Update: US officials are claiming (on the condition of anonymity) that Iranian missiles are responsible, and Iran even admitted it now.
My gosh, this is devastating news…
In this post:
UIA 737 crashes after takeoff in Iran
A Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 crashed early this morning, shortly after takeoff from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport, while bound for Kiev, Ukraine.
We are following reports that a Ukrainian 737-800 has crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran. #PS752 departed Tehran at 02:42UTC. Last ADS-B data received at 02:44UTC. https://t.co/qXWHUPGDTu pic.twitter.com/vuAi6TOqTp
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) January 8, 2020
The flight was operated by a three year old Boeing 737-800, with the registration code UR-PSR. Before anyone gets confused, the 737-800 is different than the 737 MAX. The -800 has been flying safely for many years, and is incredibly popular with airlines.
As of now details are limited, though we know that the plane crashed after takeoff. The ADS-B data from the flight shows a normal rate of climb and stable speeds, and then suddenly data stops as the plane climbs through about 8,000 feet or so.
The plane had about 180 passengers onboard (there are conflicting numbers), and Iran’s state media is reporting that there are no survivors.
A BBC Iran affairs correspondent claims that this is a video of the plane on fire:
#Breaking First footage of the Ukrainian airplane while on fire falling near #Tehran pic.twitter.com/kGxnBb7f1q
— Ali Hashem علي هاشم (@alihashem_tv) January 8, 2020
And these are reportedly pictures of the crash site, where not much seems to be left:
Pictures of what’s left of the Ukrainian plane’s wreckage, nothing much, according to Iranian media it’s very unlikely that anyone survived pic.twitter.com/4p81eRfJRW
— Ali Hashem علي هاشم (@alihashem_tv) January 8, 2020
This is all unverified as of now…
What the Iran angle means for all of this
I’m sure I’m not the only one who immediately wondered if there might be more to the story when I first heard about it, given what’s going on in Iran at the moment. With the recent death of Qassem Soleimani, and with this coming just hours after Iran has taken action against US military bases in Iraq, the timing sure makes you wonder.
Iran’s state media has immediately claimed that the plane crashed due to technical fault, which seems like quite a conclusion for them to draw so quickly. They are also saying that they’re going to be holding onto the black box for now.
It’s one thing if the plane had problems the second it took off, though at least the data so far shows a normal climb profile through about 8,000 feet and then suddenly stops, which does’t immediately suggest beyond a reasonable doubt that this was a technical fault (heck, it’s always too early to make a claim like that so quickly).
What complicates this significantly is that typically Boeing and NTSB representatives would immediately go to the crash site to assist with an investigation (this is a US-manufactured Boeing aircraft), though given relations between the US and Iran at the moment, one has to wonder if that will happen.
If it doesn’t happen, that sure would be unfortunate, because the one positive to come of aviation disasters is that each of them makes the industry safer, as something can be learned from each mistake.
I certainly hope this isn’t one of those accidents we don’t learn anything from, due to the party controlling the information and narrative.
For what it’s worth, in their Tweet about the incident, Boeing said that they are in contact with their “airline customer and stand by them in this difficult time,” and said that they’re “ready to assist in any way needed.” This certainly suggests a more passive approach than with past incidents, which isn’t too surprising given the complications.
This is a tragic event and our heartfelt thoughts are with the crew, passengers, and their families. We are in contact with our airline customer and stand by them in this difficult time. We are ready to assist in any way needed. pic.twitter.com/TsTlyY34Vd
— The Boeing Company (@Boeing) January 8, 2020
UIA cancels all flights to Tehran
Ukraine International Airlines has closed all reservations on their Tehran route effective immediately, meaning that they’re cutting the route. It’s very unusual for an airline to do this after an accident, so you can make of that what you’d like. Other airlines have also followed their lead.
Bottom line
First and foremost this is absolutely tragic, and my thoughts are with the families and friends of those onboard. We take airline safety more or less for granted, because it has become so safe, statistically.
So whenever something like this happens it’s just gut-wrenching.
I’ve flown UIA a few times (including on the 737-800), and they have a great safety record nowadays, as they’ve worked hard to modernize their fleet. The 737-800 I flew from Baku to Kiev a few years ago had the registration code UR-PSS, and it was the plane delivered immediately after the one that crashed today.
Something tells me this is going to be a really tough investigation, in terms of cooperation between authorities, and in terms of the sources from which we’ll get information.
It’s too early to know what happened, and in particular it seems too early for Iran to be claiming that the crash was due to a technical fault. The timing of this is obviously incredibly strange and suspicious, but coincidences do happen.
By January 11th, Iran officially was publicly acknowledging and apologizing about the tragedy as a case of the UIA plane being hit by one or more Iranian missiles due to some in its military misidentifying the plane as a hostile force.
There is verified video of a missile of sorts hitting the plane in Iran.
If the Iranian government would come clean on the matter and be transparent about this, explosives testing of sorts run on the remnants would be able for confirmation tests for a missile hit being involved.
