Could Korean Air launch a nonstop flight between Seoul Incheon Airport (ICN) and Orlando International Airport (MCO)? Well, that’s what airport executives in Orlando seem to think, though I’m not holding my breath…
In this post:
Orlando wants a nonstop flight from South Korea
Orlando Business Journal reports on how the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority and Osceola County have signed a partnership agreement with Incheon International Airport, laying the groundwork for direct service between the two airports. This would be the first nonstop connection between North Asia and Florida.
The claim is that the parties are working to “finalize details of the flight, including the airline and when service will start.” Suffice it to say that those are some important things to iron out. For that matter, I’d say that phrasing is perhaps a bit overly optimistic. Presumably it’s more like they’re “working to see if any airline is interested in flying this route.”
There is an estimated passenger demand of around 150,000 people annually between Northeast Asia and Orlando. Meanwhile between Northeast Asia and Florida overall, that demand is around 350,000 people annually. This route wouldn’t just be about tourism, but also business, particularly when it comes to the semiconductor industry.
Here’s how Osceola County Commissioner Cheryl Grieb described this:
“Direct flights from South Korea to Orlando have long been a goal for our region, and this agreement brings us closer than ever to making that vision a reality. This connection will not only strengthen tourism but also business connections to position NeoCity as a global leader in semiconductor innovation, paving the way for greater economic opportunities and international collaboration.”
Meanwhile here’s what Incheon International Airport CEO Lee Hag-jae had to say:
“With our exciting partnership with Orlando International Airport and Osceola County in Florida, we will jointly embark on comprehensive efforts to establish the first-ever direct flight route from Asia to Orlando, thereby improving passenger convenience and promoting vibrant business and travel exchanges between South Korea and the United States.”
Could a Korean Air flight to Orlando become a reality?
As you can see, neither airport authority is naming the airline that could operate this service. Presumably if it were to become a reality, Korean Air would be the airline operating the route. After all, the airline just completed its takeover of Asiana, so it would be the logical carrier to operate the route, as Korea’s only major global player.
On the one hand, this doesn’t seem that outlandish. I mean, the “new” Korean Air has a lot of capacity to play with, and has flexibility, thanks to its acquisition of Asiana, and all the duplicate routes the airlines have.
With the Delta and Korean Air joint venture, it’s pretty clear that the goal is to offer as much one-stop connectivity as possible between points in the United States and points in Asia. Add in some government subsidies, an the math on this route might not be so bad (well, at least until the incentives run out).
That being said, I still wouldn’t count on this route becoming a reality. That’s not to say it couldn’t or won’t happen, but rather that I think it’s far from a sure bet. At over 7,500 miles, this would be an ultra long haul flight, and I just feel like there are other gaps in Korean Air’s route network that would make more sense.
Speaking of flights between Florida and North Asia, keep in mind that Miami has been working on attracting a nonstop Japan flight for many years. That has never come to fruition, despite the fact that Miami is arguably a bigger business market, and also a joint venture hub for Japan Airlines (American has a hub there).
So we’ll mark this as “developing” for now, but it sure seems like authorities are maybe a bit overconfident in terms of the prospect of this happening.
Bottom line
Airport authorities in Orlando and Seoul Incheon have signed an agreement that lays the groundwork for nonstop flights between the two airports. Now all they need is an airline willing to operate the service. While both parties seem confident that this will happen, I’m quite skeptical.
Presumably if an airline were to launch this route, it would be Korean Air. And in fairness, if there were a time for Korean Air to try a route like this, now would be the time, given the takeover of Asiana, the excess capacity, and the Delta joint venture. I still think it’s unlikely this becomes a reality, but you never know…
What do you make of the prospects of a nonstop Seoul Incheon to Orlando flight?
Makes little sense to me. Chief attactions in Orlando are the theme parks and they're replicated (or there are alternatives) in closer parts of Asia.
And in closer parts of the US, like California.
MCO is a low yield market. If MIA can't make it work, MCO can't as well. Not to mention the existing ATL-ICN 2x daily has already absorbed the demand.
