With United having significantly devalued MileagePlus miles, I think it’s only fair that I adjust my valuation of this currency. I’m coming to a strange conclusion — are United MileagePlus miles and Delta SkyMiles now worth roughly the same?
In this post:
Reducing my valuation of United MileagePlus miles
I publish my valuation of loyalty program points currencies, though I always acknowledge that this is subjective, and that there’s no right or wrong way to go about it. I try to be balanced in my valuation of various currencies, and also try to be conservative, so that people don’t hoard their points too much.
Over the past several weeks, we’ve seen United MileagePlus considerably devalue miles. MileagePlus has increased the cost of many long haul award tickets by 30%+, and this includes for award travel on United, as well as for award travel on partner airlines.
Before this devaluation, I valued MileagePlus miles at 1.3 cents each each. After this devaluation, I’m thinking that a fairer valuation is 1.1 cents per mile. Coincidentally, that’s also what I value Delta SkyMiles at. So, is that really fair — are United MileagePlus miles and Delta SkyMiles now equally valuable?
Delta SkyMiles vs. United MileagePlus miles
For years, Delta SkyMiles has been leading the way among the “big three” US carriers when it comes to making its mileage currency revenue-based, and eliminating value from aspirational redemptions.
So on the surface it might seem preposterous to value Delta SkyMiles and United MileagePlus miles equally. I mean, after all, you can still redeem 121,000 United MileagePlus miles for a one-way transatlantic Lufthansa first class ticket…
…while you’ll have to pay 375,000 Delta SkyMiles for a one-way transatlantic Virgin Atlantic business class ticket (I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry).
However, I do think valuing SkyMiles and MileagePlus miles the same isn’t unreasonable:
- Delta SkyMiles has the big advantage of letting members cash out their miles toward ticket costs at a reasonable rate
- United MileagePlus’ redemption rates are downright uncompetitive compared to what you’d pay through Air Canada Aeroplan and Avianca LifeMiles
As much as Delta SkyMiles lacks good value premium cabin and partner award redemptions, the program is the best when it comes to cashing out points toward the cost of a ticket:
- Those with an eligible Delta Amex Card can use the “Pay With Miles” feature to redeem miles for one cent each toward the cost of a Delta ticket, in increments of 5,000 miles
- Those with an eligible Delta Amex Card can use the “TakeOff 15” benefit, whereby they can get 15% off award tickets; since Delta’s redemptions are roughly revenue based (even not accounting for “Pay With Miles”), I find this feature to often get you 1.2-1.3 cents of value per Delta mile
- Delta SkyMiles is by far the best at honoring elite perks and even rewarding members when redeeming miles
United can’t really compete with Delta when it comes to revenue-based ways to redeem miles.
The other issue is the general lack of value that MileagePlus offers compared to competing Star Alliance programs. If you earn transferable points, it’s much easier to rack up both Air Canada Aeroplan points and Avianca LifeMiles than United MileagePlus miles.
I honestly can’t think of many situations where United’s award pricing is even remotely competitive to what these programs charge for awards, especially for premium cabin redemptions on partner airlines. For example, I’d say historically Star Alliance miles are most valuable for your run of the mill transatlantic business class awards.
A simple one-way transatlantic business class partner award (like from New York to Brussels on Brussels) now starts at 88,000 MileagePlus miles one-way, while the same award would start at 60,000 Aeroplan points or 63,000 LifeMiles. And those are only starting prices with MileagePlus, as they go up from there.
Obviously that’s just one example, but in the grand scheme of things, there are just so few situations where booking with MileagePlus is a better value than booking with another program. And as I analyze the relative value of these mileage currencies, I just can’t justify valuing MileagePlus miles at more than 1.1 cents.
Bottom line
With the latest devaluation to United MileagePlus miles, it’s only reasonable that I adjust my valuation of that points currency. I’m coming to the surprising conclusion that I think I value Delta SkyMiles and United MileagePlus miles roughly equally, at 1.1 cents each.
I’m not expecting others to have exactly the same valuations as me, though I’m curious how others feel about this, especially in the context of my overall valuation of various currencies.
