Earlier, I posed the question of whether Gulf carriers will ever make a full recovery from the current conflict in the Middle East, and if so, how long it will take. I’ve also addressed the topic of what to do if you have a ticket booked on a Gulf carrier, given all the uncertainty. In…
Continue reading: Would You Fly Through Middle East Hubs Like Dubai Or Doha Right Now? I’m Torn…
Share your questions, experiences, and thoughts below.
Matthew wants to bring his 2 kids to Syria to teach them a lesson.
You'll do fine.
Just flew to and from South Asia via AUH last week, the whole experience was very anticlimactic tbh. AUH was a bit more empty than I've seen in the past but also not peak COVID level. Qatar is probably more likely to have schedule disruption given that they are slightly closer to Iran than UAE so traffic has been slower to resume, but if the flight makes sense I would go for it.
We had 12h on the way back and went to Abu Dhabi for the day; didn't see any sign of attack, the streets were quiet but no panic. Id' say if you stay clear of industrial zones you'll be fine
Worst case scenario if you end up stuck in Qatar, you can also cross by land into KSA and fly from Jeddah, which hasn't been affected at all. A bit of a pain but that's worst case scenario
We've been to Dubai last week ( from Europe ) we stayed 10 days , I never felt unsafe , we didn't get lucky with the weather tough , almost every day rain
Went to Syria last year on vacation and had a great time. So much history to see!
I, too, saw that Qatar dumped a ton of award capacity and put a flight on hold using AA miles. About 5 hours later, AA emailed me saying my flight had changed and I needed to call them. I took that as my sign that this isn't going to work and let the hold expire instead... all that to say the awards you're seeing may not be real.
TBH, flying ME3 especially via AUH, I'm much more afraid of going to war with Etihad customer service than shots from Iran.
They are notoriously useless.
Sure if nothing happens to your flight, your good. But if those pesky EY people starts messing with your flight in transit, you'll regret it.
EY customer service can do more damage to you than Iran.
Iran has, I believe for the most part, wound down their attacks on Qatar. While that may reduce disruptions, I’m still avoiding the region because I do not need to be stuck in a layover airport because of an emergency situation. Here’s how my calculus works:
1. Turkish Airlines is among the least likely to experience disruption right now. Oil supply from Azerbaijan is steady (incl. jet fuel) and flight path goes North over Iran with GPS spoofing in action
2. Japanese airlines are on borrowed time as Japan maintains considerable petroleum reserve which may include jet fuel. They’ll be ok for next month or 2, maybe not beyond that. Korean airlines not even worth considering
3. Cathay Pacific has enough oil from mainland China for some time, and China will surely keep getting oil from Alaska & Russia alike, maybe enough to minimise disruption
4. Singapore Airlines is a refining hub reliant on Gulf oil. I’m actually not sure how long their supplies may last, but they should have alternative crude sources notably Malaysia and Brunei.
EU airlines may be good for one-stop from Miami, but some airlines have expressed concern about jet fuel supplies from SE Asia. It shouldn’t be this annoying and complex, but hey, we try to be prepared
Forgot one detail, AA needed me to call them because they were unable to rebook me. Unclear how the Qatar flight changed, but apparently it was enough that I needed to pick another flight.
My brother was supposed to fly via Dubai 3 weeks ago. He got stuck in Vietnam for an extra week, then spent 13 hours in DXB sitting on the floor with 1500 other pax or running to the basement while an F16 shot down a drone outside the windows of Terminal B.
Not what I’d call a dream trip….
I'd say go for it. I'm flying in and out of Jordan next month and not worried about it at all. Take advantage of the open award space but be flexible in case one or more flights get canceled. Have easily cancelable backups in place.
Active shooter training is applicable.
Terminal B or high school, it's the same principle.
The only difference is active shooter occurs more often than drones.
Fly to Southern South America. Then on to Australia or New Zealand and then to Thailand. Bypass the Mid East entirely.
Yeah, Etihad from London to Manila is even less than $1450 on biz until June. Really tempting.
I see Syria as a much much higher risk than Middle East.
Anywhere that Israel targets is a very risky place.
I'm much more afraid of being collateral damage from those deadly and precise munitions. You're more likely to get killed by Jericho III than cheap Iranian drones.