Way too many generalizations, none of which are based in fact.
MCO has more demand to east Asia than MIA does, and a (slightly) higher average fare for both the Korean and Japanese markets (the only ones I have numbers for).
The fares for both, though, suck.
3 daily. (2 DL , 1 KR)
Air Premia?
I was about to post... Air Premia makes more sense since it is a hybrid LCC with a small premium economy cabin. The product seems to fit the Orlando market perfectly. Air Premia will start Hong Kong next week, and has already gotten daily flights to Tokyo Narita, Bangkok and Singapore. But then without a strong connection to Mainland China especially Beijing and Shanghai, Taiwan, Vietnam and other Japanese cities, it might not work. Anyway we will wait and see!
I'll believe it when I see it. IND airport made similar comments about nonstops to Japan.
But it will happen eventually. It is only a matter of time until Orlando got a nonstop to Asia. The market is very large.
Maybe send it to tpa not mco
Disney World magic kingdom was the most visited theme park in the world with 17.7 million visitors annually. Epcot center also at Disney World had 12 million visitors annually. Why not ?
This isn't going to happen. There are too few business travelers to justify such a long flight. Additionally, major Korean industries like automotive, consumer electronics, semiconductors, banking, food, and entertainment are not heavily represented in Orlando or Florida. The only strong industry connection between Florida and Korea is shipbuilding for cruise ships, but those operators are based in South Florida, not Orlando.
It makes sense. Will happen.
No one thought KE would fly to LAS. EK flies to MCO, so why not KE (especially with the sales arm of DL) in the mix.
DL might feel that the percentage of KE pax moving over ATL to MCO warrants a direct flight, which frees up seats to sell as connections across ATL through the network. ICN-MCO will grab traffic to/from other Asia points, and act as a connection...
It makes sense. Will happen.
No one thought KE would fly to LAS. EK flies to MCO, so why not KE (especially with the sales arm of DL) in the mix.
DL might feel that the percentage of KE pax moving over ATL to MCO warrants a direct flight, which frees up seats to sell as connections across ATL through the network. ICN-MCO will grab traffic to/from other Asia points, and act as a connection point south of MCO. Doesn't DL or Latam fly MCO-GRU? time everything right and it can work.
It's often forgotten that the US3 (if AA still has one) has a mighty sales force that is tremendously helpful to their alliance and JV partners.
Direct and non-stop are not the same thing but you seem to use them interchangeably. Obviously you know better.
It doesn't really matter here. While all directs aren't necessarily nonstop, all nonstops are direct. To interchange the two for a nonstop, isn't incorrect.
Would be neat to see KE operate a ICN-MCO-GRU flight, like they used to via LAX. LATAM will no longer need to operate their existing MCO-GRU flight then, so it could open up another route for them instead since DL has a JV with both, KE and LA.
Wishful thinking though
A stop in Mexico would make more sense if connecting traffic is the focus. Aeromexico is also a partner to KE. Monterey is a good place to offer onward connectivity to both US and MX domestic while warranting good range thanks to low altitude. Aeromexico already operates the ICN-MTY but connections to US are poor and onward connectivity to LATAM is abysmal.
Orlando generates more traffic to east and northeast Asia than Miami, and not by a small margin. This includes Japan, for whom MCO is the 2nd largest unserved US market by PDEW (after LAS).
Thus, not sure a comparison with Miami is founded. Miami's largest east(ern) Asian traffic (at least pre-covid) was to the Philippines, Hong Kong/Guangdong region. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, due to shipping.
The yields are absolute *trash* though,...
Orlando generates more traffic to east and northeast Asia than Miami, and not by a small margin. This includes Japan, for whom MCO is the 2nd largest unserved US market by PDEW (after LAS).
Thus, not sure a comparison with Miami is founded. Miami's largest east(ern) Asian traffic (at least pre-covid) was to the Philippines, Hong Kong/Guangdong region. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, due to shipping.
The yields are absolute *trash* though, on all the above. Hence why no carrier has ever yet bothered.
