United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby made some interesting comments this week about the profitability of the carrier’s hubs, in comparison to those of the competition (thanks to @xJonNYC for flagging this). I don’t think this is terribly surprising, but it’s something most of us probably haven’t put much thought into.
In this post:
United claims all of its hubs are profitable, unlike competitors
United’s financial performance has been improving nicely in recent years, under the leadership of Scott Kirby. Kirby outlined one of the primary strategies he has been employing to improve profitability, particularly as it related to hubs.
This starts with an interesting claim — Kirby insists that he has data supporting that United is the only airline in the country to have all of its hubs be profitable, and at other airlines that isn’t even close to being true. Furthermore, United has pretty equal profitability between hubs, and the difference in profitability between the carrier’s most and least profitable hubs is only six points.
Why is it so important to have all hubs be profitable? Well, you’ll be shocked to hear this, but there’s a credit card angle. 😉
Kirby believes that customers typically choose the best airline in a given market (usually the one with the biggest presence), and then get their credit card. If an airline is second place in a market, it gets dramatically less traction with its loyalty program, so being the number one airline of choice in a particular market is one of Kirby’s biggest priorities.
Kirby believes that this is a large part of the carrier’s success, and that this dominant position makes customers “sticky,” and easier to monetize.
My take on Kirby’s hub profitability claims
It’s fascinating how the airline industry has evolved. Even the most profitable airlines make much of their profits through loyalty programs, so that completely changes the strategy when it comes to what it makes sense to focus on, and how to grow.
When your average cost per air seat mile is roughly comparable to your average revenue per air seat mile, hub profitability isn’t just about the average fare in a market. It’s also about how much loyalty you can build up, and how much revenue you can generate through credit card agreements and other opportunities.
United does indeed have really well rounded hubs. Chicago (ORD), Denver (DEN), Houston (IAH), Newark (EWR), San Francisco (SFO), and Washington (IAD), are all strong hubs for United, where the airline has a dominant market position. I’d say that Los Angeles (LAX) is the only questionable hub, since it’s an airport where all of the “big three” US carriers have hubs, and no airline has that big of an advantage.
There’s no point in even discussing the profitability of American’s hubs, since, well, American isn’t very profitable. But clearly Kirby’s statements were intended to draw a contrast to Delta, the carrier’s biggest competitor.
Kirby is almost certainly right that not all of Delta’s hubs are profitable. Atlanta (ATL), Detroit (DTW), Minneapolis (MSP), and Salt Lake City (SLC), are presumably wildly profitable hubs. I would imagine that New York (JFK) is probably profitable as well, while I’m not sure about Boston (BOS) and Los Angeles (LAX). Meanwhile I think it’s highly likely that Seattle (SEA) is currently Delta’s least profitable hub.
Delta continues to be more profitable than United, so obviously those profits are coming from somewhere. While United only has a six point difference between its most and least profitable hub, I imagine the spread at Delta is absolutely massive.
Also, presumably part of Delta’s strategy is to continue growing in unprofitable hubs until they are profitable. That’s not guaranteed to work, but it’s a fair strategy to try.
Bottom line
United CEO Scott Kirby insists that his airline is the only one in the United States where all hubs are profitable. Not only that, but there’s a remarkable level of profit consistency between hubs, with a spread of just six points between the most and least profitable hubs.
As Kirby sees it, this profitability comes down to having a dominant position in a market, so that it’s easier to get “sticky” customers who also pick up credit cards.
While Delta is the most profitable US airline, there’s simply no denying that the airline has a much bigger spread in terms of profitability between hubs. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, it’s just a different strategy. I’d be fascinated to know just how big that spread is at Delta.
What do you make of Kirby’s hub profitability claims?
My favorite takeaway from this comments section is that, not only did Tim create fake profiles and use AI to post comments supporting himself, but that he also openly defended the practice, saying that even if it is his own AI use, it still supports his circular logic and refusal to see facts.
You lost and all you can do is attempt to slander those who recognize true facts
Your tactics are as old as social media itself. There are no fake accounts here.
so, in summary, UA touts its grandeur once again but still can't pass DL's profitability on a system wide basis despite having a $1 billion/yr labor cost advantage.
all of the blabber that comes out of UA execs mouths fails to deal w/ the reality that they have been chasing DL for over 7 years and are still well in DL's rearview mirror.
Your airline has been owned Tim. And so have you.
But do babble on.....we know how much you love to hear yourself squawk.
It's amusing how desperately you crave the last word.
Enjoy your day, Tim. And get some mental help. Your obsession is highly amusing and your "facts" far too easy to prove wrong. But seriously. Get some help.
Congrats again to United on going from easily last place in the industry in margin to closing the gap with DL on margin.
Scott Kirby and his team constantly prove they're the best in the...
It's amusing how desperately you crave the last word.
Enjoy your day, Tim. And get some mental help. Your obsession is highly amusing and your "facts" far too easy to prove wrong. But seriously. Get some help.
Congrats again to United on going from easily last place in the industry in margin to closing the gap with DL on margin.
Scott Kirby and his team constantly prove they're the best in the industry.
Everything they've done with an airline that has zero low CPE hubs, no fortress hubs, a bad credit card deal, and an entirely unionized workforce is nothing short of amazing.
Why you are so jealous of Scott Kirby is baffling. You're a bottom-dwelling drunk commenter on a blog. He's a rich CEO that turned around United and doesn't even know your name. But perhaps that's why.
just like you and what you chose to do below, Max.
You are such a hypocrite and you can't even see it.
If Scott Kirby was as good as they think they are, DL wouldn't be in front.
It's plain and simple
When Scottie and his dream team start talking about WHY they continue to trail DL and then tell us how they will close the gap w/o making excuses, we'll listen
Obviously, Delta is the world's only PERFECT airline.
In summary, UA’s earnings are almost even with DL’s, looking at the momentum gained from Q1 through Q4.
DL cut its Q1 2025 earnings guidance in half, while UA reiterated they will still make their guidance, even if at the lower end of the range.
DL has fortress hub pricing and limited competition in four of their hubs, without even a competing airport in four of their hub cities. UA faces significant completion...
In summary, UA’s earnings are almost even with DL’s, looking at the momentum gained from Q1 through Q4.
DL cut its Q1 2025 earnings guidance in half, while UA reiterated they will still make their guidance, even if at the lower end of the range.
DL has fortress hub pricing and limited competition in four of their hubs, without even a competing airport in four of their hub cities. UA faces significant completion in every hub metro area.
DL has its fortress hubs that bolster its other hubs where they don’t compete as well as UA does in their own hubs.
DL also has billions in extra annual revenue from their credit card agreement, due to the cycle in which the US3 renegotiated their contracts. UA will receive a significant boost when their next contract comes up.
In spite of all their structural advantages, DL earnings in the most recent quarter are not significantly more than UA’s.
And, again, DL cut earnings guidance in half while UA maintained their Q1 2025 earnings guidance.
As hard as it is for you to say, Delta will still be the most profitable US airline.
United will make 80% of Delta‘s profits even though they will fly 105% of Delta‘s ASM’s and have a $1 billion labor cost advantage
Great article, Ben.
It certainly got under the skin of the usual suspect and his AI shadow self.
Congrats to United. It's honestly pretty amazing that United is as close in margin to DL as they are given the complete lack of low CPE core hubs like DL uses for their profitability.
And all that without a credit card deal like DL has.
Max power
Also believe that Amex DL happens to be that way because Amex lost Costco, which started the chain reaction of overpaying for miles. I mean if Amex loses DL, they have nobody for any cobranded card at scale.
In other words DL has Amex by the balls which help them . Any other bank, they would not have that leverage
and that speaks volumes about UA's potential to get a much higher deal for its card deal.
United doesn't even have a US airline exclusive deal with Chase.
and Max,
UA is at 80% of DL's profits despite flying 105% of DL's ASMs. that is HARDLY a metric to celebrate
United closing the gap in margin to DL is impressive with all the advantages they don't have that Delta has. But I hardly doubt you'd celebrate that.
Perhaps if you stopped caring about a company that doesn't love you back, you'd have the common sense to realize the feat United has achieved.
Until then. You're exhausting but I did have a fun day researching data to prove you wrong. Thanks for that.
A far more interesting and factual tidbit of news is that Spirit has exited chapter 11 today.
Why is that more interesting? We all knew it was coming.
Can only one topic be discussed per day?