Yup. Speculation by Ukrainian investigators - Shot down possibly by Russian made surface to air a la KLM flight.
Breaking News...
Pentagon official claims Ukrainian passenger plane 'was shot down by an Iranian anti-aircraft battery by mistake'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7868035/Ukrainian-airliner-TURNED-crashed-near-Tehran-killing-176.html
Hey guys,
As you don't live in Iran,please only follow reliable news not the fake news made by iranian government in which there are a lot of bullshit and lies.Why between these 200 countries,there are only problems with Iran?The answer is obvious.Because the government is not a good government.
Furthermore,this regime has killed a lot of intelligent and genius people in the bus accident or airplane crash.So we can't conclude that this accident(Ps752)...
Hey guys,
As you don't live in Iran,please only follow reliable news not the fake news made by iranian government in which there are a lot of bullshit and lies.Why between these 200 countries,there are only problems with Iran?The answer is obvious.Because the government is not a good government.
Furthermore,this regime has killed a lot of intelligent and genius people in the bus accident or airplane crash.So we can't conclude that this accident(Ps752) is only an accident.
Amir,
My issue isn’t with Soleimani being neutralized, even as I do credit him for being useful to the US in the fight against Al-Qaeda and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh types, but this US assassination of him wasn’t a great way of going about that. Are you a fan of risking an escalation in hostilities between the US and Iran when there is a sitting US President who publicly threatened to engage in war crimes against Iran? That’s...
Amir,
My issue isn’t with Soleimani being neutralized, even as I do credit him for being useful to the US in the fight against Al-Qaeda and ISIS/ISIL/Daesh types, but this US assassination of him wasn’t a great way of going about that. Are you a fan of risking an escalation in hostilities between the US and Iran when there is a sitting US President who publicly threatened to engage in war crimes against Iran? That’s what this assassination risked unleashing. Fortunately even your “mad mullahs” didn’t take the bait and instead engaged in a face-saving measure that included giving specific warning and took other steps to minimize US and allied forces’ personnel from getting harmed when Iran fired missiles at our (US) air bases in Iraq.
Isn’t Siamak MoreSadak still in the Iranian national parliament or is his seat empty? Last I knew, he was Jewish, publicly identified as such, and Iran still reserved a minimum of one seat for the Iranian Jewish community in its parliament even as there are now way more Iranian Jews in California (and in the UK, and in Israel) than there are in Iran.
Being an ethnic and/or religious minority is not great in Iran and is rather lousy at that there, but if you look at the world at large and it’s not so pretty in a lot of places, even in places that are openly democratic in a way that Iran isn’t and hasn’t been since at least the 1950s.
An iranian here among all others:
1- As a rule of thumb, don´t trust anything the iranian state media, or its gazillion affiliates tells you. Its not up to the standard of NK reaching world cup finals in soccer, but its close. Really close. Always lies. Dont trust BBC persia either. It acts as the fifth column of the islamic republic, spreading the same propaganda but always a little bit milder. As an example the...
An iranian here among all others:
1- As a rule of thumb, don´t trust anything the iranian state media, or its gazillion affiliates tells you. Its not up to the standard of NK reaching world cup finals in soccer, but its close. Really close. Always lies. Dont trust BBC persia either. It acts as the fifth column of the islamic republic, spreading the same propaganda but always a little bit milder. As an example the IR news sites keeps claiming that they have successfully killed 80 american soldiers during last nights attacks. They also claim to have hit 20 targets with only 15 missiles!!!!! Never mind that last night those same agencies were claiming to have launched 35 missiles. Here is a brief video that shows one of the old footages that was used last night:
https://twitter.com/freedommesenger/status/1214894909574057984
2- Islamic Republic president, just a few days ago, right after Mr. Trump had threatened to hit 52 targets, made a peculiar statement. He said "don't forget #290. IR655"
https://twitter.com/HassanRouhani/status/1214236608196685824
A hint: IR (not Iran, islamic Republic) has a long history of playing the victims card.
3- Anti-riot!!!!! police have been deployed to the crash site.
https://twitter.com/Sanam_banooo/status/1214986104497197056
And the regime is refusing to hand over the black box as mentioned by Lucky. Considering these its difficult to come to a 100% conclusion. Never the less, there are some indications. Its up to you to make up your own mind.
4- Remains of what seem to be anti-aircraft missiles used by the IRCG (who are responsible for the anti-aircraft unit near the int. airport) have been found near the crash site.
https://twitter.com/gregreese/status/1215018703852646401
Grafic indications of what could be sharpnel hits on the wing and fuselage of the aircraft:
https://twitter.com/REGIME_CHANGE1/status/1215082334199914496
https://twitter.com/freedommesenger/status/1214892105522466817
Witness accounts indicating that the aircraft was on fire during its plunge. That debris were scattered over a large area and they also seem to be praising the pilots for avoiding nearby houses:
https://twitter.com/hashtag/سقوط_هواپیمای_اوکراینی?src=hashtag_click
The actual crash as recorded by a saftey camera:
https://twitter.com/amir_forouhar/status/1215026376769708034
The crash recorded by an amateur camera while driving on the road:
https://twitter.com/freedommesenger/status/1214991033337032709
Right after the crash:
https://twitter.com/euronews_pe/status/1214869900067508224
@GuWonder
“ Unlike the US, Iran has no significant leadership publicly calling for a ban on Buddhists or Christians or Hindus or Jews or Muslims or Sikhs or Zoroastrians from coming there. ”
Really? I’m from Iran and no one dares to say he/she is a jew. And there are lots of minorities in jail simply because of their religion. Not to mentions all the political prisoners.
