Ultra low cost carriers in the United States have had a really tough few months. While travel demand in general has been strong, that demand has overwhelmingly been for long haul travel and for premium products, neither of which ultra low carriers can really capitalize on.
Frontier Airlines CEO Barry Biffle is a bright guy, and he recently stated that “you’ve got fuel, capacity and demand all headed in the wrong direction, we’re kind of the canary in the coal mine.” Well that’s certainly not something you want to hear an airline CEO say!
During Frontier Airlines’ recent Q3 2023 earnings call, Biffle made some interesting comments about how the airline will transform, as flagged by The Airline Observer.
In this post:
Frontier Airlines plans to become more modular airline
Frontier Airlines has plans to make significant changes to its business model, and become more like Ryanair and Wizz Air in Europe. Wait a second, isn’t Frontier already kind of like that, in terms of cramming in tons of seats, and charging for just about everything? Yes, indeed.
The way that Frontier plans to evolve and become more like European ultra low cost carriers is in the way that it builds its network. Currently, Frontier largely operates like the “big three” US carriers, in terms of cycling planes throughout its schedule and route network. A plane might fly a complicated multi-day pattern, spending every night in a different city.
By the spring of 2024, Frontier plans to build a significantly more modular network. The idea is that Frontier will base aircraft at specific airports, and then 90%+ of the time, those planes will fly back to the same base each night. This is similar to what you’ll find at most ultra low cost carriers in Europe. What’s the advantage of this?
- Frontier has had huge issues with operational reliability, and basing aircraft out of an airport helps with that; that’s because when there are irregular operations, a plane will currently get out of sequence, and then the operation struggles to recover, due to the domino effect of that
- By focusing more on having mini-hubs in many cities, Frontier hopes to get more market saturation, and get more people to apply for co-branded credit cards, and be loyal to the airline
- By operating most planes to and from the same airport every day, presumably there will also be some savings in terms of crewing costs, as crews will have fewer layovers
- By flying planes to the same bases every day, it will also help with maintenance costs, since maintenance can more reliably be performed overnight
Frontier has already been trying to build a more modular network, but the airline is saying that it hasn’t done enough, and this is what has caused huge reliability issues. For example, due to air traffic control and other delays, over one-third of aircraft don’t end up where they’re supposed to every night, and obviously that causes massive reliability issues.
Biffle is a really bright guy, and I think this strategy makes a lot of sense. Frontier wants to be the airline with the lowest unit costs and highest aircraft utilization, but that can’t come at the expense of operational reliability. Lack of operational reliability is one of the main reasons some people avoid Frontier. I think this is a big step in the right direction.
Frontier points out how Ryanair deals with major air traffic control issues in Europe, yet operates much more reliably.
Biffle expects demand to rebalance in 2024
Recently, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby predicted that ultra low cost carriers were in big trouble, because he felt that demand had shifted long term toward long haul travel and premium products, which ultra low cost carriers don’t offer.
Biffle has a different take on the situation. Biffle predicts that in 2024, demand patterns will normalize and industry capacity growth will moderate and rebalance across geographies. Biffle is betting that having the lowest unit costs is the key to long term success, and he expects Frontier to have the lowest unit cost per seat in the United States for years to come.
Biffle also argues that operating a high utilization, highly reliable airline, will be important to the carrier’s success. Of course that’s an area where Frontier has to prove itself, because historically the airline hasn’t been very operationally reliable.
