We’ve sure gone from a pilot shortage to too many pilots pretty quickly…
In this post:
United pilots have option of voluntary unpaid leave
United Airlines is offering its pilots a voluntary unpaid leave program, as delayed deliveries of new Boeing aircraft is causing the airline to be overstaffed.
United is currently growing the fastest among the major US airlines, though due to production issues at Boeing, the airline has cut its delivery forecast for the year. United expects 15 fewer Boeing 737 MAX 9s and six fewer Boeing 737 MAX 8s than initially planned, leaving the airline with an excess of pilots.
The program United is offering is strictly voluntary, and pilots can take off for a month at a time without pay. So this program currently applies for pilots bidding on schedules for May 2024, though it’s expected that this will continue into the summer, and maybe even into the fall.
Pilots can either take the entire month off, can take specific days off, or can opt for a blank schedule, so that they can then pick up and trade trips as they’d like. Those who take advantage of this still receive their basic benefits (health insurance, travel benefits, etc.), but just won’t get the hourly pay they’d usually get for flying.
Just recently, United announced plans to pause pilot hiring, largely for similar reasons. United isn’t the only airline in that situation, as Southwest Airlines has also paused pilot hiring, given the issues the airline is experiencing with the Boeing 737 MAX.
Pilots negotiated contracts at the perfect time
They say timing is everything, and that’s especially true when you look at the amazing new contracts that pilots at the major US carriers have ratified. The unions at all the major US airlines negotiated new contracts in the past couple of years, collectively worth tens of billions of dollars.
They had little leverage at the start of the pandemic, when there was limited demand for air travel. But as demand quickly recovered, airlines couldn’t hire pilots fast enough. This put pilots in very high demand, and gave them the ability to negotiate the best contracts the industry has ever seen.
This insatiable demand for more pilots didn’t last long, though. Now we’re seeing Boeing delivery delays, Pratt & Whitney engine issues on some Airbus aircraft, etc. Even at regional airlines, the situation has improved. Just recently, Mesa Airlines’ CEO said that the supply of pilots has stabilized, and there are now lots of qualified first officer applications:
“There was a time when none of us could find first officers. Now I mean, I think we have close to 2,000 applicants for qualified first officers.”
This sentiment was echoed by CommuteAir’s CEO, who stated that there’s no longer a pilot shortage, but rather a captain shortage (at least at regional airlines):
“We can hire first officers. I think almost every regional airline right now has a stack of first officers. The problem is building their time at the same time you’re attriting out captains at a pretty high rate in the industry. We went from a pilot shortage to a captain shortage now in the industry. So the pendulum is starting to move.”
Of course pilots are in a great position, because these newly negotiated contracts are valid for several years. Furthermore, once the contracts are up for renewal, they almost never get a pay cut, short of bankruptcy at an airline. So they managed to set a new benchmark for pilot pay, and they’ll be benefiting from that for years to come. Hey, good for them, I don’t blame them, it’s just interesting to consider how quickly the demand for more pilots has decreased.
Bottom line
United Airlines is offering its pilots unpaid leave, as new aircraft delivery delays are causing the airline to be overstaffed. This comes just shortly after the airline announced plans to freeze pilot hiring. United isn’t the first airline to introduce a program like this, and I also suspect it won’t be the last…
What do you make of United offering pilots unpaid leave?
For whatever reason, Ben, you have permitted Tim Dunn to overtake your blog. "You have many choices when following a travel blog.,."
nobody is overtaking anything.
If you actually read my first reply to this article and then the subsequent reply, you will see that one person felt it was his duty to correct me and my statements and then launched a string of replies which culminated in his statements that Delta benefits from being non-union when in fact DL and UA have almost identical labor costs except for DL's higher profit sharing expenses; that DL...
nobody is overtaking anything.
If you actually read my first reply to this article and then the subsequent reply, you will see that one person felt it was his duty to correct me and my statements and then launched a string of replies which culminated in his statements that Delta benefits from being non-union when in fact DL and UA have almost identical labor costs except for DL's higher profit sharing expenses; that DL benefits from its hub monopolies when DL is flying a higher percentage of its system from highly competitive coastal hubs - similar to what UA has touted is its advantage and contrary to the fact that AA has hubs where it has high share in larger local markets than DL but underperforms DL and UA.
and the final statement which is the real clincher to why these discussions go sideways is the statement that "I should be in awe of what UA has accomplished" along w/ the claim that UA is performing better now than 4 years ago - which is patently false.
UA's profits in 2023 were less than in 2019 and its profit margin relative to DL is worse; largely unchanged compared to AA. UA's performance is better relative to WN which has significantly declined and several smaller airlines.