Tim always changes the topic when he knows he's wrong.
we can indeed talk about multiple topics.
and it is you two that are being pulverized because you are incapable of using real facts - you only know how to cherrypick reality
Spirit is back - which is notable given how much Kirby has talked about how he would kill the ULCCs and steal all their passengers.
THAT's why it is significant.
"and it is you two that are being pulverized because you are incapable of using real facts - you only know how to cherrypick reality"
The reality of Delta 10-Ks and 8-Ks? That you don't like? I just use Delta's own SEC filings.
Or the reality of market share shifts in SE and NYC away from DL that you don't seem to know anything about?
There hasn't been any cherrypicking today. It's using...
"and it is you two that are being pulverized because you are incapable of using real facts - you only know how to cherrypick reality"
The reality of Delta 10-Ks and 8-Ks? That you don't like? I just use Delta's own SEC filings.
Or the reality of market share shifts in SE and NYC away from DL that you don't seem to know anything about?
There hasn't been any cherrypicking today. It's using what you stated as fact and giving data to prove you wrong. Though I admit you make it very easy to do so.
you are so desperate to cling to your cherrypicked reality that you can't stand to admit that all of the share growth that you think everyone else is getting doesn't translate into profits.
Tell us, maxieboy, how much money is AA forecast to LOSE this quarter?
How much is DL is forecast to make?
All of your drivel around how poorly DL is doing falls flat on its face in light of real facts that everyone except for you understands.
Not you trying to change the topic again?
I think your wine is waiting for you somewhere.
I've responding to this topic and providing feed for Ben to discuss tomorrow.
You are clinging to minuscule improvements in AA's size in GA as evidence they are winning anything - when they are nothing more than a speck of a ghat on DL's backside.
Why don't you repeat that same little exercise for Texas and N. Carolina and let us know those numbers.
Hmmm. I thought this post about UA, DL secondary? Now he throws on AA to constrict an argument?
check w/ Max below who wants to talk about AA's size in GA as if that is something of any consequence to anyone but someone with too much time on their hand and no perspective or common sense
Simply responding to your inaccurate claims, as usual, that DL dominates the SE which you randomly used to attempt to misdirect the topic... yet again.
You were wrong when refuted initially and wrong about your claims in the SE as well. Of course it's not the topic. But neither was you bringing it up and if you're going to make factually inaccurate statements I'll disprove those too.
Move along, Tim.
then post data about the SE, not GA where anyone w/ half a brain knows that DL so handedly dominates compared to AA.
AA's strength is CLT. DL is larger than AA in RDU, MCO, TPA etc etc etc all cities that have far larger local markets. and then there is MIA where DL is still the second largest airline. Add in Latam and DL/Latam have more capacity from MIA to the largest cities in S. America than AA.
Do we just make up lies now?
American Airlines has 3,035,000 annual pax and 21.09% market share
Delta Air Lines has 2,975,000 annual pax and 20.67% market share
So no, DL is not larger than AA in RDU. And DL isn't even the largest airline at MCO or TPA.
Tim, my primary post was about the states of TN and AL. Places where Delta's "SE Dominance" has simply evaporated. The states of GA and NC aren't interesting places to look. I brought up Georgia because it's interesting that Delta's significant lead even in their home state (WITH ATL) has also changed in AA's favor.
But Again. Give a state.
Per RDU, In the last year of actual data, 2024, AA was bigger than...
Tim, my primary post was about the states of TN and AL. Places where Delta's "SE Dominance" has simply evaporated. The states of GA and NC aren't interesting places to look. I brought up Georgia because it's interesting that Delta's significant lead even in their home state (WITH ATL) has also changed in AA's favor.
But Again. Give a state.
Per RDU, In the last year of actual data, 2024, AA was bigger than Delta in every metric. Is this really the best you can do?
That looks likely to change in the 2025 schedule but it has not yet.
Per TPA, AA had more flights than DL in 2024 but fewer ASMs. I guess decide who's bigger per that but Delta certainly isn't dominating
MCO, delta is bigger. Look at you! you got one right!?
Is Delta bigger than AA in the SE? No. they are not. But it's easy to find markets where one airline is bigger than the other.
But this is fun. let's play the Florida game since you enjoy this so much.
To be fair to you, I'll exclude MIA from the Florida markets.
so this comparison includes: MCO, TPA, FLL, PBI, EYWW, RSW, SRQ, MLB, DAB, GNV, JAX, TLH, ECP, VPS, and PNS (but to be clear, this would include flights from these airports to MIA. Just not the MIA hub operation)
In 2015:
DL had 77% more Flights than AA in the State ex-MIA
In 2025, DL has 0.1% fewer flights than AA in the state. AA has also had more flights than DL in the state for 4 of the last 5 years, ex-MIA hub
In 2015:
DL had 106% more Seats than AA ex-MIA
In 2025, DL has 19% more seats
In 2015:
DL had 85% more capacity than AA ex-MIA
In 2025, DL has 37% more
AA has more flights ex-MIA in Florida today. Delta has more Capacity. But that share drop ex-MIA since the AA merger isn't anything I'd be bragging about, but you seem to disagree.
This is fun but I have plans tonight. Enjoy your night
Get a life. This is getting pathetic.
I think a comment in this article is interesting as it highlights how United and probably other US airlines see their credit-card linked loyalty programs as a revenue source compared to cash airfare selling.
Credit card based loyalty programs generate hard cash based on consumer spending. From the airline perspective they trade dollars from the credit card company for future undefined flying rights (miles) for the credit card holder.
From the card holder...
I think a comment in this article is interesting as it highlights how United and probably other US airlines see their credit-card linked loyalty programs as a revenue source compared to cash airfare selling.
Credit card based loyalty programs generate hard cash based on consumer spending. From the airline perspective they trade dollars from the credit card company for future undefined flying rights (miles) for the credit card holder.
From the card holder point of view this costs them virtually nothing (except fees) though that value is actually laced in the price of all goods sold. (talk about inflation and high prices hey ?)
At that point the airline has already captured the customer and extracted value as the customer has used the airline credit card and generated cash to the airline. Now the consumer has bought a currency that the airline is in control of. As they are now outside of the dollar system, they may be subjected to arbitrary price changes and inflation, with a disconnect between the price originally paid and the final value obtained which is where the airline profits.
Cash paying customers however see a direct link between dollars paid and product obtained and this leads to lower profitability because they can compare the value of their dollars to what they get in the end. Something that is incredibly difficult with miles.
So in consolidated average, considering the loyalty programs are more profitable revenue sources than airfare sales, one can say loyalty programs are a worse deal for an average customer than paying your airfare in cash. However there are ways to "extract" value of the system with perseverance which leads to the existence of the aspirational travel industry that this blog is part of. Based on this the average miles customer feels they have a good deal, because they have no clue how much they have spent. The trick is to convince them to redeem at high mile cost for a low intrinsic value product.
Obviously, game theory 1-0-1, this works only if a couple of happy fews are rewarded for their perseverance. As the tips and tricks get more widespread, the sweetspots get rarer and harder to find, so that the vast masses of miles users stay in this situation where their miles redemptions are less valuable than hard cash. And airlines can continue to profit from their hubs without being incentivized to actually have a very good product.
And then in comes Air France with a better product to skim the profitable miles from those TATL flyers.
I agree with Kirby on this. UA's has hubs where O&D Traffic is high! The O&D markets are LA, NYC, WAS/BAL SFO Bay Area Chicago (tied), Boston, Houston, Dallas in that order. ATL probably fits in the next tier of O&D markets along with PHL, DTW, DEN, SEA, MIA etc. MSP and SLC are probably tier three markets. The more O&D potential, the more premium cabins you fill. That said, DL has huge operational advantage...
