biggest US carrier at HND, but you have to compare that...
Tim, I think his point re: Japan vs Korea is not that it's not an apt comparison, but that Japan's economy and population are nearly 3x that of Korea's. It doesn't matter how big the DL/KE JV is in terms of capacity (although by my count, UA/NH has 29 flights between the US and Japan/Korea, while DL/KE only has 26). DL might be the biggest US carrier at HND, but you have to compare that to the UA/NH JV as a whole, and you can't also fully discount NRT given that it handles a good chunk of connecting traffic.
All things considered, you'd rather have NH or JL as a JV partner than KE, simply because O&D between Japan and the US is both higher yield AND greater volume. Even just looking at leisure traffic, there's way more premium leisure demand to Japan (between TYO, KIX, and CTS) vs just SEL in Korea (which is more of a mid tier leisure destination in the grand scheme of things). Sure, there's the secondary concern of connecting traffic, but for UA, they either have direct service to the high yield markets (TPE, HKG, SIN, maybe DEL), or it's low yield leisure traffic (BKK, KUL, SGN, HAN, a good number of Chinese cities) that is either captured by the JV (via NRT) or not worth pursuing.
Finally, it's also worth calling out that both NH and JL are considered better airlines than KE from a customer experience standpoint - probably to the same degree that DL is better than UA / AA, so maybe that's a wash.
Maybe to put a finer point onto this - it doesn't matter how fast DL / KE grows service to ICN. They're competing for dominance of a much smaller pie. I'd rather be UA / NH, where I already have a dominant position in a pie that's at least 3x as lucrative.
II,
you don't understand that ICN is for connections just as NRT is.
NRT no longer is viable for the local Tokyo market because there are now so many flights to HND - even though they are still limited.
When you compare HND to HND, DL still has the largest presence.
And if you compare the amount of local Tokyo traffic and revenue that goes just through NRT compared to the...
II,
you don't understand that ICN is for connections just as NRT is.
NRT no longer is viable for the local Tokyo market because there are now so many flights to HND - even though they are still limited.
When you compare HND to HND, DL still has the largest presence.
And if you compare the amount of local Tokyo traffic and revenue that goes just through NRT compared to the amount of local traffic and revenue at ICN, ICN is now larger than NRT.
South Korea is a smaller market than Japan but it has one major transpacific airport while Japan splits the Tokyo market between NRT and HND and most of the local market now goes to HND - where DL competes quite favorably.
Totally understand the point of NRT being for connections vs HND - the point I'm trying to make is that the UA/NH JV is able to compete vs DL/KE JV on transpacific coverage because NH still offers connections to much of Asia out of NRT. It might be the case that the coverage is more limited, but it's not a slam dunk for DL/KE.
Now comparing HND to HND - sure, DL may have the...
Totally understand the point of NRT being for connections vs HND - the point I'm trying to make is that the UA/NH JV is able to compete vs DL/KE JV on transpacific coverage because NH still offers connections to much of Asia out of NRT. It might be the case that the coverage is more limited, but it's not a slam dunk for DL/KE.
Now comparing HND to HND - sure, DL may have the most direct HND service out of the US carriers, but that is a meaningless comparison without factoring in NH or JL. Combined, UA/NH blows DL out of the water. This also isn't taking into account the fact that DL's HND service outside of LAX is mostly from secondary cities (DTW, MSP, ATL, SEA), where the level of premium O&D is questionable compared to SFO, ORD, EWR/JFK.
I can concede UA losing on customer experience to DL, but even you have to admit DL does not hold a candle to NH in that regard. So again, it comes down to - who would I rather have as a JV partner? I think UA chose well in NH, and I think overall, the UA/NH JV beats out DL/KE handily if you just look at structural factors related to Japan and Korea's economic positions.
United is a double loser?
They knew they’d lose the daytime HND
Slot but the HA news is great for United from Guam
Sad they a US slot will likely go to a 737 on GUM-HND but I guess we’ll see
I get why HA gave it up
Surprised Delta didn't want to try for this route. It would have been a shoe-in to approve a third competitor in the market over adding another JV Oneworld flight
This slot pair opened up because Delta wasn't operating PDX-HND. They essentially forfeited it so DOT wasn't going to give it back to them for another route.
Delta used the A350 it could have used to start JFK-HND to start a second ATL-ICN on its own metal.
Given the poor YEN to USD exchange rate which makes the US expensive for Japanese, DL does not see value in adding another Tokyo route right now
And DL could have very likely won the route if it asked for it but they still have the largest foreign carrier presence at HND and are building ICN w/ their KE joint venture.
The value of the YEN most certainly decrease demand. Be interesting to see the flight loads of this route. I bet $100 they give up on it in less than 2 years. AA can’t afford losing routes with their debt and higher labor cost. AA is one act of god or global slow down away from chapter 11.
They conceded the PDX route, correct?
yes, Delta returned its PDX-HND route authority
Ok... but the terrible value of JPY should also increase demand from the US to Japan.
that is correct but there are fewer Americans that visit Japan than the other way around.
as US interest rates come back down, the situation will change.
Actions of central banks have a lot greater influence on air travel than alot of people realize
Shame they’re not using Miami! (Phoenix would’ve been acceptable too)
To answer Ben’s question — AAdvantage members that need to re-rqualufy conciergekey. American metal matters for CK evaluation.
If AA is significantly cheaper in paid J on this route then why wouldn’t someone fly AA? AA J soft and hard product certainly crosses the bar as being worthy of paying for at the right price.
@ Matthew -- American and Japan Airlines coordinate fares and share revenue as part of their joint venture, so it wouldn't really be in American's best interest to try to drive down prices in the market. But the bigger point is that having cheaper fares than competitors all while having a way higher cost structure isn't a good way to make money.
They don't really coordinate fares though. AA is often significantly cheaper than JL. Except if you want the AA code (loyalty points) on JL flights, that is often painfully expensive, and more so than JAL.
And to answer Ben's question on "who in their right mind would fly American when they could instead fly with All Nippon Airways or Japan Airlines, which offer an infinitely superior experience in all cabins?", Filipinos who look for the cheapest or most convenient option. And there are plenty in the tri-state area alone.
@ Mike O. -- Of course, plenty of people will take the cheapest option. But ultra long haul economy travelers looking for the cheapest fare also aren't doing much to help a carrier's bottom line and make a route profitable.
Ben, they upgrade on the app. or desktop when they can't (or must pay to) select a seat.
The schedule seems perfect for those connecting to and from MNL as JL and NHs schedule are simply out of whack for connections.