While United’s partner and premium cabin redemption rates are still largely better than Delta’s, you can redeem Delta miles at a more attractive rate toward everyday flights. Furthermore, there are few situations where United’s partner redemption rates are competitive with what you could book through other programs where points are easier to rack up.
How much do you value United MileagePlus miles now? How do you feel about the relative value of Delta SkyMiles and United MileagePlus miles?
The MilagePlus has been going downhill for years. I've stayed loyal out of habit but there's really no reason to anymore. They've devalued the miles to an incredible degree.
It is time for blogs to compare the actual value based on redemption. Delta Skymiles are best redeemed for shorter cheaper flights like Florida to NYC which can be done for 10-15k and relative to the cash price that's a good deal.
I’m 360 delta and global services. I find both a joke. But loyalty is delta. And have 7 million flown miles between them. I have both cc, but won’t hardly use them. Better get points on other cards then choose
After the bottom started to fall out a week ago, I’ve made 2 reservations at saver level for great value. Got 5cpp for mid-July (MGA-BNA, UA metal), priced at $2057, for 40k+$78 rt, and 1.7cpp next year (PRG-VIE, and VIE-BUD) both for 6.5kon Austrian. Happy camper if I can keep getting those values.
In your article you wonder " are United MileagePlus miles and Delta SkyMiles now equally valuable?"
In light of what both airlines have done to their FF programs, don't you mean "equally valueless" ?
The quality of the food and service more than overcomes all of the complaints about devaluation.
I book flights from SFO to Bangkok often. It used to be pretty easy to get business class for 95,000 each way. Now those flights are 200,000 and even then the ticket is often a mix of business & economy. I have lot of points with them, and to me they are worth less than half of what they were.
I am starting to think that frequent flyer programs are more useful for winter domestic economy class tickets than anything else. Gone are the days of international business class. Soon, you will need a million miles for that and then don't earn many miles for every trip you make, domestic or international.
Yes, there's always plenty of saver economy award seats to Tulsa on a Tuesday night in the middle of winter, on one of their regional jets!
I mostly redeem delta for domestic now days so this assessment is on the right track.
UA has simply shifted to "actually" rewarding loyalty. There's expanded award availability for elite status holders, which is achieved by either spending lots of money with the airline or through their cobranded credit card. Giving away cheap saver awards to people who never fly United but credit in a bunch of Chase UR points really doesn't do much for the airline, it just offers a backdoor to get cheap tickets to those who have no...
UA has simply shifted to "actually" rewarding loyalty. There's expanded award availability for elite status holders, which is achieved by either spending lots of money with the airline or through their cobranded credit card. Giving away cheap saver awards to people who never fly United but credit in a bunch of Chase UR points really doesn't do much for the airline, it just offers a backdoor to get cheap tickets to those who have no loyalty to United (which I suppose is the entire point of the complaint). If you were to ask GS / 1K / Plat status holders (you know, the the UA passengers who are actually loyal to United), they have plenty of miles and probably plenty more incremental Chase UR points, and now there's more J award availability reserved for them rather than for general UA flyers. It's a win for actual UA loyalists, and a loss for everyone else, just like the seat selection fees on BA and now AF / KLM J seats
I'm not sure that's true. I'm a platinum member, and whether I log in or not, I get the same options. Occasionally, I agree I do see some awards only when I log in (and those are flagged as available only to members), but that's pretty rare. It seems to me that by far, the vast majority of award space is available regardless of status. Or maybe I'm not high enough on the status ladder?
...I'm not sure that's true. I'm a platinum member, and whether I log in or not, I get the same options. Occasionally, I agree I do see some awards only when I log in (and those are flagged as available only to members), but that's pretty rare. It seems to me that by far, the vast majority of award space is available regardless of status. Or maybe I'm not high enough on the status ladder?
I'd love for what you say to be true, since that would help me, but it doesn't seem to be the case.
Yeah that benefit is purely theoretical. For business class, I can’t remember the last time I saw improved availability as an elite member (I’m Platinum). So that’s not what’s happening here, it’s just as much a devaluation for elite members as it is for everyone else.
Not sure what you're talking about. I'm 1K and there's no good award availability on United (at least at any times I actually want to use points, as a person with a normal job and not a points blogger -- the only people who ever see these mythical "saver" awards, since they can leave on a Wednesday in the middle of September for wherever).