IN the last statement we get to the root of 95% of the dustups in online conversations: some people simply believe things about the airline industry and some players which are patently false and can't stand to hear the correct and factual narrative.
Add in that people really believe that someone should be "in awe" of the performance of any company and you have the real issue.
I participate in aviation social media to present facts and challenge faulty thinking
If you want to see fewer posts from me, why don't you have a chat w/ those people who feel like it is their calling in life to correct my statements by splitting decimals while missing the big picture which I get by a country mile.
and then recognize that "fanboyism" is very real in social media but most people get wrong who are the real fanboys
Tim
You were wrong and wrote paragraphs off one data point was wrong.
Move along
If you don’t know why delta spends millions fighting unionization and specifically hires union busting executives, you’re dumber than I thought.
Per United and their profits; I talked about pre pandemic, not 2019 specifically. They did very well in 2019, of course as a result of their strategy you’ve been dissing. But anyone with a brain can...
Tim
You were wrong and wrote paragraphs off one data point was wrong.
Move along
If you don’t know why delta spends millions fighting unionization and specifically hires union busting executives, you’re dumber than I thought.
Per United and their profits; I talked about pre pandemic, not 2019 specifically. They did very well in 2019, of course as a result of their strategy you’ve been dissing. But anyone with a brain can see the u turn United has had financially under Scott Kirby. Anyone with a slight industry in the industry knows that. AA profits went downhill while UA improved.
And per delta and their monopoly hubs, delta flies far more flights as a percent of network from their monopoly hubs vs United. Delta brags about their monopoly hubs to investors as the reason for their sustainable business model. They don’t say that about their coastal hubs. I don’t even know what you’d consider a United monopoly hub since they don’t have hub with percentages like clt, atl, dfw, SLC, MSP, and dtw. There is no United hub with percent domination like those airports in the United network when you account for competing airports nearby.
Seriously, just stop it with the lies. You will get called out when you lie and try to manipulate information like you do.
to no surprise, you doubled down in arguing about decimal points when your own calculated numbers don't agree with what UA itself published.
DL and UA's growth both rounds to 17% using numbers each provided. Arguing tenths of percent doesn't change the outcome. DL and UA both grew at very similar rates.
And the bigger point which you refuse to acknowledge is that UA's high rate of growth was unrealistic and they have had...
to no surprise, you doubled down in arguing about decimal points when your own calculated numbers don't agree with what UA itself published.
DL and UA's growth both rounds to 17% using numbers each provided. Arguing tenths of percent doesn't change the outcome. DL and UA both grew at very similar rates.
And the bigger point which you refuse to acknowledge is that UA's high rate of growth was unrealistic and they have had repeated challenges trying to achieve a growth rate which some of us knew was not possible. The EWR meltdown, the need to run to Airbus to fix delivery delays which were known well before UA doubled down w/ even larger orders over the last 2 years, and the castigation of public officials and suppliers are symptoms of an executive team that has been more hellbent on achieving its plans than in working w/ industry reality which affects the entire industry.
Of course DL gains benefits from being large non-unionized but their costs are not one of the benefits.
UA could have done everything that DL has done - and tried and failed to also acquire a refinery
UA could have negotiated for MRO rights but did not. If there is one benefit that DL has from being non-union it is that MRO work is non conducive to a heavily union environment.
And UA has failed to get the credit card benefits that DL has because Amex can generate higher benefits to DL because of higher merchant fees and because DL's much larger domestic system in larger markets delivers more domestic customers - which is where credit card benefits are seen and not in large international networks.
and Delta says it gets MORE of its profits from its coastal hubs - but you and United bragged endlessly about the strength of UA's hubs which are heavily coastal and competitive. Would you and UA now like to admit that DL's hub strategy was right all along and DL is gaining the advantage in taking larger shares of large coastal markets while UA is far less likely to gain a larger share of domestic traffic - because UA has to fight AA, DL and WN for that share - plus all of the LCCs and ULCCs that are hurting right now but will figure themselves out in a few years?
You can't have it both ways, Max.
DL has used its internal hub strength which you and others have mocked for being small and insignificant markets while touting UA's international network.
Now that DL is poised to significantly ramp up its international network and continues to grow in coastal markets, UA knows that DL is a strategic threat to UA's network much more so than the other way around domestically.
I have understood this dynamic for quite some time. You are now just arguing strawmen because you don't want to admit that I was right all along.
Scott Kirby has realized what is wrong w/ UA strategically. He just unrealistically expects that he can not only fix all of those problems in a couple years and gain an advantage compared to other carriers by jumping the line in getting new aircraft because of delays caused by the very same reasons that have harmed other carriers.
