Delta’s CEO recently gave an interview where he proactively volunteered what it’ll take for airfare to go down. He claimed airfare is high due to capacity constraints, and he stated the solution to that is air traffic control reform. That strikes me… as a bit of a stretch.
In this post:
Delta CEO blames high fares on ATC capacity constraints
Delta CEO Ed Bastian had a roughly 15-minute interview several days ago with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business. Bastian isn’t exactly the most controversial CEO in terms of the claims he makes, so not much in there will surprise you.
He talked about how everything at Delta is great, since the airline caters to the very top end of the economy. He praised the administration for their awesomeness. He talked about how airfare has increased by around 10-15% due to the Iran conflict, and he doesn’t expect for it to go up much beyond that.
But here’s what I find interesting. Around 10min35sec into the interview, while talking about general air traffic control reform, he made the following statement, which wasn’t even in direct response to a question:
“People ask me all the time, what’s happening with prices? Prices will come down when we can fly more, when there’s more supply, it’s a supply and demand. Right now we’re kind of logjammed. There’s not a lot of supply we can bring in because the air traffic control system is congested. As you open up the skies, and you bring more flow, that’s going to help bring pricing down and enable us to bring more people to more places.”
Broadly, capacity reductions aren’t due to air traffic control
We absolutely have issues with our air traffic control system in the United States, and it desperately needs reform, because it contributes to a lot of the delays that we see. However, to suggest that airfare is expensive because of that is simply not accurate:
- At the end of the day, airfare is priced based on supply and demand, and not entirely based on the cost of providing air transport (or else many US carriers wouldn’t be stuck selling tickets at a loss)
- We’ve seen airfare increase in price by around 30% since the beginning of the year (a lot higher than the 10-15% that Bastian suggests), and nothing has changed about air traffic control during that period
- Instead, the reason airfare has increased is because airlines have strategically decreased capacity, which is the number one cause of fares increasing; let me emphasize that airlines are voluntarily decreasing capacity at the moment so that they can increase fares
- If airlines are so concerned about congested airspace, may I suggest that they not fly so many regional jets with so few seats? For that matter, Delta has the smallest mainline jets on order of any US airline, as the carrier flies a bunch of A220s with 109-130 seats, with a lot more on the way
- If we’re going to look at the baseline airfare before the recent hike in prices, passenger revenue per air seat mile at even profitable US airlines was largely lower than cost per air seat mile, with loyalty programs and other initiatives making up much of the revenue gap; costs in the industry aren’t going down, so are you going to tell me that this divide is going to increase even more?
Like I said, I agree we need air traffic control reform, in terms of making our air travel system more efficient. But to suggest this is some silver bullet that’s going to lead to lower airfare (beyond the low fares we saw before this current conflict) is just baseless.
And let me support this with one more point. When is Bastian suggesting that air traffic control was actually functional, and not the cause of higher airfare? Because if you look at the consumer price index for airfare over the years, it doesn’t seem to have any correlation to air traffic control staffing shortages.
Lastly, let me just contrast what Bastian is saying to the words of United CEO Scott Kirby (who doesn’t really hide his true intentions, or say what consumers want to hear). During the company’s Q1 2026 earnings call, Kirby made it clear that higher airfare is here to stay, and that the longer this conflict lasts, the more permanently they can keep higher pricing:
“Certainly, the longer this lasts, the higher the probability goes that the pricing increases hold. And we probably won’t hold 100% if we normalize as I told the team earlier today, and it’s just my guess that if things went back to mid-February normal, I think we get to keep 20% of the price increase next year. I think that’s going to move towards 80%. And every day, it’s ticking up longer as this goes on.”
I’m not suggesting Kirby is the most trustworthy guy in the industry, but I think that narrative is a lot more honest than Bastian suggesting that air traffic control is to blame for high airfare.
Bottom line
In recent months, we’ve seen airfare increase by an average of around 30%, among the biggest changes we’ve seen in such a short period of time in history. That’s largely fair, in the sense that airlines are facing higher costs than in the past.
However, if you’re an airline CEO and you proactively mention how people often ask you when tickets will get cheaper, it seems a bit disingenuous to say that airfare will go down when we see air traffic control reform. I agree airfare pricing is a function of capacity, but most of the capacity adjustments we see at airline are voluntary (to be able to raise airfare), rather than due to any concern for air traffic control staffing levels.
It seems a more honest answer would be that airfare might go down a bit once this conflict with Iran ends, but perhaps that’s too anti-administration for Bastian’s liking?