I agree with Kirby on this. UA's has hubs where O&D Traffic is high! The O&D markets are LA, NYC, WAS/BAL SFO Bay Area Chicago (tied), Boston, Houston, Dallas in that order. ATL probably fits in the next tier of O&D markets along with PHL, DTW, DEN, SEA, MIA etc. MSP and SLC are probably tier three markets. The more O&D potential, the more premium cabins you fill. That said, DL has huge operational advantage over any other carrier and hub at ATL. That is because of ATL's lowest CPE and the biggest ever fortress hub you can ever get. ATL essentially bankrolls rest of DL's hubs. JFK and LAX are operationally loss making for sure. As for folks calling IAD the least preferred domestic airport in the DC Metro, look back now. For 2024, IAD broke all records and handled 27 million plus passengers with 11 million plus of them international! No matter what they do, the government never shrinks and demand would come back. IAD serves two wealthiest counties in America (Loudoun and Fairfax) with large disposable income. Also with WN going thru rough times (which impacts BWI) and more operational restrictions at DCA (which impacts AA), the only airport that can absorb the growth is IAD. The sheer number of non-STAR carriers at IAD shows that.
now tell us the number of DOMESTIC passengers carried from DCA and BWI... that was the statement.
you might also want to check where ATL falls in local market revenue. It is NOT a tier 2 market.
and all the chest beating about where hubs are belies the fact that AA and DL each carry pretty comparable amounts of domestic revenue - DL carries far more of it on its own metal and over...
now tell us the number of DOMESTIC passengers carried from DCA and BWI... that was the statement.
you might also want to check where ATL falls in local market revenue. It is NOT a tier 2 market.
and all the chest beating about where hubs are belies the fact that AA and DL each carry pretty comparable amounts of domestic revenue - DL carries far more of it on its own metal and over further distances.
UA is #3 of the big 3 in domestic revenue.
Again, Kirby loves to talk about all the places where UA is winning - until the subject is where UA is not.
And DL is not slowing its growth... it has made it clear that it is matching or exceeding UA's growth rates. Based on 1st quarter data from A4A, DL was scheduled to grow its network faster than UA.
and for all of the international strength that UA has, DL is receiving more new widebodies and far more efficient widebodies than UA. UA is trying desperately to close the domestic gap by preying on the little carriers while AA, DL and WN all are fighting and will fight to keep their shares of the domestic market.
you're so obsessed with Scott Kirby...
It's funny but intensely tragic to watch it play out
UA’s domestic traffic figures and revenue continue to rise as they take delivery of 500 new planes, all larger capacity than the relatively small number aircraft being retired.
Mark,
again, cherrypicking.
DL is still the second largest airline at DCA by flights.... matters alot as the airport inevitably will become smaller.
IAD is STILL the 3rd largest domestic airport in the WAS area. Why is it so hard for you to admit that?
LGA is the largest domestic airport in the NYC area. DL is the largest carrier there.
IAD will carry a bunch of domestic connecting passengers and add international flights....
Mark,
again, cherrypicking.
DL is still the second largest airline at DCA by flights.... matters alot as the airport inevitably will become smaller.
IAD is STILL the 3rd largest domestic airport in the WAS area. Why is it so hard for you to admit that?
LGA is the largest domestic airport in the NYC area. DL is the largest carrier there.
IAD will carry a bunch of domestic connecting passengers and add international flights. and UA will spend a whole lot for facilities at IAD just as they are at other hubs.
and UA is not ADDING 500 more domestic aircraft, Mark.
Did you not read/hear that UA just said that they are going to early retire 20 or so A320s?
get your head back into reality. if you even know where to find it.
DCA is limited with a perimeter rule and BWI has historically been a lower-yielding station.
IAD has room to grow and is in the center of one of the wealthiest counties in the country. UA has been taking advantage of this with its large hub serving cities around the US and the world.
It’s too bad for DL that they had to give up significant presence in DC in order to gain a split hub operation in NYC.
UA is huge in both NYC and DC.
I've read that JFK is profitable for Delta. It's true that JFK was formerly a money pit, but after years of investment, it has turned around to be a profitable hub for Delta. Having the highest CPE in the US does hold it back, but Delta has grown significantly at JFK over the years.
JFK will always continue to be the premier NYC airport. There is a reason why UA wants to return to JFK,...
I've read that JFK is profitable for Delta. It's true that JFK was formerly a money pit, but after years of investment, it has turned around to be a profitable hub for Delta. Having the highest CPE in the US does hold it back, but Delta has grown significantly at JFK over the years.
JFK will always continue to be the premier NYC airport. There is a reason why UA wants to return to JFK, and that many of its JV partners still operate JFK flights in favor of EWR, despite lacking any domestic feed whatsoever from UA.
If Delta left Seattle they might be able to make the same claim lol
if delta left seattle, american should swoop right in and open one there. seattle is growing and it's both theirs (delta and american)'s only chances at helping neutralize united's sfo advantage. sfo is a gigantic, absolutely massive advantage for united the other two simply don't have
SEA performs well for international, which is a large source of premium revenue. TPE is notably weak due to the severe competition, but it otherwise is a top performer in their longhaul system, outperforming many of Delta's core hubs both in terms of TPAC and even TATL.
Also, Delta is heavily boosted by the Amex co-brand partnership and the Seattle MSA ranks easily in the top 10 in terms of GDP, with significant long-term growth...
SEA performs well for international, which is a large source of premium revenue. TPE is notably weak due to the severe competition, but it otherwise is a top performer in their longhaul system, outperforming many of Delta's core hubs both in terms of TPAC and even TATL.
Also, Delta is heavily boosted by the Amex co-brand partnership and the Seattle MSA ranks easily in the top 10 in terms of GDP, with significant long-term growth potential. It's likely the hubs like SEA and BOS offset much of the network weakness with Amex spend.
If SEA performs well for DL internationally, why have they had trouble making the flights to Asia work? KIX, HKG, PEK were flown in the past but no longer. TPE was only restarted so they wouldn’t be completely left out with three other airlines operating the route.
I mean the China market overall has shrunk massively, especially US to China. There are flight cap restrictions, overall capacity is something like 14% of what it was pre-pandemic between UA and China, HKG/PEK aren't going to be restarted for those reasons.
KIX is something that UA themselves struggle at, even with the TPAC crown jewel SFO. No one is arguing that DL's SEA is the superior TPAC hub to SFO, just that it's actually...
I mean the China market overall has shrunk massively, especially US to China. There are flight cap restrictions, overall capacity is something like 14% of what it was pre-pandemic between UA and China, HKG/PEK aren't going to be restarted for those reasons.
KIX is something that UA themselves struggle at, even with the TPAC crown jewel SFO. No one is arguing that DL's SEA is the superior TPAC hub to SFO, just that it's actually a modestly sized operation that does alright. DL has the single worst performing US to Tokyo route with MSP-HND, 30% LFs on LAX-LHR that cause it to be axed and not a single yearround daily flight to Europe from LAX, yet you wouldn't see people clamoring about closing up shop at MSP or LAX.
SEA isn't some massive success for DL, but clearly there are merits to keeping it open. DL had a money pit in JFK decades ago, but continued growth and investment turned it around. Growing a hub takes time, SEA is clearly not the overnight success that everyone expects it should be.
"If SEA performs well for DL internationally, why have they had trouble making the flights to Asia work? KIX, HKG, PEK were flown in the past but no longer. TPE was only restarted so they wouldn’t be completely left out with three other airlines operating the route."
Delta never served Taipei from Seattle before. There was nothing for them to "restart" there.
Also, some of those routes were dumped 7 years or more ago,...
"If SEA performs well for DL internationally, why have they had trouble making the flights to Asia work? KIX, HKG, PEK were flown in the past but no longer. TPE was only restarted so they wouldn’t be completely left out with three other airlines operating the route."
Delta never served Taipei from Seattle before. There was nothing for them to "restart" there.
Also, some of those routes were dumped 7 years or more ago, under completely different market dynamics.
Also, why do you automatically assume it's just a Delta issue? American has a non joint-venture partner in Hong Kong, but still hasn't managed to return, while Cathay (who is not in a finance/cost sharing relationship with American) eats up former market share. In the time since Delta flew there, it's experienced social riots, some of the worst Covid restrictions, and lost boat-loads of international market share to Singapore, Taipei and Tokyo.
Similarly for Beijing. American has also not returned, and we've seen everyone from BA, to Qantas, to Lufthansa completely pull out of that market in recent years as well. But you think it's unique to Delta/Seattle somehow?
When I compare the list of hubs for UA versus DL, it's striking that UA has a "strong competitor" at DEN (Southwest, which tends to attract a different clientele) and ORD/SFO (AA, which has its own problems now), while DL faces AS (with strong local loyalty) in SEA and generally very competitive markets in JFK and LAX, plus possibly BOS. IAD would possibly be very competitive too, but government contract fares and the requirement for...