Between Kirby and Biffle, who do I think is more in the right on this topic? A few thoughts:
- There are a lot of macroeconomic factors that could impact demand, and nobody knows for sure how that’s going to play out in the coming years
- The CEOs of the “big three” carriers tend to make some pretty bizarre claims at times that are consistently proven wrong, like former American CEO Doug Parker claiming the airline would never lose money again, so I tend to approach these claims with a lot of skepticism
- Kirby claims that the lowest margin airlines in the industry always end up having to make adjustments, and while that’s true, those airlines are only the lowest margin right now because of demand patterns; a lower cost structure with lower fares isn’t necessarily lower margin than a higher cost structure with higher fares
- I tend to agree with Biffle that there’s something to be said for having the lowest cost structure, and that over time, that leaves an airline well positioned
- If we have any sort of a serious recession and/or a decrease in international demand (which I could see happening, given the current conflicts in the world), the legacies, and in particular United, will be the worst positioned in the industry, given how heavily reliant their revenue is on long haul flights
- I tend to think that over time all demand patterns normalize, and I think the current level of international demand won’t be there forever, and many people will go back to more domestic travel
Bottom line
Some major changes are being planned for Frontier Airlines, given the rough position that ultra low cost carriers are in. By the spring of 2024, Frontier plans to become a more modular airline, with 90%+ of aircraft being based at a single airport. This should greatly help with operational reliability and controlling costs, both of which Frontier executives view as the key to the company’s success.
While legacy airline executives like Kirby think that ultra low cost carriers are in big trouble in the long run, I tend to be more in Biffle’s camp in thinking that demand will continue to evolve. Post-pandemic, we first saw huge demand for domestic travel, then for long haul international travel, and I think we’ll see a healthier mix in the future.
What do you make of Frontier’s plans to evolve?
My name is Renard Webb email address [email protected] I have a go wild pass expires February the 29th 2024 I have not used my past since I received it I try every way if possible to get in touch but seems like there's no getting in touch with a person and if I do they send me back to the website which gives me back to the website I like to extend my past or...
My name is Renard Webb email address [email protected] I have a go wild pass expires February the 29th 2024 I have not used my past since I received it I try every way if possible to get in touch but seems like there's no getting in touch with a person and if I do they send me back to the website which gives me back to the website I like to extend my past or get a refund due to the fact that I am now legally blind as of July which I purchased the ticket in June 2023 if you can pass this who can help me out thank you
Frontier is back at LAX. They left LAX in September 2021.
We have flown Frontier once & had no issues, it was a great experience. When I try to book for international vacations, just to Mexico, Dominican, & Jamaica, they always seem to arrive the next day at the destination & no one wants to travel with kids that long.
I just flew F9 yesterday (DEN-MSN) and it was flawless. $70 ticket. Fastest de-plane ever. We use F9 frequently for off-season travel. Zero issues. Use UA for the holiday rush. Minimal issues with great customer care. Maybe my wife and I haven't had a bad F9 experience because we don't expect much from F9 besides a safe trip? We use bags designed to hold exactly the limit or I'll just pay the $70/rt fee to check a full size bag.
Sounds ok sort of like southwest. But one needs to adjust all these add on fees. I know the president is trying to get a bill passed to help with this issue. I think twice about flying your airline because of ...it's not dependable.
Frontier has to offer more direct nonstop flight at convenient times like 7/8am and afternoon flights den to sna
".....due to air traffic control and other delays, over one-third of aircraft don’t end up where they’re supposed to every night."
Seriously, one-third of their flights?
No way!
As a Frontier employee and crewmember, I find that number a bit high
Imagine being such a horrible airline that being more like Ryanair seems like a goal to strive for.
Frontier is the worst airline in the world and I still wouldn't touch them even if they didn't constantly stand passengers overnight.
Was an AA frequent flyer for decades, always happy. Then also SWA with their terrific companion pass and awesome customer service, I'll call them the airline of "YES" you can.
That brings be to Frontier that we tried this year doing an all summer coast coast RV trip, and be able to come home every few weeks on the GWD pass. Completed 2 trips and walked away. I would call Frontier the airline of "NO"....
Was an AA frequent flyer for decades, always happy. Then also SWA with their terrific companion pass and awesome customer service, I'll call them the airline of "YES" you can.
That brings be to Frontier that we tried this year doing an all summer coast coast RV trip, and be able to come home every few weeks on the GWD pass. Completed 2 trips and walked away. I would call Frontier the airline of "NO". An observation! I think their marketing strategy is to provide pain, then use the afore mentioned pain to prove to you how much money they're saving you. Enter " wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole". Pain examples: App that works, some of the time, website works some of the time. No phone #. Lousy overnight flights. Frequent flight cancellations. No thanks. Threw away the last 2 scheduled trips, and went on AA and SWA.