As as long as Israel is not aiming at UAE or Qatar, you should be very safe.
Right now - as in this month - no. Too many flights are still being cancelled with not enough service resuming to provide back up alternatives. My colleague's flight on EK 10 days from now has already been cancelled. It's just not worth the headache.
Depends on how you define the consequences of shut down.
DC beltway sniper were active for few weeks.
Jan 6, while not a week, took over the capital.
It's a matter of time when you get the firepower of LV shooter, stealth of beltway, and organized like Jan 6.
That dear Ronnie is true fear.
I have a sibling and their family in the UAE and they have travelled to and fro a few times over the past month... If things were truly bad, I'd imagine they would leave the country with the kids.
10 years ago? Sure. With a son? Wild horses shouldn’t be able to drag you.
What would people say? “
I'd do it. Just with the expectation that if you get stuck, you're on the hook financially for hotel stays, ect.
My issue with booking tickets through the big ME hubs right now is that there is a huge risk of flights getting cancelled and diverted last minute, which may cause you to end up in an unintended destination. My question to you Ben is how badly do you need to end up in Thailand, and how badly do you need to get home on the day you are scheduled to? Are your pre-booked expenses in Thailand refundable (or can they be cancelled for a small fee)? If you absolutely need to get to Thailand on a certain date, I would recommend it being better for you to book away from the ME3. I don't think safety is really a big issue. The flight schedule reliability is a big one for me.
I had family members flying the ME3 the day that the war started. My aunt ended up stuck in Cairo for 3 days (until I got her another ticket out of there), while my uncle ended up on a 15 hour flight to nowhere, and my father ended up in Italy (on a flight between US and DOH). I had to travel to the Indian Subcontinent a couple weeks ago. Ended up rebooking on Turkish because I had to be back home by a specific date.
Safety wise I wouldn't blink an eye and I'd be happy to travel. I'm however concerned about operational reliability, though this varies by the airline. Emirates seems to be treating its passengers well and doesn't have an issue rebooking on OAL if needed so I'd be happy to book with them. Etihad on the other hand won't see my business for years as they basically told customers "though luck" and left them stranded all over the planet.
Think about your husband and children if you ever get stuck there, not to mention one in million chance that your aircraft is shot down by mistake or intentionally...
The only reason I book this flight would be the expectation that qr would book me in a different airline before my departure but that is probably not happening given how stingy qr is
As long as Champagne keeps flowing.
You can keep Ben in any ME3 lounge or widebodies.
If you the U.S. Government is not allowing its employees to travel on those airlines then you have your answer.
QR is "unconfirming" and "unticketing" these awards. Happened to me just today. Book at your own risk!
That's what I keep warning people for years about ME3.
Glad to hear EK is taking more responsibility, as their customer service is the better one among ME3.
EY, pathetic trash as always.
Dear Leader says the war will be over in another 2 weeks.
What's to worry about?
It's not even close to one in a million.
And just to remind the last time an airliner was shot down in that area was back in the 80s.
ICYMI, it was an Iran airliner who got shot down by a US warship.
The warship captain even got a medal for it.
It's never the cheap and crude munitions that I'm afraid of.
It's always those deadly and high precision warheads strike with either bad intel, human error, or as collateral damage.
He was supposed to end Ukraine battle in under 24 hours since last year.
What's to worry about?
I commented on the other post, but- today I booked LHR/SIN via AUH in mid-June, a very good deal. Figure the risk of actual harm is low, and the main risk is operational disruption, assuming the conflict isn't over by then.
I'm travelling solo, for leisure, and I have a fair bit of flexibility so getting stranded for a day or two won't be a huge embuggerance.
Opinions have varied amongst my friends. Some think I'm utterly mad, some are jealous I bagged such a bargain. It's definitely a bit of a gamble.
Depending on what happened. It might not just be a day or two.
And that will be out of your pocket as insurance will unlikely cover this.
And this risk is not low at all.
With 2 sons - toddler & infant - + a husband, this is a question I would not be even asking myself; maybe as a single person with zero responsibilities…
There are dozens of other routes to get there? Why taking any risks with the current situation?