By the way, your hero, Soleimani, is responsible...
@GuWonder
“ Unlike the US, Iran has no significant leadership publicly calling for a ban on Buddhists or Christians or Hindus or Jews or Muslims or Sikhs or Zoroastrians from coming there. ”
Really? I’m from Iran and no one dares to say he/she is a jew. And there are lots of minorities in jail simply because of their religion. Not to mentions all the political prisoners.
By the way, your hero, Soleimani, is responsible for killing 1500 protesters in Iran, as well as 1000s in Iraq. You try to sound clever but you’re just a sheep misinformed by propaganda.
دم ترامپ گرم
@GuWonder,
What did you think of the jokes?
Max,
I don’t take moolah from mullahs and never would from governments like that. And whether anyone else does or doesn’t take Iranian money, an assassination is still an assassination.
While I understand that Trumpistas don’t necessarily care about facts being acknowledged as facts when they find it inconvenient and prefer “alternative facts”, I find that an assassination is an assassination as a matter of fact. ;)
“This Ukrainian flight going down in Iran” is how that was to be corrected for typos.
Between the US assassination of Soleimani, the Iranian’s measured (and pre-notified) retaliation against two US airbases in Iraq and this Ukrainian going down in Iraq, talk of Trump impeachment has become the casualty in the US and talk about Iranian protesters being killed by the Iranian Government has become the casualty in Iran . Talk about “wag the dog” in Washington and Tehran.
This happened at incredibly unfortunate timing. RIP to passengers and crew
Me and @Endre only fly paid first class on the world's best airlines so there was zero chance either one of us would have been on that flight. The rest of you can relax, no need to worry about us.
Not really. I just noted it's nothing unusual. US-Iran relations are not the best since 1979 and why would they now all of a sudden send one of the most important parts to the US?
From their point of view that's probably completely unthinkable.
@Thomas, I simply noted the action. You can, and seem to have, drawn your own conclusions about it.
Everyone else can do likewise.
Reaper: Why should they give the blackbox to Boeing? I'd be surprised if they did this once since 1979.
They are not North Korea, the Ukrainians will investigate with them and you can't hide a SAM hit to investigators.
The truth will come out sooner or later
I don't believe in a SAM btw. There have to happen too many stupid mistakes for it to be true. SAM commanders don't usually fire on any unidentified target especially not near civilian airports when there's no war on.
BBK, when you talk about genocidal terrorists, do you include the current Burmese government and Chinese governments in that category?
The Iranian Government is many bad things but being genocidal terrorists is not their calling as there are neither ethnic nor religious groups which they are trying to wipe out. Iran is not what it used to be, given it’s a (not-so-popular even within Iran) theocracy, but Persians in Iran — and even the Persian...
BBK, when you talk about genocidal terrorists, do you include the current Burmese government and Chinese governments in that category?
The Iranian Government is many bad things but being genocidal terrorists is not their calling as there are neither ethnic nor religious groups which they are trying to wipe out. Iran is not what it used to be, given it’s a (not-so-popular even within Iran) theocracy, but Persians in Iran — and even the Persian mullahs — still pride themselves of being part of a multiethnic and welcoming nation that has various religious groups within it and hosts large numbers of refugees too. Unlike the US, Iran has no significant leadership publicly calling for a ban on Buddhists or Christians or Hindus or Jews or Muslims or Sikhs or Zoroastrians from coming there. Not exactly the sign of being genocidal terrorists.
Despite too much Persian and Arab animosity toward each another and despite the US-supported Iraqi war on Iran during the 1980s, some
anti-Iranians still say that Iran has still not contributed to as much death and cultural destruction across Arab-majority regions as the US government has.
Reading just released info, the ADS-B data from PS752 stopped abruptly, reinforcing the most common-sense presumption that it was shot down.
What D. Lebowski said, just plain common sense and no doubt the absolute most probable cause..
As with the other comments, damn! the insanity level of the new generation gives me the shivers.
It's now a proven fact that the unhinged left will go to the lengths of defending a genocidal terrorist.
Iran not giving up the black boxes.
https://nypost.com/2020/01/08/iran-officials-refuse-to-give-us-black-boxes-from-crashed-ukrainian-plane/
@Rob,
01100010 01101100 01101111 01110111 01101101 01100101
LOL @ Max if he thinks he is being witty in his responses. Lack of self awareness is astounding even for internet standards.