When I compare the list of hubs for UA versus DL, it's striking that UA has a "strong competitor" at DEN (Southwest, which tends to attract a different clientele) and ORD/SFO (AA, which has its own problems now), while DL faces AS (with strong local loyalty) in SEA and generally very competitive markets in JFK and LAX, plus possibly BOS. IAD would possibly be very competitive too, but government contract fares and the requirement for government employees and contractors to fly on USA carriers or codeshares weakens the competition at IAD substantially.
DL's strength has always been that it maintains higher share of the metro areas than AA or UA.
ATL, BOS, DTW, MSP, SLC and SEA are all single airport metros - for all practical purposes.
UA has high share at SFO, IAH, IAD and EWR - far higher than DL has at its coastal hubs. and yet DL's share of its coastal hubs continues to grow esp. in BOS, JFK and LGA.
Ben needed some page clicks while he (and I) are flying so here goes... I've got 5 more hours before I land.
For those who think I am fixated w/ United, Kirby has been fixated with other airlines his entire career.... and he desperately needs to be the center of the discussion and make everyone BELIEVE he is the smartest person in the room.
He also said at that same conference that back in...
Ben needed some page clicks while he (and I) are flying so here goes... I've got 5 more hours before I land.
For those who think I am fixated w/ United, Kirby has been fixated with other airlines his entire career.... and he desperately needs to be the center of the discussion and make everyone BELIEVE he is the smartest person in the room.
He also said at that same conference that back in the early 2010s while he was still at AA, the industry was only big for two premium carriers. DL was one of them and he desperately wanted AA to be the other other. 4 years later he was at UA and was convinced that UA could displace AA - which they clearly have done.
Kirby thinks he has more data than other airlines have about themselves - and yet UA continues to trail DL in profitability EVEN WHILE paying tens of thousands of employees less. DL even posted a higher net profit in the 3rd quarter last year after the Crowdstrike mess that DL said cost it $500 million. DO you really want to admit that you know so much but continue to come up short even with a billion dollar/year labor cost advantage?
Nick and Anthony's comments below are spot on.
and system profitability still comes down to putting ALL of the pieces together to come up w/ the biggest pie.
DL has ATL which is a money-printing machine. Nothing like it exists anywhere else in the world. It moves so many more passengers with so many more seats than any hub in the world - and does it from the lowest cost global hub in the world.
Quite frankly, yes, there IS a huge gap between DL's most profitable hub - ATL - and its less profitable hubs - but UA will NEVER have a hub of the size (nearly 1000 flights/day, 90% of which are mainline, scope (scores of flights to five continents), and efficiency (less than $4 per enplaned passenger).
The true hypocrisy of Kirby's comments is his endless drivel about how ULCCs can't afford to compete in high cost coastal hubs but then fails to note that ORD is the highest cost large connecting hub per enplaned passenger - 10X what DL pays in ATL, 5X what DL pays in DTW, MSP and SLC - and the rebuild of ORD terminal 2 into the global terminal will cause even more cost growth.
But UA is going to grow including to displace AA from ORD by capturing basic economy passengers. Is that the most bizarre set of realities that any company could come up with?
And the icing on the cake is that UA gets a couple billion per year less than DL and AA get from their credit card deals and UA's deal won't be up for renewal for several years. They will get a nice bump but then DL renews.
And DL will then be making $5 billion more in revenue per year (their stats, not mine) repairing GTF and LEAP engines.
UA will ALWAYS be looking at DL's backside while trash talking everyone else and still end up short.
and 2025 will be the year that UA's employees - ALL of them - want to be paid like DL employees.
we have the data and can recalculate UA's profitability after they shell out $400 million more in pay and another $500 million in profit sharing per year.
Your analysis of United’s structural disadvantages relative to Delta is largely correct, particularly in terms of labor cost asymmetries and the operational leverage derived from ATL’s uniquely efficient enplanement model. Delta’s hub-and-spoke system optimization at ATL, with its unparalleled mainline-to-regional ratio and cost-per-enplaned-passenger efficiencies, functions as a self-reinforcing profit engine that United structurally cannot replicate. Additionally, your point on Delta’s superior credit card monetization is critical—United’s Chase deal remains comparatively constrained by both renewal timing...
Your analysis of United’s structural disadvantages relative to Delta is largely correct, particularly in terms of labor cost asymmetries and the operational leverage derived from ATL’s uniquely efficient enplanement model. Delta’s hub-and-spoke system optimization at ATL, with its unparalleled mainline-to-regional ratio and cost-per-enplaned-passenger efficiencies, functions as a self-reinforcing profit engine that United structurally cannot replicate. Additionally, your point on Delta’s superior credit card monetization is critical—United’s Chase deal remains comparatively constrained by both renewal timing and aggregate transactional velocity, which exacerbates the airline’s loyalty program revenue gap.
However, there are a few underlying premises that merit a more nuanced examination. First, while you correctly highlight United’s reliance on ORD despite its prohibitive cost structure, it is reductive to frame this as purely a strategic liability. United’s presence at ORD isn’t an accident of legacy network design—it is a calibrated exposure to a premium O&D market that, despite cost disadvantages, generates above-benchmark yield elasticity in high-frequency corporate corridors. While ORD lacks the scale arbitrage of ATL, its premium-cabin RASM multipliers on transatlantic and transpacific routes—particularly in business-heavy corridors like FRA, LHR, and HND—should not be ignored. The redevelopment of Terminal 2 into the Global Terminal does present an escalating cost issue, but it also fortifies United’s competitive positioning in a critical long-haul gateway market.
Your point about Delta’s aircraft maintenance arbitrage via GTF and LEAP engine overhauls is well-taken, but this is a double-edged sword. Yes, Delta extracts revenue from MRO, but this operational dependency also creates a nonlinear exposure to the next-generation fleet transition curve, particularly as Pratt & Whitney’s GTF engine issues present a prolonged operational liability. Delta's revenue recapture via PBTH (power-by-the-hour) contracts partially mitigates this, but United’s CAPEX-intensive fleet refresh strategy—centered on MAX and 787 acquisitions—positions it for superior long-term fleet efficiency once these units scale into service at a lower net ownership cost per ASM.
On labor, you are absolutely right—United’s relative cost advantage is an unsustainable distortion that will be corrected, and the upcoming labor cost normalization will further erode its profit margins. However, dismissing United's strategy purely as "chasing Delta’s backside" oversimplifies the competitive calculus. United isn’t just imitating Delta’s network segmentation—it is executing a counter-positioning play that leans into high-density, lower-CASM configurations on transpacific routes where Delta’s premium-heavy approach lacks volume efficiency.
In sum, Delta’s structural advantages are undeniable, and United’s CEO rhetoric is often more aspirational than operationally grounded. But the reality is more complex: United’s network inefficiencies are partially offset by strategic yield targeting, and its fleet and loyalty program disadvantages have long-term mitigations that could narrow Delta’s lead. Whether these mitigations materialize before labor cost inflation erases the gains remains an open question—but it is not as deterministic as your argument suggests
"Your analysis of United’s structural disadvantages..."
You typed in a 461-word response in five minutes.
Gosh you're smart.
Willy raises a good point. How did you have that entire response ready to go, just 5 minutes after the initial comment from Tim went up?
@Mark
Because Tim Dunn constantly uses fake "guest" names to make it appear someone agrees with him when no one ever does.
julie,
you can't stand to admit that even robots know I am right.
whether Nick uses AI or not, he knows I am right or he wouldn't post it.
You can't or don't even contribute to the subject. You might check out (or into) any kind of intelligence yourself.
oooh Tim. Good comeback. Did you use chatGPT for that too?
I don't think Nick uses AI. I think you do and reply to yourself so it appears others think you're smart. Just so we're clear. ;)
This has to be AI. If not, I’m impressed
whether AI or not, it is accurate.
DL has all of the new generation engines in the US carrier fleet in its MRO portfolio except for the GEnx on the 787- which is actually due for a refresh or replacement in the next 10 years.
As for ORD, the irony of the statements is that DL's international presence at DTW is as large if not larger than UA at ORD - certainly to Asia -...
whether AI or not, it is accurate.
DL has all of the new generation engines in the US carrier fleet in its MRO portfolio except for the GEnx on the 787- which is actually due for a refresh or replacement in the next 10 years.