You answered your question in the article. There are direct flight from Europe like Thai airways Klm air france, Eva etc whose are safe and do not touch the region
Do it Lucky. It's not like you don't know what to do if there are delays and/or cancellations.
What amuses me about this overall situation is that SFO -> DOH on QR *still* doesn't have business/first class availability. I'd have to take BA through LHR to get there in those classes.
That's the surest sign I'll never find award availability on this route. Even war doesn't release seats.
I don't know what is deadlier.
The actual risk of flying through middle east. Or the perceived risk people believe for flying through the middle east.
Abu Dhabi yes. DXB, likely yes. Doha, no. MCT -- definitely. Riyadh or Jedda, no.
But I wouldn't take a time critical trip through AUH or DXB either. The real risk is being stuck there for 2-3 days.
It's more than stupid to take that risk. What's the reward on the upside? Being in a first-class cabin all by yourself and having the full attention of the flight attendants? I've been in that situation a number of times, and honestly, I didn't even enjoy being the only passenger in the cabin.
UAE....not a snowball's chance in hell.
Doha...sure, once things settle.
Saudi...sure, once things settle.
Oman...yes
Either you're lying or your family comes from a war zone where this is normal, you're there right now and obviously cannot post the truth, or you're a paid UAE shill.
I came from the UAE, no one is sitting there pretending life is normal and not genuinely worried about the situation.
Again another UAE shill, bot, or someone being held at gun point by the UAE authorities too afraid to tell the truth.
I came from the UAE and the situation is not good. Literally people can go out and see jets and drones flying over head on their way to their intended target. No fucking way I am going back or at least not any time soon. It's all left a sour taste especially knowing that people can't say anything while there and can only talk about the situation after they left
I’d take Condor to BKK via FRA. Or Japan Airlines or Singapore Airlines via Asia. Who knows when this illegal war will wrap up.
When was your trip scheduled for? I have a QR flight booked through AS for this summer. Luckily, not cancelled…yet.
Arabian desert turning green… if only there was a sign that things were not normal…
I wonder why you would be so interested in snagging such award space. It's not like you haven't made similar trips 100 times, so it's not as if it would be a life-changing experience for you. We had EY and QR First via Abu Dhabi and Doha booked for a trip to Europe in a few weeks, and there is no way in hell we were going to take those flights. Yeah, we'll have to settle for Polaris via LHR instead, but we will save a boatload of time and can be fairly confident that we will arrive on the date scheduled.
I like Ben. I want him to keep doing what he does. I wouldn’t recommend Ben go anytime soon. Stick around Ben. We need you bud!
Just got to Japan after spending a couple weeks in Vietnam and here’s a little different aspect of the situation. The aviation fuel shortage led to planning of the parking of a lot of the Vietnam airways fleet. This led to a lot of rumors like that all flights to Japan were going to be suspended after April 1. Didn’t happen but I know there are also issues in Thailand that will persist after fighting stops.
And that neither the airlines nor insurance would cover hotels, re-routings, etc.
You should book in the hope that very soon the evil fanatical regime has been overthrown by the population with the leaders arrested and thrown in jail for crimes against humanity, and this 'special opperation' is ended.
The rest of the world would support the local population to overthrow the tyrannical dictator.
You could even join in yourself and support your fellow contrymen- isn't this exactly what the second amendment is for?
Right now, no.
Once there's a real ceasefire or end to hostilities that Iran legitimately agrees to (instead of Trump or Netanyahu just lying and saying that there's a ceasefire), then I would.
In fact, I'm looking forward to whatever crazy deals Emirates and Qatar are sure to offer, once they have their networks up and rebuilt
You do you but I'd do it. If some less-enlightened friends and family are overly concerned without justification, that's on them not you. If you like you could present it as an adventure.
There is no need for the added stress and risk. Especially if you can avoid it. Those nice J and F seats will still be there in the future.
If you can book all of the travel on a single ticket and are flexible enough with your schedule to handle possible delays or cancelations, then why not?
If you have to book multiple tickets and might end up as a no-show in the event of delays or cancelations, then why take the risk?
Nope - skip the Middle East right now. It's not worth it. Even if the risk is 1/1,000,000... just fly the over the Pacific to get there.