I should note that that wasn't always the case though.
The yields between Miami and Hong Kong used to be quite strong.... so much so that Cathay quite publicly inquired about the use of ULH A350s (not necessarily the A350-900ULR as we know it today) meant to connect HKG nonstop with MIA, back in the mid 2010s.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-01/cathay-interested-in-bigger-airbus-a350-to-reach-miami-non-stop
Unfortunately, the market began to chill significantly, even before the...
I should note that that wasn't always the case though.
The yields between Miami and Hong Kong used to be quite strong.... so much so that Cathay quite publicly inquired about the use of ULH A350s (not necessarily the A350-900ULR as we know it today) meant to connect HKG nonstop with MIA, back in the mid 2010s.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-01/cathay-interested-in-bigger-airbus-a350-to-reach-miami-non-stop
Unfortunately, the market began to chill significantly, even before the unrest in Hong Kong sent airline demand spiraling, so CX never further pursued it.
For readers not familiar with the area: MCO, Disney, and the city of Orlando are in Orange County. Osceola county is just to the south and is where this aspirational "Neocity" tech park is.
I appreciate this is likely a distant consideration but the Brightline Train from Miami to MCO (running every ~2 hours) would pick up pax all the way to MCO and is a far more enjoyable / efficient experience that a flight to MCO to connect. (Whilst I agree MIA appears to be the more obvious airport it does not have this this in reverse because the Brightline doesn't run to MIA and well... Disney has to be an attraction for the Koreans.
first, if MCO or any other US carrier non-hub city gains service to E. Asia, it confirms that ICN is the hub in Asia that will be able to support non-hub TPAC service.
Tokyo's divided airport strategy has resulted in no net new flights to either HND because of the tight restrictions on # of flights or to NRT because the local market has been siphoned off by enough HND flights.
Taiwanese carriers...
first, if MCO or any other US carrier non-hub city gains service to E. Asia, it confirms that ICN is the hub in Asia that will be able to support non-hub TPAC service.
Tokyo's divided airport strategy has resulted in no net new flights to either HND because of the tight restrictions on # of flights or to NRT because the local market has been siphoned off by enough HND flights.
Taiwanese carriers serve the major US gateways to Asia but are only starting to venture into US carrier hub airports like DFW and they have no JVs with US carriers unlike with Japan and S. Korea.
China capacity is severely limited.
Florida is a major part of the traffic from all DL hubs as well as on KE operated flights even from DL hubs such as LAX, JFK and BOS where DL does not currently operate flights. Both KE and DL know the value of E. Asia to Florida traffic.
also, although OZ is owned by KE now, it is not part of the DL JV and DL does not codeshare on those flights. There is a 2 year sunset on OZ's operation which started in December 2024.
When KE adds the OZ code to the DL JV or when that capacity is absorbed by KE for use elsewhere to the US, DL's capacity has to grow to offset OZ's capacity.
While current DL's pilot contract has a global production balance which essentially requires all DL JV partner growth to be matched by DL growth, DL is not going to be able to absorb KE's growth/OZ's current operation by adding more capacity to other cities outside of JVs because most of the world is covered by JVs for DL.
DL has been waiting for years to start JFK and LAX to ICN on its own metal; OZ flies both routes. It is possible that DL could take over the capacity that OZ flies which would allow KE to add flights to other destinations in the US. KE's 787s are the least costly aircraft in the DL/KE fleet so they would have an advantage in addition to KE's lower labor costs but DL still has to grow somewhere to offset what KE adds unless it adds capacity somewhere else in the world.
AUS and BNA are also begging for flights to Asia and have business ties with Asia that could generate higher yields than to Florida; Florida wins on volume but adding service will siphon off traffic from DL and KE's existing TPAC service as well as DL's US-Florida flights.
K
AUS's aviation authority publicly confirmed talks with DL/KE for an Asian nonstop, and stated that "talks are moving in the right direction," but that doesn't actually mean nor signify anything tangible.