What do you make of Bastian’s comments about airfare pricing?
As per usual Walter Mitty Dunn, prattles on and on, off topic. Arguing about matters which are irrelevant to the article subject under discussion. Repeating the same old, same old, unsubstantiated opinions. Overstating some facts while omitting other more important information. Never offering a checkable link to support his dubious assertions. A very typical position taken by a one term Mayor of a GA, backwater town.
We all know that it is a complete waste...
As per usual Walter Mitty Dunn, prattles on and on, off topic. Arguing about matters which are irrelevant to the article subject under discussion. Repeating the same old, same old, unsubstantiated opinions. Overstating some facts while omitting other more important information. Never offering a checkable link to support his dubious assertions. A very typical position taken by a one term Mayor of a GA, backwater town.
We all know that it is a complete waste of one’s time asking him to quantify his moronic ramblings, therefore, it becomes necessary to state the obvious …. the reason why it is widely reported that he was booted out of DL, was perhaps because of his stubbornness.
at least you are bothering to at least refence the topic but the TOPIC about metro size by GDP is what rebel has repeatedly brought to the discussion.
Now that he is faced w/ the reality that the domestic market at MSP - where DL is the largest carrier - is larger than at IAH - the whole notion that UA is going to grow out of 4th place in the US domestic market is...
at least you are bothering to at least refence the topic but the TOPIC about metro size by GDP is what rebel has repeatedly brought to the discussion.
Now that he is faced w/ the reality that the domestic market at MSP - where DL is the largest carrier - is larger than at IAH - the whole notion that UA is going to grow out of 4th place in the US domestic market is foolish.
but let's be clear that rebel wants to argue about anything possible to admit that UA not only is relegated to 4th place because none of the other big 4 carriers are willing to let UA steal share in connecting markets while DL is growing into major industry markets from LAX - which happen to be UA's largest hub first and then will continue with AA and UA hubs.
rebel is famous for arguing everything and then defaming anyone that tells the truth he doesn't want to hear
"Now that he is faced w/ the reality that the domestic market at MSP - where DL is the largest carrier - is larger than at IAH - the whole notion that UA is going to grow out of 4th place in the US domestic market is foolish."
The way you try to extrapolate tidbits you see into larger arguments is so incredibly idiotic. No, the MSP metro area does NOT have more local domestic...
"Now that he is faced w/ the reality that the domestic market at MSP - where DL is the largest carrier - is larger than at IAH - the whole notion that UA is going to grow out of 4th place in the US domestic market is foolish."
The way you try to extrapolate tidbits you see into larger arguments is so incredibly idiotic. No, the MSP metro area does NOT have more local domestic traffic or O&D than the Houston area. The way you try to spin things... lol. There are two airports in Houston, sure. One of them has the ability to grow and flow more traffic just like DFW and DAL co-exist but DFW is still going to be passing ATL in flight movements within a few years.
MaxPower says, "DFW is still going to be passing ATL in flight movements within a few years."
Indeed.
AA DFW: ≈ 145 gates/+36 new gates by 2027
UA IAH: ≈ 84 gates/+22 new gates this year
SW AUS: 10 gates/+ 8 new gates by mid-2030s
DL AUS: 4 gates/+11 new gates by mid-2030s
DL ATL: 151 gates/+2 NK gates
and yet airlines are not about running the most flights but moving the most revenue.
AA has more domestic flights on regional jets than mainline systemwide while DL has the lowest percentage of RJ flights of the big 3 plus AS. the same trend is true comparing ATL vs. DFW>
as hard as it is for some to admit, DL has built ATL into something that no other airline can match = let alone exceed....
and yet airlines are not about running the most flights but moving the most revenue.
AA has more domestic flights on regional jets than mainline systemwide while DL has the lowest percentage of RJ flights of the big 3 plus AS. the same trend is true comparing ATL vs. DFW>
as hard as it is for some to admit, DL has built ATL into something that no other airline can match = let alone exceed. DL moves far more passengers and revenue through ATL than AA does through DFW - and those two are the only true megahubs in the US.
we've been through the rest but ATL is a much bigger local domestic market than its GDP says it should be and also larger than IAH and AUS.
Yep, ATL is the best domestic hub in the world not because of O&D (GDP), but because of geographic positioning and airport efficiency.
But when TD says, "It is the Texas and southeast US hubs - where UA is the weakest - that have the great capacity to handle more traffic." and “AA and UA can’t do what DL is doing at AUS because DL is the only one of the big 3 that...
