OneWorld to announce new airline member on October 8… could it be Qatar Airways?

Because Qatar joining would probably be the worst possible outcome for OneWorld as it currently stands, and bad news is more common than good news, it probably is Qatar. Why can’t the Big 3 of Oneworld get together and coordinate their code-sharing efforts? I am not talking about something that is an anti-trust violation, just code-sharing. Here are the problems with Qatar joining that many of you have already pointed out. Qantas and Emirates vs. Air Berlin/Etihad and Air France vs. IAG/AA and Qatar. This poses a serious foundational conflict throughout the alliance. The problems for OneWorld if QF leaves are obvious so I won’t spend much time there. As bad of a hub as Abu Dhabi might be, Emirates does fly to DFW now and they would probably make the most sense. And at the very least that would leave Air Berlin/Etihad and Air France as the only odd combination. But While AB is not a huge carrier like IAG/AF/LH, they fill a very big void for OneWorld, especially the airlines other than IAG. OneWorld has a very big hole in Central Europe after the collapse of Malev. Star and SkyTeam are huge there and OneWorld is tiny. S7 is not the answer with the strict Russian visa requirements. Who would want to connect there and risk being stranded without a visa, if such a transit is even allowed? OneWorld needs Air Berlin badly. I am sure IAG would be very happy to be OneWorld’s sole European airline, they after all blocked Swiss from entering and sent them to LH’s waiting arms. Swiss would have been perfect but that opportunity is long gone unless LH decides to sell their interest. Perhaps OneWorld could siphon off a carrier from South Central Europe but I doubt they would find them appealing. I flew Tarom and found their service to be quite good. I am really surprised that the EU allowed SkyTeam and Star to get so big in Central Europe but they did and there is probably no going back now. If OneWorld loses AB and QF they will have serious problems in Australia and Central Europe. Personally, I think Etihad makes the best sense for all with their growth spurt about to kick into high gear, but with an apparent Sky Team deal in the works, I don’t see that happening. Maybe the best that OneWorld can hope for is an anti-trust block by the EU should Air Berlin try to join Sky Team. FYI, IAG does do some limited code sharing, especially IB, with some carriers from other alliances, but I would expect those arrangements to decrease as IAG grows. The one thing I am certain about is that the 3 big Gulf Airlines pairing up with different OneWorld players will cause a lot more problems than it will solve. a 3-way split would be the worst thing they could do. Why can’t they put more thought into this while there is still time? Maybe they tried with Etihad and Etihad simply wants to go to Sky Team. They might not have control over that, but surely something could be done about BA and QF going in different directions. Their growing distance from each other really puzzles me.

How about one of the Indian carriers.......Air India, Jet ?

@wwk5d just an announcement that they will join on a particular date... who knows.

@Lantean They are both scheduled to join by 2013, so what would the announcement be, anyway? They are not joining?

The Qatar CEO says no, it's not them: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/30/us-qatarairways-oneworld-idUSBRE88T06J20120930