Apparently the Iranian government wasn't the only one that said it crashed due to technical issues. The Ukrainian government had websites up saying the same thing, but they've since had such saying removed. Since then, this is what the Ukrainian President wants:
a check of the whole UIA fleet; and
a criminal investigation.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-ukraine-investigations/ukraine-to-test-airworthiness-of-entire-civilian-fleet-after-iran-crash-president-idUSKBN1Z715S
Apparently the Iranian government wasn't the only one that said it crashed due to technical issues. The Ukrainian government had websites up saying the same thing, but they've since had such saying removed. Since then, this is what the Ukrainian President wants:
a check of the whole UIA fleet; and
a criminal investigation.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash-ukraine-investigations/ukraine-to-test-airworthiness-of-entire-civilian-fleet-after-iran-crash-president-idUSKBN1Z715S
The fact that the Iranian Government said it crashed due to techincal issues within 8 minutes is extremely suspicious.
Im not saying it was shot down, but that seems a lot what could have happened in the video.
Jay,
Here are your words:
"Assuming my understanding is accurate, then Iran would be within their rights to assassinate the head of CENTCOM or Trump or anyone else from any other country if they thought that would prevent an imminent attack on Iranian people, assets, or whatever"
At least most of the 63 Canadians were Iranian dual-citizens, and the norm is for host/home countries to not recognize the foreign citizenship status and related claims of foreign sovereigns when it comes to their own dual-citizens. In large part this is why there are reports of 140+ Iranian citizens on the plane while other reports cap the Iranian citizenship count in the 80s and Canadians at 63.
I would hope that Iran goes along...
At least most of the 63 Canadians were Iranian dual-citizens, and the norm is for host/home countries to not recognize the foreign citizenship status and related claims of foreign sovereigns when it comes to their own dual-citizens. In large part this is why there are reports of 140+ Iranian citizens on the plane while other reports cap the Iranian citizenship count in the 80s and Canadians at 63.
I would hope that Iran goes along with the international norms for how plane disasters are to be handled and doesn't obstruct and obfuscate in this area, but I don't even hold out much hope for truth and transparency from my own country's government under Trump. I expect even less from the Iranian government, but I will say that in previous aviation incidents the Iranian government has been more hospitable than many would have expected it to be.
"If you were consistent in your approach, you would say that such an assassination against those kind of US military persons in Iraq would not be a crime. And you seem to have said just that. "
I said no such thing. I was interpreting my very light knowledge of the relevant international law, and how it would not be a crime for Iran, or any other country, to take out targets the way Trump...
"If you were consistent in your approach, you would say that such an assassination against those kind of US military persons in Iraq would not be a crime. And you seem to have said just that. "
I said no such thing. I was interpreting my very light knowledge of the relevant international law, and how it would not be a crime for Iran, or any other country, to take out targets the way Trump justified Soleimani. You're putting words into my mouth. But just because you can do something, even within legal standards, doesn't mean you should. And I am no fan of Trump, for the record.
With 63 Canadians dead, I would hope that the Canada Transport Safety Board and RCMP would be extremely interested in what happened.
Australia and the Netherlands set a precedent in the Malaysia Airlines missile shoot down over the Ukraine which ended as a full criminal investigation.
But then again, the Canadians are not exactly in Irans good books after the American embassy hostage crisis.
Jay,
Trump admitted to a desire to commit war crimes by targeting Iranian cultural sites and even mentioned a specific count of Iranian targets he has plans to attack. What would you say "if the Iranians assassinated the head of US Central Command or the US Commander-in-Chief when they’ve been in Iraq" and said that Trump or the head of USCENTCOM had "planned imminent attacks that would kill innocent civilians (and I believe other targets...
Jay,
Trump admitted to a desire to commit war crimes by targeting Iranian cultural sites and even mentioned a specific count of Iranian targets he has plans to attack. What would you say "if the Iranians assassinated the head of US Central Command or the US Commander-in-Chief when they’ve been in Iraq" and said that Trump or the head of USCENTCOM had "planned imminent attacks that would kill innocent civilians (and I believe other targets are included as well)"? Would you say that same international law permits the killing of said US official without any sort of advanced notice?
If you were consistent in your approach, you would say that such an assassination against those kind of US military persons in Iraq would not be a crime. And you seem to have said just that. I say that such assassination is wrong and that it would remain wrong whether done against Iran or against the US when not in a declared war against one another.
Does Trump's tweeting count as solid evidence of his favorable disposition to engage in war crimes and excuse war crime activity? Sometimes reasonable people have to take the public rantings of an angry loose-cannon public figure such as Trump as being representative of what the angry loose-cannon public figure has planned and is willing and able to do. My bet is that evidence against Trump doesn't really matter to most Trumpistas and that even to the Trump critics such an assassination of a US senior military command personality would be grounds to escalate conflict regardless of the evidence against Trump.
Alex,
I'm inclined to think this was a ground-based projectile or projectile sequence that went after the plane engine and then caused it to burst into being a sort of controlled fireball for a period of time.