UA will grow but at a slower rate. UA will still have the largest US carrier international route network but DL is set to significantly challenge UA's dominance. UA will not take near as much domestic share from other airlines while fixing UA's small domestic network as you and they think.
Wanna keep arguing?
No one is lying or manipulating anytihng except you. You are in denial because I am not "in awe" of a company and esp. not UA
All it would take is one small dip in the economy, and unpaid leave could become mandatory, not voluntarily.
The pilots need to count their blessings!
and to add onto risk, crude oil is headed back to levels that will top where it was last fall. UA pays more per gallon of jet fuel than any other of the big 4 and burns more jet fuel than any other airline.
US airlines will start to report their earnings next week led by DL next Wednesday. DL likely will show benefit from the MAX 9 grounding in the 1st quarter and has paid the least per gallon of the big 4.
Offering unpaid leave seems reasonable to me. Alternatively, could offer pilots a deal to burn their paid leave, but at a 50% paid rate (burn 1 week of leave, get 2 weeks off at half pay) as a last resort before going to true furlough or layoffs.
As someone with family spread across 2 hemispheres, I've been begging my employer to let me take some unpaid leave for YEARS. I understand many people live paycheck...
Offering unpaid leave seems reasonable to me. Alternatively, could offer pilots a deal to burn their paid leave, but at a 50% paid rate (burn 1 week of leave, get 2 weeks off at half pay) as a last resort before going to true furlough or layoffs.
As someone with family spread across 2 hemispheres, I've been begging my employer to let me take some unpaid leave for YEARS. I understand many people live paycheck to paycheck, but UA pilots should be making in the low 100k range at a MINIMUM -- there's really no excuse for being paycheck to paycheck at that salary range unless you're living beyond your means and don't save. Which, unfortunately, most people do choose to live beyond their means.
Still -- giving pilots the chance to volunteer for a little bit of unpaid vacation time & flexible scheduling until new planes are delivered is a lot better than doing a mass layoff now and then a re-hire later on.
Boeing should be paying the wages of furloughed pilots and others. It's not like recurring problems with the 737Max and 787 were unforeseeable.
Boeing is paying its airline customers billions of dollars fo r delays, mostly in the form of discounts for future products.
That is precisely why UA doubled down over the past 2 years in ordering even more MAXs and 787s - because they could cash in a big chunk of those credits.
Then they did the same thing w/ compensation from Pratt and Whitney for the PW 4000 engine failures and ordered the GTF...
Boeing is paying its airline customers billions of dollars fo r delays, mostly in the form of discounts for future products.
That is precisely why UA doubled down over the past 2 years in ordering even more MAXs and 787s - because they could cash in a big chunk of those credits.
Then they did the same thing w/ compensation from Pratt and Whitney for the PW 4000 engine failures and ordered the GTF engine even though it was already having problems.
United and Southwest knew full well that Boeing was having major delivery and certification delays for the MAX 7 and 10 but they failed to diversify while AA and DL both have large Airbus orders which are also delayed but for far less time.
the 787 has been grounded and both the MAX and 787 have had production halted multiple times.
No, it is no surprise that UA is experiencing delivery delays.
The only surprise is that anyone including UA execs think or ever thought that they can/could ever salvage their unrealistic growth plan and jump ahead of dozens of other airlines that are also experiencing delays and are being compensated for them.
UA can grow but not at the rate it planned which will have strategic, financial and employee implications.
The sooner some people come to grips with that reality and quit trying to shoot the messenger, the sooner we can move into a reality which is going to happen anyway
Could OMAAT offer Tim Dunn unpaid leave?
Ben - and maybe a few other people perhaps that get UA paychecks - are the only ones getting paid to write anything here.
The only people that need to walk away are those people that want to turn every discussion that is even the least bit negative about some airlines and positive for others into a personal pi89ing match because they cannot accept basic industry facts.
United and no one else has made a...
Ben - and maybe a few other people perhaps that get UA paychecks - are the only ones getting paid to write anything here.
The only people that need to walk away are those people that want to turn every discussion that is even the least bit negative about some airlines and positive for others into a personal pi89ing match because they cannot accept basic industry facts.
United and no one else has made a huge deal about its planned growth, embarked on a financially and executionally risky growth plan that some of us knew was highly unlikely to happen and which could cause substantial harm to UA whether it succeeded or not, and that growth plan has been falling apart just about from the day it was announced.
