We’ve seen many trends in the airline industry coming out of the pandemic, from the increased demand for premium products, to the seemingly insatiable demand for Americans to travel to Europe every summer (or even multiple times!).
Continue reading: Is Transatlantic Summer Travel Demand Softening In 2026? Data Suggests So…
Share your questions, experiences, and thoughts below.
What about more people are booking DIRECT with airlines and LESS with Travel agencies?
Europeans don’t want to come to the US (even for World Cup). Americans don’t feel welcome in Europe. One common cause.
Are you stupid or just trying to be funny? Hopefully the latter. Booking direct vs. with a travel agent makes no difference for Cirium data.
As a European , who’s traveled to the US the last few years in a row for holidays to visit friends , I’m not going this year because of Trump and everything going on over there.
I have another explanation that seems to be missing, and arguibly the most realistic reason for EU-US demand significaly down:
The European boycott of the US and US products. It started last year and intensified in the last few monts.
Simple and straightforward.
Possibly. I think from the US much of this is economic driven. The number of Americans heavily in debt and never ending job layoffs.
"GREAT" news for "Pork Chop" Dinky Timothea "Dirty Deuce" Dunce! Less passengers flying will give Delta time to try and catch up on wifi installations across the fleet! United and American have beat them totally! Sad!
IDK on that. Vast majority of people don't care about politics and even fewer care about Trump to the point of altering their plans.
I think politics and hotel rates are the big factor. And for visitors coming to USA - high crime in big cities. Hotel rates seemed to have doubled in a year. What used to be $200 to $300 a night is now $400 to $600 a night. I am now paying $400 per night for Courtyard's in the USA (original style building). Full service Marriott's are now $500+ at international destinations.
Definitely a sense the US is not somewhere to visit at the moment that being said Virgin Atlantic have announced more seats to Orlando this summer from Manchester. Still busy in the premium cabins from what I’ve witnessed but the back of the bus is usually sparse.
In March 2025 it was published that 70% of Swedes and 50% of Danish were refraining from buying American products as a form of political protest (polls made by national broadcasters). Fast forward to 2026 and amplify it across Europe.
My two cents: Just like Tulum was a major fad that has largely died off, so is Europe. Given every european city is the same (ok I know not really but play along - river down the middle, some iconic bridge over said river, some newer bridge over said river all the locals detest, some cathedral, some hipster streets perfect for selfies, some park to buy cocaine) - once you have a few cities in your Instagram feed adding more doesn't really help you much.
Maybe people have gone into so much debt on past Europe trips that it isn't sustainable anymore too - but I think it is just more these short-lived fads that have overtaken social media left and right.
You are ignorering the obvious: Trump and the creeping US fascism.
We europeans have read the history books - you guys should try and do the same. Hope to be back in the US once you have had your Nuremberg-trials.
Yup.
And that make the numbers worse. While it's more expensive for US travellers to go abroad (good reason for the decrease in outbound traffic), it's cheaper for inbound travellers to visit the US - yet they are still staying away. Guess that's part of making America great again. LOL(?). Maybe America's exports will see a boost in demand. Oops, never mind, America doesn't produce anything, China does.
Thanks for sharing the preliminary data.
A couple of days ago I bought a summertime Europe - West Coast Y round trip for $600. Basic. I don’t recall seeing something that cheap for summer in a long long time.
I also read European newspapers, ie not fox propaganda. It’s pretty clear to me too why they’re not visiting the US more. They see our federal government for what it is.
@George Romney I thought your guy had brought us to levels of economic prosperity never seen before. He's telling us the economy is fine, so it must be so. His tariffs were perfect. His raising of insurance premium on low-income Americans was perfect. His trade wars have made us more prosperous. Canada and Greenland love us and want to be part of the US. Reducing credit card interests rates to 10% for one year will fix everything.
So...?
These changes need to be normalized against currency movement because currency movements ALWAYS impact international leisure travel. The USD and Euro were essentially at parity 3 years ago but the historic relationship between the USD and Euro is returning.