BNA's traffic is almost entirely to Japan, particularly Nissan employees traveling to Yokohama and Tochigi, both of which are served internationally via Tokyo. Aside from that, it doesn't even have double-digit PDEW...
AUS's aviation authority publicly confirmed talks with DL/KE for an Asian nonstop, and stated that "talks are moving in the right direction," but that doesn't actually mean nor signify anything tangible.
BNA's traffic is almost entirely to Japan, particularly Nissan employees traveling to Yokohama and Tochigi, both of which are served internationally via Tokyo. Aside from that, it doesn't even have double-digit PDEW with a single Asian destination, even in regional Japan which is KE's shorthaul strength.
Therefore AUS wouldn't be much of a surprise, especially if DL continues to develop it as a regional connecting facility.
BNA would be a huge surprise, as it already has plenty of 1stop options to Tokyo, and no other Asian traffic to speak of; thus KE wouldn't really bring anything to the table there.
while I agree with you that AUS makes more sense than BNA, BNA does generate a fair amount of Asian traffic other than to Japan.
and, I will tell you and everyone else now that the non-hub cities that are waiting for service to Japan will be disappointed. Tokyo is a no-growth market because of the Japanese Tokyo airport strategy.
and AUS does have a pretty good chance of getting an ICN flight as part of DL's AUS buildup
MCO has very high O&D, at least domestically, it's the #2 behind LAX. That being said, I'm not sure how something like this would work out.
I just don't see Korean Air being very strong point of sale for MCO though. Most of the market is from MCO to Asia, rather than being the opposite, which means Delta has the stronger brand recognition.
However, to flip it again, Delta's operating costs are much higher than...
MCO has very high O&D, at least domestically, it's the #2 behind LAX. That being said, I'm not sure how something like this would work out.
I just don't see Korean Air being very strong point of sale for MCO though. Most of the market is from MCO to Asia, rather than being the opposite, which means Delta has the stronger brand recognition.
However, to flip it again, Delta's operating costs are much higher than KE, so it makes it less profitable for Delta to run such an operation.
Finally, MCO is indeed very high O&D, but also lacks connecting traffic to feed it properly. Both from an actual network standpoint, but also geographically. In the same way that West Coast hubs leave most of the TATL to the East Coast, the converse is also true for TPAC.
Still dreaming of an ANA or JAL flight from Atlanta to Tokyo, I don't even care if it's to Narita. I just want a direct flight to Japan without having to stop in another US city to get on a Japanese airline.
you and me both, I remember them making a similar announcement right before covid.
A LAS flight is more likely to occur before an ATL flight. LAS has far more O&D demand than ATL. JAL/ANA would also have no connecting feed at ATL either. And neither flight is that likely at this stage in time.
Interesting that SAN has JL svc to Tokyo daily and LAS does not. HHmmm.
It’s also telling that route survived the pandemic. It is operated by JL’s lowest capacity long haul aircraft (788) so possibly the tech/biomed traffic from SAN?
Long decades of economic struggle and weakening Yen is making less Japanese going after flashy stuffs, so LAS is likely to be out of radar for a while.
I just took multiple round-trip Delta flights between Tokyo and Atlanta. All the flights where big time empty. No demand!
SAN is 4x weekly by JAL, not daily. That speaks to how JAL is right-sizing the service for the market. Plus SAN has Alaska feed as well, but it is largely an O&D market.
CX was looking at a more capable A350 that can do Miami flights from Hong Kong years ago. And there were rumors going around back then with Miami replacing JFK from the Vancouver tag-on But we all know that ship has sailed.
https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/46738-cathay-pacific-weighs-up-a350-8000-potential
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-01/cathay-interested-in-bigger-airbus-a350-to-reach-miami-non-stop
And I recall years ago China Airlines wanting to start flights somewhere in Florida with Taiwanese officials making a visit.
CX was looking at a more capable A350 that can do Miami flights from Hong Kong years ago. And there were rumors going around back then with Miami replacing JFK from the Vancouver tag-on But we all know that ship has sailed.
https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/46738-cathay-pacific-weighs-up-a350-8000-potential
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-01/cathay-interested-in-bigger-airbus-a350-to-reach-miami-non-stop
And I recall years ago China Airlines wanting to start flights somewhere in Florida with Taiwanese officials making a visit.