How would this model of keeping the same planes on the same routes and increasing the number of bases (if that is defined by where planes - and crew overnight) affect the maintenance of the aircraft? I assumed that every plane returns to a major hub (like Denver) every week or so for regular maintenance by dedicated crews. Would f9 have to rent more hangar space and hire more maintenance crews with this model?
Ah yes, the same bright Biffle that fired 5 flight attendants after a passenger security breach with the person getting onto the plane….for catching it and delaying the flight
The one component missing here is the crew. Ryanair has crew bases where the planes are based. It keeps hotel costs down, similar to the Allegiant model and adds reliability. For Frontier's idea to work it would need to upend where its crews are based and that's unlikely to happen in just a few months.
Heard from an F9 ground handler this morning that they're going dark at certain stations in February to reposition crew. It's not reflected in the schedules yet, though.
Unfortunately, the writer of this piece didn’t fully reflect Kirby’s recent comments and facts. United has a basic fare that undercuts/matches Frontier’s fares on like routes. The back end of the aircraft, boarding group 5…no bags, is essentially a LCC fare. These passengers still get stays in United miles and can upgrade to economy plus for a fee on board. United will run the LCC out of business now that they have this low cost...
Unfortunately, the writer of this piece didn’t fully reflect Kirby’s recent comments and facts. United has a basic fare that undercuts/matches Frontier’s fares on like routes. The back end of the aircraft, boarding group 5…no bags, is essentially a LCC fare. These passengers still get stays in United miles and can upgrade to economy plus for a fee on board. United will run the LCC out of business now that they have this low cost carrier within a legacy carrier and not a separate product like TED that failed.
Okay...but revenue management strategy guarantees that Basic Y will always be limited, they will always wan to sell higher yielding fares...wheres an LCC sells the bulk of inventory at the lower level. So NO, they won't run the LCC's out of business.
If LCCs go "out of business", it is not going to be due to anything United or the other legacies do but rather larger macro issues with the economy. There are plenty of flyers who have flexibility and know exactly what they are getting with an ULLC and therefore have set their expectations accordingly. There is also a tangible upside to not connecting through ORD, ATL, etc. and getting to where you are going faster in addition to the low fare.
Cite your work…
Biffle could be really bright, or really the opposite.
They don't have the scale of Ryanair or EasyJet nor point to point demands like Europe.
I predict a Basic Economy price war coming to few airports just to drive those 90%+ morning hub flights unprofitable.
We all know how Kirby or his predecessor is.
One of the biggest grievances with Frontier is a lack of reliability. It's a crap shoot if you arrive at all, let alone on time. That's the current issue with Breeze; here today and gone tomorrow. Just ask Nashville, TN. Low fares only go so far!
The greatest margins are business customers. If the airline can prove that it delivers; treat customers like human beings; and provide true customer support; business customers will come.
One of the biggest grievances with Frontier is a lack of reliability. It's a crap shoot if you arrive at all, let alone on time. That's the current issue with Breeze; here today and gone tomorrow. Just ask Nashville, TN. Low fares only go so far!
The greatest margins are business customers. If the airline can prove that it delivers; treat customers like human beings; and provide true customer support; business customers will come.
When picking bases, pick towns with medium to small headquarters. Offer some form of reliable service to their production sites or processing plants. Throw in a free drink credit just to build the base and a block of tickets. It's time to move up the food chain!
With DL prices at ATL, there is always room for LCC or ULCC in this airport.. there has to be the same situation with any airport dominated by one of the 3 big carriers. As long as there is price conscious people (we are all when not traveling on somebodies' else dime) LCC will exist... they might come and go as the local monopolies fight on price, but they will come when the demand is oppressed by the monopoly.
I somewhat agree. I see the need for LCCs like SW and JetBlue as I see routes where JetBlue and SW have lowered the main cabin prices. But for me, whether I'm paying or my company is paying, I expect to get to my destination on time. I also usually don't have the time and energy to determine what the true cost of a ticket will be. As I believe that there will always be...