The same reason why so many Americans have been able to vacation in Europe is also the reason why Japan went over the could of a couple of years from being a source of US inbound tourism to a financially attractive destination for American tourists
Currency is not just about travel. It also includes manufacturing and the cost/benefit to import and export. It also involves the attractiveness of national debt.
and there is a "we've already done that" factor that will result in a reduction of American tourism to Europe. The stock market has been very strong and many Americans are spending and will spend enormous amounts of their wealth including retirement savings for travel; other places will become more "in vogue"
DL led the industry after last summer saying it will keep US-Europe capacity flat but spread it out over a longer period of time. Southern Europe is overrun and hot in the summer and some will continue to go but it is pleasant in spring and fall.
and let's also not forget that airfares to Europe rose because of the near complete collapse of widebody low cost carriers. lower cost carriers that use narrowbodies have replaced some of that capacity but are much more hub and spoke in their strategies.
Travel demand evolves and has for years; well-run companies will figure out how to adapt and succeed. Consumers will always do what is in their best interest and companies will offer products and services if it makes economic sense to do so
Like most Cirium data other than schedules data, this is a sample which even they admit has limited accuracy or validity.
Not to say that demand isn't soft (in fact, talking to some airlines the demand on some routes is even softer than indicated by Cirium), but I wouldn't draw any conclusions from data sets they supply publicly - whether that is OTP, demand or any other metric they come up with.
"consumers will always do what is in their best interest" lol you and me both know that is nowhere near true. Delta wouldnt have succeeded as much as they have if they hadnt been able to get droves of people to abandon reason to pay a cost premium for the fake promise of "loyalty" and "status"
Aer Lingus is also stopping long-haul flights from Manchester, one of which is a MAN-MCO daily service on an A330. Virgin is likely adding capacity because of that.
Surprise. People dont want to go to the US after watching the News. ICE, Trump, ect.. are not really making it welcoming.
Maybe, but not at the top/luxury end. Summer bookings for Europe are already pouring in and availability at the top hotels is already becoming thin.
Indeed and BA announced a seasonal LHR-MCO over the summer in addition to its LGW flights.
@Parker You do realize the lying about the economy goes back at least to Bush, if not before. If you get your news from cable or network, which you seem to do, you're getting propaganda and lies. Actually, getting rid of high interest debt would help consumers and it might force lenders to make better lending decisions. Giving a 25 year old a credit card with a $5K line of credit?
The common cause is a Democrat in the White House. Trump was registered as a Democrat and donated to Democrats, even Hillary Clinton. He is a spy and a plant for the Democrats except he doesn't want more estate tax for selfish reasons. His goal is to destroy the Republican Party.
As others have said, you're overlooking the Trump administration's tole in this. The administration has weakened the US and global economies, damaged relations and goodwill between the US and Europe, and unleashed a violent secret police force who care little for the law, standard operating procedures, or public safety.
Yes but even with a significantly weaker dollar Europe is much better value compared to the US. I just stayed at a 5-star property in Europe for less than $300 USD. In the US, I often pay more than this for a tired Holiday Inn Express on the side of the highway in the middle of nowhere. A nice hotel in the US is usually $1,000 upwards. I don’t care about 12% weakening of the dollar from that perspective…
You arrogantly look down at others and can't admit that people are capable of making their own decisions and do so with different priorities than you.
DL's premium comes from not flooding the market with capacity - as UA has done - but also in managing capacity to not offer as many flights in off-peak periods. add in DL's joint venture network with hubs in 3 of Europe's 4 largest airports and DL's strength in southern Europe which goes all the way back to the Pan Am asset acquisition and DL has outperformed nearly every other airline across the Atlantic for decades.
you can kick and scream all you want but actual facts highlight how wrong you are.
You say that, but to be clear myself and plenty of my peers who have and would often travel over the Atlantic won't be going given your political situation and down right bat shit crazy foreign policy.
It might not be a huge impact, but it does exist, so dont fool yourself.
While the US has been very antagonistic of a number of its allies, Trump has made it clear that the US is not going to be paying for Europe's defense; even the EU leadership has agreed that they should be paying for their own defense as well as deal w/ major issues like the Arctic that matter to the EU and US.