Maybe I’m doing something wrong, but I have yet to find a single Aeroplan redemption at rates lower than MileagePlus that didn’t also charge astronomical fees. For example, I just ran a simple IAD-FRA for mid-August and the cheapest redemption in Y was 113,600 Aeroplan points PLUS C$1691.20. To book on all points would come in at 213,710 points. And this is with connections in YYZ…the same itinerary on UA can be had for 79,900....
Maybe I’m doing something wrong, but I have yet to find a single Aeroplan redemption at rates lower than MileagePlus that didn’t also charge astronomical fees. For example, I just ran a simple IAD-FRA for mid-August and the cheapest redemption in Y was 113,600 Aeroplan points PLUS C$1691.20. To book on all points would come in at 213,710 points. And this is with connections in YYZ…the same itinerary on UA can be had for 79,900. If someone can tell me if I’m doing something wrong, I’d appreciate it. Similarly, it’s very rare that DL beats out UA for redemptions, but it is more common, especially for domestic flights, as others have noted.
You need to look for saver awards, not dynamic ones that you are getting
Okay, then why don't you find so-called saver awards and show that AC is cheaper than UA on partner metal. I did it extensively and found nothing.
Either do it and demonstrate your claim, or stop trying to make it because it is bogus.
What are you even talking about man
An example a rule does not make. I gave several just the other day that contradict that case...
LOL, Lucky literally states an example in his blog post
What you’re finding likely includes mostly, if not entirely, AC metal. Partner space will be cheaper.
So are UA partner awards...
It’s as easy to find as the Hilton upgrades you talk about getting every stay.
Talk is cheap and that is all those claiming the better 'value' of booking through AC have done...talk, talk, talk.
Do searches for free and then present your case, just like I have presented my case with photos of the insides of Hilton suite upgrades.
Either that or can it.
I am currently sitting on a beach in Italy. Booked Lufthansa first class through AC from Chicago, through Munich for 100k points and $90 in taxes and fees. Got the Porsche airport transfer and all. Flights just didn’t pop up with points until the day before I left. Done it enough times I trust the process that something will show up.
I got a non stop business from ATL to Seoul for 120,000 Delta. for next month Now I booked it the day it was available, last year, but three cents per mile is exceptional for Delta. I then paid cash for the return, but THAT is what the flight was worth to me. yes, That 120K price was only 2 or 3 times in that week, and on KAL, and Delta charged about 300,000 for Delta alternatives with connections. Maybe I was superlucky?
DL hasn't yet harmonized partner metal awards with DL metal awards (as they have in the US market).
Originating outside the US or Canada is now the general tactic for optimizing SkyMiles redemptions (though for EU to US awards, DL will charge similar YQ surcharges as Flying Blue), likely because those markets haven't seen the level of miles being given out that we see in the US.
For what it’s worth, I just booked two J tickets for the Cape Town to Washington Dulles nonstop on United metal in December for 109,600 Mileage Plus Miles each. I don’t think that’s too terrible value…
I wonder where the tipping point lies for mile/points devaluation. At some point the average consumer, bank, etc. who wants and pays for those miles (either directly or indirectly) today will stop doing so if redemptions are uneconomical (like those ludicrous 400k mile one ways United offers) or simply impossible. It seems we've been marching in this direction for a while now but haven't quite reached it yet. Thoughts?
I agree to an extent, but I also think the average consumer doesn't understand how the maximize these miles anyway. I would guess that many people never progress past the miles accumulation stage of understanding points, and end up redeeming them at non-saver rates.
The race to the bottom takes a major step forward. Good analysis and agree at valuation. I've started to diversify into cash only cards, because that's clearly the future.
They should change the name to Milageminus
United allows cobrand cardholders to spend miles to offset cash ticket costs (post purchase) at a rate of 1 cpm. Only applies to the fare and not the taxes, but as these are cash tickets, they at least earn miles + status credit.
https://choices.unitedmileageplus.com/airfare
Chase has a pay yourself back option with the Aeroplan card, I wonder if they could do that with United as well. Chase probably funds it by buying fewer points from Aeroplan.