I somewhat agree. I see the need for LCCs like SW and JetBlue as I see routes where JetBlue and SW have lowered the main cabin prices. But for me, whether I'm paying or my company is paying, I expect to get to my destination on time. I also usually don't have the time and energy to determine what the true cost of a ticket will be. As I believe that there will always be a Greyhound, I think there will always be people who are willing to put up with the current mess of ULCC. It's just not for me.
Maybe I have a bad memory and also don't fly WN, but doesn't WN already have a large presence at ATL? But I understand your point, and it could be applied to several airports...MIA, IAD, CLT come to mind.
@Juan, speak for yourself. I may be slightly more cost-conscious when on my own dime, I do try to spend corporate money wisely too. Regardless, my cost consciousness is not going to ever get me to choose Southwest, Frontier or Spirit short of it being the only way to get out of town ahead of a hurricane with all the trains, cars and motorized scooters fully booked. AA flies a good number of DL's routes...
@Juan, speak for yourself. I may be slightly more cost-conscious when on my own dime, I do try to spend corporate money wisely too. Regardless, my cost consciousness is not going to ever get me to choose Southwest, Frontier or Spirit short of it being the only way to get out of town ahead of a hurricane with all the trains, cars and motorized scooters fully booked. AA flies a good number of DL's routes out of ATL at lower frequencies and if I have some flexibility, I'll sometimes fly AA to save money. But if I want to be confident of getting where I'm going on time, I'll fly DL instead.
Frontier absolutely needs to address their operation, and doing so would be an absolute step in the right direction. However, if they want to win over the people who currently avoid them, they also need to address their customer service. Providing no phone support isn’t acceptable for an airline- and, from what I’ve heard, the chat-based support leaves a lot to be desired (it was just about worthless when a friend of mine had to...
Frontier absolutely needs to address their operation, and doing so would be an absolute step in the right direction. However, if they want to win over the people who currently avoid them, they also need to address their customer service. Providing no phone support isn’t acceptable for an airline- and, from what I’ve heard, the chat-based support leaves a lot to be desired (it was just about worthless when a friend of mine had to contact them in an IRROPS situation). I also don’t hear stories of Allegiant and Spirit charging $99 at the gate for items that should be considered personal items.
Another example that Biffle only runs a company into the ground. He needs to care more about his employees and customers and less about putting the next dollar in his pocket. Take care of the above and the employees will work harder and the customers will come back if they feel valued as well
Because Spirit and Allegiant don’t give bounties for spotting slightly oversized personal items to their employees. And their employees are lazy so there is no reason for them to care
There was a time Frontier wanted to be like Jetblue. That failed.
Than it wanted to be like Spirit. Obviously not much success there either.
Now it wants to be like Ryanair.
Frontier has bases in ATL, CLE, DEN, DFW, LAS, MCO, MDW, MIA, PHX, TPA, and TTN. Considering their aircraft on order, I could see F9 opening bases in BWI, CVG, DTW, IAH, ONT, RDU, RSW, and SJU. Maybe an STL or ISP. While they have volume at SFO, I can't imagine the gate space there being cheap.
Legacy carriers likely already have bases (include maintenance hangars) in non-hub airports, e.g. LAS & MCO. Frontier does not have the scale of Ryanair, thus how can Frontier achieve parking 90% of her planes at bases at the end of the day?
outstanding summary of what ULCC (Frontier) intends to do and your conclusions of what that means, Ben.
Let's be clear that United needs the ULCC model to collapse in order for United Next - UA's massive fleet expenditure program ($35 billion MORE than any other airline) and growth to work. United specifically said that it would grow its share of basic economy - which is largely targeted at ultra low cost carrier markets -...
outstanding summary of what ULCC (Frontier) intends to do and your conclusions of what that means, Ben.
Let's be clear that United needs the ULCC model to collapse in order for United Next - UA's massive fleet expenditure program ($35 billion MORE than any other airline) and growth to work. United specifically said that it would grow its share of basic economy - which is largely targeted at ultra low cost carrier markets - in order to fill seats on all of the mainline aircraft UA is placing into the market including as replacements for RJs.