I'd skip it for now. If it goes smoothly great, but who needs the worry of the uncertainty of amissed connection and being stuck there for possibly days. So many flights still being cancelled. If it's not safe enough for European airlines to fly to UAE and Doha then it's also not safe enough for the home airlines. But they keep flying because of political pressure to make it seem like it's business as usual.
It’s a bigger safety risk for you to be driving on South Florida roads every day rather than one transit through the Middle East. You should do it. Likely worst case you get stuck in Doha for a few days and have to try new luxury hotels.
I think you would probably safe, but I wouldn’t if only due to the possibility of getting stuck there with limited (and likely expensive) options of leaving if something were to happen.
That said the US military is apparently moving forces to hotels in the region because the bases there are not able to keep everyone safe from air attacks at current staffing levels, in violation of the rules of war. They probably aren’t putting them up at the hotels you would stay at, but still that does increase the risk of something happening in civilian areas.
Yeah the biggest risk is operational reliability. Ben is very well equipped to handle that, but even his skills might not be enough if airspace shuts down or something else major goes down.
It has been clear for some time that Ben is in the upper class of people who don't need to worry about the problems of the lesser class. We should no longer think of this blog as somewhere for the everyday people
situation in the ME is an absolute mess and i have no expectation that it'll resolve soon (these clowns will probably make it worse) but that said - how many commercial planes have been attacked there? how many folks have been injured in transit in Doha? even with all of the escalating chaos, i'd still probably just fly it, if i'm being honest. sucks that this is an analysis that we have to do now, though.
If you fly premium cabin on Virgin Atlantic, you are in upper class.
So what problems are you trying to make a point?
Global hunger?
World peace?
That is one of my biggest fear.
Not the damage or injuries that is reported.
It's the ones that isn't reported. The cover up made by each and all of the governments.
As someone who used to have season tickets to the Arsht Center in Miami, but lives in Fort Lauderdale, I gave them up. For such a short run the number of horrible accidents that I witnessed as a regular occurence was astounding. The number of crazy drivers in South Florida (particularly Miami) was absolutely insane. In Miami, honking doesn’t work. If they don’t get a sufficient number of honks, the don’t feel they are doing it right
I would be less concerned about the safety aspect and more concerned about the fact that all of the ME3 carriers appear to be:
a) making refunds difficult , or taking weeks to process them
b) not allowing flexible booking changes until right before flights
If I could book knowing if things changed and I could hit the refund button in the app like UA/DL/AA and have it hit my card in a day or two then I would have no issue booking EK/QR/EY
True. At this stage of your life, perhaps best not to intentionally fly close to the sun.
Why not ask your husband, while looking at both of your kids and deeply considering your life choices, because this is actually real?
Ben, I know the story you want to write. But it doesn't need to be written. Go back when things settle down, not now.
As tempting it is to fly Qatar Air, I would avoid it. There are plenty of other neat possibilities, like the new Thai Business, SQ ect
I didn't fly with them in the first place. Why support theocratic absolute monarchies that have been credibly accused of sponsoring international terrorism? Then there's the fanatical anti-gay laws. Stop giving your money to people who fcking hate you.
Actually there was that Ukrainian airliner the Iranians shot down a few years ago, and the Russians downed that Azerbaijani jet not long ago so…
I just booked a trip to Moscow from Colombo with a four day stay Dubai.
I’m most worried about being heckled again by the fsb. Handing over my phones, iPad, wallet etc.
I’d avoid the Middle East. Highly doubtful that the situation will be any less volatile in a few weeks from now. Even by orange head’s own assertion, this will go on for another 2-3 weeks.
Ask self: Do you feel confident in Our Supreme Leader? Do you believe he is sane and can be expected not to escalate this war on a whim? Then go. If you have doubts find other routes.
I unfortunately don’t see any business class award availability on Qatar Airways on American Airlines site. Could you share where you see it?
Our government has the gulf states rated as "Do not travel" which means no insurance cover. That makes it a hard no from me.
Given that the US navy has a history of shooting down civilian airliners, I wouldn’t chance it.