Yep, ATL is the best domestic hub in the world not because of O&D (GDP), but because of geographic positioning and airport efficiency.
But when TD says, "It is the Texas and southeast US hubs - where UA is the weakest - that have the great capacity to handle more traffic." and “AA and UA can’t do what DL is doing at AUS because DL is the only one of the big 3 that grows hubs”
You just have to laugh.
AA DFW: ≈ 145 gates/+36 new gates by 2027
UA IAH: ≈ 84 gates/+22 new gates this year
SW AUS: 10 gates/+ 8 new gates by mid-2030s
DL AUS: 4 gates/+11 new gates by mid-2030s
TD says, "It is the Texas and southeast US hubs - where UA is the weakest - that have the great capacity to handle more traffic."
That's great because, actually, United Airlines has a hub in Houston, TX (IAH) that has just been completely renovated and opening 22 new gates for UA. I forget does DL have a hub in Texas?
poor little fella can't quite accept that IAH is the 16th largest domestic market in the US.
and even more shocking is that IAD is the 35th - can you believe it - 35th largest domestic market.
and to think that rebel thinks that UA's expansion in two of the smallest hubs in the US is going to move UA's position up from 4th place in the domestic market.
and EWR, ORD and SFO...
poor little fella can't quite accept that IAH is the 16th largest domestic market in the US.
and even more shocking is that IAD is the 35th - can you believe it - 35th largest domestic market.
and to think that rebel thinks that UA's expansion in two of the smallest hubs in the US is going to move UA's position up from 4th place in the domestic market.
and EWR, ORD and SFO capacity is CAPPED by government regulators right now.
No other US airline faces the same fate at as many hubs as UA.
Bastian is right - but he was speaking more about UA than anyone else.
sadly, though, for the lack of capacity at UA hubs, airfares at their hubs are lower than at hub airports by AA and even more so at DL hub airports.
Bureau of Transportation Statistics Average Domestic Airline Itinerary Fares is a great resource - unless you don't want real facts and data countering his narrrative.
LTD says, "EWR, ORD and SFO capacity is CAPPED by government regulators right now."
Just like LGA & JFK? Every airport has capacity constraints, but as you say Texas has plenty of ATC bandwidth. Those 22 new gates and a completely renovated airport with cutting edge security, baggage and customs facilities will be great for United as will the 14 new gates at IAD. It sounds like the President wants to spend federal $ to...
LTD says, "EWR, ORD and SFO capacity is CAPPED by government regulators right now."
Just like LGA & JFK? Every airport has capacity constraints, but as you say Texas has plenty of ATC bandwidth. Those 22 new gates and a completely renovated airport with cutting edge security, baggage and customs facilities will be great for United as will the 14 new gates at IAD. It sounds like the President wants to spend federal $ to accelerate IAD's renovation. And 250 new aircraft from this year to April 2028. Amazing. Lots of upgauging to look forward to.
EWR, ORD and SFO aren't slot controlled, little fella
neither is DL trying to grow its capacity at rates that far exceed GDP.
and DL is flying more flights than it has slots for at JFK and LGA because AA and B6 aren't using their slots.
EWR, SFO, and ORD are UA's 3 largest hubs; NYC is DL's 2nd largest revenue city behind ATL which has the doors wide open for growth.
IAH is the...
EWR, ORD and SFO aren't slot controlled, little fella
neither is DL trying to grow its capacity at rates that far exceed GDP.
and DL is flying more flights than it has slots for at JFK and LGA because AA and B6 aren't using their slots.
EWR, SFO, and ORD are UA's 3 largest hubs; NYC is DL's 2nd largest revenue city behind ATL which has the doors wide open for growth.
IAH is the 16th largest domestic market in the US; IAD is much further down the list.
UA CANNOT grow the domestic market by adding a bunch of capacity without diluting their own yields - which they did in multiple previous quarters including in 2024 and 2025.
UA is desperately trying to dig itself of 4th place in the US domestic market and cannot do it under capacity restraints at the nation's largest airports.
Meanwhile, DL has the gate space advantage at LAX and is adding flights to other airline hubs while also adding TPAC flights from LAX, both of which reduce UA's advantage as the largest TPAC carrier and the largest legacy on the west coast.
DL is, once again, outstrategizing every other competitor and esp. UA which has bellowed about its great strategies - which DL reduces to ashes with a few selected route announcements, the first of many
LTD says, "EWR, ORD and SFO capacity is CAPPED by government regulators right now." "EWR, ORD and SFO aren't slot controlled"
Slots and the other caps are instituted by the FAA. Currently, the FAA is part of the DOT which is part of the "government". Poor tiny Tim.