As for ORD, the irony of the statements is that DL's international presence at DTW is as large if not larger than UA at ORD - certainly to Asia - even though the DTW market is much smaller. Add in that DL has twin hubs at DTW and MSP that surround ORD and DL owns the Midwest so it is UA that is second tier in the region. UA's ORD hub can't survive on the ORD local market
# of international destinations in Summer '25: UA @ ORD: 35 DL @ DTW: 16
International (excluding Regional i.e., Canada, Mexico, and Caribbean) seat capacity in Summer '25: UA @ ORD: 35k; DL @ DTW: 25k
Regional seat capacity in Summer '25: UA @ ORD: 24k DL @ DTW: 9k
Great point Tim! DL's international presence is absolutely as large as if not larger than UA at ORD - NOT. Please look at some actual data before spouting off
you do realize there are 12 months in the year?
UA flies to precisely ONE destination in Asia while DL flies to 3 from DTW.
And again, DL has DTW and MSP on both sides of ORD.
It is actually UA that is well behind DL in the Midwest.
and you do realize that the biggest hit that is coming to N. America demand right now is to/from Canada? Not exactly great for the AC-UA partnershp.
Tim, you’re not making the point you’re trying to make.
You’re saying DL needs two hubs in smaller cities to equal UA’s one powerhouse Midwest hub. That’s not efficient. Just like DL needing two NYC airports to equal UA’s one mega hub in EWR.
Also, what do you think will happen when Russian airspace reopens and UA approaches a fleet size of 300 787s? UA international flying out of EWR, IAD, and ORD, already significant, will increase even more.
Of course DTW and MSP are smaller markets than Chicago.
But DL by far has the majority of the DTW and MSP market. UA divides Chicago with AA and WN and the other carriers including DL which serves both Chicago airports.
DL controls the Midwest. Based on Kirby's own logic about the 2nd and 3rd tier in a hub, UA is in sad shape in regions - and the same thing absolutely applies in regions...
Of course DTW and MSP are smaller markets than Chicago.
But DL by far has the majority of the DTW and MSP market. UA divides Chicago with AA and WN and the other carriers including DL which serves both Chicago airports.
DL controls the Midwest. Based on Kirby's own logic about the 2nd and 3rd tier in a hub, UA is in sad shape in regions - and the same thing absolutely applies in regions of the country.
DL OWNS the SE and Midwest. UA owns NO US regions. WN owns Texas.
You are the only one that thinks that UA will have a fleet of 300 787s, Mark. Even UA execs acknowledge they will have to start replacing widebodies soon.
and DL is STILL receiving more new widebodies than UA..... DL happens to be retiring older aircraft and gaining EVEN MORE efficiency - fuel and labor - in the int'l marketplace.
Having a massive fleet of widebodies is no benefit if a carrier has the least fuel efficient widebody fleet among major global airlines - and that is exactly the case with UA.
DL owns the SE? Huh? What about AA in CLT?
DL owns the Midwest? Huh? UA has the strongest and most efficient Midwest hub with ORD. You keep pointing out how DL needs multiple airports to compete with UA’s individual hubs. That’s a knock on DL, not UA.
Kirby never talked about regions. He talked about hubs and how hard it is to be number two.
That’s why DL struggles in SEA, relative to other hubs.
Mark,
tell us AA's SHARE of the SE compared to DL's.
tell us UA's share of the Midwest - not ORD.
DL is by far the largest carrier in the SE and the Midwest.
again, Kirby doesn't want to talk about regions because UA doesn't control any regions.
And yet the same principle applies to regions -which are nothing more than groups of cities - as apply to hubs.
DL plays chess while UA...
Mark,
tell us AA's SHARE of the SE compared to DL's.
tell us UA's share of the Midwest - not ORD.
DL is by far the largest carrier in the SE and the Midwest.
again, Kirby doesn't want to talk about regions because UA doesn't control any regions.
And yet the same principle applies to regions -which are nothing more than groups of cities - as apply to hubs.
DL plays chess while UA plays checkers.
And DL keeps growing SEA and making more money than UA.
Don't you wish UA had hubs and regions that were so profitable they could subsidize money-losing hubs?
You and Kirby's insecurity shows life dandruff on formal attire.
If UA was as good as you and Kirby think UA is, DL wouldn't have as big of a lead as it has.
Tim
Delta share in the SE in almost every market, except ATL, has been dropping vs AA for the last decade.
Go back to your drinks
Ya’ drunk
Let us know a state you'd like to know about in the SE, Tim.
I exclude NC and GA since they're both relatively owned by AA and DL.
But, Let's take the state of Alabama. Airports used are the ones AA and DL fly to: BHM, MGM, MOB, DHN, and HSV
In 2015, DL had 75% more flights than AA. 149% more seats. but 8% less ASM.
in 2025, DL has 25%...
Let us know a state you'd like to know about in the SE, Tim.
I exclude NC and GA since they're both relatively owned by AA and DL.
But, Let's take the state of Alabama. Airports used are the ones AA and DL fly to: BHM, MGM, MOB, DHN, and HSV
In 2015, DL had 75% more flights than AA. 149% more seats. but 8% less ASM.
in 2025, DL has 25% FEWER flights than AA, 13% more seats, and 50% fewer ASMs.
Need more? How about TN?
MEM, BNA, TYS, CHA
In 2015, DL had 18% more flights than AA, 46% more seats, and 1% more ASMs
in 2025, DL has 23% fewer flights than AA, 11% fewer seats, and 11% fewer ASMs.
"But MEM was a DL hub and AA has been larger than them forever and growing."
Ok. Let's make it a fair fight in TN. We'll exclude MEM.
BNA, TYS, CHA
In 2015, DL had 12% more flights than AA, 30% more seats, and 25% fewer ASMs
In 2025, DL has 24% FEWER flights than AA, 13% fewer Seats, and 12% fewer ASMs.
I won't hide data. Since 2015, AA is 226% larger in TN markets. DL is now 265% And this excludes AA partners like BA that fly to TN, unlike DL partners.
But sure, Tim. Please tell us how awesome DL is in the SE.
Give me a state outside of the hub states of NC and GA. I'll wait.
This is your problem, Tim. You live in a fantasy land that is not data-related. You hope things are true that are not and state things that as fact that are flat out wrong.
Delta does not dominate the SE. AA does. You're wrong about that just like you're wrong about your nonsensical NYC stats. United is only growing their share in NYC in 2025 vs Delta.
Even in Georgia, Delta is obviously bigger than AA. But their market share percent as dropped significantly vs AA.
Airports included: ATL, CSG, ALB, VLD, BQK, AGS, and SAV.
2015: DL had 2,351% more flights than AA.
2025. DL has 1,321% more flights vs AA.
2015: DL had 3,893% more ASMs than AA
2025: DL has 3,193% more ASMs vs AA
And AA doesn't do a single longhaul flight from...
Even in Georgia, Delta is obviously bigger than AA. But their market share percent as dropped significantly vs AA.
Airports included: ATL, CSG, ALB, VLD, BQK, AGS, and SAV.
2015: DL had 2,351% more flights than AA.
2025. DL has 1,321% more flights vs AA.
2015: DL had 3,893% more ASMs than AA
2025: DL has 3,193% more ASMs vs AA
And AA doesn't do a single longhaul flight from the state of Georgia so all the upgauging and everything longhaul from DL in ATL doesn't change that even in ASMs, DL share vs AA has dropped in the SE state of Georgia where DL should be able to protect some degree of market share given their size and that it's their home state.
Focus on facts, not fantasies, Tim.
as usual, Mark, you are clueless about what matters.
when you have to compare thousands of %, you lose.
The SE is about far more than GA.
DL carries far more people because they use larger planes.
90% of DL's flights at ATL are mainline. Tell us the statistic for AA at CLT but there is no AA or UA hub that comes even close to DL at ATL.
Any state in the SE, Tim. Name it.
But again. You know you're wrong so now you're talking about mainline flights in ATL?
DL has even lost significant market share to AA in their home state of Georgia. It's the same in every market in the SE. Just say you're wrong and move along.
"For those who think I am fixated w/ United..."
15 paragraphs later trying to show Tim is smarter than Scott Kirby...
When you're as rich as Scott Kirby, running an airline vs being the laughed-at bottom-dweller of the blog comment section, feel free to come back and talk s**t
rich doesn't make smart and it certainly doesn't give him any corner on wisdom, which is far different than intelligence.
I could care less what you and your crew of AA and UA failures think. Seriously.