You might have a discussion about suicide with St Peter at the pearly gates…..
flying into a warzone is an obvious stupidity
comparing it to driving a car totally misses the point
flying with a gulf airline is a Darwin award nominee
I have a reservation to Australia with departure date in mid-June on Qatar Airways. I got an email notification on 1 April for cancellation of both flights.
If you book QR and things mess up, can't you just get them to rebook you on some other airline (like CX, who doesn't have award seats)?
Stopped flying through Dubai and Abu Dhabi after they started letting genocidal Israelis fly through their airports.
FWIW, A friend was in the same situation as you.
Family of 3 booked a flight from NYC to Thailand many months ago with a connection in Abu Dhabi. They were worried about getting cancelled, getting stuck etc but figured if the airline did not cancel the flight then they would take the flight. They flew out last week. Said they had a long delay in Abu Dhabi but otherwise continued on to Thailand with no issue.
""....plus there’s a chance of getting stuck somewhere, if the situation escalates...""
IN MY THINKING THIS IS THE BIGGEST RISK THAT I WISH TO AVOID AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE CANCELED 4 PENDING ITINERARIES ON EK VIA DXB. IT IS ONE THING TO ENTER AND EXIT DXB SAFELY - BUT IF THINGS ESCALATE....YOU ARE STUCK.
Exactly this.
This is the real risk of flying ME3 right now.
Their customer service sucks.
And remember EY is the most pathetic.
Don't let cheap prices fool you. Their support is worse than LCC.
@ADT-PHL
Geography is something you never understand and always failed since 2nd grade?
Why don't you include Russian down a Korean Air jet too.
Some powerless department that have a single scripted response to everything.
"NO"
The only thing they can't no and destroy you is when your journey goes exatcly the way you booked.
And remember regardless who causes the issue, it's ALWAYS your mistake of booking with them.
Expect to hear "NO".
I got my Emirates refund in 3 business days actually. I found it quite easy and uneventful.
Does the country your presently in and typed message from allow "genocidal israelis"? Only possible from few countries including Iran
Ben, I have QR flights via DOH in May but weeks ago also booked the same itinerary on TG via BKK. My fear is bing stuck in DOH after a strike on the desal plants. I'll fly QR is the US has stopped attacking Iran, otrherwise TG.
Dear Benjamin,
I usually only make comments when its useful, important and can make a difference in a positive way.
In this case, I feel that it's my duty and obligation to You and to all the OMAAT community.
Short answer: Don´t fly to a ME hub, I love Qatar Airways, their personal and the people of Qatar, but for now and next six months this is not an option.
The fact that You are considering this reflects lack of judgment and lack of understanding the severity of the situation. I do understand You because You don't follow the events in other places and USA media does not reflect that reality.
I did notice that You never cover in deph this situation, and you distract your blog with a lot nonsense, when what was happening in the Middle East with the aviation industries was the biggest and most important news of the year.
In case you haven't notice, ME3 sell and allow booking for flights that they know they will not flight. Havent You notice the constant cancellation of flights of QR from MIA ??
from IAH?? from LAX?? Did you know QR park their aircraft in Spain ??
Havent You notice that Dubai tries everything to show a false sense of normality??
Hotels are 70% off on most cases??
You are a father and have two sons, You need to be a father and not a teenager.
I was there, and I witness and live through this experience.
Me and my Wife, we were one of thousands passengers stranded in the Middle Est, in Doha-DOH-, on Feb. 28th we were in DOH airport to take a flight to RUH, exactly in the moment that the bombs, missile and antiaircraft battery started firing, Alarms went on and we were advice that airport and airspace was close and that we were in the middle of a war. We went to a hotel and waited for instructions of the situation.
The Qatar State did their best to make us feel safe and there approach to this situation it very cautious and secure.
As a result, Qatar Airways QR was in a difficult position.
The airport was close and it remained close until we left on the 11th of march. Our only way to leave Qatar was with a special escort and transportation of the Mexican Embassy into Saudi Arabia, to RUH to flight back to MEX and MID.
My flight with QR in business class from DOH-MIA was never schedule, it did appear on the app only to be cancel days later. I end up canceling the ticket, and until today I still waiting for the miles/points with taxes to be refunded. The chats, phone they don´t answer. I understand its a very difficult situation and I need to have patience. its OK.