The united devaluation sucks, but hopefully they keep reasonable redemptions available on their own metal. Maybe they are hoping by setting the pqp requirement high, people will put spend on their quest card to generate pqps.
American miles are awesome. I have...
Chase has a pay yourself back option with the Aeroplan card, I wonder if they could do that with United as well. Chase probably funds it by buying fewer points from Aeroplan.
The united devaluation sucks, but hopefully they keep reasonable redemptions available on their own metal. Maybe they are hoping by setting the pqp requirement high, people will put spend on their quest card to generate pqps.
American miles are awesome. I have some great web special redemptions from them which makes sense to play the loyalty points game. 4x Las to east coast seats for $23k each, what inflation? Economy the other way for 8,000 points.
Someone please explain to me, as a chase Sapphire reserve holder why anything less than 1.5cpm makes sense to redeem when I can get this booking with Chase. Yes then I'm using a TA but I alsi get the benefits of a cash ticket.
There are times when a United award price is still worth more than 1.5 cents per mile as compared with the cash price of a refundable ticket (sticking with refundable tickets negates a lot of the issues with using an OTA if you have to cancel the ticket).
If you're chasing status then the bar might need to be higher than 1.5 cents per mile since you get PQP based on the cash price of the ticket, not the actual Chase points you needed to pay.
You still need to factor in that using a CSR gives you PQFs and PQDs.
In the aggregate CSR will give you more value and far less stress in the long-run compared to chasing down functionally zero availability these days.
1) It's time for blogs to start studying changes to strategies, like paying for international flights with cash and redeeming for domestic. As NK3 points out, many airlines are now allowing elite earnings on award tickets. Pair that with various discounts, ability to upgrade them, etc, this can make a lot of sense. With international award availability often limited, maybe a $3K or $4K round trip international business cash booking should be considered for those...
1) It's time for blogs to start studying changes to strategies, like paying for international flights with cash and redeeming for domestic. As NK3 points out, many airlines are now allowing elite earnings on award tickets. Pair that with various discounts, ability to upgrade them, etc, this can make a lot of sense. With international award availability often limited, maybe a $3K or $4K round trip international business cash booking should be considered for those that can afford it.
2) Though Delta is appropriately getting some kudos here, I still note the lack of any real flash sale this year. That is how I have historically gotten real strong value out of SkyMiles for international J. I liked them because they rewarded the most engaged Delta members (you have to know about them, and book quick). Dead silent on that front in 2023.
The answer is easy.
A) CSR 1.5 cent redemption
B) Cash back into brokerage
Airlines have shown they don't give a rats ass about "loyalty". The only thing you can do as a customer is show them the same courtesy.
@Anthony There were at least two meaningful SkyMiles flash sales in 2023 that I'm aware of. One was US-Japan at 60k round trip in February and the current one (starting this past Friday) is US-New Zealand at 44k or 50k round trip. Of course both are economy class, unannounced, random, and first-come-first-serve, but for folks who are destination-focused (i.e. don't care about biz class) and flexible in travel dates, visa situation, etc., these flash sales...
@Anthony There were at least two meaningful SkyMiles flash sales in 2023 that I'm aware of. One was US-Japan at 60k round trip in February and the current one (starting this past Friday) is US-New Zealand at 44k or 50k round trip. Of course both are economy class, unannounced, random, and first-come-first-serve, but for folks who are destination-focused (i.e. don't care about biz class) and flexible in travel dates, visa situation, etc., these flash sales allow SkyMiles members to redeem at maximal values. No comments on biz class flash sales, but in fairness to Delta, just want point out that SkyMiles flash sales are out there for plebeian travelers.
One of the most undervalued aspects of SkyMiles for me is earning MQMs and MQDs on award tickets. I now use miles to pay for most domestic flights. With the 15% discount, I have made a couple dozen award bookings this year so far, always ranging from 1.5-2.0+ cpm. It helps that my home airport (SEA) tends to have better Delta domestic redemptions.
I also value the 2500 mile late baggage benefit with Delta. I...
One of the most undervalued aspects of SkyMiles for me is earning MQMs and MQDs on award tickets. I now use miles to pay for most domestic flights. With the 15% discount, I have made a couple dozen award bookings this year so far, always ranging from 1.5-2.0+ cpm. It helps that my home airport (SEA) tends to have better Delta domestic redemptions.