UA execs trash talked the FAA and Boeing even as UA's operation experienced far more safety-related issues both in number and severity and then UA execs ran to Boeing's competitor hoping to hold that growth plan together. Lo and behold, the FAA has come down hard, some of UA's competitors are still growing at slower paces in line with what they had planned privately and without fanfare, and it is UA's fans that told us endlessly that UA would "whoop up" on everyone else that are eating crow.
The GTF issue will be resolved in a couple years followed by Boeing's return to normal production levels. there will be no "jumping the queue" by anyone to gain any competitive advantage. UA will still be saddled by massively more debt and a drain on cash flow than any other US airline -and probably any airline in the world.
Offering a few unpaid leaves for a month or two isn't the end of the world for UA but the symbolism and the coverage in the press is very real.
UA's vaunted growth plan that was never going to happen despite what UA execs touted and many believed is indeed falling apart.
You and everyone else can deal w/ the ramifications of what all that means.
So you’re now accusing Ben of violating his own ethics policy?
Ben would know it better than I do but it seems rather obvious from a quick glance that he isn’t paid by United for tickets, reviews or anything directly from United. Credit card links to a provider seems quite the reach to accuse him of being paid by United.
Tim, you made an ignorant statement earlier trying to bring up capacity growth. You...
So you’re now accusing Ben of violating his own ethics policy?
Ben would know it better than I do but it seems rather obvious from a quick glance that he isn’t paid by United for tickets, reviews or anything directly from United. Credit card links to a provider seems quite the reach to accuse him of being paid by United.
Tim, you made an ignorant statement earlier trying to bring up capacity growth. You obviously hadn’t looked at the data (or had and just wanted to do your normal delta school) and created a topic that isn’t even up for debate in this thread. Just move on and admit when you’re wrong.
It isn’t tough to do.
you know full well that Ben gets paid for the advertising space he sells on this site. I realize you and your ilk are in full blown denial mode but this site is not a work of charity.
Others that participate in this and other sites get paid by United.
And you would love to split decimals so you don't have to admit that United is the ONLY US airline that has made a...
you know full well that Ben gets paid for the advertising space he sells on this site. I realize you and your ilk are in full blown denial mode but this site is not a work of charity.
Others that participate in this and other sites get paid by United.
And you would love to split decimals so you don't have to admit that United is the ONLY US airline that has made a massive campaign out of its growth including saying that it would be able to gain an advantage by growing when others couldn't.
It hasn't happened on a sustained basis and won't happen in 2024, Max.
UA will return to a normal rate of growth and deliveries when everyone else does, not before and not faster.
The sooner you and everyone else including UA execs understand that principle, the less friction there will be on this and other sites every time another event occurs that proves that UA's growth plan was never realistic and isn't happening.
Look at tim admitting he’s wrong about capacity growth in 23 in his own egotistical way. Good of you to admit you’re wrong, tim. Pretty obvious to anyone with a calculator and knowledge of SEC filings.
And while I do love how you love to change the subject when proven wrong, you’re the only one talking about United and their campaigns. I’m just pointing out your data is wrong. Though you’d have to not...
Look at tim admitting he’s wrong about capacity growth in 23 in his own egotistical way. Good of you to admit you’re wrong, tim. Pretty obvious to anyone with a calculator and knowledge of SEC filings.
And while I do love how you love to change the subject when proven wrong, you’re the only one talking about United and their campaigns. I’m just pointing out your data is wrong. Though you’d have to not know much about delta to suggest they haven’t talked about growth the last 2-3 years ;)
And no, tim. I don’t have a strange vendetta against Ben to assume his ethics page is there for show only.
I think you might be the only one who doesn’t realize how google advertising works. Heads up: he doesn’t control who advertises here ;)
Ben even mentions in his ethics page specifically about google ads and how he interacts with it.
And he’s hardly someone that goes out of his way to fly United often for better or worse.
But sure, keep finding new rabbit trails to run down for no reason…
“Ben - and maybe a few other people perhaps that get UA paychecks - are the only ones getting paid to write anything here.”
That’s the joke, you OCD weirdo.
Commenting on points / miles blogs in support of Delta is your unpaid job.
So they forecasted pilot needs based off aircraft deliveries and now Boeing deliveries are delayed and they're overstaffed. Not really their fault and could happen to any airline. This coming from someone who never flies UA.
Are the executives at United also going to take unpaid leave? I'm going to guess that's a 'no.'
correction to the article:
United has tried UNSUCCESSFULLY to grow at the fastest rate among US airlines.