I studied Geopolitics, and in the moment they announce that war started I knew that my trip was over and my objective was to leave as soon as possible the region, I have 4 children, I have to be responsible.
Israel, US and Iran a very unpredictable, and the consequences and situations changes every hour. Dubai and Israel are pretending that nothing its happening. Qatar its the only adult and responsible country in this region.
This war will go on for at least a few weeks and maybe months, and that is because is the mind set up and that is how Iran prepare for this war.
I experience very bad things and difficult moments,
I already cancel all my flights in this region for the next 12 months.
Please, take a different route or flight plans.
I hope this helps,
Thanks for reading.
I can give you my personal experience which I recently went through with Qatar Airways. If I knew what I know now, I would definitely not fly through the Gulf. My wife and I booked business class tickets on Qatar Airways back in October from Miami to CPT and JNB to Miami. We used points and money. The day we were to leave the war started. Qatar Airways cancelled the outbound flight. We had no choice but to book BA in full fare PE which cost more than business class. We went on our vacation but since we had purchased full fare tickets we knew we would be reimbursed just over half of the $6700/ticket so for a week before our return we booked and paid for a one way business class ticket back to Miami at $4000 each because it was a 24 hour in the air trip. The day after we booked, Qatar Airways was still selling that flight but they would also show that it was cancelled. We did this every day for a week. The day before we were to leave, it showed that our flight from JNB to DOH was operating but DOH to MIA was not so we kept our BA flight. The funny thing is that I would check other airlines hoping to find a reasonable biz fare instead it just kept going up. United was showing 2 seats left at $22K each. Now it’s possible that it might be worth taking the chance but I would find an alternative route if I was going. Hope this helps
The fact that you have not been refunded promptly for flights that were canceled is NOT ok in my opinion. This is a process that should be automated, and war or not most airlines have systems in place to automatically allow prompt refund passengers for flights that have been canceled.
Additionally, all flights operated by the ME3 right now should be treated with full travel waiver policies allowing date change or refund, as US carriers would typically enact in these automatically allowing qualifying tickets to be changed.
Even if you want to YOLO it, you won’t get any travel insurance to cover your flight should flight be cancelled or delayed massively. That by itself is a big no no to me.
I don't quite agree with your opinion here, your very specific experience you have described here is based on the very specific days/moments at the beginning of the war. I am a resident in the Gulf (actually have been an expat here more than a decade) and have been flying around during the Eid (end-March) through the region. I understand everyone has a different level of comfortability, so I don't particularly advise or encourage anyone to travel through the region, but won't exaggerate the situation like this now, while one should keep an eye on the development of the situation and be ready to somewhat flexible.
For me it's a hard no. Plain and simple.
The fact that they refuse to close their airsoace and have planes landing or taking off at DXB 5 minutes before or after a drone attack on the airport shows me (independently of who's fault it is that there is war) the absolute disregard they have for safety.
It's like if we've learned nothing from MH18 where (again, independently of who's fault it is that there is a war), Ukraine refuse to close down their airspace while military aircrafts we're being shot down in the area.
I'm hoping this behaviour (of irresponsibly leaving air spaces open) doesn't lead to any civilian casualty. But if there is, it isn't gonna be me or my family. I've got other plans that passing away at 37.
Dear Andrew from Yucatan,
Your comments are useless.
You only prove that you are naive and ignorant.
You blame airlines for selling tickets. Did you ever blame yourself for buying ticket on QR?
You studied geopolitics, you of all people should know better. If you are snowflake sensitive to war, you should never even fly near the middle east. It's been at war for millenniums.
By the way, Dubai hotels might be a bit cheaper, but they are already cheap for the low season. 70% off high season is normal every year.
All your statement was to show how naive you are. Did you even graduate? I feel bad for your Alma mater, you just tell the world how bad your school's geopolitics class is.
You only proved one thing, which is my point from the beginning.
ME3 customer service sucks. EK seems to be doing a bit better. EY will always be trash.
Stories from ME3 would keep proving my point.
You had bad experience with QR because things go wrong. Everyone else have the same customer experience problem as you.
I just got Qtared. They cancelled my itinerary at the end of April out of the blue...