The Iranians have put together their own indigenous anti-aircraft defense systems into the mix of their plane-attacking capabilities, and some of those and some of their foreign-sourced ones had computerized systems on target for being hacked before. This...
Alex,
I'm inclined to think this was a ground-based projectile or projectile sequence that went after the plane engine and then caused it to burst into being a sort of controlled fireball for a period of time.
The Iranians have put together their own indigenous anti-aircraft defense systems into the mix of their plane-attacking capabilities, and some of those and some of their foreign-sourced ones had computerized systems on target for being hacked before. This doesn't mean that hacking was the driver behind this incident, as human operator error of sorts (especially a a time of heightened alert) is a possibility with military systems of sorts regardless of the susceptibility level to hacking.
"Tim,
Would you say the same thing if the Iranians assassinated the head of US Central Command or the US Commander-in-Chief when they’ve been in Iraq?"
@GUWonder As I very poorly understand whatever the relevant international law is pertaining to this, if someone (Soleimani in this example) were planning imminent attacks that would kill innocent civilians (and I believe other targets are included as well), that same international law permits the killing of said someone...
"Tim,
Would you say the same thing if the Iranians assassinated the head of US Central Command or the US Commander-in-Chief when they’ve been in Iraq?"
@GUWonder As I very poorly understand whatever the relevant international law is pertaining to this, if someone (Soleimani in this example) were planning imminent attacks that would kill innocent civilians (and I believe other targets are included as well), that same international law permits the killing of said someone without any sort of advanced notice and such (as Trump didn't notify Iraq in advance, or even Congress). This appears to be Trump's claim, however fake/false you or anyone believes it to be, but if it's true then Soleimani's assassination was not a crime.
Assuming my understanding is accurate, then Iran would be within their rights to assassinate the head of CENTCOM or Trump or anyone else from any other country if they thought that would prevent an imminent attack on Iranian people, assets, or whatever; and for what it's worth I'm not sure Trump's threat to bomb culturally significant sites fits the bill here. But if they did that, they better be quick to present solid evidence before the US military drops the hammer on them.
@Jeff: Unlike many aviation bloggers, Lucky does *not* normally post the registration of an aircraft he flies on in his trip reports. But he notes it down nevertheless.
@Alex. It is not obvious to me that the plane was shot down. Pan Am at Lockerby was not shot down. Who benefits from a bomb on a plane from a country at war with Russia? What country has friendly relations with Iran that might permit such a clandestine operation? When would be the best time to carry it out?
Iran would be in another breach of international conventions if Boeing were not allowed to participate in the investigation as the airline manufacturer for the plane in this incident. But given US sanctions against Iran apply even to US parties doing business with Iran, Boeing probably can't do much of anything unless and until the Trump Administration grants Boeing various waivers to engage in the investigation on the ground in Iran.
Will,
Comments in the...
Iran would be in another breach of international conventions if Boeing were not allowed to participate in the investigation as the airline manufacturer for the plane in this incident. But given US sanctions against Iran apply even to US parties doing business with Iran, Boeing probably can't do much of anything unless and until the Trump Administration grants Boeing various waivers to engage in the investigation on the ground in Iran.
Will,
Comments in the blog are good for business. :D
147 of the passengers on this flight were Iranian citizens according to the Iranian government. While I don't trust the Iranian government to be honest about this situation at this time, I have no doubt that this too means that most of the Canadian and European citizens on the plane were Iranian dual-citizens in an era where getting rid of citizenship is not necessarily so easy for all.
I think the investigation situation will be interesting here. As Lucky noted, usually NTSB and Boeing get involved.. but it's Iran. At the same time, the injured party is Ukrainian Airlines. If this had crashed in Ukraine, NTSB and Boeing would be involved, Can Ukrainian request their involvement? Would Iran allow it?
@GUWonder,
OMG...that's not the line I was referring to. I was talking about 'hook line and sinker'. Lol. I think your username is accurate as I wonder if you can comprehend any of this.
As for Trump, when did I say I was a fan of his? I'd ask what's wrong with you but you're too emotional to get the joke.
Ta ta TDS boy.
I wish comments were closed for many posts.
Endre,
The plane had controlled turns even after the plane looked like a fireball in the sky. Something happened to cause the fire, but the plane didn't explode and fall to the ground immediately upon becoming a fireball.
The jetfuel caught on fire at some point. The question is what caused it to catch on fire. Heat-seeking projectiles going for the engine is to be expected; and once an engine gets hit, a...
Endre,
The plane had controlled turns even after the plane looked like a fireball in the sky. Something happened to cause the fire, but the plane didn't explode and fall to the ground immediately upon becoming a fireball.
The jetfuel caught on fire at some point. The question is what caused it to catch on fire. Heat-seeking projectiles going for the engine is to be expected; and once an engine gets hit, a full tank of jetfuel may be yet another nail in the coffin.