Being a bull in a china shop doesn't mean he hasn't made some good points and has succeeded in shifting mindsets that have been accepted for generations.
When you or anyone is so consumed with TDS, you are incapable of looking at the pros and cons - leaving real analysis to others.
Based just on the US-Europe routes that I watch prices for, this is real. Prices have pretty consistently dropped to pre-COVID levels during the last 4 or 5 months.
And yet the actions of the man in Pennsylvania Avenue is forcing long term friends and allies to pursue uncomfortable relations with China and other countries in order to preserve some kind of financial fall back for the long term, in the short we have to say nice things and flatter but mark my words friends won’t forget or be caught out again when a country bullies it closest neighbours and allies.
Flew ZRH to MIA last Thursday. Business was 60% load and Economy was less than 40%. I have been flying this route for 20 years in January around the same time and never seen the plane so empty. Immigration at MIA was a ghost town. Non US citizens cleared before I went thru Global Entry LOL
"His goal is to destroy the Republican Party."
He's a generation late for that. Newt Gingrich made swift work of selling out the Conservative Movement while he was SotH.
It’s not “TDS” for Europeans to be worried about being denied entry - or even detained - at the border, for them to be concerned about being caught up in a violent ICE incident or for them to think twice about going to the US because the President of that nation threatened to invade a European territory.
Of course Trump can advocate for more Europe defence spending. But many Europeans are genuinely concerned if the US would now help in a crisis. Or even be the instigator of a crisis.
People have limited funds and time to go on holiday. Maybe the news out of the US is just enough to make them opt for another destination. Again, not “TDS”.
This must be the least surprising piece of news in a long time. With a constant flow of sporadic tariffs, threat of invasion and ICE agents roaming US city streets this is only the natural result. Has been evident from booking engines reporting 30-40% drop in EU->US searches. Action and reaction
You wouldn't know it from the dearth of award seats, including on nearly empty planes. I haven't been able to find any PE or J seats to Europe in June.
Um, yes it does. Did you not read the article? From the gray box above, a direct quote from Cirium:
This data comes from various third-party sources, primarily Online Travel Agencies and the GDS (Global Distribution System) that airlines and travel agents use. It does not provide booking data information from the airlines directly, and some airlines do not sell through GDS/Online Travel Agencies.
Not that I agree with this, because I do not, but if the same number of people were booking this year but a higher percentage of those were booking direct then Cirium would show a decrease in bookings that does not exist. However, it's far more likely that the split between direct and indirect is approximately the same as last year and that the numbers are, therefore, and interesting indicator.
No story on the Trump Fascist government revoking people's TSA privileges for filming their masked thugs?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/technology/tech-ice-facial-recognition-palantir.html
I think you are missing the point. When you treat your (former) allies with alienation, threats and disrespect then it tend to have consequences. Usually my employee would beg to attend customer meetings and trade shows in the US. These days there are asking not to go.
I’m puzzled, what could cause this? The US has always been such an inviting, friendly place!
Figures the psycho PAL defender Darryl who confuses EWR and JFK doesn't understand the difference in third party and direct bookings.
Saying something on a poll vs actually influencing your purchasing decisions is different. A lot of people buy American owned products without realizing. Most people are not going to do their due diligence to inspect every label, manufacturer, or producer.
That I do not have a solid reason for TBH. Financial uncertainty, costs of visiting, more focus on US destinations,... ?
Tim, you have been cheerleading for the orange guy forever, this post almost seems like you may have second thoughts but can’t quite let go of the criminal grifter.
I very much doubt that "Americans not feeling comfortable in Europe" is the reason for the decline in US-EU bookings. I have never gotten the sense of being unwelcome in Europe, even last year. I think it's more to do with the state of the economy and the value of the dollar. Everyone who isn't comfortably wealthy is worried.
