We’ve seen many trends in the airline industry coming out of the pandemic, from the increased demand for premium products, to the seemingly insatiable demand for Americans to travel to Europe every summer (or even multiple times!).
A few months ago I posed the question of the whether the level of transatlantic summer demand is permanent or a fad, and there’s some interesting data, on that front…
Summer travel demand between the US & Europe is softening
Cirium, the airline analytics company, has just released some data about how airline bookings between the United States and Europe have softened for the summer of 2026 compared to the summer of 2025. Specifically, this data compares:
- July 2026 bookings made between October 7, 2025, and January 31, 2026
- July 2025 bookings made between October 7, 2024, and January 31, 2025
What’s noteworthy is that demand seems to be meaningfully softening in both directions of travel. From the United States to Europe, demand has decreased 7.27%, while from Europe to the United States, demand has decreased 14.22%. It’s fascinating to see how the numbers compare by market.
From the United States to Europe:
- Amsterdam demand is down 7%
- Athens demand is down 13%
- Barcelona demand is up 5%
- Dublin demand is down 13%
- Frankfurt demand is down 29%
- London demand is down 3%
- Madrid demand is down 5%
- Milan demand is down 13%
- Munich demand is down 13%
- Paris demand is down 7%
- Rome demand is down 2%
From Europe to the United States:
- Amsterdam demand is down 23%
- Athens demand is down 19%
- Barcelona demand is down 26%
- Dublin demand is down 15%
- Frankfurt demand is down 36%
- London demand is up 1%
- Madrid demand is down 16%
- Milan demand is down 8%
- Munich demand is down 19%
- Paris demand is down 21%
- Rome demand is down 5%
Cirium adds the following caveats:
This data comes from various third-party sources, primarily Online Travel Agencies and the GDS (Global Distribution System) that airlines and travel agents use. It does not provide booking data information from the airlines directly, and some airlines do not sell through GDS/Online Travel Agencies. Only the airlines know with any certainty what their bookings look like. Accordingly, this data is purely directional — an indicator — rather than hard bookings data. Cirium will not provide airline-specific bookings data. So, it’s a sample of a sample. The sample size is statistically significant.
What could explain this decrease in transatlantic demand?
Since the start of the pandemic, we’ve seen year-after-year increases in summer demand across the Atlantic, and at some point it really felt like there was no limit to how much demand there was for traveling across the Atlantic in summer.
So what’s going on here? Have we finally reached the point where demand has peaked, and it’s now starting to decrease? Or is there another possible explanation?
While demand is down most for those originating in Europe, I don’t think that’s too surprising, given politics. I think what’s most surprising is the extent to which demand originating in the United States is down. So what could explain that? As I view it, there are six possible explanations (or more than likely, it’s a combination of factors):
- Traveling to Europe has become even more expensive with the strength of the EUR vs. USD, and that doesn’t even factor in how much more expensive hotels have become
- Affordability continues to be a big issue for Americans, so maybe we’re getting to the point where many people just can’t afford to plan these kinds of trips anymore
- Perhaps this ties in to the affordability issue, but this softening of demand is based on bookings five months out, so are people just not booking as far in advance?
- Summer travel demand is moving earlier in the season, and the peak of summer is increasingly shifting to June, so that could play a factor; however, July has continued to remain strong, and it’s mainly August that has suffered
- The World Cup will be taking place in the United States in June and July 2026, so are some people choosing not to travel, so they can be here for that?
- For those who really only started traveling to Europe after the start of the pandemic (which largely contributed to this trend), do they just feel like they’re now at the point where they’ve “been there, done that,” and don’t need to go anymore?
For now we’ll mark this as “developing.” Cirium plans to share more updates in the coming months, so I’m curious to see how this evolves.
I suspect there are a combination of factors at play here. My guess is that demand will pick up a bit as the actual travel date approaches, though I do think we may have now reached the point where demand between the continents in summer has peaked.
Bottom line
Data from Cirium suggests that summer transatlantic bookings are down rather meaningfully year-over-year. The biggest drop is from Europe to the United States, though the decrease from the United States to Europe is substantial as well.
It’s hard to draw too many conclusions as of now, since we’re talking about bookings five months out. That being said, I think this shouldn’t be ignored, and is something to keep an eye on. Has transatlantic summer demand finally peaked? Is this kind of travel just becoming more unaffordable for more people? Or does it just reflect shifting trends, of the summer travel season across the Atlantic being longer than in the past?
What do you make of this data about transatlantic summer demand softening?
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