None of which changes that all of Kirby's talk of how great UA is has yet to deliver bottom line results that beat DL - 7 years after he arrived at UA and even with a $1 billion/yr labor...
rich doesn't make smart and it certainly doesn't give him any corner on wisdom, which is far different than intelligence.
I could care less what you and your crew of AA and UA failures think. Seriously.
None of which changes that all of Kirby's talk of how great UA is has yet to deliver bottom line results that beat DL - 7 years after he arrived at UA and even with a $1 billion/yr labor cost advantage and a Crowdstrike nightmare that cost DL $500 million.
Kirby isn't HUMBLE enough to talk about why he consistently comes up short but when that happens, it will be THE real story.
@ Tim, "I could care less what you and your crew of AA and UA failures think. Seriously."
Feeling is mutual
@dtw
Drunk tim is always funny to see what he writes.
Today was ChatGPT today, it seems
Your assumptions are flattering. Try to avoid being upset at Tim, he is rather articulate and mostly correct in his responses.
@Nick And Tim Dunn, you're not fooling anyone with paragraph long responses to yourself in 4-5 minutes.
you (max) julie and others are beyond jealous that you can't put two cogent thoughts together in the presence of people who really understand the industry.
Sorry to disappoint, Tim and Nick. But you're welcome to reply with any data to back up literally ANYTHING you've stated as fact today.
the Southeast? Name a state you'd like to use to prove Delta's dominance in the SE.
NYC? United has more capacity there and it's only growing that lead vs DL in 2025
I can't speak for Julie, but I can assure you no one is jealous of you. Not even your fake usernames.
"DL has ATL which is a money-printing machine. Nothing like it exists anywhere else in the world."
Sure, except for the hub essentially just like it, about 2hrs' flight time to the west......
DFW is nowhere near in the same league as DL at ATL.
AA at DFW spends more than twice as much more passenger, operates 2/3 of the flights on mainline compared to 90% of mainline for DL at ATL, and carries far fewer passengers than DL at ATL.
AA at DFW is the next best thing to what DL has at ATL but it is nowhere near DL at ATL.
You left out IAD - which is increasing becoming profitable for UA. Lot's of new international flights being added.
IAD is going to take a big hit with DOGE and mass layoffs of the federal workers. Leisure spend will go down as DC takes a huge hit to employment. And direct spending by the feds on work travel is also declining a ton.
No it won't. It's packed and will be even more so.
To support Kirby's claim, all he needs is LAX to be profitable and he knows that answer. After that, both AA and DL have unprofitable hubs (AUS for DL and a few for AA). This is not about UA being unable to make their profitable at all hubs because DL is also profitable at LAX.
Delta regularly and rightfully claim to be the US's most profitable airline. They do not do that by being profitable...
To support Kirby's claim, all he needs is LAX to be profitable and he knows that answer. After that, both AA and DL have unprofitable hubs (AUS for DL and a few for AA). This is not about UA being unable to make their profitable at all hubs because DL is also profitable at LAX.
Delta regularly and rightfully claim to be the US's most profitable airline. They do not do that by being profitable at ALL their hubs.
Sun Country however is profitable at their only hub, MSP, as they are a profitable airline.
What about GUM and HNL? They're both hubs. I'm less certain about Tokyo since United is kind of split in half between NRT and HND...
Seems almost axiomatic tbh
Kirby’s hub profitability claim fails to incorporate second-order effects of premium cabin yield elasticity, disregarding how Delta structurally outperforms in high-margin corporate and luxury leisure segments—a space where United remains a commoditized, economy-heavy operator. United’s six-point spread is a static, rearward-looking metric that ignores yield curve convexity and premium cabin price insensitivity, while Delta’s EBITDAR arbitrage (16-18% vs. United’s 13-15%) and CASM ex-fuel efficiency (7.5-8.2¢ vs. United’s 8.5-9.1¢) reinforce its premium-tier pricing moat and operational...
Kirby’s hub profitability claim fails to incorporate second-order effects of premium cabin yield elasticity, disregarding how Delta structurally outperforms in high-margin corporate and luxury leisure segments—a space where United remains a commoditized, economy-heavy operator. United’s six-point spread is a static, rearward-looking metric that ignores yield curve convexity and premium cabin price insensitivity, while Delta’s EBITDAR arbitrage (16-18% vs. United’s 13-15%) and CASM ex-fuel efficiency (7.5-8.2¢ vs. United’s 8.5-9.1¢) reinforce its premium-tier pricing moat and operational capital efficiency.
Furthermore, Delta’s Seattle hub is a masterclass in stochastic capacity reallocation, functioning as a volatility-hedged trans-Pacific gateway that captures asymmetric high-yield corporate demand, while United remains trapped in a legacy network optimization model designed for bulk transport, not premium segmentation. Delta’s Amex co-branding synergy ($7B+ in 2023) isn’t just about revenue—it’s about creating a financially inclusive, rewards-driven ecosystem that empowers diverse customer demographics.
And let’s talk sustainability—while United makes performative SAF purchases, Delta is actively investing in carbon offset strategies that model long-term fleet transition viability under ESG constraints. Delta doesn’t just move passengers; it solves systemic inequities through targeted hiring initiatives and inclusive leadership pipelines, proving that profitability, sustainability, and social responsibility aren’t mutually exclusive—except, apparently, at United.
What on earth does this mean? Are you actually attributing delta's margins to race??
I put this through an AI detector and it came back as 85% confident.
Not sure if you're memeing or actually bot.
@Yolo
Yep. Tim Dunn's fake usernames at it again so he can reply to them.
He's done it for years. He seems to think no one noticesx
Worth noting that Tim also has previously bragged about using AI for his posts. Whether he does or not, who knows. He certainly seems to for his fake usernames like Nick
I’m not sure where you got that DL outperforms UA in premium revenue. UA’s premium cabins have always been larger than DL’s, and many of DL’s premium cabins are in 767s with an outdated product. UA also has hubs in the business centers of the country.
Premium customers in Chicago, Washington DC, and San Francisco all have nonstop options to other business and high-yield cities, when the DL customers have to connect.
DL...
I’m not sure where you got that DL outperforms UA in premium revenue. UA’s premium cabins have always been larger than DL’s, and many of DL’s premium cabins are in 767s with an outdated product. UA also has hubs in the business centers of the country.
Premium customers in Chicago, Washington DC, and San Francisco all have nonstop options to other business and high-yield cities, when the DL customers have to connect.
DL profits are significantly drawn from a higher number of fortress hubs than any other carrier. They not only dominate traffic in four hubs, but those four hubs don’t even have a competing airport across town. UA does not have a single hub without any other competition either at the airport or the other airport in the city.
DL gets fortress hub pricing in those cities, as well as the benefit of CPEs below $3 in ATL, the lowest costs of any large airport in the country.
Additionally, they get billions more than UA each year in credit card revenue, a tailwind UA will receive when their credit card agreement with Chase is renegotiated.
If DL really was chosen as a premium carrier above all others, they wouldn’t underperform in their hubs where they face competition, relative to their fortresses. They would be more dominant in BOS, SEA, and LAX.
mark,
size of the premium cabin is not the determinant of yield.
DL consistently gets higher yield per seat than UA even on a stage length adjusted basis
don't cherrypick ORD, IAD (3rd tier domestic airport in its metro) and SFO as if they are the end all and be all).
DL has an equally long if not longer list of major markets it serves including from JFK - the airport that UA's previous bosses walked away from and Kirby can't manage to get back to
masterclass.
And DL does own a nasty refinery because jet engines still burn dead dinosaurs. It helped DL save about 10 cents/gallon on a systemwide basis. and UA tried to copy DL's refinery strategy = but came up short.
all the talk about SEA and how much larger AS is fails to mention that DL outperforms AS in longhaul domestic (east coast) and international longhaul which AS doesn't fly. We heard that AS would launch...
masterclass.
And DL does own a nasty refinery because jet engines still burn dead dinosaurs. It helped DL save about 10 cents/gallon on a systemwide basis. and UA tried to copy DL's refinery strategy = but came up short.
all the talk about SEA and how much larger AS is fails to mention that DL outperforms AS in longhaul domestic (east coast) and international longhaul which AS doesn't fly. We heard that AS would launch NRT vs. DL (and others) HND and become the 5th or 6th carrier to ICN using aircraft that are inferior in cost and amenities to everything in the market.
Some people can't understand that DL doesn't need to operate the same number of flights to LAX or ANC because they do things that AS simply does not do and may never do on par w/ DL even if they actually try.