Let's not forget that there were dire warnings about the falloff in demand to Europe this time last year and yet all of the US airlines were profitable for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2025 on their transatlantic networks according to the DOT led by DL which generated over $1 billion in profits
There were certainly some dropoffs in demand and overcapacity pushed fares and profitability down for some carriers; DL earned more than 50% more than UA despite flying less capacity.
Also, there has been a verifiable dropoff of demand by Canadians to the US but it has had minimal effect on US carriers.
Canadian carriers are just flying to different places, in many cases overflying the US with whom they have to share passenger information.
and US carriers can and are flying to other parts of the world. US carrier capacity to Europe is in very slow growth mode this year while there is growth to other parts of the world.
European airlines are far more vulnerable to decreases in European demand to the US than the other way around.
as with all things business, the strongest will adapt and continue to thrive while the weakest will fall off as has been happening w/ airlines around the world for a century
"Consumers will always do what is in their best interest..."
It's difficult to imagine that this would be considered a controversial statement. People will obviously act in their own self-interest. Harold appears to be missing the obvious. Those people who supposedly "mistakenly" chose Delta recognized them as the best option and voluntarily made the purchase. That's the essence of acting in your own "self-interest".
no, I don't cheerlead for anybody.
I am capable of seeing the strengths and weaknesses of everything including about airlines.
He is arrogant, polarizing, rough and alienating but he will accomplish things that should have been done years ago while destroying some things that do not need to change.
The best people don't survive the democratic process to win high office regardless of party or ideology.
What could explain this decrease in transatlantic demand? …. That is easy to answer: I stopped flying to DEN each month.
One of the best ways to identify a feeble mind is to see how quickly they levy a charge of "TDS" against someone they perceive to be an opponent.
So when can I expect to see a reasonable price for AF F class? Clearly this message of downturn has not reached AF's pricing algorithms.
Funny thing is that I agreed w your original post until you got to ‘violent secret police force’.
The majority of Americans say that ICE’s tactics need to change but your description is just not accurate
And Europeans are dealing with very different views of immigration that have changed in part because of US policies.
Hassle about social media is a far bigger threat than what happens in the US internally which doesn’t affect legal visitors
My AF LP canter to SIN recently was fully booked. I saw no discernible difference in J and it looked as if the rear was full to bursting too.
Looked on the AF website recently but no apparent reduction in ticket prices was evident.
I think we need to see the content of the flights. Are premium cabin bookings decreasing? In the end, it is the value of these books that matter. If the rich is traveling more but more poor people are staying in, it should be good for airlines.
"What could explain this decrease in transatlantic demand?"
Take a wild guess...
It's fairly simple. The USD's value is dropping exponentially. The country is increasingly isolated politically, and economically. Gun violence, racism, and a misplaced sense of what the country should be is everywhere. People don't want to visit America, and with good reason. As for traffic to Europe, Americans have always been poor savers. Inflation is rampant. They are not really welcome. Households are mortgaged to the hilt. They can travel to Branson, MO.
Adding to the surge of comments.
No sane person from a foreign country - especially a Latin country - wants to travel to a place where they can be snatched of the street without question, get caught up in a paramilitary standoff, or even just have their phone and social media searched by Customs and Border Control.
Current US policy is outright hostile to visitors and it’s very, very clear we are not welcome.
Quite frankly, so many other countries offer so much more history and beauty it’s very easy to pass on the US. And once we stop coming, it will be a very long time before we trust you enough to want to come back.
Well, one of my 4 night stays has increased by 10% since I booked it a few months ago due to currency fluctuations. That's not great. Trump may push me into prepaid hotel bookings with this dollar devaluation stuff. But that's only part of the story.
I imagine everybody is seeing the same thing: premium cabins are still hard to find, but you can basically trade a six pack of beer for a transatlantic economy seat. We've known for a year that affordability for the bottom 80% of the US has been an issue. The top 10% of earners are 50% of spending. The market has been doing well, so people living off investments or leveraging their portfolio have mobility. But hiring has been stagnant and unemployment among college graduates (those that would buy cheap tickets) is way up in the US. Add to it rising consumer debt...it doesn't take much to figure out that the majority people in the US may plan later, chase deals, or just skip a vacation this summer. It isn't a major slump yet, but belts are tightening to service debt and pay for essentials (we still know that credit scores are on an upswing in the US, which is a good thing).
