Are Transferable Points Currencies Nearing A Negative Inflection Point?

I don’t want to be an alarmist, but am I the only one who thinks we might be at a point where transferable points currencies are starting to change for the worse?

Why transferable points could become less valuable

For those looking to earn travel rewards with credit cards, it generally makes the most sense to collect transferable points currencies, which can efficiently be transfered to a variety of airline and hotel partners. This gives you the most flexibility, since you don’t have to commit to any one currency, and it also shields you as much as possible from any program specific devaluations.

The transfer ratios when moving points from transferable points currencies to travel partners varies, given that not all rewards currencies have the same value. The most common ratio is 1:1, but that’s not consistently the case. Keep in mind this is also because credit card companies pay different amounts for different points currencies.

Broadly speaking, transferable points typically transfer to travel partners at a ratio of 1:1, or sometimes even more. There are of course exceptions, and not all rewards currencies are created equal. It seems that many transferable points currencies have wanted to maintain a 1:1 transfer ratio as one of their main selling points. However, in recent times, we’re starting to see a reverse of that trend:

• Recently, we saw most major transferable points currencies devalue Emirates Skywards transfer ratios, and Chase Ultimate Rewards removed Emirates Skywards as a transfer partner (presumably because it wants to maintain a 1:1 ratio with all partners)
• As flagged by Danny the Deal Guru, as of March 1, 2026, the Amex Membership Rewards to Cathay Pacific Asia Miles transfer ratio will be devalued from 1:1 to 5:4, so this wasn’t just an isolated incident specific to one partner

As of now this isn’t a widespread situation, but I can see this becoming a more common problem, because once the practice is normalized, it’s much more likely to spread. Let me explain…

Factors that could drive this change to points currencies

I have no inside information here, but I fear that this could be the start of a bigger trend, and that we’ll soon see transfer ratios with these programs being all over the place. As I view it, this comes down to two different factors.

For one, we’re increasingly seeing (particularly airline) loyalty programs get savvier when it comes to how they’re monetized. Partner award availability is becoming increasingly rare, as airlines want to focus exclusively on their own programs, and monetize them efficiently. For those programs that partner with transferable points currencies, it also seems to me like many of those programs may want more money, when it comes time to renew their contracts.

Ultimately if a loyalty program wants more money from one of the credit card companies, either the credit card company has to eat that extra cost, or that has to be passed on to consumers, in the form of a worse transfer ratio.

At the same time that all of this is happening, it also seems that credit card companies are trying to limit their costs associated with their own points currencies:

• We’ve seen Amex add restrictions to its “Pay With Points” option for its most premium cards, essentially limiting the “cash out” value of those rewards toward flights
• We’ve seen Chase get rid of 1.5 cents per point redemptions for virtually any travel purchase on its most premium cards
• With Citi, you can’t even cash out points anymore for 1.0 cents each for most of the rewards cards earning ThankYou points

So when you combine airline loyalty programs wanting more money for their transferable points, with credit card companies trying to limit their costs of redemptions, it sure seems to me like this might (unfortunately) be the start of a bigger trend.

Of course that would be frustrating. At the same time, we can earn more points from credit cards than ever before, between sign-up bonus and spending multipliers, so it’s not like consumers are left without choice, or decent redemption options. Understandably, card issuers don’t want to change their bonus multipliers to essentially recalibrate things, so the next best option is to just make each point worth a bit less.

We’ll see how this all plays out, and I hate to make predictions like this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of years from now, transfer ratios are just all over the place, with 1:1 no longer being the standard.

Bottom line

It definitely seems like transferable points currencies are going to be facing some cost pressure in the near future. It feels like airline loyalty programs want more money from partners for their points, while credit card companies are also trying to limit their costs on redemptions. That’s a combination that seems like it can only go in one direction.

I don’t want to predict bad news here, or to extrapolate something that isn’t there. However, I think we’ve gone from “one-off” territory (with the Emirates Skywards transfer ratio being devalued), to maybe the start of something bigger. We’ll see how this all plays out, though I’ve gotten my prediction in…

Do you think we’re at an inflection point with transferable points currencies, or am I reading too much into this?