United is growing at the same pace as Delta - or vice versa. Both grew ASMs 17% in 2023. UA expects its capacity growth to be down in the first quarter which will lead to a loss. Many, but not all, US airlines are guiding to first quarter 2024 losses.
and whether the FAA has imposed...
correction to the article:
United has tried UNSUCCESSFULLY to grow at the fastest rate among US airlines.
United is growing at the same pace as Delta - or vice versa. Both grew ASMs 17% in 2023. UA expects its capacity growth to be down in the first quarter which will lead to a loss. Many, but not all, US airlines are guiding to first quarter 2024 losses.
and whether the FAA has imposed restrictions on UA's growth or not, they have made it clear that they want UA's operation running more safely and are ready to impose restrictions if necessary. UA will not be growing as quickly as they had planned which was never realistic.
United 2023 ASM growth: 17.5%
Delta 2023 ASM growth: 16.6%
Tad silly to try to look smarter than the author when you haven’t even checked your own data.
Try not to continue your day being wrong… again…
@MaxPower
Tim would argue that's a rounding "premium".
MAX,
I am not trying to look smarter than anyone including Ben and I sure am not interested in a 25 message pi789ng match but I will do what is necessary to make sure the facts, not personal attacks, are known.
First, DL doesn't report tenths of a percent in any operating stat but only whole percentages. UA reports 1/10ths of percentages but your numbers don't even agree w/ what they reported.
Second,...
MAX,
I am not trying to look smarter than anyone including Ben and I sure am not interested in a 25 message pi789ng match but I will do what is necessary to make sure the facts, not personal attacks, are known.
First, DL doesn't report tenths of a percent in any operating stat but only whole percentages. UA reports 1/10ths of percentages but your numbers don't even agree w/ what they reported.
Second, ASMs matter to precisely no one except airline geeks that want bragging rights to something. Passengers don't choose an airline based on ASMS, investors don't get paid by ASM production - but rather profits - and employees have no incentive to generate more ASMs. None.
Third, UA has indeed failed at the growth plan that they laid out and anyone that has remotely followed the airline and aerospace industry knows that Boeing has had quality and production delays for more than a decade. And yet, United, which has been bit by those delays, simply used its customer compensation from Boeing to order more aircraft and make even larger orders when the original problem wasn't addressed.
Fourth, UA went to Airbus to try to swap out MAX 10 orders but UA selected the Pratt and Whitney GTF as its engine and that engine is experiencing significant recalls - the FAA just added another inspection requirement - and Pratt is paying airlines for aircraft that are on the ground after delivery. Airbus is also paying delivery delays. No airline is going to jump the queue and get aircraft any faster unless they pay for all of those penalties PLUS a higher cost for airplanes.
Fifth, UA is under FAA investigation for safety issues which are NOT just like any other airline and also not just a routine FAA inspection.
Sixth, the problem is not just about narrowbody domestic aircraft but also widebodies. United will not get the 787s it wanted. In contrast, DL which has steered clear of Boeing widebodies for over a decade will receive 14 new Airbus widebodies, the most it has ever received in a year. Next year it will be 11.
Seventh and final. United built the NEXT program around the notion that UA could fix a number of long-standing strategic problems at UA - including its relatively small domestic system - by pouring capacity into the domestic network and gain a competitive advantage against other carriers including low cost and ULCCs that are handicapped by the MAX 7 (WN) and GTF issues. Whether they said it or not, DL was never willing to cede its position in the market to anyone and will grow as fast domestically - which includes 2024 - check the verb tense Ben used - as well as internationally.
You are free to nitpick details with your own data to avoid admitting the principles I am making but my statements are correct.
The absolute numbers are reported by delta, tim.
It’s not tough to get your calculator and do your own % growth calc ;)
“ Second, ASMs matter to precisely no one except airline geeks that want bragging rights to something”
So I guess you’re talking about yourself? You are the one that posted the wrong stats trying to look smart and hoping no one would check your conclusions…
Tim, walk away. Your reply to me is literally countering your own comment. You’re the one that wrote about ASM growth between carriers as though it mattered lol
...
“ Second, ASMs matter to precisely no one except airline geeks that want bragging rights to something”
So I guess you’re talking about yourself? You are the one that posted the wrong stats trying to look smart and hoping no one would check your conclusions…
Tim, walk away. Your reply to me is literally countering your own comment. You’re the one that wrote about ASM growth between carriers as though it mattered lol
Grow up. Make today a better day. You’ve been wrong a lot lately.
If you do your normal BS trying to look cool to yourself while trying to demean others, you can expect to be shown that you are wrong when you use fake info to make a point. This one was very easy.
It’s boring listening to you Tim. Like many of us have said before you constant bringing up delta whenever United is brought up is just boring. We get it you *love* a corporation.