You are absolutely right that a high longhaul international strategy makes UA more vulnerable than any other carrier. There are a number of low cost longhaul carriers like Norwegian that didn't make it through covid and Chinese airlines are flying much less capacity to the US, but UA is making 20-25 aircraft purchase decisions on demand and a competitive environment that is very likely not to exist in 2 years.
The ULCCs and LCCs including Southwest will re-invent themselves and adapt. The notion that United is going to get all of the demand for years to come is pure fantasy.
WN particularly is much stronger financially and can fix its problems much faster than UA can get all of the resources it needs to grow as rapidly as it is now growing. Given that UA and WN overlap in more metro areas than any other legacy w/ any other carrier, UA's success is predicated on WN's failure - and it is simply a long shot to think that will happen.
I don't fly Ryanair in Europe or Frontier in the US; I do fly Easyjet in Europe if necessary and have decent experiences.
There are LCCs and ULCCs in other parts of the world that do an acceptable job.
Frontier will adapt; they can be thankful that JetBlue fought for Spirit and ULCC (the carrier) doesn't have to worry about a merger in addition to transforming itself.
I have flown Ryanair, Easyjet and Wizzair extensively in Europe - based on schedule and/or price. I prefer legacy carriers but low-costs often link city pairs that do not have direct flights on legacy carriers or any other flights at all. I generally find them reliable with the odd experience when things go wrong (in which case they often go horribly wrong). In the US, I wouldn't touch Spirit or Frontier with a stick (or...
I have flown Ryanair, Easyjet and Wizzair extensively in Europe - based on schedule and/or price. I prefer legacy carriers but low-costs often link city pairs that do not have direct flights on legacy carriers or any other flights at all. I generally find them reliable with the odd experience when things go wrong (in which case they often go horribly wrong). In the US, I wouldn't touch Spirit or Frontier with a stick (or even B6, which is an odd hybrid, unless it's a direct flight to the Caribbean that's not operated by anyone else). The operational reliability is horrible.
Southwest is not a really a LCC.
The ULCC model is absolutely in a precarious position at the moment. They need to grow to maintain low unit costs, but massive barriers to cheap growth exist currently...lack of pilots, lack of cheap aircraft, increasing fuel costs, infrastructure issues like ATC constraints. Certainly that can change at some point but will it be soon enough?
Skybus tried that way back in 2008 and that didn't work out for them. This is all sounds wonderful until you realize the amount of delays in the system realizing the number of planes stuck somewhere where it isn't suppose to be the next morning.
This is the Allegiant strategy. Allegiant has nearly 25 bases around the country and crews and airplanes fly out and back only from their base. This is a solid model because it reduces complexities and costs a ton.
How would it be advantageous if it costs a lot?
It reduces complexities and costs, I believe is how one should read that.
Allegiant does this model well. Yes, there are delays and when there are, sometimes they can be significant. But... in my experience flying Allegiant, when there is a big delay, you know about it far in advance and they usually commit to the time. If your 5pm flight is going to be delayed until 9pm, isn't it better to find that...
It reduces complexities and costs, I believe is how one should read that.
Allegiant does this model well. Yes, there are delays and when there are, sometimes they can be significant. But... in my experience flying Allegiant, when there is a big delay, you know about it far in advance and they usually commit to the time. If your 5pm flight is going to be delayed until 9pm, isn't it better to find that out at noon than when you're at the airport, especially if they hold to the new time?
There would be massive union issues to do this at Frontier... but Allegiant has/had part time flight attendants. It helps greatly with its highly seasonal flight schedule in some bases and gives a broader pool. How it worked at least a few years ago was that the part time flight attendants designated whichever days they wanted to work during the month (like a minimum of 4-5 days) and then the full timers bid on what is left.
Pretty hard to run an airline without pilots. ....
Taking notes from Allegiant- the little airline that many expected to collapse back in the day. In the midst of their maintenance / emergency landing snafu some 10 years back, they have- for the most part - had a fairly solid comeback and appear to be struggling the least of the El cheapos in the USA.
Aren’t Frontier and Wizzair owned by the same private equity group?
Yup, Indigo Partners.