I would expect that the Iranians still have heat-seeking anti-aircraft defenses around the airport. Are some of those surface-based anti-aircraft systems subject to being hacked? At least in some other cases, they have been. ;)
Max,
I'm not in the business of providing you your needed remedial reading lessons, but anyone with any proper reading skills would understand that I didn't borrow your line. "US Commander-in-Chief or Trump’s favorite general" was a phrase used by me for a reason. ;)
Of course this phrase of mine doesn't rule out that Trump is so narcissistic that maybe he is his own favorite general, but that isn't why I used the phrase:...
Max,
I'm not in the business of providing you your needed remedial reading lessons, but anyone with any proper reading skills would understand that I didn't borrow your line. "US Commander-in-Chief or Trump’s favorite general" was a phrase used by me for a reason. ;)
Of course this phrase of mine doesn't rule out that Trump is so narcissistic that maybe he is his own favorite general, but that isn't why I used the phrase: "US Commander-in-Chief or Trump’s favorite general". ;)
I know full well what Soleimani's formal role was in the Iranian military and with the Iranian government. I also know full well that Soleimani wasn't the head of state or government. The point of juxtaposing US Commander in Chief or Trump's favorite general with the assassinated general Soleimani seems to have been lost on you, but the point involves the fact that senior military personalities can be targeted in legitimate ways or illegitimate ways and yet Trump went with a very risky, non-productive, illegitimate way and then doubled down on his illegitimate ways by explicitly espousing war criminal activity against Iran inside Iran itself.
My suggestion to all fellow Americans -- in or out of US military uniform -- is to never engage in war crimes -- not even when ordered to do so by the US CINC/POTUS, not even if potentially in line for a pardon/clemency of sort from the US CINC/POTUS.
I don't expect you, Max, to offer the same suggestions as I do. You, Max, seem to be a fan of a war crimes-lover who repeatedly used lame -- and probably illegal -- excuses to avoid the US military draft. That draft-dodging, war crimes-lover is unfortunately the current US President -- the Commander-in-Chief who has spent over a fifth of his days as President on golf courses and/or at his own Trump-related private properties while lashing out near and far against any and all who don't kiss up to him.
"Khoodahafez" to you, Max, the war-crimes-supporting-lover.
Tim,
Would you say the same thing if the Iranians assassinated the head of US Central Command or the US Commander-in-Chief when they've been in Iraq?
Obviously the plane was shot down. The speculation that the United States could have done it is absolutely ridiculous - even if it was a F-14 the US is not going to shoot anything down right outside of the Tehran Airport right now, even by accident. It had to be a mistake by the Iranians.
@GUWonder, Iraq is an active combat zone. The killing was justified and in accordance with internationally accepted rules.
"I certainly hope this isn’t one of those accidents we don’t learn anything from, due to the party controlling the information and narrative."
On the contrary, we can learn plenty about what happened based on the way the party is controlling the information....
I just watched the video of the fireball falling into ground. That is clearly an Exploded aircraft. I m not saying It was shot down, but clearly it Exploded at 8000 feet.
I don't k now if it was AGL or MSL 8000.
@GUWonder,
Geez, you even used my line. Can't come up with your own witty remark?
Again, the US Commander in Chief is in charge of all of the US armed forces. Soliemani was one General in the Iranian regime. Within the Iran, the IRG has five branches; Navy, Aerospace Force, Ground Forces and the Quds Force (special forces). Soliemani was in charge of Quds only, hence not a good comparison to President Trump.
@GUWonder
I agree with that assessment 100%
Max,
Since Trump is the commander in chief and acts as the senior military official in such capacity, my post's comparing two very senior military personalities for the purposes of talking about the problems with assassination of senior military personalities was done to draw you out as an unlawful violence-espousing hypocrite at best or just a lover of unlawful violence in general. You took the bait, hook, line and sinker. Fish for breakfast, lunch and...
Max,
Since Trump is the commander in chief and acts as the senior military official in such capacity, my post's comparing two very senior military personalities for the purposes of talking about the problems with assassination of senior military personalities was done to draw you out as an unlawful violence-espousing hypocrite at best or just a lover of unlawful violence in general. You took the bait, hook, line and sinker. Fish for breakfast, lunch and dinner when you're as you are. ;)
Ben L,
Even the Iranian missile attacks on the two US airbases in Iraq within the past 24 hours seem to have been done in such a way as to minimize the chance of US military casualties in Iraq from those Iranian missile attacks on US military bases in Iraq. Missile attacks on a military base at night time -- especially when the base is on high alert -- is not prime time to produce...
Ben L,
Even the Iranian missile attacks on the two US airbases in Iraq within the past 24 hours seem to have been done in such a way as to minimize the chance of US military casualties in Iraq from those Iranian missile attacks on US military bases in Iraq. Missile attacks on a military base at night time -- especially when the base is on high alert -- is not prime time to produce maximum casualties on the airbases.
And technically, after an act of war by one side -- and the US has engaged in at least two acts of war against Iran in recent days -- a military strike on the other's side military assets or even command structure is not a war crime even as it is not good for de-escalation.