If the tech bubble bursts (or the PE credit market goes to hell as there are rumbling of), then we can see massive drop in premium demand. Those hoping for good points deals need to be praying for a 40% market correction (to be clear: this would be terrible for our society).
Hopefully it means a nice experience for real people in Europe this summer. Without the infestation of Epstein defenders, Israel sycophants and Trumptards.
This is a minor blog-style-related point, Ben:
You often put things in long form words that would be much clearer in a simple summary table. Like the bullet point list of traffic numbers up/down, you've written out approximately 4x more words than is necessary to clearly convey the information. All the repeated words typed out there "...demand is down x%" on every line, when a table with rows of [city, +/- x%] would clearly show what you're trying to say. The extra words actually force people to search through for the info. I notice you do this also with lots of comparisons of ff program benefits, tier definitions, etc. I almost wonder whether you aren't able to create table format in your posts for some reason.
Anyway, just suggesting, to make your information presented more effective.
I think you're trying to imply that since all major airlines (i.e. the ones flying transatlantic routes) sell via the GDS then Cirium should have all of their data, including the bookings made directly with the airline, but that's just not how it works. I'm not here to explain the minutiae of airline distribution to you (though I could, it's literally my job), so I'll just refer you to the statement from Cirium themselves. They clearly stated that their booking information does not contain direct bookings. Hence, a shift in people's booking patterns from year to year would make a difference in this data. That said, I don't think that's what's happening here.
Politics likely are having some impact, but I think there is a bigger reason for the 14% Europe - US drop that is not politics.
The article is comparing data in July which is when the FIFA WC picks up and knockout rounds start.
Problem is, the main FIFA lottery in which most tickets will be allocated starts announcing results on February 5th. Currently, only 2M of the 7M tickets have actually been sold. There are 150M ticket requests in the lottery, so demand is there.
So most fans do not have tickets and are waiting for the lottery in which they do not know the round, match, or location where they might win tickets. Who is going to book their airfare and accommodation until they have that certainty?
There were ~3M intl visitors expected in the US for the WC - perhaps it doesn't live up to expectations and say only ~2M visit, but if even 50% of those are Europeans that will have a substantial impact on those numbers in the article.
~12M Europeans visit the US every year. If the WC demand spikes as expected, ~0.5-1M Europeans is going to change that -14% substantially.
So let's revisit this in March / April once the tickets are actually sold and people know which games they have tickets to.
All to say not that politics is irrelevant, but this is kind of a really important variable when considering those numbers.
Yep, I am noticing the same with prices here (ex USA), but I am ever hopeful ... I suspect though, that such a small % drop, will not move the needle.
Another factor on the FIFA front is fans are waiting to see if their teams intend on boycotting the event, it’s all very much up in the air.
As a European I have absolutely 0 desire to visit the US given the actions of this administration. But I also feel that there's a certain group of Americans who I really don't want to come over here. Namely those who support this administration and yet feel entitled enough to come over here in spite of that. It's incredibly arrogant.
I told all my friends overseas to avoid coming here until demented psychotic criminal is out of the office. It's not save for them nor anyone here. It's crazy what this corrupted administration does. Super embarrassing.
I cannot speak for all Europeans, but as far as the Brits… well it is diabolical how the government of the UK has allowed immigrant grooming gangs to gang rape young school girls as women. Because the Brits live in such an echo chamber of censored media right now… much of the discontent with this cannot get out.
I am sure rape by these immigrant alien grooming gangs is going on across the entire rest of Europe too.
Liberal left silence on this subject is consent. We in the USA will not stand for it like Europe is seeming to.
Per AI asking for Market research on why Americans are travelling less to Europe. It seems people with a vested interest in money from US tourists have already asked the question and done some research.