I will say, when I flew KoreanAir First Class ICN-ATL, the entire rest of the cabin was connecting onwards to Orlando (as was much of the rest of the plane as the FA told me)
With Delta running like 20x daily ATL-MCO and 3x ATL-ICN, I think there’s absolutely a shot this could work out. Then JAL will run out of excuses not to try NRT-MIA lol
Why does it have to be Korean? Aren't T-way expanding all over the world?
EASY ANSWER: Because T'Way's longest ranged aircraft would crash about 200nm short of Orlando's runways, if they tried to fly ICN-MCO nonstop.
They do not have, nor will they currently be taking delivery of, anything that can physically fly the distance, with a typical passenger load.
That's interesting, hadn't realised that. They fly to BCN and I am pretty certain that they won't overfly Russia; not sure how many miles that works out to, but I do remember my ICN-HEL flight in '23 taking 14 hours or so as we had to fly out to Japan before heading North.
T’way will receive 777-300ER from KE so theoretically it would be possible to fly ICN-MCO directly.
They will be assigned to ICN-Europe route so this is just the theory…
@ Throwawayname @ A_Japanese -- Forgetting aircraft range, if T-Way were to launch flights to the United States, wouldn't it make the most sense for the airline to compete with Korean Air in the most competitive markets, like to Los Angeles?
I don't think it would be sensible for them to compete head-on in a market where the main competitor[s] will have a huge capacity advantage and the attendant ability to sell their product very cheaply, possibly even below cost, in order to keep new entrants away. But airlines have done far less sensible things in the past.
Los Angeles is obviously the largest market for T’way but also very well served by DL/KE JV.
Also they need to compete LCC Air Premia so I doubt T’way can serve LA profitably. Maybe SFO could be better choice as KE would be their sole competitor.
So the reason for this possibly not happening is that the route is just too far for this to make economic sense?
OMAAT amateur airline network planners, ENGAGE!
Could we maybe see Delta operate a route between MCO and ICN? Delta has been expanding its long haul presence from MCO lately, with the new LHR flight and the existing AMS flight both flown by A330neos certain times of the year. Delta also used to operate a 767 to GRU from MCO prior to the pandemic (and they don't need that now with their LATAM partnership). I don't think it's super likely, but I...
Could we maybe see Delta operate a route between MCO and ICN? Delta has been expanding its long haul presence from MCO lately, with the new LHR flight and the existing AMS flight both flown by A330neos certain times of the year. Delta also used to operate a 767 to GRU from MCO prior to the pandemic (and they don't need that now with their LATAM partnership). I don't think it's super likely, but I wouldn't rule it out completely either. Maybe Delta will take over the route in off-season?
Living in Orlando currently, I was caught off guard by this post. It's not completely crazy, and I could see it happen. But I do think the airport executives are a little too confident at the moment.
Delta operating it would be very unlikely for a few reasons. For one, they have a higher cost structure vs their JV partner Korean Air. The route is right around the max range for the A330 so they'd likely have to use an A350. Problem is Delta is retrofitting all of those planes to a 40J +40 Premium Select configuration with 275 total seats - that's a ton of premium seating for a route that...
Delta operating it would be very unlikely for a few reasons. For one, they have a higher cost structure vs their JV partner Korean Air. The route is right around the max range for the A330 so they'd likely have to use an A350. Problem is Delta is retrofitting all of those planes to a 40J +40 Premium Select configuration with 275 total seats - that's a ton of premium seating for a route that will be predominantly leisure. It's hard to see how this would be viable.
Korean Air along with its lower cost structure is getting more A350's from the Asiana merger that have 28J + 36 PE configuration with 311 total seats which would likely be the only viable plane to operate this (doubt there's a viable business case for a new A350 or A380 that Korean has in order). That likely would be the only viable chance for this route which I'm sure Delta would not mind.