DL came up w/ the statement that UA "is the fastest growing airline"
Not only does it take fat-fingering a calculator to come up w/ that statement but we are still in the growth process.
And most significantly, UA has not been able to translate that growth into long-term gains.
Remember that it was United that said that they wouldn't retire aircraft during the pandemic so that they would be ready to...
DL came up w/ the statement that UA "is the fastest growing airline"
Not only does it take fat-fingering a calculator to come up w/ that statement but we are still in the growth process.
And most significantly, UA has not been able to translate that growth into long-term gains.
Remember that it was United that said that they wouldn't retire aircraft during the pandemic so that they would be ready to make money and gain profits before other carriers.
For anyone that missed it, United gained an advantage for precisely ONE QUARTER - the 3rd quarter of 2022. Other airlines - not just DL - were able to start growing again and did so w/o the operational challenges UA had.
Have we forgot about the UA meltdown at EWR in 2023?
UA's growth plan has been plagued by challenges since it was announced and has not and will not result in the competitive advantages that UA thought it would gain.
Hearing those facts is, of course, boring to anyone that isn't interested in the facts
correction. a few words are missing..
DL is relevant to this discussion because someone came up w/ the statement that UA is the fastest growing airline....
bottom line is that pilot staffing ups and downs weren't the first and won't be the last hiccup in trying to making an unrealistic growth plan work no matter how much some people feel compelled to argue tenths of percentages to distract from facing the big picture.
I don't even know how you can post something so stupid, Tim, when United's profits have taken an incredibly impressive turn for the better the last 3 years and vs pre pandemic. United doesn't have the monopoly hub (aka. Monopoly pricing delta brags about) or the non-union benefit delta has either. You love to talk about wages but don't seem to know much about the financial benefit union vs non-union labor.... though I think you...
I don't even know how you can post something so stupid, Tim, when United's profits have taken an incredibly impressive turn for the better the last 3 years and vs pre pandemic. United doesn't have the monopoly hub (aka. Monopoly pricing delta brags about) or the non-union benefit delta has either. You love to talk about wages but don't seem to know much about the financial benefit union vs non-union labor.... though I think you actually may know since you're desperately crazy against any Delta group unionizing since you actually seem aware how much of delta's financial advantage would melt away if they had work rules similar to United and AA. There's a lot more cost to unions vs non unions than simply wages.
if you had even a modicum of financial sense, you'd be in awe that United has done this without any of the benefits Delta inherited and their leadership had nothing to do with aside from hiring a bunch of union busters...
Max
do me a favor and tell me UAL's profit margin in 2019 and then for 2022 and 2023 and then compare it to other airlines including DAL's.
The simple fact is that UAL's profit margin not really higher - UAL's absolute profit in 2023 was lower than in 2019 - but it hasn't improved relative to DAL or AAL. Only LUV of the big 4 is dramatically worse off than they were...
Max
do me a favor and tell me UAL's profit margin in 2019 and then for 2022 and 2023 and then compare it to other airlines including DAL's.
The simple fact is that UAL's profit margin not really higher - UAL's absolute profit in 2023 was lower than in 2019 - but it hasn't improved relative to DAL or AAL. Only LUV of the big 4 is dramatically worse off than they were in 2019.
and as much as you want to blame Boeing, the gap between Delta and United will grow in 2024.
The simple reason why I post what I do is because people like you continue to make factually incorrect statements and draw incorrect conclusions based on your incorrect statements.
and let's also not forget that UA did try to buy a refinery after DL did - and the deal fell apart.
There isn't a thing that DL is doing that UA couldn't have done then or couldn't do now.
again, Scott Kirby correctly recognizes the challenge that UA faces but he hasn't made any relative progress in correcting them but has made a whole lot of missteps in trying to execute an excessively aggressive growth plan that was never going to work.
a few other things, Max,
United has touted for years - and you and others have parroted it - that UA has the best hubs because they are in the best and largest metros.
Those metros have long been some of the most competitive.
So were you and others wrong all along about UA having hubs in the best locations?
and if you actually knew data, AA has a higher percentage...
a few other things, Max,
United has touted for years - and you and others have parroted it - that UA has the best hubs because they are in the best and largest metros.
Those metros have long been some of the most competitive.
So were you and others wrong all along about UA having hubs in the best locations?
and if you actually knew data, AA has a higher percentage of capacity in hubs where it is the largest carrier. N. Texas is a slightly larger hub than ATL, MIA is larger than DTW, MSP or SLC and the SLC local market is about the same size as CLT.