"poor little fella can't quite accept that IAH is the 16th largest domestic market in the US. and even more shocking is that IAD is the 35th - can you believe it - 35th largest domestic market"
how stupid are you, Tim? This is obviously doesn't represent local demand since both airports represent easily top ten US Metros in population and GDP but both airports have local competitors. Only you would run out of things...
"poor little fella can't quite accept that IAH is the 16th largest domestic market in the US. and even more shocking is that IAD is the 35th - can you believe it - 35th largest domestic market"
how stupid are you, Tim? This is obviously doesn't represent local demand since both airports represent easily top ten US Metros in population and GDP but both airports have local competitors. Only you would run out of things to say so resort to this kind of mindless idiotic way of measuring demand.
CLT has similar local demand yet easily transports massive amounts of domestic traffic via connection. UA can easily keep an airport like IAD focused on their strengths but also use it to transit more pax similar to ATL and CLT flows.
Seriously, you come up with some dumb thoughts, sTD. But hey, now you have your little Robin sidekick in Yolo to say equally dumb things with equally stupid logic. ;)
rebel wants to tell us how great the IAH domestic market is.
IAH is the 16th largest domestic market - the 6th largest UA hub. DFW is th 7th largest domestic market and gets higher average fares than IAH.
DL has 7 hubs that are in metros with higher total revenue than IAH including MSP.
no, rebel, there is NO correlation between the size of the GDP in a metro and the size of the...
rebel wants to tell us how great the IAH domestic market is.
IAH is the 16th largest domestic market - the 6th largest UA hub. DFW is th 7th largest domestic market and gets higher average fares than IAH.
DL has 7 hubs that are in metros with higher total revenue than IAH including MSP.
no, rebel, there is NO correlation between the size of the GDP in a metro and the size of the air travel market and esp. not what a specific carrier gets.
the size of the IAH domestic air travel market could not be 16th largest if there was any correlation to the GDP size of the metro.
rebel gets skooled again....someday the poor child will learn to quit arguing against people that know what they are talking about
but it is fun to reduce him to rubble on every post he makes.
btw, you have yet to tell us how UA managed to have higher earnings than DL in 1Q2025 and yet end up making $1.6 billion less than DL in 2025.
what metro area cratered that caused that huge earnings crash?
and how big will the gap be in 2026 given UA's huge increase in labor costs?
How much more debt will UA take on because their cash flow decreases just as ten billion dollars worth of new airplanes show up on UA's doorstep?
LTD says, “ It is the Texas and southeast US hubs - where UA is the weakest”
And here I thought IAH was in Texas. I hear IAH has had its roadways, inter-terminal train, security and baggage handling completely updated and UA is opening 22 new gates.
How great is that for UA that Texas
Thanks rebel, appreciate you level-setting this. To confirm, LTD refers to Liddle Tim "The Deuce" Dunn, yes?
How great is that for UA that Texas has "the great capacity to handle more traffic" as LTD so rightly said. Bravo LTD!
How terrible is that for Terrible Timothea "Tampon Tim" Tom TinkyDink that United has "the great capacity to handle more traffic" as Rebel so rightly said. Bravo Rebel!
Tim Dunn?
rebel.
Not all AeroB13a ‘Guest’ accounts are posting from the genuine AeroB13a login source.
Ben, knows only too well that this childish practice takes place under his nose, but FAILS to intervene. Why Ben, cannot be bothered to curtail the practice is beyond my comprehension.
One observation which I have made on numerous occasions is that this misappropriation occurs following an exchange of views with Mr Walter Mitty (Tim) Dunn. Quite a coincidence, yes?
the irony, of course, is that UA has 3 hubs that are currrently capped by the FAA due to ATC and airport constraints - so Bastian's argument more accurately describes UA's situation than DL hubs.
Bastian is right that capacity cannot come into the US airline system if the highest value markets are constrained; NYC is capped or slot controlled. LAX is gate constrained. ORD is flight constrained as is SFO.
It is the Texas...
the irony, of course, is that UA has 3 hubs that are currrently capped by the FAA due to ATC and airport constraints - so Bastian's argument more accurately describes UA's situation than DL hubs.
Bastian is right that capacity cannot come into the US airline system if the highest value markets are constrained; NYC is capped or slot controlled. LAX is gate constrained. ORD is flight constrained as is SFO.