Americans are traveling less to Europe in 2025 primarily due to surging costs, with average trip expenses rising 38% over 2024 to over $10,000. High inflation in European destinations, combined with economic uncertainty and a preference for domestic travel, has reduced interest, according to reports from the European Travel Commission (ETC). Key market research findings on the decline include: Soaring Costs: 54% of Americans planning to skip Europe cite high costs (airfare, hotels, dining) as the main deterrent.Declining Sentiment: Intent to visit Europe dropped to 37% in 2025, down from 45% in 2024, the lowest level since 2021.Domestic Alternatives: Many travelers are opting for U.S. destinations, such as national parks, instead of international trips.Economic & Social Factors: Economic uncertainty, shorter holiday times, and concerns about how Americans are perceived abroad are also influencing decisions.Regional Differences: Despite the national trend, 43% of Americans from the Northeast still plan to visit Europe, higher than the national average. While some travelers are seeking more affordable, under-the-radar European destinations like Albania or Poland, the overall trend reflects a pull-back from traditionally expensive European summer vacations.
Not sure why all the top recs are saying Ben missed the Trump angle. He literally writes “ While demand is down most for those originating in Europe, I don’t think that’s too surprising, given politics”. Seems quite obvious what he means, without having to get into long winded political rambling.
But you in the US of A will stand for gun possession, school shootings, racial discrimination, the fentanyl epidemic, police violence etc...
Yup, we got it...
@Not Trump
Ben has written in the article “While demand is down most for those originating in Europe, I don’t think that’s too surprising, given politics”.
Here he indirectly mentions the Trump factor.
I noticed the hyperbole of that too, " violent secret police force" Our political discourse has become silly & full of drama queens. There are valid points on both sides... but nuance of thought is long gone.
As a European, I'm happy to report that I visited the US 3x in 2025 and I plan to do the same in 2026. Just wanted to provide a data point that the paranoid, borderline sociopathic propaganda regarding the US administration doesn't affect us all (although it's still quite widespread among Western Europeans due to an acute lack of critical thinking).
As a European, I'm happy to report that I visited the US 3x in 2025 and I plan to do the same in 2026. Just wanted to provide a data point that the paranoid, borderline sociopathic propaganda regarding the US administration doesn't affect us all (although it's still quite widespread among Western Europeans due to an acute lack of critical thinking).
It's incredible how literally not a single thing in your comment is true. Less CBC consumption is needed.
always amusing to hear Europeans talk about racial discrimination in the US when their entire economic wealth is built off colonial pilfering then pretending they didn't do anything today.
Let us know how blacks do in the poverty-stricken suburbs of Paris or how ethnic Turks are treated as second class citizens in Germany. To say nothing of the epidemic of homeless north African or Syrian young people just wandering the streets of most of southern Europe.
There are plenty of problems in the US, but the lecturing from Europeans is always a bit much.
You make a fair point about accomplishing things and being decisive, but it takes some amazing compartmentalization and twisting of reality to defend the wreckage the MAGA monster has done to our world standing, economy, and freedom of speech. Is the rise of your DAL stock worth all that?
Another aspect of the ramifications of hostile US politics is that Europeans are pissed off at Trump and America in general and have no desire to help foster US policies. I’ve discussed this with close friends especially in Denmark, but also throughout the EU and UK and they are across the board avoiding US travel. They’d rather go to Canada , Mexico , Latin America, Asia and Down Under. I can’t blame them.
On the flip side, although we are avid international travelers, we are increasingly concerned about how we will be received by our colleagues abroad. Although savvy Europeans distinguish between Trump, his hostile policies, and how we Americans feel about international relations, even our friends have acknowledged that many people abroad may not welcome Americans in the current political climate.
As such we are thinking twice before planning travel to Europe at the moment.
Give it time, The airlines are living on hope, but reality will catch up closer to June/summer. That’s where your points will become useful again.
No-one really wants to spend a holiday in a fascist autocracy; how relaxing would that be?
With around a third of the voting public seemingly still supporting this squalid regime, what civilized world citizen would want to risk interacting with those morons, especially those occuppying and abusing positions of power?
The ol' USA is off my agenda for thr foreseeable future.