DL has MORE of its capacity in competitive hubs such as NYC, BOS, LAX and SEA than it ever has had and yet DL's profits keep going up.
and DL and UA"s labor costs are almost identical. The only appreciable difference is DL's higher profit sharing.
again, look up actual numbers and quit making statements that are clearly not true.
I'm not in awe of any company. I do real analysis and I participate in chat forums to make accurate statements and correct ones that people like you make which are simply not correct
You can live in your own world, tim but try to stay away from putting words in my mouth or, as always, trying to change the subject when you know you’re wrong.
I’ve never said that about United hubs
Per aa hubs, you already know your statement is stupid even reading it. Stop trying to make up stats based on incomplete data. Delta literally brags about their monopoly hubs being the source of...
You can live in your own world, tim but try to stay away from putting words in my mouth or, as always, trying to change the subject when you know you’re wrong.
I’ve never said that about United hubs
Per aa hubs, you already know your statement is stupid even reading it. Stop trying to make up stats based on incomplete data. Delta literally brags about their monopoly hubs being the source of their profits. Dfw has love field. Phx has WN there. Miami has FLL. Clt, sure. But there actually is a ULCC airport nearby CLT unlike ATL. Dca has iad and Bwi. Atl, MSP, dtw, and SLC have no such competition.
Your constant lying is tiring.
It was quite hilarious that you went and liked all your own posts though.
DL had a panel fall off of an A330 and air-returned to SLC. They also had a wheel come off a 757. The same two issues UA had. That there was less media coverage is the reason FAA isn’t increasing scrutiny on DL.
DL brought on 40 planes last year while UA added 100, yet they grew the same?
And I’m confused. Is growth good or bad? You heap scorn on UA for growing,...
DL had a panel fall off of an A330 and air-returned to SLC. They also had a wheel come off a 757. The same two issues UA had. That there was less media coverage is the reason FAA isn’t increasing scrutiny on DL.
DL brought on 40 planes last year while UA added 100, yet they grew the same?
And I’m confused. Is growth good or bad? You heap scorn on UA for growing, yet tout DL for growing as much as UA.
Remember, these are planes that will be in the fleet for 30 years. All airlines need to renew their fleets. If UA is paying now for planes (at significantly reduced rates) that will be around for decades, it doesn’t seem like a big deal.
Mark,
it is obvious that you don't understand the issues.
Growth is fine if it is done well and financially sustainable.
DL grew as much as it did in 2023 because it had excess capacity in its system as a result of 1. aircraft that were underutilized (DL specifically did not grow as much as it could in 2022 because its operation was not running as well as it wanted) 2. DL still...
Mark,
it is obvious that you don't understand the issues.
Growth is fine if it is done well and financially sustainable.
DL grew as much as it did in 2023 because it had excess capacity in its system as a result of 1. aircraft that were underutilized (DL specifically did not grow as much as it could in 2022 because its operation was not running as well as it wanted) 2. DL still received new aircraft in 2022 and received more in 2023 and 3. DL put used aircraft - both the B737-900ERs and ex-Latam A350-900s - into service in 2023 or increased capacity using them.
DL didn't try to run pedal to the metal and its growth was sustainable in 2023.
You and others still don't get that capacity is not measured by the number of aircraft but how they are used.
and then UA had a number of operational issues which simply far exceeded the number and severity of what other airlines had. Continually bringing up other airlines simply proves that you don't want to understand why the FAA is doing what it is - because you don't want to believe something is wrong w/ UA.
UA damaged more aircraft than any other airline, a UA flight nearly dropped into the Pacific, and then there were the recent spat of incidents that included parts falling off aircraft and aircraft sliding off taxiways etc.
Let's not forget that UA overscheduled EWR, had a massive meltdown, then trash talked the Sec'y of the DOT and the FAA when other airlines in NYC didn't face the same problems.
When UA couldn't get the planes it wanted, it trash talked Boeing, ran to Airbus, and still hasn't come up w/ any new planes - and I suspect the FAA's message of "we can stop your growth if you don't get your operation back on track" is the final straw that UA needed to hear about growth:
You can grow but not at the high rates you wanted, you aren't going to jump ahead of your competitors in getting the few planes that can be produced either by Airbus or Boeing, and you won't gain a competitive advantage against competitors that are facing huge impact of the GTF engine problems and the MAX certification delays.
Boeing can convert some of the MAX 10s that UA had on order to MAX 9s and 8s but the number that can be delivered will be well below what UA wanted. Airbus is not going to come up w/ a bunch of A321NEOs until its deliveries are back on track which is only going to happen when Pratt and Whitney gets the GTF rebuilds finished AND if UA is willing to pay more for new aircraft than Airbus would charge other customers for new aircraft PLUS penalties for delivery delays to other customers.