It is the Texas and southeast US hubs - where UA is the weakest - that have the great capacity to handle more traffic.
and Kirby is also right that fares are not going to come down because capacity has been reduced due to higher fares as a result of higher fuel prices; it is notable that Kirby said that air travel is inelastic and yet UA has pulled 5% of its capacity for the 2nd half of the year - which shouldn't be happening if demand was inelastic.
Both execs spoke about pieces of the same puzzle; Kirby just got wrong the whole notion that air travel demand is inelastic. Their own actions prove otherwise.
Bastain should go back to Coachella and SXSW. Hes more into that than running an airline.
and yet DAL stock has been the best performing US airline in the past year, DL has the highest market cap and revenue of any airline in the world, and DL is the most profitable US airline.
whether you like Bastian or not, if he can go to Coachella and deliver that kind of performance, then other CEOs should take even more time off.
Heathrow and Gatwick see 30 minutes taxi time regularly too. We blame the airport, not the ATC.
UncleFester, umm I mean, UncleRonald, I disagree. Regardless of who is at fault, the Airport will also be blamed. Case and point - airline cancles a flight because of the weather... the passengers all blame the airline. Not the weather. Do you honestly believe that the average passenger has any remote level of awareness or understanding of ATC vs Airport Operations? No irreverent fanfare needed here, Airports will continue to be wholly blamed, alongside Ronald's...
UncleFester, umm I mean, UncleRonald, I disagree. Regardless of who is at fault, the Airport will also be blamed. Case and point - airline cancles a flight because of the weather... the passengers all blame the airline. Not the weather. Do you honestly believe that the average passenger has any remote level of awareness or understanding of ATC vs Airport Operations? No irreverent fanfare needed here, Airports will continue to be wholly blamed, alongside Ronald's testes, globally for issues that are really ATC-related in nature,
Yes, it would alleviate congestion leading to shorter ground time and possibly quicker routes. That causes more fuel to be spent and more in crew costs. But his airline doesn't seem to want to fund improvements.
On a beautiful day yesterday 30 minutes of taxi time at ORD before final take off.
@ George N Romey -- Oh ATC is a mess, and congestion at airports like ORD is a problem (though ATC reform wouldn't necessarily shorten ORD taxi times). But I also don't think that even ranks in the top five factors driving airfare increases.
Well, ORD taxi delays are due to the active construction and somewhat odd layout of terminals and their distance from far away runways. Even in perfect cases where you don't end up in the penalty box, it will still take some time to navigate the construction and the sheer distance.
So jet fuel price doubles and airlines are supposed to add capacity and not raise prices? I think that was Spirit's approach.
@ Jetiquette -- I certainly think airlines are justified in trying to raise fares when airfare went up that much. But I think what would lead to lower fares again is lower oil prices, rather than air traffic control changes. Seems pretty intuitive to me.
The more I learn about the U.S. domestic airlines, the published profits, their policies, their CEO’s, etc, the more they remind me of Ryanair and that despicable leprechaun O’Leary.
Three Star LCC all of them. Apparently in business to ripoff the proletariat at every turn and now confirmed by Bastian. Later to be elevated to Sainthood by Walter Mitty Dunn.
This must be a Parody , created to excuse the too-high executive pay , and the need for the airlines to pay for the airport and FAA-controller infrastructure benefiting them .
Hey Ben - sorry, not related to this story. Are you going to write about the skydiving plane that went down in France?
in the kindest way. One went down south of MCI and I don't think he wrote about that either?
To be honest, I couldn't care less about what Ed Bastian says or what conclusions he draws.
When it comes to well-founded analyses and market knowledge regarding Delta, the world's best American premium airline, there's only one truth for me: TD in the comment sections on OMAAT.
Klaus_S, please, please Klaus, assure me that you are laughing up your sleeve when you post:
“There's only one truth for me: TD in the comment sections on OMAAT”.
I will even login and offer you a ‘Helpful’ tick if you confirm that you are having a laugh? …. :-)
No worries. I am still sane and laughing.
Funny, DL's investor report is all about how capacity discipline driving up fares and increasing margins.
As plane sizes go, it's worth noting that DL has the fewest RJs of the major carriers - by a significant margin. Their official strategy with the CS1s was to "upgauge" routes that had previously been RJ-operated, though it's not clear to me whether that's actually what's happened.
Yes, he was advised of this so-called fact by Tom Deuce (Tim Dunce) who is of course a very well known and likewise deeply respected "expert"......