Let's also not forget that AS connects pax over SEA that DL connects over much more logical hubs; of course, AS has to have more flights to carry so much more domestic connecting traffic.
And AS' answer is to open another hub (or bullk up) PDX 200 miles away - which does nothing to solve the geography problem.
And as much as Kirby and everyone else loves to look down on SEA, it is still the 2nd largest US carrier hub to E. Asia and has a geographic advantage over every other US hub to Asia.
and another fact that gets left out is that NYC and LAX are DL's only two hubs that are in cities where there are multiple airports. By contrast, DEN is the only UA hub that is in a single airport city. IAD is the 3rd preferred airport for domestic travel in the Baltimore/Washington area.
and DLs financial health relative to AA and B6 - its LGA/JFK/BOS competitors - is far stronger than UA relative to WN.
And DL does own a nasty refinery because jet engines still burn dead dinosaurs. It helped DL save about 10 cents/gallon on a systemwide basis. and UA tried to copy DL's refinery strategy = but came up short.
all the talk about SEA and how much larger AS is fails to mention that DL outperforms AS in longhaul domestic (east coast) and international longhaul which AS doesn't fly. We heard that AS would launch NRT...
And DL does own a nasty refinery because jet engines still burn dead dinosaurs. It helped DL save about 10 cents/gallon on a systemwide basis. and UA tried to copy DL's refinery strategy = but came up short.
all the talk about SEA and how much larger AS is fails to mention that DL outperforms AS in longhaul domestic (east coast) and international longhaul which AS doesn't fly. We heard that AS would launch NRT vs. DL (and others) HND and become the 5th or 6th carrier to ICN using aircraft that are inferior in cost and amenities to everything in the market.
Some people can't understand that DL doesn't need to operate the same number of flights to LAX or ANC because they do things that AS simply does not do and may never do on par w/ DL even if they actually try.
Let's also not forget that AS connects pax over SEA that DL connects over much more logical hubs; of course, AS has to have more flights to carry so much more domestic connecting traffic.
And AS' answer is to open another hub (or bullk up) PDX 200 miles away - which does nothing to solve the geography problem.
And as much as Kirby and everyone else loves to look down on SEA, it is still the 2nd largest US carrier hub to E. Asia and has a geographic advantage over every other US hub to Asia.
and another fact that gets left out is that NYC and LAX are DL's only two hubs that are in cities where there are multiple airports. By contrast, DEN is the only UA hub that is in a single airport city. IAD is the 3rd preferred airport for domestic travel in the Baltimore/Washington area.
and DLs financial health relative to AA and B6 - its LGA/JFK/BOS competitors - is far stronger than UA relative to WN.
You forgot the IAD hub. I wonder how it will be affected by the government contraction. I assume most international travel for the government used United from IAD.
With fed firings and consultant contract terminations, I think the impact depends on the route. There are a lot of non-government business travelers traveling through IAD to connect, rather than originate/terminate at IAD. I assume GVA is at risk, given that it’s predominantly government-related pax. I think Cheeto’s tanking of the economy is likely to have a bigger impact, regardless of airport.
Nice take. I was told a similar store by an airline exec many years ago. He said that at a dominant hub, brand loyalty to the largest player and the fact a flyer might have the airline's CC allows the airline to raise prices. It's the pricing that's key. People will pay more for the dominant carrier, whereas in many industries the big guy squeezes the competition with low prices. And it's not based on...
Nice take. I was told a similar store by an airline exec many years ago. He said that at a dominant hub, brand loyalty to the largest player and the fact a flyer might have the airline's CC allows the airline to raise prices. It's the pricing that's key. People will pay more for the dominant carrier, whereas in many industries the big guy squeezes the competition with low prices. And it's not based on monopoly power but brand loyalty. The obviously doesn't always work (American).
Interesting point about how much less passenger and revenue traction the number two carrier in a hub gets.
Wonder what sort of implications this has for AA in ORD, WN in DEN, etc.
Most airlines that are number two in a market have much stronger positions in other hubs. Will we see airlines draw down the less dominant operations in order to further build up their positions of strength?
you do realize that UA has fewer flights from NYC than DL?
you do realize that IAD is the 3rd largest of the 3 WAS area airports for domestic travel?
and WN carried more local DEN passengers than UA for years. It has only been in the past few years that UA's share of the local DEN market overtook WN.
Be careful about sentencing the 2nd (and 3rd) tier airlines to a life of doom.
Look at you trying to make delta look bigger than United in New York again
In 2024, united had 21% more capacity than delta at the three NYC airports. United also had more seats in 2024. Flying an RJ to ALB and ORH is just slot squatting at LGA. Not something that makes delta more relevant to NYC customers.
In 2025, that capacity gap grows to 24%
Data really isn’t your strong suit. But noble attempt.
Tim, we’ve covered this. DL has more flights to cover roughly the same amount of passengers and 50% less cargo.
That speaks to DL’s smaller gauge and reliance on two airports, one of which is hamstrung by a perimeter rule, to equal UA’s powerhouse EWR hub, the best on the east coast.
And yes, WN used to have more local DEN traffic than UA carried. They don’t anymore. UA is bigger and is...
Tim, we’ve covered this. DL has more flights to cover roughly the same amount of passengers and 50% less cargo.
That speaks to DL’s smaller gauge and reliance on two airports, one of which is hamstrung by a perimeter rule, to equal UA’s powerhouse EWR hub, the best on the east coast.
And yes, WN used to have more local DEN traffic than UA carried. They don’t anymore. UA is bigger and is increasing their lead while WN is actually decreasing their flight counts in DEN.
So again, you’re making the point that UA has a winning strategy, as seen in many places but especially in DEN.
you and Max should get together.
UA and DL according to the Port Authority carry almost identical amounts of traffic from NYC's 3 airports.
You love to talk about the perimeter rule until someone AGAIN shows you that DL is the largest DOMESTIC airline in NYC by revenue and passengers.
UA flies to a bunch of places across the ocean on narrowbodies. That is simply a business Delta isn't interested in.
The fact that...
you and Max should get together.
UA and DL according to the Port Authority carry almost identical amounts of traffic from NYC's 3 airports.
You love to talk about the perimeter rule until someone AGAIN shows you that DL is the largest DOMESTIC airline in NYC by revenue and passengers.
UA flies to a bunch of places across the ocean on narrowbodies. That is simply a business Delta isn't interested in.
The fact that DL made far more money flying the Atlantic in 2024 than UA might explain why DL flies where it makes money and doesn't try to chase UA's claims to grandeur.
Tim, it's duly noted that you're provided with actual data on capacity and seats out of NYC and just choose to ignore capacity as the common measurement of size in the industry.
And again. United is growing its size vs Delta in NYC 25 vs 24.
Try again. Maybe sober up first.
You can't really compare IAD with DCA.
2 very different airports. DCA is a domestic airport while IAD serves the international markets. And for that, United is the king at IAD. Its actually a Star Alliance fortress.
Denver is both Southwest and United’s largest hub, is relatively low cost, and run neck and neck for local business - neither will retrench no matter how bad the economy at the risk of losing significant business to the other. (I hope - their competition keeps ticket prices relatively low for locals and is fueling the addition of 7th and 8th runways and 100 gates by 2045 by current plans).
If Kirby is allocating credit card revenue/profit on a hub by hub basis - and it sounds like he is -he may be somewhat right, but it makes his point kind of irrelevant if you ask me. Credit card revenue benefits the entire enterprise. Delta's hubs in BOS, NYC, SEA, LAX all likely generate a huge amount of credit card revenue that help subsidize flying in those hubs. And robust flying in those hubs help...
If Kirby is allocating credit card revenue/profit on a hub by hub basis - and it sounds like he is -he may be somewhat right, but it makes his point kind of irrelevant if you ask me. Credit card revenue benefits the entire enterprise. Delta's hubs in BOS, NYC, SEA, LAX all likely generate a huge amount of credit card revenue that help subsidize flying in those hubs. And robust flying in those hubs help Delta compete against other airlines and likely help them make schedules more attractive for their core hubs.
That makes a lot of sense. People forget that Delta is carried by their Amex partnership.