The Iranians can't be so stupid as to think they have much to gain from a full-frontal military assault, so their missile attacks in Iraq were just a proverbial Iranian slap in Trump's face at a time when the Iranian government is stuck in a corner trying to placate its own public's call for revenge for the US assassination and would risk getting toppled if the moderates or even hardliners look too weak within Iran to the Iranian public.
@GUWonder,
Hook line and sinker!!! I can't believe someone was that dumb that fast but you proved me wrong, lol. Thanks for taking the bait.
Also, the US Commander in Chief is the President Trump so comparing him with general Soliemani is silly and just further proves how ridiculous you sound.
It was a plane full of mostly Iranians and people of Iranian-origin or part of a family with Iranian-origin persons. That would hold true for most of the Canadians on the plane and probably most of the Swedes and other European passengers (i.e. non-crew) on the plane.
There were 10 Swedes on the plane. I would be very surprised if I'm more than two degrees of separation from at least one of the Swedes who were on this UIA plane.
A plane full of Canadians, Iranians and Ukrainians and a few Europeans. Seems very suspicious - let’s see how this plays out. Russia shot a passenger plane and not a damn thing happened to them.
@Santastico
GUWonder and Ben L. pretty much answered it for me.
While I might find the whole timing and such very suspect. The Iran's state Media statement is not a wrong concussion to come to as they did have a "technical fault" which did cause the plane to go down. Now what kind of technical fault is the question to be asked as they didn't say if it was mechanical, operational, outside influence or act of God....
Chances are all we will ever know is there was a techincial fault.
Santastico asks why Iran wouldn't immediately blame the United States if they had evidence of a US attack.
Isn't it obvious that the Iranians have been conducting themselves in a much more measured and cautious manner than the United States over the past few years? Just because the US is conducting foreign policy by Twitter and military action by whim doesn't mean that other countries are similarly rash.
The absence of publicly available evidence at...
Santastico asks why Iran wouldn't immediately blame the United States if they had evidence of a US attack.
Isn't it obvious that the Iranians have been conducting themselves in a much more measured and cautious manner than the United States over the past few years? Just because the US is conducting foreign policy by Twitter and military action by whim doesn't mean that other countries are similarly rash.
The absence of publicly available evidence at this early juncture does not indicate the state of privately known evidence one way or the other.
Governmental-assassination of senior military general or commander in a civilian setting in a third country when not in a declared war is a questionable act under international law and was murder under Iraqi law at least.
What would Max say if the Iranians assassinated the US Commander-in-Chief or Trump's favorite general for being a terrorist just after the US Commander-in-Chief espoused a desire to engage in war crimes against Iran, had committed murder in Iraq...
Governmental-assassination of senior military general or commander in a civilian setting in a third country when not in a declared war is a questionable act under international law and was murder under Iraqi law at least.
What would Max say if the Iranians assassinated the US Commander-in-Chief or Trump's favorite general for being a terrorist just after the US Commander-in-Chief espoused a desire to engage in war crimes against Iran, had committed murder in Iraq and (defended a murder/murderer/war criminal who committed an atrocity) in Iraq? Would Max hope that the Iranians murder more such US "terrorists" espousing war crimes? If Max were consistent in his morality, then Max would even be a defender of Iran doing much what Trump did, even if it meant Trump or Trump's favorite general were murdered by the Iranians in Iraq or anywhere else.
I would hope these clowns could all be less violent than they are, but people like Max have their equivalents in Iran, and so violence just begets violence using any and every excuse under the sun.
Regarding the investigation (or lack thereof), WaPo has a good take here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/08/after-boeing-crash-near-tehran-who-will-investigate/
@jeff I thought the same thing. Lucky, do you record all the registrations when you fly? I flew a few Ukraine international 737-800 flights in 2018 and was wondering in a macabre way whether I had been on this one
The passenger list has mostly Iranians on it. Over 80 Iranians on board. Most of the 60+ Canadians were of Iranian-origin or related to such persons. The 11 Ukrainians were mostly UIA crew. The 10 Swedes on it were also of Iranian-origin or related to such persons. A couple of Afghans on it (as Iran is a major host of Afghan refugees and they come to/from Iran to visit relatives even as they live in...
The passenger list has mostly Iranians on it. Over 80 Iranians on board. Most of the 60+ Canadians were of Iranian-origin or related to such persons. The 11 Ukrainians were mostly UIA crew. The 10 Swedes on it were also of Iranian-origin or related to such persons. A couple of Afghans on it (as Iran is a major host of Afghan refugees and they come to/from Iran to visit relatives even as they live in Europe or North America), a couple of Germans and a couple of Brits. I would expect that 90%+ of the non-Ukrainians on this plane are of Iranian-origin or related to Iranian-origin persons.
@the Vandal,
"I guess you meant to say “with the recent murder of Qassem Soleimani by Americans that constitutes a war crime under international law”
I hope we 'murder' a lot more terrorists!!!
Let’s see the passenger list and we might have some more clues as to what happened.