Boeing is not willing to wipe tens of billions of orders off its order book as UA decides to swap out Boeing orders for Airbus orders.
There are plenty of parties that had reason to let UA know that they need to accept a slower growth rate and the FAA is finally dealing that message firmly to UA.
UA can grow but not as fast as they wanted, will not gain advantages from other airlines' demises, and will honor the commitments they made to Boeing.
add in the financial stress on UA's balance already - and the last chapter of Kirby's massive spending spree is far from settled. UA will spend more than AA, DL and WN is spending on fleet.
and UA's fleet is still the oldest among US airlines. If they started to use some of those aircraft for fleet replacement, we could all accept that they are starting to fix their fleet age problem but their fleet plan as late as early Jan was for virtually no aircraft retirements in 2024 but all growth, growth, growth.
We can debate this as long as any version of the topic comes up but UA's growth plan was excessive, unexecutable, and risky. UA can grow but not at the pace it was.
UA employees are just one group that is paying a price for UA's pedal to the metal growth plan that will not happen.
There will be more starts and stops in the future until UA execs come up w/ a sustainable and smooth growth plan that is built around all of the constraints that exist including those outside of UA's control.
Wait, you've written numerous times about how United's plan for growth is catastrophic and monumentally stupid and will saddle them with debt out the wazoo, yadda yadda yadda. And now you're saying that Delta grew as much as United in 2023, and will in fact exceed United's growth in 2024 thanks to those shiny new Airbus widebodies it's getting.
So then logic must conclude that Delta is being monumentally stupid and arrogant and risking bankruptcy,...
Wait, you've written numerous times about how United's plan for growth is catastrophic and monumentally stupid and will saddle them with debt out the wazoo, yadda yadda yadda. And now you're saying that Delta grew as much as United in 2023, and will in fact exceed United's growth in 2024 thanks to those shiny new Airbus widebodies it's getting.
So then logic must conclude that Delta is being monumentally stupid and arrogant and risking bankruptcy, etc. etc. etc. while United is being smart, banking their credits from Boeing, reducing their growth rate (albeit not by choice), and even furloughing pilots until the new aircraft are delivered. Right?
your logic is flawed and not based on data.
DAL spent 60% of what UAL spent to grow in 2023 and DAL has less than 1/3 of what UAL has committed to spend for new fleet spending.
In fact, United is spending more on fleet spending than American, Delta and Southwest combined over the next 10 years.
Delta bought over 40 used aircraft during the pandemic and put them into service in 2023...
your logic is flawed and not based on data.
DAL spent 60% of what UAL spent to grow in 2023 and DAL has less than 1/3 of what UAL has committed to spend for new fleet spending.
In fact, United is spending more on fleet spending than American, Delta and Southwest combined over the next 10 years.
Delta bought over 40 used aircraft during the pandemic and put them into service in 2023 and that will continue into 2024. Delta is still returning aircraft to service that were grounded during the pandemic. AA is doing the same thing on a smaller basis.
If United really accepted that their growth was slowed because of Boeing's delivery delays, then I wouldn't be saying what I am... but Scott Kirby ran to Airbus trying to get more aircraft which he would pay more for than the ones that Boeing can't deliver.
and furloughing is not a good sign because it represents a complete stop-start cycle of growth.
AA and DL are both still hiring pilots but at a slower rate. UA and WN have had to stop pilot hiring even if temporarily.
Again, as noted above, Boeing's delivery delays aren't unexpected. that has been the way they have operated for over a decade.
Only UA build a growth plan that was heavily built around Boeing, paid more than every other US airline combined to try to make it happen - and is still on the hook for those commitments, thought they would gain competitive advantages by jumping the line when everyone else was having delays, and UA itself is now the one that is having to dramatically slow its growth while other airlines will keep growing.
and no other airline is under FAA investigation of its safety procedures for maintenance and piloting.
and United's fleet is still the oldest on average among US airlines which means that they will have to devote large portions of their fleet to replacement sooner in their growth cycle than they planned.
Kirby wanted to expand United to the greatest largest safest (add your own superlative ) airline. Consider how that is working out right now. Travel is an ephemeral business. While I do think UA can get back on track, slowing things down a bit might help. As for the pilots, count your blessings.
Airline management teams all over the world have repeatedly shown how short-sighted and incompetent they are. Decision making based on knee-jerk reactions to satisfy stock holders.
That was Mesa’s CEO not CommuteAir’s who said there’s a captain shortage…