BOS/SEA/LAX/NYC spending power is much higher than those interior hubs and ATL. This actually seems so obvious that I wonder why people have never realized this.
really good point, Anthony
Seems Delta could leverage a Florida hub for its LATAM flying and be highly profitable down there. Much like UA in MCO and AA in MIA. However it seems like they are doubling down on multi-leg connections via the ATL fortress instead.
SEA, curious how that will work out with competition from Alaska/Hawaiian. Time will tell. Wonder how it compares to PDX during the NW Orient era. I assume BOS is slightly profitable and...
Seems Delta could leverage a Florida hub for its LATAM flying and be highly profitable down there. Much like UA in MCO and AA in MIA. However it seems like they are doubling down on multi-leg connections via the ATL fortress instead.
SEA, curious how that will work out with competition from Alaska/Hawaiian. Time will tell. Wonder how it compares to PDX during the NW Orient era. I assume BOS is slightly profitable and with B6 reducing its footprint, JFK/LGA will even more so.
I wonder if the other shoe will drop somewhere as when DL abandoned DFW, and less significantly, CVG.
I would think loyalty (people that fly regularly-at least once a month) is very hub based in those cities that are a hub for one of the Big 4. Naturally to get additional benefits they will get that airline's co-branded card. When you fly often you know the complications a connection can bring. While sometimes unavoidable, generally those not flying solely on the rock bottom fare want direct flights. A hub can do that. Being...
I would think loyalty (people that fly regularly-at least once a month) is very hub based in those cities that are a hub for one of the Big 4. Naturally to get additional benefits they will get that airline's co-branded card. When you fly often you know the complications a connection can bring. While sometimes unavoidable, generally those not flying solely on the rock bottom fare want direct flights. A hub can do that. Being Miami based I fly AA exclusively not because I think AA is better than UA and DL. But particularly in the summer time I don't want to deal with connections and if I have do a connection I know I need a minimum of 2.5 to 3 hours, wasting my time.
UA has strong hubs for the exception of Guam and maybe arguably IAD can be inferior to DCA for direct flights.
The major difference is CPE. Cranky did an analysis on this. UA has 4 of the top 5 highest CPE hubs in LAX, EWR, SFO, and ORD.
The revenue difference is there, but the CPE is the killer. UA hubs have as high as 10x to 15x CPE of ATL, and even the mid cost hubs like IAD, IAH, and DEN are still significantly higher than DL's interior hubs.
absolutely right.
and let's keep in mind that UA needs to grow its presence in the domestic market - and intends to do so by taking ULCC competitive fares. In hubs that are higher cost than AA, DL or WN - and only getting more costly as UA keeps building its hubs to grow their capacity.
It is the most laughable strategy possible from a carrier that is focused on closing the profitability gap w/ DL
Jealous, table for one....
There’s a big difference between “not profitable” and “least profitable.”
Which are you implying applies to SEA? I would say least profitable is likely, but Delta surely isn’t losing money there.
I'll bite. Why are you so sure SEA is profitable? It's quite a dogmatic statement when nothing about Delta's current market position would suggest profitability for any airline. Nor does any domestic fare data suggest profitability in SEA. And if the reply to that is "well, Asia"... yeah. I doubt it.
And that has nothing to do with Delta but everything to do with being the half the size of a loved hometown partner and...
I'll bite. Why are you so sure SEA is profitable? It's quite a dogmatic statement when nothing about Delta's current market position would suggest profitability for any airline. Nor does any domestic fare data suggest profitability in SEA. And if the reply to that is "well, Asia"... yeah. I doubt it.
And that has nothing to do with Delta but everything to do with being the half the size of a loved hometown partner and when that hometown airline has non-JV partners at all the major destinations from SEA (though that pales in comparison to the significant size and frequency disadvantage of DL in SEA)
and Keep in mind Scott Kirby doesn't think all DL hubs are profitable either and he has MUCH better data than all of us. He didn't specify SEA but... it isn't hard to imagine that's one of the ones alluded to.
DL just has a very suboptimal position in SEA. That's not a knock on Delta but they do.
I agree. I just get this deja vu with DL in SEA like they were in DFW. It seems like it's the same story. If DL had 2 flights a day out of DFW to a place, AA had 4. It's the same in SEA. If DL has 2, AS has 4.
And God only knows what's going to happen with AS's purchase of HA and its announcement they plan to build up to a...
I agree. I just get this deja vu with DL in SEA like they were in DFW. It seems like it's the same story. If DL had 2 flights a day out of DFW to a place, AA had 4. It's the same in SEA. If DL has 2, AS has 4.
And God only knows what's going to happen with AS's purchase of HA and its announcement they plan to build up to a dozen international markets. I doubt AS is going to drop a load of 787's into their noon bank and leave it at that. It only makes sense they will further fortress SEA.
Tbh, AS seems to be a victim of circumstance. They just absorbed a massively unprofitable HA, with boatloads of debt to finance. They've shrunk their LAX/SFO positions by up to 20ish percent since the VX acquistion as well.
This longhaul experiment for SEA is also not cooking. They are not filling up any of their cabins for NRT and have tiny premium cabins that are uncompetitive. I have strong doubts that ICN will actually materialize...
Tbh, AS seems to be a victim of circumstance. They just absorbed a massively unprofitable HA, with boatloads of debt to finance. They've shrunk their LAX/SFO positions by up to 20ish percent since the VX acquistion as well.
This longhaul experiment for SEA is also not cooking. They are not filling up any of their cabins for NRT and have tiny premium cabins that are uncompetitive. I have strong doubts that ICN will actually materialize as planned given that there's really only a few months left for them, and they're going to be the 4th carrier yet again competing against TPAC JVs.
AS leadership says Hawaiian legacy unit will be profitable in 2025 as some of the synergies (especially improved utilization and connectivity) come online. Hawaiian wasn’t some basket case airline, they were just limited by geography, scale, and circumstance with Japanese Yen exchange rate. Not to mention they acquired HA for a screamin deal (unlike VX)
I think DL will sustain the losses (or much lower profits) in SEA since they have no choice. It will be their primary west coast hub. Without it they only have LAX, where they have less than 20% of the market.
They have to keep SEA to maintain relevancy in a west coast market with only significant competitor, even if they are a distant number two there.
"Scott Kirby doesn't think all DL hubs are profitable either and he has MUCH better data than all of us."
Yet doesn't have DL's internal data, so while his claim might be less speculative than a man-on-the-street's, it's still very much only speculative.
and Scott Kirby still can't manage to beat DL's systemwide profitability despite having a $1 billion/year labor cost advantage.
Honestly, what good is all the data if UA can't beat DL?
Tim
If you are in flight, it’s easy to tell you started the wine course hours ago.
Speak to What you know. Labor advantage and disadvantage clearly isn’t one since United is entirely unionized and that creates enormous staffing inefficiencies for UA and AA vs delta.
it is precisely because UA is unionized that their employees are locked into lengthy fights to get higher pay.
Yes, UA has a major labor cost advantage to DL and everyone except you knows it.
UA's efficiencies compared to DL are far smaller than their wage rate differences.
sure, Tim. And you know that how? Yeah. You don't because just like everything else you just say random stuff with no idea what you're talking about.
@immortal
You’d be surprised how much internal info carriers have on each other. Far more than the dot public data
"You’d be surprised how much internal info carriers have on each other."
You sure seem prone to assuming what people (of all sorts) do/don't know.
Alas, the statement still stands. He does not have full financial data, and thus can do no more than speculate. Educated speculation, but still speculation nonetheless.
I wonder how UA's eighth hub that everyone forgets (GUM) is doing. Japan traffic is rough lately because of the exchange rate and they've been moving planes and crews to operate service from NRT to smaller Asian cities. Although I imagine lots of those GUM routes are subsidized by the US government/military. I flew GUM-NGO just over a year ago and was the only one in business, with fewer than 20 seats occupied in coach....
I wonder how UA's eighth hub that everyone forgets (GUM) is doing. Japan traffic is rough lately because of the exchange rate and they've been moving planes and crews to operate service from NRT to smaller Asian cities. Although I imagine lots of those GUM routes are subsidized by the US government/military. I flew GUM-NGO just over a year ago and was the only one in business, with fewer than 20 seats occupied in coach. Obviously GUM doesn't have a analog to any AA/DL hub since it's completely unique to UA, but interesting nonetheless.
The one route I can think of that is almost certainly subsidized is the Circle Mike route (HNL-MAJ-KWA-KSA-PNI-TKK-GUM). And I plan on flying it this year...finally.