Hey American guys don't consider iranian government as innocent.This accident is very very suspicious and it should be ingestigated more.Therefore,don't judge it immediately and wait a little.
@Julia: so you are saying Iran is so stupid and their systems are so obsolete that US could launch a missile from another country and Iran could not detect it going through its airspace? Also, don’t you think if that was the case they would immediately tell the world they had been attacked by a US missile and that the US hit a commercial airplane rather than coming very quickly to say it was a...
@Julia: so you are saying Iran is so stupid and their systems are so obsolete that US could launch a missile from another country and Iran could not detect it going through its airspace? Also, don’t you think if that was the case they would immediately tell the world they had been attacked by a US missile and that the US hit a commercial airplane rather than coming very quickly to say it was a mechanical fault? Why would Iran not blame the US immediately if that was the case?
@Brian L. @Santastico
Nothing the US government is capable of surprises me. Plus, what Ben L. said.
America has a longer track record of shooting down airliners in Iranian airspace than Iran does
@Julia: Wow!!! How smart of you to come with that idea. So the US launched a missile into Iran from another country and it went undetected through Iranian airspace until it hit an Ukrainian airplane just taking off from Tehran? Have Santa Claus already come through your chimney yet or is he running late? You are watching too much of Jason Bourne.
@Julia - “ Or a trigger happy American one?“
Do you really think there could be an American anti-aircraft unit near Tehran airport without anyone noticing?
"With the recent death of Qassem Soleimani"
I guess you meant to say "with the recent murder of Qassem Soleimani by Americans that constitutes a war crime under international law"?
Reported by Routes Online, Ukraine Airlines have cancelled all future flights to Tehran with immediate effect. Suggests they don't think it was a technical fault.
Lucky, do you keep a log with all the registrations numbers of the flights you take? It's impressive that you know the exact UIA plane you flew.
"I have no proof of this at all but my gut says, given the timing, a trigger happy Iranian anti-aircraft or other military unit is responsible for this."
Or a trigger happy American one?
"In the mainstream media there have been reports speculating that ‘nervous’ soldiers manning air defense weapons in and around Tehran might have shot it down. "
What mainstream media? They need to calm down first, speculate less, and wait till...
"I have no proof of this at all but my gut says, given the timing, a trigger happy Iranian anti-aircraft or other military unit is responsible for this."
Or a trigger happy American one?
"In the mainstream media there have been reports speculating that ‘nervous’ soldiers manning air defense weapons in and around Tehran might have shot it down. "
What mainstream media? They need to calm down first, speculate less, and wait till there is more information...
"Especially if these air defense artillery units are operated by the Revolutionary Guard then their fanaticism could have triggered this calamity."
Does you @ss ever get jealous of the sh*t that comes out of your mouth?
I just love it when the internet suddenly becomes an NTSB expert.
Soon we will have dozens of military experts.
Up until this day many people still believes CIA covered up TWA800.
How many people actually seen a real SAM or MANPADS in action.
For all we know, CIA could have terminated someone operative or cargo on that flight and blame Iran for it. Next thing you know a justifiable Trump invasion...
I just love it when the internet suddenly becomes an NTSB expert.
Soon we will have dozens of military experts.
Up until this day many people still believes CIA covered up TWA800.
How many people actually seen a real SAM or MANPADS in action.
For all we know, CIA could have terminated someone operative or cargo on that flight and blame Iran for it. Next thing you know a justifiable Trump invasion of Iran. Then US occupies their oil fields and place some dummy in charge who will revolt 20 years from now only to be taken down again by US for (allegedly) having WMD. Time for a new playbook.
Probably a tragic mistake made by Iranian SAM missiles, the same happened with a Siberia Airlines plane over Ukraine and the Iranian Airbus the US navy shot down in the 1980es.
I have no proof of this at all but my gut says, given the timing, a trigger happy Iranian anti-aircraft or other military unit is responsible for this. The video of the aircraft on fire as it falls, along with it breaking up in mid-air as evidenced by pieces coming off the plane at the beginning of the video and the secondary explosion right before impact indicate some time of external combustion event like an...
I have no proof of this at all but my gut says, given the timing, a trigger happy Iranian anti-aircraft or other military unit is responsible for this. The video of the aircraft on fire as it falls, along with it breaking up in mid-air as evidenced by pieces coming off the plane at the beginning of the video and the secondary explosion right before impact indicate some time of external combustion event like an explosion severely damaging the aircraft's structural integrity before impact. It would also explain the sudden loss of data at 8,000 ft, the lack of a fuselage or other wreckage, and the quick Iranian conclusion that it was due to a "technical fault". Just my 2 cents though. My thoughts and prayers go out to those who were victims of this horrible event and their families.
@Nargiza There was a delay due to technical reasons prior to the crash, so the issue might affect the sad end.
Best article on this topic so far! Agree that it's too early for Iran to be claiming so confidently that the crash was due to a technical issue.
You may wish to check your spelling Ben - coincides - should be coincidences
RIP!