I also value the 2500 mile late baggage benefit with Delta. I have received it greater than 50% of the time for the past few years. So I can affectively factor in another 1250 mile discount on award tickets. I collect other miles for international premium cabin awards, but SkyMiles is the best option for my everyday domestic flights.
I almost feel like we’re at a point where there have to be separate domestic and international valuations for the big 3. For DL I’d argue they’re only worth about 0.6 for international awards but they’re probably worth 1.5 for domestic awards. UA is now probably worth about 1.0 for international and 1.3 for domestic.
So maybe 1.1 is fair for UA overall but DL is probably really about 0.9 if you don’t live near a hub and use for domestic flights.
I still give united the edge over delta. Comparing apples to apples with united metal using united miles to delta metal using skymiles, you can still get relative biz class bargains of europe and Asia destinations for 80-90k where as delta is always 300k+
Even though I am a Delta loyalist, I was going to write in and defend United here because at the end of the day, I thought you could reliably get much cheaper redemptions (say in the 100K-150K range to Europe) even post devaluation. But a quick search even finds that is hard - EWR to Europe late fall seems to be pricing 250-300K one way on United retail in late September (my favorite time to...
Even though I am a Delta loyalist, I was going to write in and defend United here because at the end of the day, I thought you could reliably get much cheaper redemptions (say in the 100K-150K range to Europe) even post devaluation. But a quick search even finds that is hard - EWR to Europe late fall seems to be pricing 250-300K one way on United retail in late September (my favorite time to fly to Europe). That is not far off from Delta's normal pricing (and some cases more expensive than Delta's pricing), and as you point out, Delta is much better domestically in terms of reward pricing.
You are spot on which is not surprising as this blog has a very sensible customer oriented point of view with a large touch of AV geekness. Another great post.
I find that on a typical domestic economy fair, you can get 1.2-1.3 cpp with Delta Skymiles. Comfort and first are never as good of a redemption value. With the 15% discount it's more like 1.4-1.5. The problem is that Delta has killed all aspirational redemptions. I feel like United is terrible for domestic redemptions but international can have okay value. Delta is rarely worthwhile for me internationally these days.
I am seeing UA domestic coach redemptions at ~0.8 cents/mile right now. Seems like there is no floor for how bad they can get and far worse than skypesos.
Additionally, my calculus of AA miles is now roughly equivalent to UA and DL, just slightly over 1 cent per mile. Pathetic, given how few decent redemptions are available in the current climate in any of these currencies even at that price.
No way that AA are in the same category as UA/DL. While availability on their own metal sucks, their standard rates on partner award pricing is still quite reasonable, and with partners like Qatar and JAL, there are often opportunities to find great business class seats at good rates. And variable pricing on their own metal cuts both ways… while it means most pricing is higher than it used to be, I’ve been able to...
No way that AA are in the same category as UA/DL. While availability on their own metal sucks, their standard rates on partner award pricing is still quite reasonable, and with partners like Qatar and JAL, there are often opportunities to find great business class seats at good rates. And variable pricing on their own metal cuts both ways… while it means most pricing is higher than it used to be, I’ve been able to get transcon business class on AA/B6 at 50-60k pretty regularly, even cheaper for less desirable times. That price used to seem high, but compare it to UA/DL pricing (and the revenue price of the tickets) and there’s still plenty of value to be extracted out of AAdvantage. UA/DL by contrast, there’s really no opportunity to find reasonable value.
@Darin - I stated “my calculus!” YMMV, right? I fly for business to Europe, do not use partners and pretty much fly AA and DL metal. And I don’t fly B6!
the corollary is 1 Chase point is now worth 1 Hyatt point
While there's the occasional decent redemption, on average UA miles are overall worth less than 1 cpp.
Would be great to see you stop touting the UA Chase cards to protest the serial devaluation of what was once a great program.
“ Would be great to see you stop touting the UA Chase cards to protest the serial devaluation of what was once a great program.”
I’m sure Ben might be interested to do that were you to being paying him to replace the significant income.
I'm with you Ben. There used to be a time, not too long ago, when I would have taken a United mile over virtually any other non-transferrable currency. Depressing how far they've fallen and how fast.